TopBuild Corp. (BLD)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

May 4, 2023

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the TopBuild's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Release. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Tabitha Zane, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you, Ms. Zane. You may begin.

Tabitha Zane
VP of Investor Relations, TopBuild

Thank you. Good morning. On the call today are Robert Buck, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Robert Kuhns, Chief Financial Officer. We have posted senior management's formal remarks and a PowerPoint presentation that summarizes our comments on our website at topbuild.com. Many of our remarks will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in this morning's press release, as well as in the company's filings with the SEC. The company assumes no obligation to update or supplement forward-looking statements that become untrue because of subsequent events. Please note that some of the financial measures to be discussed on this call will be on a non-GAAP basis. The non-GAAP measures are not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP.

We have provided a reconciliation of these financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures in a table included in today's press release and in our first quarter presentation, which can also be found on our website. I will now turn the call over to Robert Buck.

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. We are pleased to report that 2023 is off to a good start with a solid first quarter performance. Revenue increased 8.2%, and our Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 150 basis points to 18.8%. Both business segments, installation and Specialty Distribution, also expanded their adjusted operating and EBITDA margins. Our consistently strong performance quarter after quarter is a direct result of the hard work of our operations and branch support teams, the insight and command we have into all facets of our business, our focus on operational efficiency and excellence, our uniquely advantaged business model with both installation and Specialty Distribution, our diversified end markets, residential, commercial, and industrial, our strong partnerships with our suppliers and customers, and our strategic approach to acquisitions and their integration onto our advanced ERP platform.

Our installation business is benefiting from the large backlog of single and multi-family homes under construction, and we are encouraged that our builder customers continue to see improvements in terms of buyer interest. This supports our steadfast conviction that the long-term fundamentals of the housing industry are strong, supported by a limited supply of both new and existing homes and favorable demographic trends. Our installation business is also benefiting from an increase in light commercial work. We've mentioned before that light commercial and residential installation are very similar, and most of our branches are able to perform either type of project. Our heavy commercial branches are also involved in numerous large and long-running projects, including the Salt Lake City Airport expansion, the new Microsoft and YouTube corporate centers, and the new Intuit Dome, just to name a few.

To support and encourage both light and heavy commercial growth initiatives, we've been providing additional resources and tools for our salespeople and branch managers to help them better identify commercial opportunities and secure this work. One of these is our proprietary Lead App tool showcased at our Investor Day last May. This cloud-based data hub identifies and aggregates commercial construction project leads, which are then pushed out to our sales force, dramatically improving bid opportunities, sales productivity, and win rates. Direct labor remains tight within the construction industry, but is a continued strength for TopBuild. We remain focused on enhancing labor and sales productivity through the sharing of best practices, the use of proprietary technology tools, and a highly efficient branch management process, all of which drive better financial results.

In addition, our advanced ERP system gives us the ability to monitor productivity in real time and share labor among our branches. This is a major differentiator and gives us a competitive advantage. Looking at our Specialty Distribution business, overall sales increased 2.7%. Residential distribution volume declined as our smaller contractor customers brought inventory levels down and as the mix of units under construction shifted to multifamily. Offsetting the decline in residential distribution volume and demonstrating the strength of our diversified business model was a solid 8.7% increase in sales from our commercial and industrial channels. Our Specialty Distribution teams are supporting a number of major industrial manufacturing projects, including the Tesla Gigafactory in Austin and the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Center in Phoenix. Other long-running projects include alternative fuel facilities for Marathon and Phillips 66.

Looking ahead, we expect to continue to support these large industrial and commercial projects. Our customer base recognizes that we are the leading supplier of mechanical insulation in North America. Our 37 fabrication facilities across North America enable us to customize and engineer any type of product solutions our customers require. In addition, with only 10% market share of this very fragmented $5.5 billion market, we see great opportunities for growth, both organically and through acquisitions. We have not seen an impact on demand in either the commercial or industrial markets following the recent turmoil in the banking industry. On the commercial insulation side, our backlog remains robust and we are already bidding projects into late 2024 and early 2025. For Specialty Distribution, we see a lot of major projects being planned across several diverse industries, fueling the demand for mechanical insulation.

