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Earnings Call: Q1 2022

Feb 8, 2022

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Aramark's Q1 2022 earnings results conference call. My name is Kevin, and I'll be your operator for today's call. At this time, I'd like to inform you that this conference is being recorded for rebroadcast, and that all participant lines are in a listen only mode. We will open the conference call for questions at the conclusion of the company's remarks. I will now turn the call over to Felise Kissell, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Affairs. Ms. Kissell, please proceed.

Felise Kissell
VP of Investor Relations and Corporate Affairs, Aramark

Thank you, and welcome to Aramark's Q1 fiscal 2022 earnings conference call and webcast. I hope all of you are doing well. This morning, we will be hearing from our Chief Executive Officer, John Zillmer, as well as our Chief Financial Officer, Tom Ondrof. As a reminder, our notice regarding forward-looking statements is included in our press release this morning, which can be found on our website. During this call, we will be making comments that are forward-looking. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied as a result of various risks, uncertainties, and important factors, including those discussed in the Risk Factors, MD&A, and other sections of our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. Additionally, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures.

A reconciliation of these items to U.S. GAAP can be found in this morning's press release, as well as on our website. With that, I will now turn the call over to John.

John Zillmer
CEO, Aramark

Thanks, Felise, and it's good to be with all of you again. In December, we had the opportunity to come together in person at our Analyst Day to provide an overview of the state of our business, highlight our value- creating strategies, and introduce our long-term performance goals through 2025, as well as the actions we're taking to achieve them. As we review our Q1 results this morning, we're exceptionally pleased to see the significant progress that we've made in both our performance and ability to achieve our financial targets. Fiscal 2022 has already begun with great enthusiasm across the organization that's building on the momentum created last year, which included record net new business. Most notably, we're off to an impressive start in net new business, driven by strong retention rates and newly awarded contracts.

Just last week, we announced the largest client win in Aramark's history with Merlin Entertainments, a global leader in location-based family entertainment, and one of the world's largest attraction operators. We will be providing services for Merlin that span seven locations in the U.K. and U.S. This is a differentiated self-op conversion that represents a unique growth opportunity for Aramark outside our historical portfolio to serve a new dynamic type of client, and we believe our experience, expertise, and scale positions the partnership for strong success. We've already begun to work closely with their team, and we'll begin operations next month in the U.K. Additional new business wins were broad-based with particular strength in facilities, as well as launching Walmart in Chile within our International segment. Our sales progress is off to a strong start to the year, and our pipeline continues to expand.

In the quarter, we also embarked on two strategic partnerships with innovative businesses that align with our mission and service offerings. The first is with Patient Engagement Advisors, or PEA, which adds a technology and service platform to our healthcare portfolio that assists our clients by providing continual care, both pre and post-discharge for patients, extending our services beyond the four walls of the hospital. This added capability enables us to better serve an evolving healthcare industry by working in close partnership with our clients to customize care, remove non-core tasks, connect with the community, and improve the healthcare system's financial viability and network integrity. The second, STARR Restaurant Organization, based in our hometown of Philadelphia, is one of the largest multi-concept restaurant groups in the United States.

Our exclusive agreement is designed to provide unique hospitality experiences for clients while enabling new growth opportunities by implementing STARR's creative concepts and brands across our business. Turning now to Aramark's performance in the Q1 . Organic revenue increased 41% year-over-year and reflected sequential quarterly improvement that reached 92% of pre-COVID fiscal 2019 levels. The quarter reflected ongoing recovery in all segments with our teams across the globe continuing to manage through various stages of COVID, especially the Omicron variant, and our ability to adapt to dynamic situations. Organic revenue in U.S. food and facilities increased 61% year-over-year. Key drivers across each sector included education, kicking off the academic year with nearly all clients holding in-person learning while managing through some COVID-related delays in specific geographies. In higher ed, students largely resided on campus with meal plans intact.

Building on our relationship with Purdue University, we opened the Purdue Memorial Student Union that serves thousands of visitors daily. We played an integral role in redesigning the facility that included creating a culinary concept in collaboration with alumnus and former NFL quarterback Drew Brees, already becoming a marquee destination on campus. In K through 12, we continued to benefit from the universal government-sponsored programs. Education is currently gearing up for the upcoming new business selling season that typically begins in the spring, and we remain confident in the next academic cycle. Sports, leisure, and corrections demonstrated improved performance. Sports and entertainment experienced double-digit per capita spending growth enabled by technology and concept innovation. Client participation in the MLB playoffs early in the quarter, as well as strong levels of fan attendance throughout the NFL regular season, contributed to year-over-year growth.

