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Earnings Call: Q3 2019

Nov 5, 2019

Speaker 1

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Avantor Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Helen O'Donnell. Thank you.

Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on today's call. Our speakers today are Michael Stubblefield, President and Chief Executive Officer and Tom Slosek, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The press release and the presentation accompanying this call are available on our investor website at ir.avantorsciences.com. A replay of this webcast will also be available on our website following this call.

Following our prepared remarks, we will open the line for questions. I would like to note that we will be making some forward looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate may occur in the future. These forward looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in our SEC filings. Actual results might differ materially from any forward looking statements that we make today. These forward looking statements speak only as of the date that they are made, And we do not assume any obligation to update these forward looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events and developments or otherwise.

This call will include a discussion of non GAAP measures. A reconciliation of these non GAAP measures can be found in the appendix to the presentation. With that, I will now turn the call over to Michael.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Helen, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our Q3 earnings call. Let's get right into the performance for the quarter. I'm on Slide 3. Organic revenue growth was 2.4% for the period, which reflected a couple of factors.

First, our strong growth in the biopharma end market continued in the quarter. We were up 7% on an organic basis and are up 10% for the year. You may recall that biopharma represents approximately 50% of our annual revenues and continued momentum in this end market is a critical element of our model. This growth was partially offset by a low single digit decline in education and government, which had significant growth in 2018 driven by the initiation of a new customer contract. Tom will share more details later, but this contract affected the year over year comparison by more than 200 basis points.

Turning to adjusted EBITDA, we continue to make excellent progress on managing product pricing relative to product cost inflation and delivering the synergies from the VWR acquisition. However, the positive impact of these factors was offset by foreign currency headwinds and adverse product mix, which together diluted margins by approximately 100 basis points in the quarter. The one off issue in Education and Government that I mentioned previously also contributed to the margin performance. We will provide more details in a few minutes, but we are confident that our long term growth and margin expansion model is intact. Q3 was an excellent quarter for earnings growth as our adjusted earnings per share increased 49%, driven by our operating performance and the ongoing benefits on interest expense from our deleveraging.

We remain on track to deliver adjusted earnings in the range of 0 point 5 5 dollars to $0.58 per share for the full year. It was also an outstanding quarter for cash flow generation and continued deleveraging. Our unlevered free cash flow in the quarter was $206,000,000 representing 127 percent of adjusted net income. Working capital was the main contributor to the free cash flow improvement. Net leverage declined to 4.8 times in the quarter, down from 5 times at the end of the second quarter and from 7 times at the beginning of the year.

In addition to the impact from the IPO earlier this year, we are on track to reduce leverage through operational performance by almost a full turn this year. While we are pleased with the progress we made in the quarter, there were some notable headwinds worth mentioning. The quarter started off somewhat slow and we saw a modest tightening in capital expenditures, particularly in Europe. Industrial end markets which represent approximately 25% of our revenue also continue to be soft around the world. Despite these challenges and excluding the one time impact we encountered in our education and government end market, we were able to deliver mid single digit growth in our core business.

Also, we were encouraged by the momentum of our business in September that has carried forward into the Q4. Our exposure to biopharma, including the high growth bioproduction space, our global presence, broad customer access and a highly recurring revenue profile make for a resilient model that performs well across economic cycles. I am moving to Slide 4, where on the left you can see highlighted the sales growth, synergy execution, adjusted EPS growth and continued balance sheet deleveraging that I previously discussed. I would like to take a minute to cover some non financial highlights. We were pleased to expand our share of wallet with several existing BioPharma customers.

One notable example is an existing account which we previously only served in Europe. After understanding the value our integrated offering brought to its European business, this global biopharma customer decided to expand the contract on a worldwide basis. We also won multi year contract extensions with several top tier biopharma accounts and successfully on boarded several new customer accounts including some important wins in CRO and education space. During the quarter, we began work to expand our innovation center in Bridgewater, New Jersey. By nearly doubling our footprint, we will be adding capabilities to support our customers in the areas of downstream processing and cell and gene therapy.

We also began work to increase production capacity for high purity, low endotoxin sugars used in both the upstream and downstream workflows of the biologics manufacturing process. We anticipate that this new capacity will be online by the end of 2020. Our digital offering remains a key driver for our business model and continually enhancing user experience is a priority. We implemented additional improvements throughout the 3rd quarter and see additional online traffic leading to revenue growth across our platform. In September, we announced that Bjorn Hoffman, the leader of our manufacturing and procurement teams plans to step down from Avantor later this year to join New Mountain Capital, our private equity sponsor who continues to own approximately 20% of the company.

Bjorn has been a valuable member of our executive team for the past 5 years and we appreciate his contributions to our growth and execution. The good news is that Bjorn will be with us for as long as we need him and will be available to us even after his official transition. With Bjorn's departure, we are pleased to welcome Tanya Fox, who recently joined as Executive Vice President, Global Operations and Supply Chain. Tanya brings a wealth of experience in supply chain management from her prior roles at Johnson and Johnson as well as at Avon, Walmart and Ford. Her leadership and experience will be critical in helping us build a fully integrated end to end supply chain that will further strengthen our overall value proposition to our customers around the world.

