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Earnings Call: Q3 2021

Oct 29, 2021

Operator

Welcome to the Corporate Office Properties Trust three quarters 2021 results conference call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. At this time, I will turn the call over to Stephanie Krewson-Kelly, COPT's Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Krewson-Kelly, please go ahead.

Stephanie Krewson-Kelly
VP of Investor Relations, COPT Defense Properties

Thank you, Blue. Good afternoon, and welcome to COPT's conference call to discuss Q3 2021 results and updated guidance. With me today are Steve Budorick, President and CEO, Todd Hartman, Executive Vice President and COO, and Anthony Mifsud, EVP and CFO. Reconciliations of GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that management discusses are available on our website in the results press release and presentation and in our supplemental information package. As a reminder, forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risks and uncertainties, which are discussed at length in our SEC filings. Actual events and results can differ materially from these forward-looking statements, and the company does not undertake a duty to update them. Steve?

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. The company delivered another fantastic quarter with better than expected results, another record-setting bond deal, and excellent achievement in all areas of leasing. Third quarter FFO, as adjusted for comparability, of $0.57 outperformed the high end of guidance by $0.01 and represented the sixth time in the past seven quarters that we outperformed expectations. We also exceeded our guidance for two of the last Q3 . For the third time this year, we're increasing the midpoint of our full year guidance for FFO per share as adjusted. The $2.27 midpoint of updated 2021 guidance is $0.08 above our original midpoint and represents an increase of 7.1% over 2020 results. We completed another record bond financing in the quarter.

In August, we issued $400 million of senior unsecured notes with a 2% coupon, which tied as the second lowest coupon ever issued among office rates. Our growth strategy targets owning and developing specialized office and data center shells and mission-critical defense IT locations. This strategy continues to deliver excellent results. In the quarter, we achieved a total of 1 million sq ft of leasing, which included extremely strong vacancy leasing of 215,000 sq ft. This vacancy leasing volume represented the highest achievement in two years and was 67% above the trailing eight-quarter average volume. Vacancy leasing also included a 68,000 sq ft lease with the United States government for two floors at 310 NBP.

In the quarter, we also completed 274,000 sq ft of development leasing all at defense IT locations, including a full building lease with the U.S. government. Lastly, we renewed 553,000 sq ft, delivering a 76% retention rate and lease economics that were consistent with our expectations. Leasing for the nine months indicates our fundamentals continue to strengthen, with customers making long-term commitments to new space. We completed 2.7 million sq ft of total leasing, which included 420,000 sq ft of vacancy leasing at an average lease term of 8.6 years. We completed 1.4 million sq ft of renewals, achieving a 75% retention rate, and we executed 915,000 sq ft of development leasing with an average initial term of 14.1 years.

After the quarter, we leased another 263,000 sq ft, bringing our total development leasing for the year to just under 1.2 million sq ft with an average lease term of 13.4 years. As a result of this transaction, our active developments total 1.8 million sq ft that are 94% leased. Development leasing to date exceeds our 2021 goal by 18% and represents the fourth consecutive year we've achieved over 1 million sq ft of development leasing. Our excellent leasing performance continues to translate into impressive operating results, including the impact of assets sold to fund development. For the 9-month period, NOI from real estate operations increased 7%, FFO per share as adjusted for comparability grew 10%, and AFFO is up 16% from one year ago.

Our unique defense IT portfolio, strong balance sheet, and reliable low risk development program continue to generate high quality FFO per share and cash flow growth that are extremely durable because demand is driven by defense spending and national security requirements rather than traditional office fundamentals. As important, demand at our defense IT locations is not impacted by work from home and other trends that may affect office demand in the future. We continue to have a strong set of leasing and development opportunities before us and the balance sheet to seize upon them.

With that, I'll hand the call over to Todd.

Todd Hartman
EVP and COO, COPT Defense Properties

Thank you, Steve. Continued strong demand in our markets has driven outstanding lease achievement this year. Third quarter vacancy leasing was exceptionally strong at 215,000 sq ft, representing 18% of our available space at the beginning of the quarter. To put this achievement in perspective, since defense spending began rebounding in 2016, our quarterly vacancy leasing has averaged 132,000 sq ft. There were two major transactions from the quarter worth highlighting, the first of which was a 68,000 sq ft lease with the U.S. government at 310 NBP, leaving two floors to lease to bring that building to 100%. The customer continues to indicate their intent to lease the remaining space, but because the government is operating under a continuing resolution, we now project lease execution during 2022.

