Welcome back everyone. Those outside the room, if you could come in and get settled and be reseated. So I'm pleased to introduce our Group President of Resource Industries, Denise Johnson.
Okay, well, thank you, Alex, and it's great to be here with all of you today. Again, I'm Denise Johnson, Group President for Resource Industries. Today I'm going to discuss our plans for RI and show that by addressing the most fundamental needs of our customers, that will grow. So let's get started. Most of you know Resource Industries is a global leader and it's made up of three industries, mining, heavy construction, quarry and aggregates, and beginning January 1, rail. These are the largest machines in Caterpillar's portfolio, operating in some of the most remote locations compared with construction industries. Relatively low volume, but the duty cycle is much higher. Running 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days per year. Extreme environments from minus 40- 120 degrees Fahrenheit, high altitude to a mile underground. Underscoring their durability and reliability.
We cover the full spectrum of commodities from coal to copper to iron ore to coal to critical minerals and also gravel and rock. In January, rail becomes part of the RI portfolio and it's an exciting evolution that really allows us to capitalize on the synergies. As Joe spoke, shared customers, shared component manufacturing footprint, shared suppliers and shared technology roadmaps. Turning to our financial performance, as you can see from this chart, it shows traditional RI's sales and profitability improving, all underscored and underpinned by the O & E model. We're operating with a high performing portfolio that delivers strong results and leads the industry in returns. Caterpillar is the industry leader in mining, haulage and notably autonomous haulage, which is poised to rapidly grow moving forward, helping our customers mine more sustainably.
While recognizing that every path to zero emissions is different, is a top priority and it certainly has been for our mining customers. We believe our Pathways to Sustainability program, working with customers to collaborate on a wide range of sustainability solutions is strategic and our groundbreaking CAT dynamic energy transfer solution offers industry-first benefits, which I'll talk more about shortly. Now, as Jason mentioned, the world needs more power, more energy. Tony talked about the need for more infrastructure. This drives demand increases of nearly 40% for critical minerals such as copper and graphite and battery material and a 28% increase for construction aggregates. At the same time, we see ore grades for commodities like copper continuing to decline, meaning more materials need to be moved to extract the same amount of ore.
All of this drives demand for more machines, higher asset utilization and a keen focus on cost. We've talked for some time about customers continuing to be disciplined with their capital. Many of them are stretching the lives of their machines beyond previous levels and the average age in the industry for mining and quarry and aggregate is about 12 years. The average age of a Caterpillar large mining truck is actually 14. Over 14 years, we've seen a fivefold increase in the number of full machine rebuilds over the past 20 years. However, many aging fleets are entering a critical phase and they are approaching almost 200,000 hours of life and they will need to be replaced, especially if you consider technology. We're seeing similar dynamics in rail, with many customers choosing to rebuild and repower, but with replacement demand expected to begin.
In addition, we are seeing the mining industry entering a new investment cycle, so based on the industry outlook, as you see here, we project mining capital expenditures to grow by 50% by 2030. While much of this increase will be invested in mine development, we also expect healthy investment for mobile equipment and technology. Our portfolio of machines, technology and services is aligned with these trends and we believe reinforce our role to be a strategic partner. As we outline our strategy in RI, we're keenly focused in three areas and I'm going to speak in detail about these next. First and foremost, and you've heard this already, commercial excellence. For RI, that means delivering industry-leading performance at site and increasing our presence with the customer. Focused on aligning our incentives with the customers such that we win together.
Second, we're doubling down on our role as an advanced technology leader with rapidly growing autonomy and expanding our technology suite with something we're calling Precision Mining. We're also expanding our portfolio of sustainability solutions as customers are in very different places along the sustainability continuum. Our vision is to build an ecosystem, an ecosystem of products and services enabled by technology to help our customers become safer, more productive, efficient and lower their total cost per ton in mining. Like other industries, our customers' ability to use data to drive insights and efficiencies in operations will be a key differentiator. At Caterpillar, we are uniquely positioned in our ability to integrate data from machines, from energy systems and infrastructure, and especially as we move further into autonomy and Precision Mining to help customers be successful.
So let's dig in and talk about the first of our three priorities, Commercial excellence. I want to start with an example of how we're working with customers differently. Many of you know Suncor as an integrated energy company operating in the Canadian oil sands over the past few years. We've worked closely with them on a very different approach to how we collectively drive the lowest operating cost. So let's hear more about it in this video.
Together we have a really unique opportunity to shape what the future of oil sands mining will look like for all of us.
We operate some of the largest mining operations anywhere in the world. Over the last few years, we've made some remarkable strides in improving every aspect of our business. But we're not done yet. We recognize there's more work ahead and we're looking for Caterpillar and Finning to be essential players in helping us reach t he next level of performance.
When Suncor came to us to help take their performance to the next level, we saw the opportunity to deliver greater value in safety, productivity and cost, all enabled by technology. We said let's prove what's possible when y ou bring a customer, Caterpillar and the dealer together. Working closer than ever before with aligned goals and incentives to deliver site performance.
We are developing a deep understanding of w hat means most to Suncor: cost per barrel, site productivity, and long-term performance. As an initial step, we have implemented a cost per hour agreement through a Cat Job Site Solutions JSS agreement with dedicated Caterpillar fleet management and condition monitoring on 20 Cat 797 Ultra Class trucks. This initial agreement makes us contractually accountable to deliver on our commitments. We all have skin in this game through shared risk. They put their trust in us as a team by signing that agreement and we are determined to deliver.
We're on a journey to develop a h igh-performing team with our safety priorities aligned, moving forward with technology to deliver t he best results possible for the business. This is truly stepping into a results. Driven team versus a transactional business model we've had in the past to deliver the best possible outcome for all three. Cat, Finning and Suncor.
Are in Suncor's daily planning meetings w e're out in the pit. If there's a snag, our folks are r ight there to get Suncor back on track immediately. No waiting around. We're on the same mission, driving value for all. Because of how closely we are working t ogether, we can resolve open topics quickly and a chieve breakthrough outcomes. We're faster, more integrated, and easier to work with. The JSS agreement really marks an important first step in exploring what's possible. Through collaboration with Caterpillar and Finning, it lays the groundwork for aligning our performance. Goals and much more clearly. By aligning incentives and delivering the performance we said we would, we are earning Suncor's trust and confidence and it's opened the door to more business. That's the best feedback you can get and it demonstrates what's possible when you perform and deliver value for a customer.
And we're not stopping here. We're confident that we can continue to meet their expectations through technology and the experts that we have embedded at site. And we're exploring even more innovative ways to align incentives and transform the way that we do business together.
So our success at Suncor can and will be replicated with other customers as we increase our focus on providing outcome based solutions and really being on site with customers. As you heard in the video, Autonomy is one of the technology solutions that Suncor is using to support their improvement journey. And it's one that we're hearing a lot of pull from many customers. Increasingly they really want to turn to autonomy and technology in general. Which brings me to our second focus area, advanced technology.
So, autonomy and automation are the fastest-growing trends in mining with a projected 12% CAGR driven by declining ore grades, rising input costs, and certainly continued labor issues. We believe the Caterpillar autonomy solution is superior and we're delivering new solutions to create even more value such as flexible pricing and customized deal structures. We're developing a new tech stack and software enhancements to not only improve the user interface but also improve productivity. We deliver a mixed OEM fleet solution and we're deploying autonomy-enabled trucks straight from the factory. We are confident with this approach that we're committed to tripling the number of autonomous trucks in operation by 2030. Now let me give you an example demonstrating this approach in action.
We had a large customer looking for an autonomy solution to help them overcome productivity and utilization challenges in two of the largest iron ore mine sites in South America. They also needed technology to work across their mixed fleets which included both CAT trucks and competitive trucks on site. We worked with our dealer to design a customized proposal and in that we developed a mixed fleet solution putting our autonomy on CAT and the competitive trucks, a very flexible commercial model moving from what would be traditionally a CapEx to an OpEx model and an accelerated timeline for technology deployment. The solution was our differentiator and we won the award to put our autonomy on more than 90 trucks. Deals like this position us well for future fleet replacements. Many sites around the world have mixed fleets and are looking to activate technology immediately.
We're working to take our proven autonomy expertise and expand it in the cores. And we announced this previously. Our teams are implementing a customer backed solution which is lighter touch and lower cost to really be viable in this industry and there's no better way to do the development than with a customer at site. And that's what the team's been doing with Luck Stone in Virginia. And you'll see this in action with a video that Bob De Lange will show you shortly. We're meeting with CORI customers every day and I'm confident we all will see a healthy uptick in Autonomy adoption in the CORI space between now and 2030. So autonomy positions us to go deeper with customers at site, and going deeper positions us to go wider. And that's where precision mining comes into play.
Precision Mining is a technology approach to help customers mine more efficiently and productively at the total lowest cost. The competition for technology in this space is strong, but the solutions are very fragmented and they're siloed and they don't deliver the value that our customers need. Our vision is for Precision Mining to be an end-to-end solution delivered by Caterpillar, internal capability combined with venture capital and acquisitions to help our customers optimize their complete value chain, and we're not waiting to work to build out the value chain solution today. We do have solutions primarily in the load and haul space, but we're planning to expand across the value chain that I just mentioned. The first step in that build out as announced is that we have entered into an agreement to acquire a company called RPMGlobal.
