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Earnings Call: Q4 2019

Feb 12, 2020

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the CME Group Q4 and Full Year 2019 Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. John Peschier. Please go ahead, sir.

John Peschier
Managing Director of Investor Relations, CME Group

Good morning, and thank you all for joining us today. I'm going to start with the safe harbor language, then I'll turn it over to Terry and John for brief remarks, followed by your questions. Other members of our management team will also participate in the Q&A session. Statements made on this call and in the other reference documents on our website that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance.

They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or implied in any statement. More detailed information about factors that may affect our performance can be found in the filings with the SEC, which are on our website. Lastly, on the final page of the earnings release, you will see a reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Terry.

Terry Duffy
Chairman and CEO, CME Group

Thank you, John. Thank you all for joining us this morning. Our comments will be brief so we can get right to your questions. We released our executive summary this morning, which provided extensive details on 2019 and the Q4. Q4 ADV ended slowly with 16.9 million contracts, down from an extremely active Q4 of 2018 period.

We are very pleased with the work we did to integrate the NEX business during 2019, including back-office migrations to support finance and HR systems and the building of an integrated global sales team. Importantly, our Globex technology migration is on track for BrokerTec and for EBS. During 2019, we had 40 trading days of over 25 million contracts. That is up from 35 days the prior year. We had annual volume records in interest rates, metals, and total options.

We continue to position CME Group for the long term by launching innovative new products, tools, and services to support customer needs and to create capital and operational efficiencies for market participants. We drove significant growth from customers based outside the United States during 2019. During the year, non-U.S. trading volume grew 10% to almost five million contracts per day. During Q4, non-U.S. ADV expanded from 24% of the total volume to 27%, and the proportion increased year-over-year across all six product lines.

Far in Q1, our business from outside the United States is up double digits in all six asset classes. We continued to deliver successful new product rollouts during 2019. Our popular Micro E-mini ADV traded approximately 106 million contracts since its launch in May, with diverse participation from across segment and regional perspective. We gained traction in innovative products, including silver futures and CME FX Link, which just set a daily trading record in January of this year. Also, we are pleased to have launched E-mini S&P ESG futures, as well as our new Bitcoin options product.

So far in Q1, our markets have been fairly active, with total volume up more than 10%. It's worth noting that activity in our higher rate per contract commodity contracts is particularly strong, with metals up more than 50%, energy up 20%, and agricultural products up more than 10%. Total open interest has increased from 113 million at year-end to more than 128 million contracts. I look forward to answering any questions you have, before I do that, I'll turn the call over to John to provide some additional comments. John?

John Pietrowicz
CFO, CME Group

Thanks, Terry. We made a lot of progress during 2019 as we integrated NEX, attracted new customers, and created innovative solutions. We delivered $4.9 billion in revenue and managed our expenses very carefully, which ultimately drove $6.80 in adjusted EPS. These strong results led to an annual variable dividend of $2.50 per share, and we recently announced a regular dividend of $0.85 per share, a 13% increase from last year.

In the Q4, we faced tough comparables to a very strong Q4 of 2018. Despite the headwinds, we continued to manage the business very well. Expenses were virtually flat with the previous quarter, and we delivered $1.52 in adjusted EPS. One thing to note for the quarter, as you know, our business experiences mix shifts in product, venue, and membership class.

In December, we experienced an unfavorable mix shift with a higher proportion of member trading and a lower proportion of privately negotiated trades in our rates business, which reduced its rolling three-month RPC for the month of December. Nonetheless, the rates RPC was up sequentially for the quarter and up year-over-year. Moving to 2020, we will continue to execute on our strategy, integrate the businesses, and migrate customers from the Legacy BrokerTec system to Globex.

In terms of our guidance for this year, I want to provide some background. We started 2019 with initial adjusted expense guidance of $1.65 billion- $1.66 billion. For the full year, we were $13 million below the low end of that range at $1.637 billion. For 2020, we currently expect full-year adjusted operating expenses, excluding license fees, to be between $1.64 billion and $1.65 billion.

For CapEx, excluding one-time integration costs and net of leasehold improvement allowances, we expect to be in the range of $180 million-$200 million. By the end of 2019, we targeted $50 million in run rate expense synergies. At year-end, we exceeded that target and achieved $58 million in run rate expense synergies, plus another $6 million of subleasing revenue, for a total of $64 million.

This is net of the additional cost that we are carrying to run infrastructures in parallel as we prepare for the migration to Globex for BrokerTec and EBS. At this time, we expect to be at $110 million of annual run rate expense synergies by the end of 2020. In terms of our tax rate, last year we got into an effective tax rate of between 24.5%-25.5%. I mentioned in Q3 that the new U.S. tax legislation would have a positive impact going forward.

As a result, we expect our 2020 adjusted effective tax rate to be between 23% and 24%. Please refer to the last page of our executive commentary for additional financial highlights and details. With that short summary, we'd like to open up the call for your questions. Based on the number of analysts covering us, please limit yourself to one question and then feel free to jump back into the queue. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by the digit one. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Once again, star one. Our first question today, we'll hear from Rich Repetto with Piper Sandler.