We also offer our congratulations to our client, the Cincinnati Bengals, on their AFC Championship victory, and wish them luck in the Super Bowl on Sunday. Leisure maintained steady performance in the quarter with a focus on a strong upcoming season. We're excited to showcase reopenings, new renovations, and outdoor programs that enable vacationers to explore unique natural landscapes, particularly within our National Parks portfolio. Corrections where we continue to expand our efforts to reduce recidivism once again performed above pre-COVID levels. B&I continued to experience greater in-person activity while still measured. Clients have implemented increased office safety protocols, and we expect additional sales opportunities from higher participation rates, meal subsidies, and customized offerings. Facilities and other grew double- digit compared to pre-COVID levels due to in-demand services and project-oriented add-ons. In addition, strong levels of new account wins contributed to this performance.

Healthcare demonstrated year-over-year growth as patient visits and retail activity gradually normalized. This team remains laser-focused on first-class patient and caregiver experiences. FSS International organic revenue grew 28% year-over-year, and reflected notable improvement compared to the previous quarter, as Europe and Canada experienced improved activity levels in the sports and entertainment and education businesses. China, Chile, and Spain continue to outperform pre-COVID levels on a constant currency basis, with double-digit growth in revenues compared to Q1 fiscal 2019. As we enter the 2022 calendar year, government programs are expected to be reduced or eliminated in various countries, shifting their focus to reopenings. Organic revenue in uniforms increased 7% year-over-year, reaching 99% of pre-COVID levels in the quarter, with December reflecting the first month higher than pre-COVID levels.

Kim Scott, who you heard from in December, has led this segment for just 120 days, and the team is already making an impact with a focus on base recovery, value delivery from recent investments, and building out a strategic growth plan to deliver a meaningful step change in organic growth. In supply chain, we are managing through the disruptive environment through pricing initiatives, supplier partnerships to ensure product availability, as well as off-program utilization. The proactive actions we have taken, combined with Aramark's scale, deep supplier bench strength, and menu flexibility, have helped mitigate issues for our clients and customers. We continue to monitor our supply chain globally to ensure we remain ahead of the curve. We are proactively addressing inflation and wage pressures through fixed contract pricing, menu reengineering, and product alternatives.

We've also just launched a capability that allows field employees to receive their pay immediately at the end of a shift, a compelling incentive that has been effective during this period. Two weeks ago, we released our comprehensive Be Well. Do Well impact report that highlights Aramark's key areas of focus for ESG and our path for delivering on our sustainability commitments. We've also built a strong internal model to embed sustainability across our business. As a company, we took steps to strengthen our governance, resource teams for success, and significantly increase our transparency by providing more information and data than ever before, aligned with the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board, the Global Reporting Initiative, and the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures.

Diversity, equity, and inclusion remain central to our core values at all levels of the organization, and we are proactively pursuing a DEI strategy that will expand opportunities for everyone. We've built a strong foundation, and I'm excited to continue the progress and impact of our work in 2022 and beyond. Last week, Fortune magazine released its list of the world's most admired companies, and Aramark ranked in the top 100 globally. More notably, we were first in the diversified outsourcing category, up significantly from sixth place last year. In a year that has been both historically challenging and inspiring, this news was especially gratifying. I remain convinced that the team's unwavering commitment to our vision of being the most admired employer and trusted hospitality partner is more than just a catchphrase. It's our way of doing business.

Before turning it over to Tom, I would like to highlight the recent election of two new members to Aramark's board of directors at our annual meeting last week: Patricia Lopez and Ken Keverian. Patricia's balance of creative, strategic, and operational skills will add a new perspective to our strategic direction, and Ken's deep expertise of the digital landscape will be a valuable asset to further drive innovation. We're looking forward to both joining our board and providing a meaningful impact. I would also like to thank Irene Esteves, who announced her retirement from our board, for her valued contributions since 2015, and most recently as the chair of our finance committee. I'll now turn the call over to Tom for a detailed financial review of the business.

Tom Ondrof
CFO, Aramark

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. At our Analyst Day, we also shared with confidence that the foundation is set to achieve our outlook for fiscal 2022 and our long-term goals for fiscal 2025. Throughout the Q1 , we executed on our strategies that not only strengthen the current state of the business but position the company for future success driven by profitable growth. As John mentioned, organic revenue in the quarter reached 92% of pre-COVID fiscal 2019 levels, compared to 65% at this time last year. With meaningful improvement across all segments. While this year-over-year performance reflected a continued steady recovery in pre-COVID base revenues, was also driven by the impact of pricing pass through and the initial contributions from last year's record net new business as we began operations at those new client sites.

