Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2023

Apr 27, 2023

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Beazer Homes Earnings Conference Call for the Q2 ended March 31st, 2023. Today's call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on the company's website later today. In addition, PowerPoint slides intended to accompany this call are available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.beazer.com. At this point, I will turn the call over to David Goldberg, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

David Goldberg
SVP and CFO, Beazer Homes USA

Thank you. Welcome to the Beazer Homes conference call discussing our results for the Q2 of fiscal 2023. Before we begin, you should be aware that during this call we will be making forward-looking statements. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors described in our SEC filings, which may cause actual results to differ materially from our projections. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date this statement is made. We do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. New factors emerge from time to time. It is simply not possible to predict all such factors. Joining me is Allan Merrill, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

On our call today, Allan will discuss highlights from our Q2 , the current environment for new home sales, and an update on our company strategy and the primary goals we have for the future. I'll provide details on our Q2 results, expectations for the Q3 and full year, updates on our cycle time and cost reduction initiatives, and end with a look at our balance sheet and capital allocation priorities. We will conclude with a wrap-up by Allan. After our prepared remarks, we will take questions in the time remaining. I'll now turn the call over to Allan.

Allan Merrill
Chairman, President and CEO, Beazer Homes USA

Thank you, David, thank you for joining us on our call this afternoon. Our team delivered strong operational performance in the Q2 , which allowed us to exceed the expectations we outlined in January. On sales, we generated a pace of 3.2 homes per community per month as a strong start to the spring selling season enabled us to more than double the pace we saw in the Q1 . On profitability, adjusted EBITDA was over $62 million, with better than expected operating margins and closings lifting results. We also celebrated an important balance sheet milestone. For the first time since 2005, the dollar value of our total shareholders' equity exceeded our outstanding debt at the end of the quarter, with book value now in excess of $32 per share.

During the Q2 , we were also pleased to be recognized for the homes we deliver and the culture we have created among customers and employees. For the eighth straight year, we received the Sustained Excellence Award from the U.S. Department of Energy and the EPA. This is their highest honor among ENERGY STAR awards granted for delivering homes that exceed their stringent requirements. For the second consecutive year, we were named by Newsweek as one of America's most trustworthy companies, as determined through extensive polling of employees, customers, and investors. For the first time, we were recognized as a 2023 Top Workplaces USA by Energage. These awards speak to the commitment we've made to delivering exceptional homes, building trust with our customers, and becoming an employer of choice. Those are all outcomes that should contribute to growing shareholder value in the years ahead.

Turning to the new home sales environment, the momentum we experienced in January continued through the quarter. In fact, I was a bit surprised by the strength of demand during the quarter, especially because affordability remains quite challenging. While I know our team did a terrific job marketing and selling our homes, there were clearly some other macro factors that helped. First, the economy has weathered the rapid increase in rates better than many feared. Employment remains strong, and wages have continued to grow. With home prices modestly lower and incentives somewhat higher than this time last year, wage gains have contributed to an improvement in affordability. Second, homebuyers seem to be adjusting to higher mortgage rates, particularly as they consider the cost of renting.

They may buy a smaller home or one with fewer design options, but buying a home still represents a way to cap a family's housing costs in an inflationary environment. Third, the supply of existing homes for sale is incredibly constrained because owners with low mortgage rates have little incentive to trade in or trade up. This has led to share gains for new homes compared to existing homes this spring, with no signs of excess inventory in any of our markets. The structural housing shortage in this country is very real. Even as we acknowledge that it is a challenge for many consumers to attain homeownership, we are confident in the durability of demand for well-priced new homes. To that end, we remain committed to our balanced growth strategy.

This strategy is designed to deliver profitable growth from an efficient and less leveraged balance sheet, resulting in returns above our cost of capital over a housing cycle. Of course, doing these things in a competitive environment isn't easy, which is why we created and have embraced three pillars to differentiate our homes and home buying experience. During the Q2 , we commissioned an investor perception study to help us better understand what investors and analysts thought about our strategy and how we could improve our investor communication. We were encouraged that there was broad support for both growing our business and improving our balance sheet, a clear validation of balanced growth. We also heard that we could do a better job describing our longer-term goals. Today we'll outline three multi-year goals that should help investors track our progress.

