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19th Annual Needham Technology, Media & Consumer Conference

May 14, 2024

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

All right, welcome to the 19th annual Needham Technology and. I cover the CommTech sector here at Needham, encompassing broadband networking and cloud communications. Really thrilled to have Clearfield here with us today, a leading provider of fiber connectivity, helping service providers reduce high costs associated with deploying and managing and protecting and scaling their networks. Really happy to have CEO Cheryl Beranek and CFO Dan Herzog with me today. Welcome.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Thank you very much.

Daniel Herzog
CFO, Clearfield

Thanks for having me.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Great. Well, let's start with how we got here. It's, I feel like I've been in this business for 25 years, and I feel like I've lived 2 decades in the last couple of years. But maybe just maybe just unpacking the last quarter a little bit. You know, did it come out generally how you thought it would? And talk to us, talk to us about some of the trends you saw in the most recent March report quarter.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Well, you know, we as an organization and as an industry, you know, are coming off of an amazing ride after the pandemic. And, you know, during the pandemic, it was obvious that high-speed broadband was an absolute need. It was not a wish or a want, and fiber-fed broadband was the means by which to make that happen. So for those of you who are new to Clearfield, we grew through that on a very rapid basis, flying through $100 million, hitting $140 million, then $250 million during the height of the pandemic. But unfortunately, as many of you know, there's now been the overhang associated with inventory. So this last quarter, to more directly respond to your question, you know, we saw a lot of that inventory continue to be used.

It was the end of our winter season, and build season starts now in April and runs through October. And so, our numbers came in a little bit higher than what we had forecasted. And the drivers behind that were really the opportunity to kinda get started again in the season. We saw orders pick up, you know, with the book-to-bill hitting 1.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

for the first time in, probably 5 quarters.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Backlog went up couple of million dollars. So I saw it as a quarter of momentum.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

and a quarter of a restart, kind of a fresh start for the organization while we're still continuing, you know, some of the inventory issues.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Our thought as we go in, you know, into the future is that we're going to see some areas in which there are—I've said this before, but I'll repeat it today—of forks and knives, that we have customers who have everything that they need except for the knife, right?

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

and so we're getting you're filling in orders in different places, whereas other customers are doing a fresh start.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

So new customers coming on board. So we are really using, you know, this year as a really transition year for our customers, a transition year for the organization as we build, you know, infrastructure and support and the processes that, you know, when we were growing 90% annually, we just didn't have the, you know, the bandwidth by which to put together.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Sure. Great. And Dan, maybe you can unpack a little bit the margin, what's happening with margins in the last few quarters and how you see that trending forward.

Daniel Herzog
CFO, Clearfield

Yeah. So there's a kinda different ways to look at that in that we've, we do have some excess, overhead, labor and overhead, you know, capacity things there. So since we've, upgraded our facilities to added about 400,000 sq ft, so we do need volume to, to, improve those margins. So right now, we're at a little bit of a headwind with that. So as the volume returns, those will go up. We also have some non-cash inventory reserves that we took that because we're out of balance with the inventory levels that we have for the long-term market with, you know, our quarterly sales here. So we have some non-cash things. So if you would have taken out the non-cash inventory reserves, our margins would have been somewhere around 19% for the quarter.

You know, use that kind of a thing as a baseline, and then you ratably go up as the volume returns.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah. Great. So, here, you know, in the first half of 2024, still pretty challenging, Cheryl. You know, I, we heard commentary from some of your peers about a pickup in orders as well. I mean, your two peers, CommScope and Corning, both, you know, sounded, you know, cautiously optimistic, constructive on kinda order flow inflecting. Are you seeing a similar—you mentioned you hit a book-to-bill just over one, but are you seeing similar-type trends on the order front in terms of the linearity in the quarter and?