Maintenance and repair work on many commercial and industrial sites is also being scheduled. This recurring revenue stream should serve as a continued stabilizing revenue driver for our Specialty Distribution business. We remain very optimistic about the opportunities for growth in both the commercial and industrial end markets. Turning to fiberglass, most of you know there was an industry cost increase in December for both batts and loose fill, which did have some traction. Supply is expected to remain tight as we expect a number of production lines to be bought down for maintenance during the year. Looking ahead, acquisitions remain our one capital allocation priority and will continue to be a key component of our growth strategy and important additions to our overall momentum of our business.

We completed one acquisition in the first quarter, SRI Holdings, which is expected to contribute approximately $62 million of annual revenue. SRI is a great addition to our installation segment, with a strong presence in Georgia, Florida, Ohio, and Michigan. As we do with all acquisitions, upon close, our integration team immediately works to share best practices to streamline processes and procedures, incorporate the newly acquired company onto our supply chain, leverage technology and best practices to improve labor and sales productivity, eliminate back office and operational redundancies, optimize fleet and logistics, and locally empower great talent. Our growth targets are high quality, installation-focused companies, both installers and specialty distributors, that will enhance our scale, expand our customer base, and generate strong returns for our shareholders. We have a robust pipeline of prospects and expect to close some of these deals this year.

In recent meetings, a number of you have asked if we have a target in terms of the mix of our business over the long term. The answer, quite simply, is no. We see opportunities to expand our presence both organically and through acquisitions in all three end markets we serve, residential, commercial, and industrial. Combined, they represent a total addressable market for installation of over $17 and a half billion, of which we have a combined 20% share. Plenty of white space in which to expand. Before turning the call over to Rob, I want to emphasize that driving operational excellence and great execution throughout our organization has been and remains one of our most important areas of focus, and is a key component of our 940 basis points of Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion since first quarter 2018.

We locally empower our 400+ business leaders to run their branches as distinct operations with full P&L responsibility. Branch leaders build their teams to include local management, sales, and at our installation branches, direct labor. At the corporate level, operational efficiencies are achieved across our entire network by leveraging supply chain efficiencies, sharing best practices, and streamlining back office processes and procedures. Our drive to improve culture is inherent in everything we do at TopBuild. Rob?

Robert Kuhns
CFO, TopBuild

Thanks, Robert. Good morning, everyone. As Robert noted, our team continues to execute at a high level, generating strong results. The strength of our strategically advantaged model was evident as we grew sales and expanded Adjusted EBITDA margins at both installation and Specialty Distribution. In addition, we saw sales growth across all of our diversified end markets. Moving to the financials, I'll start with an overview of our first quarter results, update you on our balance sheet, and review our 2023 outlook. First quarter net sales increased 8.2% to $1.3 billion, with sales from our installation segment increasing 13.4% to $767.1 million, and sales from Specialty Distribution increasing 2.7% to $558.4 million. Installation sales were driven by strong volume growth and higher selling prices.

Specialty Distribution sales were driven by higher selling prices, offset by a decline in residential volume, which Robert discussed earlier. Our adjusted gross margin for the first quarter was 29.3%, a 100 basis point expansion. This was driven by operational efficiencies, fixed cost leverage, and our continued success in managing inflation. First quarter Adjusted EBITDA increased 18.1% to $238.3 million, and our Adjusted EBITDA margin was 18.8%, a 150 basis point improvement compared to first quarter 2022. First quarter incremental EBITDA margin was 38% and 43% on a same branch basis. First quarter Adjusted EBITDA margin for our installation segment was 21.4% and 15.8% for our Specialty Distribution segment, an improvement of 230 basis points and 20 basis points respectively.

Interest expense increased from $12 million to $18 million in the first quarter, primarily as a result of higher variable interest rates. Our current average cost of debt is approximately 4.67%, with approximately 60% fixed and 40% variable rates, with no upcoming maturities until 2026. First quarter adjustments to net income were $3.7 million and were related to acquisition and integration costs. First quarter Adjusted earnings per share were $4.36, a 25% increase from prior year. Moving to our balance sheet and cash flows. First quarter operating cash flow was $169.8 million compared to $89.5 million in the prior year. This was driven by an 18.4% increase in net income and improvements in working capital.

Working capital was 15.6% in the quarter. As I've mentioned on previous calls, we are targeting a range of 12%-14% of sales by the end of this year. CapEx in the quarter was $15.6 million, 1.2% of revenue and slightly below our long-term guidance. We did not repurchase any shares in the quarter. As Robert mentioned, acquisitions remain our number one capital allocation priority. We are working a robust pipeline of prospects. There were no significant changes to our debt structure. Our outstanding short-term and long-term debt balances remained at just under $1.5 billion. We ended the first quarter with net debt leverage of 1.15 x trailing twelve months Adjusted EBITDA.

