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Earnings Call: Q1 2021

May 5, 2021

Speaker 1

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CDW First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After today's presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions I would now like to hand the conference over to Britney Smith, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysts. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Joining me remotely today To review our Q1 results are Chris Leahy, our President and Chief Executive Officer and Colin Kiebo, our Chief Financial Officer. Our Q1 earnings release was distributed this morning and is available on our website, investor. Cdw.com, along with supplemental slides that you can use to follow along during the call.

I'd like to remind you that certain comments made in this presentation are considered forward looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Those statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Additional information concerning these risks and uncertainties is contained in the earnings release and Form 8 ks referring to the SEC today and in the company's other filings with the SEC. CDW assumes no obligation to update the information presented during this webcast. Our presentation also includes certain non GAAP financial measures, including non GAAP operating income and non GAAP earnings per share.

All non GAAP measures have been reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in accordance with SEC rules. You'll find reconciliation charts in the slides for today's web And in our earnings release and Form 8 ks we furnished to the SEC today. Please note that all references to growth rates or dollar amount increases in our remarks Today are versus the comparable period in 2020 unless otherwise indicated. In addition, all references to growth rates for hardware, software and services today represent U. S.

Net sales only and do not include the results from CDW U. K. Or Canada. Also, there was one fewer selling in the Q1 of 2021 as compared to 2020. Replay of this webcast will be posted to our website later today.

I also want to remind you that this conference call is the property of CDW and may not be recorded or rebroadcast specific written permission from the company. With that, Let me turn the call over to Chris.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Brittany. I'll begin this morning with an overview of Q1 results and performance and share our updated thoughts on 2021. Call will take you through a more detailed look at our financials, capital allocation strategy and outlook. We'll move quickly through our prepared remarks to ensure we have plenty of time for questions. We had a strong Q1.

Our results demonstrate the balance and Strength of CDW's business model and strategy. For the Q1, net sales were $4,800,000,000 12% as of last year on an average daily sales basis Adjusted for the impact of 1 fewer business day in the Q1 of 2021 than 2020 and up 10.9 Gross profit increased 5.1 percent to $795,000,000 Non GAAP operating income was $368,000,000 an increase of 21%. And non GAAP net income per share was The diversity of our end markets and solutions portfolio continue to serve us well, providing balance And driving our strong results as we overlapped last year's end of quarter surge in demand for remote solutions. During the Q1, we saw early signs of recovery as customers became more optimistic about the macroeconomic environment due to lower COVID case counts, Higher vaccination rates and new government stimulus. Customer spending in channels most impacted by COVID last year rebounded.

We continue to help customers with remote enablement, resource optimization, security, hybrid and cloud solutions and Digital Transformation. This past quarter customers allocated more technology spend to infrastructure needs, Driving growth for our solutions portfolio. Customers were focused on investments for the future, reconfiguring how they interact with customers, Strengthening hybrid environments, industrializing remote enablement and restarting projects that had been delayed due to COVID. We combined our services and broad solutions portfolio with our extensive technical knowledge and unique logistical and distribution capabilities To advise, design and orchestrate the best outcomes for our customers. Customers choose CDW for 3 simple reasons.

1st, Customers want a partner who know their business and their industry. 2nd, customers want to partner with broad and deep technical capabilities. And third, they want a partner who is focused on the optimal outcome, one who is agnostic across brand, technology and consumption model and has an informed opinion. These reasons are fundamental to why CDW outperformed in the Q1 and will continue to win in the marketplace. During the During the Q1, we remained focused on executing against our strategy and investing in high relevance and high growth solutions and services capabilities, including our acquisition of Amplified IT.

Amplified IT is a Google premium education partner and a leading provider of cloud based services, solutions and software for education customers and has been a partner of CDW since 2016. We share a similar culture that puts customers first and together we will accelerate our work to help customers, schools Achieved great educational outcomes through technology. Last quarter, we leveraged our distribution centers, extensive logistics capabilities, Deep vendor partner relationships and strong balance sheet and liquidity position to navigate supply challenges. Supply constraints and availability for client devices in some infrastructure products have been more challenging since the Q1 ended. Disruption is caused by both component availability issues and supply chain logistical issues.

The supply situation is fluid. Constraints will likely continue through the second half of the year and potentially into next year. Now let's take a deeper look at 1st quarter customer end market performance. Corporate declined 4% as customer spend continued to recover. Customer expectations That a hybrid environment will become the future work model, drove investments in notebooks and other remote enablement tools, while desktop and video sales declined.

Solutions performance was flat, a significant improvement versus the previous quarter as NetComm and data center projects returned. Small Business delivered strong growth increasing 12% as optimism improved. Our teams helped Net sales for our government channel decreased high single digits. Federal declined mid single digits. However, excluding our device as a service solution for the U.

S. Census Bureau, federal grew high single digits, led by engagement for the Department of Defense Across both transactional and solutions categories, the state and local channels decreased high single digits. Customers paused their spending as they took a wait and see approach during the quarter for a stimulus support under the new administration. Education again grew triple digits, achieving over 100% growth powered by K-twelve. K-twelve customers continue to focus on equity and access as well as ways to address learning loss, which drove strong transactional and solutions performance.

Customers turn to us for holistic capabilities and expertise to help schools enable a variety of learning models, remote, Hybrid, blended and in person. Higher ed increased low single digits. Growth slowed versus prior quarters as customers assess their to invest stimulus funding to prepare for returning students. Healthcare declined 2%, a meaningful improvement to prior quarters. Customers were more optimistic due to increased income generated from the return to elected procedures and the accelerated back seat nation pace.

