Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2022

Jun 24, 2022

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Good morning, and welcome to our Business Update Conference Call. I'm Arnold Donald, President and CEO of Carnival Corporation & plc. I'm joined today telephonically by our Chairman, Micky Arison, who is in Europe, and here with me in Miami, David Bernstein, our Chief Financial Officer, Beth Roberts, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, and as part of our previously announced transition, our Chief Operations Officer, Josh Weinstein. Thank you all for joining us this morning. Now, before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I must refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release. This is my final business update as CEO. While very disappointingly, our share price unfortunately reflects the current market conditions, I am nonetheless very proud of all that the team has accomplished over the last nine years.

I am especially proud of how well we have collectively overcome what seemed like insurmountable obstacles at times these last few years. I remain very excited about our future. With cash from operations now turning positive, we have reached an inflection point and in fact, turned the corner and are headed on a positive trajectory. I am not only excited about, I am also very confident in the future of our company, and I'm looking forward to its continued success. I strongly believe in this team, and we are enjoying a smooth transition. As Vice Chairman, far and away, my number one responsibility will be to support Josh and his management team as they work to build on the current momentum. Josh is a proven executive. He is well-respected throughout the company. He serves in key leadership roles.

He's driven strong business results during his tenure, and he played an integral part in stewarding the company through the global pandemic. Josh's thorough understanding of our industry, of our operations, and our business strategy puts him in a strong position to lead the next phase of our company's journey. With his vision, intensity, and core values truly aligned with those that characterize our company, I cannot think of anyone better suited for this role than Josh. Now turning to our business results. It is reassuring to see the continued strength and demand for cruise. We are aggressively, yet thoughtfully, ramping up to full operations with over 90% of the fleet now in service. At the same time, we are driving occupancy higher on those ships that have been sailing, and we are focused on improving pricing compared to pre-COVID levels.

As we had indicated for the 20 ships that restarted over the last quarter, occupancy has been intentionally constrained. That said, occupancy increased from 54% last quarter to 69% this quarter, while we also increased available capacity by 25%. Now, the combination drove an over 60% sequential improvement in passengers carried. In fact, we carried over 1.6 million guests this past quarter. Partly in the month of June, we are already approaching 80% occupancy, and again, on even higher capacity. Now, what makes that even more impressive is we were able to achieve that in an environment of uncertainty, given frequently changing protocols, including those that were far more restrictive than those in broader society, and that were far more restrictive than those found even in other portions of the travel and leisure sector.

While thankfully, vaccination and test requirements are starting to relax, given the improvement in the state of the virus, we continue nonetheless to face constraints in the pool of potential guests due to ongoing requirements in a number of places. Yet, we have been able to make very meaningful progress. As you know, the CDC recently lifted the testing requirements for re-entry into the U.S. for air travel, which going forward, clearly removes some of the friction from our North American brands' deployment in both Europe and due to Canadian embarkations, Alaska. Usually requiring a longer duration flight, these itineraries are typically associated with longer lead times. Consequently, we expect the real benefit to be realized in 2023 and beyond. Importantly, customer deposits increased by $1.4 billion in our second quarter, topping $5 billion.

Now we've seen a continued increase in express demand, and we expect to see that demand continue to build as protocols are further relaxed and as society becomes increasingly comfortable managing the virus. Concerning the threat of global recession, while not recession-proof, our business has proven to be recession-resilient time and again. As we have seen in prior cycles, even in downturns, employed people take vacations. That's even more true in today's environment, where people prioritize spending on experiences over spending on things. Cruise remains an especially appealing vacation option during downturns because of its compelling value proposition relative to land-based alternatives. Also, there is pent-up demand for travel globally, which is a powerful tailwind. Currently, we are seeing success for close-to-home cruises, with many sailings achieving occupancy at or above 100%, where guests perceive far less friction than with international embarkations.

In fact, our Carnival Cruise Line brand, sailing its entire fleet, is expected to reach nearly 110% occupancy during our third quarter. We also saw an improvement in new-to-cruise guests in the second quarter, and we have begun to ramp up our advertising efforts selectively to help support attracting first-time cruisers. Concerning pricing, we remain focused on improving price through next year. We are focused on optimizing the occupancy while preserving long-term pricing. In this current environment of travel restrictions and health protocols, where we have close-in availability, we use opaque channels and limited promotions to capitalize on near-term demand. We are building on our aggressive fleet optimization efforts. Given challenges in parts of Europe, we have reallocated capacity to capitalize on markets where there is stronger demand.

In fact, we just announced an especially creative approach that we think holds great promise, the launch of Costa by Carnival. With Costa by Carnival, we bring the ambiance and beauty of Italy to Carnival Cruise Line guests. Costa Venezia, Costa Firenze, both newly introduced and both spectacular, will be managed by Carnival Cruise Line, catering to Carnival's guest base beginning in the spring of 2023 and 2024, respectively. This new concept will offer a unique experience for Carnival guests to choose fun Italian style while capitalizing on Costa's beautiful Italian design elements. Deployment for Venezia will be announced shortly and will represent a new itinerary option for Carnival guests. Separately, we also announced the transfer of Costa Luminosa to the Carnival brand beginning in November 2022, catering to Australian guests.