Total liquidity on March 31, 2023 was $766.1 million, including cash of $333.8 million, and an accessible revolver of $432.3 million. Moving to annual guidance, we are reaffirming our outlook for 2023 provided on our fourth quarter call on February 23. As a reminder, total sales are expected to be between $4.7 billion and $4.9 billion, and Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $820 million-$910 million. We continue to expect that our residential sales will decline mid to upper single digits and single-family activity to be slower the back half of the year. Our expectation for our commercial and industrial end markets is for sales to expand by low to mid single digits.

This outlook does not include any potential acquisitions or share repurchases. We believe the long-term fundamentals of the housing industry are solid, and we are pleased to have heard the recent optimism expressed by many of the public builders. We are also bullish on the long-term opportunities in the commercial and industrial end markets. Our leadership team, technology tools, and flexible cost structure will ensure that TopBuild will continue to outperform in any environment. Robert?

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

We see many opportunities in the year ahead to demonstrate the unique advantages of our operating model and take advantage of our multiple avenues for growth. Our focus on continuous improvement in all areas of our company enables us to maximize opportunities at every point in the cycle. Both installation and Specialty Distribution are performing well, and our advanced ERP system gives us great control and real-time insight into the day-to-day performance of each of our 400+ branches. Finally, in our continuing drive to be the employer of choice in our industry, TopBuild participated in the national Great Place to Work survey and evaluation, the gold standard of company rankings. We are proud and excited to report that based on direct employee feedback, the entire TopBuild organization is recognized as a Great Place to Work organization.

The direct feedback and ratings from our TopBuild employees speaks to our commitment to fostering a diverse and inclusive workforce where everyone has the opportunity to realize their full potential. Being recognized as a Great Place to Work company is a positive endorsement of the TopBuild culture, which we strive to strengthen every day. I thank all of my TopBuild teammates for their hard work and dedication. Your continued focus on working safely to deliver value, quality, and service to our customers every day is the key to our continued growth and success. Operator, we are now ready for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please while we pull for questions. Thank you. Our first question comes from Joe Ahlersmeyer, sorry, with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Joe Ahlersmeyer
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Hi, this is Joe Ahlersmeyer from Deutsche Bank. Good morning, and congrats on the good results in the quarter.

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

Thanks, Joe.

Joe Ahlersmeyer
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Maybe if you could start just by talking about your decision not to raise the guidance here, given the strong quarter and with broader industry data and commentary sort of supportive of a stabilization. Maybe specifically, could you offer some context to the expectation for slower single-family in the back half, whether that be a specific single-family back half revenue outlook or a single-family starts or completions expectation?

Robert Kuhns
CFO, TopBuild

Yeah. Joe, this is Rob. I'd tell you, Q1 came in right about where we expected from what we told you 10 weeks ago when we got together. You know, the back half of the year, still a lot of uncertainty out there, so we didn't feel a need to really adjust the guide there. You know, we're cautiously optimistic given what we're hearing from the builders, a lot of optimism out there.

You know, we're realistic too, knowing that, you know, if you look at starts for single family over the last, you know, last two quarters, it's significantly below where completions have been running. That's gonna work its way through the system. You know, any meaningful uptick in starts from here will be upside to the forecast we have out there. I'll just remind you that, you know, historically, as a, as a management team, we lean to the conservative side. Like I said, we're cautiously optimistic about the future.

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

Yeah. Joe, this is Robert. Just to add on to that, I mean, I think the team in the field is doing a really nice job relative to the other opportunities as well, like the light commercial business, what's happening on the commercial and industrial side. To Rob's point, what we're seeing and hearing from builders, we're seeing more specs coming out of the ground as well. We think there's a lot of positive signs out there. To Rob's point, that's only gonna be upside to our guidance.

Joe Ahlersmeyer
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

All right. Understood. Very encouraging. Maybe could you just talk about any considerations with multifamily the rest of the year? I think there had been some discussion about the product mix requiring more loose fill. Could you maybe just discuss the supply, demand, and pricing specifically for loose fill, maybe relative to the batts, or any other multifamily considerations we should be aware of?

