Earnings Call: Q1 2023

Nov 8, 2022

Good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. This is Olga Levinzon, Coty's Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you for joining us today for the prepared remarks portion of Coty's first quarter fiscal 2023 earnings. Later this morning, at approximately 8:15 A.M. Eastern, we will hold a separate live Q&A session on today's results, which you can access via our investor relations website. Joining me this morning for our presentation are Sue Nabi, Coty's CEO, and Laurent Mercier, Coty's CFO. Before I hand the call over to Sue, I would like to remind you that many of the comments today may contain forward-looking statements. Please refer to Coty's earnings release and the reports filed with the SEC, where the company lists factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements. In addition, except where noted, the discussion of Coty's financial results and Coty's expectations reflect certain adjustments as specified in the non-GAAP financial measures section of the company's release. Thank you. I will now turn it over to our CEO, Sue Nabi. Ladies and gentlemen, the Q1 results that we have reported this morning once again reaffirm the strength and resilience of Coty's brands, teams, strategy, and operating model. In the midst of a complex and dynamic external environment, Coty has delivered the ninth consecutive quarter of results in line to ahead of expectations. At the same time, dynamics of the beauty market, in which we are a key player, remain largely unchanged since our last earnings. Beauty as a category remains resilient at the sweet spot of being a staple in consumers' beauty routines and a category of offer, where the innovative products and communications we bring to market directly drive demand. Coty has certainly benefited from a beauty category that has remained resilient, particularly from what we refer to as the fragrance index, as consumers turn to mood-boosting and affordable luxury of fragrances. At the same time, we are particularly pleased that our balanced growth strategy remains in full force. We delivered like-for-like growth across each of our regions, each of our key categories, including fragrances, cosmetics, skincare, and body care, and across both divisions. This has allowed us to again report sales growth well above the underlying beauty market and among the best in our competitive set. As a result, even in the midst of this macro uncertainty, we continue to target growing our sales ahead of the beauty market, growing our profit ahead of sales, and steadily deleveraging our balance sheet, positioning Coty to become a true beauty powerhouse. There are several key points from our results that I would like to highlight today. First, fueled by the strong beauty demand and key brand initiatives, we once again delivered revenue growth ahead of expectations and ahead of guidance. Our Q1 like-for-like revenues grew 9% despite a 200 basis point negative impact from our Russia business exit. Adjusting for Russia, our core business grew 11% like for like, ahead of our raised guidance of 8%-9% like for like. Second, we delivered another quarter of strong growth, margin growth, strong profit expansion, and net debt reduction. Despite the various inflationary headwinds, our Q1 adjusted gross margins increased 70 basis points year-on-year. As a result, Q1 adjusted operating income grew 24% year-on-year. Our net debt declined to $4.2 billion, and our net leverage ended at below 4.5x, putting us well on track to drive leverage towards 4x exiting calendar 2022 and towards 3x exiting calendar 2023. Third, we continue to execute and make progress across each of our six strategic growth pillars. In fact, we have a number of ESG milestones to share with you today and more to come in the coming days. Finally, the strong delivery in Q1 reinforces our confidence in our fiscal 2023 guidance. We continue to see the fiscal 2023 growth trajectory developing in line with our medium-term targets, with the core business adjusting for the impact of the Russia exit, growing sales 6%-8% like-for-like, and an overall adjusted EBITDA of approximately $955 million-$965 million based on current Forex rates. While demand signals across most markets remains robust, we remain vigilant in monitoring the external environment and have in place the necessary resilience plans to react should the demand backdrop weaken. In the meantime, we will continue to execute with discipline, premiumizing our portfolio, driving our balanced growth agenda, reinvesting behind our key brands and capabilities, and advancing our profitability and deleveraging agenda. I will now take a few moments to cover our revenue trend during the quarter before Laurent takes you through our financials. Then I will finish with an update on our strategic progress and our outlook. Starting now with our revenue and sell-out performance. This quarter, we saw diverging trends between sell-in and sell-out due to a number of factors at play in