Solutions returned to growth driven by customers refreshing and updating their data centers. Other, which represents our U. K. And Canadian operations increased over 20% on a reported basis. In local currency, the UK team increased net sales double digit And the Canada team drove high single digit growth.

Strong results for both markets were driven by fiscal year end government spending as well as continued investment by healthcare and education customers. Our first quarter performance benefited From the diversity of our customer base and from our deep and broad product portfolio, we continue to meet the critical demands of our customers. Transactions increased strong double digits and solutions returned to growth increasing low single digits. Hardware was up strong Double digits driven by excellent notebook growth across all channels leading to 26% client device growth. Software declined high single digits due to a decline in software licenses, but software gross profit growth remains solid.

While services decreased low single digits, when adjusted for overlapping the contribution from the Fensus project last year, services grew Strong double digits, driven by strength in our professional managed services. Services are fundamental to our go to market approach and a key enabler of our value proposition. We also delivered excellent growth in our cloud practice. Cloud customer spend increased strong double digits across all customer end markets, Driven by robust growth in infrastructure as a service, security, productivity and collaboration. We expect strong customer demand for cloud solutions to Our first quarter operating and financial performance reflects the combined impact of our balanced portfolio of customer end Our full suite of solutions and services across the IT landscape and our ongoing success executing our 3 part strategy for growth, they are important drivers of The diversity of our customer end markets served us well when macro or other external challenges impact Our extensive product, services and solutions portfolio positions us to meet our customers' total needs across the spectrum of The balance of our customer end markets and our offerings are especially relevant in the current environment.

And the final driver of our is our 3 part strategy for growth, which is to 1st, acquire new customers and capture share 2nd, enhance our solutions capabilities and 3rd, expand our services capabilities. Each pillar is crucial to our ability to profitably advise, Design, orchestrate and manage integrated technology solutions our customers want and need today and in the future. Let me share two examples of our strategy in action and how we helped customers last quarter. Our small business team helped a customer that Enable digital platforms to utilize natural language processing and machine learning to upgrade its technology infrastructure After it had been postponed due to COVID last spring. In early 2020, our account manager was working with the customer's technology team on a server upgrade at Primary data center.

COVID hit and the customers all capital expenditures. Our account manager did a great job nurturing the relationship So that CDW is well positioned to help our customer when the project resumes. Last quarter, the customer was more optimistic about its future prospects and ready to proceed. He got access to capital and wanted to take advantage of its employees still working remotely. The project scope was expanded to upgrade all infrastructure, Security, networking, storage, servers and software at its headquarters and its primary data center.

The customer relied heavily on our team for its expertise to design and implement the complex solutions. In 2020, customers had to react quickly to be impacted COVID. In 2021, we see that our customers are being strategic and proactively looking to technology to be more Effective and efficient in a post COVID world. As I shared earlier, we acquired Amplified IT at the end of the Q1. We are excited about the opportunity to go to market together with our combined strengths and to orchestrate complete hardware, software, services and cloud solutions that leverage our full stack capabilities and drive full outcomes for and deep engagement with our education customers.

We started to execute against this vision immediately. CDW's relationships and extensive contract vehicles with the State Department of Education enabled the customer frictionless access to Amplified IT's portfolio. The school system needed to enhance its communication and collaboration tool To serve its community in different learning formats, so it centralized and standardizes technology with the help of Amplified IT and CDW to provide the right Tools and support to its teachers and students across approximately 250 schools. We are excited about the addition of Amplified IT and see significant opportunity ahead. These examples highlight CDW's 3 part strategy for growth and demonstrate our relentless focus on The importance of M and A to add solutions and services capabilities to best serve our customers and how we leverage our competitive advantages I'm so proud of the way that our teams continue to deliver for our customers.

Our distribution and configuration centers remain fully operational. We expect our office coworkers to continue to be remote until at least this fall with plans underway by our REUNITE team to reimagine our future of work To continue to serve our customers and partners better than anyone else can. Let me now share our updated thoughts on 2021. We are increasing our outlook for both U. S.

IT market growth and CDW's net sales premium to market. We now expect the U. S. IT market growth to be about 4% and our top line to grow 300 to 400 basis points faster than the market in constant currency. For the Q2, we are encouraged about customer demand to date and how our teams are executing.

That said, we are cautious about the environment, which as I mentioned has become more challenged since the end of the Q1. While there are other wildcards such as new COVID variants, vaccine rollout, Return to office and potential policy changes, including infrastructure and taxes, our confidence in the prospects of the business have never been Technology will be more essential to the economy and will play an increasingly important role in the years ahead. We have confidence that we have the right strategy to best serve our customers and partners to enhance our competitive position and deliver sustainable profitable growth. CDW's role as a trusted strategic partner to our customers is more important now than ever. We will continue to do what we do best, Leverage our competitive advantages to help our customers address their IT priorities and achieve their strategic objectives and out execute our competition.

Before I turn the call over to Colin for his comments on the quarter, I want to say a few words about the CFO transition plans we announced earlier today. First, I want to thank for his contributions to CDW over the past 13 years and his strong leadership as our CFO since 2018. Colin has played a significant role in our evolution and consistent market leading growth as a public company, and he has established a truly best in class finance team. On a personal note, it's been wonderful to be a close colleague of Collins over 13 years and I've greatly appreciated his partnership. We are also appreciative of Colin's commitment to support CDW in the search for his successor and to remain on the Board to ensure a smooth transition.

