Good morning and happy holidays, everyone. Welcome to our Business Update Conference Call. I'm Arnold Donald, President and CEO of Carnival Corporation & plc. Today, I'm joined telephonically by our Chairman, Micky Arison, as well as by David Bernstein, our Chief Financial Officer, and by Beth Roberts, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you all for joining us this morning. Now, before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I must refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release. What a difference a year makes. We are clearly on our way back to full cruise operations, with 50 ships now serving guests as we end the fiscal year. That's up from just one ship one short year ago. We've already returned over 65,000 crew members to our ships.
Since resuming operations, over 1.2 million guests and counting have sailed with us. Now, we've achieved that while delivering an exceptional guest experience with historically high Net Promoter Scores. These are strong accomplishments, especially in light of the uncertainty we faced just one year ago when vaccines were not yet available and effective protocols to mitigate the spread of the virus were still evolving. Today, our team members and the vast majority of guests have received vaccines, and many have received boosters. We have established effective protocols for COVID-19 and its variants, enabling occupancy to progress toward historical levels. In fact, occupancy at our Carnival Cruise Line brand, which currently operates itineraries that are most similar to its normally published itineraries, are now approaching 90%, and that's after the impact of the variants on near-term bookings.
Again, Carnival Cruise Line continues to outperform with both occupancy and pricing strength. Even at this early stage as a company, we are now generating meaningful cash flow at the ship level to date and growing, helping to fund start-up costs for the remaining fleet. Total customer deposits have grown by over $1.2 billion from the prior year-end level as our booking position continues to build and to strengthen. Importantly, we ended the year with $9.4 billion of liquidity, and that's essentially the same liquidity level as last year. With significantly improved cash flow generation ahead as the aforementioned ship operating cash flows and customer deposits continue to build.
With 68% of our capacity now in operation and the remainder planned by spring, we are well-positioned for our important summer season, where we historically have the lion's share of our operating profit. Throughout 2021, we said that we expected the environment to remain dynamic, and it certainly has. Of course, agility has been a key strength of ours, and we continue to aggressively manage to optimize given this ever-changing landscape. As we have demonstrated through the Delta\ variant and now with Omicron, we have navigated near-term operational challenges. While the variants and their corresponding effect on consumer confidence have created some near-term booking volatility, our book position has remained resilient, and in the case of Delta variant, already recovered. Importantly, these variants have not had a significant impact on our ultimate plan to return our full fleet to guest operations in the spring of 2022.
It is clear we have maximized our return to service in 2021. We have positioned the company well to withstand the potential volatility on our path to profitability. At the same time, we have not lost sight of our highest responsibility and therefore our top priority, which is always compliance, environmental protection, and the health, safety, and well-being of everyone. That's our guests, people in the communities we touch and serve, and of course, our Carnival family, our team members shipboard and shoreside. To that end, we've achieved many important milestones along the way in our return to service. For example, broadening our commitment to ESG with the introduction of our 2030 sustainability goals and our 2050 aspirations, and that's building on the successful achievement of our 2020 goals. Increasing our ESG disclosure by incorporating SASB and TCFD frameworks in our sustainability report.
Bolstering our compliance efforts with the addition of a new board member with valuable compliance experience, a strong addition to our board of directors and our board compliance committee. Improving our culture through emphasizing six essential behaviors and incorporating them into our ethos through training and development and through everyday real-time feedback. As we are already among the most diverse companies in the world, with a global employee base representing over 130 countries, we are focusing our efforts on diversity and inclusion at every level and in all areas of our operations.
Of course, there are many more operational milestones, such as reopening our eight owned and operated private destinations and port facilities, Princess Cays, Half Moon Cay, Grand Turk, Mahogany Bay, Amber Cove, Cozumel, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, and Barcelona, all delivering an exceptional experience to over 630,000 of the 1.2 million guests since resuming operations. Welcoming nine new more efficient ships across our world-leading brand, including Mardi Gras, powered by LNG. Mardi Gras is nothing short of a game-changer for our namesake brand, Carnival Cruise Line. Premium brand Holland America Line introduced the new Rotterdam, sister ship to the very successful Koningsdam and Nieuw Statendam. Princess welcomed guests aboard a new MedallionClass ship, Enchanted Princess, and will welcome another new MedallionClass ship, Discovery Princess, early next year.
Ultra-luxury brand Seabourn will welcome Seabourn Venture with its world-class expedition team and its spectacular 360-degree view submarines. For the U.K., we successfully introduced Iona, also powered by LNG. For Germany, we shortly take delivery of our sixth LNG-powered ship, AIDAcosma, sister to the also highly successful AIDAnova. For Southern Europe, Costa Firenze and LNG-powered Costa Toscana will replace the exit of several less efficient ships. Now, these new ships, Mardi Gras, Iona, Costa Toscana, have joined AIDAnova and Costa Smeralda to be the only five, and with the addition of AIDAcosma shortly, the only six large cruise ships in the world currently powered by LNG, demonstrating our leading-edge decarbonization efforts. Now, while the utilization of LNG is a positive step for the environment, since LNG is inherently 20% more carbon efficient, it is not our ultimate solution.
