Boise Cascade Company (BCC)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2021

Nov 2, 2021

Operator

My name is Chris, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Boise Cascade's Third Quarter 2021 Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer period. If you would like to ask a question during that time, simply press star and then the number one on your telephone keypad. Questions will be taken in the order received. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press the pound key. Before we begin, I remind you that this call may contain forward-looking statements about the company's future business effects and anticipated financial performance. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, and the company undertakes no duty to update them.

Although these statements reflect management expectations today, they are subject to a number of business risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in this call. For a discussion of the factors that may cause actual results to differ from the results anticipated, please refer to Boise Cascade's recent filings with the SEC. It is now my pleasure to introduce you to Kelly Hibbs, Senior Vice President, CFO, and Treasurer of Boise Cascade. Mr. Hibbs, you may begin your conference.

Kelly Hibbs
SVP, CFO, and Treasurer, Boise Cascade Company

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. I would like to welcome you to Boise Cascade's Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Call and Business Update. Joining me on today's call are Nate Jorgensen, our CEO, Mike Brown, head of our Wood Products operations, and Jeff Strom, head of our Building Materials Distribution operations. Turning to slide 2, I would point out the information regarding our forward-looking statements. The appendix includes reconciliations from our GAAP net income to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA and segment income to segment EBITDA. I will now turn the call over to Nate.

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

Thanks, Kelly. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our earnings call today. I'm on slide number three. Our third quarter sales of $1.9 billion were up 18% from third quarter 2020. Our net income was $91.7 million, or $2.31 per share, compared to net income of $103.2 million or $2.61 per share in the year-ago quarter. Third quarter 2020 results included a $10.5 million after-tax loss on extinguishment of debt or $0.27 per share as we refinanced our senior notes. In third quarter 2021, total U.S. housing starts increased 8% compared to the same period last year. Single-family housing starts, the primary driver of our sales volumes, increased 5%.

Our associates' performance was simply outstanding during the quarter, faced with historic declines in commodity prices and ongoing challenges related to COVID-19. Our Wood Products manufacturing business reported segment income of $122.1 million in the third quarter, compared to $66 million in the year ago quarter. Wood Products benefited from higher plywood pricing levels and improved EWP sales realizations and volumes compared to last year's third quarter. Sequentially, sharp plywood price decreases were offset partially by continued EWP price increases resulting from prior period pricing actions. Our Building Materials Distribution business reported segment income of $16.6 million on sales of $1.7 billion for the third quarter, compared to $107.9 million of segment income on sales of $1.4 billion in the comparative prior year quarter.

BMD's results were negatively impacted by historic declines in commodity wood products pricing. Higher sales volumes and gross margin on our engineered wood and general line products helped to mitigate the negative impacts from the commodity price declines. Kelly will walk through the financial results in more detail, and then I'll come back and provide our outlook before we take your questions. Kelly?

Kelly Hibbs
SVP, CFO, and Treasurer, Boise Cascade Company

Thank you, Nate. Wood Products sales in the third quarter, including sales to our distribution segment, were $497.3 million, compared to $363.7 million in third quarter 2020. As Nate mentioned, Wood Products reported segment income of $122.1 million in the third quarter, compared to $66 million in the prior year quarter. Reported EBITDA for the business was $136 million, up from EBITDA of $80 million reported in the year-ago quarter. The increase in segment income was due primarily to higher EWP plywood and lumber sales prices as well as higher EWP sales volumes. These improvements were offset partially by higher wood fiber costs and lower margins on inventory purchased for resale through certain customer programs.

BMD sales in the quarter were $1.7 billion, up 20% from third quarter 2020. Sales prices increased 23%, offset by a sales volume decrease of 3%. The business reported segment income of $16.6 million or EBITDA of $22.6 million in the third quarter. This compares to segment income of $107.9 million and EBITDA of $113.6 million in the prior year quarter. The decline in segment income was driven primarily by a gross margin decrease of $100.5 million, resulting from a sharp decline in commodity prices during third quarter 2021. The negative impacts from commodity price declines were offset partially by higher sales volumes and gross margin percentages for EWP and general line products, as well as decreased selling and distribution expenses of $7.8 million.

The amounts for unallocated corporate costs and other items impacting our reported adjusted EBITDA can be found in the tables of our earnings release. The net of those items was -$9.2 million in third quarter 2021, compared with -$15.4 million in third quarter 2020. The decrease was due primarily to lower employee-related expenses of $3 million, most of which relates to incentive compensation. In addition, third quarter 2020 results included approximately $3.2 million of estimated business interruption losses absorbed at the corporate level related to disruptions at Wood Products facilities as part of our self-insured risk retention program. Turning to Slide five. Our third quarter sales volumes for I-Joist and LVL were up 21% and 2% respectively compared with third quarter 2020. Demand for EWP continued to be strong through the quarter, fueled by increased housing starts.