With that, I'll turn it over to Colin.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. My 13 years at CDW have been among the most rewarding of my career, I want to thank you, the leadership team and all co workers for making CDW so special. I also want to thank the finance team for bringing it every day. I'll miss CDW, but I'm confident the company has never been stronger and its best days are ahead. Following a successful

Speaker 5

transition, I'm looking forward to retiring

Speaker 4

so I can spend more time with I'll start my prepared remarks with more detail on the Q1, move to capital allocation priorities and then finish up with our 2021 outlook. Turning to our Q1 P and L on Slide 8, consolidated net sales We're $4,800,000,000 up 10.2% on a reported basis and 12% on an average daily sales basis As we had one fewer selling day. On a constant currency average daily sales basis, consolidated net sales grew 10.9%. On an average daily sales basis, sequential sales decreased 3.9% versus the 4th quarter. 1st quarter sales were stronger than expected reflecting several factors.

On the demand side, the timing and slope of the recovery was better than expected Several channels most impacted by COVID-nineteen last year. Small Business, CDW Canada and CDW UK all delivered strong growth And declines in corporate and healthcare improved meaningfully versus the previous quarter. On the supply side, Our team did a great job navigating the challenging environment, leveraging our distribution capabilities and strong vendor partner relationships and was able to work down a portion of the backlog in Chromebooks, which was higher than normal coming into the year. This supply, coupled with continued strong demand from education customers, resulted in education net sales doubling compared to the prior year. Gross profit for the quarter was $795,000,000 an increase of 5.1% on a reported basis and 6.8% Including notebook mix in rate and overlapping higher margin configuration services for the Census project last year, partially offset by an increase in the mix of netted down revenues primarily software as a service.

Turning to SG and A on Slide 9. Non GAAP SG and A decreased 5.6%. The decrease was primarily driven by lower bad debt expense and lower travel and entertainment expense. If you recall, last year we increased our credit loss reserve as a result of the expected impact of COVID-nineteen. These decreases were partially offset by higher investments in coworkers.

Coworker count at the end of the Q1 was 10,186. Coworker count increased 204 from the 4th quarter driven by an increase of approximately 120 customer facing coworkers, including over 40 from Amplified IT. The increase in co worker count reflects investments to support high growth solution areas and the digital transformation of our own business. Year over year co worker count increased 82 driven by organic and inorganic investments in co workers to support high growth solution areas and our digital transformation, partially offset by cost management actions in 2020. GAAP Operating income was $323,000,000 up 31.6%.

Non GAAP operating income, which better reflects operating performance, was $368,000,000 up 21%. Non GAAP operating income margin was 7.6%, a record expense was $36,000,000 down 6.1%. The decrease was primarily due to a lower LIBOR rate and savings from last year's refinancing, partially offset by notes issued in April of 2020. Our GAAP effective tax rate shown on Slide 11 was 19.5%. This resulted in 1st quarter tax expense of $56,000,000 compared to $44,000,000 last year.

To get to our non GAAP effective tax rate, we adjust taxes consistent with non GAAP net income add backs as shown on Slide 12. For the quarter, Our non GAAP effective tax rate was 25.2 percent, down 70 basis points versus last year's rate, primarily due Lower global intangible low taxed income and lower non deductible expenses. As you can see on Slide 13, with 1st quarter weighted average diluted shares outstanding of 143,000,000 GAAP net income per share was $1.63 Up 40.3 percent. Our non GAAP net income was $249,000,000 in the quarter, up 24.7%. Non GAAP net income per share was $1.74 up 26.2 percent from last year.

Turning to the balance sheet on Slide 14. At March 31, cash and cash equivalents were $879,000,000 and net debt was $3,100,000,000 Liquidity remains strong with cash plus revolver availability of approximately $2,100,000,000 Free cash flow for the quarter was $101,000,000 as shown on Slide 15. This was lighter than a typical Q1, but expected given last record $1,200,000,000 of free cash flow, which benefited from timing and one time items. In Q1, we saw some of the timing reverse Priorities, purchasing amplified IT and returning $415,000,000 to shareholders, including $56,000,000 of dividends and 3 $8,000,000 of share repurchases at an average price of approximately $148 per share. Moving to Slide 16, the 3 month average cash conversion cycle was 22 days, up 2 days from last year's Q1.

The increase was primarily driven by a 2 day increase in DIO as we made investments in inventory to support customers through the choppy supply environment. Turning to capital allocation on Slide 17, our priorities remain the same. 1st, increase the dividend in line with non GAAP net income. To guide these increases, we will target the dividend at approximately 25% of non GAAP net income and to grow in line with earnings going forward. 2nd, ensure we have the right capital structure in place with a targeted net leverage ratio of 2.5 to 3 times.

We ended the Q1 at 2 times, up 3 tenths of a turn from year end. 3rd, supplement organic growth with strategic acquisitions. The acquisition of Amplified IT that Chris highlighted is a great example of this. We remain active in evaluating M and A targets. And 4th, return excess cash after dividends and M and A to shareholders through share repurchases.

Going forward, we expect to continue to move closer to our target net leverage range of 2.5 to 3 times through a combination of organic investments, M and A and cash Turn to shareholders. We continue to expect to return at least $1,200,000,000 to shareholders in 2021, including approximately $1,000,000,000 for share repurchases with the balance from dividends. Of course, as we always do, we'll Moving to the outlook for 2021 on Slide 18, the current environment continues to be challenging to forecast with a high degree of confidence. On the demand side, we are encouraged by the activity in building momentum, particularly with U. S.