Consistent with what we discussed regarding our COVID index last quarter, the vast majority of our operations have components of the business that have already approached or exceeded pre-COVID organic revenue levels. However, a few select areas within the portfolio continue to be slower to recover, specifically white-collar business and industry, retail and catering, and higher education and healthcare, conference and convention centers, concerts, and select events within the sports, leisure, and corrections sector, and some hospitality clients and Canadian operations in our Uniform segment. We anticipate these remaining volumes still impacted by COVID will continue to recover throughout the course of this year and beyond. As previously discussed, in many cases, the company has brought back operating and above unit support costs in advance of full revenue recovery.

We anticipate that as COVID-impacted revenue volumes recover, this transitional impact on profitability will unwind with an expected incremental margin of 15%-20% on the returning volumes. As revenues improved during the quarter, we continued to control what we could control by effectively leveraging our variable cost-based operating model and proactively addressing inflation and wage pressures through supply chain initiatives, ongoing efforts to drive operating efficiencies, and lastly, through account pricing. As a result, adjusted operating income improved by $176 million year-over-year, resulting in a constant currency AOI margin of 4.3%. AOI margin was somewhat affected by the start of new accounts and off-program supply chain actions. As the year progresses, we expect that the global supply chain environment will ease.

Our collective actions resulted in an adjusted EPS of $0.22 compared to an adjusted loss per share of $0.31 last year. On a GAAP basis, Aramark reported consolidated revenue of $3.9 billion, operating income of $140 million, and diluted earnings per share of $0.17. These results included a $92 million revenue contribution from the Next Level Hospitality acquisition that continues to be excluded from our organic revenue metric until we lap the acquisition Q3 of this year. Now turning to cash flow. In the quarter, net cash used in operating activities was $503 million, and free cash flow was a use of $569 million.

At quarter end, we had over $1.4 billion in cash availability and no debt maturities due until 2025, with the exception of the AR facility, which supports our seasonal working capital needs. As expected, the Q1 saw the return of our normal seasonal cash outflow, driven by a use of working capital in the higher education business. In addition, working capital was also impacted by increased accounts receivable due to the improving pre-COVID base revenue and record- level new account openings. Compared to prior year, cash flow results in the quarter also included higher incentive compensation payments associated with exceeding our fiscal 2021 targets and a scheduled deferred FICA payment of $64 million that we had previewed in our outlook during last year's Q4 earnings call.

Consistent with previous quarters, we participated in the appropriate country-specific government assistance programs where we received approximately $25 million in labor credits that offset costs incurred globally. As we move into the new calendar year, these government programs are expected to be reduced or eliminated in various countries. Looking ahead, our capital allocation priorities will continue to balance potential debt repayment opportunities with a disciplined use of capital investment to facilitate new business wins and drive results in existing client locations. We will also remain opportunistic in pursuing select accretive M&A that advances our profitable growth agenda. Lastly, we remain committed to our quarterly dividend, as noted by the board's approval last week of our upcoming quarterly dividend of $0.11 per share. Let me conclude with our outlook for fiscal 2022.

The Q1 reflected a solid start to the year, and we are extremely encouraged by the upward trends of the business that included organic revenue improvement, cost discipline, effective cash management, and notable new client wins. Based on our current view of the business, we maintain our previously stated full year fiscal 2022 outlook of organic revenue growth between 23%-27%, AOI margin of between 5%-5.5%, free cash flow between $300 million-$400 million, and annualized net new business in a range of $550 million-$650 million, which would represent, at the midpoint, 5% of prior year revenues and 3.7% of fiscal 2019 revenues.

At all levels of the organization, we wake up every day with an everyone sales mindset and a commitment to reach $20 billion+ in revenue, deliver 7%+ margins, and a leverage ratio below 3.5 x, all by 2025. The foundation is set, and we couldn't be more excited. John?

John Zillmer
CEO, Aramark

Thank you, Tom. With fiscal 2022 just underway, I'm extremely pleased with our performance as we begin the new year, and confident in our ability to execute on the numerous opportunities ahead. As a company, we've implemented a number of meaningful initiatives across the businesses and have continued to build upon last year's momentum, which included record net new business. Our belief in Aramark's success has never been stronger, and I'm immensely grateful for the exceptional teams around the globe who make it happen each and every day. Thank you, everyone. Operator, we'll now open the call for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you have a question, please press star then one on your touchtone phone. If you wish to be removed from the queue, please press the pound sign or the hash key. If you're using a speakerphone, you may need to pick up the handset first before pressing any numbers. In order to accommodate participants in the question queue, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Our first question comes from Ian Zaffino with Oppenheimer.

