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Goldman Sachs 2023 Financial Services Conference

Dec 6, 2023

Speaker 3

Thanks, everybody, for joining us. We're excited to get started with our next session. Please help me welcome Mike Arougheti, CEO of Ares Management. At nearly $400 billion in AUM, Ares has been consistently one of the fastest-growing companies that we cover, aiming to grow fee-related earnings at over 20% per year, and has been successfully delivering on that goal over the years. With deep expertise in private credit across a wide spectrum of products, Ares remains one of the biggest beneficiaries of structural changes unfolding in the lending markets today. So plenty for us to cover. Always a pleasure to have you here.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Great to be here.

Speaker 3

So welcome.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Appreciate it.

Speaker 3

So let's get started. I mean, the first question, probably not surprisingly, is gonna be on private credit and really the allocation trends that we're seeing in the marketplace. And the way I would love for you to frame that is, institutions still feel like generally early in that journey, maybe not so much in direct lending, but even in direct lending feels like there's some room.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Mm-hmm.

Speaker 3

If you talk to your largest institutional LPs, what's their allocations to private credit today? How would you frame the incremental upside?

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Yeah, it's interesting 'cause private credit, I still think, is in the early innings, both sub-investment grade and high grade. Large global TAM, more developed in the U.S. markets, growing in Europe, almost completely undeveloped in APAC, LATAM, Africa, et cetera. So when you're thinking about this multi-decade journey that we're all on, private credit is an exciting thing to talk about, and we need to unpack exactly where the opportunity set is. Direct lending, I think, is getting a lot of attention-

Speaker 3

Sure

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... 'cause it's probably the easier thing for people to understand.

Speaker 3

Been around longest.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

It's been around the longest. If you're an investor in other parts of the alts ecosystem, like private equity, it's an easy thing to get your head around, to understand how to take risk in the same company at a different attachment point. So it's hard to paint with a broad brush, you know, where are people in their private credit allocation journey?

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

But I would say generally, almost to an institution, it is increasing. And it is increasing because you have these long-term secular shifts that are happening, in terms of the growth in private markets relative to the growth in public markets. It's accelerating now because of the cyclical opportunity and the relative value opportunity in the private credit markets relative to the equity markets. And so the way I would describe it, if you looked across the entire market, you probably have about 3% average allocation to private credit. At least that's what the consultants would tell you. This is institutional.

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Not even touching on, I think, retail demand-

Speaker 3

Sure

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

for private credit.

Speaker 3

We'll get there.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

and, you know, most people will tell you that that probably has room to get to 10. So think of it as an opportunity to triple the allocation. Some of that will be people coming into direct lending, corporate direct lending, in different parts of the globe. And then for those that have been doing it a long time, we're actually seeing a willingness, now that they're comfortable with the drivers of value on the corporate side, they're moving into real estate, private credit, infrastructure, private credit, alternative credit-

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... you know, all of the different flavors.

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Because once you understand where the value gets created in terms of origination, scale, flexibility, et cetera, you, you see those patterns starting to show up in other parts of the credit space, and that's when they start to move in. So it's a pretty broad-based shift, but it's not the same story for, for each investor.

Speaker 3

Sure. No, and by asset class, also-

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Right

Speaker 3

... quite different. So look, you mentioned that, the secular story and the secular growth in private markets and private credit has been, in a way, exacerbated by the cyclical things that happen. And obviously, what's happened in the bank space, is one of those elements-

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Mm-hmm

Speaker 3

... that's probably driving the increased appetite to do more things in this part of the market. We've seen a number of alternative managers talk about partnering with banks and looking at opportunities that banks' balance sheet could provide to alt managers. How do you think about that opportunity for Ares, and are there particular aspects of the bank lending market today that are more susceptible to private managers coming in and taking a bigger chunk of that business?

