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Morgan Stanley's 14th Annual Laguna Conference

Sep 15, 2026

Summary

Significant progress was highlighted in scaling autonomous trucking, with second-generation hardware enabling cost reductions and a ramp to 1,000+ trucks annually. Strong OEM partnerships, accelerating customer demand, and a supportive regulatory environment position the business for commercial expansion and a transition to a Driver as a Service model by 2027.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. Thank you. Welcome everyone back to the 14th Annual Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference. Over the next three days, we have a ton of freight transportation and airlines content for you. Very, very happy to kick off with Aurora Innovation and Co-founder and CEO, Chris Urmson. Chris, welcome back to Laguna.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Glad to be here. Thanks so much for having me.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Absolutely. Maybe if you are unfamiliar with the Aurora story, we believe Aurora is a leader in autonomous trucking, if not autonomous driving of any kind, in the U.S. today, maybe the world today. Again, it has been a great year for the stock. It has been a great year with commercial progress. I think 2025 was a great year for you. 2026 has kind of built on top of that.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

That's right.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Maybe it's a great way to start with just kind of recapping the commercial milestones you've hit so far, and where the story is right now.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah. Again, thanks for having me. Appreciate folks taking the time out of the day to come listen to us today. It is just an incredible moment for us as a company. We're at this inflection point where, for the last better part of a decade, we have been toiling away to make safety-critical self-driving capabilities available to deliver the benefits of self-driving technology safely, quickly, and broadly. Last year, we had the major milestone of beginning driverless operations. This April we launched our second-generation hardware, which is really about scaling and building the business. This inflection point is real. With this hardware now, we expect to build on order of 1,500 tractors. With that, we work with amazing customers, FedEx, Werner, Hirschbach, Detmar, McLane, Schneider.

If you are in trucking, hopefully we will get a chance to work with you, and we're very privileged to work for these amazing companies. This new technology, more reliable, lower cost for us, which allows us to get to ultimately our profitability goals. I t sets us up to build over the course of next year into 2027, where we'll launch our third-generation hardware, which will unlock true automotive scale, tens of thousands of units. Really amazing moment for us as a company.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Congratulations on that. Maybe a couple of follow-ups on the second-generation here. Expect to drive a 50% + reduction in hardware costs. I think 20- 25 trucks is the run rate right now. You plan to exit the year with a 200 + or 200-ish—

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

—run rate. Like you said, the capacity is for 1,000 +. How do we see that second-gen ramping and handing off to third-generation next year?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah. As you said, we expect to end the quarter with 20, 25 trucks in operation, which is a huge step from the handful we have had for a while. In Q4, we expect to be producing the trucks at a rate of 20 trucks a week.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

That's very exciting. That's working with our partner, Roush, taking International Trucks, delivering them up to our facilities with them in Livonia. Upfitting those, turning them into automated trucks, and then getting them out into the market, serving customers. That ramp will continue to grow, and we expect, like you said, to be about 1,000 units a year run rate with them. Very excitingly, in Q1 of next year, we expect to be launching the Volvo VNL Autonomous . They have said publicly they expect to do that in Q1, and they expect to have 300 + trucks on the road next year.

I can tell you those will predominantly be driven, if not all driven, by the Aurora Driver. T hat scale will kind of get us to on order of 1,000 + trucks end of next year. R eally, the investment we've been making with AUMOVIO will then kick in.

AUMOVIO, for those of you who are not familiar, is one of the world's leading Tier 1 manufacturers. They're a spinout of the T ier 1 business from Continental. We've been working with them for many years to put in place the supply chain, the manufacturing, and design this third-generation hardware, which will take yet another step function in cost out of the system. That will truly be scalable. Our strategy has been to bridge from first-generation hardware to prove the concept that we could build ourselves. Second- generation to bridge the gap between what we can build ourselves versus where a Tier 1 is actually interested in engaging, right? A Tier 1 doesn't get out of bed for fewer than 10,000 units a year or tens of thousands of units a year.

We're kind of on the low end of that for the near term. This second-generation hardware allows us to bridge the gap between 10s and 10,000s. It allows us to get the customer demand in place to actually support the supply that'll come off the line with them. O f course, that Tier 1 partnership with AUMOVIO really allows us to fit nicely into the manufacturing supply chain for our OEM partners, right? It's all well and good to build the technology.