Ian Zaffino
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Oppenheimer

Thank you very much. A very good quarter here. You know, again, another quarter of good on new business here. Can we just get a little bit more color on some of the new business? I think I don't know if Merlin was the biggest that you had. Maybe you could kind of explain how you got that, what the process was. Then also if I was to put kind of pencil to paper here, I think Yosemite was maybe $140 million of revenues. Is this sort of like the level we're talking about for that win? How should we basically be modeling it, thanks.

John Zillmer
CEO, Aramark

Terrific. Thank you very much, Ian, for the question. You know, first of all, this was a process that was undertaken over the course of the last year. Merlin had been evaluating self-op conversion. They've previously operated all this business themselves. They went through a very disciplined process, including a number of different competitors, and we were gratified to be selected as their provider of choice. It is the single largest account we've ever sold, but we have agreed with them not to disclose the size and scale. What we can say is that the largest account we had ever previously sold was Yosemite National Park, and the revenues disclosed at that time were $140 million.

You know, from a disclosure perspective, that's as far as we're going to go with respect to the size of the account. But it is significant. It's a very exciting win. It does represent a new vertical opportunity for us. The amusement park business around the world is primarily self-operated. We see that as a potential opportunity for continued growth in the future. It's an exciting win. The team both domestically and internationally worked together very closely to make this happen, and we're excited to get started.

Ian Zaffino
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Oppenheimer

Okay, thank you. If I could just ask a few more on the new business side. Maybe one question for Tom would be what is the AOI drag from the new business. Maybe you could quantify it. Then maybe for John, when we think about the environment we're in with inflation, labor shortages, has there been increased discussion as far as self-op conversions. Have we seen that yet? Do we expect that to accelerate? How should we kind of be mapping that out going forward? Thanks.

John Zillmer
CEO, Aramark

Thanks. I'll talk about the self-op conversion process first. That we are seeing an accelerating trend of organizations in multiple segments of our business, you know, continue to evaluate self-op conversion opportunities. That's happening in higher education and healthcare in K-12, and in some very non-traditional markets, as we just discussed, and also in the facility sector. We see it as a fairly broad-based phenomenon. As you know, last year, about 50% of our business wins were self-op conversion wins. That's up from a kind of a normalized level of around 30% on an annualized basis. We see that trend continuing, with an expansion of potential opportunities, and one that we're very well positioned to take advantage of.

Tom Ondrof
CFO, Aramark

Yeah. On your first question, the AOI drag on new business, it really depends on the type of contract and the complexity and size of the account that we win. The bigger and more complex P&L-oriented contract will have a larger drag, and a sort of small cost plus contract will virtually have no drag. It really just depends on the mix of business that we're winning. You know, generally, as we talked about in the Analyst Day, in Q4, you know, the maturity is over a couple, two, three years for a lot of these contracts. It just, again, depends on the mix.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley.

Jeff Goldstein
VP in Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Hey, guys. This is Jeff on for Toni. Can you help us out with recent trends in the business and any impact you've seen from Omicron? Mainly, did you see any notable fall off in December and then into January from the level of sales you were doing earlier in the quarter? And if there was a decline, has that since recovered? Just how should we think about that?

Tom Ondrof
CFO, Aramark

A slight impact at the end of the quarter, really negligible. Same thing as we moved into January. I think the month was about as we expected, maybe just a touch off, but nothing of note, you know, as reflected in our guidance for the year being unchanged. You know, as we move into these weeks, it's sort of a week-by-week basis, but we don't see anything that has significantly changed our outlook or really what we expected through December and January to any great degree enough to call out.

Jeff Goldstein
VP in Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Got it. In your remarks, you mentioned using pricing pass-through as a driver in the quarter. I was hoping for some more color around that. Is there particular geographies or verticals where you're trying to push more price than others? And just to clarify, are these price increases largely in line with your cost increases, or are you pricing intentionally beyond those cost increases? How should we think about that?

John Zillmer
CEO, Aramark

Yeah. I think you should think about the pricing pass-through as inflation or cost recovery mechanisms. You know, our primary driver for growth is new account wins, new customers, you know, increasing participation. We're not trying to build margin by pricing pass-through. We're trying to recover our costs. You know, that there is a little bit of a lag in some of the businesses as we have pricing that's you know, particularly in contracts on the corrections side where the pricing is fixed and you get an inflation adjustment on an annualized basis. There might be a slight lag there. Obviously, in higher education, the pricing on board plans is set the previous year. There's there are lags on pricing pass-through in higher education.