We have announced our net zero aspirations by 2050. Now, where there is no known answer to zero carbon emissions in our industry at this time, we are working to be part of the solution. We have and expect to continue to demonstrate leadership in executing carbon reduction strategies. We are focused on decreasing our unit fuel consumption today, reducing even the need for carbon offsets. Our decarbonization efforts have enabled us to peak our absolute carbon emissions way back in 2011, and that's despite an approximately 25% capacity growth since that time. While today, based on publicly available information, we believe we are the only major cruise operator to peak our absolute emissions, our entire industry is moving in the right direction.
As a company with a 25% reduction in carbon intensity already under our belt, we are well-positioned to achieve our 40% reduction goal by 2030 and are working hard to reach that deliverable ahead of schedule. Now, in addition to our cutting-edge LNG efforts, we have many other ongoing efforts to accelerate decarbonization. To name just a few, they include itinerary optimization and technology upgrades to our existing fleet at an investment of over $350 million in areas such as air conditioning, waste management, lighting, and of course, the list goes on. We are actively increasing our shore power capabilities. Greater than 45% of our fleet is already equipped to connect to shore power, and we plan to reach at least 60% by 2030.
Now, we helped develop the first port with shore power capabilities for cruise ships, leading to the development of 21 ports to date and counting. We are focused on expanding shore power to our high-volume ports around the world. That includes Miami, Southampton, England, and Hamburg, Germany. To ultimately achieve net zero emissions over time, we are investing in research and development, partnering on projects to evaluate and pilot maritime-scale battery and fuel cell technology, and working with classification societies and engine manufacturers to assess hydrogen, ethanol, as well as bio and synthetic fuels as future low-carbon fuel options for cruise ships. Also, these efforts, combined with the exit of 19 less efficient ships, are forecasted to deliver, upon returning to full operation, a 10% reduction in unit fuel consumption on an annualized basis. Now, that's a significant achievement on our path to decarbonization.
Our strategic decision to accelerate the exit of 19 ships left us with a more efficient and a more effective fleet overall, and it's lowered our capacity growth to roughly 2.5% compounded annually from 2019 through 2025. Now that's down from 4.5% annually pre-COVID-19. While capacity growth is constrained, we will benefit from this exciting roster of new ships spread across our brands, enabling us to capitalize on pent-up demand and drive even more enthusiasm around our restart plan.
We enjoy a further structural benefit to revenue from these enhanced guest experiences, new ships due to the richer mix of premium-priced balcony cabins, which will increase 6 percentage points to 55% of our fleet in 2023. Of course, as we mentioned before, we will also achieve a structural benefit to unit costs as we deliver these new, larger, more efficient ships. Coupled with the exit of 19 less efficient ships, it will help generate a 4% reduction in ship-level unit costs going forward, enabling us to deliver more revenue to the bottom line. Upon returning to full operations, nearly 15% of our capacity will consist of these newly delivered, larger, more efficient ships, expediting our return to profitability and improving our return on invested capital. We are clearly resuming operations as a more efficient operating company.
We'll use our cash flow strength to reduce our leverage on our path back to investment-grade credit. Last quarter, we discussed the initial impact of the Delta variant. We indicated we saw an impact on near-term booking volumes in the month of August. Booking volumes have since accelerated sequentially and returned to pre-Delta levels in November. As we said we would, we maintained price despite the disruption, achieving 4% higher revenue per passenger cruise day in our Q4 than the Q4 of 2019. In fact, the Carnival Cruise Line brand, where we, as I mentioned, are able to offer more comparable itineraries to those in 2019, experienced its second consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth for PCD, while improving occupancy with nearly 60% of its capacity return to service.
Now that's a testament to the fundamental strength and demand for our cruise product, especially when you consider this was accomplished without the benefit of a major advertisement. We expect to build on this momentum with the brand's announcement just last week on its Funderstruck campaign, engineered to highlight the joy and fun of a Carnival Cruise. That advertising campaign is launching over the holidays, including activations on Christmas Day and Times Square on New Year's Eve in time for our Wave season. Turning to something that's very present in the news today, the Omicron variant. We have also experienced some initial impact on near-term bookings, although it's difficult to measure. That said, we have a solid book position and intentionally constrained capacity for the first half of 2022. With the existing demand and limited capacity, we remain focused on maintaining price.
Bookings continue to build for the remainder of 2022 and well into 2023, and we are achieving those early bookings with strong demand. In fact, pricing on our booked position for the back half of 2022 improved since last quarter, and that's despite the Delta variant. The current environment, while choppy, has improved dramatically since last summer. As the current trend of vaccine rollouts and advancements in therapies continues, it should improve even further by next summer. Looking forward, we remain on a path to consistently deliver cash flow from operations during the Q2 of 2022 and generate profit in the second half of 2022. Importantly, we believe we have the potential to generate higher EBITDA in 2023 compared to 2019, given despite our modest growth rate, additional capacity and our improved cost structure.