It's good to be able to manufacture it, but to really actually support an OEM, having a Tier 1 partner who knows how to do that is profound and this is kind of core to the way we've built our business is focus on what we do best in world, s orry about that, w hich is the driving technology and then work in partnership with others who know how to do the other parts of the business that enable it to ultimately flourish.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. It sounds like you're pretty set for next year with AUMOVIO and the third-generation . Just maybe one more follow-up on second-generation here. Is it just bridging the hardware gap between first-generation and third-generation , or are there learnings to be had? Are there tests you're running, or what's the ramp like?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

It's really about commercialization, r ight, a nd building that. I t both reduces the cost of the hardware, the bill of materials, but it's also roughly triple the durability of what we had with our first-generation hardware. The combination of that durability and reducing cost helps drive down the amortized cost per mile, which gets us to this point where we expect to be able to be profitable on a unit economic basis.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Let's shift gears and talk about commercial momentum. You've done 6 million miles in total, almost half a million fully driverless miles here. You announced Hirschbach and McLane Food orders earlier this year. You've announced others with Detmar and Value Truck and Charger Logistics. The logos are starting to show up.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yep.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

How would you characterize what that process has been like and whether this eventually becomes a bit of a virtuous circle?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah, it is accelerating, is how I'd characterize it, right? We are fortunate that there were some amazing companies who were willing to take a bet on us when the technology wasn't yet proven, have been along the journey with us. They've been learning, we've been learning. It's been, I think, mutually beneficial on that front. I f you look at the cycle from going from conversation to kind of order, it was years, right, where we would run the pilots. We were generating commercial income from that, but it wasn't what we would think of as building a business. At this point, when we have a conversation with a customer, that conversation kind of gets to the point, and then we're handing them at the end of that first conversation, "Here's a contract to start."

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

All the conversations we've had have really been selective. It's been about, is this a customer who wants to embrace the technology and actually, importantly, has the capacity to do so at a reasonable scale?

It's been exciting. We've seen kind of momentum. We were able to share that we're fully allocated for 2026. There's nothing like a little bit of FOMO to help move the conversations along. T he proof points stack up, right? Our customers are all rational, thoughtful folks. They can see kind of conceptually the benefit of this for their business, but they need to see it de-risked. They need to see that the technology works. They want to see proof of it actually operating in their business. They want to see, is their neighbor using it, right?

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

I think as we get more and more evidence of that piling up, and we 're seeing that quarter on quarter, the energy and enthusiasm is growing fantastically.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. Maybe a couple of follow-ups on that. On the last point, again, shout-out to our big autonomous trucking deep dive report we published on Friday that Nancy worked on. We kind of—

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Thank you.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

—characterized it as a lot of the stakeholders in the industry need to dot their i's and cross their t's over the next 12 months, until we hit the run rate commercial production here. Is that a fair characterization, and can you kind of help unpack what that dotting of i's ?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah. I think, first, it's important to recognize, and I haven't had a chance to read the whole report, but what I have seen of it is pretty phenomenal, so thank you for that. It's good to have folks helping make the case for what we believe in as well. First, it's important to recognize that the customers it's not a homogeneous set, right? There are different risk tolerances across that. There 's different scale and entrepreneurial energy, let me go with, about how quickly they want to bring this technology into their business. For some, it's actually a relatively quick process, right?

They come, and we talk them through our safety case. We talk them through all the work we do. We talk through the economic opportunity, and generally, this is with the relatively small but still good-sized carriers, and those move very quickly. You'd look at a customer who has tens of thousands of trucks. They're going to be a little more deliberate, like you would expect. In all those cases, if you look at one of those potential customers, having third parties come in and do an audit of what we've done, having in-depth conversations with our engineering teams, having a lot of conversations, of course, with our corporate teams and our business development teams. I do think that what happens, and that I think is not unexpected for new technology coming to market.

As you have more of these marquee players say, "Yes, this has got my blessing," then I think that we will, and we are, seeing that cycle kind of compress, which I think is important for us in the long term.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Following up again on something you said, which is the other side of the argument about how you want an appropriate customer partner as well.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

What are those attributes that you look for in signing up with someone?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah. Again, there's an importance that they are able to achieve a level of scale. We're not in the business of doing demos. We're pretty convinced the technology works. It's where can we actually go build traction, and where does it allow us to learn in this early stage of the business, and where do we see a committed partner who's going to be able to go through what will be inevitable little bumps along the way of deploying something new in their market? We also need to have belief that they're going to be willing to transition from a state where we own and operate the asset, what we call TaaS, to Driver as a Service, where they own and operate the asset.

