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CAGNY 2024 Investor Conference

Feb 20, 2024

Steve Powers
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

It's 120th anniversary, which is a tremendous milestone in and of itself. However, equally, if not more, impressive is the momentum with which Coty has entered into this anniversary, the culmination of three and a half years of very strong financial and operational results. With us today from Coty to highlight those results and articulate the path forward are Chief Executive Officer Sue Nabi and Chief Financial Officer Laurent Mercier. Together, Sue and Laurent will tell us how Coty plans to leverage its six strategic pillars to consistently grow ahead of the beauty market, steadily grow profit ahead of sales, further deleverage the balance sheet, and position the company as a true beauty powerhouse for another 120 years. Let's thank Coty again for today's lunch, and with that, over to you, Sue.

Sue Nabi
CEO, Coty Inc

Thank you very much, Steve. Good afternoon. Hello everyone. Welcome. So as you know, we're super excited to be presenting at CAGNY for the second time. This year, as you can imagine, is significant to us for a number of reasons. First, it's been three and a half exciting years of Coty outperforming, sorry, the beauty market and delivering on our strategy in a very profitable way. Second, it's clear more than ever that the company is a beauty powerhouse with significant untapped potential. And finally, as you have hopefully seen during the lunch right before this presentation, this year we are celebrating our 120th anniversary. Coty and our brands are iconic and historic beauty pioneers, and at the same time, our result and outlook confirm that we are, as a company, as vibrant as ever and ready to lead the way in beauty for the coming century.

Let's take a look at a short video on this.

Speaker 4

Born from a bold vision 120 years ago, Coty embarked on a journey that reshaped the beauty industry. It was a spark that ignited creative action and became a catalyst for change. What began as a small fragrance house in 1904 has transformed into a global portfolio that continues to celebrate the power of innovation and its ability to undefine and reimagine the very essence of beauty. Our visionary pursuit has been the unyielding force that has propelled us forward, driving us to break free from past constraints and establish new and different ways of being. We embrace the beauty and power of vision by nurturing a culture of fearless exploration and creativity. We have dared to dream beyond what was once thought possible and are shaping a future where beauty transcends boundaries and empowers infinite iterations of self-expression.

In celebration of our 120th anniversary, we honor the legacy of all those who have contributed to our evolution and growth. Coty and the beauty landscape have been forever transformed by these visionaries. As we write the next chapter for Coty, we reaffirm our commitment to the beauty of a vision while continuing to pursue and unleash all visions of beauty.

Sue Nabi
CEO, Coty Inc

So we're going to start today with an overview of who Coty is, then focus on our strategy, the progress we've made, and the significant white space opportunities in front of us. Then Laurent will review our strong financial progress over the past three years and a half, and finally, our attractive growth algorithm. So let me start by sharing with you an overview of Coty. We've established Coty as a beauty powerhouse, but there are plenty of opportunities ahead. As you can see on this slide, Coty is a well-established player in beauty. Last year, we reported $5.6 billion in revenues, over $970 million in EBITDA. We operate in over 120 countries. We have roughly 11,000 employees. We have eight manufacturing plants, including the largest fragrance manufacturing plant in the world located in Barcelona, and we maintain the top three position, fragrances and mass color cosmetics.

A key differentiator of Coty today versus the Coty several years ago is the fact that this company is now led by a team of seasoned beauty executives, as you can see it on the slide. Most of our leaders have 20-25 years of beauty experience, and combined, we have 300 years. Our portfolio is diversified across categories and price points. In the last year, Prestige Fragrances accounted for roughly 55% of the mix. Mass color cosmetics is the second largest category at roughly 25%. Skincare and Prestige Cosmetics are still fairly small but represent a sizable opportunity, and body care and Consumer Beauty fragrances are each high single digits. Given our premiumized portfolio, over 60% of our business is in Prestige Beauty. We are also diversified geographically. North America is roughly a third of the revenues. Western Europe is a quarter of the revenues.

We are still relatively small in Latin America, in China, in Asia-Pacific, but we see a lot of opportunity to grow meaningfully in each of these markets. And travel retail is 8% of sales and growing at an exceptional rate. A critical part of our strategy is our unwavering focus on driving balanced growth. Our first-half fiscal 2024 like-for-like growth is balanced across segments, across regions, volume, price, and mix. We delivered 18% like-for-like growth in Prestige and 7% growth in Consumer Beauty. This was fueled by low single-digit volume growth, low single-digit mix benefit, and high single-digit expansion in price. Geographically, our growth was broad-based with double-digit growth in all regions. Coty continues to outperform the beauty market and our leading peers, as you can see it quite clearly on this slide.