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

Yes, I think, this is Robert again. I think, given the multifamily backlog, you know, we definitely expect that to carry through 2023, definitely into 2024 as well. You know, we're in great shape from a product perspective relative to what's required for loose fill, for multifamily construction, which does require more loose fill insulation. Yeah, we're in great shape from that perspective. You know, one thing that we have, you know, great insight into is the bidding and the backlogs as well as the bidding rates of what the teams in the field are doing. We feel really good about the multifamily work in the back half and what we've got bid as well as, you know, we think some good share gain that we captured in that piece of the business.

Joe Ahlersmeyer
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

All right. Thanks. Appreciate it.

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mike Rehaut with JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

Mike Rehaut
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, JPMorgan

Thanks. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my questions. First, I just wanted to hit, I guess, driving down a little bit more on the residential side, and my second question will be more on the industrial mechanical side. You know, on the residential, you know, is there a way to think about, you know, what your guidance reflects in terms of an outlook for starts for the year? As you, Rob, referred, you know, so far, first quarter, you know, single family starts around 840, which is, you know, well below a year ago. Is there some type of implicit expectation for starts as the year progresses? Y ou know, if, for argument's sake, starts, let's say, really accelerate in the second quarter, would that be more of a third or a fourth quarter event for you guys in terms of upside?

Robert Kuhns
CFO, TopBuild

Yeah. Mike, this is Rob. I mean, I think it's really important as we look at the data to break it down between single family and multifamily, right? Multifamily starts remain strong. The backlog's very strong there. We had a great quarter for multifamily. We've been outbidding multifamily, you know, getting ready for the slowdown we've seen coming on the single family side. Really happy with the field's work on that side of things. We expect that backlog to last us, you know, through the remainder of this year. On the single family side, like I mentioned earlier, I mean, the starts data is, it's obvious here, the last couple quarters, starts are running about 24% below where completions were.

We're, like I said, cautiously optimistic given what we're hearing from the builders, you know, more spec homes, potentially more starts. You know, an increase in starts from where we are today would be upside to what we have in our forecast right now.

Mike Rehaut
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, JPMorgan

Just to be clear, before I hit my second question, what does your forecast reflect? Does it reflect starts remaining at current levels for the rest of the year or some type of modest improvement? Any color there?

Robert Kuhns
CFO, TopBuild

Yeah, I'd say it's flattish from where we are today. I mean, you know, it could be modestly up or down, you know, with, you know, given the range we have out there. Like I said, any meaningful movement in either direction is gonna be upside or downside to what we have out there.

Mike Rehaut
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay, great. Secondly, on the commercial side or commercial mechanical, you know, you referenced, you know, good, you know, bidding activity, and involvement in, you know, various projects into 2024. How does that translate in terms of thinking about 2024 versus 2023? Would you expect, you know, given the current trends, would you expect any level of growth or, you know, any color there would be helpful as well.

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

Yeah. Mike, Robert. You know, what I would say, and you can translate this as the, how the, you know, future looks, there's just a lot of, you know, pent-up work out there on the industrial mechanical side. If you think about, as we talked about, 2021, 2022, that was a little slower to recover and, you know, now we're seeing those projects come both, you know, new projects, if I think about, you know, industrial onshoring, some things in the food and beverage space. We talked about some big projects on the, you know, chemical side earlier. Also on the MRO side, which is that recurring revenue, which is what we love about this business. There's a lot of work, MRO work that's out there scheduled. We see that coming here in 2023 going into 2024.

You know, given, you know, why we're such a big player there and why we benefit so much there is that, you know, our fabrication capabilities, how we engineer those products really for refineries or any other unique situation really allows us to capitalize on that MRO and that recurring revenue. Yeah, we have a, you can tell from my comments, a very positive outlook, in that industrial mechanical side of the business for those reasons.

Mike Rehaut
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay. Thank you.

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Adam Baumgarten with Zelman. Please proceed with your question.

Adam Baumgarten
Equity Research Analyst, Zelman & Associates

Hey, good morning, guys. Just curious what you're seeing from a pricing perspective in the residential business. Has there been any kind of competition sprouting up that's, you know, kind of outside of the norm?

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

Yeah. Adam, this is Robert. Look, given the tightness of, you know, continued tightness of material and, you know, labor from that perspective, I think things have been pretty steady relative to that. I think also, you know, given where we are in the, in the chain there from a construction cycle, I think the builders realize that value as well. I'd say nothing out of the ordinary from that perspective. I think, you know, if you look at our results, you can tell our field teams have done a great job of, you know, walking that balance of volume and working to get price and stuff as well, again, for the value that we're bringing to the customer.