The good news is that's not really a high bar to get over. Most carriers believe that they are effective and have an advantage in the way that they operate and own those assets. We need to know that they're going to make that step.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Maybe switching gears here, obviously you spoke about your customer partnerships. You spoke about the AUMOVIO partnership, the OEM side, right?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

You mentioned earlier that Volvo has committed to manufacturing 300 trucks off a commercial line next year. You said the very vast majority of all of them are going to be Aurora-powered .

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yes.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

What's the PACCAR relationship like?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

What are some of the milestones there? M aybe if you can talk about kind of other OEMs and kind of how do you see this evolving over time?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah. Today, our deepest relationships are with PACCAR and Volvo, and together they represent about 50% of the trucks in the U.S. market. With Volvo, we've been working for several years and have seen the fruits of this labor pay off, where we're working to not just integrate with the truck, but integrate into their manufacturing line. That is a big step, right? There's a lot more than just kind of bolt some stuff on the truck and hope it works, right? Actually making sure that we have all the processes and procedures and that they can actually assemble the thing aligned with their takt time alignment. T hat's been a multi-year effort, and we will see that with the trucks that are coming off the line now and the 300 next year.

They will ultimately transition to our third-generation hardware from AUMOVIO as well, and that will really unlock what they would think of as commercial scale. T hat's exciting and moving forward. With PACCAR, we continue to work closely with them. Those of you who follow PACCAR know that they will not announce when they're going to launch something effectively until they've launched it.

I can't say more about the timeline for that, but what I can say is that we expect them to launch our third-generation hardware. Of course, we expect that to be a line-side install as well. O f course, we also work with International.

This is a bit of a different model, where we are actually taking a stock truck from International, taking it to our partner Roush up in Livonia in Michigan. There, we're adding our by-wire capability, we're adding our driverless capability, the Aurora Driver kit, onto it, and then delivering that to customers. That has allowed us to move safely but quickly to meet the customer need we have in market. We see this as a technique we can continue to use for the foreseeable future. Ultimately, we'd love, of course, to work with International to line-side it directly with them, b ut we'll figure out when that comes along. F inally, the fourth potential partner is Daimler and Freightliner in the U.S.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

They have 40% market share. They're clearly a market leader in the space. We're the leader in autonomous trucking. It makes a lot of sense to work together, and hopefully at some point we'll be able to do so.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. That's very exciting. Just on the OEM partnership itself, again, you spoke about what do you expect from a prospective customer. What do you expect from a prospective OEM partner? How closely involved are you? Do you help them design the basics of the truck, or the steering, braking as well? Do you just give them a bunch of ODD kind of parameters?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Just hope and YOLO it? No, we don't do that.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Chewing gum and duct tape. Yeah.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

N o, we work very closely with them. We have been for many years. Again, I said earlier, we believe we are best in world at delivering the driving capability for these trucks. We work with partners. If they've been around for 80 years, they know what they're doing. They're very competent. We want to complement them. W e work with them in helping define the requirements and specifications. They understand the trucking business better than we do, of course. They've been at it for a long time, so they can bring that side of it. We can help make sure that they're meeting what we see as the necessary requirements to deliver a safe product. W e're very intimately engaged with them in those conversations and have been for a long time.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Maybe switching gears a little bit and talking about some of the financials here. 2026 revenue guidance, $14 million-$16 million. 4Q expected to contribute over half of that. Obviously, very back-uploaded as you ramp up to 200 trucks. Exiting with 200 trucks implies about an $80 million TaaS revenue run rate, which is kind of a healthy starting point for next year. How does that TaaS-to-DaaS transition look like in 2027? H ow does that change the financial profile?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah, just a reminder for those folks who aren't around us all the time, so T ransportation as a Service, we own and operate the asset. We get paid basically as a 3PL. We don't go out and seek the business from shippers, but we contract to the carriers to provide capacity into their business. In Driver as a Service, we basically provide the driver, and so it looks very much like the model that our carrier customers and private fleet customers think about today, where they buy a truck, and then they pay someone to drive it. It just happens to be that they pay Aurora to drive it.

We like the Transportation as a Service model as a way to introduce the technology to customers in a very white-glove way, in a way that allows them to learn and experience it, and then be able to make the commitment into their fleet purchase plans. We expect to cap the number of trucks we have on our Transportation as a Service fleet at about 500, if not less, r ight?