Rich Repetto
Analyst, Piper Sandler

Good morning, guys. First, I just want to shout out to Bryan Durkin. I know with nearly 40 years in the exchange space, sorry to see him go. He's truly an exchange guy. With that, I guess my question is, John, is around the costs and the synergies.

Could you tell us where you ended up and what you actually realized in 2019? Just trying to get a feel for what the underlying growth rate is, ex the synergies that you got. It looks like it's going to be just slightly up on a net basis. How does the synergies impact? What do you realize so far? What will you realize next year?

John Pietrowicz
CFO, CME Group

Great. Thanks, Rich. Appreciate the question. In terms of our realized expense synergies, we realized about $35 million in 2019 in terms of synergies. Like I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we exceeded our run rate synergy target. We had originally targeted $50 million. We hit $58 million in expenses plus an additional $6 million in sublease revenue. About $64 million all in.

Really pleased with the performance in terms of the integration and synergy realization. This is a total company effort, and I think we did an excellent job. In terms of next year, the way to think about it is, if you take our expenses for this year, excluding license fees of about $1,637 you add back in the realized synergies, and then you grow that expense base between 2.5% and 3%. That's about the upward pressure that we get on our expenses.

You back out the run rate synergies that we had, which is about $58 million, and then you back out what we think we're going to realize in 2020, and that's about $15 million in realized synergies in 2020. It's less than we achieved from a realized perspective, less than we achieved in 2019. That's because as you know, we're going to be migrating customers onto Globex in the Q4.

That's really kind of the target for us. That gets you basically flat with this year, about $1,640-$1,650. That's kind of the way to think about it. We are going to accelerate the synergies in 2020 as much as we can. We're very comfortable with our target of $110. To the extent we can accelerate the synergies, we will. The company's really focused on making sure that we have a good and seamless transition from the legacy BrokerTec platform to Globex.

Terry Duffy
Chairman and CEO, CME Group

Rich, let me just thank you for making the nice comments about all of our dear friends, Mr. Durkin, who is here.

Rich Repetto
Analyst, Piper Sandler

Sorry to see him go. Thank you. That helps, John. Thank you.

John Pietrowicz
CFO, CME Group

Thanks, Rich.

Operator

We'll move on to Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

Dan Fannon
Analyst, Jefferies

Thanks. Good morning. Can you talk about the NEX integration a little bit more, and specifically the migration over to Globex in 4Q? I think in the prepared statement, you talked about some of the client forums you've been holding, maybe what you're hearing from clients. As we think about that migration, what, if any, kind of uptick in volume might we anticipate?

Terry Duffy
Chairman and CEO, CME Group

Bryan.

Bryan Durkin
President, CME Group

Sure. Thank you. With respect to the integration, I think I've alluded to at the last call that we completed our API releases, which makes it possible for our customers to begin mock trading in the test environment. We are pleased with the outreach to the clients to date in terms of their sign-up for connectivity and for testing. We've had multiple forums, both domestically and internationally, with our client base to get them situated and ready for testing.

I think the rubber will really meet the road in the course of the next quarter in terms of the acceleration and making sure that we've got the clients in and actively testing in t hroughout Q2. We're excited about the capabilities and the functionality attributes moving over to Globex. The feedback that we continue to hear from the client base is very positive in terms of the switchover.

That in conjunction with the talks that we're having with clients in prep for EBS as well, the clients feel like we're doing a very methodical job in terms of our outreach, in terms of the preparation, in terms of the planning and testing. I think I've mentioned in the past, we have a fairly elaborate testing program in the context of ensuring that our clients have the ample time to acquaint themselves with the functionality and the platform switchover. Many of our clients, by the way, are very familiar with Globex.

Dan Fannon
Analyst, Jefferies

Great. Thank you.

Bryan Durkin
President, CME Group

Thanks, Dan.

Dan Fannon
Analyst, Jefferies

Thanks.

Operator

Next, move on to Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

Brian Bedell
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Great. Thank you. Morning, folks.

John Pietrowicz
CFO, CME Group

Morning, Brian.

Brian Bedell
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Good morning. Just talk about maybe the potential for RPC to move up a little bit in 2020 here. Maybe if, John, you can talk about the impact of the adverse member mix shift in rates on Q4, then any planned pricing changes across the futures product suite in 2020, also for market data.

I know last time, I think you had a price increase on the monthly fees in 2018. Sometimes you do that every other year, just seeing if there's anything planned for 2020. I'll also just squeeze in just the non-U.S. has been growing nicely. Any commentary on the potential impact for the shift outside the U.S. in that mix shift?

John Pietrowicz
CFO, CME Group

Okay, Brian, that was quite a number of questions. I'll do my best to hit them all. First off, let's talk about our RPC. In the month of November, I'm sorry, we talked a little bit about it in my prepared remarks. Basically what happened in the month of December, the rolling three-month average for rates for the RPC was actually down compared to the rolling three-month average in November.