Now, with these changes, the Carnival brand will replenish capacity that had been removed from recent ship exits and contribute to managed growth for the brand. These new and differentiated product offerings enable us to capitalize on demand among Carnival Cruise Line guests and strengthen return on invested capital across our portfolio. In addition, we continue to further optimize our fleet and have announced the removal of an additional smaller, less efficient ship, bringing the total to 23 ships to be removed from the fleet since 2019.

The accelerated removal of these less efficient ships, coupled with the delivery of nine larger, more efficient ships delivered since 2019, fosters higher revenues over time through a 7 percentage point increase in the mix of premium-priced balcony cabins and an even better platform for onboard revenue opportunities, as well as generating a 6% reduction in ship-level unit costs, excluding fuel, moderating the effects of inflation and enabling us to deliver more revenue to the bottom line. Upon returning to full operations, nearly a quarter of our capacity will consist of newly delivered ships, expediting our return to profitability and improving our return on invested capital. Moreover, next year, our capacity growth compared to 2019 is concentrated in brands with our highest returns. Concerning recent fuel prices, we continue to aggressively manage our fuel consumption.

Upon reaching full fleet operations, we anticipate that we will achieve a further 10% reduction in unit fuel consumption and 9% reduction in carbon intensity as compared to 2019. With our proactive efforts to reduce fuel consumption, we actually peaked our carbon footprint in 2011, and that's despite an over 30% increase in capacity expected through 2023. In fact, we have reaffirmed and strengthened our carbon intensity reduction goals for 2030 and are on an accelerated path to achieve them through our fleet optimization efforts, investing in projects that drive energy efficiency, designing energy-efficient itineraries, and investing in port and destination projects. During the quarter, Carnival Cruise Line broke ground on an exciting new destination project, Carnival Grand Bahama Cruise Port.

This destination is expected to open in late 2024 and will offer guests a uniquely Bahamian experience with many exciting features and amenities. Now this private guest experience destination will join Princess Cays, Half Moon Cay, Grand Turk, Mahogany Bay, Amber Cove, and Cozumel, securing our strong foothold in the Caribbean. In fact, we benefit from a total of nine owned or operated private destinations and port facilities, including terminals in Santa Cruz de Tenerife and Barcelona. Again, I believe we have operationally reached an inflection point, and we are heading in the right direction with cash from operations turning positive this quarter. We have a strong liquidity position of $7.5 billion and have already managed our debt maturity towers down through 2024. We have 91% of the fleet now operating and at improving occupancy levels, which bodes well for future cash generation.

While to date, travelers perceive uncertainty and friction continues to be a headwind, as protocols become less restrictive and society continues to become increasingly more comfortable managing the virus, we expect to see demand continue to build as we have already seen with the strength for Carnival Cruise Line closer to home cruises. The attractive value proposition relative to land-based alternatives, which is even greater today, and the continued strength in onboard revenues should help foster a good environment for pricing and should help to accelerate our momentum going forward. Once again, I don't have the words to adequately convey how personally rewarding and inspiring the commitment, the dedication, the creative ingenuity, and the phenomenal execution of our Carnival team, shipboard, and shoreside around the world has been. That, of course, includes our chairman, Micky Arison, and the rest of our board of directors.

You know, in the face of constantly changing barriers and constraints, in an environment of continuous and extreme uncertainty, our global team of tens of thousands successfully tackled challenge after challenge after challenge, honoring our commitment to our highest priority of compliance, environmental protection, and the health, safety, and well-being of everyone while stewarding the shareholders' assets and positioning us for great success over time. I simply can't thank them enough, and it's truly a privilege and an honor to work with them. Thank you also to our valued guests. Their loyalty to our nine world-leading brands and the countless letters and calls of support are so deeply appreciated. Thank you to our travel agent partners who are more critical than ever in helping to deliver the great story of our cruise.

Thank you to our home port and destination communities who have stood by us throughout these challenges, among other contributions, providing vaccines and lobbying for workable protocols. Thank you to our suppliers and other many stakeholders who stood by us and worked hard to meet our needs while facing challenges of their own. Of course, thank you to our shareholders, our bondholders, the banks, the export credit agencies for continued confidence in us and for ongoing support. We are indeed poised for a great future because of the efforts and contributions of so many. With that, I would like to take the opportunity to introduce Josh and give him the chance to say a few words before turning the call back to David. Josh?

Josh Weinstein
COO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Thank you, Arnold. Thanks again to Micky and the entire board of directors for this great opportunity. I strongly believe in our company and our ability to create happiness by delivering unforgettable and much-needed vacations for our guests. This need is even more important in the current environment, given the stresses of the past two years and the value that we all place on shared experiences with friends and family. Now, we are uniquely placed to deliver on this through our nine leading cruise brands, each with a focus on meeting their specific guests' needs and wants. We plan on renewing our efforts to ensure each brand achieves clarity of positioning and effectively reaches their target audience. This, alongside providing cruise experiences that really resonate with their distinct guest base, will help each brand optimize its yield and growth aspirations to drive revenue.

We also expect to capitalize on our revitalized fleet, our continued portfolio optimization efforts, and our unparalleled destination footprint, particularly in the Caribbean and Alaska. In addition, we have an exciting sustainability roadmap that underlies all of our efforts. What also gives me tremendous confidence is our determined and resilient team around the world. They've proven time and time again for the last two and a half years that they can absolutely achieve anything, and they do it while staying true to Carnival Corporation's collective values and positive culture. All of this will help us accelerate revenues and returns, drive durable earnings growth, and improve the balance sheet. As you said, Arnold, we are clearly at an inflection point and have a bright future ahead.