As it relates to growth, starting in the Q4 , we expect a double-digit annual growth rate in our community count for the next several years, with a target of exceeding 200 active communities by the end of 2026. The growth in our lot position, particularly through options, provides early evidence we're on this path. As it relates to our balance sheet, we will continue to reduce leverage, and we're targeting a net debt to net cap ratio below 30% by the end of 2026. Investors noted the significant progress we've made reducing this ratio in the past several years and should take comfort that we intend to continue this journey. Finally, as it relates to the homes we build, we are the only national homebuilder who is fully committed to the Department of Energy's Zero Energy Ready Home program.

More specifically, in our ESG report, we pledged that by the end of 2025, every home we start will meet this DOE standard. In Q2, 4% of our starts were NetZero Energy Ready, and we expect this to ramp quickly in the years ahead. In fact, we now have NetZero Energy Ready homes under production in 14 of our 16 markets. While there are technical and financial challenges associated with attaining this goal, we are well on our way. The fact is, we are building tomorrow's home today, and we are excited to explain the benefits of our homes to buyers. As the past few years have clearly demonstrated, it is hard to predict market dynamics and even harder to translate those kinds of predictions into precise financial guidance. What's remained constant is our commitment to improving our profitability, our balance sheet, and our returns.

As I've outlined today, we believe we have the strategy that will allow us to make further progress in the years ahead. With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

David Goldberg
SVP and CFO, Beazer Homes USA

Thanks, Allan. For the Q2 of fiscal 2023, we closed 1,063 homes, generating Home-Building Revenue of $542 million with an Average Sales Price of about $510,000. Gross margin, excluding amortized interest, impairments, and abandonments, was 22%. SG&A as a percentage of total revenue was 11.2% for the quarter and below 11% on an LTM basis. Adjusted EBITDA was $62.1 million. Interest amortized as a percentage of home building revenue was 3.2%. GAAP tax expense was $5.1 million for an Effective Tax Rate of 12.8%, reflecting the benefit of energy efficiency tax credits from homes closed in the current quarter and prior years.

As a reminder, broadly speaking, we don't currently pay cash taxes as we continue to utilize our deferred tax assets. Net income was $34.7 million or $1.13 per share. Looking forward to the Q3 , we're providing the following expectations. We anticipate a sales pace approaching three sales per community per month. Average community count is expected to be relatively flat year-over-year. We expect to close around 1,000 homes, reflecting a backlog conversion ratio between 50%-55%, up around 20 points versus the same period last year. Average Sales Price should remain around $510,000. We expect gross margin, excluding interest, to be in a 21%-22% range. SG&A, as a % of revenue, should be relatively flat versus the same quarter last year.

We expect this to lead to adjusted EBITDA above $50 million. Interest amortized as a percentage of home building revenue should be in the low threes, and our Effective Tax Rate should be at or below Q2 levels as we continue to realize the benefit of our energy efficiency tax credits. Finally, we expect diluted earnings per share of approximately $0.90. Last quarter, we outlined our expectation for delivering at least 4,000 homes and generating revenue in excess of $2 billion this fiscal year. The initial strength of the spring selling season underscores our confidence in achieving these targets. With the visibility provided from our backlog, we now expect to earn approximately $4 per share in fiscal 2023, based on an Effective Tax Rate of approximately 14% for the full year.

I'd also like to provide an update on our cycle time and cost reduction initiatives. Over the last two years, supply chain challenges extended our average cycle times by nearly four months. This pushed our starts cutoff date from April back into January. At the beginning of the year, we projected we would be able to recover at least 30 of those days in fiscal 2023. Thanks to a tremendous effort by our field operations teams, we've been able to recapture about 90 days on average. This means that in many of our markets, we will be able to close homes by September that started in April, allowing us to offset some of the sales weakness from the Q1 . We also had success reducing direct construction costs in the Q2 .

We expect to see more meaningful benefits in the Q4 , when the mix of closings will more heavily reflect homes started with these lower costs. On to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with more than $500 million of liquidity. Our net debt to net cap was 42.7%, and our net debt to LTM EBITDA was 2.2 times. Our shareholders' equity now exceeds our total debt, and we have no maturities until March 2025. As we think about capital allocation, we are committed to investing for organic growth and further deleveraging. Delevering will occur through growth in retained earnings and debt repurchases, with the goal of bringing our net debt to net capitalization below 30% by the end of 2026.

With the work we've done over the past several years, we have the flexibility to achieve both of these objectives. We continue to grow both the quantity and quality of our book value. We ended the quarter with a book value per share over $32, up more than $6 from the prior year. Despite near-term challenges, we expect to grow book value and generate returns above our cost of capital through the cycle. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Allan.