That's basically all built into our plan and our expectations for the balance of the year. We don't see it as having a significant drag on earnings, you know, through the balance of the year and expect to recover the impact of inflationary pressure.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Andrew Steinerman with JP Morgan.

Andrew Steinerman
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Hi, Tom. Could you give us some color on the three segments when thinking about the 2022 organic guide of 23%-27%?

Tom Ondrof
CFO, Aramark

Andrew, in terms of the contribution from each, or how

Andrew Steinerman
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah

Tom Ondrof
CFO, Aramark

how they're trending against what we expected?

Andrew Steinerman
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah. How will the three segments contribute to 23%-27% organic revenue growth for the year?

Tom Ondrof
CFO, Aramark

Well, I think we expect international to continue on, you know, in a strong form. They've had the most consistent year-over-year net growth of the three segments. So they'll be contributing strongly. The U.S. is picking up the pace quite nicely in last year. They'll continue to contribute into the year. The AUS business has had you know, a good restart with their sales process over the last 18 months and, probably will contribute a little slower than the other two. Again, they're picking up some good momentum and good pace. We expect all three to contribute, probably slightly led by international.

Andrew Steinerman
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Those price increases that you mentioned, you know, I assume those weren't contemplated when you first gave this guidance of 23%-27% organic. Would it be more recent price increases sort of, you know, kind of help the overall organic revenue growth trajectory for the year?

Tom Ondrof
CFO, Aramark

We did anticipate it 'cause, you know, inflation really was, you know, in our budget cycle through August. You know, we had pretty good visibility into what we thought inflation would be. It's tracking slightly ahead, so that, you know, ultimately, if we execute right, could provide a bit of a tailwind on the top line, but not significantly over what we anticipated as we started the year.

Andrew Steinerman
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay.

Tom Ondrof
CFO, Aramark

Unless it's prolonged throughout the balance of the year.

Andrew Steinerman
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

I understand. Thank you very much. I appreciate it.

Operator

Our next question comes from Richard Clarke with Bernstein.

Richard Clarke
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Bernstein

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just first one, of the 92% recovery you talk about, whether you could break that down between where you are on like-for-like volumes, how much bigger your footprint is than the comparative period, and maybe where your pricing is relative to the comparative period, please.

Tom Ondrof
CFO, Aramark

Yeah. If you break back on the base and try to, you know, get to the COVID base, if you will, you know, I think we're in the mid-80s there. If you build up, you know, probably a solid year of net growth in there, as opposed to two, since we were, you know, restarting that growth engine, you know, a year, maybe a year plus of pricing. You build up that 85-92, and then you've got the net Next Level on top of that. I think that's, you know, generally where we are on the base, compared to what's reported.

Richard Clarke
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Bernstein

Okay. That makes sense. Just a question on cash flow. I notice you've drawn down all of the revolver in the quarter. You normally do draw down something in the Q1 , but this it normally looks a bit more sort of sized to get to about $250 million of cash, and here you've gone way beyond that. Just maybe any commentary on why draw down all of it, and especially given your CapEx seemed very low in the quarter. I can't find a quarter at all in your history where you only spent $82 million. Is there some CapEx to come maybe? Is that why you've drawn it down so much of it?

Tom Ondrof
CFO, Aramark

Well, it was a working capital need as we're really the business continues to restart, in essence, sort of repopulating the balance sheet. AR, as you can see, was up, as it normally is, but even so, it's more than historical because of the continued recovery of the COVID base. And then on AP, I think just to add a little more color, you know, that was accounts payable kept very tight in the quarter, as we dealt with some supplier programs and distributors, just keeping that tight to ensure the continuity of the supply chain and the deliveries. We had those two effects in there.

Like we said, we paid the deferred FICA payment of $64 million and then, you know, against a prior normal base 19 also had higher incentive payments in the quarter.

Richard Clarke
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Bernstein

Any color you could just add on the very low CapEx number in the quarter?

Tom Ondrof
CFO, Aramark

It's purely timing. We don't see it being anything that's different than we're expecting for the full year. Still probably ending around the 3.5% of revenues mark, you know, on a normalized revenue basis for the year. I think that's just, you know, let's look back on the full year, and I think we'll be there. The opportunities are in front of us, and we're happy to spend CapEx for long-term contracts.

Richard Clarke
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Bernstein

Okay. Makes sense. Thanks very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Shlomo Rosenbaum of Stifel.

