Thanks for joining us this morning. I'm Scott Gruber. I'm one of the energy analysts at Citigroup, and it gives me great pleasure to introduce Lorenzo Simonelli, the CEO of Baker Hughes. This is a position he's held since the merger was formed of the company back in 2017. Now, some of you may be asking, you know, why an energy company at the Industrials Conference? Baker is unique in the energy landscape, given that they operate a very large, essentially industrial business within their portfolio. So that's going to be the focus of our conversation today, but we'll hit on other sides of the business as well. Lorenzo, thank you very much for being here today.
Scott, thank you very much for the invite.
Great. Well, let's start off with, for those that don't know Baker well, you know, how would you describe Baker to those looking at the company for the first time? What are your greatest areas of differentiation, and why is your Industrial and Energy Technology business, we call it IET, why is the IET segment more industrial than oil service?
Definitely. And I think you have to go back to when we created the company and what we saw as what was going to be the evolution of the energy landscape. And I think as we stand here today, we're getting a much more appreciation for why Baker Hughes makes sense and is differentiated to other players. I'll start briefly just on the Oilf ield Services and Equipment side, which, again, is 55% of the business. It's a major segment. And if you think about the value chain of energy, and you think about the value chain of molecules and understanding molecules, it begins with also the subsurface and understanding the extraction, understanding how it comes out of the ground, and then how you monetize that by being able to convert it into something.
And that's where then you start to get into your Industrial and Energy Technology segment, which is really 45% of the business that allows you to really take that molecule, take the insight that you have, and be able to use industrial equipment such as gas turbines, compressors, valves, pumps, and liquefaction technology, compression of oil pipelines, onshore/offshore production, power generation, LNG, and make that molecule valuable. And as we look at what's happening in the space of energy, we know that there's an increase in demand, and that's going to require also an increase in the use of the equipment and services that we provide across Baker Hughes. And we think we're uniquely positioned because we actually have that capability and understanding across the value proposition. And there's many examples where we work with our customers across that value proposition.
Very happy also with the IET side that's the focus of this discussion because we have a large installed base, and we've also been very successful on being able to increase over the last couple of years the backlog and the future of the installed base going forward. Over $40 billion of orders have been coming in. We see a good line of sight to incremental orders, and all of that then turns into services as well, which I think gives a more durable, less cyclical, and also a better shareholder proposition within Baker Hughes.
That's a great overview. So let's dive into the IET segment a bit more. Starting with Gas Tech Equipment, you know, Baker dominates in providing mission-critical equipment across the gas value chain. So to set the stage, how do you see the longer-term macro outlook for natural gas? Is it a transition fuel? Is it a destination fuel? How would you describe that longer-term macro outlook?
Definitely a destination fuel. And we've been strong proponents of saying that for some time. We've also been strong proponents of saying that we're going to need more liquefied natural gas. As we look at the energy demand that's coming from the developing nations as well as developed nations, as you look at the growth in consumption from generative AI, even just normal consumption with regards to individuals on their computers, or as you go to the population continuing to increase, we see that this is the age of gas. And across our portfolio, we're very strong on gas, and it's been a focus of ours. And that's not to say that the other fuel types won't have a role to play, and also we won't see continued expansion of renewables, hydrogen, geothermal. However, gas is abundant and also very, I think, efficient and less emissive.
In our path toward a lower carbon economy, natural gas is going to be a key player, and our equipment and services play right into that.
LNG permitting approval here in the States has been in the news over the past year plus. What's the latest on LNG projects receiving permit approvals in the U.S., and how would that impact the cadence of LNG orders for Baker in 2025 and 2026?
We've held firm on our outlook for 2030 since 2019, that we would need globally an installed base capacity of 800 MTPA, and that hasn't changed, and we see a progression beyond 2030 of needing additional LNG as well, and you can see the offtake agreement starting to resemble that and reflect that. There was a pause, obviously, in 2024 here in the United States. That pause is subsiding, and we're seeing now the traction of the LNG projects in the United States come forward. You'd have seen the announcement of Commonwealth. You've seen the announcements of Venture Global, and we see a positive momentum, and whereas last year, very minimal FIDs on LNG, we still see now in the next two years, you know, 86 MTPA-100 MTPA that's going to be FIDed and continuing beyond that as well.