our like-for-like revenue growth. From a sell-out perspective, which truly reflects consumer demand, our prestige business continued to outperform, fueled by the strong demand for prestige fragrances and the continued consumer desire for more premium beauty products. As a result, our prestige sell-out grew in the low teens, while consumer beauty sell-out also remained solid with mid- to high-single-digit growth. However, these growth trends were reversed at the revenue level. Key revenues grew 7% like-for-like, well below the sell-out as this sell-in growth was impacted by one, 300 basis points of headwinds from the Russia exit. Two, industry-wide shortages in certain fragrance components, which Laurent will discuss in more detail. Three, difficult comparisons in the prior year, where our prestige business reported 34% like-for-like growth on the back of strong launch pipeline fill. Consumer beauty revenues grew 12% like-for-like, surpassing the sell-out and with no material impact from the Russia exit. While revenue growth in our cosmetics and mass fragrance businesses was broadly in line to ahead of sellout, the consumer beauty sales performance was boosted by a strong launch pipeline and brand initiatives in our body care businesses, including adidas Active Skin & Mind, premium and sustainable new body care range, Monange silicone-free deodorant and Botano clinical range in Brazil. As a result, our overall like-for-like revenue growth was broadly in line with our total sellout. Geographically, I'm very pleased to say that the like-for-like revenues grew in all regions. Revenues in the Americas grew 5% like-for-like, as we saw strong momentum in Brazil and Latin America, while the continued strength in U.S. consumer demand was counterbalanced by supply constraints, particularly in prestige fragrances. EMEA region sales grew 11% like-for-like, fueled by significant travel retail momentum and double-digit growth across most markets. Asia Pacific revenues grew 12% like-for-like, with strong momentum in Asia, excluding China and travel retail, while China returned to growth despite the intermittent lockdowns. I will now hand the call over to Laurent Mercier to take you through our financial results. Thank you, Sue. As many of you know, the external environment during Q1 became increasingly complex with highly volatile Forex rates and further uncertainty regarding the future interest rate environment globally. Despite the dynamic backdrop, I am pleased to share our results as we continue to show solid progress across key financial KPIs, including gross margin, profit and deleveraging. The virtuous cycle is fully in motion and delivering the results we set out to achieve. I am also very encouraged by the interactions and engagement we have had with many of you in the investment community during the quarter. The progress we have made is increasingly being recognized, particularly as long-only institutions now account for a significant majority of Coty's public ownership, and there is a heightened awareness of Coty being an attractive and sustainable investment. Let's start with our gross margin performance in the quarter. Q1 adjusted gross margin of 64.1% increased 70 basis points from last year. Gross margin performance in the quarter was driven primarily by strong price improvement in both prestige and consumer beauty, as well as improvements in trade spend. While we see mix as one of the positive building blocks in our gross margin expansion going forward, this quarter, the mix benefit was limited based on the growth dynamics in both divisions and the outsized contribution from body care, which Sue alluded to earlier. The positive drivers more than offset the heightened level of COGS inflation, which were approximately 200 basis points of revenues, similar to what we experienced in Q4. Given the significant volatility in Forex rates more recently, and particularly the euro and pound, I want to briefly discuss the natural hedge in our business model. The deterioration in both of these currencies has had a material impact on our reported sales with a 7% negative Forex impact at the top line. However, the majority of our manufacturing and sourcing takes place in Europe, including some in the UK. This creates some natural hedge in our business, limiting the Forex exposure on our gross margin. Going forward, we will continue to execute on our multi-pronged, multi-year gross margin attack plan, and we remain well-positioned to benefit from positive mix shifts in the business. Now let's touch on the global supply and inflationary backdrop and how we are navigating through this challenging environment. As Sue alluded to earlier, global supply chain complexities coupled with ongoing robust demand for fragrance, which was not fully anticipated by the supply chain, is driving industry-wide supplying constraints in key fragrance components. Several of our peers have discussed the shortages in key components like glass bottles and to a lesser extent, caps and pumps. As a