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Goldman Sachs 2023 Financial Services Conference

Dec 6, 2023

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay, great. So we're going to get started with our next session here. It is my pleasure to welcome Harvey Schwartz, CEO of Carlyle.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Hey, everybody. Great to be here.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

With over $380 billion in assets under management, Carlyle is one of the largest global alternative asset managers with presence across private equity, real assets, credit, and solutions. Prior to joining Carlyle, Harvey spent over 20 years at Goldman Sachs in a number of leadership positions, including being President and Co-Chief Operating Officer, the firm's CFO prior to that, and of course, many other roles before that. So we're obviously very happy to welcome you back, and good-

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Good to talk to you.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

First of all, it's fantastic to be here. A lot of familiar faces in the room, so it's great to see everybody. I missed all of you. Not all of you. That's like... But I'd say, like, 99% of you, it's really good to see all of you.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

There, there you go. So look, before we begin, Carlyle had a number of pretty big wins. Recently, you guys sold McDonald's China over 6x earnings. That's been 6x capital, which has been great. Closing a Lincoln deal, the stock was added to the S&P 500. So momentum is building, which is great.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

I would love to start off with just kinda your perspective on your first 10 months?

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Sure

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

- As the CEO of the company, what you've learned, and where are you spending your time?

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Great. Well, I won't spend any time why I'm at Carlyle. Most of you've heard that. It was really just too good an opportunity to pass up in terms of the brand. I'm sure we'll talk a little bit about the industry, the industry trajectory, the people, the team, the founders, and, and obviously, I'd have some degree of confidence that I could have an impact and help mobilize the team. In terms of the first 10 months, you know, I was very cognizant of the fact that I was a new CEO in a new company, and the overly simplified playbook had 3 parts to it. One, spend a lot of time with my teams internally, and that was about me getting to know them, but really as much them getting to know me, right?

New to the company to a lot of time with LPs. We stopped counting. I think I've met with close to 300 LPs around the world. I've been to the Middle East twice, Asia twice, Europe twice. So a lot of road time, obviously, all over the U.S. and North America. And, you know, the third part of the playbook was really identifying... I've referred to them externally as work streams and internally, really a couple of areas of strategic focus, where it would basically bring us all together as an organization, where we can identify areas of growth and opportunity. And that's the oversimplified, 3-part playbook.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. Well, let's build on that a little bit. In one of the earlier calls, earlier this year, you talked about some of the key strategic priorities. I think you narrowed it down to five: insurance, capital markets, private wealth, tech AI, and expense management. It's a lot to cover, so we're probably not going to get to all of that today, but I would love-

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

No, let's do all of it.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

There we go. Well, we only have 31 minutes-

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Okay, fine.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

So I'm not exactly sure if we'll be able to. But look, I would love to hear a little bit more about where you see the most significant opportunity. Where are you spending most of your time related to these issues?

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

There are no favorite kids in that list.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah, I love all my kids. I would say, like, the thing that's, which was sort of the thing we updated on the most detail would have been on the expense initiatives. I would say that's the lowest priority in terms of how we're thinking about, Carlyle. You know, when I traveled around the world, the opportunity set's pretty significant. And so if you think about what I fortunately had the privilege to participate in, when I showed up, you know, the platform itself, you know, across the $380 billion of assets, you have basically roughly $150 billion, what we call private equity, but of course, that includes real estate. We have one of the, I think, best real estate investors in the world. It's an enormous... It's an extraordinary team.

Just to give some people some insights into that, that team basically decided they wouldn't invest in office space or retail in 2013. It's a pretty bold call, by the way, back in 2013. And it speaks to sort of the quality of the investing culture, which we'll talk a little bit about, I think, as I'll touch on some of the things, some of the recent wins. So the investing platform itself is quite diversified across what I'd call traditional private equity, real estate, real assets, infrastructure, renewables, energy, and then, of course, you have the credit business, under $50 billion. And then the solutions business, our secondaries business, which I think may be one of the greatest acquisitions of all time, that the firm made long before I showed up.

And then, of course, you have the insurance business.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Right. So a ll of these things have opportunities for growth. Again, the reason I detailed out the work streams, 'cause I was bringing the teams together to make sure we maximize that. I've used capital markets as kind of the simplest.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Mm-hmm.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

To be effective in the capital markets business, you can either be, you know, best in the world at, as a Goldman Sachs, or you can position the way we position, which is less about committing capital and more about the raw material and the pieces.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Mm-hmm.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

And to be successful, you need a really...

