and COO International, Chris Garside, head of M&A and BizDev, I think at International. I think to start, Tom and the team have some opening remarks to make, and then we'll move on to the Q&A. Fireside.
Well, thanks, Leo, I appreciate it, and thanks for everyone for being here today. We did want to go through a little bit of an update on the back of the Vestis CMD a couple of days ago, and sort of update our, you know, our Analyst Day disclosures from a couple of years ago. I want to emphasize there's absolutely nothing new here. So, this is, it's just sort of a reconciliation of where we've been and wanting to keep the string attached to certainly what Kim and the team talked about a couple of days ago, as well as the questions we've been getting about what does that mean for RemainCo and for the food and facilities business going forward? So first, a little state of the business.
Certainly at this point, you know, top-line results, you know, continue to reflect our, our commitment to, to growth and the growth mindset, and the culture that, that, you know, John and the team have worked hard to put in place over the last few years, you know, as we've gone through the, the, the pandemic and, and now emerged. AOI is being driven certainly by, the fundamentals that we've talked about before, including supply chain, you know, new account maturities. We ramp up to a cruising speed. We, we do have the, the, the situation right now where we have this price-cost lag in a couple of our businesses, that's, you know, continuing to make progress as we finish this year and move into next year.
And then just a maniacal, you know, management of above unit cost and making sure we contain those. We continue to accelerate the leverage, the reduction of leverage, most notably through the sale of AUS this year, pay down the debt. And again, as you guys saw, or many as you saw on Wednesday, Kim and the team presenting their vision for the uniform business over the next few years, and I know they're excited to sort of finally be at the starting gate and get going.
But I do want to talk through this, what we're calling a halftime review. We're, believe it or not, two years into or past the Analyst Day in December of 2021, and sort of refresh everybody on where we are and what it means going forward as we separate the businesses going into the new FY 2024. So a little bit of review of the first half of the 4-year Analyst Day. You know, we've moved things forward. We're very pleased with the progress we've made. I mean, revenues are up 50% from 2021, and you can see the leverage throughout the business on the bottom line with growth, you know, nearly 7 times what the top line is on the bottom line.
Margin has expanded from the low of 2.5, 250 basis points, roughly, and another roughly 75 expected this year. We continue to see that obviously going to progress as we move into the next couple of years of the plan. EPS moving forward and leverage coming down as we talked about. So that's what we've accomplished. Very proud of the teams and what they've done at this point, and you know, much more to come. So to take you back on this top line to December 2021 in the Analyst Day, these numbers should be familiar to everybody.
You know, we put together as a total company, including uniforms, obviously, these targets, $20 billion, 7%-7.5% margin and implied dollar AOI, EPS and leverage targets. We've done a few things internally, decisions over the last couple of years that have modified those numbers, and then on the next slide, I'll show you a few external things that have modified the timing, most notably inflation and interest rates. But if you look at the, Kim talked to this on Wednesday, roughly $25 million of PUBCO costs, standalone cost number we've sort of reiterated a lot over the last year as an expectation. It's coming in about what we thought.
And then the divestiture of AIM Services out of the international business, which we did use to pay down debt and delever. So it was an accretive deal, and, you know, has helped us to move forward more rapidly on the deleverage curve. So if you take those internal decisions and sort of reset the base, forget the spin, into a degree, we would be at the updated numbers, slightly reduced margin, based on those decisions, slightly reduced AOI dollars, and then you can see improved leverage targets versus what we originally said and slight modification of the EPS. So hopefully that all makes sense on where we were. So that's based on internal decisions. This slide is really based on what's happened in the macro environment.
So if I looked at the timing of hitting those targets, originally, it was all 25. We're going to hit $20 billion a year early. This coming year is going to be in excess of $20 billion when you add the two companies together. Margin, the headwind that's provided from stronger new growth, and we've talked about the drag that that has out of the gate, as well as this price inflation lag that, you know, we seems like two years ago was forever ago ago from an inflation standpoint, you know, has provided a headwind on the margin as we've been pricing to catch up to inflation, but still feel very strong about that. I'll reemphasize this point that these numbers are just way stations.
