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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Oct 27, 2022

Operator

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to AXT's third quarter 2022 financial conference call. Leading the call today is Dr. Morris Young, Chief Executive Officer, and Gary Fischer, Chief Financial Officer. My name is Andrea and I will be your coordinator today. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question answer session. To ask a question during the session, you need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message adviaing your hand is raised. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Leslie Green, Investor Relations for AXT. Please go.

Leslie Green
Director of Investor Relations, AXT

Thank you, Andrea, and good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this conference call, including comments made in response to your questions, we will provide projections or make other forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, the future financial performance of the company, market conditions and trends, including expected growth in the markets we serve, emerging applications using chips or devices fabricated on our substrates, our product mix, our ability to increase orders in succeeding quarters, to control costs and expenses, to improve manufacturing yields and efficiencies, to utilize our manufacturing capacity, the growing environmental, health and safety, and chemical industry regulations in China, as well as global economic and political conditions, including trade tariffs and restrictions.

We wish to caution you that such statements deal with future events, are based on management's current expectations, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially. These uncertainties and risks include, but are not limited to, overall conditions in the market in which the company competes, global financial conditions and uncertainties, COVID-19 or outbreaks of other contagious disease, potential tariffs and trade restrictions, increased environmental regulations in China, market acceptance and demand for the company's products, the financial performance of our partially owned supply chain companies, and the impact of delays by our customers on the timing of sales and their products. In addition to the factors that may be discussed in this call, we refer you to the company's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

These are available online by link from our website and contain additional information on risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. This conference call will be available on our website at axt.com through October 27, 2023. Also, before we begin, I want to note that shortly following the close of market today, we issued a press release reporting financial results for the third quarter of 2022. This information is available on the investor relations portion of our website at axt.com. I would now like to turn the call over to Gary Fischer for a review of our third quarter results. Gary?

Gary L. Fisher
VP and CFO, AXT

Thank you, Leslie, and good afternoon to everyone. Revenue for the third quarter of 2022 was $35.2 million. That's down from $39.5 million in the second quarter of 2022, and it's up from $34.6 million in the third quarter of 2021 from last year. To break down our Q3 2022 revenue for you by product category, indium phosphide came in at $17.7 million. Gallium arsenide was $8.1 million, down from Q2 by about $4 million and reflects the overall slowdown in the marketplace. Germanium substrates were $1.1 million. Our germanium substrate revenue was down by about $2.7 million from Q2. Part of this is the general slowdown we observed, and part is due to the payment issue we described last quarter. We expect to resolve that situation in the near future.

As of today, we are not shipping to the customers in question, so. Finally, revenue from the two consolidated raw material joint venture companies in Q3 was $8.3 million. In the third quarter of 2022, revenue from Asia Pacific was 67%, Europe 14%, North America 19%. The top five customers generated approximately 41% of total revenue and one customer was over the 10% level. non-GAAP gross margin in the third quarter was 42.2% compared with 39.4% in Q2 of 2022, and 33.8% in Q3 of 2021. For those who prefer to track results on a GAAP basis, gross margin in the third quarter was 42.0% compared with 39.1% in Q2 and 33.3% in Q3 of last year.

As you can see, we continue to execute well on gross margin. Despite lower volumes in Q3, our favorable product mix, improved yields, and new indium phosphide recycling program all contributed to strong results. Total non-GAAP operating expense in Q3 was $9.2 million. This compares with $9.1 million in Q2 and with $7.7 million in Q3 of 2021. On a GAAP basis, total operating expense in Q3 of 2022 was $10.2 million, compared with $10.1 million last quarter. For comparison, total GAAP operating expense was $9.1 million in Q3 of 2021. Non-GAAP operating profit for the third quarter of 2022 was $5.6 million, compared with non-GAAP operating profit in Q2 of 2022 of $6.4 million and $4.0 million in Q3 of 2021.