With that, let me turn it over to Tom.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Michael. I'm on Slide 5, where you can see the 2.4% organic growth and the breakdown by region. The quarter was a bit lumpy with low single digit growth in July and low single digit contraction in August. However, we were pleased to see this trend reverse in September when growth returned to the mid single digit levels. And it is important to note the challenging comparisons we had in the quarter considering the Americas stands out as this is where the effect of the 2018 one off that Michael mentioned materialized.

For this single account in the education and government space, we had more than $40,000,000 of sales in the Q3 of 2018, reflecting the ramp up at the start of this new contract. In 2019, a large portion of the revenue for this contract was recognized in the Q2. Additionally, not all the Q3 2018 volume repeated as some portion of the ramp up was to establish a threshold level of inventory to service the business. Absent this factor, the Americas growth would have exceeded 4% in the quarter and the growth for the entire company would have approximated 5%. Europe was strong at 4.5% with growth across all of our end markets including high single digit growth in biopharma.

EMEA at 8% grew a bit more modestly than we have seen recently, although biopharma reported low double digit growth and we had a very strong month in September growing well into the double digits. Let me move to Slide 6 for a very quick look at sales by end market and product group. As you can see, biopharma grew in the high single digits while healthcare and advanced technologies and applied materials were flat. Education and Government, as previously noted, had a low single digit decline. By product group, Proprietary Materials and Consumables declined low single digits, which in large part reflected the Americas Education and Government one off we have been describing.

I will talk more about this product group when covering our adjusted EBITDA performance. 3rd party materials and consumables grew mid single digits. The services and specialty procurement group grew by low double digits and the Equipment and Instrumentation Group grew low single digits where we saw customers moderate capital expenditures. Slide 7 is a summary of our adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow and adjusted EPS performance. As Michael indicated, we did well on product pricing versus product cost inflation and on synergy realization, but had about 100 basis points of dilution from adverse foreign exchange and mix.

I'll cover this in more detail on the next slide. Cash flow in the quarter was strong. Unlevered free cash flow was 206,000,000 dollars up 48% and is up 34% for the year to date. Our leverage position continues to improve as we ended the quarter at 4.8 down from approximately 5 times at the end of the second quarter. We expect to see further progress in the 4th quarter.

Last, the 49% increase in our adjusted earnings per share reflects the operational performance and the ongoing benefits on interest expense from our deleveraging. Slide 8 shows the adjusted EBITDA bridge from the Q3 of 2018 to the Q3 of 2019. Starting with the $13,700,000 price volume factor, we had flat volume in the quarter reflecting the netting of some very strong growth in biopharma against the negative impact of the one off in our Americas Education and Government Business. Single use and serum volumes in the Americas were particularly strong. Product pricing relative to product cost inflation performance was also strong, particularly in the Americas.

This was offset by timing of supplier and customer rebates. The productivity factor reflects our continued realization of the SG and A synergies from the VWR acquisition around $9,000,000 in the quarter largely offset by non COGS inflation and approximately $5,000,000 in strategic investments. These investments are mostly targeted to customer facing sales and marketing functions and to new supply chain facilities to support growth in the EMEA region. Sales mix had an adverse impact in the quarter, but it's something we view as temporary in nature. Part of our margin enhancement strategy is to drive the sales of our proprietary products which are accretive to margins.

We have been very successful in doing this and in fact for the 6 quarters preceding this quarter, the sales growth rate for proprietary products had exceeded the sales growth rate for 3rd party products. But in the case of this Q3, sales of our proprietary products were down as I mentioned earlier. The one off sales decline in the Americas Education and Government business was the main factor here. This customer volume is largely comprised of proprietary products. Similarly in the Americas, we experienced a normalization in sales of proprietary materials to the healthcare space compared to the Q3 of 2018 when sales of these materials grew 25%.

Foreign currency is the last bridge item I want to cover. We've been experiencing foreign currency headwinds all year. The impact was the most intense in the Q1 when, for example, we were comparing the 2018 euro exchange rate of 1.23 to 2019 at 1.14, a $0.09 gap at that time. For the Q3, this difference was down to 0 point 0 $5 so $1.16 versus $1.11 but it still created a $6,000,000 year over year headwind for us. We expect this impact to narrow further in the 4th quarter.

Combining the $6,000,000 FX impact and the $9,000,000 mix impact, we realized an approximate 100 basis point contraction in margins from 2018. This is not something we expect to continue. Slide 9 has our segment results. As I indicated earlier, the 1% organic revenue growth rate in the Americas exceeded 4% absent the one off revenue decline in Education and Government Business. We also exited the quarter with mid single digit growth for the month of September.