I mean, we feel very good about the business moving to and through these revenue targets, these margin targets, these AOI targets. This is again a waystation on the way to much bigger numbers. AOI dollars on time, as we've been talking about, really unaffected. We priced to recover cost. So it hasn't really impacted the dollars, but has delayed the margin a bit. EPS, interest rates up at least 250 basis points since we had Analyst Day, is a bit of a drag on EPS.
And then leverage on target, as we talked about before, with the reduced goal, the original goal of 3.5, we would hit early, but with the modification on AIM, and that decision, sort of trying to be intellectually honest here, we'll hit that lower target on time. So again, a bit early, bit on time, and a couple things, you know, maybe a year late is where we're getting, taking ourselves to. I keep feeling like I wanna say, "Any questions?" But I'll keep moving. So this has been sort of the maybe the most important slide, is what we've been asked quite a bit over the last couple of quarters as the spin has become closer and closer.
What did you assume underneath that Analyst Day for food and facilities? So underneath the $20 billion, the 7-7.5, the 1.4-1.5, we didn't go obviously down into the sector for EPS or leverage. This is what we assumed for food and facilities. We've adjusted for AIM, which came out of those original assumptions, and so for going forward, piecing together out of the total company, this was the expectation for food and facilities. This being greater than $17 billion dollar company, 5.9-6.4 on the margin, and a billion plus on AOI dollars. Same logic on timing, we'll hit that $17 billion a year early, versus what we thought back in 2021. Dollars look to be on time for the same rationale, and margin pushing out a year.
Again, a to-and-through figure for all three of these numbers, or to-and-through concept for these. These are way stations on the way to bigger numbers. So just to wrap up, you know, we've got a lot of confidence in where we are and where we're going into FY 2024. We've just finished our budget reviews the last couple of weeks and, you know, we've built a lot of the budget and the expectations around these points under the catalyst for AOI performance. I won't run through all of them, we've talked about them.
Longer term, we feel like we've really implemented a real strong growth framework, and that we'll be able to sort of leverage that now that you know, the pandemic is well behind us, supply chain is normalizing. We've got the muscle built to price, so where inflation takes us, you know, we're more prepared than we were a year and a half ago. So we feel like we're in a good position as we finish this year and enter the new fiscal year. So, Leo?
Thank you for the, for the slides and introduction. Can we perhaps start on top line and the growth trends, the growth new business, if you like? I think there's in the themes of your ability to mitigate inflation for the clients, use your procurement scale, and then technology adoption, use capital at the start of contracts, and then potentially even the clients' increased focus on sustainability and hitting their own sustainability targets. Pulling out whatever you want, if these are the drivers of your top line growth, how sustainable do you think each of them is? Because clearly, the inflation pressure is now beginning to cool, but how much does that drive the growth?
Also, I'd love to hear the international perspective as much as the U.S.
All of them, so... Yeah. So thanks, Leo, and thanks for having us. I think the way that I would address address your question is, that when we look at the power, the power of growth, and we look at the impact it can have, the components that you speak of are all important to the process. They may vary based on client need or geography or the actual market that we're serving, but they are all considerations of the growth process. When we look at the future, the funnel is actually very strong. We feel good about what is on the horizon, not just, you know, in 2024, but when we look out to 2025 and into 2026.
We feel good about the rigor and the rhythm that's in place from a growth perspective. And growth, of course, is, you know, selling new, but also retention of the core business. And the strength that we've created around the world, I think is very impactful. The key for us as we go forward is the consistency and the sustainability of that growth. And certainly, you see the value and the benefit that that creates in what Tom just shared. Whether it's technology, whether it's ESG, whether it's customized solutions, we've got the ability to meet those needs. Every one of the sales that Chris and his sales leaders go on, every one of those opportunities is different.
There's no template that we use to boilerplate the sale. It's all about understanding what the client needs are, listening to those needs, and then finding the right solution, and of course, putting the financial package together to create the right relationship.
... Thank you. And other trends, I know we all sort of have to wait till the year end to get the retention and gross wins numbers and any comments on US versus international. But are the trends uniform globally in terms of this propensity to outsource, which has structurally increased, it seems?