I'm looking forward to putting the perspectives I've gained here in my 20 years and multiple roles to work for the benefit of our shareholders and our many other stakeholders.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Thanks, Josh. We're looking forward to your leadership. David?

David Bernstein
CFO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Thank you, Arnold. I'll start today with a review of guest cruise operations, along with a summary of our second quarter cash flow. Next, I will touch on our 2024 mandatory auditor rotation, then I'll provide an update on booking trends and finish up with adjusted EBITDA expectations and our current financial position. Turning to guest cruise operations. During the second quarter 2022, we restarted 20 additional ships, resulting in 74% of our total fleet capacity in guest cruise operations for the whole of the second quarter. This was a substantial increase from 60% during the first quarter 2022. As of today, 91% of our fleet capacity is in guest cruise operations. We were pleased to see that the second quarter 2022 revenue increased by nearly 50% compared to first quarter 2022, reflecting continued sequential improvement.

For the second quarter, occupancy was 69% across the ships in service, a significant increase from the 54% in the first quarter. We were encouraged by the very close-in demand we experienced during the second quarter for the second quarter, resulting in nearly double the close-in occupancy gains in second quarter 2022 versus second quarter 2019, a trend we had anticipated. Revenue per passenger day for the second quarter 2022 decreased slightly from a strong 2019. As Arnold Donald indicated, we are focused on optimizing occupancy while preserving long-term pricing. However, let's not forget the impact due to the future cruise credits, or FCCs as they are more commonly called, which cost us a couple of percentage points in second quarter 2022 versus second quarter 2019. Excluding the impact of FCCs revenue per passenger cruise day for the second quarter would have been higher than a strong 2019.

Once again, our onboard and other revenue per diems were up significantly in the second quarter 2022 versus second quarter 2019, in part due to the bundled packages as well as onboard credits utilized by guests from cruises canceled during the pause. We have recently expanded our bundled package offerings given their popularity. The new bundled offerings require us to make changes to the accounting allocation. As a result, in the third quarter, you will see more of the revenue in ticket and less allocated to onboard, impacting the onboard and other revenue per PCD comparisons for the third quarter as compared to the second quarter. Just another reason to add to the list of reasons why the best way to judge our performance is by reference to our total cruise revenue metric.

On the cost side, our adjusted cruise costs without fuel per available lower berth day, or ALBD as it is more commonly called, for the second quarter 2022 was up 23% versus second quarter 2019. The increase in adjusted cruise costs without fuel per ALBD is driven by essentially five things. First, the cost of a portion of the fleet being in pause status. Second, restart-related expenses for 20 ships. Third, 24 ships being in dry dock during the quarter, which resulted in over double the number of dry dock days during the second quarter versus the second quarter 2019. Fourth, the cost of maintaining enhanced health and safety protocols. And finally, inflation. Remember that because a portion of the fleet was in pause status during the second quarter and the higher number of dry dock days, we spread costs over less ALBD.

The first half of 2022 had an unusually large number of ships in dry dock as part of our resumption of cruising ramp-up, optimizing our dry dock schedule while the ships are not in service, ensuring that the ships look great and work great when they welcome their first guest back on board. However, the second half 2022 dry dock schedule looks more normal by historical standards. We anticipate that many of these costs and expenses driving adjusted cruise costs without fuel per ALBD higher will end during 2022 and will not reoccur in 2023. As a result of all of the above, we expect to see a significant improvement in adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD from the first half of 2022 to the second half of 2022, with a mid-teens% increase expected for the full year 2022 compared to 2019.

Next, I'll provide a summary of our second quarter cash flow. We ended the second quarter 2022 with $7.5 billion in liquidity versus $7.2 billion at the end of the first quarter. The change in liquidity during the quarter was driven essentially by six things. First, negative adjusted EBITDA of approximately $900 million due to our ongoing resumption of guest cruise operation, an improvement from the first quarter. Second, our investment of $500 million in capital expenditures. Third, $200 million of debt principal payments. Fourth, $400 million of interest expense during the quarter. All of which was more than offset by a $1.4 billion increase in customer deposits during the quarter, along with the $1 billion principal amount of senior unsecured notes we issued last month. Now I will touch on our 2024 mandatory auditor rotation.

I wanted to take a moment to explain our situation as it is very different from most publicly listed companies outside the U.K.. and the E.U. Carnival plc, our U.K. publicly listed company, which is part of our dual listed company structure, is subject to U.K. law, which requires mandatory auditor rotation. Therefore, PricewaterhouseCoopers, or PwC as they are more commonly called, must be changed as Carnival plc's auditor for the fiscal 2024 audit at the latest. Therefore, we conducted a competitive RFP process for the independent audit of Carnival plc, as well as the consolidated entity, Carnival Corporation & plc. As a result of the recently completed RFP process, yesterday, our board of directors appointed Deloitte as the company's independent auditor for fiscal 2024.