result, with fragrance volumes ramping up seasonally in Q1, our service levels remain in the low 90s for consumer beauty, but slipped below 80% for prestige. The feedback we have received from our retailers suggests that our peer set is experiencing similar dynamics. With seasonally stronger fragrance demand in Q2, we are getting similar constraints for this coming quarter. The issue ultimately traces back to the general elevated lead times and raw material constraints across the global supply chain, which is impacting the supply to our own suppliers and exacerbated by a fragrance market which shows no sign of slowing, which has depleted the safety stock in the supply chain. As a company, we are preparing ourselves for this economy of scarcity, building crucial inventory when available and shifting support behind lines where stock is available. Ultimately, this supply-demand imbalance is a good problem to have in the current environment and only reinforces our pricing power as we look to take an additional round of mid-single digit pricing in late winter, following the mid-single digit pricing we executed this past quarter. It is also important to stress that despite these component constraints, we delivered Q1 revenues ahead of guidance and strong gross margin expansion in the quarter. We are also cognizant of investor concerns about energy supply in Europe and our manufacturing base there. Here, we have developed business continuity plans and dual sourcing initiatives to protect our inputs. At the same time, due to the low energy usage in our manufacturing plants, we see limited risk of an energy-related business disruption. Finally, on inflation, our gross margin outlook remains unchanged as we continue to estimate COGS inflation of approximately 2% of revenues in fiscal 2023 to be offset by pricing, mix benefits and savings. Let me now provide an update on our All In to Win program. In Q1, we delivered savings of over $20 million, driven by a combination of fixed costs and gross margin initiatives. Based on the clear stream of projects ramping up over the course of the year, we continue to expect fiscal 2023 savings of $170 million. The projects that we expect to ramp up and contribute more significantly in Q2 through Q4 include material value analysis as we continue to streamline sourcing and variability in non-value-added components, optimization in trade spend and A&CP, improvement in excess and obsolescence charges as we continue to improve our forecasting and planning processes. Now moving to a recap of our marketing investments. During Q1, A&CP investments represented over 24% of sales, which is down slightly from last year. Importantly, our working media at constant currency grew year-on-year and was relatively stable as a percentage of sales. We targeted our media investments behind our most recent and successful innovations, including the new Burberry Hero EDP, Gucci Flora Gorgeous Jasmine, Hugo Boss Bottled Parfum in prestige, as well as COVERGIRL's Simply Ageless innovation bundle, and Rimmel's Thrill Seeker Mascara in consumer beauty. We also continued investment behind our white space areas of prestige makeup and skincare. Now with Q2 underway, we expect a meaningful ramp-up in our A&CP spending during this critical sellout period. For the fiscal 2023, we continue to expect our A&CP investments to be in the high twenties level of sales. Now moving to our profit delivery for the quarter. Our Q1 adjusted operating income grew a robust 24% to $250 million, driving a 340 basis point improvement in our adjusted operating margin to 18%. Importantly, both divisions delivered over 300 basis points of operating margin improvement. On adjusted EBITDA, we delivered 11% growth to $308 million. As a result, our adjusted EBITDA margin was 22.2% or up 190 basis points versus last year. Our profit improvement in the quarter was driven by our solid revenue growth, gross margin expansion, fixed cost leverage, as well as a slight decline in A&CP. Now moving to our adjusted EPS, which includes the following drivers: adjusted EBITDA in Q1 of $308 million, depreciation of $58 million. Net interest of $66 million. Income tax of $44 million, representing an adjusted effective tax rate of 29.6%, and diluted share count of 859 million. As a result, our Q1 diluted adjusted EPS was $0.11, an improvement of 3 cents versus last year. It is important to highlight that this adjusted EPS of $0.11 included a negative impact of 4 cents from the equity swap. Recall, we previously entered into a total return swap transaction with several bank counterparties, effectively locking in an attractive share price below $7.50 for a targeted $200 million share buyback program during calendar 2024. Beginning in Q1, the non-cash mechanical mark-to-market on this total return swap has to be included in our adjusted net income and EPS calculation flowing into the other income line. This mark-to-market EPS impact will continue to factor into our net income and EPS calculations moving forward. Looking