Pricing in third quarter for I-Joist and LVL were up 16% and 14% respectively compared with second quarter 2021. As previously announced, price increases continue to take effect and certain temporary price protection arrangements expire. Turning to Slide six. Our third quarter plywood sales volume in Wood Products was 314 million feet compared to 316 million ft in third quarter 2020. However, plywood sales volumes were down 7% sequentially due to rolling curtailments taken to assist in balancing supply and demand and additional pandemic-related disruptions during third quarter. The $561 per thousand average plywood net sales price in third quarter was up 31% from third quarter 2020. However, not unlike other commodity wood products, plywood prices declined sharply during the third quarter, decreasing 36% sequentially.

As we exited the third quarter, plywood pricing has stabilized, but price realizations thus far in fourth quarter are still approximately 30% below third quarter average levels. Moving to slide seven. BMD's third quarter sales were $1.7 billion, up 20% from third quarter 2020. By product area, BMD's commodity sales increased 7%, general line product sales increased 20%, and EWP increased 57%. Gross margin dollars generated declined by $100.5 million in third quarter compared to the same quarter last year. The gross margin percentage for BMD was 7.9%, down 850 basis points from the 16.4% reported in third quarter 2020. BMD's EBITDA margin was 1.3% for the quarter, down from the 7.9% reported in the year-ago quarter.

The sharp decline in commodity prices during the quarter is evident in BMD's results. However, higher sales volumes and gross margin percentages for EWP and general line products, as well as decreased selling and distribution expenses of $7.8 million, helped offset the impact of falling commodity prices. Demand remains healthy, commodity prices have stabilized, and BMD's commodity inventory was well-positioned as we exited the third quarter. Given this backdrop, we anticipate gross margins returning to normalized levels in the fourth quarter. I'm now on Slide eight. This slide shows the sharp decline in lumber pricing starting late second quarter and continuing through the majority of the third quarter before finding stability in September. Turning to Slide nine. Although lagging the lumber price decline somewhat, the Random Lengths composite panel index reflects sharp price declines in the third quarter as well.

Commodity product pricing could continue to be volatile as we move through fourth quarter. Pricing movements from current levels will likely be determined by the strength of end market consumption and industry operating rates, both of which could be influenced by seasonal impacts of winter weather, supply chain uncertainties, and ongoing challenges with labor. On Slide 10, we have set out the key elements of our working capital. Net working capital, excluding cash, income tax items, accrued interes,t and dividends payable, decreased to $147.5 million during the third quarter. Accounts receivable, inventory, and accounts payable all decreased with the deceleration of sales in the quarter as commodity pricing fell. An increase in accrued rebates contributed to the increase in accrued liabilities.

The statistical information filed as Exhibit 99.2 to our 8-K has the receivables, inventory, and accounts payable data broken down by segment for those interested in the details. I'm now on Slide 11. We finished third quarter with $787 million of cash. Our total available liquidity at September 30th was approximately $1.1 billion, which reflects our cash and availability under our committed bank line. We had $444 million of outstanding debt at September 30th, 2021. We expect capital expenditures in 2021 to total approximately $90 million-$100 million. Our capital spending in 2021 includes completion of a log utilization center project at our Florien Plywood and Veneer plant, a new door assembly operation in Houston, and expansion of our distribution capabilities in the Nashville market.

Looking forward to 2022, our current expectations are for capital spending, excluding acquisitions, to range from $100 million- $130 million. Our 2022 capital expenditure range is purposefully wide at this time as availability of engineering and construction resources and timing and availability of equipment purchases is expected to have an influence on 2022 spending. In addition, capital spending could also increase or decrease as a result of a number of factors, including acquisitions, efforts to further accelerate organic growth, exercise of lease purchase options, our financial results, and future economic conditions. Our effective tax rate is expected to be between 25% and 27%, with the potential that ongoing federal legislation activity increases future tax rates. Our board recently approved a $0.02 per share or 20% increase in our quarterly dividend effective with our December dividend payment.

In addition, in light of our higher than targeted cash balance, the Board also approved a supplemental dividend of $3 per share, our second supplemental dividend of 2021. After payment of the supplemental dividend, we remain well-positioned with sufficient cash and reserve, t o remain focused on the execution of our strategies, including future organic and acquisition growth opportunities. Our overarching objective remains to successfully grow our business while generating appropriate returns on shareholder capital. I will turn it back over to Nate to discuss our business outlook.

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

Thanks, Kelly. I'm on slide 12. The demand environment for new residential construction continues to be favorable, supported by low mortgage rates, continuation of work from home practices by many, and demographics in the U.S. We expect strength in residential construction activity to continue for the remainder of 2021 and into next year. The October Blue Chip consensus for U.S. housing starts is 1.59 million for 2021 and 1.57 million for 2022. In addition, the age of U.S. housing stock and limited home inventory availability will continue to provide a favorable backdrop for repair and remodel spending. Although we believe the current U.S. demographics support the level of forecasted housing starts, and many national home builders are reporting strong near-term backlogs, labor shortages and supply-induced constraints on residential construction activity may continue to extend build times and limit activity.