The second major vacancy lease was for 63,000 sq ft at 6740 Alexander Bell Drive in Columbia Gateway. The new tenant is consolidating multiple offices and executed a 16.5-year lease for the entire building, with lease commencement expected in July 2022. Although we had intended to redevelop this asset, we backfilled the full building in just 4 months and accordingly have moved it back into our same property pool. For the nine months, our 420,000 sq ft of vacancy leasing represented 114% of the trailing five year average through nine months and was the second highest nine month volume in the past five years.

Our current leasing activity ratio is 101% and since the start of the second quarter has averaged 90%, underpinning much of the Q3's vacancy leasing success and our expectation for strong lease achievements continuing into the Q4. During the Q3, we renewed 553,000 sq ft, translating into a 76% tenant retention rate. Cash rents on renewals rolled down 0.6% of a percent, and GAAP rents grew 1%. Excluding an 89,000 sq ft renewal where the tenant was rolling off a 10-year lease that had escalated above market, cash and GAAP rents increased 1% and 5%, respectively, in the quarter. For the 9-month period, we completed 1.4 million sq ft of renewals with a 75% retention rate.

Cash rents rolling down 0.3%, with annual escalations averaging 2.4% and average initial lease terms of 3.8 years. Excluding the two Boeing buildings in Redstone Gateway that are still on one-year renewals, the lease term for the nine months averaged 4.7 years. We continue to advance negotiations to renew the 11.25 MW user at D.C. Six . The customer's process remains slow and methodical, and we are confident they will renew. Given we cannot control their pace, we are not putting a timeframe on its completion. The tenant's original lease remains in effect, and they continue to pay their escalated rent. During the quarter, we executed 274,000 sq ft of development leasing at Redstone Gateway. The largest transaction was a 205,000 sq ft full building lease with the U.S. government.

Lease commencement is scheduled for early 2024. This development represents our second building in the secured campus, which, upon completion of this project, will total 460,000 sq ft. The remaining 69,000 sq ft of development leasing was with two defense contractors who leased space at 8,000 Rideout Road. That development was started because of the contractor demand we are tracking and is now 88% leased. We are working to close a lease for the remaining 12,000 sq ft. Earlier this month, we executed leases with Northrop Grumman for two build-to-suit office buildings along Rideout Road at Redstone Gateway. The two-building campus totals 263,000 sq ft of highly visible class A office space with one of the world's largest defense contractors just outside Redstone Arsenal's main gate.

We are on track for lease commencement in the second half of next year. Once the active projects under development at Redstone Gateway are placed into service, the park will total 2.2 million sq ft, making it our second largest concentration of defense IT assets and equal to slightly more than half the size of the National Business Park. The Northrop leases brought our year-to-date development leasing total to nearly 1.2 million sq ft, making 2021 the tenth straight year we have exceeded our development leasing goal. Based on the 1.5 million sq ft of opportunities we are tracking in our development leasing pipeline, we expect continued strong development leasing. Lastly, in the first nine months, we placed 709,000 sq ft of developments into service that were 89% leased.

We expect to place another 74,000 sq ft into service in the Q4, bringing our total for the year to roughly 800,000 sq ft. With that, I'll turn the call over to Anthony.

Anthony Mifsud
EVP and CFO, COPT Defense Properties

Thanks, Todd. Third quarter FFO per share as adjusted for comparability of $0.57 exceeded the midpoint of guidance by $0.02, driven by $0.01 of deferred R&M projects and $0.01 of other outperformance. We expect to complete the deferred R&M projects in the Q4, which will impact same property cash NOI and FFO per share. Incorporating this change, we are adjusting the midpoint of our Q4 guidance to a new range of $0.55-$0.57. The timing of R&M projects drove 165 basis points of outperformance in same property cash NOI, which increased 4.8% in the quarter.

Given the year-to-date results, we are increasing our full year guidance for same property cash NOI growth again from a prior range that was flat to up 1% to a new range that is up 50-100 basis points. At the 75 basis point midpoint, our revised full year guidance for same property cash NOI growth is 175 basis points above the midpoint of our original guidance. We are also narrowing our full year guidance for same property occupancy from the prior range of 90%-92% to a new range of 90%-91.5%.

Our revised guidance continues to incorporate the 20 basis points negative impact of joint venturing fully occupied, wholly owned data center shells to raise equity in the Q4, and has been adjusted to include the 40 basis points negative impact of placing 6740 Alexander Bell Drive back into service, back to the same property pool. In August, we issued $400 million of long seven-year senior unsecured notes priced at 2% and used the proceeds to retire floating rate debt. Specifically, we prepaid $100 million of our 2022 term loan, retired the $89 million construction loan at 2100 L Street, and paid down amounts on our line of credit with the remainder.