We completed the RFP process in the first half of 2022 to ensure an orderly transition of non-audit services for the remainder of 2022, and to ensure independence by Deloitte in 2023, as required under U.K. law. Before I continue, I would like to add that the board of directors and management of Carnival Corporation & plc would like to thank PricewaterhouseCoopers for its continued service as the company's independent auditor. Now let's look at booking trends. The higher March weekly booking volumes we talked about on our last business update continued throughout the quarter. This resulted in booking volumes for all future sailings during the second quarter 2022 being nearly double the booking volumes during the first quarter 2022.

Second quarter 2022 booking volumes for all future sailings were the best quarterly booking volumes we have seen since the beginning of the pandemic, although they were still below the 2019 level. I am happy to report that booking volumes since the beginning of April for the second half of 2022 sailing have been higher than 2019 levels. All of this reflects the previously expected extended wave season. As I said before, we were very encouraged by the close-in demand we experienced during the second quarter for the second quarter, resulting in nearly double the close-in occupancy gain in second quarter 2022 versus second quarter 2019, a trend we had anticipated.

While the cumulative book position for the second half of 2022 is below the historical range, we believe we are well situated with our current second half 2022 book position, giving current booking volumes coupled with closer in booking patterns. We continue to expect that occupancy will build throughout 2022 and return to historical levels in 2023. Pricing on our cumulative book position for the second half of 2022 is lower, with or without FCC, normalized for bundle packages as compared to 2019 sailings. For the full year 2023, our cumulative advanced book position continues to be at the higher end of the historical range and at higher prices, with or without FCCs normalized for bundle packages as compared to 2019 sailings.

This is a great achievement given pricing on bookings for 2019 sailings is a tough comparison as that was a high watermark for historical yield. During the second quarter 2022, we once again increased our advertising expense compared to the first quarter 2022 in anticipation of our full fleet being in guest cruise operations and our 8% capacity increase for 2023 versus 2019. Second quarter 2022 is the first time since the pandemic that advertising expense was above 2019 levels. I will finish up with our adjusted EBITDA expectations and our current financial position. We all know that booking trends are a leading indicator of the health of our business. With improved recent booking trends leading the way, driving customer deposits higher, positive adjusted EBITDA is clearly within our sights.

Adjusted EBITDA over the first half of 2022 was impacted by restart-related spending and dry dock expenses as 34 ships, nearly 40% of our fleet, were in dry dock during the first half of fiscal 2022. For the third quarter, with over 90% of our capacity back in guest cruise operations and occupancy percentages building, we expect ship-level cash contribution to grow. As a result, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be positive for the third quarter 2022, which after everything we've been through, will be something worth celebrating. With EBITDA turning positive, more liquidity than last quarter, debt maturity towers that have been well managed through 2024, we have already refinanced a portion of our 2023 maturities, and we will do the rest over time. Now I will turn the call back over to Arnold.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Thank you, David. Operator, please open the call to questions.

Operator

Thank you. To queue up for a question, please press the one followed by the four on your telephone. You will hear a three-tone prompt to acknowledge your request. One moment please for the first question. Our first question comes from the line of Steve Wieczynski with Stifel, please go ahead.

Steve Wieczynski
Managing Director, Stifel

Yeah. Hey, guys. Good morning. Arnold, congratulations, it was a great run, so thanks for your service.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Hey, Steve.

Steve Wieczynski
Managing Director, Stifel

First question would be around the booking patterns, which, you know, clearly here are continuing to strengthen. You know, however, I guess investors are gonna, you know, at this point, based on where your stock is, they're gonna look past booking, current booking patterns and, you know, they're gonna focus on what could come next given an uncertain macro backdrop. I guess my question is, you know, how would you guys, you know, attack a slowdown in bookings, you know, or load factors? In the past, you would have typically cut prices in order to keep load factors, you know, high.

This time around, you know, if you do see bookings slow, do you think you guys and your peers will be able to stay more disciplined on the pricing side of things so the recovery wouldn't be as steep on the other side?

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

A couple of quick comments. First of all, wouldn't comment on what the others would do. You can talk to them directly. For us, you know, we have, as we've been hit with different variants and invasion of Ukraine and other things, and bringing more capacity on board, you know, we've had to consider all of that. At this point in time, you know, largely we have done everything in mind of trying to keep our pricing strong, you know, going forward, because we think that's the right move right now. The positive thing here is that there is pent-up demand. Even if there was a global recession, the reality is we are, as I said in my comments, recession resilient historically.

This time, if there was a recession, there's tremendous pent-up demand, which in the past wasn't necessarily the case because it's been a couple of years where people have not been able, you know, to travel the way they wanted to. Combination of things. One is, you know, we are naturally somewhat recession resilient. We have an added tailwind of pent-up demand. Yes, we're focused on doing what we can to ultimately drive the cash we need, but at the same time, do in a manner where, you know, we can maintain pricing strength. David may have a comment.

David Bernstein
CFO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Yeah, just one thing I'd add to that. You know, remember, Steve, not every recession is the same, and we are currently in a very strong labor market. Given that, you know, if people have jobs and they feel comfortable in their jobs, they're likely, you know, to need a vacation. Remember, vacations are no longer a luxury, they're a necessity in today's world. I think we will do very well. As Arnold said, you know, we are recession resilient, and we'll do very well in a recessionary environment.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

There's, you know, we'll see if a recession comes right now. You know, savings are really high. As David pointed out, unemployment rates are, you know, really low. You know, there's economic strength for the time being, but we'll see what happens.