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Yeah. I think you, you know, cautiously optimistic is a really good phrase as to where we're at. We're definitely seeing what we believe is a U-shaped recovery and that this quarter, you know, ending in March was our, you know, was our bottom of our U, and then seeing a gradual recovery moving forward. So it's, you know, you know, we're starting to see the world, you know, for what it is, that, you know, high-speed broadband is an absolute requirement, and there's different ways by which to put it into play. And we've validated that the take rates for fiber have been extremely strong. We've seen, you know, 40% take rates and above, in different places.

In fact, as an industry, we saw that 35% of all new fiber lines that were deployed were actually deployed as a second fiber option, showing a competitive position in which, you know, the market has seen that, you know, there's such a return on investment for high-speed fiber, that two providers are actually going after the same subscriber. And I think that competitive position is exactly shows a natural marketplace that will continue to grow. And that's all happening without a whole lot of the big government programs.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

So self-funding, you know, in that competitive world.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah. I'm sure. Michael Render did some pretty great analysis, I thought, in terms of his recent report on the accelerating buildout of second fiber offerings.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Right. Exactly. You know, when you, the cable organization, you know, has benefited and has enjoyed the 80% share in residential broadband. But now with the ability to get your content over the top, you know, when a telco comes in with a gigabit fiber service, you know, all of a sudden, that's a real competitive threat, you know, to the cable provider. So we're seeing cable providers respond. We've seen, you know, about, you know, we in addition to our business being predominantly what we could call community broadband or the smaller providers, we also have an emerging business in the cable world.

We're with cable guys saying, you know, "We're just gonna go all the way to the end of you know, let's you know, DOCSIS is good, and it's great, and it's served us well, but it's not the future." And so a lot of Tier 2 cable guys are working with us for fiber all the way to the home.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Great. And in terms of your recent quarter and kinda your outlook in this first half, how do you handicap those different segments across your community broadband, regional and national and cable?

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Right.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Relative to kind of growth rates and where they are in their inventory situations? Maybe you can.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Yeah. The larger the provider, the more inventory they have.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

And so the large regionals have definitely invested in an inventory position as well as the cable organizations. So, you're really kind of masking the actual deployment, thereby the amount of inventory that they have. And so that gap between deployment and revenue shift by manufacturers such as us is much broader than the reality of the activity that's happening in that space. In the Tier 3 space, you know, there's more deployment as needed. But what we are seeing in the Tier 3 space is a bit of a, I would say not a lull, but a bit of a, like, analysis.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Really what is right where and when and what type of federal funding should they use.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

And so, as a result, with the interest rates going up, the Tier 3 space is unfortunately not growing at the rate that we had originally anticipated for this year.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

You know, I think, we're getting some of those leading indicators before others because of the fact that we're so close.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

To the Tier 3s.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

We don't see it as bad long term. You know, but we are seeing that the government funding programs are delaying some of the investments that they, you know, might have made.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

On their own.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yep.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

I'd offer kind of an analysis of a program that was the last time there was big government programming.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

You know, which is the American Reinvestment.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Reinvestment broadband stimulus back in, you know, the Obama world.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

That's right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

you know, that program was put into place in early 2009, and if you look back in the fiber industry, 2009, 2010 were really slow, because it was a means of evaluation.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

But then 2011, you know, we were ready, and off we went. And so you can see it in Clearfield's numbers, but you can see it in the broader base numbers as well. So that's where we think we're at. We're in, you know, the low before the big builds.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

I don't think we could be better positioned to be able to take advantage of it.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Definitely. I think some of Render's work showed that the rural communities have some of the lowest fiber penetration today, especially if they're served by the big tier ones.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Absolutely. And,

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

So,

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

You know, we see it across you know, you look at, you know, the government programs are designed for, you know, 12 million homes that are very distant. They have long distances from their neighbors. They are.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

difficult environments. And so that is exactly the space in which, you know, we can, you know, do best.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

It isn't necessarily that it's just where a community broadband provider has its footprint, but it's the footprint near that they can expand into and CLEC over.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Sure. Adjacency.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Adjacency.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Attack, attack your neighbor.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Absolutely. And,