The August deal was more than 5 times oversubscribed and priced at 105 basis points over the seven year treasury, which was 25-30 basis points below initial price talk. The 2% coupon ranks as the lowest among office REITs for seven year paper and ties as the second lowest overall face rate of any duration among office REITs. Our credit spreads compare favorably to peers who are rated one notch higher by the rating agencies. Clearly, fixed income investors appreciate the durability of our cash flow, the high quality credit of our tenants, and their in-office work requirements. Also of note, since September 2020, we have issued $1.4 billion of senior notes with an average term of over eight years and used the proceeds to retire debt carrying an average term of 1.8 years.

Lastly, incorporating the items addressed earlier, we are increasing our full year guidance from a previously elevated range of $2.24-$2.28 to a new range of $2.26-$2.28. At the midpoint, our updated guidance range implies 7.1% growth over 2020 results and is 8 cents higher than the midpoint of our original guidance. It is important to note that placing several development projects into service earlier than originally planned drove nearly 2 cents of this year's outperformance. Pulling that NOI forward into 2021 tempers 2022 growth by approximately 1%. With that, I'll hand the call back to Steve.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Thank you. I'll close the call with a recap of our key message points. Our company's investment strategy is supported by the defense economy, which is funded by the United States defense budget and aligned with priority national security needs of the United States. The U.S. defense budget has been well funded since fiscal year 2016 and has bipartisan support for continued growth to address the increasingly risky global threat environment. Our portfolio office usage levels remain very high, as high security defense work cannot be performed from remote locations. Our defense tenants are not experiencing diminished office usage, significant contractions, or seeking short-term lease extensions. Rather, they continue to require densely configured office space to accommodate mission growth. As our results continue to evidence, they are making long-term commitments to our defense IT locations.

The lengths of our development, vacancy, and renewal leases remain at or above pre-pandemic levels, demonstrating our tenants' commitment to working in their offices for the long term and their confidence in the outlook for the defense industry. Our company has exceeded its business plan throughout the pandemic era. This year, we're experiencing further strengthening of business fundamentals and achievement, suggesting continued strength and performance in coming years. Clearly, our strategy of investing in priority defense mission locations and creating value through new low risk development at these locations is very different from other office companies and continues to deliver high quality FFO per share and cash flow growth regardless of the broader economic trends. Operator, with that, please open up the call for questions.

Operator

Thank you, Mr. Budorick. At this time, to ask a question, you will need to press star one on your telephone. To withdraw your question, just press the pound key. The first question comes from the line of Manny Korchman from Citi. Your line is now open.

Manny Korchman
Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Hey, good afternoon, guys. Maybe this is a question for either Todd or Anthony, but you've got a pretty good leasing backlog that's built up. How should we think about that translating into an increase in physical occupancy, just from a timing perspective?

Anthony Mifsud
EVP and CFO, COPT Defense Properties

In terms of occupancy, it's probably, based on the leasing that we've done this quarter, a Q2 to Q3 occupancy for next year. Typically, it's a five to six month period.

Manny Korchman
Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Yeah.

Anthony Mifsud
EVP and CFO, COPT Defense Properties

from execution to occupancy.

Manny Korchman
Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Does that hold for the NBP lease, as well, Anthony?

Anthony Mifsud
EVP and CFO, COPT Defense Properties

It does.

Manny Korchman
Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Okay. Just looking at the leasing stats, concessions continue to be pretty high, especially on the new leases. Is there any relief coming there, or is there anything specific that went into that that drove those numbers as high as they were?

Todd Hartman
EVP and COO, COPT Defense Properties

Well, on our new leasing for the quarter, we had one lease that was an outlier on the high side due to the fact that it was shell space. It was our 68,000 sq ft lease. The TI on that deal was a little higher than the rest. Overall, if that deal was removed, our quarterly number was $6.71, which tracks very nicely with our five-year average for the quarter.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Yeah, Manny, to be clear, that's a U.S. government lease at 310 NBP. Although it's a five-year lease term, that tenant will occupy that building for extremely long period of time.

Manny Korchman
Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Thanks,Anthony .

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Craig Mailman from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Line is open.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Hello, Craig.

Todd Hartman
EVP and COO, COPT Defense Properties

Hey, Craig.

Stephanie Krewson-Kelly
VP of Investor Relations, COPT Defense Properties

Craig?

Operator

Craig, your line's open.

Stephanie Krewson-Kelly
VP of Investor Relations, COPT Defense Properties

He's on a cell off, sir. Sir, he might have fallen out of the cell. Can you go on to the next question, please?

Operator

Thank you. Yes. Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Feldman from Bank of America. Your line's now open.