Throughout the pause, we have been proactively managing to resume operations as an even stronger and more efficient operating company to maximize cash generation and to deliver double-digit return on invested capital. Once we return to full operations, our cash flow will be the primary driver to return to investment-grade credit over time, creating greater shareholder value. We continue to move forward in a very positive way. For that, I again express my deepest appreciation to our Carnival team members, both shipboard and shoreside, who consistently go above and beyond.
I am very proud of all we've accomplished collectively to sustain our organization through these challenging times, and I am very humbled by the dedication I've seen from our teams throughout. Of course, we couldn't have done it without the overwhelming support from all of you. Once again, thank you to our valued guests. Thank you to our travel agent partners. Thank you to our home port and destination communities. Thank you to our suppliers and other many stakeholders. Of course, thank you to our investors for your continued confidence in us and for your ongoing support. Once again, we can't wait to welcome everyone back on board. With that, I will turn the call over to David.
Thank you, Arnold. I'll start today with some color on our positive cash from operations, followed by a review of guest cruise operations, along with a summary of our Q4 cash flows. Then I'll provide an update on booking trends and finish up with some insight into our financial position. Turning to cash from operations. I am so happy to report that our cash from operations turned positive in the month of November, ahead of our previous indication, driven by increases in customer deposits and other working capital changes. We all know that booking trends are a leading indicator of the health of our business. With solid Q4 booking trends leading the way, driving customer deposits higher, positive EBITDA is clearly within our sight.
Over the next few months, we expect ship-level cash contributions to grow as more ships return to service and as we build on our occupancy percentages. However, cash from operations and EBITDA over the next few months will be impacted by restart-related spending and dry dock expenses as 28 ships, almost a third of our fleet, will be in dry dock during the first half of fiscal 2022. Given all these factors combined, we expect both monthly cash from operations and monthly EBITDA to consistently turn positive during the Q2 of fiscal 2022. 2022 will be a tale of two halves. While we expect a net loss for the first half of 2022, it makes me feel so good to say we expect a profit for the second half of 2022. Now let's look at guest cruise operations.
During the Q4, we successfully restarted 22 ships. During the month of December, we will restart an additional seven ships, so we will be celebrating on New Year's Eve with over two-thirds of our fleet capacity in service. Our plans call for the remainder of the fleet to restart guest cruise operations by spring, putting us in a great position for our seasonally strong summer period. For the Q4, occupancy was 58% across the ships in service, and that was a four-point improvement over the 54% we achieved last quarter during the peak summer season, despite the slowdown in bookings just prior to the Q4 from the Delta variant. During the Q4, we carried over 850,000 guests, which was 2.5x the number of guests we carried in the Q3.
Our brands executed extremely well with Net Promoter Scores continuing at elevated levels compared to pre-COVID scores. Revenue per passenger cruise day for the Q4 2021 increased 4% compared to a strong 2019, despite the current constraints on itinerary offerings. Once again, our onboard and other revenue per diems were up significantly in the Q4 2021 versus the Q4 2019, in part due to the bundled packages as well as onboard credits utilized by guests from cruises canceled during the pause. We had great growth in onboard and other per diems on both sides of the Atlantic. Increases in bar, casino, shop, spa, and internet led the way on board. Over the past two years, we have offered, and our guests have chosen more and more bundled package options.
In the end, we will see the benefit of these bundled packages in onboard and other revenue as we did during the second half of 2021. As a result of these bundled packages, the line between passenger ticket revenue and onboard revenue is blurred. For accounting purposes, we allocate the total price paid by the guests between the two categories. Therefore, the best way to judge our performance is by reference to our total cruise revenue metrics. For those of you who are modeling our future results based on our planned restart schedule for fiscal 2022, available lower berth days, or ALBDs, as they are more commonly called, will be approximately $78 million. By quarter, the ALBDs will be for the Q1, $14.1 million. For the Q2, $17.8 million. For the Q3, $23 million even.
For the Q4, $23.1 million. Fuel consumption will be approximately 2.9 million metric tons. The current blended spot price for fuel is $563 per metric ton. I did wanna point out that due to the cost of a portion of our fleet being in pause status during the first half of 2022, restart-related expenses, the cost of maintaining enhanced health and safety protocols, and inflation, we are projecting net cruise costs without fuel per ALBD in 2022 to be significantly higher than 2019, despite the benefit we get from the 19 smaller, less efficient ships leaving the fleet. Remember that because a portion of the fleet will be in pause status during the first half, we are spreading costs over less ALBDs.