For reference, GAAP operating profit for the third quarter of 2022 was $4.6 million, compared with an operating profit of $5.3 million in Q2 of 2022, and an operating profit of $2.4 million in Q3 of 2021. Non-operating other income and expense for the third quarter of 2022 was a net gain of $2.7 million. This includes a gain of $2.0 million from the unconsolidated raw material companies. The full breakdown is in our press release. For Q3 of 2022, we had a non-GAAP net income of $6.8 million, or $0.16 per share, compared with $6.7 million or $0.16 per share in the second quarter of 2022. Non-GAAP net income in Q3 of 2021 was $5.4 million or $0.13 per share.

On a GAAP basis, net income in Q3 was $5.8 million or $0.13 per share. By comparison, net income was $5.5 million or $0.13 per share in the second quarter of 2022, and $3.8 million or $0.09 per share in Q3 of 2021. The weighted average diluted shares outstanding in Q3 was 43.0 million. Cash, cash equivalents and investments were $48.2 million as of September 30. By comparison, at June 30, it was $57.2 million. Depreciation and amortization in the third quarter was $2.1 million, and capital investments were $4.7 million. Most of this is facilities related. Stock comp was $1.0 million. Net inventory at September 30 was $88.5 million.

50% of the inventory is raw materials, 46% is WIP, and finished goods makes up 4%. This concludes the discussion of our quarterly financial results. Turning to our plan to list our subsidiary, Tongmei, in China on the STAR Market in Shanghai, let me just give you a brief update. As previously reported, our IPO application was approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange in July, and was then submitted to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, often we refer to that as the CSRC, in August for the next step in the review process. We have had feedback from the CSRC in the form of questions, and our advisors believe the questions were normal and customary. We hope to get CSRC approval soon, and Tongmei still hopes to accomplish the offering as early as Q4 2022.

This has been a long process, but we remain very enthusiastic and optimistic. We have posted a brief summary of the plan and the process on our website. Before I turn the call over to Morris, I want to take a moment to address the topic of export control restrictions with China, since some of you have asked. We have extensively studied the new restrictions and guidance, including consultation with our legal experts. As such, we and our attorneys have concluded that the new restrictions are not applicable to our products, equipment or manufacturing process. We do not expect to experience disruption as a result. Well, with that, let me turn the call over to Dr. Morris Young for a review of our business in markets.

Morris has been in China and is there right now, so he got up very early in the morning and it still is early in the morning there. Morris, go ahead.

Morris Young
CEO, AXT

Thank you, Gary. Well, good afternoon, everybody. Though a softening of the microenvironment reset our growth trajectory, the trends that have driven our revenue, customer, application expansion remain very much intact. Despite the setback, our Q3 results demonstrate several key things. First, indium phosphide is expanding and becoming an increasingly strategic material across the landscape of technology. Second, AXT has continued to make meaningful, sustainable progress in driving our gross margin performance. And third, we are successfully supporting the business, technical and quality requirements of some of the most discerning tier one companies in the world. These three factors underscores our firm confidence that our business has reached a turning point. The tide of innovation that is driving the expansion of applications for all materials we created is lifting our baseline opportunity.

Even in the softer demand environment, we moving forward, AXT is solidly positioned as a leader. Our product quality and technical capability have created a standard of excellence that is increasingly difficult for our competitor to match, as is evidenced by our market share gain in indium phosphide. Our Q3 indium phosphide revenue grew 12% over Q2 to set a new high for quarterly revenue. This is also a 48% increase over Q3 of 2021. Driving our growth was the ramp of two consumer applications that contributed meaningfully to our results and in line with our expectations coming into the quarter. As we mentioned previously, the first is a proximity sensor for audio devices, and the second is an under glass sensor for high-end handsets. We're shipping into both applications in production quality.

The strong performance in consumer was offset by a weakness in power and telecommunication applications, particularly in China. The data center market was also moderately weaker than we expected going into the quarter. The majority of the revenue shortfall in Q3 came from gallium arsenide. Industrial lasers, LEDs for automotive and wireless handset applications were all down in a meaningful way. Much of this relates to China, where customer conservatism towards future demand, coupled with COVID and weather-related shutdown within the supply chain resulting in a steep drop in orders. We're confident this is not a loss in market share as we are not seeing customer canceling orders. More commonly, they are delaying or placing orders on hold. In other cases, this is to get a better picture into future demand.

