All right, thanks, everybody. We got Carrier here today, Chairman and CEO, Dave Gitlin, CFO, Pat Goris. Dave's gonna start off with some prepared remarks before we hop into the Q&A.
Thank you, Chris and Morgan Stanley, for having us back again this year. Our transformation journey that we announced about a year ago is nearly complete. This is a new Carrier, a simpler, focused, higher growth Carrier that is highly exposed to important secular trends that will contribute to sustained growth. A little over a year ago, we said that we would successfully close and integrate with Viessmann Climate Solutions and sell five businesses. We closed on VCS as expected, and even though the market is a bit weaker than we planned, we are deeply encouraged by the team, business, market opportunity, synergies, and the integration. In terms of divestitures, some analysts modeled that we would yield $7 billion or so in gross proceeds over the course of two to three years.
Thanks to the efforts of our corporate team, those in the businesses that have performed so well and our advisors, we reached agreements on all five deals in just over a year, and will realize more than $10 billion in gross proceeds, which represents an aggregate EBITDA in the mid-teens. We are on track to close commercial refrigeration on October first, and plan to close commercial and residential fire in Q4. Strong cash flow from operations, along with cash from divestitures, has enabled us to significantly reduce our net debt and initiate our committed buyback of 58 million shares, the amount that we issued as part of the VCS acquisition, and we plan to have that completed by the end of next year.
I could not be more excited to close the year with strength and position ourselves for 2025, a year focused on heads-down execution on the tremendous opportunities in our base business. As we think about 2025, a high percentage of our new portfolio will continue to see very strong growth or will be returning to growth. And we will always drive tenacious aftermarket growth and productivity, helping drive increased recurring revenues, margin expansion, and continued reinvestments in sustained growth. So Chris, with that, Patrick and I are happy to take your questions.
Thank you. You know, maybe, you know, just asking about something you talked about, you know, 2025, a year of head down execution. You know, obviously, been a lot of transformation. I'm assuming that's consumed a lot of your guys' time over the last two years. So, you know, as you kind of get back into execution phase, what does that mean for Carrier? Does it? Is it share gains? Is it margin expansion? What should investors expect?
We've laid out for ourselves a handful of priorities that we're very excited about because, as you said, there's been a lot of moving parts for the system, and as we go into 2025, we have a very focused portfolio, 85% HVAC, 15% transport, refrigeration, and cold chain. It enables us, as a team, to go super deep on these amazing opportunities. Commercial HVAC, a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity with data centers and our ability to grow there, take share, continue to grow margins. Residential, light commercial in North America, we have very high margins, good market share, but there's a lot of moving parts in the system with the refrigerant change. Make sure we execute on that, continue to take share as we have, and let those margins drop through. Viessmann Climate Solutions, obviously a major priority for us.
The market was weaker than we planned, but we have a great team, a great business. We see a return to growth as we get into next year and make sure that we execute on those amazing opportunities, and then we have productivity. We've done a lot with margin expansion, continue to drive that. It's part of our DNA, and then all things aftermarket. You know, we've said that we wanna grow double digits forever. That's very thematic for us, so we'll go super deep on taking our playbook to 2.0 in that area.
Appreciate that. Maybe starting with Viessmann, you know, you talked about demand a little bit softer than you guys thought. So, you know, understand it's cycling down, but when you look out over the medium term, what gives you confidence in, I guess, one, European heat pumps, and two, Viessmann's position to win in that market?
Let me, let me start, and then perhaps Patrick can help our investors with the building blocks of how we think about the growth algorithm. First, on how we think about the European market. Remember that 25% of carbon emissions in Europe come from home heating, and the European Commission, with the reelection at the European Commission level of Ursula von der Leyen, what they have recommitted to is a 55% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 and 90% by 2040. You cannot do that without a shift from fossil fuel heating for homes to heat pumps. It absolutely will happen. It won't happen in a perfect line.