We do anticipate that most of these costs and expenses will end with 2022 and will not reoccur in fiscal 2023. In addition, we expect depreciation and amortization to be $2.4 billion for fiscal 2022. While net interest expense without any further refinancings is likely to be around $1.5 billion. Next, I'll provide a summary of our Q4 cash flows. During the Q4 of 2021, our liquidity increased by $1.6 billion- $9.4 billion at the end of the Q4 from $7.8 billion at the end of the Q3. The increase in liquidity was driven by the $2 billion senior unsecured notes we issued in October to refinance 2022 maturities. The $360 million customer deposit increase added to the total.
This was the third consecutive quarter we saw an increase in customer deposits. Completion of a loan we previously mentioned, supported by the Italian government with some debt holiday principal refund payments, added another $400 million. Working capital and other items net contributed $300 million. All these increases totaled $3.1 billion, which was somewhat offset by our cash burn of $1.5 billion. Simply our monthly average cash burn rate of $510 million per month times three. It should be noted that our monthly average cash burn rate for the Q4 2021 was better than planned, driven by lower capital expenditures. Turning to booking trends.
Our cumulative advanced book position for the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023 are at the higher end of historical ranges and at higher prices compared to 2019, with or without FCCs, but normalized for bundled packages. This is a great achievement given pricing on bookings for 2019 sailings is a tough comparison as that was the high watermark for historical yields. Booking volumes for the same period during the Q4 of 2021 were higher than the Q3. During the Q4 of 2021, we significantly increased our advertising expense compared to the Q3 in anticipation of the full fleet being in operation in the spring of 2022, generating demand and allowing us to improve pricing on our book position.
However, the Q4 advertising expense is still significantly below our spending in the Q4, 2019. Finally, I will finish up with some insights into our financial position. What a difference a year makes, except for our liquidity. As Arnold indicated, we enter 2022 with $9.4 billion liquidity, essentially the same liquidity level as last year, but with significantly improved cash flow generation ahead as ship operating cash flows and customer deposits continue to build. Through our debt management efforts, we have refinanced $9 billion to date, reducing our future annual interest expense by approximately $400 million per year and extending maturities, optimizing our debt maturity profile.
With our 2022 maturities already refinanced, we do not have any financing needs for 2022. However, we will pursue refinancing to extend maturities and reduce interest expense at the right time. Given our long history of positive, strong, resilient, and growing cash flows, unlike many other industries, in 2023, our focus will shift to deleveraging, driven by cash from operations. We expect to return to investment-grade credit over time, creating greater shareholder value. Now I'll turn the call back over to Arnold.
Thank you, David. Operator, please open the call for questions.
Thank you. If you would like to register a question, please press the one four on your telephone. You will hear a three-tone prompt to acknowledge your request. If your question has been answered and you would like to withdraw your registration, please press the one followed by the three. Once again, to register a question, please press the one four on your telephone keypad. One moment, please, for the first question. Our first question comes from Steve Wieczynski with Stifel. Please proceed.
Yeah. Hey, guys. Good morning and happy holidays. So just wanna be clear about the near-term booking pressure due to Omicron. Is it fair to say that the booking pressure is really just around bookings for the first half of, you know, 2022? What I'm trying to get at is, you know, we wanna be sure that that booking weakness hasn't started to impact, you know, further out bookings. I know it's, you know, it's hard to understand which way Omicron might go, but, you know, would you expect a similar path that you witnessed around Delta, meaning, you know, bookings slowed and then rebounded very quickly as that fizzled out and got out of the media?
Hey, good morning, Steve, and happy holidays to you, man. I think, you know, we have the experience shared in my opening remarks about the Delta variant. You know, we recovered in November completely from that. We'll have to see how this plays out. You know, I think the great news is, it appears, to date, from scientists around the world and medical experts, that while this particular variant is highly infectious, it seems to have less damaging effects on people that contract it, especially those who are vaccinated, and we encourage everyone to be vaccinated and everybody to get their boosters. We have very effective protocols. Again, I think our actual performance, and we had these protocols in place, as you will recall, even before there were vaccines, we had effective protocols with sailings in Europe.
You know, we're amongst the safest form of socializing and travel that there are. To your question on the bookings, at this point, we have not seen any major impact on, you know, the second half 2022, 2023 bookings. It's hard for us to even quantify any impact, although, you know, we're kind of a reflection of overall consumer behavior globally. We're sure we've had some impact. We do see some a little spike in near-term cruise cancellations, but the booking patterns are strong. We have not at this point seen anything, you know, based on limited experience of the Delta variant and how this one seems to be playing out, we're at this time not anticipating any. I hope that answered your question.
Yeah. That's great color. Appreciate that. Then, you know, second question is probably for David. You know, David, you guys have refinanced over, I think you said the number is $9 billion so far, and I'm wondering, you know, how much more you think is available to refinance over the next six to 12 months, and maybe help us understand that, you know, you talked about interest costs for 2022 being around, you know, $1.5 billion, and what that number might actually, you know, look like by the time we get to next year. I'm not here trying to get more detailed guidance out of you guys. I'm just trying to understand the magnitude of how much more you really could go, you know, from here.