Really, to understand why it went down, you really need to look at the activity that was occurring in December, which rolls into the calculation, and September, which rolls out of the calculation. When you isolate those two months of activity, in September, we had a higher amount of member trading activity, plus a higher proportion of privately negotiated trades.

Those are higher RPC trading, that caused the RPC to actually decline rolling three months November compared to rolling three months December. It's really a change in mix between September and December. That was what happened on the rate side. In terms of 2020 and things that are impacting or could impact our rates, a couple of things to point out.

Number one, if you take a look at our trading activity so far this year, very pleased with our volume being up 11% year-to-date. What's interesting, when you look at the mix of trading, we see energy up 20%. We see ag up 11%. We see metals up 51%, all of them in the commodities area, which have a higher RPC than the financials. We also see very good, strong equity trading as well.

When you take a look at how we're performing overseas, EMEA's up 25% with all product areas up double digits so far this year, APAC's up about 34%. Very strong activity coming from international. As you know, international tends to have a higher RPC than U.S. When you look at the mix of strong commodities performance and strong international performance, that should help in terms of the RPC.

You had a question around pricing. In general, we are always looking at our pricing schedules, we take a look at everything that hits, impacts our RPC. We'll look at the face rate, we'll look at the market maker programs, and we look at incentive plans. We do a very detailed product-by-product analysis, we take into consideration the market environment, the total cost of trade, and other factors. When we look at making any pricing adjustment, we do it with an eye towards not impacting volume.

That's very critical. In 2019, we didn't take any significant pricing actions. In 2020, we did make some adjustments that impact the RPCs, and assuming similar trading activity as 2019, the impact would be in the range of past adjustments in the range of about 1.5%-2% of our futures and options transaction fees.

The majority of the changes begin at the start of February. That was in response to your question on the pricing. On market data, we've made some pricing adjustments in non-display data recently that went into effect. I think that was kind of the major point on our market data. I think that addressed all your questions.

Brian Bedell
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yep. That's great. Maybe what's the impact of the market data price increases, from a revenue perspective?

John Pietrowicz
CFO, CME Group

We didn't provide that on the market data.

Brian Bedell
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay. All right. Fair enough. Thank you so much.

John Pietrowicz
CFO, CME Group

Thanks, Brian.

Operator

Next we'll move to Mike Carrier with Bank of America.

Mike Carrier
Analyst, Bank of America

Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Just in terms of the growth outlook, you guys highlighted the strength in ADV. We've seen that coming from outside the U.S. Even the new product, I think you guys mentioned that over the past decade, contributing about 10% of ADV today. I guess just on the international front, it looks like some of the products are contributing 25% today and some are in the 40s.

Maybe where do you see that opportunity ahead given either penetration potential or some of the initiatives that you have in place? Similar on the new product launches, can you provide either some color or some context around maybe the pace of new launches or even the uptake that you're seeing over the past few years versus the past decade that drove that 10% contribution to ADV today?

Terry Duffy
Chairman and CEO, CME Group

Mike, sorry about that. We're going to kind of go around the table a little bit here because I think there's a lot to that question. A lot of us could touch on it, I'm going to ask Sean to touch a little bit as it relates to some of the launches that I referenced earlier. One being, obviously, silver's not a brand-new launch, but it's out there and it's growing.

I think that is something that we can have a conversation about. Obviously we listed the ESG futures, which are new, it's kind of hard to get a trajectory of how they're going to perform at such an early stage. Sean, I'll turn it to you on some of the new products, then we can talk about the international growth.

Sean Tully
Senior Managing Director, Global Head of Financial and OTC Products, CME Group

We're constantly focused on both adjusting our existing products in order to make them more attractive to participants, especially relative to alternative products and listing new innovative products that address new needs in the marketplace. So far, we're very excited about where we are there. We're currently running over 40,000 contracts a day.

We have the equivalent of more than $1.2 trillion worth of open interest. Obviously, silver, a large and important initiative in addition to the futures side that I just talked about. We've now cleared more than $54 billion worth of SOFR interest rate swaps across 30 counterparties. On the futures side, we now have well over 350 different firms trading our SOFR futures. We're very excited about those developments.

If you look at each and every asset class, in the financials, what you noted was, in our report, we said that we had more than $2.1 million DDV last year from new products launched since 2010. We had $310 million in revenues. This is across every asset class. We are continuously innovating.

If you look at equities, for example, over the last few years we launched the BTIC, Basis Trade Index Close, which got a very high RPC and enjoying very good growth, and significantly adds to our revenues. In addition to that, we have the Total Return in futures. We have the dividend futures. Obviously, you know very well about the Micro E-minis. Maybe just a brief update on the Micro E-minis. We're doing 647,000 contracts a day so far this year. That's up 37% from last year.

In addition to that, we did tell you last year when we started, in terms of the RPC, when we initially launch a product, we typically have heavy incentives to make sure that there is very high liquidity on day one so that everyone always has a good experience on day one. We also promised you that we would be reducing those incentives over time.