RPM has 50 years of deep mining expertise in the industry. Their technology solutions are focused on mine and financial planning, maintenance, execution and simulation expertise. Many of our existing customers and dealers use RPM today and in fact Caterpillar uses it as part of our solution set. We plan to integrate RPM solutions with our technologies in the future to enable improved performance for our customers. Many of you may not be familiar with RPM and their technology solutions, so I thought today I would show you a promotional video that RPM had developed so that you get a flavor for exactly what they do.
Every day around the world, hundreds of thousands of people are working to deliver, s afer, cleaner and more efficient mining operations. And every day RPMGlobal is there t o support them moving forward. For more than 50 years, RPMGlobal h as been at the forefront of mining, advancing the industry. We have helped shape what mining is t oday and have supported the growth of s ome of the world's largest organizations. No decision in mining happens in isolation. Every change affects something else in the chain. That is why RPM solutions are integrated a nd use open architectures and standards to s hare data and encourage collaboration across your organization.
At RPM, we believe the mine plan is the foundation of any successful o perations. Starting with design, RPM offers a step change in technology. Our sophisticated parametric products take away the t edious work of traditional planning packages. Our suite of mining scheduling solutions covers all time horizons from intra-shift right t hrough to life of mine and broader strategic views. The speed and accuracy of the software a llows you to create multiple scenarios. U nlocking additional value that is often difficult to see. One of the biggest impacts on any o peration is the availability of equipment. Our asset management and inventory optimization solutions ensure your machines are available when you need them and let maintenance and operations. Teams work together to minimize downtime and maximize productivity. Our unique dynamic lifecycle costing engine continuously u pdates the lifecycle cost of every asset f or every event in real time. This gives a clear, accurate and full p icture of your assets.
RPMGlobal's financial solutions have been advancing the industry for over 30 years and a re uniquely placed to bring mine scheduling, asset management, budgeting and financial modeling together. Our solutions cover operational budgeting and forecasting. As well as life of mine costing. Simulation solutions connect the fleet assets and m ining operational plans to build a digital t win of your operation. RPM's discrete event simulation is used all around the world to support activities ranging from short term planning to capital investment. As the industry moves towards more e nvironmentally responsible operations, RPM simulations are being u sed to assist those decisions. Our off-the-shelf simulation software can b e used to simulate different outcomes for. An autonomous, electric or hydrogen mining fleet and q uantify the results of each scenario f or the past 50 years the mining i ndustry has turned to RPM and as w e rapidly accelerate towards the industry's next p hase, RPM will be there every step of the way.
The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of next year and we look forward to the value that we'll deliver together for our mining customers. So next I'd like to speak with you about the ways that we're integrating technology into solutions that support our customer sustainability journeys. So Caterpillar is delivering commercially viable solutions today. Solutions that balance the need to be more sustainable while also addressing immediate operational needs. I spoke earlier about rebuilds and life extension initiatives. They're very important to many of our customers. We're also working to identify alternative fuel options. We have HVO and biodiesel solutions today and with Vale we're working on an ethanol diesel dual fuel solution that's part of their plan to reduce greenhouse emissions by 33% by 2030. Our fleet management systems and our advanced engines are designed to optimize energy across complex sites.
Many of you know autonomy drives fewer working assets to meet the same production requirements, thereby improving sustainability and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Through hybrid powertrains we deliver solutions that really step down the customer's carbon footprints while maintaining productivity. An example of that is the D11XE Dozer. It's capable of reducing up to 25% fuel consumption, which is about 100 gallons per day, while also delivering improved productivity. These solutions are available today and in the near future we're going to have even more. We're very focused on solving for the entire site because what will work for each customer will be unique. In a minute I'll talk about our groundbreaking Cat Dynamic Energy Transfer system or DET. Next, we have our 793 diesel electric and battery electric mining trucks.
They share a large percentage of the same components and support future retrofits such that if you start with the diesel 793 and you want to swap it out for a battery powertrain instead, that capability is available through partnerships with Cat Electric Power. We're also offering micro grids, energy storage systems and gensets to support holistic site energy management solutions. And then finally we are in process of validating our full battery electric solutions which we announced at the last Investor Day. 793XE, we have four early learners in the field today that are being validated. So remember, these solutions are not one size fits all. They're designed to support each customer's unique pathway. So with that I'd like to go into a little more detail with you on Cat DET, is expected to be commercially available in the fourth quarter of 2026.
It is a versatile solution for both diesel electric and battery electric machines offering immediate productivity gains up to two times speed on grade and significant greenhouse gas reduction. Cat DET is comprised basically of three core elements if you think about it. First, an energy transfer module that converts AC to DC to power the truck. A third rail transmission system that delivers energy effectively across the mine site. An onboard machine technology that interfaces seamlessly with the truck's powertrain. The rail system is mobile and that's unique. It's not like an overhead trolley. It can be customized to the customer specific site layout that includes high speed or curved haul roads. The connecting arm can be installed on either side of the truck and on multiple truck models. So it's a very flexible system that can be moved and expanded to allow maximum mine coverage.
It integrates with autonomy and also electrification to provide holistic site-to-site solutions. This is a breakthrough innovation and we're super excited to get it out in the field and with customers. So to wrap things up for resource industries, I'm confident in our future because of our unique ability to integrate technology and machines. Our future isn't just about building machines, it is about building smarter, more connected operations at customer sites for our customers. By offering outcome-based solutions and advanced technologies and by supporting our customer sustainability journeys, we're helping them to mine safer, more efficiently and predictably. We're investing, innovating and reaffirming our leadership as the premier provider of mining technology and solutions. And now I'd like to turn it over to my colleague Bob De Lange. Thank you.
Thank you, Denise, and good morning. It is really exciting to be here with you today and have an opportunity to share with you that for us digital and technology is not just about tools and applications we develop, but more importantly for us, it's an engine of change. We're using it to transform Caterpillar, create even more competitive differentiation and it'll be a key driver for growth in the years to come. But before we dive in, let's take a minute and look back to the past few years because we've already made significant progress in the last five years. If I start on the left, connectivity, we have 1.5 million connected and reporting assets today. One of the largest in our industry and up from about 1.1 million when we talked to you in our last investor day.
In our last investor day we also talked about PSEs, prioritized service events, the aftermarket sales leads we generate and send to our dealers. But going forward we're going to zoom in on a subset of those PSEs, condition monitoring PSEs where we don't just use our theoretical models, but also the full array of sensory input. We get to create even more accurate PSEs to help predict issues that can occur in our equipment and where we then also see the highest win rates when we send them to our dealers. We didn't really have those in 2021. Last year we achieved $1.1 billion in closed-win sales based on those condition monitoring PSEs.
Next one, e-commerce, where we met at our last investor day we told you we had about $10 million per business day in e-commerce sales and we committed to grow that by 50% by 2025. In reality, we did even better than that. Last year we already achieved $18 million per business day or about $4.5 billion for the full year in e-commerce sales. And then last, like you already heard from Denise, the end of last year we had 690 autonomous mining trucks in operation traveling together about the equivalent of three times around the world on a daily basis. So pretty solid foundation to start building on. This is my most important message for today, which is that we see digital and technology shifting from being enablers for our business to increasingly becoming the key sources of competitive differentiation. And why do I say that?
It's because if you look at our traditional updates to our equipment, changes to the hydraulics, the drivetrain, the engine, we usually get incremental improvements in performance a couple of percentage. Whereas with digital and technology they hold the promise of making transformational change step changes in solving our customers' toughest challenges. And I'll give you some examples of that transformational change here in a minute. But the challenges are real if you look at them that I listed here. Safety. Less than 5% of the U.S. labor force is employed in construction, yet it represents 20% of workplace fatalities. Skilled labor shortages. Like you already heard from Tony, consistently among the top three issues that we hear from pretty much all our customers for 30% of construction is rework. 40% of construction projects are over budget. So real challenges to which we can give real solutions.
So let's dive into some examples and I'll start with digital. First one are condition monitoring PSCs like I mentioned before, highly qualified data driven leads we send to our dealers. Now why can we as Caterpillar be so good at it? I already mentioned we have a very large connected fleet. But I would say our true competitive differentiation, our secret sauce, if you will, probably is our data platform Helios. 16 petabytes of data that we collect from all our connected assets from inspection reports from our dealers and from customers. Work order history, our theoretical models, engineering recommendations, all the dealer invoices, I mean a total 30 different data sources, over 50 billion records we ingest on a monthly basis. All of which gets fed into our AI engine, generating those proprietary qualified sales leads that we send straight into the dealer CRM.
Now how will those help us grow? We believe it'll help create customer loyalty over time because we help them avoid downtime, the one thing they do not want on their job site. And we do that by turning unplanned surprises, unplanned failures into planned events. Maintenance, preventative repair and overhaul so customers avoid downtime. For Caterpillar, it creates incremental services opportunities. And we want to be proactive and quick with our customers so we can get the work done even before our competition shows up. To give you a small example, we recently created a new digital twin for our line of Caterpillar turbochargers. They fitted about a third of our total Connected fleet for which we created that digital twin.