Commercial customers where April writings for corporate and small business We're up healthy double digits on a year over year basis. We're also seeing good activity at CDW Canada and CDW UK. On the supply side, uncertainty has increased since the Q1. Our backlog is higher than normal and increasing with lead times extending and visibility challenged at Notebooks, certain Chromebooks, displays and pockets of infrastructure hardware are becoming more constrained. Net demand, particularly with commercial customers, feels stronger than 3 months ago, but supply is more challenged.

With that context, our updated outlook is for the U. S. IT market to grow approximately 4%. We expect CDW net sales to grow 300 to 400 basis points faster than the market in constant currency, including the contribution from Amplified IT. Currency is expected to be a tailwind of approximately 60 basis points for the full year, assuming exchange rates of $1.36 to the British pound and $0.79 Moving down the P and L, we continue to expect non GAAP operating income margin to be in the mid 7% range for 2021.

We now expect non GAAP constant currency earnings per share growth in the low double digits, Call it 11% to 11.5%. Currency is expected to contribute an additional approximately 50 basis points to earnings per share growth. This updated full year outlook for non GAAP earnings per share is an increase of approximately $0.30 over last quarter. Additional modeling thoughts for annual depreciation and amortization, interest expense and the non GAAP effective tax rate are unchanged from last Moving to modeling thoughts for the Q2. On the February earnings call, we did not provide a first half, 2nd half sales split as we typically would because of the uncertainty.

Based on our current assessment, we expect the split to be approximately 48 2nd quarter non GAAP earnings per share to grow in line with full year non GAAP earnings per share growth. If supply turns out to be more resilient, enabling us to work down the backlog or keep pace with even stronger demand, We feel good about the health of the business and believe supply uncertainty is a question of timing across the next three quarters and potentially into 2022. Additional modeling thoughts on the components of cash flow can be found on Slide 20. Our long term free cash flow rule of thumb remains unchanged at 3.75 percent to 4.25 percent of net sales, assuming current tax rates. Given the timing impacts that contributed to 2020 significant over delivery, We continue to expect 2021 free cash flow to be at or slightly below the low end of the range.

We continue to expect CapEx to run approximately 75 to 80 basis points as a percent of net sales, slightly higher than the historical 50 basis points rule of thumb. As we mentioned before, we believe now is the time to accelerate investment in digital transformation in our own business, enabling us That concludes the financial summary. With that, I'll ask Christal to open it up for questions.

Speaker 1

Your first question comes from the line of Amit Dayanani with Evercore.

Speaker 6

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Colin, best of luck on your retirement. It's really been a pleasure working with

Speaker 3

I guess, maybe your first question

Speaker 6

is the one I'm getting asked by clients a lot is, maybe just step back and talk a little bit of what's I think the gross margin, at least on a sequential basis, I heard you on the Yauru, but what drove the drop on a sequential basis, the lowest we've seen in a while? And then how does your gross margins progress as we go through the year?

Speaker 4

Thanks, Amit, and good morning. On both the year over year and sequential basis, there are some recurring things. I would say the biggest driver is Product margin, particularly driven by notebook mix and rate. Obviously, we've had strong growth in Chromebooks and Education. The other thing that happened in the quarter was really strong growth in our U.

K. And Canadian businesses. It was Fiscal year end for many of their public customers, we had a very strong fiscal year end in those markets and a lot of those deals Tended to be in client devices. So you have public and client device end market mix internationally. In the previous quarter, Q4 benefited from strong configuration services as we decommissioned the majority of the devices we had from the census device as a service Last year, a little of that spilled over into the Q1, but for the most part of for the most part it was done.

As you think about gross margin, as you know, we don't provide an outlook. It can bounce around from quarter to quarter based on a variety of factors. We do tend to focus on the NGOI margin Because of our variable cost structure and that's more variable, but if I can just share some thoughts on some of the puts and takes to gross margin as you think about the next couple of quarters. I think from a tailwind perspective, I would expect the longer term secular trend to 100% gross margin items and as well as us continuing to grow our higher margin services businesses. In terms of headwinds, we've talked about this for some time, but there's hardware mix and particularly within hardware mix, Client devices and Chromebooks.

And then from a product margin perspective, I think some things to think about. There's that Continuous commoditization that you can see, I think we went through a unique period over the past couple of quarters where we saw customers Prioritizing speed and execution over price, we're beginning to move into what I would describe as a more normalized Customer behavior environment where customers are willing to wait a little bit longer and prioritize price over speed Because the urgency and kind of existential threat of the pandemic and business continuity isn't as great as it was just a few quarters ago. From an OEM perspective, obviously, there's some supply challenges out there and OEMs aren't getting as Aggressive on special pricing programs as they might with a channel more normalized environment. So I think you have a lot of things going on there. We have been through cycles Like this before, I'd point to the 2018 to 2019 timeframe, where our top line kicks up into the high single digits or even low double digits as we sell a lot of hardware, We exceed our 200 to 300 basis point premium by a meaningful amount, but gross margin has a 16 handle on it.

And I think That's part of the power of the business model is that we pivot to where the profitable growth is and that's why we do focus on non GAAP operating income and EPS and free cash flow.

Speaker 6

That is really helpful. And if I can just follow-up with Chris on a different topic. Chris, you've seen this hardware business grow double digits, software and services is lagging somewhat. I'm curious, is this something normal that you would expect As we are at the onset of the macro cyclical recovery and perhaps as IT budgets become more normalized, should we expect that software and services business to start growing In line with my classes and CDW averages maybe by the end of the year or something. But I'm just curious how you stack the hardware versus software and services as we go forward?