So, good progression, and you can see within our guidance as well that we issued for 2025, you know, the diversity of our portfolio on the equipment and services side because the compressors and the turbines, as well as the pumps, the valves, the capability we provide actually extends across not just LNG, but also gas infrastructure in total. And so we're able to navigate when these dips happen or these pauses happen. But now we're going to see an uptick in LNG and feel good that that's going to be sustained for the next couple of years.
The focus among investors is often, you know, what's going on in LNG down along the Gulf Coast, just given the flurry of activity and our abundance of natural gas. But the LNG story is really global. So how would you describe, you know, that outlook outside of the U.S.?
Very positive as well. I just, and coming back from an international trip where I had the opportunity to be in Qatar, I had the opportunity to be in Mozambique, and everybody is talking about gas. In Angola, they're talking about gas. So you look at the prospects going forward, and you look at the demand from Southeast Asia, from China, it's not going down, it's going up, and gas and LNG is going to play a large part. And for us as a company, Baker Hughes, if it's pipelines, we feel good about that, and you transport gas via pipelines. And you'll have seen in 2024, we had the Master Gas System 3 announced within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. As they continue to have gas, I'm sure they'll continue to think about further expansion plans.
As you think about Algeria with Hassi R'Mel being able to give the gas to Europe, and again, that's through a pipeline. But then you look at the LNG projects. Qatar obviously expanding to 142 MTPA. We are the provider of a lot of their liquefaction equipment. In fact, most of it that's being utilized. And as they continue to progress, we're working with them on opportunities. I mentioned Mozambique. People know about the projects there on LNG. And you're going to have a mix of pipeline gas as well as LNG, and we're well suited for both.
And you mentioned the gas developments in Saudi. Let's dig into that a little bit. You know, for those who aren't aware, can you describe what's going on in Saudi and what's the opportunity for Baker Hughes?
Clearly, Saudi Arabia is an important marketplace for Baker Hughes. We play significantly on the Oil field Services and Equipment side in the extraction of the oil, which has been predominantly the place that has been a center of attention with regards to offshore as well as onshore. It so happens, and you know, Saudi Arabia is also blessed with a lot of gas, and they are going heavily into displacing the oil that's utilized in the Kingdom to utilize the gas that they have, which has meant that the gas infrastructure buildout has to take place. Also, the gas fields such as Jafurah have to be developed, and we play an integral role in providing the equipment and the services that's required there.
And as they continue to reduce the oil that's used in Kingdom to be able to export it, there's going to be continuing a gas economy that's developed within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and displaces the oil that's used for power generation. So it makes a lot of sense from a Kingdom strategy of its energy infrastructure, and we're able to play in both. And they are blessed, obviously, with a lot of good molecules, and they're also continuing to look at new areas of growth. As you know, they have NEOM on hydrogen. They're looking at ammonia. They're looking at geothermal. And so for Baker Hughes, it's an area where we play an active role across the Kingdom as they continue to develop, and they have very ambitious plans that we follow.
Now, Saudi's undertaking one of the bigger kind of incremental unconventional gas developments. Where else could you see, whether it's unconventional gas or just, you know, gas that hasn't been exploited yet onshore, given infrastructure limitations? Where else could you see, you know, major gas developments be undertaken over the next few years outside of the U.S. and outside of Saudi?
You're seeing already a lot of activity starting in Argentina, and we've known for some time that Argentina is rich with gas, and there's an opportunity there for LNG. There's an opportunity there for the unconventional fields to be utilized. We're actively engaged in discussions. I think people know that there's already a decision to go on a floating FLNG that's going to be actually the first one to go. There's other projects that are being reviewed, but Argentina, just given the abundance and also their interest in becoming also an exporter, is something that we're tracking very closely and feel that is a good opportunity. I'd also point to Algeria. I think often it's forgotten that Algeria has one of the largest unconventional resources and also its proximity to Europe and the pipeline infrastructure it has, and that's another great opportunity for us as we continue to develop that.