Sure. You know, Steve, if you look at our capital structure, the biggest piece that high interest rate debt are the 2L notes that we did in 2020, and those have high nines or low tens in terms of interest expense. There is an opportunity there to do refinancing of those notes, and we'll look for the right time to consider doing that during 2022. That could, on that few billion dollars that's outstanding, lower interest expense even further.
We did give the forecast as or the guidance at $1.5 billion, and depending on the timing of any refinancing and the exact interest rate on what we refinance, there should be a considerable amount of savings going forward. Of course, you know, keep in mind that, as Arnold indicated, we do expect and we believe we have the opportunity for higher EBITDA in 2023 as compared to 2019, and that should begin to drive debt down in 2023 or overall debt levels and correspondingly drive interest expense down. It's a little premature to give guidance, but you know, we do expect lower interest expense in 2023.
Okay, great. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it. Happy holidays again.
Happy holidays.
Our next question comes from Robin Farley with UBS. Please proceed.
Great. Thank you. I saw in your commentary that, you know, pricing for second half of 2022 has gone up over the last quarter. Realizing of course that, you know, Q1 of 2022 is still challenged, can you give us some color? Is there a firming point sometime during Q2 where you see that sort of the nearer term impact sort of stopping and things being firm? You know, is it from sort of May forward or, you know, is there such a firming point, you know, or is it even earlier than May potentially, where you're seeing that the bookings and pricing moving up that you are seeing the second half, but where you can kind of see that point in Q2 where it's firming? Thanks.
Okay. Dave, you wanna take a first shot and-
Yeah, sure. No problem. You know, listen, a lot of the reason we're focused on the back half of the year, and we've talked about the comparisons in the back half and also the first half of 2023, is because you're talking about apples and apples comparisons, relatively speaking. Because the whole fleet is in operation, the itineraries that we're running or are looking, you know, are similar to the itineraries that we ran in 2019. It's an apples-to-apples comparison, and you can see what the booking trends or the pricing trends look like. If you look at the first half of 2022, remember, you know, this is apples and oranges. In 2019, we had world cruises, we had long exotic voyages. You know, our whole fleet was in operation.
That's not true for the first half of 2022. On an apples to apples basis, you know, the comparison doesn't look nearly as good as when you get down to the detail itinerary level. At the detail level, we're very pleased with pricing. I mean, you know, just to give you some comparisons, I mean, look at the Q4. Our total cruise revenue yield per PCD was up 4%. And so overall, we're very, very pleased with the pricing that we're seeing for the whole year. It's just an apples and oranges for the first half.
Okay. Yeah, understood. Thank you. Just for my other question, your commentary about expenses was very helpful thinking about, you know, there are some non-recurring higher things in 2022, and you said, you know, most of those won't recur in 2023. I realize it's way too early for you to, you know, sort of give an expense guidance number in 2023. But is it reasonable to think that the improvement in efficiencies from having sold those 19 ships, that the expense per unit savings from that would more than offset the inflation piece? Which, you know, the inflation piece may, you know, be recurring, but whereas all the other sort of restart and the pause status, all of those expenses. Once those are gone, is it reasonable to think that the savings from those less efficient ships being gone would more than offset any inflation? Thanks.
Hey, Robin. Thanks for the question, and happy holidays to you. You know, obviously we can't forecast what inflation's gonna be and all that, and I know you understand that. What we can tell you is that exiting the ships and the other efficiencies that we are managing to, you know, as I said in my opening comments, put us in a fundamentally lower cost basis. We'll have to see what happens with inflation and so on. Clearly, whatever revenue we're able to generate, and prices look strong now, more of it'll fall to the bottom line because of that. I wouldn't wanna try to predict inflation or anything. We know we're coming out leaner and more efficient, and we'll be better positioned. We're expecting to be in position to deliver more EBITDA in 2023 than we did in 2019.
Okay. Great. Understood. Thank you both. Thanks.
Yeah.
Our next question comes from Jaime Katz with Morningstar. Please proceed.
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.
Hi.
First, I would like to hear a little bit about the timing of marketing spend over the course of the next year, and my guess is that it might be more front-end loaded given the uncertainty around the first half. If you have any comments on the supply chain and what you guys are seeing from a procurement perspective, it would be very interesting to hear that given all of the publicity around such issues in the news. Thanks.
Okay. Sure. On the marketing spend, first of all, again, we're very pleased with the results we've been able to enjoy, especially with the Carnival brand, where the itineraries are more comparable to what they normally would be pre-COVID, without any advertising or very limited. As we get ready for Wave, we are launching campaigns across the brands in anticipation of Wave. Still, you know, less spend than we had, say, in previous years pre-COVID, but a significant ramp up from where we are. We're being very diligent, and that's part efficiency we talked about in looking at how to effect that spend for the greatest impact. We've gotten more efficient in the spend we believe as well. We are starting to ramp up.