With our knowledge of the machine design, the engine design, all the sensory input to date, it already allowed us to create 2,500 condition monitoring PSEs allowing customers to avoid downtime. For us, it was an incremental $7 million sales opportunity. So that was the first example. Next one, e-commerce and the key here, this is more than about buying parts, this is about making it easy to do business with Caterpillar. Now why can we do this better? Lots of people can create a website where you can buy parts. We make it an integrated digital experience. What do I mean with that? It starts with a customer that can scan a QR code on the machine so that afterwards you look up on e-commerce and you look for a fuel filter, it doesn't show you 17 different fuel filters you can buy.
It only shows you those parts that are guaranteed to fit on your specific serial number. Or if you're a do it yourself customer and you're using our service information system SIS to troubleshoot an issue on your machine, try and identify which repair you need inside our SIS service information system. It includes a link you can click that will then pre-populate your e-commerce cart with all the necessary parts to perform that repair in a number of cases. Even the tooling for large corporate accounts, we have a dedicated e-commerce system that integrates straight into the customer's ERP system. Again making it very easy for them to work with us. And then of course we have an industry-leading parts distribution network, fast delivery in pretty much all corners of the world. So how will this help us grow?
I believe it's just like in our personal lives. If you make it easy, customers come back, and if you look at our growth rates over the last few years, that is exactly what has been happening. Third, and my last example for digital is about VisionLink, our flagship application that help customers manage all aspects of their fleet. Now why can we do this better? I mean you can go and there's other providers that might say well we can do fluid sampling for you and then display the report on a website. What we do is make one easy to use solution that brings it all together in one place. You can monitor machine health, get fault codes, also see those SOs, fluid sampling results, inspection results, history from your operators, from the dealer.
It also includes a two way communication tool with your dealers or your local dealer. If you want to schedule maintenance, ask for a quote for repair, approve the repair online, get live status report of the progress of your overhaul, a fleet manager who is interested in efficiency can manage idle time of the different machines, monthly utilization, track fuel consumption. There's also a safety module in there. Which of my operators didn't wear their seatbelts yesterday? What are the high risk areas where I had near misses on the job site? I have. There's a productivity module in there as well for those wanting to optimize productivity where you can measure and analyze cycle times, track productivity and so all in one single easy to use application.
And also keep in mind, we're not just showing information or alerts, we can also give recommendations because we have access to all the data, we know our machine design, we have the domain expertise so we can do it all in one place for the customer. How will it help us grow? We believe that by creating a very easy to use ecosystem of applications for the customer that customers will want to stay in that ecosystem again. Growing loyalty for both prime product and services over time. But to make it real, let's maybe listen to an example. One of our customers, BDZ Construction, a great customer of ours in the Pacific Northwest.
Prior to VisionLink we were writing everything down on pen and paper and going out in the field and trying to get hours and going out in the field and talking to guys about issues with the machines, and now that we're set up with VisionLink, that's just a click away. Pull a report. Fault codes are sent directly to my phone. Preventative maintenance is more on track because it tells you exactly how many hours you're away from your last service to the next service. Fluid sample reports are right there rather than a file cabinet. You can see all your CVA agreements, you can see all your warranty history. VisionLink's really easy to understand, really easy to access. Every part of it's just easy to work with.
I use the mobile app for kind o f the more basic stuff. A couple days previous utilization, checking fault codes, checking hours, looking up machine locations because you can just click on the address and it'll give you GPS directions on how to get there. We use VisionLink for everything from preventative maintenance tracking to utilization. Overseeing asset operations for previous days. We months we set up geo fences to track different projects fault codes. We keep track of all of our fluid samples, pretty much everything.
So those are some examples on the digital end. Let's now switch gears and talk about technology and how technology can help us solve our customers toughest challenges and unlock value at the site level. And I put them here in three main categories. First one being safety. And here we have solutions for object detection, collision warning and mitigation. We have a system for driver fatigue detection o r like on our excavators, we have a system where you can maximize the limit height for your front linkage if you would be working underneath power lines. Or you can also set a maximum digging depth if you would be working, for example above underground utilities. Second one being productivity. Here we have systems like for our loading tools, excavators, wheel loaders of a payload measurement system.
If you're focused on productivity, it can help you make sure that when you're loading a truck, you fully load the truck, maximize productivity. You can at the same time avoid overloading the truck and avoid the risk of future damage. Or in some applications, like in a quarry, you can even in some instances avoid the need of an extra weighing bridge that is usually used to weigh the trucks before they get back on the road. Because you can do it while you're loading the truck. Another example is what I've shown here. In the picture is our 3D Grade Control, and you can think of that as autopilot for machines with the blades for excavators, motor graders, track type tractors.
And to make it real, imagine a test we have done like you've seen here on the picture with an excavator where we had to finish grade with precision, just a distance of 10 m, 30-degree grade. You can imagine the side slope of a motorway or an irrigation canal. If you do that job with no technology, first thing you will do is do your measurements, make sure you know where the 30-degree grade is. Next you'll put some pieces of wood, usually just some visual indications of where you want the end result to be. Then to be sure, most customers also have a grade checker. A person that will be next to the excavator just as the work progresses, checks whether correct on the grade. And you of course introduce some safety risk with that.
And then you have to hope you also have a qualified experienced operator to do the work. Because otherwise you still have the risk to get the right grade with the right accuracy that you'll either do another pass or if you're not careful that you're over cutting. When we did this test with an experienced operator, took us 38 minutes. Then we did the same test with the excavator with 3D Grade Control. First thing you do is you get the engineering drawing for the job site design. With our VisionLink application. You can download it over the air straight to the machine so the machine knows what you're trying to achieve. Next, you don't need to do measurements. Machine has GPS, it knows exactly with precision where you are. So you also do not need to put visual indications.
You do not need a second person doing the grade check, so we're already working safer, and then while you're working, the machine will actually help you with the autopilot stay on grade. You also get visual indications in the cab. I mean it becomes so easy. You don't need a 30-year experienced operator with minimal training. Even somebody like me would be able to do job like that, end result from 38 minutes down to 12 minutes for the exact same job, and that's what customers are telling us consistently. You use 3D Grade Control, you get the work done, finished grading jobs in less than half of the time, and that's a perfect example of what I mentioned before. With our traditional updates on drivetrain, hydraulics and the engine, we get incremental productivity improvements. Technology holds the promise of making transformational step change in addressing customer challenges.
Safety, productivity, cost. Last bucket, then, is on autonomy. Here we have line-of-sight remote control solutions. We have non-line-of-sight remote control solutions like you see in the picture here in case you want to take the operator out of a hazardous situation or you want them to work in a more comfortable working environment. Or it also has the benefit that if an operator works in such a station that they can actually operate multiple machines at the same time, again improving productivity. Then we have task autonomy, for example for drill tramming or auto compaction on a compactor. And then we have our autonomous mining hauling solution like Denise already showed, which actually is also an area where we continue to invest. Denise mentioned it.
We are working very hard to expand the potential reach of our autonomy solutions well beyond mining in a number of applications, and the one we're working on right now with Luck Stone is to bring autonomy also to quarries, a very large market, a very large opportunity where we're partnering with them on our 100-ton truck platform, our 777, so let's listen what Luck Stone had to s ay.
In 2024, we collaborated with the team at Luck Stone to deploy Caterpillar's first autonomous fleet in the quarry industry. What began as a small scale proof of concept has evolved over time to s howcase what's possible in terms of productivity, efficiency and safety. We've seen some pretty substantial gains in the first 11 months with the autonomous haul trucks. I would say in the first year we've met or exceeded all of our goals. So I was a plant operator before. Now I'm a pit lead for the autonomous trucks down here. The software that we're using is Cat MineStar. That's where I can build and change a nything I need to do, and autonomy at Bull Run has also p aved the way for safer work conditions.
The autonomous trucks, I think, have made certain scenarios safer. When we're operating closer to high walls, there's no human risk. It's all the trucks. Across productivity, efficiency and safety, Luck Stone is the proving ground for what's possible through autonomy. Autonomy continues to make an impact at Luck Stone, and as Caterpillar brings the technology to other industries, we will play a pivotal r ole in building a better world.
So as we are convinced that digital and technology is key to our competitive differentiation going forward, we're also stepping up our investment. Joe already mentioned it. We're planning a two and a half increase in digital and technology in the coming five years as compared to the last five, which was already very significant. In addition to that, as the technology environment is changing very rapidly, in some cases even by the month, we're also partnering with some of the leading companies in the world, like with Nvidia, to bring AI to manufacturing and onto our machines. Microsoft's been a long-standing partner for everything related to cloud and productivity and for organizing Helios, everything related to organizing our data. We are working with Snowflake on top of that to even further accelerate.