Yeah, I think so. I mean, we continue to see, you know, an incredibly robust pipeline as we move into 2024. I mean, we're well into the 2024 selling season. In some cases, Chris will tell you, you know, we're into 2025. The complexities that COVID created, you know, did provide a boost to first-time outsourcing. Inflation and supply chain disruption has done the same. But we don't really- even though that may be cooling a bit, those rationales, the fundamental underlying reasons to outsource, to make changes are still there, and we just believe so strongly in the marketplace and the opportunity to grow in it, that... You know, and that reflects in the pipeline. What we've seen this year, and it's interesting because...
That's on the new side. So we continue to sort of set records of winning new contracts. What we've seen this year is we did have a very heavy retention year this year in terms of what went out. A lot of things that had been pushed out for a couple of years in terms of rebid or re-tenders, and did nothing, virtually no activity in fiscal 2020, a little in 2021, saw a bit more in 2022. 2023 ended up being a pretty heavy retention year. Yeah, and did a very strong year. Well, you know, again, we've talked about being above 95, so we feel good about that again. And then I think that's gonna settle down a bit and be a bit more normal.
So, some people have asked us about, is this, is the retention to come? Is there this big bubble of rebids coming out? I think that happened this year.
Okay, so what, so what you will report at the end of the year is inarguably the sort of harshest environment for this kind of a rebid activity?
Well, much harsher than we saw the previous two years, and I would say harsher than we expected. From all accounts, as we look forward, harsher than we expect next year.
Okay. Because it has been noticeable that of it, looking at net new business, there's been a sizable contribution to that from the retention rate. But are the drivers of retention effectively the same drivers as your win-winnability for new contracts?
There are a lot of overlaps and similarities, but, you know, retention starts the day you win, the day you win the deal. And, it's all about nurturing that relationship. It's all about the execution, about fulfilling the commitments that you make to a client, taking care of their customer, whether it's an employee, a patient, a fan.
Mm-hmm.
And it really starts from the first day that you are a guest in their home, and works throughout that entire contract year together. So if you've done your job and you've built the right relationship, you're essentially can become, you know, a partner for life. And that's a little bit different than when you're out in the selling process, where you're trying to build that relationship from start, from with the promise of delivery. So retention really does come down to performance, it comes down to fulfilling your commitments, and ultimately, you know, nurturing that relationship for the long term.
John talks a lot about. Sorry. John talks a lot about these accounts being annuities, and I think one of the mindset shifts we've been able to put into the business over the last few years is this idea that we play it long. You're not always trying to take every nickel, you know, in the moment. That as we've dealt with the challenges we've had through COVID, you know, and you've seen certainly the margin to take an impact. As we've rebuilt the revenue line, we're rebuilding the margin. We're trying to do that very thoughtfully, and with, again, when I say to and through on the margin, it's because we have confidence that we're building these annuities and these relationships as we go forward. So, you know, if we can't get it today, that's okay.
We'll continue to become more efficient, more effective, and value the relationship first and foremost over today's profit. And that's a mindset shift that we've really tried to build into the business.
Okay. And have you seen any... I know you've been clear on your perception of CapEx as a, you know, positive driver for the business. Any changes in terms of what your clients are asking for with CapEx?
I don't think so. Not noticeable. I think, you know, and again, in every sell and every retention, there's a lever of capital that could be a component of that relationship, but I haven't seen a trend where there's a higher demand or a higher need for CapEx. I think for us, it's about using CapEx in a smart way. Ways that we can innovate, ways that we can bring, you know, a good solution to the table, ways that we can help solve a gap that a client may have. Especially on the retention side, as Chris does a lot of work on that area, looking at ways that we can spend a small amount of capital to proactively extend.
I think those are all components of the business, but no material change in the demand for capital in the business. I think Tom and John have been terrific stewards of the capital resource allocation and ensuring that we have what we need, when we need it, to go out and win the business when capital is required.
and I've mentioned many times, we'd love to spend more. We get term, we get higher margins, so generally stickiness when we invest in a client. It just, you know, we'll use it, and we like to use it, but no real upward trend at the moment.
Okay, very clear. And on the sort of matter of investments and specifically in technology, you know, earlier this year, you launched an AI-enabled, you know, just cashierless outlets. This is obviously exciting. Is this a broader trend in tech for your business?
So, you know, I think the component of technology is something that will always be at the forefront of trying to help solve the client's needs. Is there a solution that works in that particular account or not? And some of our partners are very open to technology and innovation, others who prefer more of the traditional service mindset, where there's a human interaction. So it's all about finding the right fit. And you know, from a technology perspective, you could add technology across the entire portfolio, but now you're putting technology in just for technology's sake, and what it really needs to do is solve a need.