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

World-class private equity franchise, you need a great capital markets team, and you need basically the cross-section of a Venn diagram of insurance clients, people you can distribute and share risk with, partners that we can share risk with, that basically are peers of ours.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Right. B ringing all these pieces together, in some cases, was really just about prioritizing a bit of reorganizational design and incentives. It's hard to go through any of those areas and not feel optimistic about the long-term growth trajectory.... I think that's a lot about Carlyle, the brand, the people, and what I've been fortunate enough to join. But I think a lot of it is about the industry trajectory.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Right.

If you take wealth, for just an example of one of the work streams, and I guess I am going to manage to go through each of them quickly. If you take wealth, for example, we've raised $45 billion through that channel. And when you think about wealth, you think about it as sort of basically feeder funds-

Mm-hmm.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

-and then the evolving interval product, where some of our peers have had great success. It is my opinion, maybe pick your sports analogy. I'm not a very good athlete. Pick your sports analogy, like top of the first inning-

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Mm-hmm.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

in wealth. This is a 10-20-year trajectory.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yep.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

What you need is?

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

excellent investors, an understanding of the client, and a brand. I've spent a lot of time now in the wealth space. I think this is an enormous opportunity, three years, five years, and sooner, obviously. But, we've made some resource additions in the space. I feel really, really good about the momentum across all the work streams.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Great. Well, we're going to unpack a lot of this, but before we go in, I would love to get your macro perspective as well. You've been through multiple market cycles, obviously, been in finance for a long time. You have the benefit of having a pretty diverse set of portfolio companies in private equity. What do you hear on the ground? What's your outlook for the economy for 2024?

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Okay, that's definitely not a 27-minute, 15-second answer, but I'll simplify it. So I would talk just macro. I'll give you my perspective. I think in my career, so I'm 59. I was born in 1964. Good time to be born, by the way. I think this is one of the most complex market environments we've seen in 30, 40 years. And I say that because a lot of the megatrends of deflation, globalization, geopolitics, monetary policy, regulatory trends, a lot of that is in the process of reversing to some degree, or at a minimum, slowing for sure. And I think it's very hard to unpack the tailwinds associated with that. And the other thing I'll say is, I know we all talk about the significance of a 500+ basis point rate increase-

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

But if you, if we were all sitting here in June 2021, and we just took, well, because we're in Goldman Sachs, market implied volatilities. If you took market implied volatilities, it's a 4 or 5 sigma event that we'd have a 500 basis point rise. And I was trying to frame that, so I asked my data scientist the other day, I said, "Hey, how much is that?" And he said, "Well, that's one in a million." I said, "Okay, what's one in a million?" He said, "Well, that's the equivalent of, if we flipped a quarter 20 times in a row, you'd always get heads," but I thought this was better.

Then he said, "One of the next 24 babies born in the United States is President of the United States." Like, that's how extraordinary what we've been through, and I think this recalibration of rates... Sure, we've seen the issues the UK had. We've seen Silicon Valley Bank and other bank issues. I think this recalibration of rates and what it means for forward rates, and I think people can become victims of recency bias. And because the vast majority of the people that are in markets today have experienced basically easy monetary conditions and extreme monetary conditions-

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yep.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

I think there's a sense that rates will revert back to some very, very low level, and my personal view is that's not the case. I think these headwinds, combined with a normalization of the rate curve, just means the cost of capital will normalize in a way that maybe should have been the case for a while. And I think that when we look at now our proprietary data-

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

So we have close to 900,000 employees, 30 countries. We have a huge proprietary data set. When you look at that, you can see that inflation peaked very specifically in June 2022, and you can see it roll off. And when I say inflation, I'm not talking about the headline inflation that we all read about. We're talking about, like, input prices that went from $1 to, like, $1.70. And you can see as portfolio companies start to adjust external prices, and they didn't even know they had price elasticity.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

And now we're seeing that sort of fade back. And so we're definitely past this inflationary peak. My base case is, yeah, we'll see a rate cut or two, but the notion that we'll see five, I think that's not anything we should be rooting for. I think if we see five, six, or seven rate cuts in the near term, it means we've got a market disruption, a pretty significant recession, or both. And so when I take the framing of kind of the mega trends, the local data that we have, this is sort of my own personal view, I think higher for longer than the market's expecting, and I think there's some degrees of uncertainty in there. So I would say short term, cautious.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