Steve Wieczynski
Managing Director, Stifel

Okay. Gotcha. Thanks for that, guys. Second question, I guess probably for you, David, you know, around the recent debt raise. We got a lot of questions from investors about, you know, why you guys would go out and raise debt north of, you know, 10% and maybe what drove you, or, you know, maybe there was an underlying reason, you know, as to why you had to raise debt at those levels. I guess from here, you know, the question's gonna be, you know, what is the opportunity moving forward to, you know, to refinance or maybe there isn't a chance to refinance, you know, given where rates are at this point?

David Bernstein
CFO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Yeah. You know, as I said on the last conference call, we were looking to, over time, refinance the $3 billion of 2023 maturities, and we were focused on that. You know, we took a look, and we believe that we're in a rising interest rate environment. We did go out, and we raised $1 billion at 10.5%. It was a difficult day in the market. Nobody could have predicted what would happen in the overall market. What's interesting is despite the market backdrop, we were able to raise $1 billion within the price talk that we wanted on that day, and we felt very good about that.

We're looking to do $2 billion to refinance, you know, the remaining portion, as I said in my notes, over time. You know, we're just averaging in. If you look at it today, you know, interest rates are higher than they were a month or so ago when we actually did our bond offering. You know, I'd say that we were in a good position. We feel good about what we did, and we'll look to refinance the other $2 billion over the ensuing months ahead. We're just averaging in. You know, keep in mind, despite, I will say, adding 10.5%, if you look at our portfolio of debt, our average interest rate today is 4.5%.

We've done a great job managing the whole portfolio and you know, this is just one minor piece in the portfolio.

Steve Wieczynski
Managing Director, Stifel

Okay, great. Thanks, guys. Really appreciate it. Best of luck, Arnold.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Next question from the line of Robin Farley, UBS. Please go ahead.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Leisure Analyst, UBS

Great. Thank you. Arnold, best wishes since this is the last earnings call you'll be joining us for, good luck with everything.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Thanks, Robin.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Leisure Analyst, UBS

I had a question on occupancy. You know, I think investors kind of struggle with, you know, how much of the lower occupancy is sort of temporary, like the Omicron cancellations in Q1 and new ships going into service at lower levels, and how much. In other words, to try to kind of see the pent-up demand there. I wonder if you could give us a little bit of color on sort of the sequential build and occupancy through Q2. I know you normally wouldn't give that level of detail.

Maybe something with your visibility on Q3, which I think, you know, normally you would be, you know, 80%-90% booked by now and just kind of, you know, are you seeing for ticket price relative to 2019 and occupancy, you know, with that level of visibility? I don't know if you'd comment a little more specifically. Thanks.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Yeah, you bet, Robin. I'll have David share some details, but the overarching comment would be that, you know, we have real strength in occupancy, and we had some intentionally constrained occupancy as we brought ships back online because of protocols in different places and so on. We also had some isolated situations where we're moving, you know, crew around temporarily as we were staffing up with crew and constrained capacity, and for those reasons as well. Overall our occupancy rates have, as we've shared, really improved over time here. As we mentioned, the Carnival brand is looking at 110% occupancy in the third quarter. We have more capacity sailing and occupancy is rising nicely.

As the world, you know, continues to relax and become comfortable managing the virus, and restrictions are relaxed, you know, we see things moving more the direction of the Carnival brand where things are more normalized, even though they still have some restrictions right now. David?

David Bernstein
CFO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Yeah. During the second quarter, I mean, the variance between the months, it went from 67%- 71%, which is why we wound up overall with that 69% occupancy for the quarter. As Arnold said, we're you know, approaching 80% for the month of June. With booking trends good, we continue to build. Keep in mind that as I had indicated, we started 20 ships in the second quarter, and of course there are a number of cruises where early on we constrained occupancy to ensure we practice and the guests have a great time. We build on those ships, and you can see the benefit of that when we got to June. We feel very good about the overall trend.

It is positive, moving in the right direction, and we do expect to see an improving trend in the third quarter and, you know, into 2023.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Leisure Analyst, UBS

Okay. Great. Thank you. Just as a follow-up question on the expense commentary, you know, you put it, you mentioned a lot of sort of buckets about, you know, pause status, ship restart costs, dry dock, all of those as being part of that 23% increase. I know you mentioned that will improve significantly by year-end. I wonder if you could quantify a little bit of how much of that increase was just in inflation and health and safety. In other words, the other factors all being somewhat temporary, you know, the pause status, the restart costs, the dry dock. How much of those, you know, sort of 23 points are go away automatically just by having the fleet back in service?

Just so we can think about kind of where you could get to by the end of the year in terms of expense per passenger cruise day? Thanks.

David Bernstein
CFO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Yeah. I think the best way for you to, you can do your own quantification, and it's pretty easy. If you think about we were sort of 24% up per ALBD for the first half, and all you have to do is if you're mid-teens for the full year, you come back into where we were for the second half, taking out the pause status, the restart, the dry docks, because I did say that the dry docks in the back half of the year were gonna be sort of more normal-like in terms of the number of dry dock days. If you back into the number, you'll be able to see where we are for the back half of the year, which is a better reflection overall than the first half.