Jamie Feldman
Director, REIT Equity Research Analyst, Bank Of America

Thanks, and good morning. Maybe just to start, can you talk about some of the Baltimore explorations and where you stand on backfilling those and tenant interest?

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Well, there's two large events. Transamerica vacates January 1, and we have marketing activity. Todd, you wanna talk about your volume?

Todd Hartman
EVP and COO, COPT Defense Properties

Yeah. We have about 100,000 sq ft of prospects that we're working with currently for the 140,000 sq ft that we expect to get back, as Steve said, January 1. You know, progress is slow but methodical on those as well, and we're very encouraged by the response once the space was put on the market. You know, it is the top of the building. It's unique space in downtown Baltimore, and I think the current level of interest indicates, overall interest in that space. As far as the other large renewal, CareFirst over at 1501 S. Clinton Street, we continue to progress on the renewal and expect that to happen very soon.

Jamie Feldman
Director, REIT Equity Research Analyst, Bank Of America

Okay, great. Thank you. I guess just that, D.C. Six , I know you're, you know. It sounds like it's certainly not on your end. You know, as you guys look ahead to next year, do you think you'll still do the same thing, just keep it in or assume late in the year for guidance? Just what's a realistic expectation to set here about when that could actually get done?

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Well, I think our word said we're no longer in the business of projecting the finishing date. There's absolutely no reason why it can't get done quicker, over the next quarter. It's just been amazingly frustrating, the change in personnel and the lack of progress. It's interesting to note we have, a relationship on the renewal side. We also have regular activity on the operating side. Our activity from the operating side makes it crystal clear they're gonna stay in the building. I don't know why it's not a higher priority for , but we continue to await their a more affirmative schedule from them.

Todd Hartman
EVP and COO, COPT Defense Properties

With respect to guidance for next year, when we come out with that, we will be clear about what we've assumed in the low and the high end of our range and therefore the midpoint with respect to 2022, so that we can report off of that once the transaction is completed.

Jamie Feldman
Director, REIT Equity Research Analyst, Bank Of America

Okay. Thank you. Just thinking about data centers in general, I mean, do you think you could ramp up development here more? If you look at the land bank, I think you've got room for maybe, what, three or four more on your current land. How should we be thinking about that as a avenue of growth?

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Well, we have over 1 million sq ft of capacity on the land we have, and I think you'll see some substantial leasing on that land next year.

Jamie Feldman
Director, REIT Equity Research Analyst, Bank Of America

That's based on discussions today?

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Yes.

Jamie Feldman
Director, REIT Equity Research Analyst, Bank Of America

Okay. On the development pipeline, can you talk about the College Park development, just how you're making progress there? I think it's, you only have a couple projects that are around 50% leased at this point. I'm just curious how that one's trending.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

We have two tenants that are negotiating to close out that building, and frankly, might require additional space in the future, which could trigger the next building. One of those may get signed by the end of the year. The other one is a government-funded cyber program, and because of the funding process, it may not get done by the end of the year. But we've stopped marketing that space to anybody else.

Jamie Feldman
Director, REIT Equity Research Analyst, Bank Of America

Do you see expanding a lot more in that submarket, or this will be one or two buildings and that's it?

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Well, we have significant capacity beyond what we're doing. I would expect one building in the next couple years, and then we'll see what happens. You know, we build to demand, so as demand arises, we have additional capacity to deliver.

Jamie Feldman
Director, REIT Equity Research Analyst, Bank Of America

Okay. You're comfortable sitting on that land longer term.

Todd Hartman
EVP and COO, COPT Defense Properties

Yeah. Well, the land really has no cost to us because it's part of the joint venture with the University of Maryland. When the land gets contributed into each of the individual building developments, that land value becomes part of their equity balance. There's really no cost to the company of carrying that land.

Jamie Feldman
Director, REIT Equity Research Analyst, Bank Of America

Oh, got it. Okay. Thank you.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes to the line of Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.

Steve Sakwa
Senior Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Evercore ISI

Yeah, thanks. Good afternoon. First, I was just wondering if you could provide a little bit more of a breakdown on the 1.5 million sq ft development pipeline. You know, how does that break out between sort of office and data centers? And then maybe within the office component, if there's any flavor for, just where, is that in Huntsville? Is that up in NBP, other parts of the portfolio?

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Sure. It's about, because we've just signed a bunch of defense IT leases, it's currently about 60% data center shell, 40% defense IT, and that 40% is broken between NBP and Redstone Gateway.