I think long term, now putting on my Carlyle hat, I think the opportunities are pretty, pretty extraordinary because some of the other data under the hood... I was just talking to Richard Ramsden before, and I said, I was looking at this data set, which I know everybody's going to have an opinion on this, okay? The data set basically of all the public companies in the United States, last twelve months, greater than $100 million, public companies, how many are, last twelve months, operating cash flow negative, free cash flow negative? And the number is about, about a third.... There's a lot of reasons for that. The primary reason is not because revenues have stopped growing, and the primary reason is not because they have too much debt.

The primary reason is because back in 2021, when they were getting financed, nobody expected rates to be 500 basis points higher.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Right.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

So interest rates are consuming a lot of cash flow, and some of these are great companies, and they're going to need capital from firms like ours, whether it's debt, preferred, equity capital. They're going to need to restructure themselves. They're going to need to do carve-outs. A lot of this won't happen tomorrow, but when you think about that framing over the next couple of years and what we do at Carlyle as fiduciaries and micro investors, we're providers of that capital.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yep.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

I think the trend is very powerful, but I think near term, cautiously optimistic. You know, the consumer seems really strong in our portfolio companies, and-

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

But I don't think this is debate about soft landing, hard landing. I think is a little extreme.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

I got you. I got you.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

I was probably more than you wanted.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

No, that was actually perfect.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Okay, great.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. So look, I know you said you don't have sort of favorite kids in your, you know, in the set of your priorities, but I do want to talk about a couple of things you mentioned. So solutions. You're in the middle of several fundraisers in the solution business.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Let's talk a little bit about how deployment and fundraising feels like in this market. That's number one.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Okay.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

And then number 2, you'll talk about adjacencies that you're looking to build around the solutions business. Can you talk a little bit more about that as well?

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Sure. So, primary from the solutions business, the easiest way to think about this is the secondary business. The firm bought it several years ago, AlpInvest Carlyle. We own 100% of it, and the... Basically, the fundamental nature of the business, as you all know, is they invest in primary. So they invest in primary firms, but they have a very large secondary business. They also have an adjacent financing business, and I think this is, like, the perfect, if you were designing, not designed this way, but if you're designing for diversification, this is the perfect diversification ballast. Because if primary is slower, because capital is not cycling back quickly through private equity conventionally, then LPs need liquidity, so you'll see the secondary business is very, very strong.

So, it's a very big growth area right now. There's a lot of appetite. I would say... I don't like sort of absolute statements, but I'll make one. I would say, in general, more opportunity than one can deploy into-

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

which you would expect, given the nature of the markets right now. And the financing business is a, it's a fantastic team. The financing business, I think, is a huge opportunity, but this is all in the nature of things like NAV financing and other things that we can do off that part of the platform.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Got it. And in terms of fundraising itself, how, how are things going there?

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Pretty good.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

All right, let's shift to insurance. It's another one on your priority list, and you guys obviously have an important partnership with Fortitude.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

You recently closed the Lincoln deal, so that was a nice win as well. Can you walk us through what that partnership with Fortitude means to Carlyle? How do other opportunities through that partnership stack up? What else could come out of it?

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

So for those who don't know, Fortitude, again, I walked into this. I had nothing to do with its creation. I'm just the beneficiary of being there. Fortitude is our partnership. It's a reinsurance business. What he's referring to, for those who didn't see, there was a transaction actually that took a couple of years to bring together with Lincoln National, that'll add on a longer-term run rate basis, about $40 million to the FRE of the enterprise. So, just for extra disclosure, we just did a 6-hour strategy session with senior leadership of the firm and the Fortitude team yesterday. And I think the optionality around this franchise is very powerful.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Within Fortitude, we have 170 actuaries. This is a very significantly built-out enterprise. I like the capital light model. There's a lot of things strategically we can do with the platform. That's my personal bias. You know, I come from a heavier capital committing world, but I like the capital light model. But there's a lot of flexibility around this in terms of the, what I'll call the core business, where the pipeline is quite good in terms of global transactions. It's a global business. But also the ability to do partnerships, strategic things around it. There's a lot of ways for this franchise to grow, and I think it gives us a, it gives us a really good base to continue to build off of. What I love about it is the optionality.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. How do you think about opportunities outside of the Fortitude partnership, right? So insurance as a space-

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

How meaningful of an opportunity is that for Carlyle?