Shlomo Rosenbaum
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Stifel

Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Hey, John, just to start, can you talk a little bit about the success? You're talking about new contract wins, and you had this Merlin Entertainments win, which sounds really like a fantastic win. Are the wins from the outsourcing trend accelerating? Do you think it's company-specific efforts from all the sales resources you put in, or you think it's some kind of combination of both? How should we think about that?

John Zillmer
CEO, Aramark

Yeah, I think, well, we are seeing accelerating opportunities. I think and we have been very successful in converting those opportunities, in particular Merlin and several others that we'll have the opportunity to talk about here over the course of the year, as we close and contract those. I think you are seeing an accelerating trend of additional outsourcing coming from both traditional businesses as well as some non-traditional segments. You know, I think our sales organization has just done a fantastic job of capitalizing on those opportunities and converting them. You know, I think we're enjoying significant success, and we're just taking advantage of all the opportunities that we have been presented with. The Merlin win is obviously a very different segment.

It's something that, you know, as a first-time outsourcer and a first time in the industry, you know, we're very gratified with our ability to go ahead and compete, to go ahead and get that win. It's very exciting for the organization and it does represent significant further growth opportunity in the future. I think it's a combination of both, Shlomo, and I apologize for the long-winded answer, but I think it's really a combination of both in accelerating outsourcing and just an improved performance of the organization.

Shlomo Rosenbaum
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Stifel

Okay, great. Tom, can you talk a little bit with the contract win the size of Merlin, is there a noticeable impact to margins as you ramp that business? You know, usually when there's a startup of a new customer, there is a depressing impact near term on margins. Should we expect that to be the similar, you know, how this is gonna work over here, and if so, how long? It seems like there's growth opportunities within Merlin. Is there some way to dimensionalize that? Like, you know, what percentage of their business this contract represents and, you know, so how much is going outsourced and how much is remaining that's still insourced and how we can think about that?

Tom Ondrof
CFO, Aramark

Yeah. There definitely is further opportunities, so we're excited about that. I really can't go any further at the moment than that answer for you. It could and as I said before provide or create a drag on margin. You know, we're fortunate and I think very smartly both for Merlin and ourselves opening it in a phased approach starting in March. That I think helps mitigate some of that headwind that will come from the early days of the contract. I think we've been thoughtful about how we're approaching it so the impact you know to use your word isn't noticeable.

Certainly it will, you know, put some pressure on us to open it right and effectively and get this off on a good foot.

John Zillmer
CEO, Aramark

Yeah. I would just add that, you know, our guidance anticipates these wins and the anticipated drag from opening. Keep in mind, this is a phenomenon that as we lap year- over- year, as we begin to generate this engine, as this engine produces sales results and net new business growth year- over- year, you know, we'll lap those new account startups next year and then add another batch. You'll have this phenomenon in terms of the margin drag ultimately works its way through the system as you continue to build the new business base and these accounts mature over time. It's a, you know, it's an anticipated impact. It's one we're well prepared for, and our guidance reflects it.

Shlomo Rosenbaum
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Stifel

Great. Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from Stephen Grambling with Goldman Sachs.

Stephen Grambling
VP, Goldman Sachs

Hi. I know you don't like to talk about the specifics on any individual deal, but just going back to Merlin, just can you give a little bit more color on what services are part of that deal? Is that just food and beverage or also retail?

Is there room to potentially expand the number of properties that are being serviced? As a related follow-up, have you had any conversations with other amusement park operators, and what maybe makes this segment more or less likely to outsource now versus history?

John Zillmer
CEO, Aramark

Yeah. Well, those are great questions. You know, I would say, you know, we are bound by the confidentiality agreement we have with Merlin with respect to their business. We do see significant opportunity to grow with Merlin, both geographically, you know, through the opportunity to potentially pursue additional park operations in other parts of the world. They will continue to operate some of their retail business, so that will present a forward opportunity potentially in the future. You know, the scope of services that we've talked about is with those seven facilities in the United States and in the U.K. It's a comprehensive list of services in those facilities, primarily food.

That's about as far as we can go with respect to the disclosure. You know, I think over time, as Merlin becomes more comfortable with us and we with them, you know, we'll be able to talk about this more openly because it's a first-time outsourcing opportunity for them, they're very sensitive, you know, to making sure that their employees are well treated, and that they're fully informed. We want to be respectful of their needs, both internally, with their employees and with the marketplace.

Stephen Grambling
VP, Goldman Sachs

Got it. Thank you so much.

John Zillmer
CEO, Aramark

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital.

John Mazzoni
AVP in Equity Research, RBC Capital

Hi, this is John filling in for Ashish. Could you just remind us about the margin ramp in the back half of the year and how we should think about modeling as COVID impacted volumes return? Thank you.