Adam Baumgarten
Equity Research Analyst, Zelman & Associates

Okay. Got it. Yeah, that's good to hear. I guess just also just on the prospect of additional price increases on the fiberglass side, how are you guys thinking about that for the balance of the year?

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

Yeah. As we said previously, you know, we expected the inflation to, you know, moderate this year. I think you know, there's still some inflation there. I think, you know, you also saw some of the previous results from, you know, the other public fiberglass manufacturers. They talked about, price in the first quarter. We expected that to actually stabilize, but I think it'll all depend on the demand curve, what starts to look like the back half of the year. I think that could drive any future action from the cost increase perspective.

Adam Baumgarten
Equity Research Analyst, Zelman & Associates

Okay. Got it. Thanks.

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Keith Hughes with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Keith Hughes
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Truist Securities

Thank you. You had talked in the prepared comments about commercial industrial being up low to mid-single digits. I believe you're talking about the year here. Is there any differentiation between those two in growth rates? Is that the same as the business you talked about being up 8% in the first quarter?

Robert Kuhns
CFO, TopBuild

Yeah. Keith, this is Rob. Yeah, you're correct that when we talk about it being up low to mid-single digits, that's what's baked into our guidance. We obviously exceeded that a little bit in the first quarter, up 8.2% overall for the company on the commercial industrial front, which was strong on both the install business and on the Specialty Distribution business. I think it really, you know, a testament to what we've been talking about the strength of our diversified model and diversified end markets. You know, this is gonna be a year where we can really show that with, you know, the commercial and industrial side of the business growing.

You know, we're optimistic for the back half, but we're still sticking with that, you know, low to mid-single-digit growth for the year, but obviously had a really great first quarter. As far as, you know, segregating between the two, commercial and industrial, I'd say there wasn't a meaningful difference between the two in the quarter or in our outlook.

Keith Hughes
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Truist Securities

Okay. One other question on that. The numbers you were referring to, does that include pricing? If so, roughly how much?

Robert Kuhns
CFO, TopBuild

It includes price, but we don't break price down between residential and commercial. Definitely, there's more price flowing through on the residential side, given the higher fiberglass content on that side of things. We don't have the split of that.

Keith Hughes
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Truist Securities

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Phil Ng with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Phil Ng
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Jefferies

Hey, guys. Congrats on another strong quarter. Rob, I'd really appreciate some of the color around some of these bigger projects that you highlighted earlier, onshoring, pet chem, all that good stuff. Certainly, there's some concerns about tighter lending conditions. I wouldn't imagine you would have much impact this year. Looking out to 2024 and beyond, curious what you're seeing on the bidding activity. Can you kinda help size up, you know, big versus small? I would imagine some of your bigger projects, bigger customers wouldn't have much problem getting capital, but maybe the smaller guys and your ability to kinda move stuff around in terms of labor, if one part of the segment was a little stronger versus the other. Sorry, a lot to unpack there.

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

No, thanks, Phil. You know, you're right relative to, you know, our bill, our start to end, their ability to move things around if we do see those fluctuations in, you know, certain parts of the country. If you think about the projects, you think about some of the large projects that I spoke to, I mean, first let me go on the MRO side, the recurring piece. You know, a lot of that is, you know, things that are planned well in the future, funded well in the future, and, you know, some of those are actually required type of MRO that has to happen if you think about refineries and even food and beverage. That's part of the positive of that MRO business.

Relative to new projects, you know, those large projects, and if you think about where our work comes in those projects, most of those projects are already out of the ground. Those are funded. That's one reason we use that term long-running projects, because those go well into 24, into 25 even, relative to the run rate of those projects. You know, we haven't seen the impact. I think, given the mix of business that we have there and the multiple avenues, I think overall we feel good. And really, even if you think about, you know, segments within commercial, industrial, we're not really oversaturated in one area. I mean, we're everything from, you know, the onshoring to food and beverage to the industrial, and you could think, you know, semiconductor space, EV, liquid natural gas.

You know, we're kind of across the gamut there. A lot of those are really required infrastructure that's coming. We feel good about it. We'll watch it constantly, obviously, like everyone else is. No signs of it here, thus far. Also no signs in talking with our bigger customers.