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

So we've seen it in northern Minnesota over the last, you know, just a good example for us because we're so close to it, living in Minneapolis, you can get fiber to the cabin in northern Minnesota for all the lakes that are up there. And I don't have fiber to my house in a Tier 1 suburb, because, you know, the means by which for the adjacent CLEC opportunities in northern Minnesota have been fabulous, you know, rural co-op Paul Bunyan Communications and others, have really benefited from that.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yep. Exactly. Well, let's unpack some of these government programs here just to help the audience understanding. There generally is kinda some investor confusion about these and how they layer on. Let's talk about RDOF. Let's talk about, you know, the ARPA-related projects and then BEAD. So, you know, walk us through RDOF, kinda where that has come from, where it's going to, where we are in that RDOF cycle.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Right. Okay. So RDOF had two different, they put $20 billion into RDOF.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yep.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

The first $10 billion was awarded to unserved homes. And that was an auction that went into play, and they rolled out about $9 billion. Unfortunately, they rolled it out not as systematically as they should, and some of it went to the satellite services, and others who really couldn't fulfill on their promise.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

What they did do on a really good basis is they, if they bid a certain speed at a certain price point, they held them to it.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

They pulled back the money that was awarded to the satellite groups, so that kinda went back into the bank. But others now are in the middle of a four-year rollout. I think we're in year three of the four-year rollout. That a lot of it went to Charter and then a bunch of small, different organizations. And so RDOF has worked well from a kickoff in those spaces. In the cable worlds, we saw it as being a little more in the hub collapse world, a little more node funding.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

to be able to get fiber closer. And then in the smaller community, smaller providers, it truly was a fiber-to-the-home play.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

So early in that world, though, still most of that money is still in front of us. The second tranche of RDOF was supposed to be for underserved. And so with the money that went back, that's about $12 billion additional dollars that have not yet been allocated. So there's a little bit of a question mark.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yep.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

As to what's gonna happen with that, as to whether or not it's gonna actually come out, how it interferes with BEAD or doesn't.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

So, we have to kinda wait and see on that one.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

I think RDOF had a six-year spending clock.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Mm-hmm.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

So it's a little stretched out.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Right. Exactly.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

So it seems like we're kind of in the middle of that cycle.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Right. And they do provide some kind of, like, a 20% milestone as to kinda where it'll be, and then if you don't.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Fulfill what you're supposed to. So it's interestingly better monitored than some of the previous programs.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

The ARPA world is kinda coming into its own. And so it's kind of starting to roll out a little bit. You have to be careful with ARPA because ARPA is about infrastructure spend, but it's not just broadband.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

And so because of it, it kinda can mislead the investor that there's all this big trough of money under ARPA, and it's divided in different places. So you have to be cognizant of that from an investor standpoint. And it's not like they're gonna get this big funding in 2024. It's a long, again, another long-term perspective, you know, on it.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

The,

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

I think that's sub-$10 billion, right? It's kinda the $6 billion-$8 billion rate.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Yeah. Yeah. So it's another you know, you know, collectively, these programs come up to about $100 billion.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Or, you know, over the you know, starting, you know, about now and then into the next, you know, six years with thought that it could extend from that because there's just, you know, only so much work that can happen on any given year.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

I think that's important also to use to measure in that, as a market, you know, we can grow about, you know, 8%-12%, and that's about as much labor as we can bring into the space.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

And so 'cause this is a construction project. So it's not like software. It can't, you know, springboard up and have this big hockey stick, but it can have, you know, sustainable growth. What we saw, you know, in the pandemic was a world in which everybody was racing to be the first fiber out. It's, and how we got out of control from an inventory standpoint. But I don't see that happening in the future. It's gonna be about execution, and it's gonna be about share gain 'cause growing more than 10% is about taking share from your neighbor.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yep.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Or your competitor in that world. That's what we wanna talk about BEAD a little bit.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah. Yeah. Let's talk about BEAD.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