As you've seen in the example with Luck Stone, we are working with some key corporate accounts around the world on early learner strategies to accelerate the development of our new technologies. Now, before closing, I also wanted to take a second to reinforce once again that we are fully embracing AI to create a differentiated customer experience. Everything from simplified engagement across our digital ecosystem. Think an increasing number of onboard and off board agents, autonomous machine features, predictive analytics for condition monitoring, as you've seen before, into manufacturing. And so, as we announced this morning and Joe already mentioned, please come and join us in January at CES for our keynote so that you can hear for yourself on how we are fully embracing the power of AI. With that, and in summary, as I said, digital and technology are transforming Caterpillar.
And to make that clear, we have also set some ambitious goals for us for 2030. As you can see on the screen, we want to achieve at least 2 million connected and reporting assets no later than 2030. We want to double condition monitoring PSCs, close $1. We want to increase e-commerce by yet another 50% from where we were last year. We want to achieve at least 500,000 tech-enabled machines. And with that, I mean machines that have at least one or more of our advanced technologies on board, and then we want to triple the number of autonomous trucks. So with that, I hope you now see how in our view, digital and technology are increasingly becoming our key competitive differentiators while we are focused on the biggest customer challenges, making our customers safer, more productive, and even more successful. So with that, I thank you for your time and I'll turn it over to Andrew. Thank you.
Thanks, Bob. Good morning everybody. My name is Andrew Bonfield and I'm going to wrap up the presentation part of today talking about our financial framework. We have delivered strong performance over the last five years and we are going to be investing for profitable growth to drive and to continue to drive strong shareholder returns. Let me start by going through our financial performance over the last five years. As you know, our focus is on profitable growth. That's at the heart of our strategy, always has been and will remain there. That's not growing margins, not growing top line, it's growing profitability. And our measure of profitable growth is OPAC operating profit after capital charge. And a measure of success is to grow absolute OPAC dollars. If you look over the last five years we've grown OPAC dollars by 1.9x .
That's allowed us to generate total shareholder return of 22% per annum over that five-year period. We believe OPAC is a great measure and is very correlated shareholder return. Effectively it is a form of cash flow. Over this time period we've outperformed the S&P 500 index, the S&P 500 capital goods index and the S&P 500 industrials index. And we have delivered on our margin and free cash flow targets. We've met or exceeded those and we've also delivered higher margins and MPD free cash flow over that time period. We've grown services by $10 billion since 2016 and we've outpaced our competitors both on an adjusted operating margin basis and a free cash flow margin basis. On adjusted operating margins, our performance is 420 basis points compared to the competitor group and on free cash flow margin, some 390 basis points higher.
We've achieved structurally higher margins through this time period. You'll recall back in 2017, the company set out a goal of delivering structurally higher margins 3- 600 basis points higher than they were in the 2010- 2016 time frame. That was based on a range of 10%-22% between $42 billion and $72 billion of revenues. Over that time period, we delivered average margin improvement of 480 basis points against those original margins of 2010-2016. So above the midpoint of the range. How have we delivered that? Structural cost reductions have been a key part of it, only adding capacity where justified and focusing on services with their attractive margins. And then free cash flow many of you will have heard me talk about before.
I think one of the things that's most underappreciated about Caterpillar is its ability to generate strong cash flow even in periods of time with declining revenues. The consistency of our cash generation has really been one of the things that I always appreciated when looking at the financials. That strong profitability generates a lot of cash. In 2019 we introduced a free cash flow target of $4 billion-$8 billion. In 2024 we adjusted that to $5 billion-$10 billion. We have generated $40 billion of free cash flow over the six years since 2019. We have averaged more free cash flow over that time period than anybody else in the S&P industrials index. Last year we were number one on performance. Services have grown by 70% to $24 billion in 2024.
7% CAGR attractive for us for a number of reasons. One, it is a more stable source of revenue than original equipment and it has attractive margins. It's been enabled by many of the digital offerings that we've talked about before and obviously continued progress will be used by the digital offerings that Bob just talked about. And we've returned 99% of free cash flow or just under $40 billion to our shareholders between 2019 and 2024. And actually if you go through the third quarter of this year, it's now $45 billion of free cash flow and we've returned just over 100% of that. Our dividend increases have been substantial. You'll recall back in 2019 we grew the dividend by 20% and then set a target of growing the dividend by four successive years at high single digits.
We've managed five high single-digit years since then and on average the dividend has grown by 7.5% per annum between 2019 and 2024. We are very proud of our dividend aristocrat status, and we've grown dividend by 32 consecutive years and then share repurchases. Back in 2019 again, we set the target of being in the market more consistently and to return substantially all free cash flow, which meant we were going to be in the market more on a consistent basis from a share repurchaser's perspective. We've reduced our share count between 2019 and 2024 by 18%. The average per share price we paid is $209 and benefited profit per share by $3 per share. If you take into account what we've actually done since then from this year, the share count reduction is now 21% and the profit per share benefit is closer to $3.50.
Our first quarter ASR this year delivered over eight million shares at an average price of just under $375 per share, and that's just concluded. The importance about our share repurchases is to be in the market consistently. We don't try and market time, we don't try and outperform. What we do try to do though is to beat the volume weighted average price each on average for the year, and that's part of the way we operate using accelerated share repurchases and grid structures as a way of doing that, but that consistency has really rewarded shareholders over this time, so we've delivered in the past and we are very confident about our ability to continue to deliver on our 2030 goals.
We will need to continue though to make investments in the business to achieve those goals and we'll give you a number of measures to track our progress. First we set out and Joe showed you these annual targets. I'm going to discuss each one of those in a little bit more detail with you as we go through. So first let's look at the top line sales and revenues compound annual growth rate of between 5% and 7% through 2030. 2024 will be the base year. We assuming growth across all segments, relatively steady year over year growth rates. We do assume obviously stable economic conditions. That means we don't expect either an acceleration of growth, global growth or a significant deceleration of global growth. So assuming relatively stable conditions, nothing substantially changing from where we are today.
And w e still will grow services, growing services by $3 billion-$30 billion by 2030 and particularly as there's much more opportunity there. And as Bob mentioned, the digital and technology priorities will continue to help us grow services also longer term by actually seeding the field population with more original equipment. We do expect longer term services opportunities as Jason talked about over the period beyond 2030 and beyond. So we are investing. Jason talked about the investment in large engines and expanding Solar capacity. We are also, as Bob mentioned, investing in digital and technology, growing that by 2.5x . Just to remind you that spend, part of that, is in SG&A. The digital spend, part of the technology is a part of the R&D spend that we spend. So it's not the whole of R&D or the whole of SG&A.
We will invest in customer solutions and commercial excellence. So we'll be putting money behind the field to make sure we can actually drive those customer solutions. What the customers want to help us drive top line growth. And we'll continue to invest in sustainability. That's important for many of our customers and obviously we've invested significant dollars behind that and we will continue to do that in the future. Our CapEx spend should be now twice as large in the period 2025- 2030 as it was from 2019- 2024. Very affordable given the strength of the cash flows that we generate. In addition, some of that CapEx spend will be more fully front end loaded, particularly as we look at the Solar and large engine capacity investments.
And as a result of the solar investment, we now expect CapEx for this year to be closer to $2.8 billion than our previous guidance of $2.5 billion. Remember all this investment is designed to help us grow absolute OPAC dollars. That is our measure of winning. And we've updated the margin target ranges. You remember the original range went from $40 billion-$72 billion, margins from 10%-22%. We've taken the range from $60 billion-$100 billion and changed the margin targets from 15%-25%. So still progressive margins. And assuming that we can continue to grow margins as we grow the top line. As Joe mentioned, the pull through we're using for the new margin ranges is around the same as we did for the midpoint of the previous range. Why are we using that pull through rate, you may ask?
Well, first of all, we are investing, so we are investing in capacity, which will have an impact on gross margins, so we will need some headroom there so we won't get as much leverage as we would normally have done. We are investing in commercial solutions. We are investing to make sure we have digital and technology solutions for our customers. We will always continue to look for cost efficiencies. Operational excellence remains at the heart of the strategy and we'll continue to look for opportunities to manage the cost basis most effectively, but keep in mind, always when you think about margins, margins are important. They're a good measure. These targets are set. They're really for investors to be able to measure our performance.
But ultimately, at the end of the day, OPAC generation is our definition of winning because we do believe that is more highly correlated to total shareholder return. And we need to make these investments to grow the top line on free cash flow. The strong profitability we expect means that we actually are changing the range from $5 billion- $10 billion to $6 billion-$15 billion. That reflects the $15 billion reflects the high end of the sales range and margin range. The $6 billion really does reflect a challenged economic scenario. And the only reason we have it there is just because when we look at the dividend, our target is to only pay 60%-65% of free cash flow out as dividends.
Even in a challenging economic scenario, it is really there just as a low base and we would expect to be comfortably above that even if we are making substantial investments in CapEx over the next couple of years. So now let me talk about how this all supports shareholder value creation. Again, the resource allocation framework is really the same as we've shown before. Our focus is consistent. We maintain a strong balance sheet mid-A credit rating which enables Cat Financial to offer competitive financing to our customers. We maintain ample debt capacity for M& A. And just to remind you, M& A is always treated as an exclusion from free cash flow for purposes of shareholder returns. The strategic growth investments will continue to be assessed using the ROE model.