In the other cases, it may be the result of shortage within the supply chain. We see this issue persisting through Q4, but because of the rapid decline in the second half of 2022, an improvement in the demand environment or the supply environment could result in a relatively quick recovery in FY 2023. This is also important to know that we continue to see a meaningful amount of development work happening for new applications in both indium phosphide and gallium arsenide. Customers are highly focused on new innovation. We believe that this will contribute to some exciting new use case for our substrate in the coming fiscal year, including consumer and healthcare monitoring. A bit further out, microLED applications are growing increasingly more promising. We would not be surprised to see noticeable revenue in FY 2024.

In terms of our own innovation, I'm pleased with the progress we are making in both eight-inch gallium arsenide and six-inch indium phosphide material. Our R&D investment are allowing us to ensure that we're ready to meet the market when application for this larger diameter move closer to production. Finally, revenue from our two consolidated joint ventures were about $8.3 million in Q3. We expect the softer demand environment to bring sales down some in Q4, mostly from JinMei. That is as a result of raw material prices coming down and ongoing customer conservatism. BoYu, who makes PBN crucibles, is likely remaining steady. In closing, despite the setback of a weaker demand environment, we have made enormous progress in our business and we are well positioned to weather the near term softness.

Today, we are the world leader in indium phosphide, and we are the company that tier one customers come to when they are bringing new innovation to market. We continue to raise the bar, our technical capability, and our quality, creating clear differentiation with our competitors. Further, we have worked hard to improve our efficiency and as a result, we are delivering solid profitability. Over the coming quarters, the environment will do what it will. Though we will diligently manage our business through it, our eyes are on the horizon because the massive trends that will continue to transform the landscape of technology are not going away. AXT will be the leading supplier of many of these materials. I will now turn the call back to Gary for our first quarter guidance. Gary?

Gary L. Fisher
VP and CFO, AXT

Thank you, Morris. That said, we expect Q4 revenue to be between $26 million and $29 million, which reflects our view that the inventory corrections will continue during the quarter. As such, we expect our non-GAAP net profit will be in the range of $0.03-$0.05, and GAAP net profit will be in the range of $0.01-$0.03. Share count will be approximately 43.0 million shares. Okay, this concludes our prepared comments. Morris and I will be glad to answer your questions now. Andrea, please, go to Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will conduct the question and answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Charles Shi with Needham & Company. Please go ahead.

Charles Shi
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Needham & Company

Good morning, Morris. Good afternoon, Gary, Leslie. Maybe first question, wanna ask you, how to reconcile what we heard from your number one customer, the IQE in Taiwan. That particular company recently said they are quite bullish about 5G and the fiber rollout in China next year, and they think 2023 will be a growth year for them. What is your thought on your own business going into 2023? I know fourth quarter 2022 seems like, that the correction will continue, but into 2023, are you seeing a similar trend as your number one customer and especially on the telecom, and the datacom side? Thank you.

Morris Young
CEO, AXT

Let me take this first, Gary. Yes, Charles. I think indeed we think indium phosphide will continue to grow. Although I think Q4 is taking a slight dip, I think. I think the trend of indium phosphide growth is gonna continue. I think not only telecom, datacom is gonna be growing in Q 2023, but also the consumer product I think is gonna not only continue to grow, hopefully we're gonna pick up one or two more new consumer product applications, which, as you know, could be quite accelerating growth because it's a new product.

Gary L. Fisher
VP and CFO, AXT

Yeah.

Morris Young
CEO, AXT

Um-

Gary L. Fisher
VP and CFO, AXT

That particular company is a long-term customer of ours and, you know, we feel very strong with them, and we expect to continue to serve their needs.