We enjoyed another solid quarter for the biopharma business, our largest customer group with sales up mid single digits reflecting new customers and strong volume growth from customer spending on research and development. The bioproduction business also remained strong with low double digit growth. This strength was partially offset by a mid single digit contraction in healthcare which reflected the normalization I mentioned earlier in sales of proprietary materials to the healthcare space. Absent the normalization from this customer, Q3 sales for Americas Healthcare would have been up 3%. We experienced mid single digit contraction in education and government.

Apart from the one off item, we actually experienced improved performance in the remainder of this end market especially in higher education where we had some recent customer wins. The advanced technologies and applied materials end market was down low single digits driven by high single digit decreases from food and beverage, agriculture, semiconductor and chemical customers reflecting softness in the industrial sector. This was partially offset by growth in our aerospace and defense platforms. Despite the more challenging revenue comparison, the Americas region reported an improvement in the management EBITDA margin rate, which reflected strong product pricing relative to product cost inflation and SG and A savings driven by the BWR synergies and lower incentive compensation accruals. These were partially offset by the adverse mix factors and timing of customer rebates that I referenced in the overall adjusted EBITDA margin bridge.

In Europe, net sales increased approximately 4.5% on an organic basis with roughly equal contributions from improved pricing and volume growth. Sales to the biopharma end market increased high single digits from broad based strength across strategic customer accounts and new customer wins. The Healthcare segment experienced mid single digit growth largely due to strong sales of proprietary materials partially offset by declines in 3rd party consumables and equipment and instrumentation products. Sales to education and government consumers grew in the low single digits. We were successful in winning new government projects but these gains were partially offset by contraction in equipment and instrumentation sales.

Advanced Technologies and Applied Materials recorded low single digit growth driven by higher sales of 3rd party materials and consumables and relatively flat sales in electronic materials. Europe had a modest improvement in the management EBITDA margin rate. We had strong product pricing relative to product cost inflation performance, modest volume leverage, a favorable mix of sales and SG and A savings driven by the VWR synergies and lower incentive compensation accruals. Offsetting these were the unfavorable transactional foreign currency headwinds and the timing of supplier rebates. The EMEA region reported organic sales up 8.2% due to growth in biopharma and advanced technologies and applied materials, our 2 largest end markets.

We exited the quarter with over 30% growth for the month of September. The biopharma business experienced low double digit growth driven by increased volume in lab products primarily through sales of 3rd party materials and consumables. These were partially offset by a decline in sales to biopharma production customers driven by challenging prior year comparisons and the timing of customer production campaigns offset by stronger sales of single use offerings. Advanced Technologies and Applied Materials experienced mid single digit growth driven by sales of 3rd party materials and consumables. Sales of electronic materials were flat year over year.

EMEA had a decline in the management EBITDA margin rate from 24% in 2018 to 20% in 2019. We had modest volume leverage offset by a slightly dilutive mix of product sales and investments in customer facing sales and in marketing functions and new supply chain facilities to support future growth. Turning to Slide 10, I want to share some more detail on cash performance for the quarter. For grounding, the green bars on the left show free cash flow which grew from $99,000,000 in the Q3 of 2018 to $185,000,000 in the Q3 of 2019. Net working capital contributed approximately $80,000,000 of this $86,000,000 improvement as you can see in the table on the right.

We are clearly getting some traction from the leadership attention this area is receiving. However, we still have an opportunity for significant further improvement. You will also note that the improvement in free cash flows from lower interest costs driven by our deleveraging was largely offset by higher payments for income taxes as our net operating loss deductions begin to expire. Excluding cash interest, which is shown in the blue bars, the unlevered free cash flow grew from $139,000,000 in 2018 to $206,000,000 in 2019. This cash generation enabled approximately 157,000,000 dollars of cash deleveraging in the quarter.

Speaking of deleveraging, Slide 11 gives a quick update on leverage at the end of the quarter. We started the year at 7 times and reduced it to 5 times by the end of June and further reduced it in the Q3 to 4.8 times. We expect our leverage ratio to approximate 4.5 times by year end and continue targeting a long term leverage ratio in the range of 2x to 4x. Looking ahead, there are some opportunities with our debt structure to further reduce the interest burden. In particular, our $2,000,000,000 in senior unsecured debt with a 9% coupon and our $1,500,000,000 in senior secured debt with a 6% coupon offer attractive opportunities for refinancing in the second half of twenty twenty.

We will share more detail as we get closer to that date. Our full year revenue and earnings guidance is on Slide 12. We are adjusting our full year outlook to reflect the 3rd quarter performance and foreign currency differences between our original guidance and the current environment. We now expect full year revenues to be in the range of 6.02 to 6.08000000000 with organic growth of 5% to 6% and adjusted EBITDA in the range of 1.025 dollars to $1,035,000,000 or an increase of 8.4% to 9.4%. At the midpoint, the new guidance reflects a 1% reduction in revenues and a reduction in adjusted EBITDA of approximately 2%.

Our guidance for adjusted earnings in the range of $0.55 to $0.58 per share or an increase of 52% to 60% remains unchanged. With the updated guidance, we expect a very strong Q4. With inferred sales growth of 5% to 6%, EBITDA margin expansion in excess of 100 basis points and adjusted EPS growth of 57% to 87%. I will now turn it over to the operator to begin the question and answer section.