ahead to Q2 and fiscal 2023, let me provide some additional details related to our current expectations for certain drivers of our adjusted EPS. First, we continue to expect depreciation to be in the mid-$200 million. Second, we continue to expect net interest for the year to also be in the mid-$200 million, reflecting the fact that the majority of our debt is fixed, and we have hedging in place on most of the remainder. Third, we continue to expect an adjusted effective tax rate for fiscal 2023 in the high 20s%, assuming no significant changes in tax regulation. Finally, on fiscal 2023 share count, based on the GAAP accounting provision around anti-dilution, we now expect diluted shares consistent with Q1 at 860 million-870 million. Moving to our free cash flow. We generated $88 million of free cash flow in the quarter, consistent with our expectations. The quarterly results reflected the timing of certain CapEx and working capital payments, as well as the increase in inventory as we build stock in certain components as part of our efforts to mitigate the global component shortages we discussed earlier. For the full year, we continue to expect strong free cash flow generation, though, as we indicated on the last call, we would expect the cash flow to be a little lower than fiscal 2022 due to one-time working capital benefits which helped fiscal 2022 and won't repeat in fiscal 2023. Our intent is to continue to use our strong free cash flow to steadily reduce our debt and advance our deleveraging agenda. Moving to our capital structure. We ended Q1 with net debt of just under $4.2 billion, an improvement of roughly $100 million from Q4, driven by our free cash flow. As a result, our leverage at the end of the quarter was below 4.5x, down from 4.7x at the end of Q4. With Q2 as our seasonally strongest free cash flow quarter, we remain fully on track to bring our leverage down towards 4x by the end of calendar 2022. In the quarter, the book value of our 26% stake in Wella increased to approximately $1 billion, reflecting Wella's acquisition of a high-growth haircare brand. Factoring in our Wella stake, we ended the quarter with economic net debt of approximately $3.2 billion. I would also like to take a minute to address the rising and seemingly uncertain interest rate environment and Coty's sensitivity to this. Approximately two-thirds of our debt is fixed rate notes, and for the remaining variable debt, we have hedging in place, such as 90% of our debt is fixed, supporting our unchanged expectation for fiscal 2023 interest expense in the mid-$200 million. Looking beyond fiscal 2023, our strong continued progress on deleveraging and debt paydown support our expectation for our interest expense to steadily decline in the coming years despite the rising interest rate environment. I will now hand it back to Sue to review our strategic progress in the quarter. Thank you, Laurent. As we have continued to update you quarter after quarter, in Q1, we made further progress on our six strategic pillars. Starting with our first strategic pillar, stabilizing and growing our consumer beauty business. Over the past quarter, the global mass beauty market grew in the low single digits year-over-year, broadly in line with historical trends. Against this backdrop, our successful repositioning of many of our key brands has allowed us to continue to outperform the market with Coty's sell-out growing in the mid to high single digits. In total, this marks the tenth consecutive month of market share gains for our consumer beauty business, both in color cosmetics and overall mass beauty. Our goal is to continue to drive market share momentum even as we start lapping some of these improvements. We've seen particularly strong market share momentum globally in Max Factor and Rimmel. In fact, for Rimmel, the recent TikTok-driven launch of its Thrill Seeker Mascara, whose ad campaign you can see here, has quickly become the number two mascara in the UK market based on the latest market data, and even more impressively, the biggest mascara launch ever for the Rimmel brand. While our deliberately sequenced relaunch calendar for our consumer beauty brands began with our cosmetic brands, we have now begun the relaunch of our top five consumer beauty brand, adidas. In keeping with the fashion brand's focus on uniting premium athletics and sustainability, and Coty's focus on leading the skinification trend, we've launched the new premium body care range for adidas called Active Skin & Mind. This skinified body care range includes clean and vegan formulations packed in bottles that are 100% recycled, recyclable and refillable, representing a true leap forward in our sustainability agenda. Also part of our body care portfolio, our leading Brazilian brand, Monange, has also brought market-leading innovation. During Q1, Monange launched the first-to-market patent-pending non-silicone deodorant, which is already seeing great success in the market. Our second key Brazilian body care brand, Boticário, was