Charles Shi
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Needham & Company

Got it. Maybe the second question to the consumer business. What's the total revenue opportunity you're seeing for the current one you already have, the second consumer application? What does the end customer tell you, what's the total size of the revenue opportunity through this smartphone cycle? Do you see any changes to the forecast that they provided to you over the recent weeks or months? Because I hear you said that the trend of indium phosphide growth will continue.

Kind of makes me wonder, you did guide down your Q4 by quite a lot, and I wonder whether that second consumer application has a little bit changed in terms of how fast the ramp can be in Q4.

Morris Young
CEO, AXT

Yeah, I don't think there's a slowdown in the demand for the second consumer product in Q4. I believe the slight downtick on indium phosphide demand are mainly from our other China customers, which, unfortunately, we don't know exactly what they are doing. It could be datacom, it could be the PON market, et cetera. Definitely this particular customer is not slowing down. In fact, if I may add, I think, you know, they are only using on the high end of the phone market in their first launch this year. Hopefully, later on, they're going to use it in the whole spectrum of product they're offering. We do expect, perhaps, you know, the demand for this product on the second product is gonna go up next year.

Charles Shi
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Needham & Company

Maybe just to clarify, this is gonna be my last question. To clarify, you are optimistic about two more consumer applications. Does the proliferation of the indium phosphide-based sensor. Well, that's their low-end product, but or in the market, it's probably considered mid to high end. Is that accounted as a third application, or you're talking something completely different when you talk about the two more consumer applications there?

Morris Young
CEO, AXT

No, that's not considered a new win. We think that's probably gonna increase the demand. We haven't talked to the customer yet in terms of how much they want us to prepare, because this is still early for next year demand. I'm talking about possibly we can pick up one or two more new consumer product applications. As you know, that we have at least two product is sort of in the queue, but we're not sure, especially with the world economy shaping up like this, where are they gonna introduce this new product.

Charles Shi
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Needham & Company

Thank you very much.

Morris Young
CEO, AXT

Thanks, Charles.

Gary L. Fisher
VP and CFO, AXT

Thanks, Charles. Next question.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Richard Shannon with Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Please go ahead.

Richard Shannon
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Well, thanks, Morris and Gary, for taking my questions. Let me ask just very specifically on the fourth quarter guidance here. You obviously talked about indium phosphide down a bit. The overall number here at the midpoint is down a little bit more than 20%. Can you delineate, you know, the other categories, how they're doing relative to the kind of that midpoint? I'm assuming gallium arsenide and maybe raw materials are down more than average. Maybe Gary, if you could delineate that a little more closely, that'd be great, please.

Gary L. Fisher
VP and CFO, AXT

Yeah. Well, we're trying to be conservative, first of all. Secondly, we're uncertain about, you know, when the market's gonna bounce back. I don't think anyone, you know, on this call or in the tech business thinks it's gonna bounce back in Q4. Therefore, we've forecasted all of the products to be down. A big and the big drop in raw materials. You know, raw materials have been running about $8 million, and that alone will be down at least 25%. It's just reflective of the overall slowdown in the markets. You know, as I said to our team, it's a good thing we're grown-ups because, you know, it is what it is. We can't change the whole marketplace.

It shifted on us. I wouldn't say overnight, but it was a very dramatic and rapid shift during the summer. We don't know when it will bounce back. Hopefully, it'll be in Q1, but we'll have to get closer to Q1 before we'll know for sure.

Morris Young
CEO, AXT

Yeah. Gary, I want to add to the point is that I don't think we are losing market share. That's very important to underline. Our underlying strengths of our AXT future remain solid. You know, this new factory adding the capacity, uncertain and, you know, responsiveness. As you can see that indium phosphide for the second new consumer product, we ramped up our production very successfully. We didn't lose a stride, and I think they are really making good marks to, you know, our most demanding customers. We think we're stronger and better than any time in our industry. You know, semiconductor, unfortunately, is cyclical. You know, when people are worried about the, you know, supply, they buy a lot.

When they say scares of recession coming through, then everybody wants to use their inventory. I mean, the same thing for us. You see, we built some inventory. It's gonna take us a quarter or two to bring it down. We're not gonna buy from our customers. That's the nature of the business, I would say.

Richard Shannon
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

That's very fair. Thanks for that, commentary. My second question is on gross margins. I wanna talk mostly about both the third quarter and then kind of the view into the fourth quarter. You've talked in the past about volume being a fairly important indicator of gross margins, and you have obviously had your best gross margins ever. Clearly indium phosphide mix is helping a lot. Maybe you could delineate any other drivers here in the third quarter that helped you, and are there any things that can help you or are there, such as recycling or yield, things that you've improved on. Do those have more legs to grow on?

As we look forward here, particularly with the much lower volumes, how do we think about gross margins here? Can we look back at quarters with a similar revenue and see it in that range, or Gary, can you help us think about where to think about gross margins play out in the fourth quarter?

Gary L. Fisher
VP and CFO, AXT

Sure. Yeah. Well, you know, for our business model, the way the company operates, it's not usually like one single thing that makes the gross margins swing up or down. I refer to it as several small dials instead of one big dial. Clearly product mix is a key factor, and that's one of the first things that comes to mind when we say, why is gross margin improving. Another is the new indium phosphide recycling program. Whereas we described before, we developed last year a way to reclaim certain scraps that are a result of this production process. That was in, I would call beta test in Q4 of last year and early production level in Q1 of this year.

I would say general production level in Q2 and again in Q3. In fact, in Q3 it contributed a little bit more than it did in Q2. That's good for gross margin. It's also good for ESG kinds of concepts that we're learning how to recycle some of this stuff. A third factor is that we've generally had our yields improve. You know, in general, I think we're seeing more manufacturing efficiencies. You know, Morris talked about our strengths and the team is really a good team. You know, I've used the phrase with some of you before that I think we've been going through a settling in process at the new sites.

I think we're improving in that. It's more stable and that's helping the efficiencies and the yields. To be straight about it, for Q3, we had a quarter where a lot of the numbers seem to be pointing north, that is in a positive direction. That doesn't happen very often, and sometimes when it could be pointing south, but in this case, you know, every number on the board was helpful. That'll enable us, you know, on a GAAP basis to be at 42%. Richard, secondly, you know, what do I see going forward?

I think we have some more ground to gain on both on mix and on yields and on manufacturing efficiencies, all the things I just described. We have some other recycling ideas that we're not ready to share them yet either with you guys or with our competitors. We have some other things that we can do to keep the gross margin relatively high. Yes, it's not gonna be in the 40% for Q4 because the volume's gonna be lower. I think somewhere in the 37%-38% range is achievable. You know, I haven't taken a look yet at gross margin for next year.

I can say, and I say this with confidence, that we have some good ideas that are being implemented now, and it will help us next year. Next question, Richard.

Richard Shannon
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

For me. You reported a 10% customer. Is this a new customer or one you've had as a 10% in the past?

Gary L. Fisher
VP and CFO, AXT

It's one that we've had before. We expect that they could be 10%, you know, going forward. They'll continue to be strong. They are servicing the consumer application that we've touched on so.

Richard Shannon
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Okay. I figured that was the case. Okay. That's all for me. I'll jump on the line. Thanks.

Gary L. Fisher
VP and CFO, AXT

All right. Thanks, Richard. Next question.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone. Please stand by for the next question. Our next question comes from Hamed Khorsand from BWS Financial. Please go ahead.

Hamed Khorsand
Analyst, BWS Financial

Hi. My first question was, how are you adjusting the business, given, you know, the decline in revenue, but your inventory has been increasing quite a bit now? How are you going to adjust for that, and to generate some free cash flow?

Gary L. Fisher
VP and CFO, AXT

Well, first of all, let me assure you that we're very aware of what's happened to the inventory. You know, it evolved because we were running really hard to keep up with demand, and we're deliberately building inventory. Things shifted pretty dramatically. We're very aware of it. Let me point out again that in our inventory right now, 50% of it is raw materials, and 46% is WIP. Only 4% is finished goods. I'm not worried about having to write down the inventory or anything like that. The way we're gonna have to bring it down, which we will, is several things.