We have delivered strong like-for-like revenue growth over the past 10 quarters, and in eight out of these 10 quarters, we have been the fastest-growing global beauty company. You can see here our beautiful portfolio of brands that reach consumers across all price points, starting with mass brands like CoverGirl and Rimmel, with many products priced under $10, all the way up to ultra-premium part of the market, with brands like Orveda and soon Infiniment Coty Paris, priced between $150-$450. Our sales growth is also very well balanced by brands. Not only do we have a broad-based portfolio of brands, with even our leading brands at or below around 10% of revenues, but we aren't overly reliant on any one brand to drive our growth.

Our fiscal 2023 like-for-like growth of 12% was driven by a balanced mix of Prestige brands like Hugo Boss, Calvin Klein, Burberry, and Consumer Beauty brands like Rimmel, CoverGirl, or Brazilian brand Monange. As we've continued to drive the premiumization of our portfolio, our Prestige division now accounts for 62% of the sales, up from 52% in fiscal 2019. The 10% increase in Prestige revenue mix is proof that our strategy to premiumize is working, led by our growing presence in Prestige Fragrances, Prestige Makeup, and Prestige Skincare. We still have ambition for further premiumization and expect that Prestige will account for more than two-thirds of our revenues by fiscal 2027. A key differentiator of Coty is our end-to-end capabilities and manufacturing footprint, as you can see it on this slide. We have eight manufacturing facilities across four continents, and several are carbon neutral, by the way.

We produce over 1 billion products annually in state-of-the-art facilities in a world where global supply chains have been disrupted over the last few years, where localized manufacturing is increasingly important, and where scaled players are prioritized by suppliers. Our manufacturing capabilities are a crucial competitive advantage. In fact, we manufacture roughly 80% of our products in-house. Hand in hand with our leading manufacturing capabilities are our extensive commercial and distribution reach. We have sales organizations directly running our operations in over 20 countries and directly and indirectly reaching over 120 markets. Our brands reach over 100,000 doors globally, from the leading luxury department stores to niche perfumeries, specialty retailers, mass merchants, duty-free stores, e-com pure players, and, of course, social media platforms, which are increasingly transforming into commerce platforms. There are very few players who rival our commercial scale and reach in this business.

Let me take a minute to share a great recent achievement from the company. Last week, the Drucker Institute, in conjunction with The Wall Street Journal, announced their list of the top 250 best-run American companies. Coty was named the company with the biggest improvements in our scores and ranking versus last year, based on third-party data assessing customer satisfaction, employees' engagement and development, innovation, social responsibility, and, of course, financial strength. I'm really incredibly, I have to say, proud of this accomplishment as it reinforces the significant improvements we have made across our business in the last few years, operationally, financially, and culturally. Our business model is, as you can see it here again on this slide, anchored on driving balanced growth across owned and licensed brands. In Prestige Fragrances, $40 billion market-growing mid- to high-single digits.

Our incredibly strong partnership with leading licenses like Hugo Boss, Marc Jacobs, Burberry means that, on average, we have over a dozen years remaining for our top seven licenses. We're also building our portfolio for the long- term as we add new licenses like Marni and Etro. We're also very well established in the $40 billion Consumer Beauty makeup market, which is growing low to mid-single digits and where our own brands like CoverGirl, Rimmel, and Max Factor are excelling. Looking forward, we're targeting white space opportunities in Prestige Skincare, ultra-premium niche fragrances, Prestige Makeup, and lifestyle fragrances and wellness. And here again, we will be leveraging a combination of Coty owned brands and licensed brands to win in these very attractive categories. In the $70 billion Prestige Skincare market, we have begun activating core Coty brands like Lancaster, Philosophy, and Orveda with promising initial results.

The ultra-premium niche fragrance market is still relatively small at roughly $4 billion but growing very quickly, and our extension of some of our licensed brands like Chloé and Burberry into this segment are already proving successful, with more to come as we introduce niche collections under Infiniment Coty Paris, Jil Sander Collection, Marni, and Etro Collections. In the $30 billion Prestige Makeup market now, we've expanded some brands like Burberry and Gucci into this space while at the same time driving the strong Gen Z appeal of Kylie Cosmetics. And finally, we will leverage the strength of our lifestyle fragrance brands like Mexx, David Beckham, or Vera Wang to capture a portion of the $36 billion lifestyle fragrance and wellness market.

With that overview of who Coty is, let me now share, number one, the great progress we've made in executing on our strategy and then the significant white space opportunities still in front of us, starting with our six-pillar strategy that you are now familiar with, which we are reaffirming and refining, consistent with the evolution of the beauty market. First, growing our Consumer Beauty business. Our mission is to outperform the mass market through disruptive innovation amplified by social media advocacy. Second, accelerating our luxury fragrance business and establishing Coty in Prestige Makeup. We will open the door to luxury to more global consumers while continuing to elevate the Prestige Fragrance experience. Third, building our skincare portfolio over the mid to long- term led by our Prestige brands.

Our focus is on winning over the most discerning skincare consumers in our areas of excellence: photoaging prevention and repair for Lancaster, biotech-enhanced longevity science for Orveda, and microdose solutions for Philosophy. Fourth, step-changing our organizational growth capabilities, including but not limited to digital and R&D. We are shaping Coty into an organization which can create the must-have beauty products of tomorrow and capture the viral demand. Fifth, expanding in Travel Retail, China, and other emerging markets as we introduce the next wave of middle and upper-class consumers to the world of Coty brands. And sixth, becoming a sustainability leader, reinforcing our business for the long- term, starting with Consumer Beauty where our strategy is anchored on leading the market with disruptive innovations fully amplified by advocacy marketing.

We are now 3.5 years into our journey, so it's very important to frame what we've achieved and what's to come. Between fiscal 2021 and fiscal 2023, we executed our Consumer Beauty turnaround, including relaunching all of our brands, returning the division to sustain sales growth in line to ahead of the market, and steadily improving the division's margin structure. Now we are entering the next phase of acceleration, anchored on, first, accelerating our cosmetic brand through advocacy and disruptive innovation. Second, driving the division's profit engines: nail and lifestyle fragrances. Third, accelerating in emerging markets. And fourth, significantly expanding our margins. The work we've done to relaunch our Consumer Beauty brand is paying off. We have leading brand equities across countries like CoverGirl in the U.S., Rimmel in the U.K., and Germany, Sally Hansen and Adidas across a variety of markets.

Even with the momentum of newer beauty brands, the latest Kantar data confirms that CoverGirl's brand equity in the U.S. and Rimmel's equity in the U.K. remains above key competitors, including ELF. We already returned Consumer Beauty to strong sales growth, including 8% like-for-like growth in fiscal 2022, 16% in fiscal 2023, and 7% in the first half of the current fiscal. In fiscal 2022, we were a little ahead of the market. In fiscal 2023, we underperformed by a few points driven by some supply constraints and the work we were doing to refine our innovation and marketing strategy. This work is paying off, and revenue growth the first half of fiscal 2024 is once again in line with the market. Of course, our focus is to deliver growth in line to ahead of the market.

We intend, as you know it, to launch viral innovation like Yummy Gloss that we did last year. Speaking of viral innovation, we just launched CoverGirl's Simply Ageless Skin Perfector Essence. Let's have a look at the video.

Speaker 4

Hey, CoverGirls. CoverGirls need no filters. With the new Simply Ageless Skin Perfector Essence. Where skincare meets makeup. First and blend. For bare skin filter effect. That is all you. The new Skin Perfector Essence from CoverGirl.

Sue Nabi
CEO, Coty Inc

So CoverGirl Essence Foundation marks a new milestone in our leadership in skinified and clean makeup. This is a first-to-mass product whose distinctiveness is immediately visible in the bottle and well-positioned, therefore, for social media. The launch has been amplified by 5,000 influencers, and we are seeing great early results.

CoverGirl reached the number four rank in earned media value in December with an EMV that is multiple times above the EMV we generated on CoverGirl over a full year. And I'm proud to share that it has already become the number one new makeup launch on Amazon. Our mission is, of course, to continue and accelerate this playbook across our other key brands and, of course, markets. It's important to highlight our business in lifestyle fragrances and in nail, two areas where we are the market leader globally, which account for a mid-teens percentage of division sales and are highly profitable. We aim to overdrive these categories to triple the growth of the division and its profitability. In a market where demand for fragrances is booming, brands like Bruno Banani, David Beckham, and Nautica offer consumers luxurious but affordable alternatives. And they are leading in their respective markets.

Bruno Banani is the number one German fragrance brand. Beckham is the number four fragrance brand in U.K., and Nautica is number four in this country. Shifting now to the nail segment, where we are the number one leader in nail globally with 21% market share, fueled by nail brands like Sally Hansen but also Risqué, a Brazilian brand, but also strong nail franchises under our key color cosmetic brands like Max Factor, Rimmel, or Bourjois. Sally Hansen is the undisputed leader in nail color and treatments in the U.S. with over 40% share. We're extending into artificial nails, already capturing 2% of that market in one year. We intend, as you can imagine, to capitalize on this and accelerate our brands further in the profitable nail category. We also intend to capture our fair share in emerging markets.