We saw that there were some elements this year that led to a down market, but when you look out, you are gonna see every single country, in one form or another, ladder up to the European Commission targets, which they said today, there's 10 million heat pumps in Europe out of 200 million homes. They've. Their target is 40 million by 2030. That would be well north of a 20% CAGR. Whether or not we get to 40 million by 2030 is TBD, but you do see a significant trend. In Germany, 200,000 heat pumps in homes. The Minister of Finance and Environment has talked about a target of 500,000 for next year.
We won't get to five hundred thousand for next year, but there is an impetus in Germany, Poland, France, Italy, the U.K., to ladder up to what's happening at the European Commission and drive that continuous shift away from fossil fuel heating for homes to heat pumps. The subsidies, what's happened now is we've now gone through a period of stability in countries like Germany, where there was some dithering over the legislation for a period of time. They clarified it in the first quarter. They said the subsidies will start to get paid in October. That put a dulling effect on new orders because people didn't want to get out in front of getting that subsidy paid for their installation. Those subsidies start to get paid in October. We have seen a recent improvement in subsidy applications.
We've seen a correlation to an increase in orders. We need to see that continue as we go through the rest of this year into next year, but subsidy applications in July were 2 X what they were in April, and they were 2 X what they were in July of last year. So we do see some nice underlying trends that do need to continue, but we do see with a period of stability around regulation and subsidies at the country level, we do see it starting to unleash the kind of growth that we expect around heat pumps. And then Patrick, perhaps on the-
Yeah, and maybe I'll start by saying our outlook for Viessmann for this year is sales overall down mid-teens. That assumes Q3 would be close to about 20% down, and we expect Q4 to be flattish year- over- year. It's gonna be the first quarter where we will see better or easier comps. In terms of a framework for Viessmann, and one of the ways we're looking at this is let's assume that volumes are gonna be flat. We don't think they will be flat, but let's assume an environment in volume is flat. We actually see an opportunity to achieve high single-digit to double-digit revenue growth, even in a flat volume environment. And the building blocks are the following: We do see the mix of heat pumps overall picking up versus boilers.
And heat pumps in unit volumes are still significantly lower than boilers. Heat pumps up 15%, boilers down 5%. That's 3%- 4% revenue growth for Viessmann. Add to that about a point of price, you're talking mid-single digits of revenue growth. Then, as you know, we have a very important initiative in the company, which is aftermarket growth. The aftermarket at Viessmann is about 15% of their sales, is growing at double-digit rates. That, again, represents about a point or two of organic growth. Add to that, revenue synergies and the share gains that they're targeting, and basically, we see an environment where with flat revenue growth, we get to a double-digit revenue growth.
Should the data volumes, of course, then pick up, and we've seen the first signs of that. That would help us accelerate that.
I appreciate that. Maybe, you know, following up on the revenue synergies and the cross-selling opportunities, it was something that always stood out when the deal was announced, you know, with the Viessmann strong channel. You know, can you talk about the opportunity for revenue synergies, you know, and where do you see maybe the earliest opportunity for wins?
Sure. I'll start. We actually are recording revenue synergies as we speak, and we are recording them in different parts of the globe. So already within Europe, we're selling Carrier-branded cooling units because we see that actually as an attractive opportunity within Europe, the cooling as well. We're seeing them being sold through the Viessmann channel. At the same time, we have seen instances where the Viessmann channel has been able to sell some of Carrier's commercial HVAC equipment. So we're seeing the cross-selling already happening within Europe, just like we're seeing within the U.S. Through our channel in the U.S., we are already selling some Viessmann products as well. And so same in Asia.
And we've said this before, the cost synergies we target over $200 million by year three. We're on track to do that. We expect about $75 million this year. I believe that over time, the synergies associated with revenues will outweigh the cost synergies. It's gonna take more time, but we see it, and it's a huge opportunity for us.
I guess on the cost synergies, you know, there seem to be... Actually, I think some are even pulled forward. You know, obviously, the market's tougher than you guys thought. You know, how much do you need volumes? Do you need that market to recover to get to that $200 million in year three?