also fueling momentum with the launch of a long-lasting clinical deodorant line. As a result of these strong brand launches and supporting media activations, our overall body care like-for-like sales in Q1 grew over 25%. While our body care business, including these premium launches, carry gross margins below the corporate average, we are very pleased with both the revenue growth and strong profit contribution that this business is bringing, particularly as we continue to invest behind key strategic initiatives such as skincare. Let's take a look now at the new brand campaign for adidas. Turning now to our second pillar, focused on accelerating our luxury booming fragrance business. What is quite clear is that the global prestige fragrance market continues to boom as we continue to see the fragrance index in full effect. After lapping growth of over 20% in fiscal 2022, and even as the macro backdrop remains difficult, the market data confirms that demand for prestige fragrances continues to grow in the high single digits. This represents over 25% growth versus 2019, and in markets like the U.S., the prestige fragrance market is over 40% higher than pre-COVID levels, supported by the structural drivers that we've been discussing for some time, including increased usage by Gen Z, men and Hispanic consumers, further underpinned by social media. It's also worth highlighting that the latest market data we have shows no slowing in the premiumization trend in fragrances, with the higher priced and higher concentration fragrances continuing to increase their penetration across all major fragrance markets. These dynamics manifested in our results as well, as we saw close to 10% price mix growth in our prestige fragrance sales, with volumes growing when adjusted for the Russia exits. Against this very favorable backdrop, we are continuing to fuel our market-leading innovation by building on last year's successes with innovative and brand-building extensions. The launch of BOSS Bottled Parfum, while still in limited distribution, is off to a great start, driving double-digit like-for-like growth for the iconic BOSS Bottled franchise. On Burberry, with last year's Burberry Hero Eau de Toilette launch becoming a top 5 male fragrance launch across all major markets, this year we've launched the more premium Burberry Hero Eau de Parfum. The halo effect has pushed the Burberry Hero franchise to become top 10 in the U.S. and propelled Burberry fragrances to the highest market share in their core U.K. market. On Gucci, last year's disruptive launch of Gucci Flora Gorgeous Gardenia ranked as the number 1 or number 2 best female launch in key markets. We have built on this success with this year's launch of Gucci Flora Gorgeous Jasmine, which has propelled the Gucci Flora franchise to top 10 across North America and Europe, surpassing the iconic Chanel N°5. Meanwhile, Chloé's continued success with its ultra-premium Atelier des Fleurs collections has allowed the collection to become the number one artisanal fragrance in China, Sephora, and our number one fragrance brand in travel retail APAC. All of this reaffirms our view that Coty remains the leader in building strong and long-lasting fragrance brands and high growth and high-margin fragrance business with a very balanced portfolio of distinctive brands. Of course, this unprecedented robust fragrance demand growth, coupled with complications in the global supply chain, has resulted in industry-wide fragrance component shortages, which Laurent discussed in detail, and this remains the key inhibitor to growth in the short term. At the same time, with demand outstripping supply, this only reinforces our view of the fragrance index, which is part of the larger well-being index, where even in difficult economic circumstances, consumers will continue to look for the mood-boosting, affordable luxury offered by prestige fragrances. Let's take a look at the new BOSS campaign, which perfectly aligns with the new brand story and aesthetic of the fashion house. Be your own boss. On prestige cosmetics, while the overall business trends for Gucci and Burberry cosmetics were pressured by the intermittent lockdowns in China, we continued our strategic focus and expansion of this business. In the US, our prestige makeup sellout grew at double the pace of the underlying prestige cosmetics market. In the critical travel retail APAC corridor, our prestige cosmetics business has now roughly reached half of our sales, again confirming the desirability of our brands and the right to win in prestige cosmetics. On Kylie, even as the brand lapsed the difficult comparisons of prior years brand relaunch, the brand continues to resonate with Gen Z shoppers worldwide. As we've continued to open new travel retail locations for Kylie Beauty, whether in Europe, Israel or Latin America, the Kylie brand continues to rank among top beauty brands across key travel retail corridors. Switching now to our third strategic pillar, building our skincare business