Brazil is an example of a market where we are already very strong but have many opportunities. Risqué is the market leader in nail with over 30% share and 36% growth in the first half of fiscal 2024. Brands like Monange and Paixão hold the number one position in body oil, a number two position in body lotion, and the first to rank in household penetration in the country. What's next for Brazil? First, our leading distribution will provide a great platform to enter the mass fragrance category. We've recently entered 4,000 doors, targeting over 15,000 over time. Second, we are establishing a center of excellence in Brazil to develop body care and beauty for melanin-rich skins. Third, we began to expand the Risqué nail brand into other Latin American markets. Finally, we are exploring leveraging our low-cost production in Brazil to other emerging markets.

As you know it, we are laser-focused on Consumer Beauty's margin structure led by gross margin expansion. First, after the successful deployment of strategic revenue management programs in the U.K., we are now deploying this in the U.S. and in Germany. Second, we are taking portfolio decisions with a view to profitability, including which areas to accelerate or slow and where to allocate investments. Third, we are continuing our material value analysis on all non-value-add components. And finally, where relevant, we will be taking very targeted pricing initiatives. You can see the initial results of this margin expansion efforts on this slide. In the last two years, we've reduced our Consumer Beauty SKU count by 6% while increasing revenue per SKU by 18% and gross profit per SKU by 46%.

Of course, there is still a lot more work to be done as we look to expand our operating margins in Consumer Beauty by several points in the coming years. Moving to our second strategic pillar, which is all about opening the door to luxury to more and more consumers around the world through luxury fragrances and luxury makeup. The Prestige Fragrance market grew 21% in fiscal 2022 and roughly 10% in the last year and a half. And with our strong execution and leading brand portfolio, we've consistently outperformed this market. It's helpful to remind what's underpinning this strong and sustained Prestige Fragrance category. Consumers globally are seeing fragrances as both affordable luxuries and feel-good items. And as a result, consumers are moving up the fragrance penetration curve.

Prestige Fragrance penetration in the U.S. has grown strongly, and existing users are using fragrances more often, but penetration still remains well below that in Europe. Similarly, in China, fragrance penetration remains in the single digits, while amongst Gen Z consumers in Tier 1 cities, penetration is already over 20%, which is a great leading indicator. All of this supports our expectation that fragrance demand will grow above historical levels. Coty, as you know it, is a natural partner for global luxury houses to expand their brands into the world of beauty. This is due to our leading end-to-end capabilities, including multi-category beauty expertise, a track record of leading innovation accelerating, a portfolio of key technologies and patents, leading manufacturing capabilities, and extensive distribution and commercial capabilities.

Building up such capabilities in-house is prohibitively costly, time-consuming, and risky, which is why we have been partnering with many of our brands for over two decades. We have a high-quality portfolio of licensed brands with longstanding relationships lasting over 25 years. We don't have any sizable licenses up for renewal in the next four years and a half. The average remaining duration of Coty's top seven licenses is now 12 years and a half, with the effective duration higher given one of these licenses is evergreen and automatically renews based on certain criteria. As was emphasized, the growth we are delivering in Prestige Fragrances is broad-based. Each of our top seven brands, Prestige brands, sorry, grew by double digits in calendar 2023 regardless of price points, in spite of the fact that on the fashion side, several of these brands witnessed subdued performance.

Our focus, of course, is on investing and fueling momentum in brands where we see the biggest potential in the short, in the medium, and in the long- term. This year's highlight has been the stellar performance of Burberry Goddess, which is a top 1-top 3 female fragrance launch in many key markets and the most successful launch in Coty's history. The spectacular success of Burberry Goddess has been the result of a new proprietary savoir-faire within Coty to develop blockbuster fragrances. We cannot discuss this in detail for competitive reasons, but this new way of doing is being deployed within Coty to develop future fragrance launches. Burberry, as you can see on this slide, is now gaining market share across all key markets, propelled by Goddess, by Her, and by Hero franchises, which are all expanding.

The success of Goddess and Burberry's other key franchises has fueled a significant increase in the rankings of the total brand, now reaching a top 10 position worldwide. Burberry beauty sales are over 2x higher than what they were in 2019 when we started to operate the license. Our strategy to accelerate Hugo Boss, a license we extended beyond 2035, is also paying off, as you can see it in the figures. We are premiumizing the brand, first with Bottled Parfum, and this year with Bottled Elixir. As a result, Hugo Boss is gaining market share across Europe. For Chloé, our premiumization strategy has been led by strongly accelerating the ultra-premium collection called Atelier des Fleurs. We focus on Asia and travel retail and certain European markets. You can see on the result here with Chloé gaining share across France, Germany, but also in China.