We do not want to be a trucking company. That is not our business. We want to support trucking companies and grow their businesses. Over the course of 2027, we expect to transition from TaaS to DaaS. We will keep a TaaS fleet because it will be a tool that we can use in new customer acquisition and help kind of grow and help them learn. We don't expect to scale it. By the end of 2027, we expect the majority of the vehicles in our fleet to be Driver as a Service, so owned and operated by customers.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. On that note, on the liquidity side, you ended 2Q with approximately $1.2 billion in liquidity. It gives you plenty of runway into 2027.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

How are you thinking about capital needs, the ATM program, how you use that a s you get up to that catalyst?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah. We feel very good about the balance sheet we have. It's a pretty strong position to be in. We look at the ATM, and we've found ways to use that. We have historically used it and intend to use it to cover things like the tax on RSUs so we can kind of spread that out rather than have the vendor we use for RSU management kind of hit it all in the market all in one day.

We're also using it to cover our cash bonus. Historically, we've used it as a way to fund the business, and we've been pretty capital efficient in doing that. W e'll expect to continue to have that tool available. We do expect at some point to probably do something a little more structured to be the kind of last capital we ultimately have to raise for the business.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Just on that note, how are you guys with resources, headcount, chips—

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

—kind of everything you need to scale up, because it seems like you're ready to go from your side, b ut the supply chain needs ?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah. It would be great if people stopped building data centers.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

We will send that message through the quarter.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

No, we're managing through it. The run on RAM is impacting everybody, and that's certainly something we're navigating. Similarly, with slots for CPUs and, again, access those. It's, again, something we're navigating, but we feel like it's navigable.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Again, it would be easier if we didn't have to deal with.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

This is the real world.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

In terms of talent, I couldn't be prouder of the talent we have at the company. I would take us pound for pound against anyone else, right? We're past the part of being a research lab. That was a long time ago, and we're now in the part of industrializing technology.

That takes effort. The actual research part of making it work, it's probably 10% of the overall effort it takes to actually deliver a thing and deliver it in a way that is actually useful to customers. We're excited about that. We're on order of 2,000 people today.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, switching gears, I want to talk about the competitive landscape for a little bit. Obviously, very, very early innings here. In our view, you guys are clear leaders in the space, but I think we' ve also been very clear in our view that we don't think it's going to be a winner-take-all space. I think you agree with that.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

It's too big a market, right? It's a trillion-dollar market.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Absolutely.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

It would be irrational to think it's one player, right?

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

H ow do you see yourselves competing with other players out there? There's been a lot of talk about the old-school way of doing driverless vehicles, which is—

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Cool. Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

—actual rubber on road and testing this thing in the real world versus purely simulation versus a combination thereof. How do you see all of that changing?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Do your customers care about how you bring their truck to market?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

No, they care that it's safe. They care that it's going to be valuable and useful for their business.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

That is what the customer cares about, and I think that's the important thing to recognize. One, we do all of the cool AI stuff.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

W e put in a framework that we call Verifiable AI that allows us to ensure that we can validate the system and that it's going to be safe on the road, and that we're not going to end up one day with it having a hallucination and driving into a ditch.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

We can't afford that, and so we have to architect the system to minimize the risk of that. We're seeing in real time some of the challenges in alignment that you see in LLM world. I think we've been thoughtful about how to architect the system to constrain it to behave in ways that we actually want, r ight?

That comes from things, even the way the structure of the models enables us. At the end of the day, we've been very clear from literally day one of the company that this was a data game, and it was a learning game. L earning in the right framework was critical, and so we've invested in that over many years, and we continue to invest and advance in that. We've also been very clear from day one that simulation was essential for this.

We have our own internal simulation tools and stacks, and simulation is a span of technologies, and so we of course use that. When we launched the second-generation Aurora Driver 2 system, I think we put it through 18 million and some tests. The vast majority of that, of course, is online simulation tests of various forms. It's the only way that you can do this, and we've been clear about that for the better part of a decade now, right? You're not going to get, i t's kind of entertaining. There was a point early in our company's history where people were beating on us for not having enough vehicles on the road.