So when you've seen the autonomous stores go into stadia and arenas around the world, those are solving a need that's helping increase the fan experience, speed of service, returning the fan back to their seat, you know, in a more expeditious manner. We just installed the first autonomous store in a mine down in Chile. That helps the miner take their break, get their snack or beverage, cup of coffee, and get back and get back into their workplace in an efficient manner. So we're solving for, you know, a specific need.
In the case of the autonomous stores, whether it's in the AI-enabled vending, whether it's in kiosk-based ordering, whether it's an app-based, you know, experience, there are a number of connected solutions that we can offer to a client, but it has to fit in the right environment, and really solve one of those needs. But I do think, as someone who grew up in this business, we started talking about technology 25 years ago in a very different way, but it was still very important to the experience. It's just as technology has evolved, it's a different solve or a different solution that we're putting forth for the customer or the client.
Okay. Outside of contract catering, some businesses have reported that technology and use of screens and pre-ordering of foods drives an uplift to spend. Is that something that you see signs of?
I think anytime you can increase the efficiency and the speed of a transaction or put the power of the purchase back to the consumer, you will see a propensity for them to spend more. And so, yes, that, the answer to your question, we have seen an uplift in revenue when we've put those solutions in, in the right environments. The adoption is the critical component. And giving, you know, giving the consumer the choice whether or not to participate with the technology is key, but also enabling them and enticing them to participate becomes very much an important part of the overall marketing and messaging around the technology install that you're putting into an environment, whether it's a hospital, a stadium, a mine, or a corporate café.
Some of your competitors are increasing their interest in vending offers. Is this the same theme really as the autonomous stores, consumers want something quick and are accustomed to this technology, and it's just their expectation, or is there something around the vending proposition specifically that's appealing?
I think it's a little bit of both. In certain environments, the vending solution, the autonomous store, the self-checkout can create a service opportunity, otherwise when you may not have had a canteen or a café open. As you look at kind of the return-to-work trends, micro markets, which have been very popular in our U.S. business for years, but have really grown a lot, really do replace the traditional, you know, kind of, you know, vending automat, where now you're going to have more variety, more selections, fresh foods, and there's a number of tech solutions.
We partner with a group called Get VICKI. I think it's probably got 100 of their locations scattered throughout the world that are AI-enabled vending services that help create an additional service point, and sometimes meet a need that may not have been served in the past. Overnight workers in a hospital, for example, the nurse that needs to have, you know, nourishment at 2:00 A.M., you want to make sure they have something fresh and available for them, so vending does solve some of those needs.
Yeah, I think it's to add to that, I think it's been driven a little bit by the return to work and the reduced populations, 'cause you wanna you know, the economics of a full café tend to require people to make it work, and as you move, you know, down to 25, 50, 75 people on site on a given day, even if there's more that could generally be there, you need different solutions. Micro markets fit the bill. You know, we've got a very good robust in the U.S. vending business, refreshments business with office coffee, micro markets, traditional vending. And that has seen, you know, really good growth because of this solution to provide to 10,000 employees or to 10.
Mm-hmm. Maybe thinking sort of from high, high-level principles, but using the Merlin contract as an example, to the extent you can speak to that. I think it's the largest contract you've had. Is it certainly an international, potentially for the whole business. Are there any sort of observations now that you are sort of beginning to get up to speed with that contract? And in terms of the mix for Aramark going forward, are these large contracts you know, increasingly appealing or actually coming to market now for you? What can we expect from these large contracts?
You know, it's interesting. On Merlin, we are just now fully mobilized. It really was a two-year process when you think about the opportunity to establish operations in five parks here in the U.K. and two in the U.S. And we, you know, we are now up and running, and it's a great place to be, and I commend the team for their hard work and their dedication and focus to transition this very complex business over the last two years. And I think we're in a good spot now, you know, to continue to transform and grow that particular partnership with Merlin as their leadership team forms and thinks about what their future strategies are.