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

So you know, there's a couple of very, I think, powerful long-term trends that, excuse me, you can anchor yourself to. My opinion, I think you can kinda anchor yourself to. It doesn't mean they're going to play out. There's a lot of discussion, obviously, about bank regulation and what it means for the banking sector and the banking sector's ability to commit capital to certain asset classes. You know, there's also a lot happening in the regulatory space in insurance.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yep.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Some of these trends will continue for a long period of time, where if you're an insurer and you're capital constrained, but you want to grow, you obviously can enter into a partnership with us. I think the dynamic nature of the flywheel effect of deployment of capital between what's happening with the banking system, that's a global event-

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

By the way, but the banking system and capital of the banking system won't provide going forward to market participants, the growth in insurance companies and the ability to either absorb assets or be partners with us, I think this is a flywheel effect when you fit it in with the capital markets business that has very, very long-term legs. I think these are 3, 5, 10-year trends.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. Yeah, that makes sense. Let's talk a little bit about private credit. It's been coming up obviously in every conversation over the last couple of days. It's not a new topic, and a lot of folks are excited about private credit for many of the right reasons. You talked about that as being a big opportunity for the firm as well. You already have a sizable credit business. A lot of it is CLOs, but you also have a lot of private-

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

I didn't get a download. What did Mike say? I just want to know what Mike said, so I don't, I don't completely contradict Mike.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

No, I'm kidding.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

I think he's bullish. Yeah.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

You thought he would... Yeah.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

I thought he was a little bullish.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

I could have assumed that.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mark Rowan, also-

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Good guy.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Kind of bullish.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Um,

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

So, no.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

But look, like, we would love to hear your perspective on kinda how you're thinking about building out private credit for Carlyle.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah. So at this stage, for those, again, not familiar, it's $150 billion across the credit platform. We're the largest CLO manager in the world. Again, I think this is... If you unpack it in terms of a fiduciary and a micro investor, the opportunity to continue to commit capital in this space is huge. And I know there's. Again, I've only been at Carlyle for 10 months, but this notion of private credit and public credit, I actually just think of it as credit. And I don't even really... You didn't go there, but I don't even understand why it's called shadow versus not. There's more light on this sector.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Everybody talks about it. I think that I'll go back to what I said about public companies before.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

The need for capital for public companies that we and others in our space can provide, I just think the demand will be very, very high over the next couple of years.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Right.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

I feel really good about the problem. So when I say, what do I see, sort of like natural growth, just natural tailwinds, the insurance space, credit space, the secondary, like, you're hitting all the good growth stuff.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Let's talk about the wealth channel for a little bit as well.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

It's almost like I still pay you. You know, when I used to pay you - and I used to answer, ask all the questions, it was great, but now you're asking the good questions.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

I think I might like this, though. I don't know.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah, I'm going to get bad feedback on my team for saying that. Yeah.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Well, let's talk about the wealth channel.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

So, again, one of your bigger priorities, and the thing I want to zone into particularly is the democratized products.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

You guys do have a product in the space already. What's-

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

True.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

What, what's the vision there? What's the competitive edge? How are you thinking about going after this, this opportunity?

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

I love this child. Love this child. A lot of this is about brand recognition, and Carlyle can get a lot of brand attention.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

The team has done a great job, building out. We have one product in credit called CTAC. It's growing very steadily. Just recently, we announced a product in the secondary business.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

I think... When I think about the wealth channel, I think what you need to have is great investing performance, the right product fit for the client. Extraordinarily important, because this is going to be a 10- or 20-year growth space for the industry, and you have to have brand recognition. The diversified product that we have in credit or the diversified product that we have in secondaries are the perfect kind of diversified product for the client base. This is a space where... You know, when I first showed up, I probably didn't think I would spend as much time in, but I spend a very significant amount of time in this space, really trying to unpack it and understand it and how to bring the resources together at the firm.