Tom Ondrof
CFO, Aramark

Yeah. We definitely see an acceleration into the back half, probably, you know, an exit, you know, in the neighborhood of 6.5% as we go into fiscal 2023. You know, again, we talked about before with, you know, some slight headwinds, probably impacting Q2 a little bit, maybe into Q3 with depending on how long inflation remains at the levels it has been. As I said before, we baked in a good bit of inflation into this plan and this outlook. If it stays up at to this level for the balance of the year, that could provide a bit of a headwind.

Of course, you know, better net growth if we really continued the pace we've got with the net growth, that could be a little bit of a drag. All those things considered, as John was mentioned, you know, we factor a lot of that into what the outlook and guidance we've put together. With an exit sort of mid-6% from the 4.3% in the Q1 , sort of that trend.

John Mazzoni
AVP in Equity Research, RBC Capital

Great. Thank you. Lastly, just on the performance in uniform. Could you just maybe break it down in terms of the new client wins and just what the level of the pricing path through was? Any color additionally on the volumes would be greatly appreciated.

Tom Ondrof
CFO, Aramark

Yeah. They're COVID base. You know, their portion of, I said mid-80s% for the overall company is where we are on the base recovery. They're obviously much higher. They're not at 100%, but not far off. You know, their pricing and net wins bring them back. Actually, in December was the first month since COVID hit. They've been above pre-COVID levels. Those net wins and pricing took them above that off of a base that was still just slightly below their fiscal 2019 numbers.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Neil Tyler with Redburn.

Neil Tyler
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Redburn

Good morning. A couple left, please. Firstly, back to the Merlin contract, just very quickly. When you spoke at the Capital Markets Day in December, how good was your visibility on achieving that contract? And I suppose the question really is, you know, to what extent that is already in the net new figure for this year. Second question, on B&I, you mentioned the client strategies aimed at persuading employees back to work. Can you give us your insights into the extent to which any of those strategies might drag on margins or enhance margins, please?

John Zillmer
CEO, Aramark

Sure. Well, in the B&I sector, we continue to see companies focused on getting their employees back to work. We're seeing an expansion of subsidized offerings and customized offerings in the B&I environment that continue to support the return to work strategies of the various employers. So many have adopted significant changes to their former approaches on food service, some subsidizing 100%, some providing free meals. Almost all of our B&I contracts are currently operating on a management fee basis. I think that's probably true of most of the industry, to be honest. We continue to see employers providing every opportunity and every incentive to bring employees back into the office.

You know, we're able to provide some very differentiated offerings. You know, we're implementing things like touchless pay and other opportunities, you know, delivery to workstations and a lot of different service changes in order to accommodate the needs of our various clients in B&I. I think the business, while it's slower than the others to recover because of the ramp and timing issue, I think ultimately the business has very strong prospects going forward. We're very pleased with the progress that B&I is making on their return to work. You know, with respect to the Merlin contract visibility, yes, when we were together, we did have a very clear understanding that this would be a significant opportunity.

We did not have a signed contract at that stage, and we were still in the process of Merlin working through their own internal discussions and their own internal notifications for their employees. That's why we didn't disclose it back in our Investor Day. You know, it's a very exciting win. You know, as we've talked about, you know, our net new business goals for this year are a significant step up over our net new business disclosed numbers from last year. We have very high expectations for this year, and we're off to a very strong start for net new business wins, both from a retention perspective as well as those new client wins.

you know, we're very, very pleased with where we are after the Q1 , both domestically and internationally.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Andrew Wittmann with Baird.

Andrew Wittmann
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Baird

Great. Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. John, well, pitchers and catchers are supposed to be reporting in a couple of weeks. We have a lockout situation there, and obviously the owners and the union will be figuring that out as time goes on. I was just kind of curious more about the right way to think about or how you're thinking about the attendance in ballparks for the important baseball season coming up. Most of the pro sports leagues have been down kind of single-digit percentages in attendance here recently versus their pre-COVID levels. Is that the right way, do you think, to think about baseball as we get into the summer outdoor season? Do you think that business can be at or above pre-COVID levels in terms of attendance?

John Zillmer
CEO, Aramark

Yeah, I have a strong belief that Major League Baseball, if it solves the lockout issue, will come back you know very strongly for the summer season. We anticipate and project attendance levels to be at pre-COVID levels in MLB with potentially the exception of the Canadian environment. It's just hard to say when that you know when that will resolve itself. You know, we do believe that outdoor events in particular, we saw that with the NFL this year, very strong attendance in the NFL teams. It's there's a lot of pent-up demand for baseball. We think it will perform well this year.