If you look at the Q3 RPC, for example, on those Micro E-minis, it was $0.078. If you look at in Q4, that was $0.114. A very significant increase in that RPC while the product is growing very significantly. If you look at the RPC on that Micro E-mini, there is more than 80,000 different what we call Tag 50s that are trading that. A huge number of clients.

We believe we penetrated tens of thousands of new clients, in particular, larger retail traders. The other thing I want to get to is just the enormous growth in the product, growth in the RPC. The last thing I want to say is a very high premium relative to the E-minis. If you do that, the math, as you'll recall, the Micros are one tenth the size of an E-mini.

That means risk equivalent, that's $1.10 a contract relative to, you can see we reported in our equity indexes $0.65 a contract is our average RPC. If you look, we mentioned in the prepared remarks, FX Link, a new record day in January. In addition to that, the other big thing I would mention in foreign exchange in terms of innovations or adjusting the existing products, late last year, we adjusted the minimum price increments.

It sounds technical, but it's actually very important. We adjusted the minimum price increments in the quarterly roll from dollar-euro, dollar-yen, and dollar-sterling. Those December rolls were outstanding, I think it's fair to say, for each of those three products. In each and every case, the roll volume was up tremendously. The percentage of the open interest that was rolled was up tremendously, and we saw a huge increase in interest from banks and from hedge funds.

We did announce earlier this year that we are now going to likewise be reducing the minimum price increments in dollar-Canada and Aussie dollar. In addition to that, what impact did that have on our foreign exchange market? Foreign exchange market volatility is incredibly low. If you look at the January volatility, it's the lowest volatility going back to 1992 for the G7 currencies. Incredibly low volatility. Last year, the number of large open interest holders in our foreign exchange business grew by 30%.

On January 28th, we had a new all-time record high in large open interest holders in foreign exchange. We believe these adjustments to our products, even in this very low volatility environment, is having a very positive impact. Every asset class is seeing innovation, new product launches. I could keep mentioning them. One last one I'll mention is we just launched in January, also options on our SOFR futures. I could go on and on, but hopefully that gives you enough color.

Terry Duffy
Chairman and CEO, CME Group

Yeah, Mike, let me just talk real quick about Asia and Europe. I'll ask Bryan to comment a little bit about the growth throughout Europe, because I think that was the second part of your question. I'll touch just on a quick story about Asia. Last night, Julie Winkler, who is my Chief Commercial Officer, held an offsite, which she was scheduled to be with her entire team in Asia.

Obviously, that was not going to be the case. They held it here from Chicago. We have over 200 salespeople today, and we have a significant amount of those in Asia. I actually participated in her presentation because I happened to be walking by, I did participate for about the first hour. It's quite fascinating to see the enthusiasm amongst the Asian sales folks because we are now able to leverage a BrokerTec next to a treasury platform.

These are things that sales folks never had before that can hopefully increase the business throughout the region of Asia. We're having great growth through there, so we referenced it in our earlier numbers, and we're excited about the prospects of what the sales force can do by creating capital and operational efficiencies with the NEX transaction as they continue to sell those products throughout the region. I'll let Bryan talk about Europe.

Bryan Durkin
President, CME Group

It's been a journey. You've walked along with us over the last few years. You've heard what we've done to build up to the ability to say that we have about $5 million of our volume now coming out of international. You're well aware of the liquidity programs that we've put in place over the years to build up that activity during the regional time zones.

I think that that story is just continuing to unfold in a very positive way based on the diversity of the products, the asset classes that we represent, our global sales force that is very dedicated and attuned to the very specific client segments that do business at our institution. Over the past five years, we've seen over 75% growth in our average daily volume internationally.

What that breaks down to is about four million contracts coming out of the EMEA region and around another million contracts coming out of Asia. This is the first year that we were able to, on an Average Daily Volume for the year, really meet, and in some instances, exceed that million contract level. You had mentioned that you'd seen double-digit growth occurring in various asset classes. Again, it's the beauty of the diversity of our products. Earlier quarters, you were seeing tremendous growth in the international side in Europe on the interest rate products.

This last quarter, we saw a little bit of a slide in terms of interest rates in the European side of the equation. That was offset by strong growth in terms of our commodities, particularly our gold futures, our platinum futures, our foreign currencies did well. With respect to Asia Pacific, we saw a bit of a downturn in our energy products, that was highly offset by performance in our interest rate quadrant in our equities. Again, it's the diversity of the products that we have. It's our ability to penetrate these client segments.

You've heard me talk about country planning, which is a rather new phenomena that we've introduced across our sales force and our international teams over the course of the last two years. We're covering over 70%, I think, of the top 10 countries that are providing the revenues on the international time zone, where we have very specific deliverables for our sales force and our business lines and our international teams, we track those accordingly.

Sean Tully
Senior Managing Director, Global Head of Financial and OTC Products, CME Group

Just one last point. If we maintain this level of volume from international, this will be the largest month in our history since 2012, since we started tracking it. This will be our largest ADV month, in the month of February.

Terry Duffy
Chairman and CEO, CME Group

Hopefully, that gave you a little color, Mike.

Mike Carrier
Analyst, Bank of America

Yeah, thanks a lot.