How can you compete with these other people who've got that? Now everybody's like, "Oh, you do it all in simulation." It's like, of course you do it in simulation, but you also do need to have it out in the real world.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Otherwise, you're playing a video game, and that doesn't deliver a whole lot of value.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Understood. How do you see this business evolving or unfolding in the first few innings—

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

—of the rollout here? Obviously, you are not exclusive to your OEM partners. Your OEM partners are not exclusive to you. Do you think everybody ends up working with everybody else, or it's like a 60/40, 60/30/20?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah. As I look at the landscape today, I think we have a multi-year lead relative to our competition. Part of that is the technical driving competence that we have. Part of that, though, is things that don't sound sexy in an AI-centric world around supply chain and manufacturing base. It takes between three and seven years to take a new capability and integrate it into a vehicle, design the parts. We've been working with AUMOVIO for five years now, I think. There isn't really a shortcut there. As far as when I look out at our competitive landscape, I don't really see in folks that are working in trucking, with the exception of Torc, someone who actually has a supply base that can actually produce vehicles at scale.

We will be producing at modest scale this year and significant scale next year. I don't know that anyone else has a path to that. T hat feels really pretty compelling. I also think that the experience we are getting from being in the real world with customers, understanding what matters, there is a flywheel that will accelerate our advantage there. The more we understand the customer, the better the first experience with the next customer is.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

The bigger the gap is from someone who has just showed the technology demonstration to the commercial product. I think that matters. U ltimately, we're the only people running driverless trucks on public roads today.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

We do that day in and day out.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

I f eel pretty good about that, and my expectation is, at some point, I will always be excited to talk about the technology because that's where I come from, and it's cool. A t some point, what's going to matter is how many trucks we have on the road, how useful are they for customers, and how much revenue is that generating for us and our partners.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Understood.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yep.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Any questions from the audience? Anyone? Mike's hand. Nancy, c an we get a mic out here?

Speaker 3

I want to discuss the regulatory environment a bit. I know California recently joined the majority of U.S. states permitting driverless trucks. I guess, how would you characterize that environment right now, and what are the remaining gating factors for broader commercial deployment?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah. I think in a word, generally enthusiastic, right? The majority of states in the U.S. today, we can operate driverlessly. It will be on us to deploy and scale into those and align that with customer need. What we're seeing, as you mentioned, in California, after about a decade, more than a decade, has now put regulations in place that allow automated trucks. We 've received our first permit for that. I'd say it's going to take us between 12 and 18 months to go through the regulatory process to be fully certified in California. Across the Sun Belt, the majority of those states, we either have or have a very clear path to have the permits in hand to be able to operate there.

At a federal level, we're seeing tremendous support, whether it's from Secretary Duffy and his Safe Innovation Agenda, where we're seeing real motion of the Department of Transportation, or whether it's in BUILD America 250 Act , I think is what it's called, which passed, I think, 62- 2. There, it actually puts in place a framework for automated vehicles, commercial automated vehicle trucking. Even out of the White House, we're seeing the Vice President speak positively about automated trucks. The regulatory environment feels very conducive right now.

Speaker 3

Great. Thank you.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Thank you.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Chris, maybe a follow-up on that. What does that federal support really mean on the ground for you guys? Because driving regulations in the U.S. are famously a patchwork of state laws.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Does the federal support here and kind of having a set of federal guidelines, so you have guidelines now, you'll have a law with the new thing. Does that help clear the path for states to follow quickly, o r how does that change things?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah. M aybe just a quick primer on how this works. In the U.S., the federal government is responsible for the safety of the vehicle, and the states are responsible for the safe operation of the vehicle. That's why you have a state driver's license, but your car passes federal FMVSS regulations. What we do is kind of in a blurry middle, and so that creates some of the confusion. I believe, it's been a little while since I read the act, but the BUILD America 250 Act, it creates an opportunity for preemption, which could then be used to help kind of homologate regulations across states.

I think more importantly, though, is it creates something for state regulators to point to. This has been one of the conversations that we've heard for a long time is folks in government are working their butts off trying to do the right thing and trying to help keep both our roads safe and move America forward. They recognize in many cases that they don't have the technical acumen to appropriately regulate these vehicles.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Being able to point to the federal agency that does allows them to model or align regulation in the states with federal regulation or be able to point to and say, "The feds have got this. We can be silent on it and operate." I don't think it's a snap your fingers.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