Speaker 3

Yes. Good morning, Amit. And I'd say, look, as customers continue to work through their budgets and Keep a close eye on the macro environment, the vaccine rollout, that's really going to dictate where they're Spending and if we continue to see this uptick in hardware refresh. In terms of software, look, that can be Fairly lumpy as we've talked about before, depending on the mix of software. This quarter, we saw license shorter term license And licenses are not as strong, but I'll tell you SaaS continues to be quite strong across the portfolio.

So We don't expect software to start to diminish as we move forward in the year, notwithstanding a hardware refresh. Still critically important obviously to the full stack. So I think we'll continue to see software strong. It's just going to bounce around depending on what's Being bought and whether or not it's netted down.

Speaker 6

Perfect. Thank you and congrats on a nice quarter.

Speaker 3

Thanks Amit.

Speaker 1

Your next question comes from the line of Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 7

Thank you. Good morning. Just a clarification first. I think IDC forecasts hardware and software Growth of north of 6%. At this point, why do you think 4% is the appropriate forecast?

If you think about the increase since 3 months ago, is it largely PC and Chromebook driven or is it more broad based than that? And then I have a follow-up.

Speaker 3

Okay. Katie, it's Chris. I'll take that. I think I heard you cut out for a minute, but I think the question was on the IT market rate of growth given some of the Forecast out there. And as you know, we triangulate from a variety of sources.

We do customer input, partner input, And I'd share a couple of thoughts. I think the forecasts tend to lag current market conditions for the 3rd party analysts. And while demand feels very healthy, I'm not Sure how many of the external forecasts are incorporating the impact of supply chain that we've talked about. And the CIO surveys, if you focus on that, they are a little more

Speaker 7

And is the increase in your mind largely PC driven or is it more broad based than that?

Speaker 3

I would say it's over weighted to hardwearing clients, but it's really broadly driven. The demand is across both transactional and solutions and that's driving the market rate of growth in our view.

Speaker 7

Thank you. And Colin, just A follow-up for you. You mentioned strong writings growth in the April quarter. Can you just talk about The gap in the last 3 months or so between writings growth and revenue growth and whether that gap That's increased as you moved into April given the supply constraints.

Speaker 4

Yes, Katy. What I would say is we came into the year with a higher than normal backlog. And While there were some ups and downs as we went through the quarter and some ups and downs by end market, by the time we ended the Q1, The backlog was relatively consistent with where it was at the beginning of the year. So that would tell you that Writings and sales generally kept pace with each other. Where we've seen the backlog increase has been more Subsequent to the end of the Q1, and that would tell us that we're writing well ahead of shipments.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you. Congratulations on retirement, Collyn.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Your next question comes from the line of Shannon Cross with Cross Research.

Speaker 3

Thank you. I was just wondering with regard I know you touched on a little bit during the call, but stimulus, how are you

Speaker 8

I think government's going to have a fair amount of funding

Speaker 3

as well. So as you look ahead, given Your customer mix in that, how are you thinking about stimulus maybe through and how long do you think It will continue to benefit, I guess. Yes. That's a great question, Shannon. It will be a tailwind in our mind for sure.

I think about it a little bit like getting an elephant through the snake. It takes some time to actually get it moving through the system. So when you think about the 3 different stimulus Acts that have been passed last March and then last December and then most recently in March, there are funds that have been available for state and local K-twelve and healthcare in particular are where we see the most benefit for our customers. And We have a team actually that goes through the stimulus bills and understands where the dollars are going and frankly help our customers quite a bit and understanding how and where and when they can spend those dollars. So we see it as an absolute tailwind and our customers do look to us to help understand How best to utilize those funds?

If you look at the most recent, the American Rescue Plan in March, there's about $350,000,000,000 going to state and local and $130,000,000,000 going to K-twelve. So we certainly look forward to helping them use those and invest in technology As they come out of the current environment. Are there any specific areas that are targeted within stimulus? I mean, Is it continued Chromebook sales or will we see maybe a move up

Speaker 8

the stack from a hardware perspective?

Speaker 3

Yes, if we take K-twelve for We go to market with what we call customer centric solutions. So we're focused on those areas that are most strategic and important to our customers. K-twelve, for example, think of classroom transformation, think of school safety, think of networking augmentation. So, certainly up to the Starting with a consultative role and a design role and then bringing to bear our implementation and integration and management capabilities. But we K through 12 really turns to CDW and state and local healthcare who are going to be beneficiaries of the stimulus for the holistic capabilities that we bring to bear.

And at the end of the day, that actually helps them maximize the dollars they can use through stimulus because We know how to work those dollars through the needle. Great. Thank you so much.

Speaker 1

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Tindle with Raymond James.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thanks. Good morning. Chris, I wanted to start The growth premium versus the market, which you're raising today. And I think coming out of the last cycle, the growth premium contracted.

So I'm wondering, Is the raise today more reflective of device demand remaining stronger for longer? Or do you think that you're noticing structural changes Versus the last cycle that are enabling you to stay at an elevated growth premium regardless of product cycles.

Speaker 3

Yes. Good morning, Adam. Well, our premium does tend to be 200 to 300 basis Higher than the market when we start the year, we hold ourselves accountable for that. And When we sell a lot of hardware, as you know, which is recognized as full revenue, we tend to outperform that premium. So we brought it up to 300 to 400 basis points.