Last year, it started with the compression of Hassi R'Mel, but there's much more expansion that they can do going forward. I think other areas of interest, you know, there's a lot of gas that's being found in the East Med, and I just am coming back from Egypt, where, you know, one of the big aspects of the discussion is creating a hub in Egypt to be sort of the collector of all of this gas and then be able to liquefy it or be able to pipe it within North Africa and also beyond. That's another great opportunity as we go forward. And then as you look at Southeast Asia, a lot of interesting developments that are, you know, continuing with regards to some brownfield. Obviously, you've got Indonesia, you've got Australia, and we're tracking those.
But I think for ourselves right now, key focus is seeing how Argentina develops, continuing to track Algeria, and then obviously Saudi Arabia and North America.
Very exciting and very global. Switching gears to another hot topic, power. There were a number of data center operators at your recent customer event in Florence. Now, Baker, you know, doesn't build utility-scale power plants, but you do play in the power market. Can you describe, you know, the solutions that you offer and the opportunities that you're seeing during this new age of power growth?
I'm glad. Thanks, Scott, for noticing that we had a variety of data center customers, hyperscalers, developers that were there to actually better introduce our technology. We're working with many of them because there is a speed to market, and having a grid capable of that speed to market means you're going to have to look for distributed power generation at this stage. We play very heavily in the 150-MW and below from a power generation perspective. We've got a line of industrial gas turbines that are suitable to be used as prime or backup power. Given our knowledge of the molecule and also the variety of equipment that we have, we can blend it with geothermal. We can also blend it with backup to the grid.
We can also have it 100% hydrogen ready, and we already have the 100% hydrogen ready gas turbine on the market as you see the changes that will evolve in the fuel types used. So the discussion with many of these developers, hyperscalers, is, okay, how do we have a strategy to get the data center up and running as quickly as possible and not waiting for the large-scale utility grid to be available? And that window is going to be unique for us, and that's why there were so many present at the conference, and we see it as an attractive marketplace for us as we continue to introduce our industrial gas turbines.
Again, investors often focus on the data center buildout and power demand growth in the U.S., but given Baker's footprint, you know, as a global service provider, what is that power opportunity on a global basis for you? What type of conversations are you having around the world?
Having many conversations, and it isn't just North America, U.S. It is also the Middle East, and with regards to the increase in energy demand there, it's Southeast Asia, again, just given by the CPUs that you're going to have. And so data centers are going to be needed in multiple locations. And the same discussions we're having here, we're having in those locations, the form of the solution may be different. In some cases, obviously, we're looking to partner up geothermal with the aspect of the gas turbines, and that's a solution that can be had. In some cases, it's going to link up with solar, and it depends on the environmental conditions, the qualities that obviously the location has. As we look at the energy demand on data centers, I mean, you're looking at data centers requiring the same amount of energy that Japan does.
That's something that I didn't anticipate, and it's happened very quickly, and we're ready to provide some capable solutions to those new customers.
Excellent. I want to turn to Gas Tech Services. It's one of the crown jewels in your portfolio. Can you discuss what makes this segment so special in terms of the growth visibility and the profit levels that you generate in the segment?
It's an area that we've been focusing on and trying to educate better because it's the one area of the business where it's after the initial transaction, you have this 25-30-year relationship, and a lot of the rest of the business is transactional in nature. Whereas here, with the equipment that we actually put into LNG, we put into FPSOs, we put into FLNGs, we put into data centers, we as the OEM then have this amazing opportunity to have a service stream. A lot of people know the old connotation of razor, razor, blade. Well, this is our opportunity to, again, be with the customer through the life cycle of the piece of equipment and actually provide reliability, productivity, and efficiency through the life cycle.