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Yeah, again, it's gonna depend on the bank, and it's gonna depend on the private investor. But I've been very vocal, and I'm gonna say it again here: the banks are some of our most important valued partners, Goldman Sachs included. We do certain things that banks can't do just based on structural differences, right? Banks are 10-13 times levered. They take, you know, retail deposits. They have to manage that theoretical asset liability mismatch. The regulatory capital framework forces a certain type of behavior. You know, in certain parts of the world, obviously, there's a policy overlay. We're unlevered. We don't have a policy over... You know, so we, we-

Speaker 3

Yeah

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... coexist, and we do different things, but when you really lean into the partnership, there's a lot that you can do together, and I think it's important that people understand that the banks are in the private credit business. They always have been. They're the original private credit providers.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

They're owning them on balance sheet, or they're lending to portfolios of loans that we originate.

Speaker 3

Sure.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

And that's always just a function of what's the regulatory capital framework, right? And where is it kind of best suited. So I only want to start there because when you see the types of things that we're doing now in partnership with the banks as they're navigating the new regulatory capital frameworks and some of the structural challenges that got unearthed in this rate environment, it's incredibly constructive, right? And it takes the form of, for the regional banks: Can we buy a portfolio of loans for you, from you at an appropriate price to help you with liquidity? Can we do a risk transfer trade with you to help free up some reg cap for you to deploy into another part of your business that's more important?

Can we create a private sidecar to your balance sheet to help you monetize your customer relationship in a way that works for you because you're not ready to divest of a business that you still think is, is core? And by the way, the same thing's happening with the large banks, too, right? Which is you have huge global origination networks direct to companies and in markets that we don't touch. And so we're having so much productive conversation there, too, just about how do we align bank origination with private capital. So it's, it's a really exciting time in terms of the, the synergy between the banks and the non-banks, and so I think the narrative of the non-banks competing with the banks is a little bit-

Speaker 3

Right

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... you know, incendiary 'cause it's-

Speaker 3

It sounds great-

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

It sounds great.

Speaker 3

As a headline, but yeah. No, I hear you. So-

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

I didn't just say that for you, though, Mike, by the way.

Speaker 3

So let's stay on this topic a little bit, maybe broaden it out, to capital deployment broadly when it comes to credit. And I know it's gonna be also hard to generalize because you guys do a lot of things in credit, up and down the capital structure, and liquid to liquid. But as you look at the outlook for deployment into 2024, what are your sort of early thoughts? And that could be both in terms of direct lending and more bank-related deals and structures and trades, really, that you can do.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

I think the different businesses we have, sometimes the way to think of it is they just work in opposition to one another.

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Right? So if you look at 2023, M&A volumes were low. Private equity was not as active, so the new transaction volumes were down. I think for the market, they were down close to 40%.

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

For our corporate loan business at Ares, it was probably down 20%. So you feel the effect of that. Now, the flip side of that is you're not getting refinanced and defending your existing book, so your net exposures are not as impacted. But on the other side of the house, the opportunistic credit funds turn on, the secondary solutions funds turn on, the NAV lending funds turn on.

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

So when we look at deployment, as we've grown and diversified and scaled, you're just seeing less volatility-

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... in the deployment pace. It's just a question of geography. Where, where is it happening? And so when I look at what is happening in the world today, I would say generally, the great recapitalization is, is the theme, right? You have all of these owners of assets and companies that are high quality, that are either over-levered, or they paid too much for them, but they're fundamentally really high-quality businesses and, and assets. And they need some non-dilutive form of capital to extend the duration of their ownership, so that they can ultimately recoup the value lost from the rate hikes.

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

I think everyone kind of intuitively knows that, but that is a significant amount of installed capital that, even in the absence of new M&A transaction volume, will keep all of us very busy for a very long time. And that's largely where the focus is going to be. But what's unique about 2024, we're already seeing the M&A pipeline pick up through Q4, and I would actually expect it to happen in Q1. Because while you still have this, you know, installed universe of companies and assets, you also have, at the same time, a significant amount of dry powder that's aging, that needs to get invested. And now that we have, let's say, rate stability, and a better shared view on what the inflation outlook is, people now can kind of start to box the variables around transactions.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

And so I think we're gonna be in this really unique moment where we're gonna see opportunistic flow continuing, and the new, new transaction market open up, where usually it's one or the other.

Speaker 3

Mm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

I'm actually cautiously optimistic that 2024 is gonna be pretty active on both fronts.