In addition, the pace of residential construction and repair and remodeling activity may be affected by the economic impact of cost of building materials and construction, housing affordability, mortgage interest rates, wage growth, prospective home buyers' access to financing, and consumer confidence as well as other factors. Demand for EWP remains strong, and pricing efforts on EWP have maintained traction and will help offset impacts from lower plywood pricing. As always, we will continue to focus on innovation as a means to mitigate rising input costs and help address labor shortages. In BMD, the demand environment remains good across our customer base, and our inventory is well positioned. We are excited our Houston door assembly operation and our national expansion are operational and appreciate all those in BMD and our corporate teams who have contributed to those efforts.

Our balance sheet continues to afford us the ability to continue our pursuit of further growth opportunities within BMD. As we wrap up our formal comments, I'm gonna express my appreciation for our associates. The last year and a half has thrust upon us many challenges never before experienced. I am incredibly proud of how our associates as we continue to navigate in a climate where patience and flexibility is a must. Our proven values of integrity, safety, respect, and pursuit of excellence continue to serve us incredibly well and will continue to be our foundation moving forward. We will continue to make sure we use our operating and financial strength to the benefit of our customers, suppliers, communities, and shareholders. Thank you for joining us today and for your continued support and interest.

We welcome any questions at this time. Chris, would you please open the phone lines?

Operator

Yes, sir. Our first question comes from Mark Wilde of Bank of Montreal. Your line is open.

Mark Wilde
Managing Director, Bank of Montreal

Morning, Nate.

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

Morning, Mark.

Mike Brown
VP of Wood Products Operations, Boise Cascade Company

Morning, Mark.

Mark Wilde
Managing Director, Bank of Montreal

Just to start out, guys, I wondered if you could just talk with us about EWP pricing. I mean, your sort of sequential increase was quite a bit smaller than one of your big public peers who reported at the end of last week. I wondered if you could just help unpack that at least a little bit. I mean, how much is timing and mix? I think, Nate, you mentioned the end of some price protection that was out in the market. Just trying to think about the difference and also to think about, you know, what kind of lies ahead over the next couple of quarters. I know that EWP prices always take three or four quarters to roll in.

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

Yeah, Mark. Yeah, I can't speak to the comparison of us versus the peer you referenced. I mean, in terms of what the timing, what the announcements they had, and maybe what mechanisms they have down the channel in terms of rebates and whatnot. I can't really. I wouldn't venture a guess to compare on that. In terms of specific to us, yeah, we did see sequential kind of 14%-16% across our product lines, and we feel good about that.

I would say looking forward, I'd give you a little guidance here for the next couple sequential quarters, Mark, that would be, you know, mid to high single digits as we move forward from here, as we continue to kind of layer on and get the benefits of the announced increases we've announced and the price protection mechanisms kind of roll off.

Mark Wilde
Managing Director, Bank of Montreal

Kelly, just to be clear, is that mid to high single digits sequentially for a couple of quarters?

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

Yes, Mark.

Mark Wilde
Managing Director, Bank of Montreal

Okay. Is it possible? We don't see a lot of announcements typically around sort of EWP capacity. Is it possible to get some sense of what's out there on the horizon? I mean, I know that a big privately held company from Oregon put a new facility in South Carolina a little while ago. I think that is up and running. But can you give us a general sense of what is out there incrementally in your business lines in EWP?

Mike Brown
VP of Wood Products Operations, Boise Cascade Company

Good morning, Mark. Yes, Mike. Good to hear from you.

Mark Wilde
Managing Director, Bank of Montreal

Hi, Mike.

Mike Brown
VP of Wood Products Operations, Boise Cascade Company

The facility that you just referred to, I would say that, you know, they are up and running, but certainly not running at anywhere near capacity from what I hear. I'm not aware of any additional incremental EWP capacity of any significance that is being thought about or brought online at this point in time. I would say that most that are in the EWP manufacturing sector continue to struggle with the same issues that many others are struggling with. Namely, not always being able to get the workforce that's necessary to run all the equipment, as we or they might like. Particularly in the EWP area, I've spoken about this previously.

There is a shortage of the types of veneer, the types of fiber that's necessary to go in to make those sort of products. There has been a little bit more of that has become available since plywood prices declined, but it wasn't a huge transformation or sort of shift in availability. Maybe a little bit more EWP is being produced now than let's say six to eight months ago, but there's no big projects that I'm aware of that are on the horizon to add additional capacity.

Mark Wilde
Managing Director, Bank of Montreal

That's helpful, Mike. I hadn't seen anything, but again, it's a little harder to kind of track, I think, in engineered wood. The last question from me, the distribution results were quite a bit weaker than we expected. Can you just talk about the drag from falling commodity prices and, you know, sort of any losses on inventory that you might have taken during the third quarter?