We have very high expectations from both a per capita spending perspective as we implement those new service offerings that we've been able to achieve in football and other venues. We hope for a strong season, and we hope that the Major League Baseball and the Players Association work through their issues and resolve it as quickly as possible. As you know, the labor secretary yesterday offered to go ahead and engage in a process to help the two sides. Hopefully, that stimulates some further dialogue and we're looking forward to a very strong baseball season.

Andrew Wittmann
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Baird

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you for those thoughts. Then Tom, just for you mentioned, I think in the prepared remarks a couple of times, the labor subsidies that you've been receiving internationally. I guess they were about $25 million. Presumably, those are baked into your margin outlook. I was just wondering, could you talk about any offsets to those? I mean, early on, a lot of those were just to keep people employed, even if the volumes for whatever they were doing weren't there. Have those volumes recovered enough that they now stand on their own? Or do you think adjustments need to be made to kind of offset some of the headwind from those prior subsidies?

Tom Ondrof
CFO, Aramark

No, it's still the same effect just as before, just a lot smaller. It's still recovering costs for folks to keep them, you know, employed and around the world as those volumes recover. It's waning. The number's getting smaller and smaller. As I said, you know, we expect those to be virtually nil, you know, as we finish the year here. It's the same concept as before.

Andrew Wittmann
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Baird

Okay, great. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Our next question comes from Hamzah Mazari with Jefferies.

Ryan Gunning
Equity Research Senior Associate, Jefferies

Hey, good morning. This is actually Ryan Gunning filling in for Hamza. My first question is just around competitive changes. Have you seen any changes in the competitive landscape from COVID and any in terms of like market share shifts among the big three or even regional competitors? As part of that, have you seen any change in the role of distributors like Sysco evolving further?

John Zillmer
CEO, Aramark

Yeah, I would say the competitive environment continues to be, you know, very balanced. I think all of us are working very aggressively to retain our existing clients and working hard to sell new opportunities. You know, I don't think there's a share shift going on. You know, I don't see significant share transitioning from one player to another, but we are pursuing those new opportunities as contracts come to market very aggressively. Nothing that I would say is different from the historical approach to doing business. The fact that we're able to capture some of these large self-op conversions, you know, is significant, but they're also being aggressively pursued by our competitors as well.

You know, from a distribution perspective, you know, I think the large players in the industry are working very hard to meet the demands of the environment, working very hard to you know, they have labor issues, they have supply chain issues. They're all working very hard to go ahead and solve those. But I don't see any structural changes in the industry. You know, they continue to serve us well. As you know, we're partnered with Sysco as our primary supplier in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., and Ireland. And they've worked very hard to be able to serve the needs that we have, to help manage through the supply chain efforts. We also have very strong relationships with alternative suppliers. US Foods is our primary supplier for Avendra.

You know, they work very hard and very diligently. You know, I think all in all, they're struggling with labor issues, with product issues, but they're working very hard to go ahead and solve for us. Nothing that really, that I would really call out as being structural change for that industry.

Ryan Gunning
Equity Research Senior Associate, Jefferies

Great. That's super helpful. Then my follow-up just in regards to headcount additions, can you talk about how you're thinking about headcount additions going forward in 2022 versus last year, and how much labor availability has been an issue for you guys?

John Zillmer
CEO, Aramark

Yeah. We, you know, certainly, you know, we live in the same environment as every hospitality company. Yes, there has been a labor shortage. We've worked very diligently to close those gaps. We've got a very strong talent acquisition organization, and I think that has positioned us extraordinarily well. I think in large part, the labor shortages in our operations have been resolved, and we're operating at pretty normalized levels. We've instituted a number of things to go ahead and make us a more attractive employer, and that we've implemented a number of things like same-day pay, which has impacted our ability to retain and recruit people in various industries, in higher education and others.

Our employees who come and work a shift can get paid at the end of that shift, and that's been a very attractive alternative. 26% of our eligible employees have signed up for that program. That's been very, you know, very successful in helping to stimulate additional staffing. I would say we're in pretty good shape, but we'll continue to be out there acquiring talent as aggressively as possible.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to Mr. Zillmer for any closing remarks.

John Zillmer
CEO, Aramark

Thank you very much, everybody, for joining this morning. We're extraordinarily excited about 2022. Off to a very strong start from a new business perspective. We're very pleased. If I would summarize the quarter in this way, it is as we expected. We have you know very high level of confidence going into the balance of the year around our ability to execute against our strategies, and we're looking forward to getting together at the end of the next quarter. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you for participating. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.

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