It represents a huge opportunity going forward because of our installed base increase that we're going to be having in the subsequent years with the backlog we've already brought in. You've seen it before as well. It's not just the backlog. It's also the opportunity for the mix because we're seeing a disproportionate cycle of LNG, which has got a higher attachment rate. We also see it from an upgrade perspective because we've got a lot of tenured equipment that's in the field that we can upgrade with new technology that's going to allow us to drive efficiency and give improved performance to the customers.
As you go across the board, you know, I think the way in which we innovate is going to be through the services portfolio that we have, and we see some fundamental characteristics of Tailwind, including also a positive pricing environment as we continue to enhance the opportunity to produce more with the installed base.
You mentioned the attachment rate. Can you discuss the attachment rate in LNG and elsewhere and how you see the service business and in LNG and for the rest of the portfolio growing over the next couple of years?
Definitely. There's, you know, critical equipment is what we provide. The criticality of that equipment varies with the end application. In LNG, obviously, this is very critical equipment, and it's required from the commitments that have been made by LNG players on the cargoes that have to be provided to end consumers and end customers. So there is a higher attachment rate when it comes to a contractual service agreement where we provide the reliability and also the guarantees associated with performance levels. And those can be anywhere from 10- to 25- to 30-year relationships that then also continue to mature. Depending on, again, the criticality of the equipment, if it's just being used as a standby, a customer may decide just to do parts and spares. And so it's a different type of transactional structure.
When it comes to floating LNG, we have a good mix of contractual service agreements as well as maintenance or repair or overhaul, and so we offer a complete portfolio of options that our customers can pick from, and depending on the criticality, they'll pick the one that's appropriate for them, and then we also provide opportunities for balance of plant and the remote monitoring, the diagnostics. This is where we're also able to incorporate a lot of our industrial solutions on the digital side with regards to making sure the uptime is there.
Excellent. Switching gears to another growth area, new energy and climate technology. You've had a goal for a couple of years now of hitting $6 billion-$7 billion of inbound orders in 2030. I think you forecast about $1.5 billion or so this year, which is up a lot from the last couple of years. Can you talk about the end markets that are driving the growth today and that'll drive the growth kind of up towards that $6 billion-$7 billion of inbound level?
Definitely. And we feel very confident with the $6 billion-$7 billion that we stated for 2030, and we stated this back in 2022 as we started to see the early signs of the evolving energy ecosystem changing. And as you look at it, you're always going to have a debate, okay, is there going to be a focus on reducing emissions? The reality is there's a need for a lower carbon economy to be developed, and there's going to be a need for an all-of-the-above strategy to meet the demands. And so we're increasingly seeing a lot of attention on CCUS, and that's really the ability to take the CO2 and then sequester it and utilize it. We've got a range of technologies from a capture perspective as well as from a storage. We understand the subsurface. We have the compression capability.
So CCS, CCUS is going to be a large aspect of that. Then as you go to geothermal, geothermal is increasingly becoming an option as people better understand and also the technology. And depending on the region, geothermal is already extensively used today, but not often spoken about. And we've been in geothermal for a long, long time, obviously, with the aspect of understanding the subsurface and being able to take our steam turbine knowledge and be able to generate the geothermal power extensively in Tuscany. 40% of the power comes from geothermal, and we provide the equipment for that. As you look at hydrogen, and hydrogen is something that is already in place today. It will be part of the fuel mix. Will it be as big as natural gas? Will it be, you know, as big as oil? No, but it will have its place to play.
We're continuing to see advancements in different locations on green hydrogen as well as blue hydrogen. As you look at different applications, again, ammonia is going to be utilized, and that's all part of the mix. As you look at clean integrated power solutions, we have new technologies such as Net Power, which is really a zero-emissions three to 400 MW power generation unit. We see that there's a strong opportunity for multiple sites across the globe to be able to utilize that. Net Power is a standalone company. We're providing the critical equipment of the turbo expander, and that is a significant growth opportunity as we go forward. There are already active discussions with many players. They've already firmed up contracts with Oxy, as well as they're working with the California Resources. We see that as being a prime opportunity as we go forward.
And then emissions management and abatement, the monitoring, the control, the ability to continue to provide the also governance on the reporting. So we play across the board when it comes to new energy and feel very confident that $6 billion-7 billion, when we look at our pipeline of projects, very much in line with what we'd envisaged. And countries are continuing to go forward with trying to create a lower carbon economy.
So, exciting growth opportunities in climate tech. The service business continues to grow. You have some growth initiatives in industrial, which we didn't touch on. As we think about, you know, the inbound for IET, you're forecasting, you know, above $13 billion this year. Do you think that number can continue to grow over time, or do these other initiatives, you know, offset, you know, the potential for some moderation in LNG inbound in the years ahead? How do you think about kind of your inbound trajectory over the next few years in IET?
I'm not going to give you a number because we've just given guidance for 2025. If you look at the cycle we're in, though, this is a positive cycle. And when you look at the duration and longevity of it, it seems to be out a few years, just driven by the energy demand and also the replacement that we're going to need. And so at some stage, there will be ups and downs, like we've seen last year with LNG booms, yet gas infrastructure and some of the onshore offshore actually replaced it. We'll see that continue. Overall, though, being able to maintain and continue to see this as a positive cycle, we feel good about. And so that's, you know, the aim is to get as much installed base as possible as we go forward to then continue to have the services.
And as we go over time, the new energy will obviously continue to develop and also the growth in the industrial areas because our equipment goes into the cement industry, it goes into the steel industry, it goes into other hard-to-abate sectors. And all of that is still yet to come. But from an addressable market perspective, you know, that industrial addressable market is $140 billion for us. And so we've got that opportunity as we continue to invest and also continue to focus on it to continue the strategy that we've laid out as an energy technology company.
Turning to profit margins in IET, a big initiative that Baker Hughes has been to improve those margins. They were about 15% back in 2023. The target is 20% in 2026. Can you talk about the drivers improving the profit margins in IET?
So, and again, this has been a journey. And in 2022, when we said the 20%, we made clear it's just a point in time. It's not the end. And I think we've progressively shown that we're heading towards the 20% for 2026, and that's not where it will stop. And our intent and also what's driving it is, number one, the improved performance operationally. As you look at the productivity being yielded from the volume that's coming in, and we've got a number of years of large volume output, and that's yielding productivity, improved performance within the plants and the manufacturing. And that's been driven by a lot of the Kaizen efforts by the team and also the work that they've been doing on simplification. That's a key factor.
You've got the services, which, again, as you go through the cycle, start to benefit from the increased installed base and also the upgrades coming back, which took a lull. And so we see positive momentum there. If you look at the aspect of the industrial businesses getting back to their normal margin rates, post the pandemic, they were still very good gross margin, but they just hadn't had the volume coming through, or we had issues with supply chain. We had multiple backlogs and arrears that we needed to clear. They're clearing those now and actually getting back to those historical EBITDA rates, which are very good for the IET business. And then as we look at research and development, some of the technology investments, we had some large chunks that we invested in, and that starts to ease.
As we're growing, it starts to be less of a percentage. I'd say finally, the simplification overall with regards to the way the business is run. That's something we've led across Baker Hughes with focusing on, you know, clear line of sight, clear accountability, single-point decision-making so that you don't have unnecessary duplication across the system. Those are the areas that, you know, give us confidence to get to the 20%, which we have clear line of sight to, as well as then continue to go north of 20% as we go to 27%-28%.
I want to turn to the oil services segment just for a couple of minutes. You know, we received your guidance for the year, but how do you see, you know, growth in that segment over the next couple of years? Is it likely flattish? Are there pockets of growth that you can exploit?
So a lot of focus has been on IET, and I just want to make sure if anybody's listening from the OFSE side, they know that we care about both sides because they are intrinsically linked. And if we look at Oil field Services and Equipment, if you look at the outlook, again, we see demand continuing to be positive. And if you look at from an oil and the number of barrels of oil being consumed, given our efficiencies and also given the focus and capital discipline from an activity perspective, we see that being subdued. And again, we mentioned that in the guidance that we gave. As we go forward, we see growth, though, for our Baker Hughes OFSE segment. And that's because of the area that we've had the focus on, which is on Mature Asset Solutions.