Speaker 3

Great. Well, it's great to hear. Let's hit on credit quality. It's clearly top of mind. We've heard from a bunch of banks over the course of the last two days as well, and that's very topical. When it comes to private credit, there's the narrative, and then there's the reality. I think one of the things that's been out there recently is some rating agencies talked about, you know, only the fact that higher quality companies will tend to borrow in public markets, and it's only lower quality companies that'll go to private markets, which, you know, I think I know what your answer to that is gonna be, but curious how you respond to that. But more importantly, what does the credit cycle look like for private credit as we're eventually gonna go through one?

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Yeah. So I clearly disagree, and I've been doing this a long time, and that narrative has been in the market since 2003, when people first started thinking about this. And the numbers don't prove it out. If you look at default rates, loss rates, total return, you know, there's no evidence that would suggest there's incremental risk in the private market versus the public market or the private market versus the bank market. And we could debate why that narrative is out there-

Speaker 3

Yep

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... you know, at a different point in time. The other thing I would highlight, and I think this is so important to get through to people, is that if you look at the private credit markets as they exist today, the bulk of the exposures, not the number of investments, the bulk of the capital exposures are in capital structures with real institutional cash equity-

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... that came in with a view on value below the private credit loan. And the reason that is so important is because the size of that equity commitment, it is a fundamental risk mitigant to the private credit exposure. It's the likes of which we have never really seen before, and I'll come back to that because I think that is probably the most important takeaway. But in terms of companies, I think it's important. If you look at syndicated loan market, I'm gonna just make the math easy, call it $1.5 trillion.

Speaker 3

Right.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

High-yield market, $1.5 trillion. Private non-bank credit market, pick your number, $1 trillion. About $700 million is in the ground. Banks, they own $3 trillion of commercial loans. They own another, you know, $5 trillion of real estate loans.

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

All of these companies are kind of broadly distributed into these markets, some rated, some non-rated.

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

If you actually look at the credit experience and the returns, private credit has outperformed each of those through every cycle. We've gone and looked and said: Okay, what is the company—what does a company look like in the Ares portfolio? So today, in our U.S. corporate portfolio, and you can see this in our BDC book, weighted average EBITDA in our portfolio is $300 million. EBITDA.

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Right? Which means that this is a company that is probably $3 billion-$6 billion of enterprise value. That's a real company-

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... that could clearly go to the liquid markets, but is choosing not to for a reason. The average EBITDA is $160 million. Okay, if you look at the U.S. economy, I think there's 18-20 million private companies.

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

I think there's 20,000 of them that have revenue in excess of $100 million.

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Okay. We have investments in approaching 1,000 of them. We look at 2,000 or 3,000 per year. So at least from where I'm sitting, I'm looking at a universe of companies that says the top, the top 10% of companies in this, in this country have revenues in excess of $100 million, which means that they probably have EBITDA of $10 million, and I have a portfolio that's 10-15 times that. And I only say yes to 5% of the deals that I see in any given year.

Speaker 3

Right.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

So that to me says, I think I'm investing in the top 1%-5% of the available companies in this economy. Like, why wouldn't I-- why wouldn't I want that? And so that, to me, just flies in the face of this idea that the private companies that we lend to are somehow fundamentally riskier. I, I actually think that some of the companies in other parts of the market are fundamentally riskier. They may be lower levered-

Speaker 3

Right

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... but they may not be as high quality. So that's an important thing, just to say, like, when you really cut through, what, who are these companies?

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

They're coming to us because it's a better value proposition. That's it, right? It's and they're willing to pay for that.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

But the loan-to-value piece, I think, is important, too, because if you then just do the math, $300 million of weighted average EBITDA, $150 million of actual EBITDA, and you say that a private equity sponsor bought that company for 15 times, and we lent him or her six turns of credit with a 40% loan to value.

Speaker 3

Right.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

They wrote $1 billion of equity into this company. We could argue if the company's now worth 900 or-

Speaker 3

Yeah

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... 1,300 or, you know, but it's not worth 40% of what it was worth a year ago while it's growing. And, and I'm just... If you are anxious about losses in private credit, then you should be anxious about losses in private equity.