Steve Sakwa
Senior Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Evercore ISI

I guess when you look at your kind of occupancy and leased percentages, most of your submarkets are, kind of low- to mid-90s. The only real two standouts are, what you label as Howard County and kind of Northern Virginia. I'm just wondering if you could sort of talk about. You talked about good, vacancy leasing, but I'm just wondering if you or Todd could speak to what you're seeing in those two markets, which are, certainly the laggards within the portfolio.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Well, I'll jump on Virginia, you and Howard County. We do have one asset with about 90,000 sq ft of vacancy in Northern Virginia in Merrifield, and the velocity in that submarket is fairly slow. We signed one lease this quarter, and we have some opportunity in the front, but that's a market-driven velocity challenge. Columbia Gateway is pretty exciting. I'll let Todd talk about it.

Todd Hartman
EVP and COO, COPT Defense Properties

Yeah. I would, our activity in Columbia Gateway is very strong, as it is generally in the Baltimore-Fort Meade corridor. Recent activity in the market, several large transactions have occurred, and the activity ratio, for the Columbia Gateway area is about 125% of the available space. I would anticipate, our Howard County numbers to increase very soon.

Steve Sakwa
Senior Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Evercore ISI

Great. Thanks. That's it for me.

Operator

Your next question comes to the line of Blaine Heck from Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.

Blaine Heck
Executive Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities

Thanks. Good afternoon. Todd, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks that Redstone would be 2.2 million sq ft by the time everything under construction is completed. Can you talk about how much additional capacity to build you'd have left there after those projects are done, and whether there's any need or ability to acquire more land to build there?

Todd Hartman
EVP and COO, COPT Defense Properties

Yeah. We have about 2.3 million sq ft of additional capacity after these are completed. We have the ability to expand down there and currently are considering, our options. Right now we're about halfway done with the available capacity.

Blaine Heck
Executive Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities

Great. That's helpful. Anthony, your updated guidance calls for 50 basis points to 100 basis points of same-store NOI this year. To date, you're sitting at roughly 1.5%, implying a dip in the Q4. You know, can you just talk us through the drivers there? I'm assuming the Redstone move-out might have something to do with that, but anything else we should be thinking about there? You know, I know you guys aren't giving guidance for 2022, but is there any color you can give on what the lower result in the Q4 means for same-store going forward and any levers you might be able to pull or have in place to increase that in the future?

Anthony Mifsud
EVP and CFO, COPT Defense Properties

Well, the Q4 is gonna be less than pull down the year-to-date results because of the two things. One is the timing of the R&M projects that we talked about. That was one-tenth of the current quarter's outperformance that will be executed in the Q4. And there are some impact from some, incremental net operating expenses in the Q4 compared to the Q4 of last year because of the increase in attendance at some of our regional office properties. Those are really the two drivers of the performance for the Q4. You know, I think with respect to next year, I think we're, we're, I think we will. We'll put out information when we're ready to.

I think there's sort of anomalies like these in quarter by quarter that positive and negative that we'll talk about if we need to, but nothing right now for next year that would lead us to believe that we would be outside of what we've historically talked about what our internal growth would be.

Blaine Heck
Executive Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities

All right. Fair enough. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Your next question comes to the line of Tom Catherwood from BTIG. Your line is now open.

Tom Catherwood
Managing Director, REITs Equity Research, BTIG

Thanks so much, and good afternoon, everyone. Steve, in the past, you've mentioned that kind of office requirements and layouts have not materially shifted for your new developments. What are you seeing in terms of specialized building features in these new projects? Either things like SCIF rooms, force protection or physical setbacks. Are tenants needs changing on that front? Do you find kind of additional development spend going to those specialized features?

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

With regard to development spend, we negotiate a market TI allowance. We meet the market. How the tenant uses it's kind of up to them. We don't fully fund the SCIF, I guess, is my point. The demand for SCIF is extremely high right now. There's a pent-up set of contractors seeking SCIF in and around the NBP that can't be fulfilled with existing inventory. We expect it'll drive continued demand in the future. With regard to the way space is being used in new development, I can tell you the recently executed two-building build-to-suit is very interesting because as part of the development costs, we're gonna have to actually go to partial structured parking to accommodate the density that Northrop Grumman's gonna put in those buildings.

The delivery of space is somewhat slower than we could have normally done because of the extreme technology they're adding to the buildings, including SCIF and other, high computing kind of environments, in that space. I think I addressed your questions. Is there something I missed?

Tom Catherwood
Managing Director, REITs Equity Research, BTIG

No, no, that was perfect, Steve. Kind of along those same lines then, and you may not have a sense of this, but any idea then how much more tenants are putting into their space on average over and above those TIs you're allocating, maybe for these new projects?

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

This is a guess and no more than a guess, but my guess is almost 50% of the TI we give them. On average.