So BEAD's $42 billion. It's the, you know, has all the big, you know, energy associated with it. And we're, you know, we're working toward it as an industry. BEAD is targeting 12 million homes that would not have been served with fiber had they not put together this initiative. The 12 million homes are identified by map, so you know exactly where they are in what states. And then that has determined, based upon how many homes are in each individual state, how much money the state is going to get under the BEAD initiative. That all went through Challenge, so that's been completed. Now, there are 3 stages in which the states have to go through in order to qualify for the funding. And unfortunately, that's where things have slowed down.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

You know, there's 50 of the 50 states have gone through stage one, but there's only, I think, five or six that have actually gotten through stage two.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

I looked last night. It's at 7.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Oh. Oh.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Oh.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Well, well, go get out.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Changing by the day.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

That's good news. Last so, it is a means by which to get, like, a make-ready.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Once they get to that stage, then they can start defining the rules and how they're gonna work with the individual service providers.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

So that's, you know, we had thought that we might see a little bit of revenue in late 2024 about it. And I had, you know, made the comment I thought it was because of the election year that we would see it because we wanted it to as a as an administration, the current administration would want it to, you know, see the credit. But I think in reality, it really is a 2025, before we're gonna see anything really associated with it.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

It'll be in the 2025 build season. So, you know, our U-shaped recovery is going to be about normal run-rate business today for the next, you know, few quarters, and then the BEAD will layer on top of it next year.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

These state approvals, I think, once these seven states now have seen approvals, they can go through their challenge process and, I think, begin the process to award.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Right.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

To the operators.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

So it's, and they have 12 months by which to do that.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

So that gives you the orientation to how long we're, you know, looking. And so then after they've awarded to the service provider, then the construction starts or potentially the engineering designs are finished.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

And so they're still gonna have to hire contractors, and, you know, the contractors are gonna be on other projects.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

And so,

I believe they have four years, then once they get the money to complete the job. So they've gotta be.

Health.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Held accountable for that.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Yeah. There's some level of clock, right?

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Yeah. It is 'cause it's an exciting program, but one because it has so much money and so much impact.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

but it's one that we have to be patient for.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Patience. Red tape. And what year do you think you might see a peak in the BEAD subsidies for your products? Are we talking.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Oh, I think we will see revenue in calendar year 2025.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

You know, associated with.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

When do you think we peak, though? 27?

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

We peak almost 26.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

28?

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

It's probably 27, 28.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

As a sustainable, you know, rate within it. So it's a.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

A long-term program to kinda come on top.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Yeah. 27, 28. And then, you know and remember, these are just the unserved homes. And so by definition, there's another 40 million homes underneath that. So the.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Very.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

And the anticipation this year is that we're going to see for the next five years, the research studies say about 50 million homes are going to be connected.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

12 million of that 50 are the BEAD initiative.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

So there's still a big core group underneath that that will continue. And what's exciting, I think, from a BEAD initiative is just how strategic each of those service providers can be with it in that, if they circle an adjacent market using the BEAD dollars, they can bring the fiber in necessary to join in a an adjacent environment by using the BEAD initiative. So it makes the traditional space more even more cost-effective.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Sure.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Than it had been without it.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

You can jump on somebody else's middle mile.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. So it's, there'll be a lot of puts and takes as they put this as it comes together.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah. I think a lot of those 40 million you mentioned that are still unserved post-BEAD are cable-only today.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Mm-hmm.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right? Most of them.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Absolutely. So, as we look at, you know, the possibility, I mean, the BEAD homes, the 12 million there, I mean, that they won't get a second source 'cause that's too difficult, too expensive.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

You know, if we look at the rest of the U.S. market, which is more than 100 million homes, and that now looking at 35% or maybe, you know I think it's gonna go higher than that with the second fiber, our total available market just continues to, you know, to expand.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm. And what kind of feedback are you getting from your community broadband leaders about BEAD? There's been some controversy about that and their willingness to participate and, you know, some of the requirements around BEAD and NTIA commentary about relaxing. What would you have to say about that?