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

If you're anxious about losses in private equity, you should be anxious about everything that you own in your portfolio. And I'm, I'm not saying that to be-

Speaker 3

Right

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... you know, cavalier, but, like-

Speaker 3

Right

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... that is a real problem.

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

And so when you think about it just through the stability mechanism of a lender and an owner with a shared view on value... And by the way, if the company underperforms or they have trouble making cash interest payments, you resolve it.

Speaker 3

Right.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Right? So by the way, that's a default.

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Doesn't mean that we lost money. That just means rates went up.

Speaker 3

Right.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

And so I think when all is said and done, it always takes a cycle for more people to get comfortable with this. You may see elevated defaults. It doesn't necessarily mean that you will see elevated losses, and I think the private credit markets, once again, will prove to have been a stabilizing mechanism because of the value of that bilateral relationship and the value of that equity subordination. In the GFC, that vintage, we were probably 70% loan to value, not 40.

Speaker 3

Hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

That's a different setup, because now if I'm looking at a counterparty and they put $0.30 to my $0.70, and they don't know if it's worth $0.70, they're gonna walk away.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Now I have a different set of issues. Again, we know how to make money in those situations, but walking away from $0.60 of equity in a performing company is really hard.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

And so I just encourage people, you know, just think through that relationship and who's incentivized to do what, rather than, you know, just digest the idea that credit risk is everywhere, and we're gonna lose money, 'cause I just don't think that it's true.

Speaker 3

Yep. Well, fair enough. Another higher level question for you is around regulation, before we move on from the private credit topic. To an extent, where private lending, and I want to use the word lending, as opposed to just private credit-

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Mm-hmm

Speaker 3

... broadly, right? Because as we talked about, there's lots of things that could qualify for that, moves away from the banks. The regulators are clearly paying attention. It's not particularly clear what they're looking to do with that, other than it's just a focus. As a large participant, a large manager in this market, how do you deal with the regulatory uncertainty? What would your response to regulatory change would be? Because, again, it feels like there's a bunch of unknowns on that front.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Well, there's always unknowns. I would start with the simple statement that we are heavily regulated. We're just not Fed-regulated, but we're regulated by the SEC, the FSA, the MAS, the CFTC. Certain parts of our business are regulated by FINRA. Certain parts of our business are regulated by the State Insurance Commission. So, like, we're regulated.

Speaker 3

Right.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

We're just not a bank.

Speaker 3

Right.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

So we gotta start there because when you say we're not regulated, it's just not. It's not true. Number 2, I go back to what I said to you earlier, we're taking a different set of risks for a different set of clients in a different set of structures than other people are. So I argue, as an American, and as someone who, that practices in the capital markets, if you have a levered structure-

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... with an asset liability mismatch, you should have a lot of risk governors on.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

If you are unlevered, and you're match funded, and you don't have a mismatch, then you should have more degrees of freedom. Generally, I think most people, including the regulators, understand that.

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

And so I don't know exactly what the regulatory overlay would be, and there's this idea that there's a lack of transparency in private credit, and I would say, "Well, to who?

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Right? So the banks that lend us money, they have perfect transparency, and therefore, the Fed actually sees the loans that are against the loans that we make.

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Our investors have perfect clarity into the risks that we're taking on their behalf, more so than if they were buying public securities.

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Right? They're getting monthly financial information in line item detail on what they own. So again, this idea of, like, transparency, I would also say, to who?

Speaker 3

Right.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Like, who needs it and why? And the more transparent we can be in terms of the types of risks we take on behalf of our clients, great!

Speaker 3

Right.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Right, I mean, that's. We don't have any problem with that. So, I think a lot of this, like it always does, is just gonna come down to increased disclosure-

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... increased education of all the, you know, market participants. But I don't know what the regulatory construct would be, frankly, to manage the relationship between an asset manager and a private client-

Speaker 3

Right

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... a sophisticated institutional client. I think when you get into the world of insurance, different regulatory paradigm. Get into the world of retail-

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... different regulatory paradigm, for the right reasons. But we'll deal with it. If it happens, you know, we'll deal with it because I think at the end of the day, the capital markets are efficient, and the capital will find its way to the places that it needs to get to.