We have a strong fragrance innovation pipeline for calendar 2024 again. We just launched the latest addition to the iconic Marc Jacobs Daisy franchise called Daisy Wild. We are very excited about the potential for this launch, supported by a Gen Z-focused campaign and the distinctive bottle you are seeing on the screen. In the coming months, we will also announce another Gen Z-focused premium female fragrance. In the fall, we will launch an extension under a top-selling female fragrance pillar. Our focus remains on bringing newness to market while, at the same time, fueling our existing icons. Our strategy remains firmly rooted in the premiumization of our portfolio. Within Prestige Fragrances, we are steadily shifting our mix from Eau de Toilette to Eau de Parfum and Elixirs, which by nature are priced more than 30% higher than Eau de Toilette.

In the last 3.5 years, we have significantly expanded the proportion of those more premium products, Parfum and Elixir, from approximately 46% of the mix in fiscal 2021 to 55% of the mix in fiscal 2024. The other element of our premiumization strategy is of growing our ultra-premium fragrance offer business, which are priced at more than double the base business. Beginning a couple of years ago, we launched ultra-premium collections under Chloé, Gucci, Burberry, and Hugo Boss, all of which are performing very well. We will soon formally launch the Infiniment Coty Paris ultra-premium Pure Player line, which will be a key addition to our ultra-premium portfolio on the part that is growing the fastest, which is the Pure Player niche brands.

We are on track for these collections to generate over $80 million of sales this year and are targeting over $200 million of revenues by fiscal 2027. Importantly, this is a relatively small percentage of the rapidly growing ultra-premium fragrance segment. Our ambition is, of course, to capture our fair market share of over 10%. Our Prestige Fragrance portfolio remains robust and diverse and dynamic, with brands ranging from timeless icons to effervescent and playful spanning different distribution scales and regions. We are strengthening and balancing the portfolio further as we add new brands. Two weeks ago, we announced that we signed a long-term license with Marni. Today, we've announced another new license, Etro. Etro is an Italian luxury brand founded in 1968, known for its quality craftsmanship and strongly positioned in Europe and Asia-Japan.

Through our license agreement beyond 2040, we are excited to build a strong business of new premium and ultra-premium fragrances under this brand. We also signed a long-term license with Marni, an Italian luxury brand known for its artistic collections. The brand has particularly very strong appeal amongst Gen Z consumers in Asia and in Europe. We will be launching the Marni beauty line in the next couple of years. In sum, the licensing model is more attractive than ever. By combining leading luxury names, our end-to-end capabilities, a long-term partnership structure, and a diversified base of distinct brands, this sets the path to reach a leading position in fragrance and in beauty. Soon, as you know it, we will also be officially launching our ultra-premium brand, Infiniment Coty Paris. You can tag, by the way, if you want to follow the line. This is a major milestone.

It's the first time in half a century that there will be a Coty branded fragrance. Even with Coty's 120-year history, Infiniment Coty is anchored in modernity with a patent-pending formulation for the first time in fragrances, fully sustainable juice and packaging, and a collection of scents which are simultaneously luxurious, niche, and wearable. We hope you enjoyed experiencing the brand and smelling the product during today's lunch and as part of your gift box. And we encourage you to follow, as I said it before, the brand Instagram account, which started a few days ago as we launched this new chapter. We are also building up our Prestige cosmetics business, as you can see it on this beautiful slide, focusing on steady and profitable expansion.

As shown here, our recently opened Burberry Beauty Boutique in Selfridges, London, offers consumers the full Burberry assortment of fragrance, ultra-premium collection, and, of course, makeup. For Kylie Cosmetics, we are continuing to expand the brand globally, led by travel retail, locations where we are on track to have over 250 doors this year, including the Mumbai airport, as you can see it on this slide. In fact, Kylie Cosmetics is the number one indie makeup brand in travel retail Americas and the number two indie makeup brand in travel retail Europe, confirming the brand resonates with Gen Z consumers worldwide. Across our Prestige cosmetics brand, we have been expanding our assortment as we've launched foundations under Kylie, under Burberry, and under Gucci.

The business is performing well, as you can see it, growing double digits in Q2, with makeup reaching 30%-40% of China brand sales for both Burberry and Gucci. In fact, Gucci has now reached a top 10 position in Asia in lip and face powders. Of course, the next milestone of our Prestige makeup business is Marc Jacobs Beauty. Having extended the Marc Jacobs license and expanded the scope to include makeup, we are now actively developing a very exciting collection and look to launch it in the next couple of years. Now I'd like to focus on skincare, which we believe represents a significant white space opportunity for us in the mid to long- term, enabled by Coty's technologies and brands. As you know it, Lancaster has been at the forefront of the biggest skincare innovation over the past 70 years.