I think there is a view that is now being appreciated and understood that we have a lot still to recover from existing areas. If you look at the world's production, about 70% is made from mature assets. A mature asset means that it's had about 50% of its molecule recovered or it's over 25 years old. We have the chemicals, the artificial lift. We have the integrated solutions to be able to make those fields more productive, more efficient, and gain more as we go forward. That's been a key focus by the team, as well as then integrating digital with Leucipa, which is, again, being able to provide optimization in production. Recently, I gave an example of a 40% increase in production of an operator by us integrating the capabilities we had in Production Solutions with Leucipa.
We're going to see more of that. Given that we're weighted more towards the production side, we're less cyclical than maybe some of the others. Greenfields will take place, and there are some great greenfields that are moving forward, and on the offshore side in particular, we're well positioned with our Oil field Equipment side, as well as a capability we have in the Well Construction and some of the drilling, so I see us, again, similar to what I said for IET, the 20% EBITDA that was mentioned for 2025, which we're well on track for, is a point in time. It's not the end destination. As we continue to drive the simplification of the business, continue to drive many of the actions that are enterprise-wide, we're going to see that margin rate continue to increase as well.
And you beat me to the punch. I wanted to ask about, you know, the drivers behind that 20% margin, which you should achieve this year at IET. You know, there's similarities in some of the initiatives around internal efficiency and optimization. But what else, you know, has been driving those margins higher and what could drive, you know, margins to the next level?
We've gone through a number of years of, I would say, changes within the Oil field Services and Equipment business. A lot of hard work by the team on restructuring, exiting areas that didn't make sense for us, prioritizing areas where we had technology, and a lot of self-help. I'd say a lot of what's been achieved has been self-help, and now we're also going to benefit from the focus that we've had on the new technology areas, the mature asset basins that are attractive for us, and going back also on some of the commercial offensives with growth, profitable growth being a priority. I think just the say-do, can-do attitude of the team has changed, and that self-help is going to continue, but it's also going to be complemented with some of the enterprise capabilities that we have.
When I look at, you know, Mature Asset Solutions, we have capabilities around being able to help the compression in the field by taking some of the IET capability. We can also provide power on the field because of the IET capabilities. Likewise, when we think of CCUS, we can provide the subsurface knowledge to the IET equipment that's required. So there's a lot of complementary aspects at an enterprise level of new growing areas, which we're targeting, and we're not staying away from the operational efficiency drive. The team's definitely viewing 2025 as an important point in time at the 20% EBITDA. However, as I said before, it's not the endpoint. It's merely a point on the destination to continuing to grow EBITDA rates.
Great. I want to conclude with a couple of corporate questions. You got into a cash conversion rate from EBITDA of about 45%-50% this year. Now, further margin improvement, you know, should continue to push that figure higher. What other initiatives are you undertaking to improve that cash conversion rate?
We have a number of priorities that we drive across the company, and there are two specifically that are focused on, I would say, continuing to generate cash. One is clearly on the operational footprint that we have and the effectiveness of our shared services, the effectiveness of our best value country initiatives, and we've got a great team that's looking at all of those so as to make sure that we're creative in our margin as we look at our supply chain and also our rooftops, as well as some of the more day-to-day operational aspects, and then we have an aspect of free cash flow initiative, and that's really going back to some of the working capital disciplines, going back to the areas of billing, going back to the areas of collections, going back to the areas of inventory management.
And all of these will yield improvements in our conversion rates. So we've got dedicated teams looking at that, not just for, you know, one area, but across the company. And as we go through those, you'll see the benefits yielding by higher conversion rates.
Great, and maybe we'll just end with your targets for cash return to shareholders.
60-80.
Very good. Look, I think we're running up on time here. But Lorenzo, I want to thank you very much for taking the time. A number of growth opportunities, you know, on the horizon for Baker Hughes and a number of margin improvement initiatives being undertaken by the company today. So I thank you very much for taking the time to discuss all that with us here today.
Scott, thank you very much, and thanks for.