Clearly, it would help. But even with volumes where they are today, we're quite comfortable where we are, we're gonna realize the $75 million of cost synergies this year. In addition to that, and the $200 million we committed to of cost synergies are really sourcing, procurement, related, but we're already seeing some synergies in the G&A element as well. So as there is, attrition or voluntary turnover, we take the opportunity to use the scale we now have, the broader scale we now have. And so even on the G&A side, we're seeing, cost synergies. We're actually not including them in the $75, but there are significant cost synergies there to be had as well. And a long way of saying is when volumes return, we're setting ourselves up well to have attractive incrementals.
I appreciate that. Dave, you mentioned in the opening remarks about, you know, the strong divestiture proceeds coming in above analyst estimates. They came in above mine, so I put myself in that camp. You know, when we kind of run the numbers, we see the company getting back to target leverage and being able to buy back the 58 million shares, you know, over the next 12 months. So maybe it's too early, but, you know, once you kind of get back there, what should investors expect around capital deployment? You know, is there more M&A opportunities out there? And if so, where do you, where are you looking?
I think that we're entering into a phase where we're gonna give the system a fair amount of oxygen to go execute. We will do some bolt-on M&A. We announced a small one, but with a very interesting one recently, with Berlinger in the cold chain space. For the most part, what we're entering into the phase over these coming quarters is heads down set of priorities, a set of KPIs that affect every 50,000 of our employees. We know what our priorities are and execute. We'll continue to be very focused on some bolt-ons. There are some spaces where we can either organically grow or inorganically grow. We'll look at those, but we are not out looking at elephants right now.
Appreciate that. And maybe before I kind of get to some of the market outlook, is there any questions that anyone in the audience has for Dave or Pat?
Thanks very much. Cedar Ekblom from Morgan Stanley . I just wanted to hear how you guys think about the margin outlook for the Viessmann business in Europe, because you talk a very bullish story in terms of top line growth, which I think makes sense. But we are seeing a lot of players, particularly Asian players, responding with capacity additions in Europe. And I wonder if you think that that potentially means some margin risk for the business over the medium term, particularly thinking about the competitiveness of heat pumps with the legacy gas boiler product that's in the market. Thank you.
So I'll, I'll start. Even in the current environment, which clearly is difficult in Europe, our price realization for Viessmann in Europe will be flat or slightly positive. And I think it's a reflection of a few things, and the few things I'm gonna mention go back to the heart of why we really thought we bought the best asset. One, they have very strong differentiation. They play on the very high end of the market. You're looking for equipment that's the most silent and the most efficient, it's Viessmann. Two, it's the combination of being able to have the home energy management system, sanitary hot water, battery storage, PV, heat pump. That is something that is unique to Viessmann. The other element is their channel.
We believe they're the only company that predominantly really go direct to installers. In the U.S., where we go through distribution, it's exclusive distribution. In Europe, distributors generally tend to be non-exclusive, meaning as an OEM, you tend to have less of a power between the distributor and the OEM. And so those things or those elements that I mentioned, I think are some key reasons why, one, we've been able to hold prices even in this very difficult market, and two, why clearly our intention is not just to hold prices, but our assumption is we're at about a point or so per year of price, but it will require continued reinvestments, which obviously we're focused on.
And what I'd add on the margin side is, we said that our our margins that we target for the business for this year was high-teens EBITDA, and that will be our exit rate coming out of Q4. This quarter will be lower, given the volume pressures we see. And I think if there's any silver lining in some of the market weakness that we've seen this year, it sort of has forced us as a combined team to be much more aggressive on the cost side. So whether it's footprint consolidation on the supply chain, G&A, as Patrick mentioned, I think being very targeted and aggressive on the cost side, it positions us for higher conversion rates once the volume recovers as we get into next year.