This brand introduced the first retinol patent, the first DNA repair technology, the first skin oxygenation technology, vectorization of active ingredients, and, of course, patented Full Light Protection. Our patents behind these critical technologies extend ranging from 2027 to 2032. We are winning over discerning skincare consumers in our areas of excellence: photoaging prevention and repair for Lancaster, biotech-enhanced longevity science for Orveda, and microdose solutions for Philosophy. As you can see it here, we have a robust brand portfolio covering the full range of price points and subsegments, from Monange and Paixão at the entry level in Brazil to Philosophy at entry premium, Lancaster at prestige and ultra premium, and Orveda at the ultra premium side of the market. We launched our leading skincare brand, Lancaster, Philosophy, and Orveda less than a year ago and are already recognized by the most prestigious beauty awards and beauty editors.

Lancaster Ligne Princière has garnered awards from the leading Chinese beauty publications, including, as you can see it, Vogue, Elle, and Marie Claire. Philosophy has also been recognized by People Magazine, Cosmopolitan, Oprah Daily, and, of course, QVC Awards. Orveda was awarded several exclusive beauty awards, including the most prestigious award of the beauty industry, Prix d'Excellence Marie Claire, but also Elle Beauty Award and Bazaar Best of Beauty. Awards and recognition of our brands are very important steps and elevate the brand position, increase consumer awareness and willingness to try, and reinforce scientific credentials and efficacious technology behind our formulations. Our skincare brands, as you can see it here, are distinct in their brand equities, technologies, price points, and each has its distinct commercial strategy. For Philosophy, we are focused on Ulta, QVC, and e-com, including a very strong direct-to-consumer presence.

For Lancaster, we are focused on department stores and e-com platforms. For Orveda, we will remain very selective, building the brand through dedicated maisons, high-end perfumeries, and select e-com channels. While we are still early in our skincare journey, we are seeing a very positive momentum. Philosophy sales grew for the third consecutive quarter after years of Lancaster performance. Our focus on the brand's loyal consumers and natural advocacy is paying off, with Philosophy now ranking at the number four in EMV in the U.S., which is an improvement of three ranks versus the previous year. For Lancaster, we are seeing the best return on investment coming when we focus on UV protection and photoaging repair benefits, which will help accelerate the growth of the brand in China. Importantly, Lancaster sales have also grown for the third consecutive quarter.

For Orveda, the door productivity has increased up to 3x higher versus a year ago. We are, of course, continuing to learn, to adjust, and reinforce our marketing and commercial strategies behind this key skincare brand. Let's now get a glimpse at our recently opened Orveda Maison in Shanghai, embodying an ultra-luxury experience while mixing futuristic and traditional Chinese codes. Now let's focus on step-changing our organizational capabilities, particularly in digital and R&D. We are shaping Coty to create must-have products and, of course, capture the viral demand. As you can see it, our significantly strengthened digital capabilities are evidenced in our result in both divisions. In Prestige, e-com sales grew 24% like-for-like, contributing over a third of divisional growth. In Prestige, e-com penetration is now close to 30%, up 130 basis points from last year.

We have gained 50 basis points of market share in Prestige e-com, which makes us today the second player in this channel globally. In Consumer Beauty, e-com sales grew 29% like-for-like, contributing here again to a third of the growth of the division. e-com penetration in the division is now 11%, up 150 basis points from last year. We've gained here 60 basis points of market share in the mass beauty e-commerce environment. Shifting now to our R&D expertise, we have over 100 years of expertise across each of our core categories of fragrances and color cosmetics. We have a robust patent portfolio in skincare and fragrances. We have strong teams of scientists and industry experts working on each of these categories.

As you can see, it, while we have been increasing our R&D spend in recent years, our intent is to significantly grow our R&D investment by 1.6x in the next three to four years. Moving now to our fifth pillar, which is expanding our presence in travel retail in China and on key emerging markets. Our goal is to introduce the new middle and upper-class consumers to the world of beauty. Our travel retail business continues to boom, growing over 20% in the first half, even after cycling over 30% last year. The channel now accounts for 8% of our business and a mid-teens percentage of Prestige. This is, as you know it, a key growth driver for us as travel retail is nicely margin accretive. In calendar 2022, we gained travel retail share, reaching the second position in this channel.