Terry Duffy
Chairman and CEO, CME Group

Thank you.

Sean Tully
Senior Managing Director, Global Head of Financial and OTC Products, CME Group

Thanks.

Operator

Next we'll move to Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 11

Hi, this is Sherry filling in for Alex. Can you talk about the transition to SOFR and what sort of preparations have you made, and how should we think about the implications on volumes and the pricing for this product?

Terry Duffy
Chairman and CEO, CME Group

Go ahead, Sean.

Sean Tully
Senior Managing Director, Global Head of Financial and OTC Products, CME Group

Sure. We've been a member of the Alternative Reference Rates Committee now for several years. We were the leader in terms of introducing SOFR futures. I already mentioned earlier that we have about $1.2 trillion worth of open interest. We're doing over 40,000 contracts a day. If you look recently, in terms of our SOFR futures, we are running 78% of the global volume in SOFR futures in terms of average daily volume, and we're running 94% of the open interest. I'd say very solid growth in terms of those products.

We see this as additive to the rest of our products in terms of the Fed Funds futures and the Eurodollar futures, as well as Treasury futures, obviously. This is an additive product that we expect to grow side by side with our existing products. In addition to that, I mentioned earlier on the interest rate swap side, we cleared $54 billion worth of interest rate swaps. We have 30 participants now who have cleared interest rate swaps with us and working very closely with the industry on developments. I did mention also earlier that we did launch SOFR options on our SOFR futures in January.

Other things going on this year. Later this year, we will be working with the industry, we will be changing the discounting on our interest rate swaps from Fed Funds over to SOFR. I would say that there's a continuous increase in the adoption of SOFR by our clients, and a very goodly now ecosystem in terms of trading the SOFR futures. As I said earlier, it's actually, I think, more than 370 participants have been trading the product. I think it's a very healthy product area, and it's growing very nicely.

Speaker 11

Thank you. Anything on the pricing side as to how that would impact long-term?

Sean Tully
Senior Managing Director, Global Head of Financial and OTC Products, CME Group

On the pricing side, I would assume in the beginning when we launch new products, we want to ensure that they are extremely liquid. In the beginning, we typically offer incentives in order to ensure that we have the liquidity. With SOFR, I've said this on previous calls, I think we're the natural home for the product. We offer the most efficient place to trade. We offer inter-commodity spreads between the Eurodollar futures and the SOFR futures, the Fed Funds futures, and SOFR futures.

In addition to that, from a margin and capital perspective, we offer offsets between the SOFR futures, Eurodollar futures, SOFR futures, Treasury futures, SOFR futures versus Fed Funds futures. An extremely efficient place to trade. In the beginning, we do have incentives. We do have incentives today. As I said, we have 94% of the global open interest in the product. Over time, I would expect us to reduce those incentives. I expect the pricing to look similar at some point to our Eurodollar futures. At the moment, honestly, there are some incentives.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

We'll move on to Alex Kramm with UBS.

Alex Kramm
Analyst, UBS

Hey, good morning, everyone. Wanted to take some of the pricing questions that you got and maybe take them over to the NEX side. Can you talk about how you view pricing in those legacy business a little bit more, one on the non-transaction side, but also on the transaction side, I think there's still a lot of legacy contracts that are fairly fixed.

Do you think there will be opportunities as maybe some of that comes up as you maybe move to Globex to maybe restructure some of that? Or are you pretty happy to kind of keep the volume there no matter what and maybe not participate in the upside, as maybe competition gets a little bit bigger in that space? Thank you.

John Pietrowicz
CFO, CME Group

Hi, Alex. This is John. I'll start and maybe Sean can chime in. You're correct. When you look at the legacy NEX businesses, BrokerTec in particular has a large number of bespoke agreements, and they tend to vary less with volume than our futures business. When you look at EBS, it's more akin to our futures business in terms of volume activity versus revenue realization. That's on the market side.

On the optimization businesses, the non-transaction optimization businesses, it's much more of a subscription-based or monthly-based fee for those services. Obviously, on the transaction side of the optimization businesses, that varies a bit with the amount of activity that's performed. For example, this quarter, we saw a sequential increase in the amount of revenue generated from the transaction business of the optimization companies that we own. It was actually up about $4 million sequentially.

That was primarily because there was more activity at triReduce. We haven't announced any long-term plans around pricing. We're very focused on the transition from the legacy NEX platforms onto Globex. As we always do, we're always looking at our pricing, and we want to make sure that we've got a very compelling offering and that we've got a very compelling platform for our customers to use.

Sean Tully
Senior Managing Director, Global Head of Financial and OTC Products, CME Group

Yeah, I think underlying what John said, this is Sean, our primary focus now is transitioning the businesses onto Globex. Both BrokerTec this year and EBS next year onto Globex. Secondly, making sure that we have the single most attractive platform for anyone to trade in terms of our products. Creating new efficiencies between the cash and the futures markets that haven't existed before because we have both as a product.