Again, you know, the full fleet won't be sailing until, you know, sometime in the spring or whatever. Obviously, we're looking for bookings now in the second half of 2022 and beyond, so a lot of the spend is for that. You know, we'll ramp up and judge as we go what seems to make the most sense and what's really gonna drive, you know, guest behavior. In terms of the supply chain and sourcing question, you know, we're global.
We source from all over the world. There's lots of dynamics everywhere. We've had, you know, single challenges, issue challenges at times, you know, with provisions or procuring particular services in a particular area. Overall, we're able to sail in a great way for the guests, where the guests are having a great time in a way that is compliant and very much in the best interest of public health. We've been able to manage through. Any other color you wanna add, David, on either point?
No, I think you hit the points well. I just did wanna add one point. I was on mute, I apologize. When Robin asked the question about the cost, I just wanted to point out to everybody that by the time we get to 2023, remember, there's four years of inflation there between 2023 and 2019. So just keep that in mind, in addition to the other comments that Arnold made about cost for 2023.
Thank you, guys. Enjoy your holidays.
Yeah, you enjoy yours. Thank you.
Our next question comes from, Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities. Please proceed.
Great. Thank you, everyone. I wonder if you can just help me clarify sort of apples to apples on your commentary on bookings. You said, a dvanced bookings for the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023 are now at the higher end historical ranges. Previously, of course, you had just talked about the second half of next year. When you're talking about the advanced bookings for second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023, is that a combined, you know, 2022 and 2023 together? Or is that for both periods separately? I'm just trying to apples to apples with what you said just the single period last time. Does that make sense?
It does make.
Yeah.
Com-
No, go ahead, David. Go ahead, bud.
Yeah. Well, the reason we labeled the period separately is 'cause we looked at each individually, and each one was at the higher end of the historical range.
Okay
Both individually.
We're gonna look individually. I wanna be clear here, apples to apples. You had said previously back half of next year was at a new historical high, meaning, you know, new historical high, but now it's at the higher end. Is it fair to assume that those bookings for the second half of next year are not quite as high as you had said last quarter? Am I interpreting that correctly? Thank you.
Yeah, you are interpreting that correctly. By the way, nobody really wants to be breaking new records on the advanced booking curve. Because if you wanna properly, the goal is to maximize the pricing and maximize the revenue when the ship sails. Historically, you know, if you're in that great a book position, it's time to raise price, slow down the booking curve. You don't need to be that far ahead. If I told you that we were sold out for the back half of 2022, at this moment in time, you'd tell me we didn't manage it properly, we left money on the table. It's not shocking that we pulled back a little bit and we raised price, and you saw a slowdown in the booking trends.
Fair enough. No, I appreciate the color on that. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Ben Chaiken with Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
Hey, how's it going? Another apples to apples question. Forgive me. When you guys give the forward commentary on pricing, does this adjust for the 19 ships removed, or is it just a gross bookings versus gross bookings previously? If that didn't make sense, I can try a different way. Meaning, does that capture the mix shift, I guess?
Yeah.
No?
Essentially, we're just looking at the fleet in 2019 that existed in all of the bookings. We don't subtract out ships that left the fleet. We're not doing consistent fleet. We're doing today's fleet versus the fleet we had for 2019 sailings. Yes, there is some benefit to, as Arnold said, you know, the newer ships will get a better price point, better mix of cabins and other things. That is benefiting the price over time. They're also more cost efficient, and they generate significantly more EBITDA as well. All you're seeing all of that flow through in the booking trends and ultimately flow through to the cash flow and P&L.
You know, the other thing that's very-
Gotcha.
Another variable are itineraries. We don't adjust for itineraries either. You know, certain itineraries are more higher yielding than others and so on and so forth. Those are normal variances that happen year to year.
Gotcha. That totally makes sense. Thank you. I guess just one other. You guys mentioned several times bundled packages. I guess, are you seeing? I know we're kinda early in the you know, the return to cruise, but are you seeing passengers have an additional wallet once on board as well? Like, are there incremental opportunities to spend?
Absolutely, we're seeing higher spending levels on board. There's no question about that. You know, in some cases, bundling is contributing to that. We've always done. Each brand is different, and over time, there's always been some bundling. There seems to be even more of it, you know, currently than there has been in the past. It appears that when you have these bundled packages, that overall you end up getting, you know, greater yield because there's additional spend. Right now, there's also, I'm sure, just this pent-up demand, you know, where people are anxious to go out and experience things and have a good time. That's also showing up in onboard revenues right now, which are very strong.
Gotcha. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Assia Georgieva with Infinity Research. Please proceed.