Phil Ng
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Jefferies

That's great color, Robert. Then from a IRA Act standpoint, I believe there's some tax credits for the average homeowner and potentially even the builders. Can you kind of expand on those benefits and do you expect any uplift from that, whether it's this year or going to 2024?

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

I mean, if you think about the homeowners, so definitely from a energy efficiency and some of the potentially rebates there, you know, definitely as people look to maybe re-insulate, if you will, to drive some energy efficiency or some rebates, you know, we'll get after that business on our Specialty Distribution side. You know, if you think about that smaller contractor that may be doing our work, doing that work, that's our, definitely our primary customer on the, on the Specialty Distribution side, especially residential. You know, if you think about some of the other infrastructure piece, you know, definitely, I mentioned the Salt Lake City Airport as an example. Those type of infrastructure projects, that'll definitely benefit us some on the industrial commercial side. Hard to, you know, kind of quantify that.

Given, again, we play across that entire space, we'd expect to see some nice tailwind from that, as those bills come into play, both, again, commercial and industrial.

Phil Ng
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Jefferies

Okay, super. Great job in retooling the portfolio to kinda tap into, some of these growth avenues. Thanks a lot.

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

Yeah. Thank you, Phil.

Robert Kuhns
CFO, TopBuild

Thanks, Phil.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

Stephen Kim
Senior Managing Director and Head of the Housing Research Team, Evercore ISI

Thanks very much, guys. Appreciate all the help and the, and the guidance. Congrats on the quarter. You made an interesting comment near the beginning. I think you said that 1Q, when you were talking about the residential, well, your overall market, or your overall sales, I think you said 1Q came in roughly in line with what you expected. clearly in the residential side of the business, the 1Q sales environment, and therefore planning for 2Q by home builders and so forth has, you know, pretty greatly exceeded the industry's expectations. I just wanna confirm that you saw that, too. You see that and you hear that as well.

In fact, kind of as a follow on to that, one of the things that we're anticipating is that you might see a little bit more market share shifting to the larger builders because they may have the balance sheets and the open lines of credit to be able to do more of the spec building, which I think you mentioned, versus small privates that may have a little bit of difficult time, you know, increasing their spec activity, you know, given the regional bank stress. I guess I'm wondering, is it reasonable to assume that if you see this market share shift, that that might lead to a slightly lower incremental margin in the residential install side of the business later this year?

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

Yeah. I'll start off, Stephen, this is Robert on that and try to hit it, and I'm sure Rob will add on some comments as well. I think on your large production builder comment, I think you're exactly right. I mean, what we're seeing and obviously what the builders are saying around the spec home piece and, you know, having the balance sheet to support that and seeing those come out of the ground. Yeah, I think you're absolutely right about that. They'll get ahead of the curve here as things stabilize, and that'll allow for some share gain piece of it.

I think given, you know, the material situation, the labor situation, our relationships with those production builders, you know, we're not too concerned from the margin perspective if that shift happens or that share shift happens with the production builders. No concern from that perspective. Back to your Q1 comment, and then I'll hand it over to Rob if he's got any add-ons. I think whenever we say, you know, in line, you know, we saw what happened to single family. It was pretty flat. Multifamily was up, really, really healthy given what our teams in the field have done, exactly what we expected. Talked about distribution volumes, commercial, industrial, strong, what we expected. A little bit down on the residential distribution side, given, you know, some lowering of inventories by the smaller contractors as well as that shift in multifamily.

Whenever we talk about came in as we thought, those were some of the dynamics we thought would play out in the quarter, and they did.

Robert Kuhns
CFO, TopBuild

Yeah. Yeah. Stephen, I'd just add, I mean, I think, you know, when we made that comment, we're talking in total, right, we're about where we expected. I'd say on the install side, a little better from a volume perspective. You know, the team did a great job getting out there, getting a lot of multifamily work. Like we mentioned in the prepared remarks, you know, residential volume on the Specialty Distribution side down slightly. You know, we saw, you know, people taking inventory out, you know, anticipating the slowdown, as well as with the shift in multifamily mix, some of those smaller contractors that go for residential products to Specialty Distribution, you know, had a little bit less share in the quarter. Those are the two things. Overall, like I said, you know, right or right in line with our expectations for the quarter.