When you think about the mix of hardware, that seems to make a lot of sense to us. So if I just go through the math, if we take census out of the baseline, which contribute about 2 hundred and two forty basis points to the premium last year. We're looking at a good 500 to 600 basis points this year by bringing our Premium up those 100 basis points. So when you ask about whether or not we that's a kind of durable forecast or outlook for our I would say really depends on the mix. In years where we have high hardware, we tend to outperform because we recognize much of what we So on a full net sales basis in times when we have slower sales of hardware and we have more netted down items, that's when we'll See the top line more muted.

So we're hesitant to connect to, commit to a higher premium generally because of the mix of the business. And the beauty of the model is exactly that mix of the business. We've got the full range of IC products and we go where our customers need them when they need us. So I don't see us bringing that up to a higher level at any point soon, but rather toggling to where our customers need us.

Speaker 5

Understood. And maybe as a follow-up, Collin, congrats. And I'm sure there's going to be some aspects of the job that you won't miss, Like this one where I'm going to beat a dead horse on gross margin. But I do have to ask, I mean, Yes, I know there's notebook demand, but devices have been strong for some time. Sequentially, SMB and international grew most, which are among the higher gross margin segments.

But this gross margin compression is so much more than normal. So I guess the question would be on a like for like product basis, are you seeing Pressure on gross margin and why? Is there inflation or price increases that you're eating more of or sharing in some of the pain that's helping you to gain some share?

Speaker 4

Yes. Adam, I mean, we first, thank you. You're right. This is one of the Good job. I won't miss down the road.

But putting all the mix issues aside, we are seeing Some product margin compression in certain categories. And just to go a little bit deeper on some of the comments I made before, Again, I just I think 2020 was really unique in the way that customers were prioritizing speed Q1 overtaking every last basis point off the table in terms of their IT buying behavior. And I think now that we're moving into a different Phase of the pandemic where that mission critical nature of getting that IT purchase as quickly as possible just isn't there. We're seeing a return to kind of some of that more normal customer buying behavior. I would characterize the competitive environment as Competitive, not irrational, but we compete in a highly competitive marketplace.

From an OEM Perspective, they are obviously wrestling with higher input costs and supply challenges, Just right. And so because of that, that drives a couple of things. 1, they are not incentivized to Aggressively invest as much in the channel and special pricing programs and things like that, that they might in a more normal supply environment and a more Normal competitive environment where they're battling it out to gain share. And in some instances, they're taking those higher costs and passing them along in the form of price increases. Now we do work on a cost plus model as we've talked about over the years.

But if you just think about the math of the way a price increase works, if For argument's sake, we make $100 per unit of gross profit on a notebook and that notebook price goes up for by 5% or 10%, that So I think those are some of the dynamics that are driving Some of the changes we're seeing on product margin currently versus some of the preceding quarters. Understood. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Gabral with Credit Suisse.

Speaker 9

Yes. Thank you. And Colin also wanted to extend my congratulations on your retirement, all the best going forward. Chris, I guess, good to hear some momentum coming back into the business on the infrastructure side. I guess, I'm wondering if you could expand a little more on what you're seeing underneath there and talk about Trends across the data center in categories like server storage, NetComm.

And I guess taking a step back, I'd be Curious for your perspective on just how customers are balancing the desire to refresh or invest in their on prem footprint versus This push to accelerate the move toward the public cloud going forward.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Matt. Yes, let me start with a step back. If you think across Our customers, you hear quite a bit about when people are going back or returning to the office. And I'll tell you what, while certainly there you see in the near the couple of Larger organizations that are returning to the office pretty quickly in the summer, most of our customers around across commercial and small business are Still, I'd say, not rushing. They're still planning and they're still a little cautious because they've got employees on both sides of the Those who want to get back and those who frankly aren't ready to get back.

So first, I would just say we're in a time right now where As the vaccination pace might accelerate and we see what happens over the next couple of years, we've got to be patient for a couple All that said, clearly the hybrid work world is here to stay and our customers are Thinking and planning around how to have flexible, what are people are now calling high flex environment, hybrid and flexible environment. And so we are in the we are still planning with them. We are seeing some customers that have had just Old infrastructure and a real need to upgrade, get to it over the past couple of months. But we are Still heavily in the phase of, I'll call it, assessment to optimize, whether old plans to upgrade throughout the window and we start to move more to cloud, Which are now really readily available and of great interest. So what I would say in that is that we're still customers are still assessing And they're being more reflective.

As Colin mentioned, last year, there was just a kind of a rush to get business continuity. And now there's a more measured, reflective Strategic approach on what's going to be durable competitive advantage for the long term. So what does that all mean? We have seen customers spending more in infrastructure, hardware Structure, obviously, cloud is doing really quite well. We saw a server uptick.

Storage is getting stronger. One would expect we'd see NetComm Really come to life later in the year or mid year as customers are heading back to the office. But there's on prem hardware is not going to go away. It's just what's going to be most optimal. And as I said, customers are really weighing the benefits right now.

Speaker 9

That's really helpful. And I guess as my follow-up, I wanted to dig in a little bit more on the commentary for the Q2. And I think I heard Slight sequential growth and I know we're coming off of a really strong Q1 base. I guess if I look back prior to last year, the business was typically up Much more meaningfully from the Q1 to the Q2. So I'm wondering if you could just help bridge the gap a little bit and just speak to How much is maybe normalization on the education side or some of the supply challenges versus just the trajectory in the wider business?