We are really focusing on the transition onto Globex, one. Two, on making sure we have the single most attractive products possible. Three, creating new efficiencies that the marketplace has never seen before. Four, cross-selling. The cross-selling is the thing that we're already heavily into. In terms of that cross-selling, maybe just a couple of points. In particular, we started tracking what we call cross-referrals and cross-introductions between the cash and futures businesses.

To date, we are now tracking more than 400 cross-introductions, where we are having the cash markets salespeople introduce clients to our futures folks, as well as our futures sales team introducing clients over into the cash markets businesses. The large portion of those are as we had expected and as we talked about when we launched the transaction, the highest portion is coming from foreign exchange customers in the cash markets, as well as the futures markets, looking at the cross-sell opportunity, particularly in Europe. The number two category is in interest rates. We're really very focused on the client experience.

Alex Kramm
Analyst, UBS

Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

We'll move on to Chris Harris with Wells Fargo.

Chris Harris
Analyst, Wells Fargo

Thanks, guys.

Sean Tully
Senior Managing Director, Global Head of Financial and OTC Products, CME Group

Hey, Chris.

Chris Harris
Analyst, Wells Fargo

With the news out there regarding ICE's interest in eBay, can you give us an update on your thoughts regarding M&A, and specifically hoping you could address whether you consider somewhat out-of-the-box transactions?

Terry Duffy
Chairman and CEO, CME Group

Well, we won't comment on what was talked about with Intercontinental. As far as our M&A strategy, Chris, as you've seen, we're very deliberate and diligent in how we approach it. We try to be obviously opportunistic if something arises that we think is right for the value of the shareholders. It can increase the value for the client. We have a long history, and I'm not going to go through all the history of what our transactions have been.

We're focused on the next integration. We have two years left on that integration process to get both BrokerTec and EBS on the platform. It's a big part of what we're trying to accomplish. That's our strategy for now. Obviously, we always look at things, but at the same time, we're laser-focused, as I've said before, on completing the integration of this transaction.

Chris Harris
Analyst, Wells Fargo

Okay, got it.

Operator

Next, we'll move to Kyle Voigt with KBW.

Kyle Voigt
Analyst, KBW

Hi, good morning. Maybe a couple questions on market data. It looks like the NEX market data revenues were down $5 million sequentially. Anything to call out there that drove the decline? Then I suppose that implies there was some good sequential growth in CME's core data revenues. Just what drove that without the pricing move? Then maybe if you just give an update on the derived data initiative and the kind of sales progress there.

John Pietrowicz
CFO, CME Group

All right. Hi, Kyle. This is John. When you take a look at our market data line, from a revenue perspective, it was actually up about $500,000 sequentially from Q3 to Q4. Really, when you peel it back, our market data performed very well in the Q4. In Q3, we had $1.1 million more in audit findings. As you know, those audit findings can vary quarter to quarter depending on as those audit findings get realized.

Really, if you strip out the audit findings, our market data is actually up a million and a half dollars, and that's really a function of two things. One, we had a pricing change that we discussed in our non-display data. Also we've seen a stabilization on the attrition, which has been helpful. The core market data, excluding audits, is up about a million and a half, and from a NEX perspective, the market data's relatively flat Q3 to Q4. Bryan, do you want to talk a little bit about?

Bryan Durkin
President, CME Group

Yeah, I mean, you covered the pricing, but on the derived side of it, we continue to be very pleased with the demand from the client base in terms of having access to our products for them to be able to build structured products based off of our data. That business continues to grow and evolve, and the interest and the demand is coming from a variety of different client sectors. What I'm most pleased about is our engagement with the consumers of this data, whether it be our core customers being the consumers of the data for trading.

You got to think about this outside the box of subscribers, the traditional subscribers. Those looking at it from the perspective of using data to complement both their trading, development of products that they can sell in-house, as well as demand for historical data that they use for a variety of reasons. We've really been trying to more deeply engage with the client base.

The audits, quite honestly, that we started almost, I think it was a couple years back in earnest, has really allowed us to capture a much deeper insight into how the variety of client segments utilize our data. That's brought us much closer to the client base itself and the consumers. The other thing that we look very closely at is the distributors of the data. Really drawing a much closer alliance in relationships with the vendors and how we go about pricing that information for them to be able to redistribute our data.

We're very excited about the foundation and the programs that we've put in place over the last couple of years to help us really grow each of these variety of data offerings. When you look at NEX, as you can appreciate, we had to get into this more deeply this past year in terms of looking at. The esoteric nature of how that data is utilized by EBS as well as BrokerTec. We have a number of plans on the horizon, working closely with Sean and his team in terms of how we can better structure and package that information for consumption.

Kyle Voigt
Analyst, KBW

Thanks. And John, I apologize. The $5 million sequential decline I was looking at was actually for the NEX other revenue. Could you just-

John Pietrowicz
CFO, CME Group

Oh.

Kyle Voigt
Analyst, KBW

Provide any clarity on that? I'm sorry.

John Pietrowicz
CFO, CME Group

No worries, Kyle. Yeah. Really the primary driver of the $5 million reduction in the other revenue is, as you recall, in the Q3, we announced that we had completed the sale of the Enso business. The majority of the $5 million decline was related to that sale.