Number 1, I've already been communicating with my teammates in China, and forming sort of a SWAT team, if you will, to monitor inventory closely. Of course, we'll stop purchasing as much because we have too much now. I think we can bring it down over the next couple of quarters, Hamed. It will help on cash. Yes. It's, you know, unfortunately, I think we're mirroring what we've seen in our own customers. You know, they're trying to manage their inventories also, so they stop buying as much. We're actually in the same position. We're definitely on it. We've been talking about it. You know, it's not my first rodeo.

I've been in these situations before and, you know, there's a saying that I use, which if you wanna change something, measure it. I'm looking at different ways to measure different things in the inventory and communicate that to the team, and get everybody's attention. I feel it's an achievable goal to bring it back down.

Hamed Khorsand
Analyst, BWS Financial

Okay. I mean, what I'm trying to get to is also how are you adjusting to this environment? Because in Q2, you know, you were doing something in the realm of 40 or 50% more in sales revenue per month than what you're guiding to now. So that's quite a bit of an adjustment you would have to make. Are you know, putting people on, you know, leave, or how are you just doing the manufacturing there?

Gary L. Fisher
VP and CFO, AXT

We're not putting people on leave. We're not hiring anybody either. You know, I think it would be detrimental to our midterm future if we start, you know, jettisoning employees. You know, we expect the market's gonna come back, and when it does, we're gonna be ready. In the meantime, we'll try and trim expenses. We'll try and improve on efficiencies. You know, we have a lot of dry powder of things that we can do to manage the business. You know, we've considered should we do layoffs, but at this point, no, we're not going to.

Morris Young
CEO, AXT

Yeah. One of the things we obviously are doing is, as you know, during the very busy time, we were asking people to take a lot of overtime and forfeit their vacations, et cetera. Now we're in a slower time. We are on the slower segments such as gallium arsenide and germanium. We either shift part of them to work in indium phosphide because that's still quite busy. We're still building, you know, future capacity for the expected demand increase next year. Also we do encourage people to take their vacation and annual leave time as much as possible, so ready for the next, you know, run up to the high demand later.

Hamed Khorsand
Analyst, BWS Financial

My last question is, how would you describe the clarity that you have in the business right now?

Morris Young
CEO, AXT

Um-

Gary L. Fisher
VP and CFO, AXT

You mean about the marketplace in the future?

Morris Young
CEO, AXT

Yeah. I think we are as clear as we can. I mean, although market is down, but as we said, I don't think we're losing market share. Customers are all there. In certain segments, the demand is still strong, but you know, we're covering a lot of business. For instance, you know, everybody I think nobody's happy to see that our guided revenue going forward is gonna down so much. On the other hand, you know, part of it could very well be the gallium price erosion. I mean, gallium price came down almost 20% and is still going down, maybe another 10%. You know, one of our our joint venture, JinMei, who sells gallium, they buy and sell gallium.

First of all, if the gallium price is low, then their revenue comes down. That really has nothing to do with, you know, revenue coming down so much because we are clear when our revenue was up, we are clear to report to everybody, hey, you know, part of the increase in revenue is really because raw material price is going up, so this is coming down on the other side. It doesn't hurt us because we, in JinMei's business, we're refining it to high purity. It doesn't really hurt our business. Add on to it is when price go down, people don't want to buy because they don't want to step into, you know, it's going down further.

Why do I buy it a month later? Maybe this is working, you know, to bring down inflation, so to speak. As far as the rest of the factory, I think we are holding our heads up quite a bit, and we're busy, very busy preparing for the IPO process. You know, we still have a lot of R&D work. They're working very hard on doing eight-inch gallium arsenide and six-inch indium phosphide development. I think the team spirit is high. That I can say.

Gary L. Fisher
VP and CFO, AXT

I agree.

Hamed Khorsand
Analyst, BWS Financial

Okay. Thank you.