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

If we have an increased regulatory burden, then I do think that's gonna favor the larger managers who can afford to comply.

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Like we've seen in other parts, that would probably mean that the cost of capital goes up, even if it shouldn't, but it would, and then-

Speaker 3

Yeah

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... we all have to deal with that. We have to deal with that too.

Speaker 3

We're seeing that sort of consolidation in pretty much every other financial services vertical, where the larger companies just get larger on the back of that.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Yeah

Speaker 3

... kind of regulatory regime.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

I think that's right.

Speaker 3

Yeah. All right, let's talk about fundraising, a little bit. So Ares is having clearly a very successful year fundraising. I think you're $53 billion in for the first three quarters, expected to raise over $65 billion for the full year. With that backdrop, let's talk a little bit about 2024, as you kinda—especially as you wrap up the two larger credit funds, the two-

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Mm-hmm, mm-hmm

Speaker 3

... flagship credit funds you have in the marketplace right now. What are some of the expectations for fundraising next year?

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Yeah, we haven't gone through the full budgeting process, and the only reason I don't, like, A, I can't give you the forward-looking information, but, B, some of it is gonna depend on how we close up this year, 'cause as you highlighted, we have a number of large funds that are in the market that will cross over a little bit into next year. But we've had a very successful year with a number of flagships getting to the hard cap. I think we were 53, 54, to your point, through September.

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

We were closer to 58-60 through October, and now it's just a question of what's gonna be the year-end cleanup-

Speaker 3

Yeah

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... and some of that will find its way into 2024.

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

The good news is, we have another, you know, handful of what we all call these flagship funds coming into the market in 2024. Our sixth infrastructure debt fund, our third opportunistic credit fund, our third junior capital fund. We're still raising our seventh buyout fund.

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

So there's gonna be ample things on the institutional side. And then what we're seeing year-over-year is the floor, meaning the minimum, is going up because we now have a number of traded and non-traded retail products that are continuously offered. We have a number of open-ended products that are obviously continuously offered. You know, if the CLO market ever comes back, things like that obviously contribute to the growth. So it's always gonna be range-bound.

Speaker 3

Yep

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... but the size of that range is narrowing. I think we'll have an opportunity to put the number into the market in the new year once we see what we close and we have a general sense for allocations. But I think based on the performance and the underlying funds and the nature of the discussions we're having, I'm optimistic 2024 is gonna be another great fundraising year.

Speaker 3

Great, perfect. Well, let's talk about the wealth management channel. It's an important driver, strategically for you guys, over the next couple of years, and you've, you know, you've obviously made a lot of progress there. You've launched non-traded BDC now, ASIF. It's off to a pretty good start. I think it's run rate about $150 million-$200 million per month, since July, and I believe you're on a single wirehouse so far. So let's talk a little bit about how you are broadening out distribution of the existing product, and what else perhaps you have in the pipeline, and kinda how you think about rounding out the wealth footprint.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Yeah, it's important. We are very focused on building the product and the capability there, and I think we have a very good head start. And I think that similar to other parts of the market, that market is consolidating quickly as well, you know, as the large platforms, I think, are looking for folks like us who can bring brand, product, performance, scaled wholesaling capability, scaled client service capability-

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

continuing education for their advisors. And what we are, to your point about product, I think they also want a family of funds, so that as that brand relationship builds and grows, there's economies of scale for everybody, and we're well on our way. We have 125 or so people in our wealth management business. We are active with one of our products on, I believe, close to 45 different platforms, wires, RAs, et cetera. And the goal is you broaden out the product, and then you penetrate the different channels. So to your point on ASIF, which is our non-traded BDC, we launched that in the channel in August. It's up to about $2.7 billion as of last reported.

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

On the one wire, to your point, it's been about 150-200 a month. And then we're gonna add new platforms into 2024 and continue to scale that.

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

We almost have a full product set, which is actually kind of a nice place to be, as you just-

Speaker 3

Mm

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Think about the touch points with the channel. We have two non-traded REITs.

Speaker 3

Right

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... both at scale.