Tom Catherwood
Managing Director, REITs Equity Research, BTIG

Appreciate that. One more from me. Specifically looking at your land bank, it looks like this quarter, there's a delta of about 24 acres in NBP between prior quarter and this quarter, but you didn't start anything this quarter in that area. Are you accounting for the land differently there, or did you sell something off? What was driving that roll down in land?

Anthony Mifsud
EVP and CFO, COPT Defense Properties

Oh, you get a cookie for that one, Tom. That is just an adjustment for the assumed density on the one of the parcels as we look at laying that parcel out for the different kinds of uses that we believe tenants are gonna need in NBP South.

Tom Catherwood
Managing Director, REITs Equity Research, BTIG

Got it. Future requirement adjustment is what that was.

Anthony Mifsud
EVP and CFO, COPT Defense Properties

Yeah. It's just really about how the space will get used. It wasn't about, putting anything into service or out of service or using any land for any development. It was about how the team is looking at that, how that space is gonna be laid out and used in the future.

Tom Catherwood
Managing Director, REITs Equity Research, BTIG

Got it. Makes total sense. Thanks, everyone.

Operator

Your next question comes to the line of Dave Rodgers from Baird. Your line is now open.

Dave Rodgers
Senior Research Analyst, Baird

Yeah, good afternoon. Steve, wanted to ask about the long lease durations on some of the developments that you had announced, I think, during the quarter and subsequent to that, sounded like 13-16 years. Can you talk about kind of how the development returns came out on those longer duration leases? And do the tenants have outs or termination options? That's a pretty long lease, it seems like, from what we're used to seeing.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

No, they don't have outs. Development returns, our threshold return on defense IT assets is an 8% cash yield. They've all been in that neighborhood, and some slightly better.

Dave Rodgers
Senior Research Analyst, Baird

These aren't necessarily tied to a specific contract. The capital that you answered in the last question is likely the reason they would wanna kind of lock in for that long. Is that the right way to think about it?

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

That's correct. Remember, a bunch of the leases that we've done at Redstone are new headquarters locations, and so they're investing in those assets heavily 'cause that's where they're gonna center their business operation in service to the Redstone Arsenal in the future.

Dave Rodgers
Senior Research Analyst, Baird

Gotcha. That's helpful. Anthony, maybe update us on the disposition plan. You mentioned it, I think, in your comments for Q4 and continued dispositions as you think about amount timing for the quarter and then maybe looking into next year. Any thoughts about that?

Anthony Mifsud
EVP and CFO, COPT Defense Properties

For the Q4, we have 2 data center shells that we're focusing on that would raise about a little over $70 million worth of equity capital using our 90-10 structure that we've done in the past. You know, as we look into next year, as we've sort of been consistently saying, if our stock price is at a point where we believe we're getting fair value and we can issue equity at fair value, our first choice would always be to issue under the ATM to match fund the development investment that we're making.

To the extent that that isn't an option, after the transaction we're contemplating for the Q4, we would still have over $700 million worth of gross value of data center shells that are either operating or currently under development, that we could tap into to fund the equity requirements for continuing to invest in the development pipeline.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

$700 million.

Anthony Mifsud
EVP and CFO, COPT Defense Properties

Million. Excuse me.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Okay.

Anthony Mifsud
EVP and CFO, COPT Defense Properties

700.

Dave Rodgers
Senior Research Analyst, Baird

Great. Thanks for the answers. I appreciate it.

Operator

Your next question comes to the line of Rich Anderson from SMBC Nikko.

Rich Anderson
Managing Director, Senior REIT Analyst, SMBC Nikko Securities America

Thanks. Good afternoon, everyone. I have a theory that your occupancy is sort of capped at 93%. The reason why I say that is, if you have, call it 2 million sq ft a year expiring and your retention is 75%, well, then 25% is about 500,000 sq ft of new vacancy coming at you. If you're doing about that much vacancy leasing in any given year, it's kind of a treadmill. You know, is that a reasonable way of looking at, the future for the company?

Anthony Mifsud
EVP and CFO, COPT Defense Properties

I think with respect to the operating portfolio, it may be the one thing that will impact in the future is how well leased the development pipeline is going to be adding to the overall portfolio as those projects are placed in service. Right now, we've got almost 2 million sq ft that are under development. That's roughly, 10% of the existing portfolio. They're 94% leased today. You know, we expect by the time they're fully placed in service, they'll be 100% leased. We think on the margin, the continued low risk, highly leased development will help drive that up from that number that you're referring to.

Rich Anderson
Managing Director, Senior REIT Analyst, SMBC Nikko Securities America

Okay, good enough. What is the difference in the retention rate of regional office versus your core defense IT business?