Speaker 1

Thank you. And our first question comes from the line of Tycho Peterson from JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hey, thanks. Tom, I want to kind of go back to kind of how the quarter played out. If we go back to September, you had made some comments about Europe being soft and that ended up being fine and conversely it was the Americas that came in a little bit light against a tough comp that you kind of knew about. So can you just talk a little bit about where you're feeling better or worse geographically coming out of the quarter? Were you surprised at the reversal in Europe?

And are you able to talk at all about October trends? I know you said September was really strong.

Speaker 4

Yes. So happy to take that. Thank you, Tycho. Just starting with Q3, the when you look at the growth by month, it's kind of interesting. We were and I think I tried to say in the comments, we were kind of in that 3% -ish range in the month of July and we actually went negative in August and it was in part in Europe where we were seeing that.

And the month of August is tough always to kind of base a full year projection on given schedules and vacations, particularly in Europe. But we definitely were sounding a cautionary tone after seeing that. But I'd say that September was very strong for us across the board. I mean, the Americas was mid single digits, Europe was high single digits and Asia, as I said, was well into the double digits. So, very strong month of September.

In terms of October, we're not closed yet, but we are trending in line with what the guidance that we provided for the full year as well as what that implies for the Q4. So think off to a reasonably good start for the quarter. And it's going to be a pretty strong quarter relative to Q3.

Speaker 5

And then on Asia, I was a little surprised that EMEA didn't do a little bit better given that the comp slowed. I know you called out some timing issues on bioproduction. How much of this was just pacing, timing of manufacturing campaigns versus a broader slowdown? You're obviously off a small base there.

Speaker 3

Yes. Tycho, this is Michael. I'll take that question. I think a couple of things to keep in mind for EMEA. Firstly, just the relative magnitude of EMEA for us is roughly 5%.

And the way our portfolio has been built out there, it's skewed more towards the production environment than the other two regions that we participate in. So we do see a little bit more volatility in Asia owing to just the batch and campaign cycles that our customers bring us into. If you look at the Q3 specifically in bioproduction in 2018 that was in fact the high watermark for us in the region. There were a number of really, really significant campaigns that we participated in that just based on the timing this year, several of those have actually slid into the Q4. So nothing structural, still very well positioned there.

Growth continues to be solid. And as we look into the Q4 and our order book, particularly around bioproduction, you'll see, I think, a return to kind of levels of growth that you would expect in that region.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then lastly, just hopefully a quick one. But how much of the EBITDA being lowered is FX versus accelerated growth spending versus the lower organic growth? I know you flagged accelerated growth spending.

Speaker 4

Yes. I mean, if you look at it, if you look at it at the midpoint, Tycho, we were at a $10.50 midpoint in the prior guidance. So we're $10.30 now, so call it $20,000,000 Of that $20,000,000 $15,000,000 is really the Q3 results that we just took you through. And the remainder is mostly FX for Q4. Otherwise, we're pretty in line with what we've talked about before on Q4.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 1

And our next question comes from the line of Derik De Bruin from Bank of America. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 4

Good morning, Derek. Hey,

Speaker 6

I just wanted to follow-up on Tycho's question on EBITDA. I mean, this is the I realized that there's a lot of FX and mix associated with it. But the question I sort of want to focus on is it's been a little bit more volatile than even we had thought, given our experiences with the QFR, and certainly relative to where the IPO model was. I'm just curious, what can you do to sort of help smooth out the EBITDA expansion? Is there anything you can do?

And if it also goes into question, as you look to 2020, are you still comfortable with at least 100 basis points due to

Speaker 7

the top margin expansion next year given the current trends?

Speaker 4

Yes. Thanks, Derek. I was having a little bit of difficulty hearing your the first part of your question. But if we if I talk about the trends going forward, and you can start with the Q4, if you look at our guidance for EBITDA, it does continue in line with the model that we've talked about. Just to remind you, during the 3 year integration period of Avantor and BWR, we have a high degree of confidence of being able to the margins in part because of conversion on organic growth, but also in part because of the synergies in that 100 basis points to 150 basis point range.

We did that for the first two quarters of this year. We'll do it for the Q4. 3rd quarter was for the reasons we've talked about a little bit of an aberration. As you head into 2020, that's the 3rd year of our 3 year integration. And while we haven't finished our planning yet for 2020, I would expect that we'll adjust the overall baseline to reflect 2019 actuals.

But the growth algorithms on organic growth as well as margin expansion, delevering and so forth still remain intact. Can you help me can you take me back to the first part of the question?

Speaker 6

No, that basically covers it. That's what you got what I asked the first part on it. I guess another question I just wanted to bring up was on you're seeing some good pricing gains and I'm just wondering how sustainable those are. I mean, you're seeing a little bit better price than even I would have thought you had. Can you talk about what you're doing to sort of maintain that?