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

And unlike some of our peers, actually net inflows for the year. So while those aren't growing the way they were a year ago, on a relative basis, we've actually had a positive experience in the channel in 2023. We talked about the non-traded BDC. We have a diversified credit fund that's crossed over $4 billion in AUM and is now, you know, meaningful size and continuing to raise. We launched something that we call the Private Markets Fund-

Speaker 3

Mm

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

which is actually interesting. It's a private equity secondaries product. We put that into the market earlier in the year. It's ramping, and it's starting to hit a nice inflection point in terms of its size and the breadth of the distribution relationships. And we launched a European private credit vehicle-

Speaker 3

Mm

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

to complement the non-traded BDC in the U.S. So that's seven products, almost all of which are scaling, you know, at scale.

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

I think that scale is important because, again, the proposition to the retail client is institutional quality management, institutional brand, institutional performance, and institutional scale into the retail market.

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

So, you know, I do think there's gonna be a move to fewer managers with larger funds. Even though these are semi-liquid, I think that scale is important to navigate the liquidity needs of the client.

Speaker 3

Great.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

So we're excited about where we are.

Speaker 3

Great. Let's talk a little bit about another strategic priority for you guys, which is the insurance channel. I think it's about $11 billion in AUM today, through your partnership with Aspida. You have plans and targets to get that to $25 billion by the end of 2025.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Mm-hmm.

Speaker 3

Aspida had some nice improvement in your organic growth, and that's something we've talked about-

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Yep

Speaker 3

in the past as well. So, let's spend a minute on your outlook for organic growth at Aspida from here. Any early thoughts on DOL and the impact that could have on them-

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Mm

Speaker 3

- with respect to distribution of fixed annuities?

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Yeah, so it's doing exactly what we want it to do. We're on track for the $25 billion. The organic engine has been built and is delivering exactly the way that we want it to. The reinsurance side of the business is also well developed. We've got a great series of seeding relationships there, and that's growing. Given what we're able to do on the asset and liability side, I think it's quite unique that we can grow organically the way that we're growing without any, you know, any legacy.

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Right? We kind of have this de novo, fully tech-enabled life co that is a nice complement to what we do on the, on the credit side, but we've been public. Our, our ambitions for that company are, are less than some of our peers-

Speaker 3

Yep

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... just in terms of the over-indexing to insurance.

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

It's an important part of the business, but it's not the business.

Speaker 3

It's not the business, right?

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

You know, and part of that is just, again, back to diversification of the client base and the funding base, because we have $50 billion of our $400 billion of AUM is with third-party insurance partners.

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

And they're valuable partners to us, and then we think about them, you know, similar to the way we think about the affiliate. So I think it's on track, if not maybe even ahead of pace. Capital raising is going well there, as we've talked about. Third-party equity, we're using third-party equity. Obviously, we have a meaningful commitment in it, but when all is said and done, we will be a minority investor-

Speaker 3

Yep

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... in that platform, obviously, with the benefits of the affiliation. DOL, you know, that's been around now for, gosh, seven or eight years already. When it first came out in 2015, 2016, nothing materialized. I think largely that's conversation around commission rates and high commissions, which is not really the way that we approach-

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... the business, so it's something that we're digesting and monitoring.

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

But at least in terms of the product set that we have and the distribution model that we utilize, it's not something that I'm terribly concerned about.

Speaker 3

Got it. Doesn't sound like you-

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Yeah

Speaker 3

losing too much sleep over that. Let's talk about your financial targets. So at your Investor Day a couple of years ago, which I think you guys did it here. I think you might have done it here.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

We did!

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

It was so.

Speaker 3

It was like that was a post-COVID-

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

It was like a post-COVID-

Speaker 3

I was looking around. I couldn't-

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Yeah, we were all actually looking more casual than that, but than this. But, you know, I, I vaguely remember that.

Speaker 3

So you said the targets, FRE growth of over 20% per year through 2025 and getting to a 45% FRE margin.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Mm-hmm.

Speaker 3

The opportunity set back then was good, but I would argue the opportunity set for private credit today is better than it was, when you set these targets.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Mm.