The operational execution model will still be there and we are committed to returning substantially all cash flow to shareholders through a mixture of dividends and share buybacks and the dividend. We believe that we can grow the dividend by high single digits for the next five years and comfortably remain above the 60% of the low end of the cash flow rate, free cash flow range. Obviously that is always subject to board approval, but we are confident that we will be able to continue to grow the dividend for another five years. On top of that, we expect to be in the market consistently on our share repurchases and use that part as well. So effectively you have the positive allocation of shareholder returns helping to drive total shareholder return across the business as a whole.
Let me just give you a little bit of an idea of what we think how the total shareholder return will actually play out over the next five years. This is an illustration, it's not exact, so don't try and measure. It's an illustration of where we think those components that we control in total shareholder return because obviously there's the multiple which we don't have a control over, that's the market. Effectively if you look at it, it's cash returns to shareholders, its revenue and its margin. If you look over the last five years, we've achieved more performance from margins than we have done from revenue growth. That's effectively reflecting performance that we've seen. Obviously the margin expansion has been a really big driver for us over this time period.
However, as we look out, what we do expect is because we're now driving OPAC growth more from revenue rather than from margin expansion, that revenue growth will be a more important driver of our total shareholder return algorithm. And so that's just to illustrate to you why that focus and why we need to make sure we continue to invest in the business to be able to drive that, because that's where we believe we're going to maximize OPAC dollars and drive returns to you. So as we get to the close, just to remind you, we will be giving you new targets, not just the financial targets, but also segment growth targets which will help you to measure our performance against those targets. Some of those will be annual reporting sums like services will continue to be on an annual basis.
Others, obviously, things like the revenue CAGR you'll be able to see on a more quarterly basis and so forth, and obviously new growth you see quarterly, so at the end we are committed to the plan and we are committed to drive profitable top line growth, including services supported by strategic investments. We've updated and expanded our margin, extended our margin target range. We've increased our free cash flow target range. We expect to increase the dividend by high single digits and we remain committed to return substantially all free cash flow to shareholders over time. The future is bright, and with that I'll hand back to Alex.
All right, thanks everyone. We're going to now take our break before the Q and A session. So we'll promptly resume the broadcast at 12:00 P.M. Central Time. All right, if everybody can start to make your way back in the room and close the doors here. Just a couple last-minute logistics before we start Q&A. So we'll take questions here in the room. We'll have mic runners, so if you have a question, please just raise your hand really high and they'll come stand next to you. I would just ask that, try to limit the follow-up questions just because we do have, I think 25 sell-side analysts here that I know are interested in asking a question. So we want to try to give as much equal time.
All right, welcome back to the Caterpillar Investor Day 2025. This is now the Q and A portion of today's agenda. So if you're joining online, there is a way to submit a question through the webcast. There's a question mark icon on the top left. You can click on that and submit questions. We'll try to pull as many of those into the room here today. And with that, we'll kick off with a question. If anybody has a question, please raise your hand h igh a nd we'll get a mic runner to you. Got a few, looks like maybe here in the front first. Jamie.
Hi. Good afternoon. Jamie Cook from Truist Securities. I guess just my first question on power and energy. You talked about doubling, you know, that business by 2030 seems like an aggressive goal, but just trying to understand how much visibility you have. I know you have backlog, but you also have uncommitted backlog. So my guess is there's more visibility than we think. And then my just follow up on that is how are obviously you're adding a lot of capacity. Your peers are adding a lot of capacity. Does that concern you over the long run? Thank you.
Yeah, good. Thank you for the question. We're going to more than double power generation over that period. That was what we put out here today. We have a lot of visibility. I mean, backlog is high. It doesn't take us through the whole period. But in addition to the backlog, we have frame agreements in place with key customers that give us a good line of sight and we also have really strong forecasts from customers through that period as well. So the combination of that gives us really high confidence in making the investments. The other thing we talked about in the presentation was the services impact of some of those higher run hour projects. And that same capacity is going to be needed to serve the services needs not only through 2030, but really well beyond that. So, you know, all things that make us confident in making the investments that we're making.
Good. All right, analyst in front here.
Hi, good afternoon and thanks for taking my question. I was just wanting to go back to maybe the margin side and two sides to this. I guess the first is as you think about your next kind of progression here that you provided on the operating margin, does that include the assumption for tariffs, meaning that's been a little bit of a headwind this year. So as you kind of progress, would you assume that that kind of keeps things toward the lower end or does it already account for that and therefore you can kind of be more in the middle of the range with tariffs and then kind of second, just related to services, given how much more progression or kind of services there is with Prime Power.
Just curious, I guess, why, how much of a benefit is that to the margin profile of the business and is that timeline wise kick in more materially at a different point in kind of the next five years?
So let me just remind you that the actual margin target ranges remain the same up to $72 billion. And as we're not there yet, there is no relief in that for any tariffs. As we said last week, our assumption on tariffs is that once certain there is more certainty and the situation stabilizes. We will take and manage the impact of tariffs as we go forward. So that will be there. But it's the margin ranges up to $72 billion are exactly the same as they are today. No change to that.
And I would say the extension just to add on to that. Right. Is that the similar profit sales pull through it takes into account the investment. I mean, it's a range for a reason. Right. We'll operate, you know we intend to operate in the range. You know we'd love to get towards the higher end of the range but some of the things will get it to move around during the time the investment when the investments come in. We're committed to manage the tariffs over time but we really try to not have that influence what the range is. Right. For the long term.
And I think Jason, there's maybe a question on power gen prime power services opportunity.
Yeah. For the prime power, the high-hour applications that I talked about, it does take a few years to kind of ramp into those services. You know you see some impact initially but as you get multiple years out you get into overhauls and rebuilds which are bigger drivers of the services opportunity. So we'll see some impact, some positive impact through 2030. But the exciting part of that is it's opportunity well beyond 2035. 2030 as we look forward.
Okay, looks like over here Kyle.
Thank you. Kyle Menges from Citi. Two part question thinking about understanding the OP margin slope. A little bit weighed down by some o f the investments you're making. And then also services revenue growth a little bit slower than what it's maybe been in the past. Curious what your confidence is in that op margin range. That slope may be increasing over time and then services revenues also may be re-accelerating as you get through more of these capacity investments.
Yeah, I think, I mean one thing to remember and Andrew can comment on this right from the time we set the operating target margin ranges even at 42- 72 we said it wasn't, you know I think the term was wasn't to infinity and beyond. Right. Wasn't going to be a straight line, particularly the higher we got in there that there would be, you know, some bend to that curve. So, you know, we're comfortable with those margin ranges. We're definitely going to have to cover some investments to grow. As I said earlier, we haven't had to make a ton of investments. Most of the growth we've had has been within our, you know, capacity that we have. So we're excited to make these capacity investments and those have to be taken into account in the margin ranges.
I'll let the team maybe make some comments on services, but you know, we flattened services a little bit this year. We've talked about the rebuild slowing a little bit in mining particularly, you know, confined to coal and what we're seeing in coal and slow some of those parked trucks. But we are still committed to the services growth. You know, I think when we set this goal, you know, at the beginning of the strategy, you know, when Jim came in here, there was some low-hanging fruit which allowed us to kind of make progress, and you know, now we need to drive more adoption of the digital tools that we've seen here.
I think the mix of products and the more growth we have of new equipment out there and the more prime power applications, the more mining trucks we have running, you know, that's definitely going to drive demand for services higher. So, you know, we see this $30 billion we think is achievable. And so we're going to put the strategy work to go get it.
Let me just remind you on the margin targets and those of you here, when we did our Investor Day in 2022, the progressive margin targets were over 40%. At the top end of that range, our gross margins are around 30%. So that gives you an indication of the challenge around delivering margins at that level. And finally, just to say our goal of profitable growth is absolute OPAC dollars, it is not margins. And so if we are able to grow OPAC dollars faster and we go above the margin ranges, there is no problem. And we have done that in the past before as well. So the margin targets are there just to give you a guide. It's absolute OPAC dollars, which is really the most important thing that we measure.
Okay, good question. Over here, looks like Jerry.
Hi, thank you. Jerry Revich, Wells Fargo Securities in power and energy. You folks are in a unique position between turbines and standby generators to have a really good sense for data center plans multiple years out. Can you just talk about what you're seeing in terms of configurations, what percentage of the power are you anticipating to be behind the meter for the data centers based on the plans that the customers have shared? And if you could talk about just the range of outcomes relative to the $16 billion target for power gen, what's the range of outcomes that you're assuming for data centers within that build, please?
Yeah. So as I think about the growth as we move forward in power generation, the standby will continue to be a big part of it. So data centers are going to continue to need standby power. Standby. Standby generator sets when they're connected to utility to provide power. Utilities are gonna need solutions to back up the grid and add capacity. Sometimes that's prime power. Sometimes that's maybe a few thousand hours a year to back up the grid. Data centers, they're kind of early in the evolution of understanding the onsite power needs. We definitely see a pull from them, both engines and turbines. They're building data centers faster than they can get utility connections. And we're excited about that growth. We think that'll continue. But as I think about the opportunity ahead, all parts of power generation really are seeing positive growth moving forward.