Kyle Voigt
Analyst, KBW

Got it. Thank you.

John Pietrowicz
CFO, CME Group

All right. No problem.

Operator

We'll move on to Owen Lau with Oppenheimer.

Owen Lau
Analyst, Oppenheimer

Good morning, thank you for taking my question. I want to touch on the commodities and metals a little bit. The ADV and open interest of commodities and metals were up quite nicely year-over-year at the end of January. Could you please talk about some of the drivers of the strength there?

Are you taking shares from other exchanges internationally? Is that continued migration from cash to derivatives, or is it mainly driven by volatility events like coronavirus? How should we think about the contribution of each driver and the sustainability of the strength for the rest of this year? Thank you.

Terry Duffy
Chairman and CEO, CME Group

Thanks, Owen. I'll give that to Derek.

Derek Sammann
Senior Managing Director, Global Head of Commodities Markets, CME Group

Thanks, Owen. Yeah, it's been a good run. It's actually, there are three different businesses that some are operating in conjunction with others. Some are actually quite de-correlated when you look at the impact of coronavirus, African swine fever, and the phase I trade deal that we've seen unleash.

As Bryan had mentioned, we've seen particular strength in the commodities businesses, all three of these, most especially our metals business out of Europe and Asia. I think that's a business that over the last four or five years, not only have we positioned our COMEX gold and silver contracts as the global benchmark, you're seeing that as more business shifts out of the bilateral swaps market, primarily the London physical market, the bullion market, into our markets. We actually regressed our volumes back 20 years.

If you go back over 20 years ago, COMEX represented 10% of the total physical and cash combined businesses of futures and cash. Fast-forward to today, COMEX now represents 50% larger volumes than what we've seen in the LBMA business. We're seeing that bullion market adopt very much the capital and operational efficiencies of COMEX gold.

We've gone from one-tenth of that physical market to 50% bigger than that cash market. The significant growth and uptake is largely driven by U.S. and actually Asian and European customers. We see that on the competitive numbers. We see that in overall numbers. The business referred to so far this year, we're up 50%. We see that our Asian business in metals is up 56%. It's up 58% as well in APAC.

To the extent that that business continues to grow, that is both metal and particularly gold as a preferred commodity in uncertain markets in which we operate. I think us better positioning the futures market as the best solution and product for delivery of that market. Flipping over to our energy business, I think it was referenced earlier in the call, Terry talked about the strong growth we've seen so far this year in our energy business.

Globally, energy business is up 20%, and we're seeing that actually up significantly in Europe as well. What we're seeing there is after a year of basically a $10 trade range in oil and natural gas sitting at around $2.50, we've seen significant impacts to concerns of global growth and two ways in which the market expresses a view on concerns of global growth is effectively the price of oil.

We've seen that as that downdraft has actually taken place. We saw WTI go from $62 to $52 in the span of two weeks on growth concerns. We've seen our business so far this year absolutely take off. Not surprising to see that the preference for global crude trading taking the place in the form of WTI.

It's a global crude oil market story that we've been talking about for the last three years, and we see that play very much intact. I would say even more strongly in natural gas. Our business in natural gas is up 40% so far this year, and our market share has gone to an all-time record of 84% of natural gas futures, Henry Hub in the U.S.

Again, when you're seeing markets break out below levels driven by growth rate concerns globally, there's an article that just came out 20 minutes ago on global growth concerns putting downward pressure on energy prices. The market's coming to CME to use our energy prices to manage that risk. Lastly, on the ag side, this is a business that's close to a $0.5 billion business to the firm.

This is a market where we saw record dairy and livestock volumes last year. As you have saw concerns about African swine fever in Asia and the concerns about culling herds, we saw that risk being managed here at CME Group. Most particularly with the phase I trade deal now announced, we've seen a resumption of our volume. Went a little bit sideways in grains and oil seeds last year.

We're seeing our ag business up so far 11% this year. Most notably, when you see where that growth is taking place, we're seeing the business so far up 33% in Europe and up, gosh, 51% in Asia. Again, when the market experiences volatility, uncertainty, and breakout in ranges, you're seeing the market continue to adopt CME Group global benchmarks. We're seeing that not just during U.S. time zone, but to the points Bryan has made and Terry referenced earlier, an outsized proportion of new client acquisition in Europe and Asia.

Owen Lau
Analyst, Oppenheimer

That's helpful. Thank you.

Bryan Durkin
President, CME Group

Thank you.

Derek Sammann
Senior Managing Director, Global Head of Commodities Markets, CME Group

Thanks, Owen.

Operator

Next, we'll move to Ari Ghosh with Credit Suisse.

Ari Ghosh
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Good morning, everyone. Apologies if you've already hit on this, but just wanted to touch on a couple items that could be incremental to volumes looking forward. First, just hoping you could give us an update on conversations you're having with clients around navigating UMR and potential cost saves from your FX fee.