Speaker 4

Good morning, Matt. Yes, I would say, abnormal education seasonality It is the single biggest driver here. If you look historically, what has driven, the increase in Sequential growth from Q1 to Q2, education is by far the number one factor when you look across our end markets. So we just come into The typical education peak season with a much stronger base and we've talked about several quarters now of unusual or abnormal Education seasonality. So I would say that's the first driver.

I touched on a couple other ones in my prepared comments, but again, Just an unusually strong public year end finish in the U. K. And Canada. I know it's Public year end every year in the Q1, but we just had a particularly strong finish this year. And then we also We are completely done with that and No census revenue going forward.

I think the other thing that I would think about and I made this comment in one of the answers earlier was that our backlog was relatively unchanged over the course of the Q1. If supply is more resilient than we think it's sorry, that's what I didn't think it's pretty but if supply is more resilient And we can begin whittling down that backlog or if demand is even greater and Supply can keep up with that greater demand. I think that could provide some upside in terms of sequential growth and into the back half of the year. We just don't have the visibility at this point though to build that confidence on supply into the full year outlook and into the 2nd quarter.

Speaker 9

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Your next question comes from the line of Ruplu Bhattacharya with Bank of America.

Speaker 10

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Colin, it was a pleasure working with you and wishing you the best for your retirement. My first question is for you as well. Can you give us some details on CapEx spend this year? What areas are you investing in?

And what utilization are your distribution centers And at what point would you need to invest in another facility?

Speaker 4

Thanks, Ruplu, and good morning. In terms of our own CapEx, again, we talked about this a little bit on the call, but A lot of that is going into our own digital transformation, and that can be Better tools for our sellers, more AI, how our customers interact with CDW and making transactions more frictionless as well as investments we're making in supply chain, both resiliency as well as flexibility. So I would think about CapEx going across those buckets. In terms of adding another distribution center, I don't know that in the next few years, we would have a build another 500,000 square foot distribution center. I think we would Look at more dynamic and flexible models, working with 3rd party logistics organizations and really thinking through how to Optimize our footprint across the U.

S. From a supply chain perspective.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thanks for the

Speaker 5

color. Okay.

Speaker 4

And I think you had a question on utilization. Yes, look, the distribution centers are busy. There's no doubt about that. Part of that is Our muscles and where we can bringing inventory in and configuring that and staging it for our customers and helping them through this choppy environment. So there is some capacity there.

It's tied. And again, I think we would use more of a Flexible model and more of a renting space in the short term as we need it until we get a better sense of what supply and demand look like over the longer term.

Speaker 10

Thanks for the details on that. My second question is for Chris. What percent of your coworkers are Currently working from home and given certain regions are going back into lockdowns, I mean, how do you think about that? And is the Updated revenue guidance for the year that you gave this morning, is that dependent on a certain percent of coworkers being able To go back into the customer sites and get acceptance for projects. So is the mix of coworkers working from home versus being able to travel Impact the revenue for the full year?

Speaker 3

Good morning, Ruffalo. Thanks for the question. Let me start with the In part first, our guidance isn't dependent on when or how many people we get back into the office or going on to customer sites. We've really done a great job. The team's done a great job of staying connected and staying productive.

So we're not it's not dependent on that. In terms of going back to the office and how we think about that, a couple of things. First of all, we have coworkers on both ends of the We've got some who are really eager to be back and some who are cautious until we get through, you know, the Pandemic more fully. So what we've done is we have created, we've created opportunities for customer for coworkers to be together We've also given guidance to our workers who are customer facing around getting together with Customers who would like to get together again in a safe way and that's started to happen. We also have customers who are very comfortable with our service Providing provision in a remote way, which we've been doing throughout the pandemic, but all but we also have customers who are now opening up Allowing us back on-site.

We have bases that are opening, etcetera. So I guess I'd say, look, we're doing very well from a productivity and connectivity perspective. We are starting to get together with customers in person and you can imagine it depends on what's happening within each state, for example, or each The UK just had their garden pubs open and that was a big event and customers do want to get together. But we're We don't really want to do this with hits and starts. That's really the key for us.

We want to be able to have our coworkers come back together that is continues our highly engaged in

Speaker 10

Okay. Thanks for all the details.

Speaker 1

Your next question is from the line of Jim Suva with Citigroup Investment.

Speaker 11

Thank you. As you start to see some mid and small sized businesses coming back to work and in person meetings and in person works, Are you seeing that they are kind of PC notebook centric weighted Or are they going back to kind of pre COVID mix level or any type of preference to what they're installing when they do come back to work?

Speaker 3

Good morning, Jim. I would say, if you were to take a scale of 1 to 100, how many are actually back in work, we're still very much On the lower end of the spectrum, we still have a very large number of customers who are needing to work remotely. For those who are Going back into the office, what we're observing is a continued investment in mobile employees, The ability to be in the office on a flexible basis, the ability to move around the office and use the office in a different way. Now the question is, what work are you doing in the office? And do you need to have even more collaboration spaces and the ability for your employees to have mobile devices So I would say our view is that the Flexible hybrid work environment is what the preponderance of our customers expect to be in over the long term.

And that includes Notebooks, the higher density of notebooks, obviously, more enterprise level collaboration capabilities. We do have some

Speaker 5

customers who are contemplating whether to

Speaker 6

have a desktop in the office

Speaker 3

and a notebook at home, Whether to have a desktop in the office and a notebook at home for coworkers, it really depends on the industry. Things like lockers and hoteling are really points of discussion now, but that's what we're seeing overall, if that's helpful.