Initial data indicates that we once again outperformed the travel retail beauty category in calendar 2023 across the three regions, again gaining market share. At CAGNY last year, we set a target to grow travel retail by over 50% to $600 million in fiscal 2026. Today, we are on track to reach this $600 million sales target by fiscal 2025, which is a year ahead of schedule. China now accounts for roughly 4% of our sales and is nicely profitable, led by our Prestige business. While the broader market recovery remains slower than many anticipated, our small presence allows us to grow strongly with our Prestige business, outperforming the market by 30 points. China isn't the only market we're actively building our presence and expanding our brands. We have strong relative positions and revenue growth across multiple emerging markets, including Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, or India.

In total, emerging markets account for roughly 17% of our sales. We expect this to be a key driver of the growth in the coming years. Finally, our sixth strategic pillar, which is progressing towards sustainability. In the past year, we've had a number of critical milestones, including surpassing our recycling targets, having 100% of our own supply chain using renewable electricity, and reaching Scope one and two carbon neutrality in three of our factories and our Amsterdam headquarters. Importantly, we have committed to setting net-zero aligned targets. We are also continuing to drive more sustainable innovation, following our breakthrough introduction of carbon-captured ethanol in our fragrances. Infiniment Coty Paris will be the first full fragrance collection to use this 100% recycled ethanol. We are also steadily increasing refillable solutions for our products, including Burberry Goddess. Six of our brands are today certified cruelty-free.

On the people pillar, to finish with, we expanded our gender-neutral parental leave policy to set a global minimum of 14 fully paid weeks for all employees, regardless of location or gender. We also continue to make progress towards gender-balanced leadership. In fact, 47% of our leaders and the majority of the board and our executive committee are now women. And this is complemented by our sustained commitment to gender pay equity. With that, Laurent will discuss our financial progress and medium-term outlook. Thank you.

Laurent Mercier
CFO, Coty Inc

Thank you, Sue. In addition to all of the great strategic progress Sue just discussed, Coty has made very substantial financial progress in the last three years and a half. We have significantly improved our P&L and balance sheet. Let's start with the P&L.

Based on our expectations for fiscal year 2024, in the last three years, we are on track to deliver like-for-like net revenue CAGR of approximately 12%, an adjusted EBITDA at a CAGR of approximately 12%-13%, and grow our adjusted EPS by approximately 9x . Fueling the strong profit growth has been very strong margin expansion. Gross margins have increased by roughly 400 basis points since fiscal 2021. The combination of strong top-line growth, gross margin expansion, and savings delivery have allowed us to step up our marketing investments, which remain in the high 20s%. On adjusted operating margin, we are on track to increase by roughly 450 basis points to approximately 14% for fiscal year 2024. At the same time, we have significantly improved the health of our balance sheet. Last year, we generated around $400 million and expect fiscal year 2024 to be broadly consistent.

Debt leveraging has been a top focus. I am proud to say that we have lower leverage by approximately 4x in the last three and a half years, ending calendar year 2023 with leverage of approximately 3x . We have also been generating strong savings to fuel our agenda. We are on track to deliver $110 million-$120 million in savings in fiscal year 2024 and another $75 million in fiscal year 2025 for a grand total of approximately $800 million from fiscal year 2021 to fiscal year 2025. We are also reiterating the fiscal year 2024 guidance we discussed on our earnings call a few weeks ago.

As a reminder, we are guiding to a strong fiscal 2024 with revenue growth of 9%-11% like-for-like, modest gross margin expansion, low double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth ahead of our gross algorithm of 9%-11%, and total adjusted EPS, excluding the equity swap, of $0.44-$0.47. While our fiscal 2024 guidance implies a somewhat slower second half, I want to be clear that we are not seeing a sudden slowdown in beauty demand. Rather, our first half was very strong and partially aided by lower comparables last year, while in the second half, there are a few one-off elements that come into play. First, we will see a low to mid-single-digit impact in our Prestige business from difficult comparables last year from retailer restocking. Second, we expect forex to be at a low single-digit headwind to both reported sales and profit.

And third, the second half will include headwinds from Lacoste divestiture, without which our profit in the second half will be up in the double-digit % with a much stronger margin expansion. To be clear, this was always contemplated in our fiscal year 2024 outlook. While these are all temporary factors, from a sellout perspective, we continue to expect to outperform the market similar to the first half. To sum up, I want to emphasize that growth remains strong, the beauty market remains healthy, and our fiscal year 2024 guidance implies low double-digit growth in EBITDA, which is above our medium-term algorithm of 9%-11%. With a strong financial improvement in the last three years and a half, let me turn to the path ahead.