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Well, next year it's not gonna look very good because we're gonna get back 150,000 sq ft from Transamerica.

Rich Anderson
Managing Director, Senior REIT Analyst, SMBC Nikko Securities America

Right.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

You know, typically.

Rich Anderson
Managing Director, Senior REIT Analyst, SMBC Nikko Securities America

More in a typical run rate, I guess.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

You know, historically, it's been pretty consistent, but it's gonna look pretty ugly next year.

Rich Anderson
Managing Director, Senior REIT Analyst, SMBC Nikko Securities America

Yeah. Okay. Last question, D.C. Six. Sorry. You know, this is obviously an area of frustration building every day, perhaps. Is this a tenant that you would hesitate to do business with in the future? I mean, what is the relationship, still okay? Or I'm just wondering, how you feel about them as a potential business partner in the future.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Our relationship is great, and we work with them and like I said, in multiple levels, operating and leasing. It's a tenant every data center owner would love to have, and we're grateful to have them. Just this renewal has been a little bit frustrating. There's been a lot of change in personnel and fits and starts. We'll get through it, but it's a great tenant. We're thrilled to have them in our building.

Rich Anderson
Managing Director, Senior REIT Analyst, SMBC Nikko Securities America

Okay. That's all I have. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes to the line of Rob Simone from Hedgeye Risk Management.

Rob Simone
Managing Director, Head of REITs Coverage, Hedgeye Risk Management

Hey, guys. How's it going? Thanks for taking the question.

Anthony Mifsud
EVP and CFO, COPT Defense Properties

You're up.

Rob Simone
Managing Director, Head of REITs Coverage, Hedgeye Risk Management

Hey, Anthony. Super high-level question, more of like a long-term strategic question for OFC. I guess one of the things that it came up on this call, right? Like, the thought of tapping or the strategy of tapping the ATM to match fund development. Is there a case, like a long-term case to be made that with the, the nature of your tenants and longer-term leases, that there's a case to be made to maybe potentially, like, consider taking your leverage up a turn or so, or whatever that number is, and effectively terming out some longer-dated debt, pulling that capital forward to fund that development as opposed to

The reason why I say that is because obviously, like, the portfolio is a lot cleaner than it was four or five years ago. Theoretically, at least, you have, like, these long-term contracts plus the plus a better tenant mix to be able to support that. I don't know. I just wanted to gauge your thoughts around that. Then I have one quick follow-up question related to it.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Well, reasonable people could make that argument. Certainly the performance, the credit quality we have, you could argue for higher debt. We have run the company in a highly risk-averse manner. We prefer having less debt than higher debt. Over time, we hope to develop our way to a lower debt-to-EBITDA number. You know, we continue to create meaningful shareholder value at the debt level we're at, and we're comfortable.

Rob Simone
Managing Director, Head of REITs Coverage, Hedgeye Risk Management

Sure. Okay. Makes sense. Specifically related to that, you guys have the I think it's the $300 million term loan coming due late next year. What's the plan for that? Is that like an unsecured bond refinance, or what are you guys gonna do with that?

Anthony Mifsud
EVP and CFO, COPT Defense Properties

I think we have a few options. We could go back to the public unsecured market to refinance that. The bank term loan market is, sort of wide open again. We believe we have the opportunity to just refinance that with our bank group. That particular loan is fully funded by, we have a bank group of 12. That loan is actually funded by the six banks within the bank group that are sort of the not the

Lower tier banks. We have clearly capacity to take out that term loan with our bank group or to even increase it if we wanted to. We think the market is there to do that.

Rob Simone
Managing Director, Head of REITs Coverage, Hedgeye Risk Management

Got it. Okay. Well, thanks Steve, thanks Anthony, thanks Steph. Be well. Appreciate it.

Stephanie Krewson-Kelly
VP of Investor Relations, COPT Defense Properties

Yep.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one. Your next question comes from the line of Manny Korchman from Citi. Your line is now open.

Manny Korchman
Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Hey, Steve, wanted to follow up on the last answer that you gave me to my last question. You said the TIs were high because of the leasing at NBP. Was that the 310 Sentinel Way lease? Because I thought that was in October, not in the 3Q numbers, or are the 3Q numbers inclusive of that lease?

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

No, it's in the 3Q numbers, Manny. We just announced it with the earnings call. It wasn't quite significant enough to put out individually. So that number is in there. It's a $60 TI on a five year deal, which drives up your cost per year of committed term. But, if you know our business well, that tenant will be in that building for more than 20 years.

Manny Korchman
Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Thanks for the clarification.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Yep.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Lucas from Capital One Securities. Your line is now open.