Speaker 3

All right. I think, Derek, as you look at the impact of pricing relative to volume, I think the Q3 played out plus or minus what we've seen in previous quarters, which is to say that we strive to modestly offset the COGS inflation that we do see in kind of more transactional part of our portfolio. And then on more of our proprietary products, which tend to have more of a value based pricing approach to those, nothing really new to report there. So I think as we look at the contribution of pricing in the quarter, we call it out only to indicate that we continue to execute our model that we've had in place for quite some time here. I don't think anything unusual to note there, Derek.

Speaker 6

Great. And just one other quick one. If you look at if you back up the one time in proprietary products, what did that grow in the quarter?

Speaker 4

Yes. If you we were looking at the math on that this morning. But if you take the impact of the science and education piece out of it, we would have been strong mid single digits like 5% to 6% is what you would have seen, which certainly is a tad better than what we would have had on 3rd party. So, we think the algorithm of proprietary growth relative to 3rd party growth still remains intact. And that is a tenant of our baseline expansion.

Speaker 3

I think, Derek, it's important to point out. When we look at the proprietary materials part of our portfolio, in large part you're talking about our exposure to bioproduction where most of our solution is manufactured from our own technologies. And then our exposure into the healthcare space with our medical grade silicone platform is also an important part of that algorithm that Tom mentioned. And to Tom's point, those end markets for us continue to be very robust. We continue to see strong double digit growth in our bioproduction platform, led by more than 20% growth in our single use platform.

So I would say it's important to recognize that the proprietary materials part of our portfolio does influence margins to a large extent as we've laid out today. And the core part of that business continues to run at a very high level and save the one off here in the science education business we talked about another really strong quarter.

Speaker 5

Thanks for the clarity.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from the line of Jack Meehan from Barclays. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Thank you. Good morning.

Speaker 3

I actually

Speaker 8

wanted to follow-up on the last point. Just as we look at the Q4 guidance, it looks like around 5.5% organic. Are you expecting proprietary to bounce back? And Michael, can you just build off that point related to maybe some of the proprietary products across JT Baker and Newfield. Just could you maybe how did they perform in the quarter?

And how are you feeling about that going into year end?

Speaker 3

Right. I guess that's a good place to focus, Jack. When we look at the inferred Q4 performance, obviously, you see strong top line, our return to kind of the normal margin expansion in line with our long range targets. And then underneath all that, in order for that to happen, you're seeing a bounce back in proprietary materials, probably right to think about that in the high single digit growth levels for Q4. And that is a part of our business.

We talk a lot about the limited visibility we have overall to our order book. That proprietary materials part is a particularly in our bioproduction space an area that does have a little bit longer lead times associated with it. So as we sit here in the 1st week of November, we do have fairly good line of sight orders that we would have through the end of the year and are comfortable in kind of the guidance that we've put out for that aspect of the model. When I look into Q3 specifically around bioproduction, I referenced the strength of our J. P.

Baker brands in our bioproduction chemicals platform. The single use platform continues to grow well into the double digits and well beyond, I think, any kind of normalized market growth rate for this space, which I think speaks to our global presence and the success that we're having in growing that part of our business. But you mentioned the Nucell business. In Tom's remarks, he did reference a bit of a pullback in that part of our portfolio as it relates to our healthcare business. And that's another production oriented platform that from quarter to quarter can have a little bit of volatility to it just given the production cycles and inventory balancing that our customers would go through.

And in that particular platform, Q3 a year ago was the high watermark. I think we grew that platform 25% a year ago. So you see a bit of a more normalized environment in the Q3 this year. The comp loosens up a bit, and we see structurally a return to normal growth in that end market as well.

Speaker 8

Great. Thanks for all the color. And then in the slide deck, I really like the EBITDA bridge on slide 8. But the one thing I guess that stood out to me was that net productivity was only

Speaker 5

$500,000 in terms of

Speaker 8

the year over year contribution. So now you're at $247,000,000 of run rate synergies. You can annualize some of these as you go into the numbers. But how much as we exit 2019 and go into 2020, can you give us a sense for how much is left in terms of the potential to expand margins based off synergies?

Speaker 7

Right. So I think I'll provide a little bit

Speaker 3

of high level cover for your question there and then Tom will give you a specific walk on that net productivity element of the bridge. We're still very confident in delivering the $300,000,000 of synergies that we had outlined at the beginning of the integration of PWR. We're run rating nearly $250,000,000 at the end of the quarter here. And as we look forward into next year and the individual programs that are in line to get us to the 300, I would say we're very, very confident about that. One important point to note, that program is comprised of literally hundreds of individual projects, some of which are driving top line revenue, some that are driving reduction in COGS, some that are more SG and A driven.

So you're going to see that impact of that $300,000,000 scattered throughout the P and L. And as we look into the balance of this year and moving into next year, you'll continue to see a step up in the contribution from that program. Now what we're reflecting here in the bridge, and Tom will walk you through it, is just kind of the netting of on the COGS side of things or the fixed cost side of things, how that productivity plays out in the quarter.