Speaker 11

Great. And now that we're lapping 1 year of COVID, like for the education and government sectors, are they still Very much needing to catch up and do a lot more PC and Chromebook installations or are they kind of This summer are going to be in the procurement cycle for schools going back to school. Are they going to be like a little less notebook and Chromebook dependent Or are they actually going to be more because maybe there are some districts who are fully stocked and others who aren't or are they going to do more infrastructure? Just kind of curious of kind of what you view for that.

Speaker 3

Yes. I guess if I think about K-twelve education, I'll start with K-twelve, there are a couple of things. Device demand continues to remain Strong because there is such a gap to that 1 on 1 device ratio that schools are trying to get to for equity and access And also for something they're referring to as learning loss, these gaps that might have happened over the pandemic. So there's plenty of headroom For devices going forward, with regard to CDW, what we face are tough compares from last year. So if you think about our growth over last Very tough compares, but the demand is strong.

The other thing I would say is, as we're going into the next school year, schools are We're working with schools to figure out how to create the most optimal classroom and experience. And that would be a blended experience, hybrid experience, all in class. Schools really have, they're looking at the ways of learning that they can use technology within a classroom or outside the We're working the walls at the school in much more creative ways. So from an infrastructure, I'll call it networking in particular perspective, We would expect to see upticks there. And then think of audio and visual.

The older interactive flat Flat screen panels are getting old now, but there are newer availabilities of solutions that work better. So that's another opportunity to help really modernize the classroom. So net net, demand will remain strong with regard to devices, but the opportunity for infrastructure, Network augmentation and for video will be a good opportunity as well.

Speaker 11

Thank you so much for the details.

Speaker 1

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Sheerin with Stifel.

Speaker 12

Yes, yes. Thank you and good morning. I just wanted to ask another question regarding the client devices and the PC upgrade cycle that's Going on 3 to 4 years now, there's been talk obviously at some point that leveling off or being down, But we're also seem to be lapping, the 4 year anniversary when companies started to upgrade to Windows 10, and given the constraints out there, it seems like, you know, there's still backlog. So could you talk to, you know, the client devices and notebook upgrade cycle and and your thoughts

Speaker 3

Yes, sure, Matt. Let me we'll talk a little bit about maybe tailwinds and headwinds. So when we think about tailwinds, Certainly, the need for more remote devices and we've talked a lot about that today, whether it's remote enablement or enabled work or learning and device Then there are new use cases. We've seen a great uptick in tablets, for example, in terms of how our customers engage with their customers in new ways. So you've got Demand from there, you've got leverage, you know, get the ability to leverage stimulus.

We've got those dollars flowing through. And then we also have our corporate and small business Segments that are recovering nicely and the comparables over last year are pretty low. So we've got Some positive in there. Then you mentioned the refresh. Absolutely 2017 2018, we have seen and would expect to continue to see That refresh go on.

So we are selling into that. On the headwind side, look, we have big overlap Over 2020 in some of our segments, including K-twelve. And the economy is still a wildcard, though employment It's like it's picking up and that's been quite helpful frankly in the small business days with regard to endpoint solutions. And then the last thing I'd just emphasize is the headwinds is the supply Challenges that we're facing. There's a real lack of visibility there.

But otherwise, the demand for Client devices continue to be strong.

Speaker 12

Okay. And just the last quick one Regarding the headcount, you talked about, I think, 200 additional co workers, including 40 from the acquisition. But are you looking to continue to expand your co worker count this year given the relatively strong outlook for demand?

Speaker 3

Yes. We absolutely are going to continue to invest in our business, whether it's coworkers, other Acquisitions or digital transformation as Colin mentioned. So we certainly will continue to invest in our coworkers.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Speaker 1

Your next question comes from the line of Keith Housum with Northcoast.

Speaker 4

Good morning, guys. And I appreciate you guys getting in. And Colin, I'll echo congratulations on the retirement. In terms of the supply chain environment that we're currently in, Does CDW have any pricing power, I guess, with some of its customers, and the fact that they're you

Speaker 5

know, it's just hard to get some

Speaker 4

of this product into their hands? No. Keith, I wouldn't say pricing power per se. I think the Competitive advantage is probably more on the ability to secure supply to the extent it's available and getting at least our fair I think ultimately your ability to price through is a function of the competitive environment and the customers' willingness To wait, and I think that's what's different now versus, say, 2, 3 quarters ago where the customer wasn't willing or couldn't wait. So I don't know that there's a huge opportunity to pass along incremental pricing beyond what the market Fair enough.

Fair enough. In terms of the supply chain challenges that you're facing, are the challenges more on the logistical side or are they more on the component side that's Going to the final products. I would say it's both. The components, I mean, obviously, the processor shortage is well documented, but things like glass and It just all the challenges associated with that and then again the logistics challenges of Ports and canals and natural disasters and all of those things. So it is really a confluence of events that are impacting Okay.

Thank you very much. Thanks, Keith.

Speaker 1

We have no further questions. I will now turn Call back to Chris Leahy, President and CEO for closing remarks.

Speaker 3

Thank you. And thank you to everyone on the call today. I would like to really recognize the Incredible dedication of our coworkers around the globe and their extraordinarily committed approach to serving our customers, our partners and all of our CDW Our coworkers bring it every single day. And thank you to our customers for the privilege and opportunity to serve you. To our investors and analysts participating in this call, we appreciate you and your continued interest and support of CDW and we look forward to talking with you again next Thank you.

Speaker 1

This concludes today's conference call.

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