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Well, anytime there's a government program, there's red tape. This government program, because it's taken all the way down to the state level, has a higher level of administration than others because, you know, they're actually creating agencies to monitor the funding.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Right? So they've gotta first create the infrastructure of the agency at each of the state level 'cause every state hasn't had a broadband department before.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

So they create that first, and they're funding that.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

And then from there, they actually do the allocation. So I think the small pros, there's gonna be money out there for everyone. You know, some of the big guys are gonna get, you know, a chunk.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Some of the cable guys are gonna get a chunk. But some of it is really designed for the community broadband space because of really the distances associated. So I don't think that there's a world in which anyone is, you know, gonna be left out.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

But I do think the community broadband world is going to be the ones who are gonna be serving the most costly areas and thereby creating, you know, the biggest opportunity for us.

Daniel Herzog
CFO, Clearfield

Most in need, for sure.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Let's shift to your innovation engine a bit. You know, maybe talk about some of your new products coming to market that you're excited about contributing this year or next.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Yeah. Oh, I mean, I think that's one of the most overlooked aspects of Clearfield is that, you know, we've got a big industry to serve, but we are in the space that we are because of the innovation that Clearfield's brought to market. You know, we started 15 years ago as a little company competing against the biggest fiber giants in the world, you know? And we said, "You know, Corning does it this way for the service providers, and we do it an entirely different way." And so that innovation has been core to our DNA. And so one of the most recent changes is an entire platform for connecting the home, and we call it SeeChange.

And so SeeChange is about being able to have a different kind of terminal, and a different type of connector that is more streamlined and that really takes the craftsperson, you know, into play. Our biggest difference has been that while our competitors have phenomenal lab-engineered solutions, our designs are designed in the field, not the lab, and are designed to be able especially from an outside plant standpoint for, you know, guys with big hands who have never seen a piece of fiber.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Right? And how are we gonna do this, and be able to do it not only quickly but effectively because we gotta take the guesswork out of it. And so SeeChange does that, and it's being brought to market at a time in which the competitive marketplace, the connectors that we have used for 20 years, which is predominantly designed by Corning, are being replaced in that Corning is bringing a whole new solution to get to market. And CommScope is a different one, and we have the third. And by the fact that CommScope has, excuse me, Corning has introduced this required change, it's put all of the service providers into a position of evaluating options. And so we are extremely pleased to see SeeChange in a number of pilots.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

so that we can validate, you know, to the consumer market the service provider marketplace, you know, the labor savings associated with it. You know, we've taken that further to, you know, a new line of pedestals, a new line of vaults so that we can offer a holistic platform in that there's no holes in the platform, and that you don't need to introduce a competitor in for a vault or a pedestal. But we also do it better, not just because, you know, we had that hole. And the biggest issue here, again, is how can we reduce the cost of deployment because, you know, you have to look at all the things surrounding it. So as an example, our vault is not one you know, you think about a vault as, you know, the size of a car, right?

Or not quite, but it feels like it when you're shipping it on a pallet. So it's about the size of a pallet, you know, size of a pallet and sits four feet high. But there's nothing inside of it. It's shipped in air, right? And so logistically, the cost to ship that thing is the biggest cost of deployment. So we said, "Well, let's take the pieces apart and make it easy to build in the field so we can ship three of them on a pallet rather than one." It reduces the cost, you know, dramatically.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Sure.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

You know, by doing so, and then I guess one other one I wanna brag about isn't a product, but from an innovation standpoint, it's really about looking at training. And, you know, we have, as an organization, well, because of the fact that we are, you know, we're talking about, you know, men, and it's predominantly men, but we're working on getting more women in the market. People with big hands who've never seen fiber before. Well, there are also, you know, young men and women who are entering the marketplace who traditionally don't learn on a manual, right? They learn on a computer. They learn on their.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

YouTube.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

On an app. On YouTube. So and so they are learn in small chunks.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

And so we brought you know, we've always done Clearfield College, the traditional online way or the field, support or in a classroom like this, but the new way to train is YouTube-like. And so.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

We introduced an app under what's called the BILT, B-I-L-T, platform. And that app actually provides animation on how to build in the field the particular product. So, you know, you can take someone who is new to the market and make them effective very quickly or provide that extra level of field support when there's a question. And so you can look on it for yourself. Just go to the App Store, download BILT, B-I-L-T, and search for Clearfield, and all the animations are right there for anyone who might need them.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

That's really cool. And, Dan, from a margin perspective, how do these new products look relative to what they're replacing or the ongoing?