Kelly Hibbs
SVP, CFO, and Treasurer, Boise Cascade Company

Yeah, sure. Mark, this is Kelly. I'll take the first crack at it, and then others can jump in if they want. You may recall from our comments when we were speaking to you about the second quarter, we had roughly a $12 million LCM that we recorded against BMD's inventory at June 30th. Then I would tell you, and if you look at the commodity price crash that you're well attuned to, prices fell substantially from July through August before finding some stability in September. I would say there was a lot of wreckage in our income statement in BMD in July and in August as we were turning our inventory. I would say the team did a nice job of liquidating, turning that high priced inventory.

When we get to the end of September, we don't have an LCM. We've moved our high price inventory and, as I alluded to in the comments, we feel good about our position and that we can return to normalized levels of gross margins as we move through the fourth quarter.

Mark Wilde
Managing Director, Bank of Montreal

Okay. That's really helpful, Kelly.

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

Mark, maybe just another quick comment on that. I think as we look at the quarter, as Kelly described, you know, I think we feel good about our inventory position. I think as we think about, you know, probably the dependence some of our customers will have on distribution, we see that continuing to grow. You know, people I think are a bit more measured on their working capital. I think that, you know, again, speaks incredibly well and supports our distribution business. As we move forward in the quarter, again, we feel good about our inventory position, but also feel good that, you know, maybe some of the dependency from the marketplace will actually increase as we close out 2021.

Mark Wilde
Managing Director, Bank of Montreal

Okay, that's helpful. I'll turn it over, Nate. Thank you.

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

Great. Thanks, Mark.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you'll need to press star one on your telephone. To withdraw your question, please press the pound key. Our next question comes from George Staphos of Bank of America. Your line is open.

George Staphos
Managing Director, Bank of America

Thanks. Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the details. Hope you're doing well.

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

Morning, George.

Kelly Hibbs
SVP, CFO, and Treasurer, Boise Cascade Company

Hey, George.

George Staphos
Managing Director, Bank of America

How's it going? Congratulations on the quarter. You know, I wanted to dig in a little bit to EWP and what you're seeing given the very good pricing traction that you're getting, and others are getting in the market relative to any, you know, competing activity, maybe loss of share, if any at all, to, you know, traditional dimensional lumber since obviously lumber prices are lower. Are you seeing any effect of that in the market right now? Then kind of a related question, you know, your customers are having to deal with labor shortages. They're obviously getting higher prices on their homes, and they're happy about that, but at the same time, there's some, you know, a boomerang effect that could happen from that on demand at some point.

What are your customers doing in terms of their plans for building next year that could either benefit or retard some of the business trends that you'll be seeing in 2022?

Kelly Hibbs
SVP, CFO, and Treasurer, Boise Cascade Company

Let me. I think that there's a two-parter there, Mark. Sorry, George. Let me take the first one, and then maybe I'll pass it to Nate on the second one.

George Staphos
Managing Director, Bank of America

Sure.

Kelly Hibbs
SVP, CFO, and Treasurer, Boise Cascade Company

The first one in terms of kind of EWP pricing relative to two by 10s, for example, and do we see some sort of a shift, if you will, away from EWP in that sort of environment? We really don't. The demand environment, the order file for EWP is still solid. As you referenced, you know, labor is a challenge. The national home builders, for them, EWP on the job site is a much more efficient product to install. We really don't see them transitioning back. Might there be some small things on the frames that might change, that might shift a little bit now and again? I suppose, but on a broad scale, we really don't see it.

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

Hey, George.

George Staphos
Managing Director, Bank of America

Okay.

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

Maybe on your second question on maybe some of the, you know, the trends or kind of what customers are describing to us. I think what we're experiencing as we close out 2021 and head into next year is probably more consistency in terms of the kind of the cadence of housing starts. I think builders have done a good job of kind of matching the industry's capabilities on a range of products and services to their demands. I think that stability and cadence has frankly improved as we've closed out 2021, and I expect that to be a theme as we head into 2022.

In terms of, you know, their markets and kind of what we're hearing or experiencing from them is, I think, the, you know, things that they're looking at are the things all of us are looking at relative to interest rates and affordability and such. In terms of the, you know, the momentum and the confidence, I think across many geographies, across many price points in single family, multifamily, even light commercial, I think there's good confidence as we close out this year and head into next year. Again, I think that's gonna be supported, you know, by a range of builders across a number of segments.

I think we feel good about, you know, what's in front of us in 2022, and I think it'll have a similar maybe look and feel as we, you know, close out 2021 again around, you know, kind of cadence and what we're experiencing in the market.