Appreciate that. You know, Q2 orders, 30% organic, pretty eye-popping. I mean, it sounded like there were some benefits there for maybe early ordering on resi, maybe some data center lumpiness. But, you know, I guess, does it feel to you like these markets are turning? And, you know, when you kind of look at the funnel of orders or the momentum, you know, what do you see in the coming quarters?
Well, I will tell you that we were very pleased with the orders in Q2, and those have generally continued here in Q3 in the first couple of months, so we've seen continued orders in the first couple of months of this quarter in that 20%-30% range. I think part of it, yes, you can attribute on the resi side, so there is some pre-buy of the 410A. But if you look at what we're seeing in commercial HVAC globally, for example, the traction that the industry, but I would say we as a company, are getting around data centers continues to be incredibly encouraging. We have a dedicated team focused on it.
We have a program manager surrounded by operations, engineering, a whole group of folks making sure that we not only win, but then more importantly, we execute for our customers, and that is a very unique opportunity that we're leaning into, so North America looks very strong. We've actually seen positive order growth even in light commercial right now, which I know there's been some question marks around, coming off such great years that we've had, and then we're very pleased with what we're seeing in Europe on the commercial side, and we're now starting to see some level of orders growth, as I mentioned, on the residential/light commercial side, and Southeast Asia is very strong, and China is a watch item.
Yeah. No, appreciate that. Maybe, you know, you talked about, data center and some of the larger applied projects. You know, Carrier is number one in North America, unitary number one in North America resi, number three in applied. You know, can you talk about, you know, what the company is doing to win share in that applied market, and align themselves with some of those great megatrends?
Yeah, I, I would say in a normal course, it would take- it would be a multi-year process for us to catch up to our peers in North American applied. Because of some of the mega projects and the data centers, where instead of winning an order of three chillers, you have the potential to win hundreds, that has the potential for us to really catch up in a much sooner way. And to build that infrastructure, we have to build capacity, so we are repurposing. We're maxing out our facility here in the United States, in Charlotte, North Carolina, but we are also repurposing a complete dedicated facility down in Monterrey, Mexico, from what it had been doing to completely, and it'll be up and running in the first quarter, air-cooled and water-cooled chillers. So we have to build capacity.
We have a whole tiger team building technicians out in the field. We have a whole group of activities around sourcing to make sure that it's not just operations, but you have a supply chain that can feed you the parts when you need them, because this is gonna be very programmatic. This is gonna be something unlike anything we've ever done before to execute on this. And then the really exciting one of the many exciting things is gonna be the aftermarket. If you picture a facility like this that may have three chillers, and now you have a facility, standalone data center with a hundred and fifty, how we think about hyperscale agreements to support our customers will be unlike anything we've done. So we're gonna have on-site monitoring. We're gonna have...
We need a rotable pool of inventory, on-site technicians, and that's gonna force us, as a company, as we think about our aftermarket 2.0 strategy. We've done a lot. We've said double digits forever. We've done that since our spin, but this can help force us to go to new heights.
You know, you mentioned the market we're in now allows you to catch up to your peers maybe faster than a normal market. And is that because if you win an award, they're, you know, multi-site, multi-project awards, or is it 'cause there's demand, there's so much demand out there, that maybe everyone's a little bit spread thin, both on capacity and just selling efforts?
I think it's a bit of both. I think it's our intent is to win more than our fair share. We've invested heavily in the product line, so we're very pleased with our technical offerings. The hyperscalers have made sure that they not only audit our facilities, but they audit our technical capabilities. They run a very rigorous process with a first-of-kind unit to make sure that you've hit all of their technical criteria, that I'm very proud of our engineering team. We continue to perform there, and then if we can win more than our fair share, which we are intent on doing, that does help us accelerate our share gains in North America. I mean, and remember, you know, we're either one or two in Europe and Asia.
So it's the big opportunity for us as a, you know, company, is that we have this balanced portfolio. As you said, number one in resi, light commercial in North America. Love our position with Viessmann in resi and light commercial in Europe. Love our position on the commercial side in Europe and Asia. Love our position in global transport refrigeration. The focus and the opportunity is North American applied, and this is the opportunity that's gonna galvanize the share gains that we want.
