Good morning, everyone. I'm Joseph Spak, head of US Autos here at UBS. Very pleased to start off a full day of auto meetings with Aptiv. We've got Kevin Clark, CEO, Varun Laroyia, CFO. We're gonna have a little bit of a fireside chat. There's also an opportunity for you to ask questions. You should see a QR code on your table. If you want to ask a question, snap that code, ask a question. It'll pop up magically on this iPad here, and you can ask the question on your behalf. With that, gentlemen, thanks for coming in. You know, I know you recently had a big investor day that talked about the split of the company and the future for both sides of the company, and I wanna spend the majority of our time talking about that.
But just to get some of the other minutia out of the way, I guess, you know, we are basically have three weeks left in the year. You know, you did give a, an outlook, at the end of 3rd quarter that expressed, I think, a fair amount of caution on some of these, industry factors that could impact your, your results. I was wondering if you just, you know, mark-to-market, give us an update on sort of how things have progressed, so over the quarter.
Sure, sure. I'll maybe start, and Varun could.
So, we gave full year guidance or 4th quarter guidance, I guess, effectively, and Q3 earnings during Q3 earnings call. Obviously, it's a dynamic environment that all of you know that we're operating through. As a part of our guidance, we obviously incorporated what we saw from a customer schedule standpoint, you know, overlays as it related to it, additional conservatism for potential supply chain disruptions. We would tell you, things are playing out, but as we expected, in terms of vehicle production rates across the globe, and how that translates into revenue and earnings for us. So high level of confidence in the guidance that we've given, and, you know, we'll finish the year we're confident on track.
Yeah, no, I think that's comprehensive, pretty much on track with what we'd stated, apart from the revenue and the EBITDA OI performing well on cash. We're certainly deploying that.
Okay. So but your guidance did assume, I think, an extra level of caution. So would you say that caution ended up being warranted, or maybe it ended up being more prudent than not?
Yeah, I would say an appropriate level of caution. I mean, the next period of challenges are obviously something you're all aware of, right? Some of the semiconductor potential shortages that are out there. Obviously, there's a large North American OEM that was impacted by a supplier fire in Upstate New York related to aluminum. Some of you may be aware of some of the activities going on in Mexico as it related to farmers and agricultural workers and what they were doing in terms of slowing product shipped across the border. So we've encompassed all of that. It is a very dynamic environment that we're operating in, and we've overlaid an appropriate amount of conservatism in there. We have confidence in our guidance.
It's, I'd say, sitting here today, I'm sure Varun agrees with me, it's difficult to say that we were overly conservative relative to how things would play out. We think we're appropriately conservative.
I know at the analyst day, you sort of gave, you know, mid-term views, and when you report fourth quarter earnings, and I'm assuming January, maybe early February, you know, you'll give the 2026 guide. Is that sort of the approach we should expect you to continue to take, sort of this appropriate level of conservatism, or have you seen some of the uncertainty that has plagued the industry over the past couple of years actually somewhat normalizing a little bit?
I think it's fair to say that, listen, over the past year, there's just been a lot of dynamism that's taken place. You know, early this morning, as we were talking, Joe, there's a new piece that's gonna come in.
Yeah.
While we have kinda predicted it, and we've thought through this piece, you know, early in the year when we talked about the investment of almost $250 million that we were making on semis, including memory. There were a number of people that were talking about, well, what is it that you are seeing? And we just felt that this was the right thing to do. So I think in terms of as we look forward, you know, this perhaps is the new normal.
Yeah.
Right? And, you know, just being agile, nimble, and kinda staying ahead of the curve, we feel good about where we've positioned the company. And then from a bookings perspective, the acceleration versus 2025, we feel good about that.
So let's talk about that topic soon, just 'cause we've got a lot of inbound questions about it as it's been picked up in the media a little bit more about the, you know, potential DRAM shortages and impacting the automotive industry. Maybe you could just again sort of level set for us, you know, how that sort of supply chain works. Are you responsible for getting the memory? Is it sort of direct sourced, directed towards you in some cases? How that works? And then how do you actually see this playing out? Is it really a volume and availability issue, or do you just sort of expect prices to move higher? If they do move higher, what sort of recourse do you have to sort of pass that on through?
And if you have any sense of sort of when this pain point from a timing perspective might really?
Yeah, maybe I'll start. So I think we've been very focused, and I think getting back to the kinda new normal, I think the industry, all industries are doing much better, operating in a dynamic environment. I think we're all much closer connected with our suppliers as well as with our customers. So I think from an industry impact, that's part of what you're experiencing. We're able to respond more quickly. As it relates specifically to Aptiv, you know, the recent news regarding memory capacity and availability post the semiconductor crisis back 2021, 2022, we were very conscious in terms of, and we've been vocal in talking about how do we de-risk. And we've done that through investments in inventory.
You'll see that on our balance sheet, especially in the area of semiconductor chips and SOCs, on validation of multiple sources of product so that we have optionality and flexibility. That's both for quantity of product, but it's also price leverage, quite frankly, to push back when you see constraints, localizing in local markets. We're by and large in China, local for local across our supply base. That does two things. One, it makes us more relevant in the China market, but two, it frees up what we have from a capacity standpoint with our Western suppliers to support our Western customers. We're confident that we're in very good shape as it relates to the balance of this year through 2026 and into 2027. Now, is everyone in the same sort of position that we're in? Probably not. Will there be some tightening?
There probably will be. Could that impact vehicle production? It could. Our current outlook, and we've predicted this, this memory shortage actually going back two years ago. It could, but we'll see. I think the industry will figure out ways to navigate. I think we're in a much better position today than what we were back in 2021, and to identify alternatives for supply, and free up, you know, capacity from a product standpoint. I think it ultimately translates, less of a supply constraint issue, more of a price issue. Our view, it really doesn't affect anyone until 2027. That's as we sit here and look at it, at the situation today, and again, we've de-risked from a pricing standpoint to make sure that we have multiple sources of product contractually, right? And we can play one supplier off another.
Perfect. Let's move to, you know, the spin, the analyst day, the outlook. For simplicity purposes, I'll refer to them as sort of new Aptiv and EDS. New Aptiv, 4%-7% organic CAGR through 2028. That consisted of 10%, I think, in non-auto business. So I wanna sort of disentangle both sides of that, first of all. That means if our math is correct, it's something about like 4% automotive growth, and you sort of said about 1% LVP. Within those businesses specifically, that 3%, you know, outgrowth, and I know you don't like talking about outgrowth anymore, but that let's just call it low- to mid-single-digit, you know, revenue growth. What is that specifically being driven by programs already won, not yet launched?
Is it the sort of the continued ramp-up of programs being won? Any color you could give us on sort of, you know, what sort of driving that and, and by either product or region would be helpful.
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So let me answer the auto side first, right?
Yeah.
I think that's where a specific one is because on the non-auto side, the 8-10, that's pretty much where we are currently tracking in any case in 2025.
Right.
Right?
I wanna get to the non-auto.
We'll get to that in any case. So on the auto side, think of it. It starts with bookings.
The bookings that we have been able to get across all three segments, EDS, ECG, and also Intelligent Systems business, robust bookings coming through. That's point number one. The other two points that I should highlight, and I, and I will, is Active Safety.
We see that to be a mid-single-digit growth. That's number one. The other piece, which we've talked about in the past, is our UX business, which has been lapping for several quarters, certain ramp-down of programs. Those essentially abate early in 2026, and I think that's the other piece to think about because the UX business is growing outside of the ramp-down that's taking place, and that was the piece that I certainly wanted to clarify because that also gets us to that, call it mid- to low-single-digit, upside on from an auto perspective. The final one is what we talked about, software-defined vehicles, zonal architectures, and the entire software side of the auto piece that we've been building up.
So as you think of it from an auto perspective, bookings, number one, Active Safety, you know, mid-single digits, UX lapping.
And then,
Does UX grow, or is it the absence of a headwind?
It actually grows.
Yeah. Okay.
But the growth is being masked by the ramp-down.
I see.
And that's the piece that kinda abates in early 2026, and now then you kinda begin to see that.
Yeah, and how much of the, you know, historical sort of underperformance in China moving to sort of more of an inline-ish number, how much does that sort of contribute to the outlook as well?
So our ECG business performing incredibly well from a China domestic OEM perspective, by far the highest penetration across the three segments. And it's a sizable business, of the almost $4 billion that we do in China. You know, a big business doing incredibly well. Intelligent Systems is the smallest from a revenue perspective. However, they do have a large percentage for China domestic. So if you think of it, penetration of China OEMs starts with ECG, Intelligent Systems, and then EDS. And then EDS, really, I think what we think about is in terms of bookings that are coming through, north of 80% of their new bookings are all with China domestics. Yeah, if I were to, if I were to break it down into big subsets, right, I would say the User Experience EDS business, mid-single-digit growth rate.
If you were to look at electrification across our business units, high single digit sort of growth rate. If you look at China market overall, high single digit growth rate and solid growth across all the businesses to the point Varun mentioned, very strong bookings with local OEMs, over the last two years, especially this year. Strong growth on export platform, not only in China for China, but export platforms out of China, into Europe and Southeast Asia. Very strong growth in India, on new program launches principally. So I would say it's a mix. It, it's a pretty balanced mix between new program launches across all those as well as some, on certain things like user experience lapping the down, the drag that we've had over the last couple of years.
Moving on to the non-auto side, 8%-10%. I know you said that it's been growing about that level. I think, you know, to be candid, I think this is one of the areas where in conversations we've had with investors, there's a little bit of a question mark uncertainty about the ability to sort of continue to grow at that pace. 'Cause and maybe you could just sort of, you know, go through some of the drivers as to what why you think that business can still grow high single digits. Because when you look at, you know, some of the end markets you laid out, right, and I think you, you know, from auto to commercial vehicle, which is really, you know, I think.
Yep.
The closest adjacency to what you're doing. Then you had, you know, A&D and then Datacom. Now, I think if I just look at those end markets overall, you know, Datacom's clearly growing probably faster than that. A&D maybe around there. But again, I think as you sort of go maybe left to right on that chart you put out and sort of how you just described it, like your exposure diminishes. So how are you really able to grow at that level when, you know, the end markets that you have more exposure to outside of automotive, I don't think are expected to grow that fast? It implies share gains or more content, but maybe you could sort of, you know, double-click a little bit more on the.
Share gains, content, market shift.
Yeah.
On our outlook for to your point on commercial vehicle, our revenue growth outlook for commercial vehicle's roughly in line with what the commercial vehicle market will grow from a production standpoint.
Yeah.
With that, with that perspective over the next three years, roughly 4% per year, 5% per year.
Okay.
It's our overall outlook. You look at the balance of our non-automotive business, the principal markets we serve, our aerospace and defense, from a market standpoint, high single-digit growth rate. On top of that, in a market that we treat separately is space, a market growing much faster than that. On the telco side, across the globe, a lot of support of transition to 5G. So I would refer that to, yeah, market growth. It's content growth.
As 5G vRAN, ORAN adoption comes into play. So we're benefiting from that from an overall market standpoint. We've seen very strong growth on the industrial side, especially in the interconnect space. That's probably market share gain, quite frankly, but very strong growth there. And then on the software side, it covers markets that include enterprise, telco, and A&D, where our software revenues today, you know, at a baseline of $600 million are growing roughly 20%.
A year.
That's all through the Wind River?
Yeah, of course. That's, yeah. The bulk of that is today.
Yeah. Okay.
That's where we've achieved it. I'd say we have a very high level of confidence in our ability on the non-automotive side to increase our mix of non-automotive business 2025 through 2028. We made a comment during our investor day about ideally wanting to get to a target where 40% of our revenues are non-automotive related. Clearly that will take a longer period of time post 2030. That will take. A part of that will be organic, and then a part of that will be through bolt-on acquisition, similar to what we've done with Winchester, in terms of building out our product portfolio there.
I think if you look at our guidance, the cash flow efficiency of the RemainCo business with 100% cash flow conversion, we have, you know, we can get to that roughly 35%-40% target, you know, 2030, maybe a little bit later and do that pretty efficiently, effectively, while at the same time returning a fair amount of cash to shareholders.
So, since you sort of, you know, went there and sort of the cash generation and sort of the M&A strategy, maybe, you know, again, like with the spin, looks like you're leverage neutral, you'll generate a good amount of cash at RemainCo. It does seem like you have a true sort of strategic vision here to sort of try to grow that business organically. But maybe you could just sort of talk to us a little bit about how you sort of balance or make the decision between, you know, let's say a share repurchase or an organic.
Yeah. No, it's a great question, and listen, we'll do both. We definitely have the flexibility to do that.
As we look at the M&A opportunities, I would characterize them as bolt-on opportunities in spaces that either strengthen our product portfolio or give us broader market access. I would say those M&A opportunities, quite frankly, more of them sit in that interconnect space. I think from an Intelligent Systems software, those will be more partnerships, maybe investments, that we augment our overall portfolio and bring with other partners' products to market. From an acquisition profile standpoint, there are a couple things. They need to be financially accretive. So they need to diversify our revenues. They need to expand our margins. They need to generate synergies. They need to be easily integrated. They need to increase cash flow generation. So they make the financial profile of the RemainCo continue to make it more and more attractive.
Maybe just to close on RemainCo and then we can move over to EDS for a little bit. But you sort of pointed about 200 basis points of margin expanded there. Can we just go through some of those drivers? I know you sort of talked about manufacturing savings, material cost savings. But I guess, you know, you also sort of provided some of that subsegment color, if you will, between intelligent systems and ECG. Given that I think that the majority of the software is in that IS business, I was a little bit surprised that maybe some of the incremental margins at least implied weren't a little bit stronger 'cause I would imagine that has pretty high flow through.
So what is that just because there's also further reinvestment in that, in that business?
There is.
Or maybe you could talk a little bit about that.
There is. Yeah. Listen, so for the 200 basis points that we talked about from 2025 through 2028, on new Active, three key drivers that is gonna keep it very simple and clearly driven by manufacturing performance. That includes material performance, right? And it's what we've been doing for years with regards to consolidation, and then also just kind of footprint rotation, right? And we kinda see that come through. So that's kinda one key driver. A second one is what we talked about a couple of minutes ago that Kevin elaborated on is just higher margin flow through on the non-auto side, which is going, you know, 8-10 points. That flow through comes through. Within that is the software side of it also, which again, from an Intelligent Systems perspective comes through.
And then the final one is SG&A benefit. Just as we kinda think about the target operating model, how we're kinda working that piece through in serving a new RemainCo business, we've seen benefits on that. We've got plans already in flight at this point of time. You'll kinda see that through essentially kinda getting rid of the stranded cost for example, right, that we called out. The offset to that is the investment in engineering and some additional capabilities to drive the non-auto growth. But that's what kinda clips some of those margins in terms of why is there not a higher flow through. So manufacturing performance, which includes material, that we've been doing in any case, higher flow through on high margin revenue, and then SG&A benefits offsetting some of the investments we're making.
Just on the stranded cost, 'cause I think this was a little bit of a source of confusion in some conversations that I've had with investors. Because the 200 basis points you're talking about, right, that's a 25 estimated number versus a 28 number. So.
Correct.
It's not in the 25 number, but it's also not in the 28 number.
That's right.
In reality, what's gonna happen then is in 2026, which I know you didn't sort of guide to. You will have 70 million, so there will be sort of a step down.
That's exactly right.
Before you sort of recover.
That's exactly right, Josh. You're right. So essentially between 2026 and 2027, we eliminate the $70 million of stranded cost.
Okay.
Right? So when you look at the bookends, 2025, spin hasn't taken place. It's clean. 2028 will be clean.
Right.
Right? And so what we will do is, when we provide guidance, we will give insight in terms of the level of stranded cost that is kinda, you know, weighing on the 2026 margins, for example, and as to how this tests out.