So this is a very powerful long-term growth area for us.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yep.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

I feel really good about it.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Got it. Okay, let's talk about one of the kids that is not on the priority list, but it's a big one, and it's an important one. And I don't want to diminish the importance of private equity, but we should obviously talk about it.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Sure.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

It is still the largest contributor to management fee for the firm today. We know the cyclical issues in the marketplace with difficulty in fundraising. You know, LPs are not getting cash back, Denominator Effect. There's a lot of issues. So help us kind of break this down a little bit, what it means for Carlyle. How much of this is simply cyclical in terms of slower fundraising versus anything Carlyle specific that you see in your private equity business that could be a bigger challenge? And how do you see the broader corporate equity opportunity set evolving over the next several years?

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

So I'll only make one... I'm not big on long-term predictions for those of you who used to work with me here, just because there's a lot of uncertainty in the world. I'll make one long-term prediction. Private equity asset class, asset class will be much, much bigger over time. It may hesitate here, it may pause here, it may not grow for a little bit because it grew so quickly. It will grow, I think, very powerfully over the next three, five, ten years. In terms of Carlyle, you know, hard not to love the kid that's kind of the soul of the place, you know? And the footings, I really like the design because it's geographically focused. I think there'll be a lot of unique opportunities from an idiosyncratic perspective, whether you're in Europe or you're in the U.S. or you're in Asia.

We're in the process of, you know, when I first started traveling, one of my early observations, I hadn't been to Japan since before the pandemic, and for those of you who've been to Japan, it's pretty extraordinary what's happening there. I'm just talking from a macro perspective. We have a great Japan fund. They're raising money. I have to be careful what I say about the specific fundraisers, obviously, but there's a lot of appetite. But I think you're right. I think the industry is going to go through this period for a little bit of indigestion.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

I'll go back to where you started because you talked about, for those who didn't see, he referenced that we monetize an asset that our team in Asia had invested in back in 2017, McDonald's. We went into partnership in China.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

That transaction kind of really illustrates, as a fiduciary and as a micro investor, why Carlyle is special. I'll walk you through it for a second 'cause we just did a global town hall this morning, and X.D., who runs our business, been in the firm for over 20 years. When you look at the impact they had on that franchise in McDonald's in China from 2017 to 2023, where we just sold it to McDonald's, and it increased in value 6.7 times. He went through a staircase build of value creation.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

If I said to you, I won't do this, but if I said to you, "Hey, how much of that was about leverage?" My guess is most people in the audience would say, "Well, a lot of it was about leverage 'cause money was cheap, and da, da, da, da." It's like 1.6x of the 6.7x.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

It's all about operational improvement, working with a great partner, picking a fantastic brand like McDonald's, being in a good demographic. I mean, they added thousands of restaurants, and even that, when I say leverage, is really about leveraging cash flow, so I'm even overstating the leverage factor. So I think, again, when you look out over the next couple of years, and I could be wrong 'cause my crystal ball is no better than anyone else's, and I can give you my view on rates, but I'll just tell you my opinion. Nobody knows where rates are going, and if they tell you they do, and they get it right, I think they're lucky, and they're more likely to get it wrong. But I'll always give you my base case.

But I think that when you look out over the future, the demand for capital and the value proposition for our teams, 'cause they've been doing it a long time, and they have the expertise. So will one or two funds be smaller? Sure. Will some be larger? Yes.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

I don't spend a lot of time stressing about it.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Gotcha. Let's talk about expenses and margins. You mentioned that's a priority. You kind of named it, I think, in one of your earlier earnings calls-

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

-that you think the operating margins of the company have more room to go. You've outlined $40 million, I think, of run rate expense savings already and working on more. But clearly, Carlyle is a growth firm, and you guys have a number of initiatives at play that will require investing. So how do you sort of balance these two dynamics while trying to improve fee-related margins and cutting costs and investing at the same time?

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

I think, I think the data's really important around margins. I think for me, it's just an output, right?

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Strategy fee... It's like a first principles thing. Any business, by the way, I think, you know, if it was a portfolio company, we wouldn't drive the portfolio company to a margin. We would drive the company around a plan. And so for me, it's not a question of, well, the margin has to be a certain place. It's a question of what is the most disciplined, thoughtful way to run the company in a way that allows us to invest in the secondaries business or the wealth business, or grow the insurance business or the credit platform, and if other parts of the firm or our real estate platform, where we need to invest in a moment and in other areas.