across both divisions. As we shared during our skincare strategic update in an investor event in September, growing our skincare business is a key strategic objective for us in the coming years, led by our prestige brands. With Lancaster as a critical building block in this targeted growth, it's very encouraging that Lancaster's sales grew over 20% in the quarter. This growth was fueled by strong momentum in Hainan, even in the midst of periodic closures there, illustrating that with the right brand activations, storytelling, and product trial, Lancaster can win with Chinese consumers. Based on the learnings we have accumulated in recent months, we have now the playbook for our ultra-premium Lancaster product launch and brand activations in China, which remain on track for the second half of this fiscal. On SKKN by Kim, following the strong launch at the end of June, we are continuing to build the skincare brand online following an awareness on DTC. It's worth highlighting that the 9-piece set, priced at over $500, still remains the top-selling item. Finally, while our skincare build strategy is anchored on our prestige brands, I'm pleased to share that our pure-play mass skin and body care brands are also seeing strong momentum. Both Paixão and Monange gained 260 basis points of share in the very competitive Brazilian lotions and oils market, growing their household penetration by 2.2 million households. Look out for more brand initiatives and momentum on our skincare and body care business in the coming quarters, and of course, years. Moving now to our fourth strategic pillar, digital and e-com. Overall, e-commerce sales grew modestly year-over-year, weighted down by lockdown-related weakness in key Chinese e-com platforms. At the same time, we have continued to fuel our digital momentum across key areas such as social commerce, e-retail, and new partnerships. Let me now share some of the highlights from the quarter. On the social commerce side, our recent launch of Marc Jacobs Daisy Ever So Fresh went viral after two organic mentions by TikTok influencer Mikayla Nogueira. The result was truly remarkable, with the fragrance selling out at Sephora within two weeks. We also expanded our e-com partnership by opening two new flagship stores on LazMall Prestige, first for Chloé, which show very promising early results, and then for Hugo Boss. This e-commerce platform, a part of Alibaba Group, is the largest online shopping platform in Southeast Asia and brings our brands to over 90 million consumers in the region. Finally, on Amazon, we continue to partner with this critical pure-play e-retailer across key markets. This has yielded clear results with our global Amazon sales up 50% year-on-year during Amazon Prime week. We are continuing our collaboration as we've recently signed a global media deal with Amazon, which will unlock more data for us to leverage, more support from the retailer, and more optimized media spend, which should continue to drive a higher return on investment. Switching now to China. The intermittent COVID-related lockdowns in the country during Q1 pressured category trends. At the same time, our lower base continued expansion in the market and strong launch activity behind key brands such as Burberry, Gucci, Chloé, allows us to grow sales in China, including Hainan. You can see on this slide the beautiful 3-D billboard and in-store activation we executed around the launch of Burberry Hero Eau de Parfum. Importantly, we drove our business across both our prestige and mass brands. In consumer beauty in China, both adidas and Max Factor leaned into the rapidly growing Douyin platform, with overall sales for both brands up over 30% in the quarter. In fact, this quarter, Max Factor partnered with LABELHOOD, a self-styled cultural community that discovers and promotes Chinese fashion. The resulting limited edition Facefinity compacts were a first for Max Factor, doubling the sales of the foundation with a strong over-indexing to Gen Z consumers. While we do not know when the COVID-related restrictions in China will be lifted on a sustainable basis, our view of the attractiveness of the China beauty market remains unchanged, as market data continues to show that the ultra-premium beauty categories are still the fastest growing ones. As such, while we benefit in short term from the geographic diversification of our business model, we continue to target strong expansion in our China sales in the coming years. Similarly, on our travel retail business, the momentum continues to build. Even as international passenger traffic has continued to recover and grow, it still remains 20%-30% below 2019 levels. At the same time, beauty demand in travel retail remains much stronger and largely on par with 2019. In this favorable backdrop, Coty is gaining share in this highly profitable channel, fueled by our multi-category approach, channel exclusives and disruptive activations. In Q1, our travel retail sales grew over 30% year-on-year. You can see on this