Yeah, I mean, this is kind of how I think about that opportunity. We're at the early stages, and I think data center customers and a lot of customers who were trying to build sites that need power are trying to figure out how they're going to get that power. And they're talking to utilities, obviously, I think that's their first choice. And some of them, you know, it's kind of an evolution to what's all going to be utility power with backup standby from us. Now you're seeing some behind the meter stuff, but also some saying, okay, I want temporary prime power. Because the utility and I have said, hey, we'll get to you in four years. And I think, you know, that we'll see some of that type of solution as well. And then we'll see if four years is really.
Four years is four years is longer. Right. I mean, and there's going to be, you know, a certain level of capacity and how those connections go to the utility grid. And we'll just have to see how this plays out. But I think from my standpoint, we're in the early stages of this. It's tough to quantify it. Right now we have a great portfolio to support our customers whichever way they go, which is what we're really excited about.
Yeah. The data we shared on energy demands, electricity demands through 2035, you know, you're thinking 10 years out, along with the growth of data centers in that period. I mean, that's going to support the need for lots of power generation solutions through that time period.
I mean, there has to be transmission too, right? If you're going to go to utility, it's not just, is there utility power available; it's got to get to the right place. So there are a lot of things that go into the equation for customers when they think about, you know, where their site's going to go, where they're going to get their power, what type of equipment do they want and what type of support do they want from us, and we have a great team and that's one of the reasons why we started early with that group. When we talk about commercial excellence and having more direct relationships with them, that's why we started with them. Right. Just to really help them understand what they need and figure out what part of our portfolio makes the most sense for them.
Great. Rebecca, is there a question from Jayram?
Jayram Nathan with Daiwa. I just wanted to follow up on the earlier question with regard to high voltage DC power. Like, do you need to make any changes to your products or invest in your products to kind of enable high voltage DC's as data centers move to that kind of an architecture?
Yeah, so far limited customer kind of pull or customer questions around that. Certainly something that we'll continue to keep an eye on from a technology standpoint. But we're not getting a pull from data centers or utility customers at this point in time to making big, big investments in that space.
I think you were, I think next you had your hand up for a while. So Priyanka, if you can walk up here.
Thanks.
Thank you. Mircea Dobre from Baird, maybe we can talk a little bit about mining and I'm curious to put a finer point on this, understand how you guys are thinking about 2030 here. You're pretty clear as how you think about power gen. Maybe you can be specific and I'm curious as to how you think about the energy transition contributing to higher CapEx towards equipment. Is it just a function of you having the right powertrains available and have it be certified and so on and so forth before we start seeing customers r eally deploying capital in that regard. Thank you.
Yeah, no, it's a great question, you know, and I would say it's evolved over the last few years. I think as mining companies have recognized what it takes to put zero emissions mining equipment on site, they've learned that it's much more than about mobile equipment. It's about the infrastructure that's required to stand the mobile equipment up at site and keep it running. And so as we've talked to mining customers, without a doubt the timeline for most has moved out a bit from where it was a few years ago. There still is definitely interest which is why we're continuing all of our development. As we look at what it's going to take to get real pull, it is going to definitely take an environment where the power and the energy to take the infrastructure.
That investment is made first and then the mobile equipment comes on, and that's why we have to be ready for when that's going to happen. We see our bridging strategies, and I talked a lot about Cat DET today as a great way to get power to site. Not quite have the same kind of power requirements that would be, you know, needed if you had a full battery electric fleet, but that would step you into having a diesel electric fleet that would take your emissions down considerably, start to get the infrastructure on site, and step you through and into that more sustainable and better economic environment. I think until the economics switch such that all of that investment can pay off, you're not going to see a big huge pull, so it has to all match what the customers are needing.
And so it's going to evolve and I think it will be, the solution set will be different depending on where you are in the world and what the cost of electricity is and what the cost of diesel is.
Steve Volkmann, maybe.
Thanks, Alex. Steve Volkmann with Jefferies. I'm curious to think about how you sort of stress tested your investment plans. And I think Andrew, you said that you really weren't expecting much from end market growth here. But if we do have a cycle over the next few years that's a l ittle more robust from an end market. Perspective, would you have to invest more or have you kind of covered that in your current play?
Yeah, I think we, where we've announced the capacity, we obviously know we need more. One of the things that I'm really encouraged about and why we're leaning so heavily into modern manufacturing is I think we can get a lot more out of our assets by leaning into technology and modernizing the facilities that we have. You know, we have some very modern plants. We have some plants that have been around a long time that probably need little work and we see the difference already. And that's before you put you know, technologies like factory digital twins and that we're starting to, you know, just at the early stages of it'd be a great problem to have.
I think, you know, we, we have the ability to invest and I think we're looking at a runway of and that's one of the reasons why in the, even in the interim, the power and energy investments we have. Right. We have made the investments based on what we know, but the runway is such that if we need to increase it, we can and still I think we can react. So that would be an amazing, you know, point for us to get to is where we're investing more capacity because we have line of sight to that right now. I think we're going to try to get more efficient. I think we have the headroom to do that.
Chad here at the front.
Hi, Charles Dillard from Bernstein. So my question's on the prime power opportunity in data centers. So as you talk to your customers, what are they saying about the mix between turbines versus reciprocating engines? Is there a preference in terms of just profitability for Cat? And then also what's the role of standby power in that environment? And then lastly, as you talk about your 50 GW of capacity, how does that split between Solar and reciprocating? Thank you. Yeah, so that was a lot of questions.
So if we think about how we're serving the prime power needs, that was a big part of your question and what we're hearing from customers. I shared some examples today across the range and right now I think they're still in some ways trying to figure out what designs are really optimal for a prime power data center. We're in the early innings as we mentioned. Joule's a great example. They're using engine-based generator sets that helps them get power really quickly and we're happy to be able to help them do that. They're also doing something which is pretty unique as well is they're using some of the heat from the engines to actually cool the data center. So the overall efficiency of that site will be higher and it's going to help their economics.
So we're really excited to see how that turns out as we implement that technology with them. We have customers that are doing turbines only and they think that's a good solution for what they're trying to accomplish. And then we have customers like Williams that I mentioned that have a combination of both. Some of it depends on the speed that they're looking for. Some of it depends on the load profiles that they're trying to serve and so it's kind of a speed and technology and economic equation for all of them. And the good thing about our situation is we can serve all of them depending on how that turns out. When they do the math as we look forward again, I kind of go back to the capacity increases two times for large engines, two and a half times for turbines.
And we'll use that not only for power generation, but also, a big part of that's the natural gas compression business, both with engines and turbines. And we see growth there and we'll use the capacity to support that as well. So I think, you know, a little bit to be determined on what the best solution is. But we're really well positioned because we have the ability to provide multiple different kinds of technical solutions to help them be successful.
Rob here in the front.
Hi, sorry. Also on powergen, should we think about the recip side capacity expansion being kind of more or less complete in 2027? You mentioned the power capacity comes online f or turbines and receipts through 2030. And then one thing that surprised me. Was the mention of downstream of refining? I don't know whether the Titan 350 i s bringing you into LNG trains or hat that exactly means, but it sounds new to me.
Yeah. In terms of the timing. So the 50 gigawatts will be online by 2030. So kind of set the target there. The engine capacity is moving faster. We started that earlier, but also bear in mind we upped it along the way. If you think back to the journey that we've been on, we started at a level, we got more customer feedback and we actually upped the target for capacity. Along the way. We'll see some nice steps in terms of capacity increase. 2026, 2027. We'll still be able to continue to increase a little bit. Beyond that, the turbines will be a little bit more backloaded, but in combination we'll have a meaningful capacity increase year- over- year through the decade. Your second question, when it comes to downstream, you know, those larger power blocks just really help us.
We didn't have a turbine that was big enough for some of those downstream applications and it just helps us get in the game to be able to serve them a lot of its power for their facilities in the downstream.
Great. I think Mike over here is next.
Mike Feniger, Bank of America. Thank you for taking my questions. Just two questions. The first one, I realize you guys have the goal of doubling power gen revenue, which is great with the fact that you're doubling the capacity. I'm just curious if the pricing per megawatt you know, from the base case 2024 out to 2030 is are we assuming that's unchanged? Is there any reason why CAT wouldn't also be benefiting from the pricing dynamics that we're hearing in the market out there? Because doubling power gen revenue makes sense, but is it really just units or is there some pricing dynamic that we should be considering that could also be under the fold and does that flow in more in 2027, 2028?
And the second question just on the, on the financial targets, Andrew, the pull through we talked about in line with, you know, Cat's historical 34%-35% is that for the overall company or do you try to drive that by division? So where I'm asking is is there a view, hey, E&,T is going to have much higher flow through which allows maybe construction to drive OPAC dollars a little differently or is the goal for all divisions to kind of be marching in that range or is there a mix that kind of gets us overall to that 34%-35%. Thanks everyone.