I do think over the longer term, it'll create alignment across the country. Yes, as someone who has to work across many states because our business is intrinsically interstate commerce, it would be easier if there was one regulation. T his is a thing we can work through. It just adds a little structural cost where we have to manage that, b ut it's a thing we're working through without much difficulty.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. Any other questions from the audience? Chris, I want to follow up with you on just going back to the topic of commercial traction here. Obviously, a big theme of this conference on the transportation side is going to be the freight cycle as we are in right now with—

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

—a lot of these supply-side pressures, whether it's the immigration regulations for drivers or the Montgomery case verdict that's putting a lot of scrutiny on just examining driver standards as a whole.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

How much has what is happening to the cycle as a whole changed your customer behavior, and them maybe now taking a much more serious look at autonomous trucking versus before?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah, I would say that for all of our customers, there has not been a question strategically about the trends. Cost of labor goes up. The amount of freight we need to move increases. The argument, strategically, was clear of the value of automated vehicles. When you take supply out of the market, on the driver side, that makes it more acute in the near term.

That certainly helps move the needle when you see freight prices start to recover. That gives them a little more breathing room to think beyond how do I solve the next quarter and start to think.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

I think that that is certainly a good tailwind for us, but i t doesn't really change the underlying economics and underlying benefit, right? That labor has always been a limit in this. Automated vehicles are going to complement people driving trucks for as far in the future as I can see. All of our customers think safety first, and then how do we have this work alongside our people?

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

There's not one that said, "Boy, I'm really looking for automated vehicles so I could move on from the great staff I have." It's all like, "I just need to complement them." Of course, the policies where we are reducing the non-domiciled CDLs in America—

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

—that's again, pinching this further. T he combination of steady supply, increased utilization, we see a 10% improvement, like-for-like , in fuel economy between the automated vehicles and people driving trucks. Again, with today's economics, that's a pretty big deal.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

The overall package, we think, just drives dramatic improvement in both the revenue and the profitability of our customers. I am a believer that in the next five years, if you are not using our stuff, you just will not be competitive.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Y eah. It's both tactical tailwinds, but strategically, it didn't really move the conversation.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. In the couple of minutes we have left here, maybe two round-out questions from me. You're obviously at a very, very key inflection point in the story, going into the start of pseudo-commercial production next year. You have an Investor Day coming up next week.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yep.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Not to steal your thunder from the event, but what can we expect? Kind of give us a little sneak peek.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah, I'm not going to do that.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I tried.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

No, you tried. I think we look forward to hosting folks there. We'll be down in Dallas. What I will tell you is, there's nothing quite like riding in a driverless truck. A 70,000 lbs thing moving down the road at 70 mi an hour. I've been doing this for a while, and every time the eight-year-old boy in me goes, "Boy, big truck." T he person who spent their life working on automated vehicles is like, "This is incredible."

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Being able to share that and we can talk about all these academic analyses and this and that on the approach. I think there is a real element of seeing is believing.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

It's pretty darn believable.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

To the point of all the academic analyses, including what we put in our report.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

I did not mean it that way.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

No . Again, my point is that for now, I think a lot of those benefits kind of exist in, I'd say, almost a theoretical realm until you're actually experiencing the trucks, running the pilots, seeing the data. Can you just help unpack what kind of conversations and what kind of work is going on behind the scenes between the four stakeholders involved, right? There 's autonomous technology companies like yourselves.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

There's the truck OEMs, there's the fleet operators, and there's the shipper, r ight? F our stakeholders involved.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

What are the kind of conversations that are going on? Who is asking you what kind of questions? What kind of information is being shared?

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

That investors may not appreciate, because it may not be coming out in the public domain.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

No, I think that the most compelling thing to me is that our customers want more, r ight? That, to me, says that we have crossed the threshold from, "That's a cute little science project I want to experiment with" to " I'm going to buy 500 of my 3,000-truck fleet and make it autonomous."

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Right? The conversations with our OEMs are how can we get there more quickly? As they're starting to hear more customer pull, which is great. It's no longer a push of this, you'd be useful. It's customers going and saying, "I would like this. How do I get it?" With our carriers, it's really about, we want this, how soon can you go to this location for us or that location for us? W e're balancing that between the different demands we're seeing from different customers, and how do we actually roll this out in a way that ensures the quality of the product, the safety of the product, and the speed at which we want to unravel it.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. Chris, our brave new world is upon us. Thank you for being here. I'm really looking forward to riding in the truck next week.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

It'll be fun.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Absolutely.

Chris Urmson
Co-founder and CEO, Aurora Innovation

Cool. Awesome. Thank you.