I appreciate that. Maybe turning over to North America resi, where you guys are the leader. You know, a really good, encouraging Q2. You know, maybe the better visibility on policy, I'm sure, helped. You know, the weather seemed like it was a bit of a tail end. You know, do you think that market is turning? Are you confident in continued momentum, or is it, you know, maybe some transitory uplift from those two, drivers?
No, I think we took our medicine a bit over in, as we got into 2022, 2023, and it does feel like it's turning right now. So we are encouraged by the orders that we've seen. You will have this interplay in 2024 and 2025 between the 410A and the 454B. So exactly how much we start next year on the shelf with 410A, TBD. We're working closely with our distribution and our dealer network to see exactly how much they want. I think our team's done a nice job of having the ability to flex with 410A, where maybe some of our peers have not been able to. So we'll do what we need to do to support our customers this year.
I'm sure we'll ship some 410A in the first quarter of next year, but very little 454B this year. I think the priority for our customers is 410A, and then we'll get that mixed benefit of 454B as we go into next year.
Yeah. Maybe on the light commercial side, you know, certainly hung in better than feared. You know, four quarters of 30% plus order declines, you know, was definitely creating some concern. You know, Q2, back to the positive. You know, I guess, why do you think this market has, you know, been so resilient, and should we expect, you know, moderation from here?
We came into the year saying we'd be down about 5%. Now we'll be up slightly. But, you know, I think our first quarter was 20%, and our second quarter was 10%, so better than we thought in the first quarter. And I do think the resilience of some of these verticals continues to be strong, coming off very strong years, where we've had huge share gains, with actual margin expansion, driven by technology differentiation, focused on some of the national accounts. So very pleased with that team. I don't think we're gonna grow like we have been. I do think there will be some level of moderation in 3Q and 4Q. We continue to see opportunities in K through 12. In the ESSER funding, there was $190 billion.
There's still 40 or 50 left to be spent right now, to be allocated in the next couple of months. Most states have applied for extensions, of course. So we do see some strength in some of the key verticals that have been strong. We won't continue to see the growth rates we've seen, but perhaps flat to modest growth feels good.
Yeah, appreciate that. Is the wins and the success that you guys are having on the applied side, does that provide a lift to the commercial unitary side?
What I would say is generally no, but I would say that, if you just step back and look at Carrier, I think that when we spun, we said that we were gonna invest in growth. And if we can leverage technology across the enterprise, which we have been doing, if you look at our R&D at spin, you know, we stood on the New York Stock Exchange in 2020 and said that we were gonna significantly increase investments in growth, and we've done that. $400 million of R&D just back four years ago, and you're starting to get close to double that just four years later, and that's helped us gain share. And what we're trying to do is more platforming on a global level. So as an example, one electronics design criteria for boards, and that can leverage the entire system.
Yeah, maybe on that, you know, leveraging investment and technology, and taking the conversation to service, you know, for my money, commercial HVAC service is as good of a business as I cover when you think about, you know, the ability to invest in digitized solutions. I guess, how long do you think this runway for high single-digit growth is? And, you know, historically, commercial HVAC service has been, you know, dominant. It's been very fragmented, regional, competitors. You know, how do those guys continue to compete in a world with, you know, digitized service and, you know, where investing capital is a, is a bigger moat?
Yeah, from an overall company point of view, we still estimate that we only capture about 25% of the aftermarket revenue associated with our installed base. And so the question is: how long can we keep this going? Our intention is to keep it going for a very long period of time. It's our installed base, we know, the customers, asset-light build business models, on average, about 10 points higher gross margin, and a healthy element of recurring revenue stream. So we have a tremendous long way to go. It's also why we focus on scalability, and I think you touched on that.