This sort of maybe is a good bridge to sort of EDS as well, but is that $70 million of stranded cost net of any TSA payments you get from?
It's de minimis in terms of for the TSA.
Okay.
So, the overall TSA piece clearly, you know, in terms of separating companies of the size and scale, the vast majority of the TSAs are on the technology side where we're carving out systems. And so that'll take about 18 to 21 months to kinda get through.
Okay.
But that's basically providing a service.
Mm-hmm.
Our technology team has done an outstanding job and just in terms of to ensure we don't end up with stranded cost post the TSA elimination.
Right.
Given the high level of conveyance that we have, with regards to talent, but also systems, we don't see that to be a major problem.
Okay. So let's move on to EDS a little bit here. You pointed to 3%-4% organic growth CAGR. I'm assuming you had a very similar sort of LVP assumption for that business.
It's the same.
Yeah. Same. Imagine that same industry, you know. This has a, I think, a smaller mix of non-auto, but there is some non-auto there. Is that sort of 8%-10% non-auto growth in EDS also what you expect, or can it be a different level?
Slightly, slightly lower. Because again, if you think about 90% of the EDS business is auto.
Yeah.
Right? And the remaining 9%, you know, of the 10%, 90% of the remainder is all commercial vehicles, right? And so as we called out, the fact in terms of commercial vehicle production over that planned period is roughly 4-5 points. The EDS business and their programs that they have and the bookings that they have. They actually get a higher share from a CV production perspective. So that'll be called mid- to high-single digits. So that's where that growth is.
And then the final point is their push into other industries such as robotics, for example, agriculture, construction, some of the other pieces, battery, electric, storage systems. Nascent business, and so it's going from a very low base. So on a growth percentage basis, it jumps up, but it's a small book of business.
But that's why I was sort of curious, like, 'cause I, like, you could sort of paint the picture where actually maybe that growth ends up being a little bit faster because it is a smaller number. You have won some businesses, like you mentioned, on the storage side, which are zero right now. So it's almost all incremental. But.
Yeah. I would say the opportunity there is significant.
Right.
In reality. Just that we're starting at a low point as it relates to power storage as an example, a low point as it relates to robotics. But we have business in that space, and the trends are positive in those areas. And we have the ability to apply a portion of our product portfolio and expertise into those use cases. So we're excited about it. They're just coming off of a smaller number.
Right.
So I think to your point, you can foresee it isn't year one, but maybe it's year three that you have meaningful growth driven outside of the automotive space in that field.
Okay. And the margins at segment also, you know, conveniently 200 basis points of expansion. Here you talked a little bit more about more automation and what's historically been a very labor-intensive portion of the business. You also mentioned, and I think a lot of this is maybe coming from Asia, but correct me if I'm wrong, it's sort of more full service systems, which I think tend to be a little bit higher margin.
Yeah.
Maybe you could just again, Kevin and Varun sort of.
Yeah.
Walk through sort of the drivers of the margin you see in that.
Yeah. I would say the bulk, so there's an element of mix to your point, full service solutions, which I would say it's pretty balanced by region, quite frankly, which is where we tend to do more of the engineering, more of the development, and we have the ability to design solutions that save our customers money and actually optimize our product mix and our profitability. So that's an item. The second is, quite frankly, I'd refer to it as self-help. So it's facility consolidation. It's footprint rotation. It's things that we do actually very well and continue to execute on that plan. I would say that's probably half, if not a little bit more of the overall margin improvement that we have included in our outlook from 2025 to 2028. There's an element of automation.
We're automating some portion of the overall assembly process for wire harnesses. That's taking place across regions. Then there's our typical benefits associated with overhead reductions, SG&A reduction, things like that factor in.
Okay. And then maybe the other side of that stranded cost equation. So SpinCo, right, like the 20-25 estimated number, obviously they're getting their share of allocation now. But then again, in practice, when it's uncommon, they're gonna have a whole bunch of stand-up costs, right?
It's de minimis.
It's de minimis.
It's not even worth talking.
Yeah.
To be transparent.
Talk about. Okay. So that's also a pretty clean 20.
Yeah. It is.
25.
Yep.
Yeah. Okay. And then, capital allocation on the EDS side, you said, you know, a competitive dividend. Is that right out of the gate or?
Yes.
Okay.
Yeah. So throughout the gates, from a balance sheet perspective, I think, as I mentioned, 2.1 gross, 1.8 net. That's what we're targeting throughout the gates. The models that we run, the business's ability to do a regular cash dividend right out of the gates, it's cash generated from day one. Obviously, you know, closer to time, you know, with the appropriate timing and stuff, we kinda call that piece out. But we've modeled in a good competitive dividend, you know, to run from the business. That's the thesis of the business, right? It's a steady growth from a revenue perspective, good margins relative to its competitors, but a tremendous cash generator. And as you think about where that cash gets employed, obviously organic growth, some of the kind of footprint rotation, consolidation side of it, some tuck-ins, potentially.
But the rest of it, given the balance sheet, is gonna be, you know, from a financial metrics perspective, investment grade. But again, you know, given the auto cyclicality and the auto sector and stuff, will be kinda high sub-investment grade. And you kinda saw the ratings agencies delivered there.
evaluation, their assessment on the day of, invest today, you know, the dividend is something which is, you know, easily supported.
It also seemed like part of the rating was, you know, nascency of the business, lack of standalone sort of track.
That's exactly.
But do you? I guess the question is, over time then, do you expect the rating to sort of be that investment grade rating? Or is there a desire to sort of stay, you know, high?
A lot of that would have to be kinda decided by the board and the new management team. The ability for them to kinda step up will certainly be there. I think the question really is, do you really wanna be there or not?
Okay.
In terms of the kinda, you know, flexibility that may be served. I think what we control, and what that board will control are, what do the financial metrics look like? So investment grade credit statistics without a doubt.
Yeah.
Right?
And then we'll see how it plays out with the rating agency.
Okay. Why don't we see if there's any questions? Again, if there are any, use the QR code and we'll see if anything came in here. It's my first time using this, so bear with me. I'm not sure if anyone has a question or I don't know if this works. If there is anyone in the room that has a question, you could also raise your hand. Otherwise, I'll keep going on. I guess, you know, Varun sort of just alluded to this a little bit on the, on the EDS side, consolidation, right? As you survey the, the wiring landscape, let's say, right, like, you obviously have a good idea about your capacity, right? And you've mentioned some of the footprint rotation you, you want to do. At an industry level, how would you classify the capacity?
Because I think, Kevin, like when you, in the initial, you know, call announcing a spin, you sort of alluded to a comment that. This is just an area of the value chain that needs probably some industry consolidation.
Yeah.
Is that maybe you could expand upon that a little bit?
Yeah. I think, to be honest, there are a fair number of areas in the automotive space that could use some industry consolidation. It's one of them. The EDS business is a leader in electrical architecture across the globe. And in every region that it operates, it's either number one or number two. And the margin profile of the business really reflects those. We've talked about the full service sort of solution. Our biz, our ability to design optimized solutions that take weight, mass, cost out of a wire harness, and improve performance for OEM customers. So it saves them money. So they lead and are by far, in a way, the strongest in the industry.
There are a number of players out there who, when you look at the margin profile, it's different than the EDS business. They tend to be build-to-print. So OEMs or maybe in some situations, players like ourselves design a wire harness and from a sourcing standpoint, the OEM decides to go down a build-to-print sort of path with a particular vehicle program. That excess capacity obviously impacts the profile of the industry. And I think there are several of them that if you follow our industry closely over the last five years have been financially troubled and have gone through very difficult times and created difficult situations for our OEM customers.
So I think in this particular space, it's one where you get a lot of customer support to bring expertise like the expertise our EDS business has to certain of those players.
Okay. One housekeeping, which I know has sort of been asked as well. There weren't any, if I recall, any sort of. You gave free cash flow guidance, but there was no sort of CapEx guidance. But we've obviously seen the level of CapEx.
Yeah.
Is there any reason to think it should sort of change meaningfully from what we've seen in either of those businesses?
No.
Okay.
Pretty much in line with our historical CapEx.
Okay. Maybe to close, you know, and turning back to new Aptiv and, I guess specifically with the ECG business, which I know, Kevin, you spent a little bit of time talking about. I'm probably gonna oversimplify this. I mean, I don't know if this is how you think about the business, but the way I sort of think about it is you've got, maybe three groupings. You've got the traditional, you know, power and signal business, which let's be honest, like maybe it wins some business, maybe lose some business, but that's probably more or less growing in line with industry, right? Then you've got the, let's say, electromobility part, which is, you know, obviously in full effect in China, although, you know, given that over half the vehicles are already NEVs, maybe the growth starts slow.
Europe still has some potential. U.S., it seems like it's on pause, right?
So then the last level is, I guess, the maybe let's call it the data connectivity, the high-speed connectivity, and that's where you're sort of talking about the software-defined vehicle, the smart vehicle architecture, the zonal architecture approach. It seems to me, like that's got to be, if I, and again, maybe you disagree with sort of how I bucketed it, but like it, if you follow along my thinking, it seems like that last bucket has to be the biggest growth driver over the next three-to-five years for you to hit this. Is that fair?
Yeah. I think, so high-speed interconnects.
Yeah.
I don't know. Product areas like that are amongst the fastest growing. Our general view from a global standpoint is, electrification continues. It may not be full, full battery electric vehicles depending on region. That is a driver of incremental growth.
To the extent there's more content going into the car, that requires any sort of power, that is more growth for the interconnect business. You're right. There's certain areas now that if it's just power distribution that grow at vehicle production. But net, you know, I think you look at the growth of our ECG business within automotive, you know, is a mid-single digit sort of grower with 0% - 1% vehicle production growth rate. That's how it plays out. It's a business that, or a sector that as you transition to what we refer to as smart vehicle architecture, whether that's central vehicle controllers or zonal controllers, the reality is, weight, mass comes out of, you know, copper comes out, but more interconnects actually go in, right? You benefit. That business benefits from that trend.
So, you know, whether it's in automotive, we're obviously excited about that business and how it's positioned. It's the number two player there. I'm sure everyone here knows who the number one is. We're growing significantly in commercial vehicle. I'd say that's due to focus and expansion of our product portfolio, which will continue. And then we have a number of great opportunities outside of automotive.
And just on that, you know, Smart Vehicle Architecture, there's obviously been a little bit of a delay. There's been programs that have been canceled mainly because they were electric, not maybe not necessarily because they were Smart Vehicle Architecture, but and look, I think some of the companies probably sort of had some challenges even sort of getting some of those 1st generation architectures out 'cause it is a big change. But in your conversations with your customers, do they realize the importance of this? Is this still sort of a full force? And as we get to, let's say, 2030, end of the decade, do you expect, you know, most of the new programs to come out to sort of have some sort of zonal?
Yeah. From an industry so five years ago when we started talking about it, the question was, you know, where was the industry going to head in this direction? I think there isn't an OEM that you talk to, across the globe that this is the path they're on, some faster than others, some starting and stopping over a period of time. So it certainly is the trend, and we think you'll see the benefits of that in our revenue line. Unfortunately, not as fast as what we had expected three, four years ago, but end of the decade, you'll see some benefits. I think we talked about it in our investor day in terms of our funnel of opportunities on Smart Vehicle Architecture. Sitting here today, it's over 20 OEMs and I think close to $20 billion of lifetime revenue.
So, it's definitely we're working with more OEMs now than what we were three years ago.
So it's certainly a trend that we benefit from.
And even here in North America where maybe some of the electrification, like the zonal approach or central approach, still is the path they're taking even if they stay in combustion.
Yep.
Okay. I think we're about at time. So, gentlemen, thanks for.
No, thanks, John.
Thanks for coming. Really appreciate your time.
Thanks for having us.
No, we appreciate your time.
Thanks, gentlemen.
Yes.
Thank you.