You want to start with the second part when we revisit the pricing?
Yeah. So on that, you know, you will recall back in 2017 we did have margin targets by business segment. I think that tends to reduce the amount of flexibility that we have to operate efficiently as a customer company. A couple of things back to Steve's point a little bit. Not all end markets are operating in exactly the same way. And so when you're looking for a multi-year guideline, you really have to think about it in terms of there may be one business segment which is driving faster than the other one at that point in time. So it gives you that flexibility which is why there's the range and also at the same time wanting to make sure that we have sufficient capacity to invest in the appropriate areas that we need to continue to drive those OPAC dollars.
So it's really about having that. And that way, that's the way we've tended to look at it rather than trying to build it up, segments specifically, then it becomes very complex and then becomes much, much harder to manage because obviously the different businesses are at different stages of growth rates and so forth. So it's that way we.
Yeah, and I think maybe just to add on that before Jason jumps in here on pricing. Right. I think it's the wrong way to look at it to try to say, okay, each of the segments having a similar margin profile. Right. I mean there's a ton of synergies we drive in our business through the three segments. But I would look at it more as, hey, we intend to have the best in class margins in power and energy compared to power and energy competitors and players right in that industry. Mining and RI in there and construction. So, you know, we're in different dynamics in different industries. They have different margin profiles just frankly in the segments and the industries that they play in. So, you know, the mix of all that, we try to manage it into the overall margin profile, but there'll be some puts and takes depending on which segment is, you know, driving some of that growth.
Jason, go ahead on.
Yeah, and I think when it comes to pricing, certainly both the capacity and pricing come into the equation. As we think about the future, we'll look at the market dynamics as we always do on a year over year basis individually within the businesses, you know, not in aggregate. We'll look at that in terms of power generation or power and energy in total and make those decisions. When pricing makes sense, we'll take pricing along the way.
We've been doing that right. Pretty regular price increases. You can see it in our results now in the segments. It's much different. You know, power and energy is not seeing similar types of, you know, merchandising programs that we have going on in CI just because of the competitive nature of the business. We have escalators in our frame agreements that go out. I think also you have to keep in mind where our margins are relative to we've had strong margins, right. We'll continue to take price where we can, but maybe where you're seeing some bigger increases, the margins weren't quite to where our level has been. I think, you know, once we get into 2026 and we start reporting as power and energy, you'll see a little bit of that strength come through in those margins as well.
Let's take one question from online. So, is your CI target for 1.25x sales growth in line with your expectations for the overall industry growth or is it ahead of it, behind it?
If you look at the materials there we talked about a few minutes ago, that 1.25x sales to user growth, we said on the slide they're outpacing the industry. So when you take the commercial piece that we're reshaping in addition to moving forward with the technology piece, and then those integrated solutions I believe is going to allow us to outpace the industry and achieve that 1.25 sales to user growth.
I think, Ada m, you had your hand up for a while here.
Great, thanks. Adam Smith from Barclays. I wanted to start actually on mining. So you talked about expanding across the value chain. Is that limited to digital solutions? And then how do you think that Cat can play in the crushing million p rocessing parts of that area within RI? And the second part is also our RI related within the new segment that includes transportation are all the businesses is OPAC positive?
Okay, I'll start with the vision of our Precision Mining. So while we are always looking at M and A opportunities for physical assets, most of what I talked about is a digital technology solution that allows insights that allows data to flow across all of those sectors of the value chain such that it provides efficiency overall in the operation. So it is primarily a technology investment. RPM is the first of the technology investments we intend to do in this space. Some will be organically developed, but we are looking at additional opportunities to connect that end to end value chain to help miners be more productive. So that's kind of how we're thinking of it now. But we're always assessing whether there's something physically we could do.
There's a lot in the sensor technology space that we're also looking at that could help to aid in the digital space even more moving forward. And then as far as OPAC margins, we don't disclose that by the individual subsets of where we're at now. You'll be able to have some visibility to that when we restate in 2026 as rail moves over into RI.
We'll recast in April next year so you'll see the rail business move across. That will have a positive impact on energy and transportation power and energy margins. Negative on RI. But remind you that we've always used the O&E model to use a way of actually looking at what we call the so-called challenge businesses which is about assessing their ability to perform and actually achieve OPACC positivity. And that includes the present value of future part sales. And remember rail also includes a very strong services business. So that is something we will continue to evaluate and continue to operate. And remember we have disposed of businesses where we don't see the ability to do that. We haven't disposed of Rail.
You know I would just say when you're looking at profitability of RI, right? And this is a testament to Denise's leadership and her team and what they've done. Look at the revenue of RI now relative to when it was in its super cycle in 2012. And look at the operating margin profile of the business. So Denise and her team done an amazing job with the profitability in that business.
Okay, can you raise your hands up, Kristen?
Hi, Kristen Owen from Oppenheimer. I wanted to come back to the 1.25 increase in use in your construction business. You highlighted a lot of white space globally or white space globally. So how much of that growth is coming through just geographic expansion? And when we think about the dealer network that's necessary to support that, what kind of investments do you need in the dealer network? My follow-up question is related to the technology there. So we've seen a lot of competitive technologies come into the construction space, particularly on the digital side. Would you look to get more acquisitive there to help the end-to-end solution in construction? Thank you.
Okay, so geographic, a little bit of the digital piece and then also kind of that technology piece. So geographic first, obviously with that customer back reshaping of the commercial organization, we've got those two individual senior vice presidents and their organizations focused on that core and their growth customer solutions region. So obviously equal focus around the globe, customer centric, bringing that back. Like I said earlier, in that core region and the growth region, customers have quite a few different needs in terms of how they buy, acquire, how much they rent, how much they don't rent, how they want to rent and when. Also how they get paid is oftentimes very different. How they do the work is different. So we got unique customer requirements within each one of those regions. So we have a tremendous opportunity in both. Right.
The growth regions with the urbanization and housing demands, infrastructure that's needed there. Obviously the expansion of the compact construction equipment line and further infrastructure expansion, as you've seen in not just the United States, but other parts of those growth regions is very healthy. So across we feel very, very good about that and both contributing to the 1.25. Now the digital piece and what we're doing.
Maybe before you go to the digital, I think the question is also, do we need more investment in our dealers? I think that's the key point is our dealers are independent companies or independent from Caterpillar. We have about 150 of them worldwide. Apart from the few embargo countries where we're not allowed to do business. We are present in pretty much any country in the world already today and our dealers have been very successful. I mean it's a key part of our competitive advantage and we're working very closely with them to make sure they invest alongside with us to make sure we achieve the growth goals that we laid out today.
I think the changes here are going to be well received. Right? I mean today where we can give attention, like having a regional team that's more focused on dealers and have boots on the ground with them to understand their unique needs. Like Tony said, really getting after the unique needs. Sometimes I think maybe we've been taking a solution that works in a lot of the world and try to use that in certain parts of the world where it's just, it's just missing the point a little bit. And so we're going to get a lot closer to our customers this way.
Yeah, and technology is really the same. Same way. One of the big benefits from a technology perspective, because I think you're hinting at that a little bit in your question, is from a Cat perspective. A lot of our technology solutions have taken into consideration the entire customer business. We see a lot of competitors and options come to customers with point solutions and trying to sell the value of that. And more and more the customers are saying, you know, that's just a lot to deal with. I've got these solutions from Cat here, VisionLink as an example that Bob articulated earlier. It covers the end to end. It helps you manage the fleet, it helps you manage productivity, fuel hours, condition of the machine. It's broad and it helps again manage the entire business and that works and plays worldwide from a customer basis. So again, a very worthwhile technology to take out to the customers.
Raise your hands again, Steve.
Thanks. Steven Fisher, UBS. Just on the solar capacity expansion, to what extent is that really focused on the large turbines or will that be across the product set there? And then from a competitive perspective within this sort of power gen opportunity set, I mean clearly there's so much demand right now. Capacity is super constrained. I guess I'm curious to what extent there are actually competitive processes that are going on to win this work today. And then how do you see that competitive landscape evolving as the capacity comes o n over the next several years?
Yeah, good question. So first on the capacity increase bias towards the larger turbines, but not exclusively a Titan 350. Across the entire Titan family, we'll see increases. The Titan 130 as an example has been a great product for prime power and prime power data centers. So that really that whole Titan family, we will respond. It's going to take a lot of work in the supply base to do that in addition to ramping up in our own facilities. And we've got really good plans in place to do that.
We see that whole range of turbines really being helpful to customers, either mobile in some cases in the bridge solution that Joe mentioned or the permanent solutions that they're going to use for decades to come with the different turbine solutions. In terms of competitiveness, I mean, time will tell certainly with the close relationships we have with customers. You know, we're there with them to help them plan and meet the needs that they have. We also provide product to energy companies that are kind of there helping, also helping those customers whenever they need power, even in the short term or the long term.
Yeah, and we will think about that as always competitive. Right. We want to take care of our customers and not have them buy our equipment just because we have the available equipment. We want them to buy our equipment because we have the best products, services, solutions to meet their needs and solve their problems. And I think that's why they're going to continue to come to us. So we view it as competitive the whole time.