Speaker 3

Talk to us a little bit about how you envision sort of sustainability of these targets beyond 2025, and if there could be upside to them.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

... Good news is we're gonna have another investor day May of next year, and-

Speaker 3

Right here again?

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

No, I think we're doing it at the same region. But we'll update that.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

So it's time, right?

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

I think we've executed well against all of those goals. I think when we set the targets, people thought that they were pretty ambitious, and I think we've delivered on them.

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

I agree with you that the strength of the business, the diversification, the scale, you know, the breadth of capability, the number of investors, there's a lot that exists here now that we've built organically and inorganically, that did not exist in 2021.

Speaker 3

Mm-hmm.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

We're gonna have to take a step back and really look at just the development of these markets and then say, but that'll be, you know, pretty soon when we'll come out and refresh as we get close to the end of the first set of guidance. But, you know, I, it's a fun time to be in our business because we said you've got these huge secular tailwinds that are still at play.

Speaker 3

Yep.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

At this specific moment, you just also have this big cyclical opportunity, and I think we've been fortunate with good performance. We're now going into this vintage, which I still think is going to be one of the great vintages with $100 billion of dry powder. And, you know, for our size and our market position, that's gonna be very, very differentiated.

Speaker 3

Yeah, very powerful. Great. Couple of minutes on the clock. If anybody has questions, just raise your hand and we'll get a mic to come around. Yes, one in the middle there.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi. You mentioned geographies in the beginning, and I think you've opened a presence in Tokyo and a Brazilian partnership now. So could you just elaborate a little bit on geographically, how you think about distribution and strategies that could be relevant?

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Sure. Our goal over time will be to have the full product set in each of the relevant geographies, but the markets are developing at a different pace, which is just a commentary on the state of the bank market, regulatory framework and creditor rights, adjacent capital markets and the depth and breadth of those markets. So a lot of what you'll see us doing is gonna be a reflection of where we think the market is in its development. You know, if you look at Europe as an example, we moved into Europe in earnest in about 2006, and it was credit led. We began to see the developments of the private credit market there, and now we're fully developed. So if it's a strategy that Ares runs, it's in Europe.

We're now similarly making that push into APAC. It is still credit led, but up until this point, it has been largely opportunistic credit led, just because those markets are less developed. There's less regulatory certainty in those markets, and so, you know, a higher risk, higher return strategy was appropriate. But even in the, you know, five years that we've really been building that business in earnest, we're already beginning to see a maturation of certain markets like Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and even India now, where some of the more traditional products that we manage are relevant. And so for us, it's more about the investment side than the fundraising side. You know, we have very entrenched fundraising relationships in that region, and now it's about, you know, bringing the capability.

So I think the first market that you'll see scaling out of the ones we're not in is gonna be APAC, broadly. LatAm is a good example of a market that is not quite ready for prime time for us. But we're beginning to see some of the patterns emerge again that would tell us that the private markets will continue to grow, particularly private credit, and you're also beginning to see changed investor behavior, right? Just as a quick, you know, quick example, Mexican pension funds, up until recently, were not actually able to invest aggressively outside their home market. Now they can. You're seeing little things that are beginning to show that the central banks, governments, pension, you know, regulators, are beginning to open up to market participation.

So what we chose to do there was to actually invest in that opportunity early through our partners at Vinci, who we've known for, gosh, a dozen years. We think they're as good as it gets in that market. They've got local relationships. They understand the cultural nuances of doing business there, and we'll learn through that partnership as they'll learn from us. And then I think when we see that the market is developed, that's when we would do something else. So I think you're, you know, it's really gonna be a function of how evolved is the opportunity set relative to what we do? How open is that market to third-party capital?

Because in a lot of these places, it's just when you factor in inflation, currency, you know, and regulation, it's hard to say that it jumps off the page as a great rel val, but it will, and we want to be first. So that's, you know, that's kinda how we're thinking about it.

Speaker 3

Great. Well, thanks for the question. I think we're at time. So, Mike, thank you so much for being here.

Mike Arougheti
Co-Founder, CEO & President, Ares Management

Thank you. Appreciate it.

Speaker 3

It was great to talk to you.

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