Stephen Kim
Senior Managing Director and Head of the Housing Research Team, Evercore ISI

If I could sort of follow up on that, your comments there on the residential side within Specialty Distribution. I think you said that, Well, first of all, would it be right to guess that the residential side of the business within Spec Distribution was down maybe about 4%? If that's, you know, wrong, if you could correct me, that would be great. But then you, I think attributed, you know, resi being weaker than the commercial industrial due to, I think, your smaller customers, basically other small installers and whatnot, reducing inventory. I'm wondering, are those inventories, in your estimation, right-sized from a level that was too high? Or maybe given what we've seen here in 1Q sales for homes, could we be maybe too low now?

You said also multifamily mix impacted it. Could you talk a little bit about why and how multifamily, the mix is impacted negatively? What is it about the multifam versus the single fam that particularly affects the sales?

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

Yeah. Stephen, this is Robert. I'll try to get all those answered here. Relative to the, you know, talking about the Specialty Distribution residential. Yeah, low single digits, which by the way, given if you look around the industry and stuff, we think execution in the field on that side of the business was fabulous. The team did a great job in the other areas, other products, accessory products, some of that. We think fabulous results from how the team handled that shift. You know, on the multifamily side, yeah, the smaller contractors which we get after on that residential Specialty Distribution side, they're probably participating less in that multifamily work. They're more, you know, maybe the custom builder, the smaller regional builder, the repair remodel type work.

That's what that, you know, that specific kind of smaller contractor will be going after. If you think about the multifamily, right? You got, and I also kind of speak as to where we picked up share there on the install side. If you think about that multifamily side, you know, major fluctuations in the amount of material needed, the amount of labor needed, you know, in a week's timeframe or something like that. That's it's harder to obviously react to that and that's why we're able to move. Whenever we talk about moving equipment, material, labor around, that plays well for us on the multifamily.

I'm sure as you've seen, there's a lot of that multifamily work today, coming up, but it also has, you know, a lot of it has this light commercial work with it where the first floor is, you know, could be, you know, retail and then you got the multifamily above it. With the fact of how we're planning that light commercial and multifamily, it's allowed us to pick up some nice projects due to that, you know, ability we have across multiple projects, if you will.

Stephen Kim
Senior Managing Director and Head of the Housing Research Team, Evercore ISI

Got it. Thank you so much. That's very helpful.

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Carl Reichardt with BTIG. Please proceed with your question.

Carl Reichardt
Managing Director and Partner, BTIG

Thanks. Morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. Robert, you talked about the TAM for the business overall being $17.5 billion. What percentage of that do you think is the MRO recurring revenue side?

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

Yes. As we think about it, and you've probably seen what we published around that commercial industrial space, we call that opportunity, I'd say a, you know, call it $5.5, you know, call it $6 billion type of total addressable market. I'd say if you look at, you know, look at our business and stuff, the MRO is about, you know, 50% on the industrial side. You know, and we've probably done a really good job getting our fabrication capabilities of getting after that work. I'd say is it may be a little less than 50% of the total TAM? I think it probably is. Can't give you the exact number. I just know how we're kind of oriented towards that and, you know, how we've, given our capabilities fabrication, we've tried to, you know, make sure and get after that opportunity and gain share in that space.

Carl Reichardt
Managing Director and Partner, BTIG

Okay. Thanks for that. Rob, you talked about the working capital, as a percentage sales target going down to 12%-14%. What are the key drivers to get that number down? I recognize there's probably some seasonality in there. As you look beyond 2023, where do you think that number ultimately can go? What would be your target? Thanks.

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

Yep.

Robert Kuhns
CFO, TopBuild

Yeah. I would say our long-term target is still in that 12%-14% range. I think the opportunity right now lies a little bit on the A/R side, but also on the inventory side. You know, with things, you know, potentially slowing down here the back half of the year, you know, definitely an opportunity to squeeze some of that working capital out and generate strong free cash flow. Is one of the great stories of our first quarter was our free cash flow. We generated $154 million of free cash flow, up 117% for the year. For the full year, with the numbers we have out there, we should be north of $600 million of free cash flow.

We feel really good about that, and we think 12%-14%. We'll probably be closer to the high end of that as we close out this year, but long term, you know, towards the middle of that.

Carl Reichardt
Managing Director and Partner, BTIG

Great. I appreciate the color. Thanks a lot. Okay.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to President and CEO Robert Buck for closing comments.

Robert Buck
President and CEO, TopBuild

Thank you for joining us this morning. We look forward to reporting Q2 results in early August.

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

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