Speaker 4

Yes. So Jack, just to get right to the productivity number that you saw in there, I mean, it does look a little measly in the walk, but it really is a reflection of some very strong performance on the value capture. I mean, there's this has the SG and A synergies and productivity that we delivered in the quarter, and it was approaching $10,000,000 is what I'd say. There's additional synergies and productivity that's embedded in the price volume line for the part of the synergy, the value capture and synergies that are in the operating piece of the business. But just from an SG and A perspective, in this net productivity, you've got $10,000,000 offset by some big investments.

We made investments in Asia, in particular, as we're continuing to invest in feet on the street and in laboratory capabilities. We've also got some additional investments elsewhere in the enterprise, just growth oriented R and D kind of investments. And you had a little bit of inflation in there as well from a year over year perspective. So I expect that bar to get bigger as we head into the Q4 and into 2020.

Speaker 3

Our

Speaker 1

next question comes from the line of Vijay Kumar from

Speaker 5

Evercore

Speaker 9

ISI. Maybe I'll start with this Q4 5% or 6%. Just given Q3 was a little bit light, maybe talk about some of the drivers here. I know the comp is easy for Q4, But ex the comp, anything that we should be aware of the confidence that you have in the 5% to 6% for Q4?

Speaker 3

Yes, Vijay. Thanks for the question. Good morning. I think when you it's important to kind of ground in Q3. I think you're looking at a quarter here that really did want to be 5% on its own, absent this one time issue with the science education customer that does repeat going into the quarter.

So you're looking at a normalized mid single digit growth as a launching point from Q3 going into Q4. The comp does pull back a couple of 100 basis points. But we've had a number of recent contract wins. We've got obviously visibility as I referenced earlier into the campaign schedules of many of our large bioproduction customers, especially in Asia, which will print into the quarter here. So as we look at kind of a deferred Q4 here in that 5% to 6% range, It also has the embedded or implied kind of normal year end budget flush that we would see in our consumables business.

And so I think we're comfortable with the trends that we've seen exiting September, early read on October would be supportive of the guidance that we have in line here and then round it out with a pretty robust order book for our bioproduction business.

Speaker 9

That's helpful. And then maybe one on free cash flow, Tom. I think the presentation had you guys delevering to sub-four turns end of fiscal 'twenty. You're at 4.8 right now. I mean basically with $550,000,000 of free cash guidance for the year, this is implying your free cash flows should grow north of 40% to pay down an incremental $1,000,000,000 of debt between now and end of fiscal 2020.

Is that does that math make sense, your free cash $550,000,000 for 2019 that should be catering at 40% or growing 40% for next year?

Speaker 4

You have to factor in the EBITDA growth that we'll get as well on the delevering. So, I haven't done the math on that, but it is a combination of the growth in the EBITDA as well as the continued servicing on the debt that we'll get.

Speaker 9

That's an impressive free cash flow growth number, guys. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from the line of Brandon Couillard from Jefferies. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hey, thanks. Good morning.

Speaker 3

Hey, good morning, Brandon.

Speaker 6

Mike, if you look at

Speaker 7

the industrial markets globally in the Q3, could you kind of unpack the various sub segments globally, particularly on the more cyclical, say, chemical and industrial side and what you're embedding for that market in 4Q?

Speaker 3

Right. So just maybe to provide a little bit of context here, roughly 25% of our revenue would have exposure into this industrial end market. But in a very fragmented way, we're going to serve lots of different applications, whether that be aerospace and defense, semiconductor space, food and beverage, oil and gas, with no end markets representing more than kind of low single digit percentage of our overall revenue. And as we have been signaling for most of the year, this part of our business has been relatively soft to negative and certainly haven't really seen a significant change in that trajectory in the Q3 and nor are we anticipating or relying on any significant pickup in that and of those end markets in the Q4. There are a couple of pockets of bright spot for us.

Our exposure to the aerospace and defense end market is rather unique in that we're specked in much the same way you would expect us to be specked into a biologic drug with a very specific specification on a long term platform that is growing and certainly grew in the 3rd quarter and will continue to grow going into the Q4. The semiconductor space is another important end market for us. And we've seen the business in Asia slide for most of the year, starting to moderate a bit in the Q3, I would say. And we feel like we've probably bottomed out in Asia in that end market and see the signs of a little bit of an uptick, nothing that will drive the results in a significant way, but certainly a glimmer of hope that things have likely bottomed out there. Europe, when you look at an impressive print there on the quarter of 4.5%, It is still 100 or 200 basis points below where we had been running earlier in the year.

And I would say, if there was one change I would point out, we did see kind of the industrial end markets in Europe start to slow down a bit in the Q3. I think when you look at 4.5% print, it obviously demonstrates the exposure we have to biopharma in Europe, but it also does reflect a little bit of a weakening environment in Europe across that industrial sector, particularly as it relates to capital expenditures. And if you recall, roughly 15% of our portfolio in the equipment and instrument part of what we offer is going to be subject to our customers' capital expenditure programs. And certainly saw a tightening of that in Europe. We were off in the quarter low single digits on that platform.