Now, there's still noise in that because of supply chain disruption and other things, and we are working really hard to manage that down. We will do that. That's probably the best way to back into it.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Leisure Analyst, UBS

I know that that simple average would get you to kind of a mid-single digit for the second half. But I guess I was wondering by kind of the end of the year, really thinking about 2023, that's why I was looking for sort of what pieces would, you know, maybe go to zero or down.

David Bernstein
CFO, Carnival Corporation & plc

I understand, you know, I'm not in a position to give cost guidance for 2023 at this point. I was just trying to give you some directional. You can see what the back half is, and we'll manage through all of those items effectively over the next six months. You know, like I always say, we hope to do better. At this point, it would be premature for me to give you cost guidance.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Leisure Analyst, UBS

Okay. Understood. Thank you very much. Thanks.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Thanks, Robin.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jaime Katz with Morningstar. Please go ahead.

Jaime Katz
Senior Equity Analyst, Morningstar

Hi. Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. I'd be interested in hearing how you guys are seeing differences between domestic and international consumers, particularly because of this transition of Costa ships maybe being, you know, this rebranding with Carnival and whether or not that's signaling anything.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Yeah. I think just generally, obviously, Europe in many ways is more challenged from consumer demand standpoint as it relates to travel, to an extent than North America. What you're seeing in the move with Costa by Carnival and transfer of the Luminosa in Australia to Carnival is part of a rightsizing of Costa for what we see as a European environment, which is complicated not only by COVID and macroeconomic conditions somewhat triggered by invasion of Ukraine, but also, you know, the invasion of Ukraine. All of those things are impacting the European market sector. We're reallocating to, you know, brands that have stronger demand, they're in a stronger position. That's one of the beautiful things. Our assets are mobile.

Overall, we still see strong demand in Europe. There are portions of Europe, the UK in particular, and we see some continuing strength in portions of Germany and what have you. We see a good market in Europe, a strong market in North America, and we're just reallocating across the brands to optimize our portfolio and maximize the cash generation and position us for the long term.

David Bernstein
CFO, Carnival Corporation & plc

If I can build on that, a little bit. I did wanna point out, so, you know, we talked about our bookings in the second quarter nearly doubling what they were in the first quarter. The NAA brands were a little bit over double, and the EA brands, which includes Costa, were a little bit less than double. I mean, everything is heading in the right direction. There was good, solid, strong demand in all the brands. The NAA brands are doing, you know, from a booking trend perspective, a little bit better than the EA brands.

I'd also like to point out, you know, add to Arnold's comments about Costa by Carnival, because keep in mind, you know, a big chunk of Costa's capacity in 2019 was in China. With that market at the moment closed, we'd rather than take all of that capacity and put it in Europe, we created a new market for the Carnival guests, which we think will expand the market here in North America, and we'll be in a much better position overall. We feel very good about all of our brands and the direction, and we are managing it appropriately, as you could see with what Arnold talked about the moves of the ships.

Jaime Katz
Senior Equity Analyst, Morningstar

Okay. David, I don't think it was explicitly noted, but in the past, I think you guys had pointed to 2023 EBITDA above 2019 levels. Do you still feel like the business is tracking in the right direction to achieve that?

David Bernstein
CFO, Carnival Corporation & plc

I've said that quite a number of times. I think what I've always said is we have the potential for EBITDA to be greater in 2023 than 2019. It, you know, that one big wild card, of course, is the price of fuel, which has risen quite a bit in the last few months. Just keep that in mind. There is, with the occupancy improving over time, there certainly is that potential.

Jaime Katz
Senior Equity Analyst, Morningstar

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Scholes with Truist. Please go ahead.

Patrick Scholes
Managing Director, Lodging and Leisure Equity Research, Truist

Hi. Good morning, everyone. Arnold, best wishes as well.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Thank you, Patrick.

Patrick Scholes
Managing Director, Lodging and Leisure Equity Research, Truist

Thank you. First question is, can you comment on your potential willingness to sell brands to one or more brands to help shore up the balance sheet?

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Well, we're very pleased with our portfolio of brands. You know, having said that, you know, our job is always to keep an open mind and do what's best for the shareholders. You know, we would absolutely again evaluate any and all options, but we're only gonna do what makes sense for the shareholders given our projections of opportunity, you know, given the portfolio we have.

Patrick Scholes
Managing Director, Lodging and Leisure Equity Research, Truist

Okay. Fair enough. Then my second question is a bit of a clarification on some of the text in the earnings release where you noted that cumulative advanced bookings for the second half of 2022 are now below the historical range, which implies, of course, it was lowered from the previous where you said it was at lower end. Specifically, you noted here this position is consistent with its expected improving occupancy levels for the second half of 2022. Can you explain a little bit more what that last phrase means? I'm not quite understanding what you mean by consistent with expected improving occupancy levels.

David Bernstein
CFO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Yeah. What we were trying.

Patrick Scholes
Managing Director, Lodging and Leisure Equity Research, Truist

Thank you.

David Bernstein
CFO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Yeah. What we're just trying to say there is, you know, like Arnold indicated that in the month of June, in his prepared remarks, he said occupancy was approaching 80%. What we were trying to say is despite the fact that we were below the historical range, we do expect because of the closer in nature of the booking patterns to see occupancy in the back half of 2022 to be higher than the 69% in the second quarter. That's all we were really trying to indicate to people with that statement.