Good morning. I had a couple of questions. Arnold, you mentioned in the prepared remarks that the Carnival brand is already at 90% occupancy, which is fantastic news. Given that we have the restart dates for all the ships at this point, they're pretty much fixed. We can be hopeful that there might be upside from higher occupancy levels. Should we think that Princess might be the next brand that is getting to levels somewhat closer to the Carnival brand than possibly Costa? Is that a fair way to look at it? Can I get the upside for market buoyancy?
Yeah, thanks for the question. You know, I think, first of all, you know, we've had a number of shifts on the Carnival brand, even at 100% occupancy, and the trend there is very good. Again, those itineraries are most comparable to the itineraries that existed, you know, pre-COVID. You have, you know, very similar itineraries, going on and just great execution by the Carnival team. In terms of which brand is next, you know, that's pretty complicated. As we bring ships back, we don't bring them back right away anywhere near 100% occupancy. You have to look at the proportion of ships returning to service and when they return to service. You have to look at the itineraries.
We also have different protocols around the world. You know, we have a number of of European sailings that, you know, still have social distancing or physical distancing requirements, and that caps the occupancy in the 60%-80% range, depending on the itinerary and the ship and so on. There are a lot of variables here, and we just have to see, you know, what the situation is around the speed of ramp up, and, you know, what the required protocols are and which itineraries we're gonna be able to bring the ships back into.
You know, with the plans we have, you know, we can kind of predict, but this is a very dynamic situation and has been. Our team has been really, you know, able to adapt to it and execute well. Overall, the trend is positive. You know, the brands will get to where they need to be given their particular circumstances. The overall trajectory, despite the fits and the stops and the speed bumps and potholes and so on and so forth and detours, is positive. Thank you.
You gave me such a great segue into my second question because you mentioned itineraries probably three or four times. I understand that Australia, New Zealand has basically been closed for the winter season. Coral Princess couldn't do her long voyage this summer. I think partly because of Australia, New Zealand being such an uncertain you know embarkation point at this point. Referencing again itineraries and the new LNG ships coming in, Costa Diadema had to replace Costa Smeralda in South America because we don't have enough access to or reliable access to LNG facilities. Given that you're the only cruise company, large cruise company that is operating LNG ships, would you have to participate in building out the infrastructure at places such as Brazil, for example?
Yeah. I think you know we have a strong partnership with Royal Dutch Shell in terms of LNG infrastructure and access, et cetera. Obviously we go beyond that relationship to secure what we need. It's you know when we built the first ship you know when we started building it there was no infrastructure. We made a commitment you know early because of our commitment on environmental front. Now we're very excited to have the six ships with another five coming.
Again, you may have to adjust in the moment here, there or whatever, but overall, you know, we see a clear line of sight on the infrastructure to support good yielding itineraries that are exciting for our guests, you know, with our LNG power ships. Then if absolutely necessary, the ships can use alternative fuel source, obviously. Our intention and purpose is because we built them as LNG, you know, power ships to use LNG.
Would you need to participate further? I'm sorry.
Yeah, go ahead. Yeah, follow. Do we have to participate and help fund or something, the establishment of the infrastructure? We don't anticipate having to help.
Yes.
We don't anticipate having to put capital in ourselves to help establish the infrastructure. We don't. We think there are plenty of players in that part of the business to do that. Timing may be, you know, a little off here or there, but we don't see a need at this point for us to commit our capital to building LNG infrastructure in ports.
Okay, great. Thank you so much, and I'm really glad you've made such a commitment, you know, to a cleaner environment. I appreciate that.
Thank you.
Great holiday season from me as well.
Thank you. Same to you.
Our next question comes from Paul Golding with Macquarie Capital. Please proceed.
Thanks so much. I had a quick question on just structural evolution of the marketplace. David, I think you had mentioned earlier about the mix shift increasing a bit sequentially towards higher end stateroom mix, and I'm wondering if that's something beyond the current order book you're looking to do more long term because you see higher propensity to spend. Should we expect as far as thinking, you know, once we're in a clearer yield environment, should we expect just continued increase in higher end stateroom mix? I have a follow-up on inflation.
Sure. You know, I think what Arnold, in his prepared remarks, talked about, I think it was 5 percentage points higher, 5 or 6 percentage points higher balcony cabins. The mix of balconies in our fleet in the future is higher than the mix historically. A lot of that has to do with the way in which we build ships and the design of ships. We've been able to get effectively more balcony cabins on each and every ship, which will hopefully, we believe, drive yields and satisfaction levels of our guests.
I don't think you're gonna see for the ships we have on order, you know, through 2025, it's all well set. We're beginning to start thinking about future new builds, and we'll analyze that based off of, you know, customer trends and desires, and we'll work those into the plans. You can be sure we'll be thinking about that and making sure that we optimize a return on invested capital over time as a result of what we do.
Great. Then on the cost side, as we think about your commentary on inflation, your thoughts on 2022 fuel costs, should we start thinking more about whether hedging is gonna play a role here, again for your team, you know, versus what was previously not a robust hedging program on your side in the fuel space?
You know, we historically haven't hedged. You know, at this point in time, if that changes we'll let you know. You know, historically, we haven't hedged. We have felt that, you know, over time, you know, that all takes care of itself, and we have some natural hedges with the portfolio we have and, you know, revenues and costs and different currencies around the world. I know you're talking about fuel price hedging, but I'm just saying other than that, we really typically don't hedge.
Other than the LNG, nothing meaningful on mix shift between bunker and MGO and going into the-
I think over time. There's no question that over time, we'll see a lower ratio of MGO, given the fact we're bringing, you know, LNG in, and we have our advanced air quality systems, you know, on the ships, et cetera. The combination of LNG and extended use of advanced air quality systems, we should see a lowering of the requirements on MGO as we go forward. David, you wanna add any additional color?
No, I think that says it well. My blended fuel average for 2022 reflected probably a 10-point drop in the MGO mix from 2021 to 2022.
Great. Thanks so much for that color, and happy holidays.
Yeah, happy holidays. Be safe.
Our next question comes from Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research. Please proceed.
Thanks. I wanted to follow up on occupancy. I think you've mentioned that August was about 59%, so it looks like it was pretty stable throughout your fiscal 4Q. I definitely appreciate that it's a dynamic situation that you alluded to, but how are you thinking about that occupancy build throughout 2022? Do you anticipate it's more linear or more inflecting in the second half? Kind of what's built into the budget as it relates to your profitability assumptions?
I'll start just with a overall comment that, clearly the occupancy trend is really positive. Now when you look at the comparison you just made, there are a lot of dynamics in that. For example, you know, we brought on, as David mentioned, I think in some of his comments, you know, 22 ships or something. Obviously, when you bring the ships on, they're not initially at full occupancy. That's on purpose as we bring them in. That averages down, you know, your occupancy. What we're looking at overall for occupancy trends are, you know, where you have comparable itineraries and ships that have been sailing for a while, what's happening with the occupancy on those ships? That's a very positive message. You have a number of things weighing those occupancy numbers. David?
Yeah. The other thing, keep in mind, that affected the Q4 was the Delta variant in the month of August impacted bookings, many of which were, you know, might have been for the Q4. As a result of that, you know, we had hoped to have higher occupancy in the Q4, but, you know, between the Delta variant and everything else and a few itinerary changes that we had, we were very pleased with the overall 59%. You know, looking forward, I will say it's very difficult to predict exactly, you know, by month or by quarter what the occupancy is going to be. We're in a good booking position, and we're expecting overall the trend to be positive and to see increasing occupancies throughout 2022. I think it'd be premature for us to give some sort of guidance.
Okay. Operator, we have time for one more question.
We have a question from Ryan Sundby with William Blair. Please proceed.
Yeah. Hi, thanks. I had a question around operating procedures. It feels like proof of vaccination and negative test results have been a really effective tool for the industry to lean on here. But I guess given more breakthrough cases really around kind of all live experiences in the past month or so, is that still an effective tool going forward? And when do you need to start considering requiring a booster, which I think a market like France is now requiring?
Yeah. Hey, thanks for the question. You know, I think overall we continue to be informed by, you know, again, the scientists around the world, medical experts. Of course, we continue to act in compliance with whatever the rules are in the destinations and home ports, you know, that we're operating. The bottom line is that, you know, this is a dynamic situation. In the markets where we are requiring vaccination, we require testing everywhere. We require vaccines in most places. We're encouraging boosters. Of course, our crew is vaccinated, and over 10,000 of them have already received boosters and will be, you know, continuing with that. They're tested very frequently, the crew is.
Those protocols have worked and have helped us be amongst the safest forms, as I mentioned before, of socializing and travel of any in the travel and leisure sector. They have worked and they are continuing to work. We'll see how it plays out. We'll follow the science and obviously we'll be in compliance. But right now we are sailing with confidence. As you noted, there are gonna be some cases. There's a far lower incidence of cases right now on cruise than in society at large. We wanna work to continue to ensure that that's the case.
When there are cases, you know, the risk of propagation or spread of the virus has been very effectively controlled to date. As long as, you know, that continues to be the case, we'll continue to sail with confidence. But we'll adjust and adapt to what we need to. I think the most important thing is where we have had cases, in most instances, they're either asymptomatic or minor symptoms. You know, we have not had, you know, lots of cases where people have to be hospitalized or worse. And I think that's important, and that's also an increasing trend in society at large. Hopefully, you know, that trend will continue.
Yeah, that's great to hear. Thanks.
Thank you. Other questions? That was the last question?
That was the last question.
Okay. Hey, look, everyone, thank you. Really appreciate your engagement. Please have a safe and joyful holiday, and we look forward to talking to you guys at the next business update. Thank you very much.
Happy holidays, everyone.
That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation. As such, please disconnect your line. Have a great day, everyone.