Gary L. Fisher
VP and CFO, AXT

Thanks, Hamed.

Operator

Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from Richard Shannon with Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Please go ahead.

Richard Shannon
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Okay, guys. Thanks for getting me back in the queue here. I guess two questions. First of all, Morris, you talked about microLED, and you could imagine a scenario where it picks up in calendar 2024. Can you give us more detail on what you're hearing and what you're engaged with in customers? My understanding is if that picks up nicely or you green light something there, you'd probably have to have some more capacity. How far in advance do you need to know about this before you get your capacity in place for such a build in that year?

Morris Young
CEO, AXT

Yeah, I think we're increasingly more optimistic because it's shaping up nicely. I think the customer are making their commitment. Yes, indeed, we are seeing the demand curve really start to pick up in 2024, and we're making all the preparation for it. The ramp in volume demand is gradual. I think it's gonna start by several hundred wafer per month in next year. We are already delivering some samples to our customers already, and they are evaluating the performance of it. We expect between the two of us, I mean, our customer and us, to tweak the specification that they want.

Indeed, it would take us some time to build a new factory for the capacity to deliver that expected increasing demand. We are working on it, and we expect, you know, to be able to deliver in the neighborhood of, let's see, something like 5,000 wafers a month towards the middle of next year. We expect it to further increase it to close to 10,000 or 12,000 wafers a month in early 2024.

Richard Shannon
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Okay, perfect. Just a quick follow-up on that topic, Morris. When do you expect your eight-inch wafers to intersect with that opportunity?

Morris Young
CEO, AXT

What do you mean? You, I mean, we were building the capacity for that eight-inch. Yes. The numbers.

Richard Shannon
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Are specific for eight-inch.

Morris Young
CEO, AXT

Are eight-inch wafers.

Richard Shannon
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Got it. Okay.

Morris Young
CEO, AXT

Those are 8-inch wafers.

Richard Shannon
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Okay, perfect. Thank you. My second and last question here is on indium phosphide. I think you've talked about tight capacity here, and while the revenues seem to be going down a little bit in fourth quarter, you've got some positive comments about new applications or additional volume in current applications in consumer space. Where do you sit in terms of utilization of your capacity, and do you need to build more in the near term or next year?

Morris Young
CEO, AXT

This is still fairly tight. Maybe Q4 is gonna give us a little bit breather. We are still building capacity in anticipation for the volume ramp up next year. We could be overbuilding. I mean, I'm saying, I mean, a lot of this buildup in capacity is in our own initiatives because we have to anticipate what customer really wanted, and they usually don't give us. I mean, most of them give us at least three months advance notice. But some of them, for instance, one of the customers, they tell us they're doing pilot run, and they expect results back in, I think last time we talked to them, it's about in six months in the middle of next year.

Whether they're gonna come successfully in asking for more product or not, obviously, we're gonna keep very close tab with them and as time gets closer. For us to increase indium phosphide capacity is not as easy as gallium arsenide. It's more complicated, so it takes a little bit longer time. We need about six months to get all the things together. We are doing a little bit more in advance of the products coming in. Last year, as you know, these two products are consumer products. I think we did a very nice job in expanding our capacity, meeting all the demand from our most demanding customers. I pat myself on the back and say, "Good job, Morris." Hopefully we do the same thing for the next consumer product ramp.

You know, right now I cannot promise you. I mean, they are not coming in with an order yet. Next question.

Operator

I'm not showing any more questions right now, actually. I would like to turn the call back to Dr. Morris Young for closing remarks.

Morris Young
CEO, AXT

Okay. Thank you everybody for participating in our conference call. Let me see what other conferences we'll be attending. This quarter we'll be presenting at Craig-Hallum's Alpha Select Conference in New York in November on November seventeenth. We will be participating at the Needham Conference in New York City on January eleventh. We look forward to seeing many of you there. As always, please feel free to contact me, Gary Fischer or Leslie Green directly if you would like to set up a call. We look forward to speaking with you in the near future. Thanks, everyone.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect.

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