Allan Merrill
Chairman, President and CEO, Beazer Homes USA

Thanks again, David. The Q2 reflected strong operational performance in an improving sales and production environment. Despite our ongoing affordability concerns, we did what we said we were going to do and are now well-positioned to have a solidly profitable fiscal year. Looking further out, we remain confident in the durability of demand for new homes and committed to both growth and balance sheet improvements. We believe our three pillars, particularly our leadership in energy efficiency, have created a compelling opportunity for us with homebuyers. With this differentiated value proposition and a dedicated and highly engaged team, I remain confident we have the ingredients to create growing and durable value for shareholders in the years ahead. Today, we provided a roadmap for investors to measure exactly where we're going and how fast we're getting there.

With that, I'll turn the call over to the operator to take us into Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, please press star followed by one. Please ensure your phone is unmuted and record your name clearly when prompted. To withdraw your request, press star two. Again, to ask a question, that is star followed by one. One moment, please, while we wait for questions to come in. Our first question is from Julio Romero with Sidoti and Company. You may go ahead.

Julio Romero
Equity Research Analyst, Sidoti and Company

Thanks. Hey, good afternoon, Allan and David. Maybe to start.

Allan Merrill
Chairman, President and CEO, Beazer Homes USA

Hey.

Julio Romero
Equity Research Analyst, Sidoti and Company

Hey. Could maybe just start on the April trends? Can you speak to that at all? I know there was a point where mortgage rates dipped for a short period and then kind of inflected back upward. I'm just curious if you saw that play out at all in terms of buyer traffic, website clicks, overall activity.

Allan Merrill
Chairman, President and CEO, Beazer Homes USA

Really nothing that drew attention. You know, a given day, a given week, there can be a little bit of volatility, but I have to say that the buyer has been more resilient to, the puts and takes with mortgage rates over the last couple of months, than I expected that they would be. That includes in April.

Julio Romero
Equity Research Analyst, Sidoti and Company

Okay. That's helpful. On your quarterly results, the cancellation rate of 18% is pretty improved from the 37% in the December quarter. Can you maybe speak to how that rate is trending in April, at least directionally?

Allan Merrill
Chairman, President and CEO, Beazer Homes USA

Yeah, I mean, we're not to the end of the month yet, so I really don't have, like, an intra-month number, but there's no pattern that we see that is troubling or concerning. That Q1 was super tough, right? That was buyer concerns were prevalent. There was a big backlog number, and we struggled a little bit, and we talked a lot about it. It's why we provided, you know, and talked about the cancellations as a % of sales and a backlog in that quarter to sort of put it in some context. Things have normalized and we're really not seeing unusual cancellation activities anywhere.

Julio Romero
Equity Research Analyst, Sidoti and Company

Got it. Just last one for me is, you know, very exciting on the multiyear goal announcement, and the rollout here. Just thinking about the capital allocation portion of that, I know last quarter you talked about wanting to maintain financial flexibility. Has market conditions kind of changed that approach in the near term at all, like, in terms of how much financial flexibility you wanna keep in the near term?

David Goldberg
SVP and CFO, Beazer Homes USA

You know, Julio, I wouldn't say that it's changed the amount of flexibility that we have, and we talked about the importance of balancing both growth in the business, organic growth in the business, and reinvestment with debt repurchases. We're definitely gonna remain very focused on flexibility. I guess what has probably changed, there's been some more stability in the market, which helps when you try to underwrite deals, and I think you'll see some growth in the land position in the back half of the year accordingly. Look, there's still a very clear focus on flexibility, maintaining very strong liquidity as we move forward. No change from that perspective.

Julio Romero
Equity Research Analyst, Sidoti and Company

Helpful. I'll hop back into queue. Thanks very much.

Allan Merrill
Chairman, President and CEO, Beazer Homes USA

Thanks, Julio.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Alan Ratner with Zelman & Associates. You may go ahead.

Alan Ratner
Managing Director, Zelman & Associates

Hey, guys. Good evening, I guess now, and great quarter and appreciate the longer-term visibility there in terms of the targets. That's where I wanna start the question. 200 communities, the last time you guys were there was about 13, 14 years ago, obviously a much different time. At that point, you controlled about 30,000 lots, maybe a little bit north of that. I'm just curious, you know, is that kind of the number in mind that we should keep as far as where the lot count needs to go over the next year or two to achieve that target? If so, what does that look like from a cash flow perspective?

I mean, even if you option a good chunk of those lots, I would imagine there's still a decent amount of cash that needs to, you know, be invested to drive that type of growth.

Allan Merrill
Chairman, President and CEO, Beazer Homes USA

I think we feel pretty good about the cash generation in the business and the profitability of the business to be able to do that. You've done this a long time, Alan, so you know it's very difficult as you think about future deals, exactly what size they'll be, what deal structure they'll be. I think your 30,000 number is in the right neighborhood. I wouldn't say I think it's crazy high or crazy low. In terms of the capital, between the profitability that we're generating and frankly, the recycling of the capital that we have in the business, I think we feel very comfortable that we can do both the things that we said.

We can control and own enough land to deliver homes from 200 communities, and through, as David said, both the growth in retained earnings and some selected debt repurchases, we can drive that leverage down below 30%. Yes, we're very focused on the capital side, but I feel very confident that we've got the resources to get there.

Alan Ratner
Managing Director, Zelman & Associates

All right, perfect. Second question on pricing. you know, a few of your competitors have indicated, given the strong spring, they've started to either dial back incentives or even raise base prices. Allan, I know you kind of share our view as far as the affordability challenges right now, and obviously we've also been surprised at how strong the demand has been in spite of that. you know, I'm curious if you could talk a little bit about what you guys are doing on the pricing side right now, and how much runway do you think there is to drive growth if we don't meaningfully, you know, kind of fix the affordability equation, either through lower rates or, you know, significantly higher wages or lower home prices.

Allan Merrill
Chairman, President and CEO, Beazer Homes USA

Gosh, I wish I had a great crystal ball on this, Alan. I think the thing that is the most difficult to appreciate in the affordability calculation, and it's the thing I struggle with, is the latency in certain of the data elements. We know that there has been decent wage growth across most aspects of the economy in the last year. Just in the information that we pull that's based on publicly available data and sort of the chart that we do, and there are lots of ways to do affordability charts, we're not capturing any of that wage growth that's occurred in the last year. I do think that the continuation of wage growth is certainly one thing that's helping. I think it's also the case that broadly, and for us, prices have stabilized.

Frankly, our prices are lower than they were a year ago. I think those two things together have contributed. Now, how much runway there is to go and what the exact magic number is, I think if you tell me that unemployment remains under control and there is a structural gap between the new mortgage rate and the mortgage rates that existing homeowners have, which puts real pressure on the resale supply, I feel pretty good. I mean, demographics and, you know, life events are going to continue to create a need for housing.

I think you've got a group of those voluntary renters, and we talked just a little bit about this in the script, who are realizing they're at a point where, you know, you ought to buy the house and date the rate, fix your occupancy cost today by being an owner, and if rates roll over, there'll be an opportunity to refinance. I think that is also part of the psychology that is assisting on the demand side. Look, I think, and, you know, we haven't gotten into 2024 forecasting, I'm pretty confident our ASPs next year will be lower than they are this year, and that'll largely be driven by intentional mix shifts and I think a little bit by consumers opting for smaller plans.

I think that's the other thing is if you consume a little bit less house and you've had some wage growth and home prices are flat, I think maybe there is just incremental improvement in the affordability picture. Certainly other things could happen, but from where I sit right now, that seems to be a reasonable trajectory.

Alan Ratner
Managing Director, Zelman & Associates

I think that makes a lot of sense. I'm wondering, based on your comments about, you know, the disincentive to give up that low rate, are you seeing stronger activity, you know, on a relative basis at your lower price point, entry level, however you kind of classify it, versus a move up at this point?

Allan Merrill
Chairman, President and CEO, Beazer Homes USA

We are. We don't do a lot of move-up business, so it's challenging for me to think that what we see is a great read-through to broader trends. You know, I can tell you that the active adult buyers, who have either no mortgage or very low principal amounts, they have been quite active this spring as well. It isn't just that first-time buyer and maybe a first-time buyer who has deferred a home purchase, but there are also empty nesters that form a good chunk of the business, both in age-restricted and in non-age-restricted contexts. In some of our markets, like Indianapolis, that empty nester is a really meaningful part of our buyer profile.

Alan Ratner
Managing Director, Zelman & Associates

Got it. I'll just wrap up with a comment more than a question. Kudos on the SG&A leverage because I know, you know, in this inflationary environment, it's tough to keep those costs under control. You know, a lot of your competitors, I think have kind of moved in the opposite direction there. Nice job with the leverage there.