Then, just moving on to Bitcoin, you continue to see solid volumes and new account growth around Bitcoin as well. Just curious how the institutional ecosystem here is evolving around Bitcoin and your competitive positioning in this emerging asset class as well. Thank you very much.

Terry Duffy
Chairman and CEO, CME Group

Thank you. Sean?

Sean Tully
Senior Managing Director, Global Head of Financial and OTC Products, CME Group

In terms of the uncleared margin rules, that's something we've been very focused on now for a number of years, and that'll continue to be a tailwind for us over the next couple of years with the extension of the dates by regulators relative to compliance. We do expect that September of this year, another very large portion of clients will be forced into those uncleared margin rules.

Relative to that, we do see an opportunity to offer clients listed FX options in particular, but also use our FX futures as alternatives to forwards. We added, as you'll recall a couple of years ago now, monthly futures in addition to our quarterly futures, in order to help facilitate that as well as FX Link in order to make that transition from the OTC market over to the futures market, the listed market much easier.

As you're rightly pointing out, something that we point out, we've pointed out for years now, right, is that if you're affected by the uncleared margin rules, you have a 10-day margin period of risk if you move to an OTC product. We do now clear both non-deliverable forwards as well as cash-settled forwards. Those are G7 currencies. We are clearing FX forwards, cash-settled FX forwards in the OTC market as well.

The uncleared 10-day margin period of risk, cleared OTC is typically a five-day margin period of risk. We've actually now cleared about $69 billion worth of NDFs and CSFs in our OTC FX business. Relatively small, but increasing. The most efficient place is in futures and listed options, which is typically the one-day margin period of risk. We do see that to be a continuing tailwind.

In addition to that, our optimization services are very focused on having a holistic solution that no other marketplace can offer in terms of optimization of portfolios as well. In terms of UMR, we can see a continued benefit there. I think you had a second question. Oh, Bitcoin. Bitcoin continues to operate well. We're doing around 10,000 contracts a day. We did launch Options on Bitcoin, which are doing well. Honestly, it's a very small part of our market.

Ari Ghosh
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

As a reminder, it's star one if you would like to ask a question. Next, we'll take a follow-up question from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

Brian Bedell
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Great. Thanks very much. Just wanted to also just say my appreciation for Bryan Durkin's help over the years and your great answers on these earnings calls. Just many other questions were asked already, but just are there any plans to fill the president role, or are you eliminating that position?

Terry Duffy
Chairman and CEO, CME Group

You know, Brian, Terry Duffy, I'm going to look at that over a period of time. Bryan is committed to being here through May and then help advising me thereafter. He's also joining our board of directors, which will also be a benefit to not only the shareholders, but to the employee base as well, which he is a big part of now.

I haven't made a decision about how I'm going to move forward with that particular role right now. I'll work with Bryan and others as we continue to evolve and Bryan starts his transition into his next life. Let me instead just echo your comments at the beginning. He does give great answers, and not only that, he works wonderful with clients, and his knowledge will be around for a long time to come, so that is greatly appreciated.

Brian Bedell
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Thanks very much.

Terry Duffy
Chairman and CEO, CME Group

Thank you.

Operator

Just a reminder, it's star one if you would like to ask your question. Next, I'll move to Patrick O'Shaughnessy with Raymond James.

David Farnum
Analyst, Raymond James

Hey, guys. It's actually David Farnum on for Patrick. For the international business, I was wondering if we could dig into the drivers of your growth across the various regions. Can you speak to your sales headcount ramp over the last few years? Where are we right now across the various regions? Where was it, say, five years ago? As we look forward, would you anticipate further headcount growth to continue to capitalize on the international opportunity, or do you feel like you're at the correct point right now?

Terry Duffy
Chairman and CEO, CME Group

You know what, David? Terry Duffy. Right now, our headcount in sales has gone up close to 200 of the CME workforce today. It's spread throughout the world fairly evenly. Obviously, the big part of it's here in the U.S., in Europe and Asia as well, other parts. Listen, if in fact, the business is growing, I continue to see the benefits, which I have seen by increasing the sales force over the last several years, you got to remember about seven to 10 years ago, that number was probably about 10- 15 people in sales.

Now we're sitting at over 200. You can look at the chart up and to the right of the growth of the business. You can correlate that to new count acquisitions that Julie Winkler and her team have been doing along with the sales folks. As long as we can continue to offer a solution that's more cost benefit to the participant, we're gonna continue to add our sales folks to do so.

It's one of those things, you don't want to be a company full of salespeople, but if they are continuing to deliver value, I have no problem increasing the size of that staff as long as the business is reflective of what they are producing.

David Farnum
Analyst, Raymond James

Great. Very helpful. Thanks.

Terry Duffy
Chairman and CEO, CME Group

Thank you.

David Farnum
Analyst, Raymond James

Thanks.

Operator

That will conclude today's question- and- answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to the management for any additional or closing remarks.

Terry Duffy
Chairman and CEO, CME Group

Yeah, we appreciate it very much, and we look forward to speaking with all of you next quarter. Have a nice day. Thank you.

Operator

That will conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation.