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Earnings Call: Q4 2019

Feb 12, 2020

Speaker 1

day, and welcome to the CME Group 4th Quarter and Full Year 2019 Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. John Feisher. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 2

Good morning, and thank you all for joining us today. I'm going to start with the safe harbor language, and I'll turn it over to Terry and John for brief remarks followed by your questions. Other members of our management team will also participate in the Q and A session. Statements made on this call and in the other reference documents on our website that are not historical facts are forward looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance.

They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or implied in any statements. More detailed information about factors that may affect our performance can be found in the filings with the SEC, which are on our website. Lastly, on the final page of the earnings release, you will see a reconciliation between GAAP and non GAAP measures. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Terry.

Speaker 3

Thank you, and thank you, John. Thank you all for joining us this morning. Our comments will be brief, so we can get right to your questions. We released our executive summary this morning, which provided extensive details on 2019 and the 4th quarter. 4th quarter ADV ended slowly with 16,900,000 contracts down from an extremely active Q4 of 2018 period.

We are very pleased with the work we did to integrate the NEX business during 2019, including back office migrations to support finance and HR systems and the building of an integrated global sales team. Importantly, our Globex technology migration is on track for BrokerTec and for EBS. During 2019, we had 40 trading days over 25,000,000 contracts. That is up from 35 days of prior year. We had annual volume records in interest rates, metals and total options.

We continue to position CME Group for the long term by launching innovative new products, tools and services to support customer needs and to create capital and operational efficiencies for market participants. We drove significant growth from customers based outside the United States during 2019. During the year, non U. S. Trading volume grew 10% to almost 5,000,000 contracts per day.

During Q4, non U. S. ADV expanded from 24% of the total volume to 27% And the proportion increased year over year across all six product lines. So far in Q1, our business from outside the United States is up double digits in all 6 asset classes. We continue to deliver successful new product rollouts during 2019.

Our popular Micro e Mini ADV traded approximately 106,000,000 contracts since its launch in May, with diverse participation from a cross segment and regional perspective. We gained traction in innovative products, including Silver Futures and CME FX Link, which just set a daily trading record in January of this year. Also, we are pleased to have launched e mini S and PESG Futures as well as our new Bitcoin options product. So far in Q1, our markets have been fairly active with total volume up more than 10%. It's worth noting that activity in our higher rate for contract commodity contracts is particularly strong with metals up more than 50%, energy up 20% and agricultural products up more than 10%.

Total open interest has increased from 100 and $13,000,000 at year end to more than 128,000,000 contracts. I look forward to answering any questions you have. But before I do that, I'll turn the call over to John to provide some additional comments. John?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Terry. Made a lot of progress during 2019 as we integrated NEX, attracted new customers and created innovative solutions. We delivered $4,900,000,000 in revenue and managed our expenses very carefully, which ultimately drove $6.80 in adjusted EPS. These strong results led to an annual variable dividend of $2.50 per share and we recently announced a regular dividend of $0.85 per share, a 13% increase from last year. In the 4th quarter, we faced tough comparables to a very strong Q4 of 2018.

Despite the headwinds, we continue to manage the business very well. Expenses were virtually flat with the previous quarter and we delivered $1.52 in adjusted EPS. One thing to note for the quarter, as you know, our business experiences mix shifts in product, venue and membership class. In December, we experienced an unfavorable mix shift with a higher proportion of member trading and a lower proportion of privately negotiated trades in our rates business, which reduced its rolling 3 month RPC for the month of December. Nonetheless, the rates RPC was up sequentially for the quarter and up year over year.

Moving to 2020, we will continue to execute on our strategy, integrate the businesses and migrate customers from the legacy BrokerTec system to Globex. In terms of our guidance for this year, I want to provide some background. We started 2019 with initial adjusted expense guidance of $1,650,000,000 to $1,660,000,000 For the full year, we were $13,000,000 below the low end of that range at $1,637,000,000 For 2020, we currently expect full year adjusted operating expenses, excluding license fees, to be between $1,640,000,000 $1,650,000,000 For capital expenditures excluding one time integration costs and net of leasehold improvement allowances, we expect to be in the range of $180,000,000 to $200,000,000 By the end of 2019, we targeted $50,000,000 in run rate expense synergies and at the end at year end, we exceeded that target and achieved $58,000,000 in run rate expense synergies plus another $6,000,000 of subleasing revenue for a total of $64,000,000 This is net of the additional costs that we are carrying to run infrastructures in parallel as we prepare for the migration to Globex for BrokerTec and EBS. At this time, we expect to be at $110,000,000 of annual run rate expense synergies by the end of 2020.

In terms of our tax rate, last year we guided to an effective tax rate of between 24.5% 25.5%. I mentioned in Q3 that the new U. S. Tax legislation would have a positive impact going forward. As a result, we expect our 2020 adjusted effective tax rate to be between 23% 24%.

Please refer to the last page of our executive commentary for additional financial highlights and details. With that short summary, we'd like to open up the call for your questions. Based on the number of analysts covering us, please limit yourself to one question and then feel free to jump back into the queue. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. And our first question today, we'll hear from Rich Repetto with Piper Sandler.

Speaker 4

Yes. Good morning, guys. First, I just want to shout out to Brian Durkin. I know with nearly 40 years in the exchange space, sorry to see him go. He's truly an exchange guy.

So with that, I guess my question is, John, is around the costs and the synergies. And could you tell us we ended up and what you actually realized in 2019? And then just trying to get a feel for what the underlying growth rate is ex the synergies that you got? It looks like it's going to be just slightly up on a net basis, but what how does the synergies impact? What do you realize so far?

What will you realize next year?

Speaker 2

Yes, great. Thanks, Rich. I appreciate the question. So in terms of our realized expense synergies, we realized about $35,000,000 in 2019 in terms of synergies. Like I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we exceeded our run rate synergy target.

We had originally targeted $50,000,000 dollars We hit 58,000,000 in expenses plus an additional $6,000,000 in leasehold or sublease revenue, so about $64,000,000 all in. So really pleased with the performance in terms of the integration and synergy realization. This is a total company effort and I think you did an excellent job. So in terms of next year, the way to think about it is, if you take our expenses for this year, ex excluding license fees of about $16.37 you add back in the realized synergies and you grow that expense base between 2.5% and 3%. That's about the upward pressure that we get on our expenses.

Then you back out the run rate synergies that we had, which is about $58,000,000 And then you back out what we think we're going to realize in 20 20, and that's about $15,000,000 in realized synergies in 2020. Now it's less than what we achieved in from a realized perspective, less than we achieved in 2019. And that's because, as you know, we're going to be migrating customers on to Globex in the Q4. So that's really kind of the target for us. And that gets you basically flat with this year, about $16.40 to $16.50 So that's kind of the way to think about it.

We are going to accelerate the synergies in 2020 as much as we can. We're very comfortable with our target of 110, but to the extent we can accelerate the synergies, we will. But the company is really focused on making sure that we have a good and seamless transition from the legacy BrokerTec platform to Globex.

Speaker 3

And, Greg,

Speaker 4

let me

Speaker 3

just thank you for making the nice comments about all of our dear friends, Mr. Durkin, who is here.

Speaker 4

Sorry to see him go.

Speaker 5

Thank you. That helps, John. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Richard.

Speaker 1

And we'll move on to Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Good morning. I guess, can you talk about the NEX integration a little bit more and specifically the migration over to Globex in 4Q? I think in the prepared statement, you talked about some of the client forms you've been holding, maybe what you're hearing from clients. And then as we think about that migration, what if any kind of uptick in volume might we anticipate?

Speaker 2

Brian? Sure. Thank you. With respect to the integration, I think I've alluded to at the last call that we completed our API releases, which makes it possible for our customers to begin mock trading in the test environment. We are pleased with the outreach to the clients to date in terms of their sign up for connectivity and for testing.

We've had multiple forums, both domestically and internationally, with our client base to get them situated and ready for testing. I think the rubber will really meet the road in the course of the next quarter in terms of the acceleration and making sure that we've got the clients in and actively testing throughout Q2. We're excited about the capabilities and the functionality attributes moving over to Globex. The feedback that we continue to hear from the client base is very positive in terms of the switchover. So that in conjunction with the talks that we're having with clients in prep for EBS as well, the clients feel like we're doing a very methodical job in terms of our outreach, in terms of the preparation, in terms of the planning and testing.

I think I've mentioned in the past, we have a fairly elaborate testing program in the context of ensuring that our clients have the ample time to acquaint themselves with the functionality and the platform switch over. But many of our clients, by the way, are very familiar with Globex. Great. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Sam.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Sam.

Speaker 1

Next, move on to Brian Fiddell with Deutsche Bank.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks. Good morning folks. Good morning, Brian. Good morning.

Speaker 4

Can you just talk about

Speaker 6

maybe some potential the potential for RPC to move up a little bit in 2020 here? Maybe if John, you can talk about the impact of the adverse member mix shift in rates on Q4? And then any planned pricing changes across the futures product suite in 2020? And also for the market data, I know last time, I think you had a price increase on the monthly fees in 2018. Sometimes you do that every other year, so just seeing if there's anything planned for 2020.

And then I'll also just squeeze in just the non U. S. Has been growing nicely. Any commentary on the potential impact for the shift to Africa U. S.

In that mix shift?

Speaker 2

Okay, Brian. That was quite a number of questions. So I'll do my best to handle all. So first off, let's talk about our RPC. So in the month of November, we talked a little bit about it I'm sorry, we talked a little bit about it in my prepared remarks.

And so basically what happened in the month of December, the rolling 3 month average for rates for the RPC was actually down compared to the rolling 3 month average in November. So really to understand why it went down, you really need to look at the activity that was occurring in December, which rolls into the calculation in September, which rolls out of the calculation. So when you isolate those 2 months of activity, in September, we had a higher amount of member trading activity plus a higher proportion of privately negotiated trades. And that really caused those are higher RPC trading. So that caused the RPC to actually decline rolling 3 months November compared to rolling 3 months December.

And it's really a change in mix between September December. So that was what happened on the rate side.

Speaker 7

Our

Speaker 2

our rates. A couple of things to point out. Number 1, if you take a look at our trading activity so far this year, very pleased with our volume being up 11% year to date. And what's interesting when you look at the mix of trading, we see energy up 20%, we see ags up 11%, we see metals up 51%, all of them in the commodities area, which have a higher RPCP than the financials. We also see very good strong equity trading as well.

Also when you take a look at how we're performing overseas, EMEA is up 25% with all product areas up double digits so far this year and then APAC is up about 34%. So very strong activity coming from international. As you know, international tends to have a higher RPC than the U. S. So when you look at the mix of commodities, strong commodities performance and strong international performance, that should help in terms of the RPC.

Then you had a question around pricing. In general, we are always looking at our pricing schedules and we take a look at everything that hits impacts our RPC. So we'll look at the face rate, we'll look at the market maker programs and we look at incentive plans and we do a very detailed product by product analysis. We take into consideration the market environment, the total cost of trade and other factors. And then we do when we look at making any pricing adjustment, we do it with an eye towards not impacting volume.

That's very critical. In 2019, we didn't take any significant pricing actions. In 2020, we did make some adjustments that impact the RPCs and assuming similar trading activity as 2019, the impact would be in the range of past adjustments in the range of about 1.5% to 2% of our futures and options transaction fees and majority of the changes begin at the start of February. So that was in response to your question on the pricing. And then market data, we've made some pricing adjustments in non display data recently that went into effect.

And then I think that's kind of the major point on market data. So I think that addressed all your questions.

Speaker 6

Yes, that's great. Just maybe what's the impact of the market price increases from a revenue perspective?

Speaker 2

We didn't provide that on the market data.

Speaker 6

Okay. Fair enough. Thank you so much.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Brian. And next we'll

Speaker 1

move to Mike Carrier with Bank of America.

Speaker 8

Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Just in terms of the growth, Alex, you guys highlighted the strength in ADV and we've seen that coming from outside the U. S. And then even the new product, I think you guys mentioned that over the past decade, you're contributing about 10% of ADV today.

So I guess just on the international front, it looks like some of the products are contributing 25% today and somewhere in the 40s. Maybe where do you see that opportunity ahead given either penetration potential or some of the initiatives that you have in place? And similar on like the new product launches, can you provide either some color or some context around maybe the pace of new launches or even the uptake that you're seeing over the past few years versus the past decade that drove that 10% contribution to ADV today?

Speaker 3

Yes, Mike, it's Terry Duffy. We're going to kind of go around the table a little bit here, because I think there's a lot to that question, a lot of us could touch on it. But I'm going to ask Sean to touch a little bit as it relates to some of the launches that I referenced earlier. One being, obviously, SOPRA is not a brand new launch, but it's out there and it's growing. So I think that is something that we can have a conversation about.

And then obviously, we listed the ESG futures, which are new. So it's kind of hard to get a trajectory of how they're going to perform at such an early stage. But Sean, I'll turn it to you on some of the new products and we can talk about the international growth.

Speaker 7

We're constantly focused on both adjusting our existing products in order to make them more attractive to participants, especially relative to alternative products and listing new innovative products that address many needs in the marketplace. So, so far,

Speaker 2

we're very excited about where we are there.

Speaker 7

We're currently running over 40,000 contracts today. We have the equivalents of more than $1,200,000,000,000 worth of open interest. Obviously, silver, a large and important initiative in addition to the futures side that I just talked about, we've now cleared

Speaker 2

more than $54,000,000,000 with the sulfur interest rate swaps across 30 counterpoints.

Speaker 7

On the future side, we now have well over 3 50 different firms trading our silver futures. So we're very excited about those developments. But if you look at each and every asset class in the financials, what you noted was in our report, we said that we had more than 2,100,000 BDD last year from new product launch since 2010. We had $310,000,000 in revenues. This is across every asset class.

We are continuously innovating. So if you look at equities, for example, over the last few years, we launched the BTEC Basis Trade Index Close, which is got a very high RPC and enjoying very good growth and significantly adds to our revenues. In addition to that, we have the total return in futures. We have the dividend futures. And then obviously, you know very well about the MicroEminis.

Maybe just a brief update on the MicroEminis. We're doing 647,000 contracts a day so far this year. That's up 37% from last year. In addition to that, we did tell you last year when we started in terms of the RPC, when we initially launch a product, we typically have heavy incentives to make sure that there's very high liquidity on day 1, so that everyone always has a good experience in day 1. But we also promised you that we would be reducing those incentives over time.

So if you look at the Q3 RPC, for example, on those micro minis, it was $0.078 If you look at in Q4, that was $0.114 So a very significant increase in that RPC while the product is growing very significantly. If you look then at the RPC on that MicroE Mini, there's more than 80,000 different, what we call, TEG-50s that are trading that. So a huge number of clients. We believe we penetrated tens of thousands of new clients, in particular, larger retail traders. But the other thing I want to get to is just enormous growth in the product, growth in the RPC.

Sorry, the last thing I want to say is a very high premium relative to e minis. So if you do that, the math, as you'll recall, the micros are oneten the size of an e mini. That means risk equivalent, that's $1.10 a contract relative to you can see we reported in our equity index is $0.65 a contract with our average RPC. If you look then, we mentioned in the prepared remarks FX Link, a new record day in January. In addition to that, the other big thing I would mention in foreign exchange in terms of innovations or adjusting the existing product, Late last year, we adjusted the minimum price increment.

It sounds technical, but it's actually very important. We adjusted the minimum price increment in the quarterly roll dollar euro, dollar yen and dollar sterling. Those December rolls then were outstanding, I think it's fair to say, for each of those three products. So in each and every case, the roll volume was up tremendously. The percentage of the open interest that was rolled was up tremendously, and we saw a huge increase in interest from banks and from hedge funds.

We did announce earlier this year that we are now going to likewise be reducing the minimum price increments in Dollar Canada and Aussie Dollar. In addition to that, what impact does that have on our foreign exchange market? Foreign exchange market volatility is incredibly low. If you look at the January volatility, it is the lowest volatility going back to 1992 for the G7 currencies, so incredibly low volatility. Nonetheless, last year, the number of large open interest holders in our foreign exchange business grew by 30%.

And on January 28, we had a new all time record high in large open interest holders in foreign exchange. So we believe these adjustments to our products, even in this very low volatility environment, is having a very positive impact. So every asset class is seeing innovation, new product launches. I could keep mentioning them. One last one I'll mention is we just launched in January also options on our SOVR Futures.

I could go on and on, but hopefully that gives you enough color.

Speaker 3

Yes. Mike, let me just talk real quick about Asia and Europe, and I'll ask Brian to comment a little bit about the growth throughout Europe, because I think that was the second part of your question. And I'll touch just on a quick story about Asia. Last night, Julie Winkler, who is my Chief Commercial Officer held an off-site, which she was scheduled to be with her entire team in Asia, but obviously that was not going to be the case. So they held it here from Chicago.

We have over 200 salespeople today. We have a significant amount of those in Asia. We I actually participated in her presentation, because I happened to be walking by. So I did participate for the 1st hour. And it's quite fascinating to see the enthusiasm amongst the Asian sales folks because of we are now able to leverage our BrokerTec next to a treasury platform.

These are things that sales folks never had before that can hopefully increase the business throughout the region of Asia. We're having great growth through there. So we referenced it in our earlier numbers and we're excited about the prospects of what the sales force can do by creating capital and operational efficiencies with the next transaction as they continue to sell those products throughout the region. And I'll let Brian talk about

Speaker 2

It's been a journey. You've walked along with us over the last few years. You've heard what we've done to build up to the ability to say that we have about $5,000,000 of our volume now coming out of international. You're well aware of the liquidity programs we put in place over the years to build up that activity during the regional time zone. And I think that, that story is just continuing to unfold in a very positive way based on the diversity of the products, the asset classes that we represent, our global sales force that is very, dedicated and attuned to the very specific client segments that do business at our institution.

Over the past 5 years, we've seen over 75% growth in our average daily volume internationally. And what that breaks down to is about 4,000,000 contracts coming out of the EMEA region and around another 1000000 contracts coming out of Asia. This is the 1st year that we were able to, on an average daily volume for the year, really meet and in some instances exceed that $1,000,000 contract level. You'd mentioned that you'd seen double digit growth occurring in various asset classes. Again, it's the beauty of the diversity of our products.

So earlier quarters, you were seeing tremendous growth in the international side in Europe on the interest rate products. This last quarter, we saw a little bit of a slide in terms of interest rates in the European side of the equation, but that was offset by strong growth in terms of our commodities, particularly our gold futures, our platinum futures, our foreign currencies did well. With respect to Asia Pacific, we saw a bit of a downturn in our energy products, but that was highly offset by performance in our interest rate quadrant in our equities. So again, it's the diversity of the products that we have. It's our ability to penetrate these client segments.

You've heard me talk about country planning, which is a rather new phenomena that we've introduced across our sales force and our international teams. Over the course of the last 2 years, we're covering over 70%, I think, at the top 10 countries that are providing the revenues on the international time zone, where we have very, very specific deliverables for our sales force and our business lines and our international teams, and we track those accordingly. Just one last point, if we maintain this level of volume from international, this will be the largest month in our history since 2012, since we started tracking it. This will be our largest ADV month in the month of February. Hopefully that gave

Speaker 3

you a little color, Mike.

Speaker 8

Yes. Thanks a lot.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Thanks, Mike.

Speaker 1

And next we'll move to Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 9

Hi, this is Sherry filling in for Alex. Can you talk about the transition to so far and what sort of preparations have you made? And how should we think about the implications on volumes and the pricing for this product?

Speaker 3

Go ahead, Sean.

Speaker 7

Sure. We've been a member of the alternative reference rate committee now for several years. And we were the leader in terms of introducing to our futures. I already mentioned earlier that we have about $1,200,000,000 was about Pinterest. We're doing over 40,000 contracts a day.

If you look recently in terms of our Silver Futures, we are running 78% of the global volume in Silver Futures in terms of average daily volume, and we're running 94% of the open interest. So I'd say very solid growth in terms of those products. We see this as additive to the rest of our products in terms of FedCon futures and the eurodollar futures, and as well as treasury futures, obviously. Those are net of products that we expect to grow side by side with our existing products. In addition to that, I mentioned earlier on the interest rate swap side, we cleared 50 $4,000,000,000 worth of interest rate swaps.

We have 30 participants now who cleared interest rate swaps with us. And we're working very closely with the industry on development. I did mention also earlier that we did launch software options on our software futures in January. Other things going on this year, later this year, we will be working with the industry. We will be changing the discounting on our interest rate swaps from Fed funds over to SOFR.

So I would say that there's a continuous increase in the adoption of SOFR by our clients and a very goodly ecosystem in terms of trading the Sofar futures. As I said earlier, it's actually, I think, more than 370 participants have been trading the product. So I think it's a very healthy product area and it's growing very nicely.

Speaker 9

Thank you. And anything on the pricing side as to how that would impact long term?

Speaker 7

On the pricing side, I would assume in the beginning when we launch new products, we want to ensure that they are extremely liquid. So in the beginning, we typically offer incentives in order to ensure that we have the liquidity. And with sulfur, I've said this on previous calls, I think we're the natural home for the product. So we offer the most efficient place to trade. We offer into commodity spreads between eurodollar futures and the silver futures, the Tifan futures and silver futures.

In addition to that, from a margin and capital perspective, we offer offsets between the silver futures, euro dollar futures, silver futures, treasury futures, silver futures versus Fed funds futures. So an extremely efficient place to trade. In the beginning, we do have incentives. We do have incentives today. And as I said, we have 94% of the global open interest in the product.

Over time, I would expect us to reduce those incentives, and I expect the pricing to look similar at some point to our eurodollar futures. But at the moment, honestly, there are some incentives.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 1

And we'll move on to Alex Kramm with UBS.

Speaker 2

Hey, good morning, everyone. Wanted to take some of the pricing questions that you got and then maybe take them over to the next side. Can you talk about how you view pricing in those legacy business a little bit more? 1, on the non transaction side, but also on the transaction side, I think there's still a lot of legacy contracts that are fairly fixed. So do you think there will be opportunities as maybe some of that comes up as you maybe move to Globex to maybe restructure some of that?

Or are you pretty happy to kind of keep the volume there no matter what and maybe not participate in the upside, as maybe competition gets a little bit bigger in that space? Thank you. Hi, Alex. This is John. I'll start and Ghishan can chime in.

You're correct. When you look at the Next, the legacy Next businesses, BrokerTec in particular has a large number of bespoke agreements and they tend to vary less with volume than our futures business. When you look at EBS, it's more akin to our futures business in terms of volume activity versus revenue realization. So that's on the market side. On the optimization businesses, the non transaction optimization businesses is much more of a subscription based or monthly based fee for those services.

Obviously, on the transaction side of the optimization businesses, that varies a bit with the amount of activity that's performed. So for example, this quarter, we saw a sequential increase in the amount of revenue generated from the transaction business of the optimization companies that we own. It was actually up about $4,000,000 sequentially. That was primarily because there was more activity at TriReduce. In terms of our we haven't announced any long term plans around pricing.

We're very focused on the transition from the legacy NEX platforms onto Globex. But as we always do, we're always looking at our pricing and we want to make sure that we're very got a very compelling offering and that we've got a very compelling platform for our customers to use. Yes. I think

Speaker 7

underlining what John said, this is Sean, our primary focus now is transitioning the businesses

Speaker 3

on to Globex. So both

Speaker 7

BrokerTec this year and EBS next year on to Globex. And secondly, making sure that we have the single most attractive platform for anyone to trade in terms of our products. So creating new insights between the cash and the futures markets that haven't existed before because we have both sets of products. So we are really focusing on the transition on the go backs, 1. 2, making sure we have the single most attractive products possible.

3, creating new efficiencies that the marketplace has never seen before and 4, cross selling. So cross selling is the thing that we've already that we're already heavily into. In terms of that cross selling, maybe just a couple of points. In particular, we started tracking what we call cross referrals and cross introductions between the cash and futures businesses. And to date, we are now tracking more than 400 cross introductions, where we are having the cash market salespeople introduce clients to our futures folks as well as our futures sales team introducing clients over into the cash markets businesses.

The large portion of those are as we had expected and as we talked about when we launched the transaction. The highest portion is coming from foreign exchange customers in the cash markets as well as the futures markets, looking at the cross sell opportunity, particularly in Europe, the number 2 categories in interest rates. So we're really very focused on the client experience.

Speaker 4

Very helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 1

And we'll move on to Chris Harris with Wells Fargo.

Speaker 2

Thanks. Hi, guys. Thanks, Chris. With the news out there regarding ICE's interest in eBay, can you give us an update on your thoughts regarding M and A and specifically hoping you could address whether you consider somewhat out of the box transactions?

Speaker 3

Well, we won't comment on what was talked about with Intercontinental. As far as our M and A strategy, Chris, as you've seen, we're very deliberate and diligent in how we approach it. And we try to be obviously opportunistic if something arises that we think is right for the value of the shareholders and can increase the value for the client. So we have a long history, and I'm not going to go through all the history of what our integration our transactions have been. We're focused on the NEX integration.

We have 2 years left on that integration process to get both Robotech and EBS on the platform. It's a big part of what we're trying to accomplish. So that's our strategy for now. And obviously, we always look at things, but at the same time, we're laser focused, as I've said before, on complete the integration of this transaction.

Speaker 2

Okay, got it.

Speaker 1

And next we'll move to Kyle Vogt with KBW.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning. Maybe a couple of questions on market data. It looks like the next market data revenues were down $5,000,000 sequentially. Anything to call out there that drove the decline? And then I suppose that implies there was some good sequential growth in CMY's core data revenues.

Just what drove that? Was that the pricing move? And then maybe maybe if you could just give an update on the derived data initiative and the kind of sales progress there?

Speaker 2

All right. Hi, Kyle. This is John. When you take a look at our market data line, from a revenue perspective, it was actually up about $500,000 sequentially from Q3 to Q4. And really when you peel it back, our market data performed very well in the Q4.

In Q3, we had $1,100,000 more in audit findings. And as you know, those audit findings can vary quarter to quarter depending on as those audit findings get realized. So, really if you strip out the audit findings, our market data is actually up $1,500,000 and that's really a function of 2 things. 1, we had a pricing change that we discussed in our non display data. And also we've seen a stabilization on the attrition, which has been helpful.

So the core market data excluding audits is up about $1,500,000 And from a NEX perspective, the market data is relatively flat Q3 to Q4.

Speaker 7

Brian, do you

Speaker 2

want to talk a little bit about the I mean, you covered the pricing, but on the direct side of it, we continue to be very pleased with the demand from the client base in terms of having access to our products, for them to be able to build structured products based off of our data. That business continues to grow and evolve and the interest and the demand is coming from a variety of different client sectors. What I'm most pleased about is our engagement with the consumers of this data, whether it be our core customers, customers being the consumers of the data for trading. So you got to think about this outside the box of subscribers, the traditional subscribers. But those looking at it from the perspective of using data to complement both their trading, development of products that they can sell in house, as well as demand for historical data that they use for a variety of reasons.

And so we've really been trying to more deeply engage with the client base. The audits, quite honestly, that we started almost a couple of I think it was a couple of years back in earnest has really allowed us to capture a much deeper insight into how the variety of client segments utilize our data. That's brought us much closer to the client base itself and the consumers. The other thing that we look very closely at is the distributors of the data. So really drawing a much closer alliance and relationships with the vendors and how we go about pricing that information for them to be able to redistribute our data.

So we're very excited about the foundation and the programs that we've put in place over the last couple of years to help us really grow each of these variety of data offerings. When you look at NEX, as you can appreciate, we had to get into this more deeply this past year in terms of looking at the, maybe the esoteric nature of how that data is utilized by EBS as well as BrokerTec. And so we have a number of plans on the horizon working closely with Sean and his team in terms of how we can better structure and package that information for consumption.

Speaker 5

Thanks. And John, I apologize, the $5,000,000 sequential decline I was looking at was actually for the next other revenue. Could you just provide any clarity on that? I'm sorry.

Speaker 2

No worries, Kyle. Yes, so really the primary driver of the $5,000,000 reduction in the other revenue is, as you recall, in the Q3, we announced that we had completed the sale of the Enzo business. So the majority of that $5,000,000 decline was related to that sale. Got it. Thank you.

All right. No problem.

Speaker 1

And we'll move on to Owen Lau with Oppenheimer.

Speaker 4

Good morning and thank you for taking my question. So I want to touch on the commodities and metals a little bit. So the ADV and open interest of commodities and metals were up quite nicely year over year at the end of January. Could you please talk about some of the drivers of the strength there? So are you taking shares from other exchanges internationally?

Is that continued migration from cash to derivatives? Or is it mainly driven by like volatility events like coronavirus? How should we think about Excellent.

Speaker 2

Yes Excellent. Yes, it's been a good run. It's actually there are 3 different businesses that some are operating in conjunction with others. Some are quite decorrelated when you look at the impact of coronavirus, African swine fever and the Phase 1 trade deal that we've seen unleash. As Brian had mentioned, we've seen particular strength in the commodities businesses, all three of these, most especially our metals business out of Europe and Asia.

I think that's a business that over the last 4 or 5 years, not only have we positioned our COMEX Gold and Silver contracts as the global benchmarks. You're seeing that as more business shifts out of the bilateral swaps market, primarily the London physical market, the bullion market into all markets. We actually regressed our volumes back 20 years. And if you go back over 20 years ago, Comex represented 10% of the total physical and cash combined businesses of futures and cash. Fast forward to today, and COMEX now represents 50% larger volumes than what we've seen in the LVMA business.

So we're seeing that bullion market adopt very much the capital and operational efficiencies of Comex Gold. So we've gone from oneten of that physical market to 50% bigger than that cash market. So the significant growth in uptake is largely driven by U. S. And actually Asian and European customers.

We see that on the competitive numbers. We see that in overall numbers. The business referred to so far this year were up 50%. We see that our Asian business in metals is up 56%. It's up 58% as well in APAC.

So the extent that that business continues to grow, that is both metal and particularly gold as a preferred commodity in uncertain markets in which we operate. And I think us better positioning the futures market as the best solution and product for delivery of that market. Slipping over to our Energy business. I think as referenced earlier in the call, Turia talked about the strong growth we've seen so far this year in our Energy business. Global, the Energy business is up 20% and we're seeing that actually up significantly in Europe as well.

And what we're seeing there is after a year of basically a $10 trade arrangement oil and natural gas sitting at around $2.5 we've seen significant impacts to concerns of global growth and two ways in which the market expressed its view on concerns of global growth is effectively the price of oil. So we've seen that as that bound draft has actually taken place. We saw WTI go from 62% to 52% in the span of 2 weeks on growth concerns. We've seen our business so far this year absolutely take off. So not surprising to see that the preference for global crude trading taking the place in the form of WTI.

It's a global crude oil market story that we've been talking about for the last 3 years, and we see that play very much intact. And I would say even more strongly in natural gas, our business in natural gas is up 40% so far this year and our market share has gone to an all time record of 84% of natural gas futures Henry has in the U. S. So again, when you're seeing markets break out below levels driven by growth rates concerns globally, There's an article that just came out 20 minutes ago on global growth concerns, putting downward pressure on energy prices. The market is coming to CME to use our energy prices to manage that risk.

Lastly, on the ag side, this is a business that's close to $500,000,000 business to the firm. This is a market where we saw record dairy and livestock volumes last year. So as you have saw concerns about African swine flu, in Asia and the concerns about Colony Herds, we saw that risk being managed here at CME Group. Most particularly with the Phase 1 trade agreement now announced, we've seen a resumption of our volume went a little bit sideways in grains and oilseeds last year. We're seeing our ag business up so far 11% this year.

And most notably, when you see where that growth is taking place, we're seeing the business so far up 33% in Europe and up, gosh, 51% in Asia. So again, when the market experiences volatility, uncertainty and breakout ranges, you're seeing the market continue to adopt CME Group global benchmarks, and we're seeing that not just during U. S. Time zone, but to the points Brian has made and to what I referenced earlier, an outsized proportion of new client acquisition in Europe and Asia.

Speaker 4

That's helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you. Thanks, Harry.

Speaker 1

And next we'll move to Ari Ghosh with Credit Suisse.

Speaker 10

Hey, good morning, everyone. And apologies if you've already hit on this, but just wanted to touch on a couple of items that could be incremental to volumes looking forward. So first, just hoping you could give us an update on conversations you're having with clients around navigating UMR and potential cost saves from your FX fee? And then, please moving on to Bitcoin, you continue to see solid volumes and new account growth around Bitcoin as well. So just curious how the institutional ecosystem here is evolving around Bitcoin and your competitive positioning in this emerging asset class as well.

Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Thank you. Sean?

Speaker 7

Yes. So in terms of the unclear margin rules, that's something we've been very focused on now for a number of years, and that will continue to be a tailwind for us over the next couple of years with the extension of the dates by regulators relative to compliance. So we do expect that September of this year, another very large portion of clients will be forced into those uncured marginals. Relative to that, we do see an opportunity to offer clients listed FX options in particular, but also use our FX futures as alternatives to forwards. We added, as you'll recall, a couple of years ago now, monthly futures in addition to our quarterly futures in order to help facilitate that as well as FX Link in order to make that transition from the OTC market over the futures market, the listed market much easier.

As you're rightly pointing out, something that we pointed out, we pointed out for years now, right, is that if you're affected by the uncleared margin rules, you have a 10 day margin period of risk. If you move to an OTC product, and we do now clear both non deliverable forwards as well as cash settled forwards, those are G7 currencies. So we are clearing FX forwards, cash settled FX forwards in the OTC market as well. So uncleared 10 day margin period of risk, cleared OTC is typically a 5 day margin period of risk. We've actually now cleared about $69,000,000,000 dollars worth of NDS and CSS in our OTC FX business,

Speaker 3

relatively small but

Speaker 7

increasing. But the most efficient place is in futures and listed options, which is typically the one they margin period risk. So we do see that to be a continuing tailwind. In addition to that, as well. So in terms of EMR, we can see a as well.

So in terms of EOMR, we can see continued benefit there. And I think you had a second question

Speaker 4

of Bitcoin. Bitcoin continues

Speaker 2

to operate

Speaker 7

well. We're doing around 10,000 contracts a day. And we did launch options on Bitcoin, which are doing well. But honestly, it's a very small part of our market.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

And next we'll take a follow-up question from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks very much. Just want to also sustain my appreciation for Brian Durkin's help over the years and great answers on these earnings calls. And just my other questions were asked already, but just are there any plans to fill the President role or are you eliminating that position?

Speaker 3

Brian, it's Terry Duffy. I'm going to look at that over a period of time. Brian is committed to being here through May and then help advising me thereafter. So he's also joining our Board of Directors, which will also be a benefit to the not only the shareholders, but the employee base as well, which he is a big part of now. So I haven't made a decision about how we're going to move forward with that particular role right now.

I'll work with Brian and others as we continue to evolve and Brian starts his transition into his next life. So let me instead just echo your comments at the beginning. He does give great answers and not only that, he works wonderful with clients and his knowledge will be around for a long time to come. So that is greatly appreciated.

Speaker 6

Thanks very much.

Speaker 3

Thank

Speaker 1

you. And next we'll move to Patrick O'Shaughnessy with Raymond James.

Speaker 2

Hey, guys. It's actually David Farnham on for Patrick. I was wondering for the international business, I was wondering if we could dig into the drivers of your growth across the various regions. So can you speak to your sales headcount ramp over the last few years? Where are we kind of right now across the various regions?

Where was it, say, 5 years ago? And as we look forward, would you anticipate further head count growth to continue to capitalize on the international opportunity? Or do you feel like you're at the correct point right now?

Speaker 3

David, it's Terry Duffy. Right now, our headcount in sales has gone up close to 200 of the CME workforce today and it's spread throughout the world fairly evenly. Obviously, the big part of it is here in the U. S, but in Europe and Asia as well and other parts. Listen, if in fact, the business is growing and I continue to see the benefits, which I have seen by increasing the sales force over the last several years.

You got to remember about 7 to 10 years ago, that number was probably about 10 to 15 people in sales. And now we're sitting at our 200. And you can look at the chart up into the right of the growth of the business and you can correlate that the new count acquisitions that Julie Winkler and our team have been doing along with the sales folks. And as long as we can continue to offer a solution that's more cost benefit to them to participate, and we're going to continue to add our sales folks to do so. It's one of those things you don't want to be a company full of salespeople, but if they are continuing to deliver value, I have no problem increasing the size of that staff as long as the business is reflective of what they are producing.

Speaker 7

Great. Very helpful. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Thanks.

Speaker 1

And that will conclude today's question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to the management for any additional or closing remarks.

Speaker 3

Yes, we appreciate it very much, and we look forward to speaking with all of you next quarter. Have a nice day. Thank you.

Speaker 1

And that will conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation.

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