George Staphos
Managing Director, Bank of America

Hey, Nate, one just quick follow-on on that. Are you hearing from your customers that they're seeing, you know? There was a lot of discussion on this earlier in the year and into 2020, you know, the addition of home office space on homes, the addition of rooms and square footage for, you know, home schooling facilities if you needed it, you know, if we're in another lockdown. Or are you seeing, you know, a drive towards different floor plans or smaller homes? Any other thoughts around that? Recognizing you said it's gonna be pretty consistent. I had a quick one on mass timber. What are your expectations for the growth there? If you could talk a little bit about your relative level of interest, which seemed to be relatively high last quarter on mass timber and the developments there. Thanks.

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

Sure. Yeah, I think in terms of, you know, kind of the home footprints and what people are looking for.

George Staphos
Managing Director, Bank of America

Yeah

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

I think the flexibility and, you know, kind of the optionality continues to be a theme. I think it's maybe settled down a little bit as things like, you know, schooling have gotten maybe a little bit more normalized and, maybe there's a little bit less pressure than there was, six months ago, or certainly 12 months ago. I think in terms of the flexibility of the home and what the home needs to deliver, you know, beyond the living space, it also has to include, to your point, maybe a home office, some schooling, the kind of the recreation component. You know, we think some of those trends have been in place and will continue to be in place, and it's something that we're, you know, kind of watching carefully and closely.

In terms of mass timber, I'll make a quick comment or two and then hand it over to Mike Brown. Yeah, we continue to see, you know, mass timber as an important solution in terms of light commercial or high story construction in the marketplace. We think it solves a number of problems on the job site, as well as obviously the, you know, kind of the carbon capability that wood construction brings as compared to steel and concrete. Mike, do you wanna add any, you know, comments in terms of, you know, kind of where we're at and how we're thinking about that opportunity as we move forward?

Mike Brown
VP of Wood Products Operations, Boise Cascade Company

Yeah, sure, Nate. So I guess, George, I'd add that, you know, we're sort of watching with great interest the investments that are being made by some others across the United States, some U.S.-based companies and some from offshore. We certainly looked at with great interest at some of the opportunities that have come to market over the last, you know, six to 12 months. At this stage, we're sort of in that watch and wait and evaluate position. It's, you know, we believe, we firmly believe that there'll be opportunities in the future, whether we decide to do it through, you know, organic or through acquisition. It's just a matter of timing, and we'll see how that progresses over the next, you know, 12-24 months.

George Staphos
Managing Director, Bank of America

All right. Thanks. I'll turn it over, guys. Thank you.

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

Thanks, George.

Mike Brown
VP of Wood Products Operations, Boise Cascade Company

Thanks, George.

Operator

Thank you. Up next, we have Susan Maklari of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Charles Perron-Piché
VP of Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Hi, everyone. This is Charles Perron-Piché in for Susan today. Thanks for taking my question. First, I just wanna circle back on the BMD and looking at the EBITDA margins going into Q4. You mentioned that margins should return, I think, at normal levels. Given the recent stabilization in commodity prices, do you think a margin performance similar to Q4 a year ago is realistic at this point, given the current conditions?

Kelly Hibbs
SVP, CFO, and Treasurer, Boise Cascade Company

Yeah. If you looked at Q4 a year ago, BMD reported gross margins of 13% and EBITDA margin of 5.5%. I would say if you look for us, a lot of it's gonna be about not what the relative value is of commodity pricing, but very much what is the trajectory? Is it up? Is it down? Is it sideways? That will have a large influence on our results in the fourth quarter for BMD. But yeah, if we find...

If the stability we've seen so far in the fourth quarter holds and then, you know, and I suspect EWP and General Line will remain firm, I would say, you know, that gross margin of 13% that might be, you know, that's probably achievable. That's a little bit higher than what we've seen in some normalized periods, but certainly we should be well above the third quarter results that we just posted.

Charles Perron-Piché
VP of Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Got it. That's very good color. Thanks very much, Kelly.

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

You bet.

Charles Perron-Piché
VP of Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Just to follow up on the DIY demand, some of your peers have commented on a pickup of activity post Labor Day. I was wondering if you have seen similar pickup in activity on the lumber side so far, and what are expectations as well going into year-end?

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

Hi, Charles, it's Nate Jorgensen. You know, I think in terms of, to your point on the do it yourself, obviously the third quarter was a bit of a rollercoaster, you know, in terms of they were somewhat soft early in the quarter. I think, you know, certainly there was good strength and stability as we finished the quarter and with that customer segment. I think we're experiencing that today across a range of products and services, across each of our geographies. I think in terms of our expectation on the repair and remodel segment, especially, you know, the professional remodeler, we feel good about, you know, how they're thinking about the balance of this year and into 2022 as well.

I think again, that little bubble that we experienced in Q3 with that specific customer is largely behind us and feel good about the momentum that's in place today.

Charles Perron-Piché
VP of Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Thanks, Nate, for that. Just if I can squeeze one last one. Looking at your CapEx guide for next year, it looks like it's up quite nicely versus this year. You know, I understand the variability in there, as you mentioned in your prepared remarks, but any projects that you wanna highlight or any area of your business where you think you wanna be adding capacity, given the current market conditions?