And see that kind of moderating here through the 4th quarter. So I would say continued weakness with maybe a couple areas of bright spot. And I would say Europe had a few more headwinds in the Q3 than what we had seen up to that point in the year.

Speaker 7

Thanks. Appreciate that color. And then, Tom, just in terms of the guidance, trimming EBITDA a little bit for the year, just curious if that holding EPS, just curious if there are any changes below the line in terms of net interest and other or tax for the year? Thanks.

Speaker 4

Not really. I mean, when we put together the original guide, we had some assumed levels of interest expense. We've done a little bit better on that as we progress through the year. I mean we had re pricing in the middle of the year that's helped a little bit. We've also the IPO was a little bit bigger than we had modeled.

So between those 2, we're getting some favorability on the interest line. Taxes will be pretty much in line with what we modeled out in that 30% range. As I talked about, as we look forward to tax, I mean, that's certainly an area of opportunity for us. And we're making good progress on some of the things we need to do to bring that rate down to the levels I've talked about before. But overall, it's not a significant change other than the factors I mentioned on the repricing and the IPO side.

Speaker 10

Super. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from the line of Doug Schenkel from Cowen. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Hey, good morning guys. Good morning, Doug.

Speaker 4

Maybe to start with

Speaker 11

a, I guess, sort of a high level question. As you noted in your prepared remarks and as we've covered a bunch of times already over the course of this call, you had some one timers and generally speaking trends. That said, it does seem like something surprised you in the quarter given that you cut full year guidance. I know that's basic, but I just want to make sure that's fair. And building off of that probably more importantly, even if something changed relative to your internal model for the second half of year, is it fair to say that your 5% to 8% long term revenue growth guidance is very much intact at this point?

Speaker 3

Yes. Let me take that question. I think your observations on some of the onetime nature of the results that we saw here were somewhat to be expected. Certainly, the tough comp was known. Certainly, kind of the shifting of revenue from Q3 to Q2 from this science education customer was known.

What was not known as on that part of the business was the relative level of inventory that they were carrying and the volume that didn't repeat in the quarter. So we knew that there was a pull forward of some of the volume, but there was some lack of transparency on just how much inventory that they were carrying and as a consequence volume would repeat in the quarter. The other dynamic that we didn't anticipate going into the quarter, and this is actually relatively normal for that end market. But in the healthcare space, relatively limited visibility into inventory through the supply chain, you do have relatively volatile production schedules. And coming off a quarter where we had 25% revenue a year ago, knowing at some point that there would be likely some inventory taken out of the value chain, the timing of which is very difficult to predict.

And unfortunately, it looked like more of it came out in Q3 than what we would have been anticipated. So those are probably the 2 things that I would point to that surprised us a bit on the quarter. Relative to kind of our longer term guide, absent those two factors, we had a great quarter. Our consumables business holding up in the mid single digit levels, our bioproduction business holding up in the low double digit range. This model that's really built to deliver over the long term on a sustainable basis mid single digit growth with the embedded power on various quarters as we've demonstrated to go even into the high single digit range is very much intact.

And you see that in the optimism we have here around our 4th quarter.

Speaker 11

Okay. That's all super helpful. And maybe if I could just slip in one quick follow-up. On tax rate, you came in well below expectations in the quarter. How much of this was a function of timing or something else?

And I guess as we look ahead, do you still expect 2020 adjusted tax rate to be in the 26% to 27% range? Or are you seeing something as we sit here today that could drive that even lower? Thank you.

Speaker 4

Yes. I think what you're talking about, Doug, is for everybody's references. Our guide for tax for the year is roughly 30%. We're still sticking to that. The quarter was a little bit lighter in terms of the rate and it came in around 27%.

That's about $2,500,000 of net income, less than a penny. So not terribly material and there's really nothing to point to structurally or from a longer term perspective. But I would say that and repeat what I said earlier that we are on track relative to the things that we need to do to get that the tax rate lined up for 2020, particularly around the way we're financing our international operations, doing that in a much more tax efficient manner.

Speaker 11

Okay. That's great. Super helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from the line of Dan Brennan from UBS. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you. Thanks for taking the questions. I joined a little late. I had a first question was just on EMEA.

I know it's a smaller portion of your business, but I know it's an important growth opportunity for you and the growth this quarter was below what we were expecting. So could you just kind of give us some sense of kind of what the trend was in the quarter and also as we look what's the right kind of growth rate to expect for that geography for you?

Speaker 11

And then I had a follow-up. Yes, we did cover that

Speaker 3

question early in the call here, but just to reiterate the key points from the answer we gave there. Obviously, it's a relatively small or modest revenue base for us in Asia, roughly 5% of our overall revenues. And unlike the other two regions that we serve, it's disproportionately oriented towards our production customers. And then naturally the exposure to their campaign cycles. So we've had a number of really important wins in the region this year.

It just so happens that last year was probably the high watermark for our bioproduction business in the region a year ago, so very difficult comps and a number of those campaigns actually slid into the Q4 this year. So nothing particularly structural. The business continued to perform well. It was certainly muted by downsizing our electronic materials platform that continues to be negative. But long term, we would expect that part of our business to grow at least in the low double digit range for the foreseeable future.

Speaker 10

And then Michael, thank you for that. And then just within biopharma, there's been kind of varying degrees of kind of growth this quarter from your peers across the different sub segments within biopharma. But just I know the growth this quarter was still positive, a little bit lower than what it had been. Just can you kind of remind us of kind of your split within biopharma between the bioproduction, which is obviously robust in other areas and how we think about the trajectory of biopharma in Q4 and beyond? Thank you.

Speaker 3

So biopharma for us is roughly 50% of our revenue. So obviously, it's a critical end market for us and we're excited about the momentum that we have in the business. We highlighted a number of customer wins that we had in the quarter, which would be a follow on from a number of starting in the research and discovery phase all the way through to the production and starting in the research and discovery phase all the way through to the production environment. As a rule of thumb, you probably wouldn't be too far off to assume roughly 2 thirds of that revenue is going to fall into the laboratory and research and discovery phase and somewhere in the range of a third of the revenue falling into the production environment. Clearly, the growth in the production piece of that is going to be a bit more robust.

I think if you look at and triangulate most of the market data points about production growing high single digits, low double digits, Just given our portfolio, our exposure globally, we would expect to do at least in line with that, if not slightly better than that.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from the line of Erin Wright from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Speaker 12

Great, thanks. Can you speak to some of the nature of those contract wins in the quarter? I guess what drove those? Was it the integrated offering that contributed to the wins across the euros as well as in biopharma and the extensions there? If you could speak a little bit more to those, that would be great.

Speaker 4

Yes. No, we're

Speaker 3

always excited to speak about some of the success that we're having. We won't get into any specific customer detail for obvious reasons here. But when I look at the success that we've had in defending our accounts as well as winning new accounts across biopharma and across education especially, it's been a really successful year. And when I speak to our customers on the back end of these discussions, 2 or 3 things seem to emanate with them. One, the power of our integrated offering is certainly unique for them.

And as these two platforms have come together, we're able to offer them a much more significant solution today than we ever have before. And you see that in the kind of share of wallet that we're able to gain with some of these accounts. Our global exposure is important. We referenced in our remarks, an example of a customer that we had historically only served in Europe. But as we have built out our capabilities, especially in Asia, but also building our presence in the Americas, they stepped up and awarded that business to us globally.

The CRO space continues to be an important driver of growth for us. We had a number of important contract wins in the quarter in that space. And then playing on a theme that we've been running now for multiple quarters, we continue to build momentum in our higher education portion of our business in the Americas. We had and we have, as we discussed in other forums, an exclusive relationship with a consortium organization that a lot of the universities in this part of the world would buy across. And given that position as well as just the focused efforts that we've been driving, we've seen a number of important contract wins in the higher education space this year.

Speaker 12

Okay, great. Thanks. And then digging a little bit deeper into the VWR synergies, I guess, can you give us a geographic update on sort of the productivity and other initiatives there, specifically in Asia. I know that was an area that you highlighted with the IPO as far as the opportunity with BWR synergies as well. Is that all still intact in terms of prospects there?

Speaker 3

Yes, it is. When we look at synergies, kind of 2 thirds cost, roughly 1 third commercial synergies. A good bit of those commercial synergies actually play out in Asia as you're describing as we integrate the BWR portfolio across in that case what happens have been the legacy of Onto infrastructure. And we continue to invest and you see that in some of our SG and A numbers and other full operating expenses, whether that be in sales reps or marketing resources or we're commercializing a new application center that will open here in a few weeks in Shanghai. So we'll continue to build out a supply chain to service that and then to be able to capture those synergies.

But they definitely, as we see out over the long term, a region that will be growing double digits in part due to these synergies.

Speaker 1

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Michael Stubblefield for closing remarks.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thank you everyone for participating in our call today. We certainly appreciate your support of Avantor. As we've talked here, we had a bit of noise in the quarter from some prior year one offs and mix and foreign currency headwinds. But we're pleased with the underlying growth that we did generate, the strong cash generation and excited about the optionality that the deleveraging trend that we have will provide for our business going forward.

Biopharma, certainly our most important end market, continues to grow strong. And overall, we exited September with great momentum that has carried forward into the 4th quarter. As we talked here on the call today, we did see significant customer wins in the quarter and we're strengthening our overall value proposition by continuing to make strategic investments to better serve our customers. Certainly, our operating performance benefited from continued progress and the operational efficiencies and synergies from our integration program with EWR. And overall, we remain on track to deliver the margin expansion and cash flow that's in line with our long term objectives.

As we look at this platform, our business is certainly well positioned to further enable the innovation and breakthroughs that help our life science customers dramatically improve patient outcomes. Again, appreciate you joining our call today. We look forward to our next update after the New Year and to seeing some of you in person in the coming weeks. Have a great day everyone. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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