Patrick Scholes
Managing Director, Lodging and Leisure Equity Research, Truist

Okay. Thank you for the clarification.

David Bernstein
CFO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Sure.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Thank you, Ben.

Operator

Next question from the line of James Hardiman with Citi. Please go ahead.

James Hardiman
Director, Leisure and Travel Analyst, Citi

Hey, good morning.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Good morning.

James Hardiman
Director, Leisure and Travel Analyst, Citi

Thanks for taking my questions. Arnold, I wanted to reiterate congratulations and good luck with what's next.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Thanks, James.

James Hardiman
Director, Leisure and Travel Analyst, Citi

Wanted to hone in a little bit on some of the pricing commentary, particularly the revenue per passenger cruise day. I think you said that number was down a little bit. There was a little bit of an FCC headwind there. But I think that same number was up north of 7% in the last quarter. Obviously, there's this growing concern that the industry is going to need to push price a little bit to fill these ships. Maybe speak to that idea as we continue to fill up the ships in the third quarter and beyond. Should we expect that pricing number to go down further? Then obviously, we're gonna get back some of that FCC impact.

Sort of excluding that piece, how should we think about revenue per passenger cruise day as we continue to raise occupancy?

David Bernstein
CFO, Carnival Corporation & plc

I think overall, you know, Arnold, in his notes, talked about the fact that we were focused on maximizing occupancy while preserving price in the long term. We are very keen on that. You know, we did increase advertising expense in the second quarter for that purpose to create more demand. We are seeing more first-timers. We had mentioned the fact that we saw a significant improvement in first-timers. What we're trying to do here is, you know, building towards historical occupancy levels in 2023 with better pricing. As we indicated, the pricing for 2023 is up.

With the shorter booking window and the use of opaque channels and the use of limited promotions, we are driving occupancy in the short term, in order to optimize the EBITDA and the cash flow from operations of the business. While, you know, I'm not prepared to give you guidance on the third and fourth quarter gross revenue per PCD, which by the way, if you just think about the third quarter, one of the things to remember is we hope to have a lot of kids on board in the third quarter, and those thirds and fourths will also generally, they add to the revenue, they add to the bottom line. They will also, on a per PCD basis, be lower than the lower berths, both for the ticket and the onboard.

The kids don't generally spend as much onboard either, but we're happy to have them all on board. There are factors in there that you have to consider as you think about the, you know, the trend per PCD from third to fourth quarter and beyond.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

With the increase in occupancy that we experienced in the second quarter, even with, also, the capacity increase we had in the second quarter, when you normalize the FCCs, you know, our pricing did not decline.

James Hardiman
Director, Leisure and Travel Analyst, Citi

That's really helpful color. Maybe you already answered this to some degree, but if I sort of zoom out here for a minute. Historically, the industry has largely used this, you know, price to fill paradigm. I think with some of these metrics, the concern is that we'll return to that. You know, pre-pandemic, we were, it seemed like, in a better place, and, you know, thinking more about long-term pricing opportunities. Maybe speak to if there's been any change in your philosophy pre-pandemic to now, just given the importance of, you know, filling up these ships and getting to positive free cash flow.

David Bernstein
CFO, Carnival Corporation & plc

You know, one of the things that you have to think about in all of this is over time, we are already seeing it, the protocol friction is reducing. You know, just recently, the US dropped the testing requirements for people to get back into the US from international places. We are starting to see the ability for us to reduce our protocols and reduce the frictions. I think that will bring back people from the sidelines and will create additional demand, which will allow us to get better occupancy at a better price. Directionally, with more first-timers coming on board and the reduced protocols, we feel very good about the future over the next few quarters in 2023.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Keep in mind as you track all of this, that there are mix issues in here too, you know, just portfolio mix and, you know, overall brand positioning as well as specific itinerary, itineraries available and what have you. The average price, there's a lot of noise in that. The overall, you know, the message we're sending and what we are experiencing is an encouragement of a strong market coming back, pent-up demand, and us carefully managing that, thoughtfully managing it as we, you know, create the cash, and at the same time position the business well for the future.

James Hardiman
Director, Leisure and Travel Analyst, Citi

That's a really helpful color. Thank you both.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Thank you.

Operator

Next question from the line of Daniel Politzer, Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Daniel Politzer
Director, Equity Research Analyst, Wells Fargo

Hey, good morning, everyone. Arnold, best of luck, and Josh, congratulations on the new position.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Thank you.

Daniel Politzer
Director, Equity Research Analyst, Wells Fargo

I had a question on customer deposits and how we should think about this for the rest of the year. Obviously, it was very strong in the second quarter. I mean, there's typically a decline sequentially. You know, just as we think about cash flow through for the rest of the year and how, you know, customer deposits flow through, is it safe to say that, you know, this third quarter should, you know, is not going to be cash flow positive? Or, you know, just given that there's that sequential decline, or given the extent that you guys continue to recover in terms of your bookings and operations, the third quarter could continue to be cash flow positive.