We look forward to aligning with them and continuing to enhance the guest experience at the different parks around the globe. But it certainly does create excitement for us returning in terms of what that potential business market could look like. Whether it's in the procurement side of the house or in the operating side of the house, there's a very fragmented marketplace around the globe in terms of outsourcing of food and beverage in theme parks. And I would actually maybe take a step back, is about entertainment destinations that you know bring a visitor to an attraction and provides an experience for them that is extremely memorable and one that's very special for them. And so I really even broaden where that potential would be.
Our focus has been on the mobilization and making sure we get, you know, these parks optimized, and now we'll start thinking about where we can leverage that going forward.
I guess just in terms of the future, you know, they're always nice to get, you know, these few and far between contracts, but our core contracts are between $1 million and $3 million, you know, in scale. So that's the core business that we operate in. But clearly, that gives us scope then to think about larger contracts across the markets that we operate. You know, as we look at the whole pipeline, which is, you know, from what we're doing now and building on to what is emerging over the course of the next 18 months to two years.
Thank you. Then perhaps, given the slides and the contents of the slides, it'd be worth turning the conversation to cost versus price, but also the burden on margins from ramping up contracts. It's... Yeah, I suppose your 2019 margin had very limited, a more limited overhead from ramp-ups. Just lastly, on the cost-price dynamic, is this as simple as there being a sweet spot where, depends on the direction of commodities, obviously, but a sweet spot where your price catches up to the costs? Or how would you... What help can you give us with the modeling in terms of the timing of this margin trajectory?
Yeah, probably not enough or good enough for what you want. But certainly, Q4 was a step forward in the most impacted businesses, which was U.S. corrections and education. The July first date was a pivotal point for them. The rest of the businesses we've talked about either had really very dynamic pricing, like in S&E, basically event by event, or it was sort of chipped away at as we went throughout the year. So we'll see an impact in Q4 that will carry into next year for those businesses. But as Carl mentioned, you know, previously, earlier today, we've built the pricing muscle back into the business.
I mean, we had a generation of managers who had never experienced inflation or really the need to have pricing conversations with clients. And the last year has really, you know, forced that conversation and forced that capability. So while inflation is moderating, I don't want to get too far forward or too optimistic about it, and certainly, we're planning for it to remain mid-single digits. If it's better, that's great, but we can't let our foot off the gas when it comes to pricing and staying ahead of that.
We've got much more confidence in our ability to do that, to have those conversations with clients, to make sure that that lag is minimized going forward, and isn't as acute as it was, you know, when we've sort of were all caught off guard with transitory inflation. That, you know, it was like flattening the curve with COVID, right? Two weeks, it'll be gone. You know, it didn't happen that way. So, we're assuming it's staying, it's gonna stay at elevated amounts, you know, certainly not the high single digits we've been experiencing, but I don't... We don't see it being, you know-
Mm
... 1-2% either.
I think the point about your sort of teams is interesting. A client's also, presumably all clients are now fully accustomed to you asking for price. Is that making discussions any easier or?
I think to a degree, I'll start. I think to a degree, but I think the key is we're keeping the value proposition front and center. So, you know, just to use numbers, if inflation is 8%, how do we come to them with a 4% or 5% price increase? So that we're mitigating in other ways. And those conversations, that's what we've been working on. So when they—when we come to them for pricing, it's not hat in hand, it's with a common solution to help them and show them value. So that's made the conversations easier, as we've gone along, and they will have to continue.
I was gonna just add, it's been an education process both for our frontline management, who's going to have the conversation, but also an education for the client and the consumer in terms of what happened over the last 18 months. We were all caught off guard everywhere in the world with the inflationary environment, and it did require a recalibration of context of why are we having these conversations, and what does it mean to the business? And as Tom mentioned, how can we mitigate where possible? How can we adjust where possible, and where do we need to take price as needed?
So I think the price as appropriate mindset is what's kind of now the muscle memory of the company, and now the expectation from our clients. That we're smart about it, that we're open and transparent with the dialogue, but also that there's an acceptance that this is the world we live in. Just as Tom mentioned, that this generation of managers didn't exist, there was a generation of clients that didn't exist. And so it really was about working together to find those solutions, and the rigor and the muscle memory will allow us to...
I, you know, I think we were probably chasing inflation for, for a good amount of time, and now if we can pace with it, we-we'll be in a really good spot, and at some point it will moderate, and we'll be in a really, you know, great place for, for that period of time.