Kelly Hibbs
SVP, CFO, and Treasurer, Boise Cascade Company

Yeah. Charles, let me start and then I can let others jump in, as they see fit. I would not reference that increase in terms of adding capacity. What I would reference it as is really part of our capital allocation strategy, which is to invest in our existing asset base. In what products? You know, we're certainly gonna try to accelerate a little bit in some replacement and infrastructure type spending. That's all about for us, as you've commonly heard us supporting our internal veneer capabilities. There's, you know, some projects in the Southeast we wanna get done. There's some replacement infrastructure work at our Oakdale plywood and veneer plant, for example. We do plan on replacing a dryer at our Chester, South Carolina, facility.

We do expect to get, you know, maybe a little bit of cost savings and some efficiencies obviously from doing that spending, but it's not about growing capacity. Then on the BMD side, typically one of the big buckets for them is going to be rolling stock, so tractors, trailers, hysters. Then we're gonna have racking and paving. Then we have a few organic opportunities that are embedded in BMD spending in 2022. It's that we think are gonna happen. It's a little too early to specify what those are. But for them, it's a fair bit of rolling stock and a little bit of organic growth in existing markets that we have today.

I would say, you know, given the broadness of the range, that's purposeful, as I mentioned in the comments, just because of the supply chain challenges that we see throughout the world today. For example, rolling stock, I suspect that we may be challenged to bring in as many tractors and Hyster that we would like to, just given the constraints in the chain.

Charles Perron-Piché
VP of Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

No, it totally makes sense. Appreciate the color. Thanks for the time.

Kelly Hibbs
SVP, CFO, and Treasurer, Boise Cascade Company

You bet.

Operator

Thank you. Next, we have Reuben Garner of Benchmark. Your line is open.

Reuben Garner
Equity Research Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Thank you. Good morning, everybody.

Kelly Hibbs
SVP, CFO, and Treasurer, Boise Cascade Company

Hey, Reuben.

Reuben Garner
Equity Research Analyst, The Benchmark Company

A couple questions on BMD. Maybe first on the volume front, and if you answered this in your prepared remarks, I apologize if I missed it. The volume decline that you saw, looks like quick math, it largely came on the sort of the commodity products that you sell. How much of that, I guess, can you just talk about the volume decline? What was the driver there? Was that you guys just kind of being cautious with inventory, with where prices were and maybe missing or intentionally missing out on some business to not lose money? Just talk to me about the BMD volume in the quarter.

Jeff Strom
EVP of Building Materials Distribution, Boise Cascade Company

Hey, Reuben. This is Jeff. I'll start on the commodity side like you just spoke of. You know, towards the end of the second quarter, you could see where the market was going. I would tell you, absolutely, you know, we took our foot off the gas pedal of what we're purchasing, trying to get our inventory, you know, for the big decline. We spent the entire quarter, you know, trying to move that inventory out and repositioning ourselves. On EWP and general line products, you know, we are in an incredibly constrained supply environment. With managed supply like we have, it really is hard to grow and to take share. Our ability to really expand it would be limited. I think we did a great job with what we had, but our opportunities are limited there.

Reuben Garner
Equity Research Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Okay. Then on the margin front in the quarter, can you remind us what the lag is to, from the commodity moves to when it flows through to your business? For some reason, two weeks is sticking in my head. In other words, I think that the price decline for commodities started, especially for lumber, late in the second quarter, and the stabilization kind of that started in September, you wouldn't have seen much of that. You basically dealt with the declining environment the entire quarter in your P&L. Is that right?

Kelly Hibbs
SVP, CFO, and Treasurer, Boise Cascade Company

Yeah, certainly. Yeah. The lag you may have heard referenced in the past is maybe a little bit more like on our Wood Products business in terms of plywood and having order files. We didn't see the substantial decline in July in our Wood Products results. In terms of BMD, as you know, our distribution customers are obviously very educated, and they understand where the market is. Yeah, that's pretty real time. As the market starts to tip over, our inventory loses value pretty quickly. And we have you know inventory on the ground, and we've also got inventory rolling at us. It takes us some time to get out of the way of that.

Reuben Garner
Equity Research Analyst, The Benchmark Company

We've heard that there's some, you know, shadow inventory out there, inventory that maybe you guys have on the yards or your customers have on the yards that's already spoken for. What's the supply-demand environment really like today, in the industry from a commodity standpoint?

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

Yeah. Reuben, it's Nate. I'll think in terms of the, you know, in some cases, customers may have projects and they'll place orders, you know, for products and services. That's maybe not uncommon in areas like multifamily or hot-hotel/motel construction, where they'll buy, you know, kind of blocks of material and that'll be delivered over a series of weeks and months. Sometimes that is the, you know, maybe the element of inventory that is sold but hasn't yet maybe shipped. I think in terms of inventory levels overall, you know, I think all again, there are certain products and services that remain very constrained, as Jeff described.

You know, generally, EWP remains challenged, I think, across the channel. We don't expect that likelihood to really change as we finish off this year and head into next year. I think in terms of commodities, it feels relatively balanced based on what we can see today. Obviously, there's seasonality that'll factor into it. I think customers are, you know, looking at year-end and making sure that they're measured in terms of what their, you know, inventory footprint is, you know, in some cases for tax reasons. We see maybe a little bit more deliberate approach as we finish off this year.

Again, in terms of overall confidence on demand as we close out this year, heading into next year on residential construction as well as commercial, I think again, there's good confidence and good momentum as we close out this year. Again, recognizing weather could have, you know, some impact on that as well.

Reuben Garner
Equity Research Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Great. Thanks, guys. Congrats on the quarter and good luck navigating through the rest of the year.

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

Thanks, Reuben.

Operator

Thank you. Next we have a follow-up from Mark Wilde of Bank of Montreal. Your line is open.

Mark Wilde
Managing Director, Bank of Montreal

Thanks. Yeah, just a few follow-ups. Actually, first on the building materials side, are there any pieces of the building materials market where aside from kind of commodity lumber panels, where you've actually started to see an easing in any of the supply constraints?

Jeff Strom
EVP of Building Materials Distribution, Boise Cascade Company

Hey, this is Jeff. Mark, I would tell you, we really have not. It has just continued on and with no end in sight. On top of that, we're seeing the transportation issues really ramp up as well, which is causing more and more problems.

Mark Wilde
Managing Director, Bank of Montreal

Yeah. Okay. Not great to hear, but it's good to understand it. Then, Mike, can you talk about, you know, order of magnitude COVID disruptions in the third quarter and what you've seen so far in the fourth quarter? It seems like, you know, you've had some issues, you know, over the last several quarters, particularly down in Louisiana, but maybe down in Southern Oregon as well.

Mike Brown
VP of Wood Products Operations, Boise Cascade Company

Yeah. Sure, Mark. Yeah, you are quite correct. In the third quarter, I'd say, the month of, I guess it was August, my memory is correct, was the worst month that we've had since the start of the pandemic in terms of number of direct COVID cases, obviously, that needed to be quarantined or through our contact tracing. It was a really pretty tough month. I'd say in general, since then, there's been a sort of steady decline in the number of cases, so we're in a better position, if you wanna call it that, today than we were a couple of months back. In terms of how that impacted our manufacturing operations, yes, it certainly did reduce our potential to produce all products.

You know, you understand the way we run our integrated model. I would say as a very high level rough rule of thumb, maybe we lost 5% of our production, but it was sort of spasmodic, you know, in different mills at different days, different weeks. What we tended to do was juggle the crews that we have in each of the locations to sort of cover each of the machine centers to maximize the production that we could with the people that we had. It wasn't a huge impact to our manufacturing on a volume basis. But our associates did a tremendous job. You know, they worked a huge amount of overtime. I think that's really how we managed to get through the quarter without seeing a more significant reduction in our manufacturing volume.

Mark Wilde
Managing Director, Bank of Montreal

Okay. Jeff, did it have any impact, would you say in the third quarter in BMD business?

Jeff Strom
EVP of Building Materials Distribution, Boise Cascade Company

You know, I would tell you on the business itself, the impact was really to the associates. You know, it did an impact on what we could do, but there always felt like there's a few people out, and so we were relying on the other people to pick up for them, and they did that. You know, just kind of what Mike said as well, our associates did an unbelievable job carrying that water for each other, but no real impact to the business other than that.

Mark Wilde
Managing Director, Bank of Montreal

Okay. All right. That's helpful. Hey, last one. I'm just, like, curious. We are seeing kind of this continuing trend of consolidation in the wood product sector, and I wonder if that's having any impact on your business, particularly the distribution business. I'm very conscious that one of your longer term, kind of, strategic partners was involved in a transaction earlier this year. Does that. Can you just talk about any kind of potential ripple effect this process is having on your business?

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

Mark, it's Nate. I think, you know, in terms of the consolidation, I think that's something that we've obviously to your point, have seen and really have expected, you know, kind of throughout the channel. I think. You know, for us, for Boise Cascade, I think one of the things that I think we've been able to deliver is a level of consistency and predictability on both businesses for a period of time. When there are changes in the channel and consolidation, I think we represent, you know, that, like a level of consistency and predictability that, you know, I think our customers and our suppliers really depend upon as we go through this.

My view is that we'll likely see more consolidation, more things happen, but in terms of our, I think our consistency in terms of who we are, what we do, and you know, plugging our balance sheet to work, I feel good about, again, how we're positioned and, you know, what we can do in support of our customers as we move forward.

Mark Wilde
Managing Director, Bank of Montreal

Okay. All right. That's very helpful, Nate. Good luck in the fourth quarter and looking into next year.

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

Great. Thanks, Mark.