slide some of our beautiful fragrance displays in travel retail. Specific to Hainan, it's worth noting that Lancaster sales grew over 5 times year-over-year. With the consumer appetite for travel post the pandemic showing no signs of easing, we continue to be optimistic about the prospects for this channel. Finally, moving to our sixth strategic pillar, becoming a leader in sustainability. I am incredibly pleased that Coty's continued improvement in its ESG transformation, disclosures, and policy setting have been recognized by Sustainalytics. The leading rating agency recently raised our ESG rating, putting Coty in the top quartile of personal product companies. Our progress does not end there, with a major milestone in our social agenda, with the recent announcement of Coty's market-leading gender-neutral global parental leave policy. This enables all employees, regardless of gender, to have access to the same number of fully paid weeks of parental leave when starting or extending a family, whether through pregnancy, adoption, or surrogacy. We also have more updates to come on our environmental agenda in the coming days. We are therefore excited by Coty's ESG progress to date and of course, journey ahead. That brings me to our outlook for the remainder of the year. While the broader microeconomic picture has worsened in recent months in certain markets, I want to emphasize that demand in our categories across key markets remains robust. We see no signs of slowing demand or trade-down for prestige fragrances, including in the U.S., U.K., Germany, and travel retail. We also continue to see solid demand in mass beauty across our categories. In fact, as we've mentioned, the main constraints to our sales growth near term remain the global component constraints, primarily in fragrances and to a lesser extent, the continued COVID policy overhangs in China. As such, we continue to expect the first half of 2023 like-for-like sales growth of our core business, adjusting for the impact of the Russia exit, in line with our medium-term algorithm and previous outlook for 6%-8% growth. The net impact of our Russia exit is expected to negatively impact Q2 sales by roughly 3%. Based on current rates, we expect Forex headwinds to sales in Q2 of 7%-9%, with a more moderate impact on profit based on the natural hedging embedded in our model. We continue to expect modest growth margin expansion in Q2, and we continue to target leverage moving towards 4x existing calendar 2022 based on calendar 2022 adjusted EBITDA approaching $960 million. For total fiscal 2023, assuming no significant deterioration in the macro or COVID environment, we continue to expect like-for-like growth of the core business, adjusting for the impact of the Russia exit in line with our medium-term growth target of 6%-8%. We expect impact from the Russia exit to be approximately 2% in fiscal 2023, with a Forex headwind on fiscal 2023 revenues of 6%-8%. We continue to expect modest gross margin expansion in fiscal 2023, with positive mix, savings, and pricing offsetting inflationary pressure. As a result, and assuming no significant macro deterioration. We continue to target fiscal 2023 adjusted EBITDA of $955 million-$965 million based on current Forex rates, relatively in line with our medium-term growth target of +9%-11%, adjusting for the impact of the Russia exit. We continue to expect fiscal 2023 adjusted EPS growth in the mid-teens to $0.32-$0.33, which excludes any mark-to-market adjustments on the equity swap. We also continue to anticipate adjusted EPS growth acceleration in fiscal 2024 and beyond, fueled by lower interest expenses as part of our deleveraging efforts, consistent with the medium-term targets we laid out at our Investor Day. We continue to target further reduction in leverage to three times exiting calendar 2023 and two times exiting calendar 2025. To conclude now, I'm very pleased to report our ninth consecutive quarter of results in line to ahead of expectations despite the increasingly complex external environment. Our continued effort to premiumize our portfolio in both divisions, our disciplined pricing implementation, and continued cost control are all positioning Coty for success in both the short and long term. This is reinforced further by our strengthened culture, as we have recently launched internally and externally the new Coty purpose, vision, and values, which center on fearlessness and a forward-thinking mindset. With demand in our markets and categories remaining strong and a great start to this year with our Q1 results, this reinforces our confidence in our fiscal 2023 outlook to be in line with our medium-term algorithm. At the same time, we remain vigilant in monitoring the ever-evolving macro backdrop with resilience plans developed to support the business should conditions worsen. We remain very excited about what's in store for Coty in the coming years and look forward to updating you on our continued progress. We are ready now to take your questions. Thank you.