Looking out over the next three years, we continue to expect a like-for-like revenue CAGR at the upper end of 6%-8% with balanced contribution from volume, mix, and targeted pricing in each of our key categories. Beginning with Consumer Beauty, excluding skin, we expect our business to grow at a mid-single-digit percentage CAGR, outperforming the market growing low to mid-single-digit. This outperformance will be supported by our acceleration in emerging markets, lifestyle scenting, and nail, while market share gains in our core markets could offer potential upside. In our largest segment, Prestige fragrances, we expect to grow at a high single-digits percentage ahead of the market growth of mid to high single-digits percentage, which is still above the historical category growth levels of low to mid-single-digits.

Our growth in the Prestige fragrances will be driven by our strategy to overdrive core and new markets and accelerating in ultra-premium fragrances. In Prestige cosmetics, we expect to grow at a CAGR of 10%-20%, focusing on steady and profitable expansion with potential upside from our launch, Marc Jacobs Beauty. Finally, in skincare, we expect to grow at a CAGR of 15%-25% as the portfolio expands through a typical S-curve cycle. Consistent with what we have shared, our focus is on driving a balanced growth agenda. Before we go into our expected revenue mix evolution by category, I wanted to mention that we have more rigorously classified the revenue streams for brands covering multiple categories. Specifically, Philosophy's legacy fragrance sales have been reclassified into fragrances, while the skincare lines under Paixão and Monange have been included in the skincare.

The net impact for fiscal 2023 total skincare sales is fairly negligible. Based on our targeted growth algorithm by fiscal year 2027, we expect Prestige fragrance to still be our largest category at the mid-50s of the total. This is higher than what we shared last year based on our expectations for the category to remain strong and for Coty to outperform, supported by growth in ultra-premium, new markets, and our new licenses. Lifestyle fragrance to grow a few % in the mix as we overdrive this category. Skincare to reach a high single-digits % of sales from 4% currently. This is a little lower than our prior ambition in large view to the slower recovery of the China market, particularly in the skincare category and our focus on building out our skincare brands in a healthy and sustainable way.

Prestige cosmetics to be a mid-single-digits % of sales from 3% currently as we focus on profitable growth. Similarly, from a regional standpoint, we remain confident in the solid growth potential of Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the rest of the world. However, our outsize growth will come from the U.S., given the size of the market and healthy demand fundamentals, travel retail, where our growth trajectory has accelerated and we are a year ahead of plan in reaching our sales target objectives, and China, where we expect to more than double driven by Prestige. Based on the regional growth algorithm, we expect continued diversification in our regional sales footprint. Specifically, by fiscal year 2027, we expect travel retail to reach roughly 10% of sales from 8% currently.

For China, we expect to reach mid- to high-single-digit % of sales, a couple of points below prior targets based on the current trajectory on the market. In effect, the strength of travel retail and developed markets is balancing the slower China. We are also diversifying our portfolio by capturing white space opportunities in emerging markets, which make up 17% of our portfolio, and we expect to grow to around 20% by fiscal year 2027. Turning to the P&L growth algorithm, our outlook remains largely consistent with the algorithm we shared at our investor day in November 2021 and our investor day last July. We continue to see a like-for-like CAGR at the upper end of the 6%-8% over the next three years and beyond.

We continue to expect gross margins in the mid-60s% by fiscal year 2025 and mid- to high-60s% by fiscal year 2027, driving a 9%-11% EBITDA CAGR. We continue to target a mid-20s% EPS CAGR supported by lower interest expense as we deliver and gradual reduction in the share count. Over the past few years, we have steadily reduced our leverage, and we are on track to reduce our leverage towards 2.5x exiting calendar year 2024. By fiscal year 2027, we expect adjusted EBITDA in the $1.4-$1.5 billion range, free cash flow over $500 million, leverage of around 2x exiting calendar year 2025 and beyond. Finally, this brings me to the framework for our capital structure and anticipated capital returns. First, we exited calendar year 2023 with net debt of approximately $3.3 billion and leverage of 3.1x.

Over the next two years, we expect to generate at least $400 million free cash flow annually or over $800 million cumulatively. We continue to target the divesting Wella stake by the end of calendar 2025. Our capital allocation priorities remain deleveraging and cash returns to shareholders, including executing the first tranche of our equity swap agreement by the end of this month, which will result in a share count reduction of 27 million. This should drive a very attractive capital structure by the end of calendar year 2025, including net debt below $2.5 billion and leverage around 2x, which we expect to reach through our free cash flow generation and EBITDA expansion, cash returns to shareholders, including additional share buyback associated with our previously unwound equity swaps.

In calendar year 2027, we expect maintained financial leverage at 2x while deploying additional capital returns and potential for small-scale M&A. With this, let me hand it over to Sue to conclude.

Steve Powers
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Thank you to Sue, Laurent, and Coty for the presentation. We're going to go right to the breakout next door. Thanks to Coty also for lunch again and for the gift bags. Thank you.

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