We invest in digital platforms, Lynx for the cold chain, Abound for a commercial HVAC, and unlike a smaller local player, they will never have the ability to scale their technology as much as we can, and so hundreds of thousands of chillers out there, it's still a significant minority that's connected today. We know once it's connected, the aftermarket revenue stream doubles or triples, and that's without even adding all the services we could add, so a huge focus, whether it is a commercial HVAC or transport refrigeration, connecting what's out there, adding services to it, we have a long runway.
Yeah. No, I appreciate that. On transport refrigeration, you know, if you look at industry data, it says the market will turn in 2025, 2026, after a softer 2024. You know, how are customer conversations here, you know, when you talk about demand needs over the next twelve months?
Yeah, this is if I look at transport refrigeration, container, which went through a downturn last year, has picked up. We've seen some decent growth rates there this year. I think Q1 was plus 50%, last quarter was plus 30%. International truck and trailer continues to do really well, especially in Asia. Europe also good growth there. North America truck and trailer is clearly where we've seen weakness. Utilization of the fleet's not as high as it used to be. We actually also saw that translated in some of our aftermarket sales for that business. We saw a little bit of cannibalization there, people taking parts from units not being used. We do expect that to pick up. And so ACT, for example, projects next year to be up mid-teens.
We do expect this year to remain difficult in North America truck and trailer, but we expect that to pick up, as we end the year and certainly into next year.
Well, yeah, I appreciate that. Maybe finishing up on HVAC margins. You know, last four quarters, you know, kind of up in the ballpark of two hundred basis points year- on- year, you know, despite you know, all the investments you guys are making in technology and growth. I guess, why are margins expanding the way it has? Is the value add to the customer just better than it used to be, and you know, some of those economics are coming to you know, all the HVAC OEMs?
Yeah, there are, of course, several elements to it. And of course, we always would like. And Dave mentioned earlier, light commercial, what we have done there. New product, higher efficiency, and the same footprint than our competitors. We're able to price that appropriately because the customer sees the benefit. But a key component of what's happening with our margins, frankly, is productivity. We have a new operations leader who just started a few years ago. He's built a tremendous team. We have still an enormous opportunity to grow after the cost side. It's not just the purchasing side and the materials we buy, the commodities and/or that we purchase, and so on, but and of course, we have G&A opportunities as well. But plant footprint, logistics, there is still a lot of runway left.
For this year, we expect the HVAC margins to be up about 100 basis points year- over- year, even though there is a headwind there from the Viessmann acquisition. Then going forward, for the overall company, we target over 50 basis points a year of margin expansion. This year, it will be about 100 basis points for the overall company as well. Our target is for every year, overall company margins to expand by over 50 basis points, hence, the same for HVAC.
On the productivity initiatives, is that, you know, just a continued recovery from all the inefficiency that COVID and supply chain brought, or is that more of a, you know, bigger picture, kind of almost restructuring type efforts relative to a normal environment?
I would say last year, a lot of it was recovery.
Yeah.
Especially, for example, on freight and logistics, where we saw the rates come down very significantly last year. Actually, the rates are a little bit higher this year. The productivity driven this year, there is less firefighting going on. It is really programmatic.
Yeah.
And that's the good thing about it is because, for example, this year, we started the year with a much larger proportion of our productivity target identified and in the bag than we did the year before. And that's the programmatic productivity that we want to have within our company, and that's the fly we want to have going forward.
Appreciate that. Then last one on HVAC margins, and then price cost. You know, price cost has been a tailwind for pretty much every company I cover over the last year. You know, you guys still have an elevated backlog. You know, when you look at the backlog and you look at the demand for the products, do you guys feel like price cost is a continued tailwind from here?
That's our assumption, and I think in a more normal environment, we expect to realize price of about a point or so net a year, give or take, so low single digits, but price cost, we always target that to be positive because of the strong productivity programs we have.
Yeah, appreciate that. So, we're up on the thirty minutes. You know, really appreciate both of you guys, and love the conversation.
Thank you, Chris. Thanks for having us. Appreciate it.
Thank you.
Thank you, man. Oh, thank you.
Thanks for having us.