But I do think it's really about creating absolutely as much operating flexibility as we can, and I just think that's good business.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Right.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

So, you know, John and the team, and before John, Curt started a process earlier this year. I'm, I'm pretty impressed with everything they did. They actually were able to beat. I didn't give them any timelines, but the progress just came together a lot faster than I thought it would.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Right. I gotcha. Let's spend a couple of minutes on capital management and your priorities there, both with respect to M&A and potential return of capital. I know back when you were CFO at Goldman, share buybacks is something you did a lot and you enjoyed doing, and, you know,

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

I think I set a record, by the way. I'm just gonna say it. I could be wrong, but I think I set it. Not at Goldman, I just mean across all regulated banks.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Well, the price was right. So if you, if you really think about the amount of balance sheet flexibility you guys have, the amount of accrued carry you have that is eventually gonna turn into cash, that gives you a lot of firepower.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

How do you think about strategic M&A versus buybacks at this multiple?

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

I think... Let's back up. Let's first of all discuss how I think about the flexibility of strategic M&A. If I had a hole, or I felt— a hole is not maybe the right language, but if I had a part of the business, like if I didn't have a secondaries business and I was really desirous of a secondaries business, then I might say, "Okay, look, I think there's a lot of value in a secondaries business," but I have one. If I didn't have Fortitude and I thought I really needed an insurance platform, I might say, "Okay, that could be accretive-

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

over an extended period of time, relative to returning capital." But a lot of the footings are in place, and so, I've never really been in the habit of someone who's saying, like, "Oh, we think this about our stock or not." But you said it. I think that... I think the valuation's pretty modest by any standards, and so, I would- the short answer, I would say, because I've given you a long one, the short answer I'd say is, "Open to anything, because I don't think it'd be wise not to." And I think the, the team and my board feel that way. But narrowly, in terms of how- if you want to know my thinking about this, and I know John, after being 16 years as a FIG investor, it's just math for me-

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

... and for the team. And so in some respects, it's really just about relative value and where we think we can get the maximum return for the enterprise, for our LPs, for our shareholders, and that's how we'll think about the marginal capital deployment.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

... Is there anything that's more glaring with respect to inorganic initiatives that you feel like you still needed to pursue? I know you said you feel good about insurance, you feel good about solutions, but is there anything else out there on the map that you're like, "You know, we really need to get bigger here faster, and inorganic is kind of the way to go?

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

No, I'm not feeling, I'm not feeling that. There's no shortage... This is as much as I'm gonna give you, okay?

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Because I know you really wanna go here. And I say that with all the greatest fondness, and I'm saying that 'cause, you know, we worked together a long time ago. There are no shortage of partnerships out there and people wanting to partner with Carlyle. But no, I'm not, I'm not thinking that way at all.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. Great. All right. Well, before we wrap up, I just have a question around the stock itself, and that kind of goes back to the first conversation we had when you took on the CEO role. You talked about a lot of value-

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

that you see in the shares. Your compensation structure is actually very much aligned with that, and it's very public.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

I think 100%.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Um-

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

So talk to us a little bit about the catalysts that you see, on the horizon to unlock that value for shareholders. Not next quarter, not maybe next six months, nine months, but over the next several years.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Well, you know, what I think I spoke about pretty openly when I accepted the responsibility was that—'cause someone asked me, and maybe I certainly did in investor meetings, I might have even talked about it on a call, was that, when I was approached, and I looked at the enterprise, and I just sort of broke it out on a piece of paper. At the time, it was like $3.5 billion of accrued carry. There was $1 billion in cash, $2 billion in debt. It's kind of an extraordinary debt structure and, you know, like, I think there's some 50-year piece of paper that they issued at, like, 5%. And the founders at the time owned something like 30% or 27%, so it was very closely held.

When you start to break down all that math, the market cap of the company, I think, was something like $10 billion. It's very hard not to look at that, you know, the Carlyle brand, and not think there's a huge value opportunity there. That was sort of me, you know, as I entered discussions with the board and the founders about joining the company. So, now that I'm here, and I'm inside, and I've spent 10 months talking to LPs and working with my team, yeah, I feel good. I feel good.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

All right.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

I feel good.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Well, we'll leave it there.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Yeah.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Harvey, great to have you back here.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Feel good.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thank you for doing this.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Hey, everyone, it is really nice to see everybody.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Happy New Year. Enjoy the holidays. Alex doesn't treat me any specially, that's for sure. Because, unfortunately, I don't pay him anymore, but anyway, that's why.

Alexander Blostein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Harvey Schwartz
CEO, The Carlyle Group

Everybody, thanks very much. Great to see everybody.

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