Daniel Herzog
CFO, Clearfield

So, so,

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

A margin perspective.

Daniel Herzog
CFO, Clearfield

They're actually gonna be. They should be better for us. And we, you know, once we get to these new products here, we have to, like, blow through some of the little bit higher costs 'cause it's in our DNA to produce lower-cost products and, you know, to deliver that value to our customers. So they will be at least the same as what we have right now, if not better. But we do have to, like, blow through some of our existing inventory of things that we're looking to replace.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Got it. Helpful. And, one last question before we open up to the audience, for any Q and A. Any shifts in the competitive landscape you point out? I mean, there's one to talk about in terms of CommScope, kinda hanging by a thread there. I mean.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Mm-hmm.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

How do you see them behaving in the marketplace? That's, I guess, who you run into the most, I would guess, at the Tier 2 and Tier 3 level.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Right. They've been, you know, they're historically have been kind of second source for Tier 1s and then really playing in the Tier 2 and cable TV markets.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

You know, CommScope definitely has to get their house in order. And, you know, we are letting them do that on their own. That's their world.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Our world is to service our customer. And, as CommScope has saved money you know, they brag about saving $150 million last year and taking another $100 million out this year.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

You know, that comes at the cost of servicing their customer. We have during this period of time held tight on our SG&A but have not reduced it, because it's a transition year. It's a year by which to put our salespeople, our what we call our smart guys who are non-salespeople but who help in the deployment process because they've done it before. We've invested there. So we think that we're in a better place because of it, and are really diligently, from a competitive standpoint, looking at the market and saying, you know, the pandemic illustrated for everyone that sole sourcing is irresponsible.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

If any place there is an incumbency of someone other than Clearfield, and that's a lot of, you know, it's a lot of non-community broadband environments, you know, we are looking to be, you know, to keep our second source position, take second source in other places, and grow to primary.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

You know, of course, there are some, you know, alternative providers, some that are coming in as well.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Traditionally more of a copper-focused, have acquired some fiber assets. You know, they're all some pretty big companies. We should be you know, we're, very respectful of the engines that they support. But our best way to deal with the competition is to simply service the customer base.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Yeah. Great. I mean, with CommScope being many, many times your size, it sounds like a pretty promising opportunity to gain share.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

I believe so, yes.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

All right. All right. Okay.

Daniel Herzog
CFO, Clearfield

Yep. And they last year, they tried to, like, you know, raise some cash by putting some fire sale prices out there and everything. I don't think we've seen too much of it lately, but nobody was biting on that because if they had it already, it wasn't worth them to take on even more.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Right.

Daniel Herzog
CFO, Clearfield

When they're in that situation. So I don't think that really worked.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Got it. Well, with that, we can open to the audience. If there's any questions anybody wants to a sk? Yes, sir.

Speaker 4

I'll question. Can you provide some guidance and guideposts when market recovery is taking place?

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Mm-hmm.

Speaker 4

How we should think about that in different areas, maybe copper at different streets.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Mm-hmm.

Speaker 4

Among different segments, there could be some similarities and differences.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

I'll repeat the question so the audience can hear on the stream. The question was, do you have an idea on the timing of the recovery for the different market segments relative to your product sales and the general demand environment across different segments?

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Mm-hmm.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

That's what I heard.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Well, we passed a lot of homes during the pandemic. And so part of what we're seeing is from a product standpoint of a recovery is a strong amount of sales in connected homes. So taking advantage of the passings that were put into play over the last couple of years and increasing the amount of revenue associated with the product lines that connect the homes themselves. That gives us the opportunity as the recovery comes into play to have both the revenue from the passed home, which averages about $75 per home passed, as well as for the connected home, which averages about $250 dollars for every home connected. Now, remember, there is a take rate difference.