Allan Merrill
Chairman, President and CEO, Beazer Homes USA

Thank you, Alan.

Alan Ratner
Managing Director, Zelman & Associates

Thanks, Allan.

Operator

Thank you. Just a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one. Our next question is from Alex Barron with Housing Research Center. You may go ahead.

Alex Barron
Founder and Senior Research Analyst, Housing Research Center

Yeah, thanks, guys. Nice job in the quarter. David, I wanted to ask about the margin guidance. I think I heard 21%-22%. Was that for next quarter?

Allan Merrill
Chairman, President and CEO, Beazer Homes USA

Yep.

Alex Barron
Founder and Senior Research Analyst, Housing Research Center

Was that before interest or after interest?

Allan Merrill
Chairman, President and CEO, Beazer Homes USA

That was excluding interest, was you guys saying? I know it was a little bumpy on the, as we were reading, but it's 21%-22%, excluding the interest.

Alex Barron
Founder and Senior Research Analyst, Housing Research Center

Got it. Okay. Then I wanted to ask about share buybacks. Do you guys have an authorization in place? If so, how much, and what are the general thoughts around buying back the share, kind of given the disconnect between your equity and where the market is pricing?

Allan Merrill
Chairman, President and CEO, Beazer Homes USA

Well, look, Alex, we do have an authorization. It's in the $30 million remaining to do. I can tell you that, you know, our view on share repurchases is it clearly can be an attractive use of our capital, depending on the share price. Right now, and I think we've made it pretty clear in the script, the focus is clearly on growing the business and doing some modesty leveraging, as Allan mentioned. And of course, we're always focused on maximizing risk-adjusted returns in the business and positioning the business for future growth. We watch it very, very carefully, as you'd imagine. You know, there are times when it's extremely appropriate.

Alex Barron
Founder and Senior Research Analyst, Housing Research Center

Okay. In terms of growing the business, and I heard you say you plan double-digit community count growth, does that require you to, you know, get more active on the land front right now? Or do you feel like you already have enough runway to achieve those goals with the land you already control?

Allan Merrill
Chairman, President and CEO, Beazer Homes USA

We're in great shape for 2024 and well into 2025. The activity that we're engaged in right now is to sustain that growth rate into 2026 and beyond. The good news is, with the control of lots that we've got and have accumulated over the last three years, we're not having to be in a particular panic to chase deals that can open next year. We know what deals are gonna open next year, so we're really being quite selective about opportunities for 2025 and 2026. I think there is a little bit of a frenzy around finished lots out there and folks trying to capitalize on a better environment than anticipated. I would say we've looked at some deals, and it was kinda silly season pricing.

I'm happier with where we are with the growth in the land position over the last few years, creating the runway for our near-term community count growth, allowing us to be more strategic in deploying capital for a couple of years out.

Alex Barron
Founder and Senior Research Analyst, Housing Research Center

you know, given that, several builders canceled deals and stuff like that in the last two, three quarters, have you found anything in that that's attractive or not really or not yet?

Allan Merrill
Chairman, President and CEO, Beazer Homes USA

A little bit. What really happened over the last nine months, and it started last summer through the fall, I mean, we were very transparent about the fact that we were renegotiating everything and relooking, re-underwriting everything. We didn't walk on very many deals, but we were quite successful in reducing either deposits or pricing or timing or risk shifting. You know, we'll close at a further stage of entitlement rather than an earlier stage. I mean, we did a number of things across the deals that we were working on, and I'm really proud of what we did. I think the truth is, a number of our competitors were doing similar things, and that's why there weren't that many deals that fell out. There are some, and we have tied up a few.

I wanna be clear, it's not as if in the last six months we found some magic solution to community count growth with other deals that got dropped. We've added a few here and there that way. Most of what we will be opening into 2024 are deals that we started circling in 20 and 2021, and not things that we've identified in the last six or nine months.

Alex Barron
Founder and Senior Research Analyst, Housing Research Center

Okay, great. Well, best of luck with the new goals. Thanks.

Allan Merrill
Chairman, President and CEO, Beazer Homes USA

Thanks, Alex.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions.

Allan Merrill
Chairman, President and CEO, Beazer Homes USA

Okay. I wanna thank everybody for dialing into our Q2 earnings call. This concludes today's call. Thank you for your time, and we'll see you for our Q3 call.

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for.

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