Operator

Thank you. We have a follow-up from George Staphos of Bank of America. Your line is open.

George Staphos
Managing Director, Bank of America

Thanks. Hi, guys. Just a couple of cleanups from me. One, if you hadn't mentioned already, can you just talk a little bit about what you think wood costs will be into fourth quarter and to some degree, if you have any kind of view, recognizing it could change quite a bit, into the first quarter? Can you update us on what you're seeing right now in terms of imports of plywood from South America into your key markets? Thanks, guys. Good luck in the quarter.

Mike Brown
VP of Wood Products Operations, Boise Cascade Company

Sure thing, George. Yeah, it's Mike. Last question first. If you look at the import volumes in recent times from Brazil, they've declined massively. That would be the latest data I saw was September, and I think the import volume from Brazil was, like, 55,000 cubes. That was down by about two-thirds compared to the highest volume, which I think was a couple months before that. It was, like, 165,000 cubes in maybe July. It's come off very, very considerably. However, if you look at the year-to-date number, it's actually up, like, 30% year-over-year. A lot of volume came in, I would say, in the first half of the year.

George Staphos
Managing Director, Bank of America

Hey, Mike. What's going on there, do you think? I mean, is it just going into Europe at a later part of the year relative to what is typically the seasonal trend? Or is it anything related to the trade case and the certification issue that exists, you know, between U.S. and Brazil? Or something entirely different or not clear? Which-

Mike Brown
VP of Wood Products Operations, Boise Cascade Company

Yeah.

George Staphos
Managing Director, Bank of America

Perfectly fine answer as well.

Mike Brown
VP of Wood Products Operations, Boise Cascade Company

Yes, and yes. I think what I would say, George, is you know, ocean freight, as we all know, has just ballooned. I mean, it's just unbelievable what a container costs these days. On a landed basis, while our pricing was terrible for plywood relative to the past, you know, that certainly turned the importers off, you know, the Brazilians in particular. But on a landed basis, you know, with the cost of freight imputed in the final delivered number, that really impacted them very severely.

They did have some point in time in Brazil. They're going back a few months. They had some very significant COVID-related activities, and that sort of overlapped with the reduction in plywood prices here in the U.S., so some mills in Brazil curtailed quite significantly, so that reduced the total volume. Then to your very good point, yeah, it's about that time of year again, where the Brazilians, not only the Brazilians, but particularly the Brazilians, turn their eyes to Europe because there's that quota. I think it's that first 600,000 m³ of plywood that enters Europe is tariff-free or tax-free. I think that's between 6% and 8%. So there is that going on as well. So combination of factors. I guess we'll see what happens going into next year.

You've got the wood costs. I think you're probably referring most specifically to log costs.

George Staphos
Managing Director, Bank of America

Yep.

Mike Brown
VP of Wood Products Operations, Boise Cascade Company

Log costs in the south are pretty much flat, and have been flat and continue to be flat. I would say, as some of these sawmills start to ramp up, and you've heard or seen all those announcements, we'll wait and see how that plays out. There could be some specific geographies that have additional pressure. I don't see it ramping up significantly, you know, in the very, very near future. There could be a little bit of increase, I'll say, over the next, you know, five to 10 years as all these mills come online.

George Staphos
Managing Director, Bank of America

Okay. There's been a steady creep in the south, upwards for a change, I would say. From your standpoint, nothing significant, nothing to, you know, adjust your operating plan. You wouldn't adjust an operating plan per se on that, but nonetheless nothing that's significant in your view in terms of calling a new trend.

Mike Brown
VP of Wood Products Operations, Boise Cascade Company

No, I would not do that, George, no. I think creep is the right word. It's been creeping since I was young. Then in the Pacific Northwest, you know, obviously, quarter-over-quarter, you know, quarter three last year relative to quarter three this year, you know, the Pacific Northwest log costs were up very significantly. They're sort of, kind of plateaued, I would say, at the moment. You know, obviously with lumber pricing coming off, which is really the major determinant of log prices, you know, we may see a little bit of creep down, but I don't think it'll come off very significantly anytime soon because we're starting to see a little bit of, you know, increase in lumber pricing, so.

George Staphos
Managing Director, Bank of America

Right.

Mike Brown
VP of Wood Products Operations, Boise Cascade Company

I would probably suspect that the Pacific Northwest and Inland West log pricing is going to be relatively, I'll say, flat or consistent going into 2022.

George Staphos
Managing Director, Bank of America

Thank you very much.

Mike Brown
VP of Wood Products Operations, Boise Cascade Company

Thanks, George.

Operator

Thank you. I see no further questions in the queue. I will now turn it back over to Kelly Hibbs for closing remarks.

Nate Jorgensen
CEO, Boise Cascade Company

I'll take this, Chris. It's Nate Jorgensen. Again, just to quickly close, we appreciate everyone joining us this morning for our product update, and thank you for your continued interest and support of Boise Cascade. Please be safe and be well. Thank you.

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