David Bernstein
CFO, Carnival Corporation & plc

That's a great question, and we've been trying to answer that. I will tell you that since the end of May, customer deposits have continued to increase. They're up a few hundred million dollars. That at least directionally in the last, what has it been, 3.5 weeks, that's where we're at. Normally during the third quarter, there is a reduction because we reach the seasonal high peak at the end of May. There are offsetting factors this year that, you know, we would expect to see. With more ships coming back online and higher occupancies, that should mitigate any normal seasonalization. Whether it completely mitigates it or not, it's very hard for me to predict at this point.

There are some mitigating factors to the normal seasonalization of customer deposits.

Daniel Politzer
Director, Equity Research Analyst, Wells Fargo

Got it.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Oh, go ahead. Go right ahead.

Daniel Politzer
Director, Equity Research Analyst, Wells Fargo

Oh, yeah. One more quick one, if I could just squeeze it in. You know, in just the newer cruise product, a lot of your fleet has been refreshed. To what extent have you been able to capture that pricing? You know, typically these, the newer product gets a premium price, but this is kind of a weird environment. Have you been able to capture that? And if so, any kind of metrics or, you know, way to quantify that?

David Bernstein
CFO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Yeah. It's very hard to tell.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Yeah.

David Bernstein
CFO, Carnival Corporation & plc

I mean, we look at so many things, but.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

There's so many variables right now.

David Bernstein
CFO, Carnival Corporation & plc

S o many variables right now. It is just very, very difficult to tell, you know, in the comparison going back to 2019. We look at the total, we manage it appropriately. I will tell you, those new ships are performing very well, high levels of occupancy, generating significant cash flows. As we, you know, move forward, I suspect that we will be able to continue to generate a premium there. Arnold indicated, you know, nearly a quarter of our fleet will be new in 2023 or newly delivered. The average age of our fleet, believe it or not, I think I said this before maybe on one of the previous calls, but from 2019 to 2023, despite the passage of four years, the average age of our fleet went down one year.

That we've got a lot of new capacity, which should help very well both on the revenue side and on the cost side from an efficiency perspective and better fuel consumption. We are very excited about the future and delivering memorable vacation experiences to probably 14 million people in 2023 as we go for you know historical occupancy levels.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Operator, we'll take one more question. Let's make it a good one for Josh. Go ahead.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Assia Georgieva, Infinity Research. Please go ahead.

Assia Georgieva
CEO, Infinity Research

Good morning, Arnold. You'll be missed, but Josh, very happy that you received this great position, responsibility and triple promotion. I do have a good question for you, hopefully. With the Costa by Carnival concept, that is obviously something that would be a long-term fixture. We're not just moving ships around for, you know, the next two or three years. Do you believe that this is something that could be expanded? Does the cost of fuel play any role in terms of what ships might actually continue to join the new concept? LNG deliveries have been somewhat difficult, I guess, in Europe. We had issues with cost in South America last winter season.

How do you see the development of the concept, and what are the key parameters that would actually play into it?

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

I'm gonna have Josh comment on the overall brand positioning and stuff as we go forward. Real quickly on the LNG fuel question. LNG, as you know, is the cleanest-burning fossil fuel. It gives us a 20% reduction in carbon emissions, et cetera. The ships, you know, are dual, so they can also burn MGO. So that in and of itself wouldn't impact the future of the Costa brand. You know, we'll burn LNG whenever it makes sense and to do so, which we think will be the majority of the life of the ships. There are times when we'll obviously opt to burn MGO. In terms of the Costa by Carnival positioning, it's a new concept, and I'll let Josh share his thoughts about it. Go ahead, Josh.

Josh Weinstein
COO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Yeah, thanks.

Assia Georgieva
CEO, Infinity Research

Carnival.

Josh Weinstein
COO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Just one thing to clarify, obviously, the two ships that we're talking about that are going under this Costa by Carnival umbrella are not LNG ships, so that obviously didn't enter into our mindset at all. Just to reiterate.

Assia Georgieva
CEO, Infinity Research

Right.

Josh Weinstein
COO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Arnold's point. With respect to the positioning, you know, I think this is a great example of leveraging the scale of this corporation because what we could have done is taken those ships, new beautiful ships, solely under the Costa name and tried to introduce them into the North American market on a standalone basis. This is actually the opportunity to leverage everything that Carnival does so well here in the United States and Canada for its guest base. By marrying that along with Costa's, you know, beautiful tonnage and onboard experiences, we have the ability to marry that up and make the best go of creating something really special.

The short answer is we absolutely expect this to be successful, and we don't look at this as something short-term, but ideally it'll be something that works and we can build upon.

Assia Georgieva
CEO, Infinity Research

Okay. Currently, no further plans. Obviously, you've made plans for 2023 and 2024, so that's plenty of time and capacity coming in the two ships. At this point, it's too early to discuss whether this would become sort of a mini brand on its own.

Josh Weinstein
COO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Yeah, I think let's try it out with two ships and then we'll see how we do. That's it for now.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Thank you, everyone.

Assia Georgieva
CEO, Infinity Research

Makes sense. Thank you.

Arnold Donald
President and CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc

Oh, go ahead. I'm sorry. Okay. Thank you, everyone. Really appreciate it and looking forward to listening to these as we go forward and hearing the great news coming from Josh and our team. Thank you all very much and have a great day.

Operator

That concludes today's call. We thank you for your participation and ask you to please disconnect your lines.

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