Yeah. You think about our legacy with Solar Turbines and particularly serving oil and gas customers, you know, our strengths are durability, reliability, really strong services support, you know, making sure that that uptime is always there. And you couple that with the Titan 350 which has really exceptional efficiency on top of all those characteristics and we've got a great value prop for customers looking for.
That'll shine in the tour this afternoon? Hopefully. Yeah, it'll ask some questions about it.
Tami.
Good afternoon, this is Tami Zakaria from JPMorgan. I wanted to ask for some help to build our models. How should we think about the three segments as it relates to the 5%-7% CAGR through 2030? Is P and E growing above that, but RI and CI growing below? And related to that, now that we have multi-year numeric targets, do you plan to give specific sales and margin guidance in terms of numbers as you think about 2026?
Yeah, so we'll get to what we do on guidance in, in January as, as per our normal process in that regard. I mean obviously as Alex mentioned, we will go, he will give you a more detailed modeling session. But obviously if power and energy is growing faster than the 5%-7% range, obviously then that implies that the other segments are growing slightly lower than that. The good point about this is all the segments are growing. That's the most important thing from our perspective and there's opportunities and all. We are not a one-trick pony just relying on power and energy or electric power. There are lots of opportunities in our other business segments and that's that breadth of the portfolio that we continue to talk about, which actually helps Caterpillar continue to drive and maximize shareholder value.
Yeah, I wouldn't expect a significant change in, you know, our quarterly type of guidance and things that we give, you know. We gave you guys a lot more metrics today to really give you a guide for how we're thinking of the business strategically over the long term, and we'll update you those Andrew said in his presentation, you know, pretty regularly and you'll be able to see it yourselves in the results, but we're pretty confident in strategy and we're excited about the opportunities we have in all three of the segments.
Saba, great, thanks.
Saba Khan from RBC. Just a question on sort of the d igital side and getting more units connected o ver the last few years, while it's h elped individual repair events, have you seen a notable uptick in rebuilds at all now? The customers are more embedded in your system, and then secondly, on construction side, significant uptick in spend globally, I think you pointed out. I guess when you look outside your core markets into the more growth ones, do you feel the equipment and t he offering you'll have out there will be well suited for what some of t hose markets outside sort of North America might need? Thanks.
Yeah, I can maybe start on the, on the first one. It's clear if you think of, of turning unplanned surprises into planned events, I mean, making sure you help customers avoid downtime. We have a keen focus on helping customers identify the optimal time for an overhaul or rebuild. I mean it helps avoid a big repair that is unplanned and at a time that is not convenient while maximizing the life of the piece of equipment. So a lot of our modeling and digital models we're building are focused on exactly those rebuilds and helping customers. I mean, I'm sure Denise and Tony and Jason can comment on it, but it's also been one of the key drivers of our services growth in the past years has been that focus on rebuilds.
Yeah, and I would say, I mean I mentioned it, we're seeing some customers rebuild, you know, four, five, six times up to, you know, what traffic traditionally would have been like an 80,000 hour unit. Retirement now is extended out to 200,000 and they've had to rebuild along the way in order to do that. The nice thing is that our machines are built to do that and that the ability to do that depending on whether you have a lot of CapEx or you want to use OpEx, it really depends on the situation that they're in. And then the life of mine also comes into play. So, you know, those decisions continue to be made depending upon the situation.
The one thing that I think will be an enabler though for future replacement will be the advent of technology and adding a lot of technology on new machines. You certainly can retrofit technology, but there are limits to that. And so as we start to see the advent of really wanting a lot of technology on machines, you're going to have to build new or buy new.
And we'll see that trend happens. Because RI has a very strong rebuild story, CI has a very strong rebuild story too. It's not uncommon for these machines in CI to have multiple rebuild lives too, just as extensive as you see in RI. So RI and CI have a lot in common from a rebuild perspective and that services opportunity. Now your second question was just to make sure I'm clear on it. Is that product readiness for the core and the growth market and are we prepared to do that? So this goes back to the point presentation material, right? Getting closer to that customer, having those commercial organizations out with the customer, and understanding what they want from a product, services, technology perspective.
And we've been doing that for some time now, and the products are definitely tailored to their unique needs. In fact, fairly different needs in each one of those regions. So the XE models that we've got out there, the most technologically advanced, productive, fuel efficient machines in the industry, generally serving the high, high productivity demands that could be in either region. A lot of times it's more core, but not always. In addition, you've got more of a mainstream, not necessarily as advanced technological capability, et cetera, more for your mainline job. That can also occur in the core in the growth region. So we've got that tier of products available for whatever solution those customers want. And as you've seen, we've had really good experience with that, with the customer base obviously as recently as this year in the results.
Yeah, I'm confident we have the right products and dealer reach to serve the growth markets. Right. I mean if the question though is if a customer is solely making it on first cost and price of the machine, then that's probably not going to be us. Right? That's not our brand. So. But there is a significant amount of the customer base, to Tony's point, that I think we have the right offerings, the right dealer support and by listening to them and understanding what their unique challenges are, we're going to be the company of choice for them.
Mike, up here.
Hi, Mike Schliske of D.A. Davidson. A couple of quick resource questions. First I wanted to clarify the video you had with the Suncor. Are they paying you per barrel or per hour in the contract? Is that, is that going to be common going forward? I kind of want to ask about risk. Whether you're going to be taking on weather risk now or risk that there's no oil in the actual sand, just what are the structures about on those contracts going forward? And then secondly on RPM, could that software that they have be used across construction or other areas that Caterpillar works with in the future? Or Joe, is that an area you might want to consider making another M&A deal helping your construction customers plan their projects? Thanks.
Both really good questions. So the initial agreement with Suncor is a cost per hour agreement, but we're working towards a cost per barrel or cost per ton agreement. So it is something that's in evolution and we're continuing to expand our relationship with Suncor. They've been a great partner to look at. How do we really. And we talked about aligned incentives but how do you make sure that what we're doing to improve our performance at site is actually helping them be more successful and so tying that into things that you can control but that you still have aligned, you know, an alignment around. Moving on to your second question which is rpm.
There's quite a bit in the suite that RPM provides around asset management that we can leverage for contracts that we have with customers that allow us to really have visibility into not only how much it costs from a maintenance perspective and work order management with our dealers, but also really allow us to optimize when we're replacing components. So they do have a fairly large suite of what we call asset management tools that complement. They don't duplicate what we do with our condition monitoring tools that as we continue to build out our engines for engineering, advanced analytics will really allow us to unlock the value for both mining and for construction products.
Yeah. And think about that construction. Think about that RPM video and think about the technology and AI work that Bob talked about also. Take that and the planning to plan the job. That's kind of what RPM was about. Right. And put that on a construction job. I was on a recent job where it was a very large job, multi-warehouse location where they had a pretty big cut and fill. They had to do soft underfoot conditions actually over a part of it, former landfill, and they had shot rock, a very complex job site. And they walk up to that thing and go, how are we going to do this? Yeah.
What's the key building block for Precision Mining?
That's the answer, is how to plan that job out. Because that's the question they have every time they walk up to these bigger, complex jobs. If we can help them do that, more efficient, lower TCO, more profitable, better sustainability from a customer profitability perspective.
So I think that's a key message is a key building block for Precision Mining. But we see a lot of opportunities to apply it in other places and applications as well.
Yeah, because watch construction jobs. I'm sure you've watched some of the bidding and things. You see more and more jobs in that billion dollar range. In fact, quite a few more jobs in that $2 billion range. Those are big jobs. Those jobs that size require perhaps pretty detailed planning, which again, anything that RPM can do, we can borrow from that knowledge. Of course, the tools that Bob talked about, you combine those two together, you get a great solution.
Just a reminder, RPM is not closed, so we're still seeking regulatory approval. So we'll wait for that to all close before we get too far into it. So I think we're right at time. I'd like to give maybe this stage to Joe to close us out, some final thoughts and then we'll close the podcast.
Juan, I appreciate everybody that joined us online today and those of you who made the trip here to see us in person. I hope you again get a chance or had a chance to see the tech stations. I think you're going to really enjoy the tour at our DeSoto Solar Turbines facility. You know, we have, this is a really exciting time and I know my teammates up here and I, we've been anxious to get to this date to tell our story. I've been working on this a really long time. At the same time, we have amazing momentum in the business. We have tremendous growth opportunities in all three of the segments. And you know, we're going to make the investments we need to make in capacity.
We're going to make it in digital and technology to differentiate ourselves and we're going to continue to drive OPACC dollars, which we think will result in strong total shareholder returns moving forward. So we really appreciate your interest and you taking the time to come see us today. And we look forward to. Hopefully we'll talk to you in our normal cadence, but hopefully see some of you at CES and then again at CONEXPO as the guys talked about today. So thank you very much. Alex, back to you.
Thanks, Joe. Thanks to the full EO for your participation. We will have the slides, a transcript and a full replay on investors.caterpillar.com. And that concludes our broadcast for today.
Thank you, everyone.