Chris Lucas
Senior Managing Director, Lead REIT Equity Research Analyst, Capital One Securities

Hi, good afternoon, everybody. Hey, Steve, just a couple of follow-ups. Just on the renewal at D.C. Six, what is the term for that? Again, I hate to bring it up. Just trying to understand sort of, how long you've been dealing with it versus what the actual duration here is on that deal.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

That's a very good question. We've been negotiating it for two years, and it's a three year term.

Chris Lucas
Senior Managing Director, Lead REIT Equity Research Analyst, Capital One Securities

Okay. Just going back to the commercial vacancy issues, what level of interest is there in terms of space available? Are you seeing space interest across the board for all the space? Is there some space that has more promising competitive nature to it? I'm just trying to understand sort of what the perspective is there, recognizing the other portion of the business is pretty well buttoned up.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Are you talking about the regional office?

Chris Lucas
Senior Managing Director, Lead REIT Equity Research Analyst, Capital One Securities

Yes, I am.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Yeah. Our largest concentration of vacancy would be in downtown Baltimore, and it's the kind of demand you would expect, financial services, law, business services, and high-quality tenants seeking a premier building with great views. Did I get to the question or-

Chris Lucas
Senior Managing Director, Lead REIT Equity Research Analyst, Capital One Securities

Yeah, I mean, I guess. Well, sort of, but then, let me just go back to the Merrifield office building you mentioned in the prior question. That space was vacated by a defense contractor. Is that defense contractor space or is that general space?

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

It was defense contractor space. It was given back because of an M&A event, a big chunk of it. Another chunk was some contraction. The contracting tenant recently expanded again. That space, that building fits needs of defense contractors that need access to basically the Pentagon. It's connected by a metro rail. It makes it very convenient to the Pentagon.

Chris Lucas
Senior Managing Director, Lead REIT Equity Research Analyst, Capital One Securities

Okay, great. Thank you. That's all I had.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. Last question comes from the line of Bill Crow from Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Bill Crow
Managing Director, Real Estate Research, Raymond James

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. I've got three, but hopefully they're very quick. How much new supply not being driven by OFC is under construction in your market, your sub-markets?

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Oh, very little.

Bill Crow
Managing Director, Real Estate Research, Raymond James

Yeah.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Really none. You know, at the NBP, there is no other development that's active marketing against us within a service radius. In Alabama, there's certainly other development that's occurred in the city, but it's really servicing inbound corporate relocation activity, a lot of it, industrial manufacturing. There are businesses relocating to Alabama. There's no development that we're competing with that's active on the defense IT side. There's not that much development in Northern Virginia. The market conditions, across Nova, you've got 18%-20% vacancy in most sub-markets, except where we're located in the Route 28 corridor, which is one of the strongest markets in Nova.

Bill Crow
Managing Director, Real Estate Research, Raymond James

Yeah, that's kind of what I figured. That kind of leads me to the second question, which is the tenant retention. You know, you've got 20%-25% of expiring defense and IT leases that don't get renewed. Is it M&A? Is it program funding? What is the primary reason that they aren't sticking around?

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

There's always kind of a seesaw that happens with contract awards and recompetes, and it's fairly routine. We're gonna live through one in Redstone right now, where Boeing lost a major component of a contract, and they're gonna give us back some space. Another defense contractor won it, and we've leased them the space to take its place. There's some turn like that. You know, I would say over the long term, probably a third over the last four or five years has been M&A driven.

Bill Crow
Managing Director, Real Estate Research, Raymond James

Yeah.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

where there's consolidation in the industry. They typically keep the SCIF in the mission space. Any support space comes back, and it creates some turnover.

Bill Crow
Managing Director, Real Estate Research, Raymond James

All right. I figured I'd end with the D.C. Six question, which is simply what's going on with market rents there? You know, they had been going down. Have rents stabilized for some more pro-

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

They've definitely stabilized. The compression that occurred in 2019 and 2020 was really developer driven. There's so much spec development in data centers that they were bidding down, the power rate. I would characterize that as stabilized now. There's a huge amount of demand or inventory that got absorbed in those years. Price isn't really our discussion on the renewal. We've been settled on that for quite some time.

Bill Crow
Managing Director, Real Estate Research, Raymond James

Great. Thank you.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Good.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'll now turn the conference back to Mr. Budorick for closing remarks.

Stephen E. Budorick
President and CEO, COPT Defense Properties

Thank you all for joining our call today. We're in our offices, so please coordinate any follow-up questions through Stephanie. Thank you for attending.

Operator

Thank you for your participation today in the Corporate Office Properties Trust Third Quarter 2021 Results Conference Call. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Good day.

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