So, like, about 40% of the homes that are passed are actually connected, so it's not a one-to-one equation. From a market perspective, there is more inventory in play in the regional large regionals and the cable providers than there is at the community broadband space. So the recovery in community broadband will lead because of the lack of inventory there. However, the community broadband space is also the ones who are probably most impacted by the change in funding structures about whether the BEAD or ARPA or RDOF or anything else. And they also have to consider some things called ACAM versus traditional funding sources in their baseline. The best thing, I think, for you is to not think about it as type of market because they're all competing against each other, and they're all in a position of looking to invest.

I would say it's more a standpoint of, you know, whoever is looking for labor savings is who we're going to and can make the changes is where we're gonna see growth first. So, I again would take you back to community broadband where we're gonna see, I think, a faster rate of growth moving forward, than the others.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

In Q2 in 2024, you're thinking?

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

In 2025,

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

In 2024.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

of moving forward. Right now, remember, what we're seeing in, in 2024 is this beginning of a recovery and the beginning of the build season. So everybody's kind of level setting right now. Yeah. So then as we move forward, I think it's a, a means by which everybody will have that opportunity. And the best means for you to see that recovery will be to be looking at the labor suppliers. So look to MasTec. Look to Dycom. You know, public companies who are reporting the amount of labor that they are using in the broadband market. And that will be a leading indicator that we are truly coming out of this haze, you know, and being able to move forward.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Let me ask a quick follow-up there. You talked about your mix shift toward connected home in your recent quarter or two. Was this mix more pronounced than what you saw, let's say, before the pandemic, and we saw this inventory accumulation, which probably twisted things. But if you rewind to your traditional years, say the previous three years pre-pandemic.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

Right.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Was the mix shift toward home connected similar or more?

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

It's much more this time.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

More. Okay.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

and that is partially because of the innovation at Clearfield that we have brought a number of new products to market that are much more associated with the connected home than.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Got it.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

We were previously.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

So you've taken share, essentially.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

So yes. I believe that is exactly what we're doing. And the other area in which we're taking share is in the world of active cabinets.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Mm-hmm.

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

As electronics move out of the central office and into the outside plant, you know, they need not just the passive connectivity that we have provided historically, but they need a cabinet in which is going to house that electronics and power that electronics. And Clearfield's active cabinet solution, which we initially bought from Calix five years ago, has been completely redesigned to be a universal platform supporting, you know, everyone's electronics, whether it's Calix or Adtran or Harmonic or Extreme Networks. That was just a year and provide not only the power for that universal solution but be to be the only active cabinet that was designed to deploy fiber. So we have a dedicated shelf for fiber deployment that's that creates a lot of high density.

If you're really looking to design a network for fiber, you know, our cabinet is, you know, first in line.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

That's great. Any other questions for the audience? Pretty much time for one more. Yes, sir.

Speaker 5

It seems like, there's a lot of in your business is getting impacted by the demand and the rollout of fiber. So what is the long-term sustainable competitive advantage of your business over, like, say, let's say, 10-year period? What would that be?

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

The question was, what is the long-term sustainable added advantage for Clearfield in your core fiber business versus your peers?

Cheri Beranek
President and CEO, Clearfield

So Clearfield's products have been designed for fiber anywhere. So our solutions fit whether it's fiber to the home, whether it's a cable service for, you know, providing a higher density or backhauling the wireless solutions. We also support all of the solutions associated with cell backhaul, whether it's a macro or a micro tower with the various technologies that we have in play. And with the active cabinets, we will be positioning the company to take it to do edge computing, to be able to do the support for highway infrastructure, fiber deployment, you know, transportation, railroads, all the kinds of things that are gonna be built on top of the fiber platform that is being built today for fiber to the home.

So fiber to the home is just the beginning because it's gonna create the infrastructure, the highway by which to build all the other fiber communications that will be built that will be needed for the next kinda generation of computing.

Ryan Koontz
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Needham & Company

Great. Well, appreciate everybody joining today. Thank you very much.

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