We've built just besides the mindset of the manager, you know, manager, a much better flow of information within the business from supply chain to the units that really keeps them updated weekly on commodity pricing and really equip them with data to have those conversations. So it's not just the client being prepared, our unit managers understanding that the conversation needs to take place, but the fact that we've got, you know, a discipline and a rigor and data behind that to help the conversation.
Mm-hmm. And the—I think the implication from the margin trajectory is that, and correct me if I'm wrong, but it... The pre-opening costs and the ramp-up costs continue to be loaded into the business, which implies, I think, a strong outlook for growth. Can you, in terms of your visibility, I know, Chris, you mentioned out to 2025, but in terms of your visibility, what can you say about the early discussions, the sales funnel, and what gives you that confidence so far out?
Yeah, I think, look, the first thing for it, the pipeline is a strong pipeline, so that we have good visibility of that over the course of the next 18 months to two years, and further out in some cases. But equally so, in terms of the... If you think about the, you know, sort of going back to 2021, when there was very little growth in the business, we're now into a sustainable, disciplined approach on business. So we cycle those mobilization costs. Yes, initially a drag, but then we start to cycle it, and you start to get into a really sustainable program and a good momentum around the processes that we operate.
So you can see the growth, you can see the discipline, you can see the sustainability of it, and you can see the sectors that we're growing in across all geographies, across international.
Mm-hmm.
So Tom can speak to the U.S., but that's
Yeah
... that's how we see it.
But the discipline that Chris has brought to the international business and then, you know, sort of rebuilding the U.S. sales base, you know, built off a CRM, you know, account by account, conversations weekly within the sales teams. You know, Chris is meeting with the country sales leads, you know, constantly. You know, specific account strategies to what it'll take to win. Understanding when we need to, you know, bow out because we don't have a relationship or the proper solution. Those disciplines have been rebuilt into the business, particularly in the U.S., but maintained and lifted even higher by Chris and the international team.
So that we have, you know, from when we say the pipeline's robust, I mean, it's account specific, you know, quarter by quarter, it's this year, it's the stuff that's, you know, beyond a year that we're working on in the background. So that's where the confidence comes from as we... We also know what we've booked this year that's gonna roll into next year and provide a lift to that next year's revenue, that we didn't get the full realization of this year. So it's just that combination and that consistent year-on-year mindset that we're starting to get into. We're now two and a half years into the consistent growth model. Probably as we get into 2024, 2025, you'll stop hearing or seeing about this, you know, start-up cost phenomenon, because to Chris's point, we'll be lapping it.
It'll be in one year. In the next, they neutralize. They equal out.
Yeah. And as the capability is lifted, so is the, you know, the attraction of talent, as we continue to, you know, to work through that momentum and equip our countries and our with the necessary resources and tools, investment criteria to invest in new business.
... Okay, and last, last question for me. I know we're coming up on for time, and feel free to append any other thoughts that occurred to you over the last 40 minutes or so. But the leverage pathway is obviously very encouraging and better than anticipated after AIM disposal. So something that's been an interesting sort of feature since 2019 is the very limited M&A in the sector as a whole. Do you think that's going to persist in midterm now? And in terms of Aramark's business specifically, are you comfortable with what you have? Any sort of remarks on M&A?
Yeah, it might be... I can't speak for the other companies. It might be just, you know, sort of people are satisfied with the core, the countries that they're in, and-
Mm-hmm
... and certainly we are. We're not interested in planting flags. We like the business lines of business we're in within countries, as well as the countries we're in. So it's, you know, a specific purpose for any M&A right now. It's really got to bring some unique sort of sub-sector to us, or a management team that's just as outstanding. We're just not interested in buying volume, and we're not interested in planting flags. So I think that may be what you're seeing. We've made some very, you know, targeted deals, tuck-in deals over the last two and a half years, both internationally and in the U.S., not much, but they've been very specific with specific reasons. And we'll just keep that sort of mentality going forward.
Yeah. I would say that, you know, we have a strict criteria around M&A, but it has to add something to our business. It's got to be, you know, we're talking about real capability or pipeline activity in sectors which are core to us or, you know, are in our core business that we particular select sectors that we'd like to get into.
Okay, fantastic. Well, Tom, Chris, Carl, thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Appreciate it.