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Earnings Call: Q4 2023

Aug 22, 2023

Olga Levinzon
SVP of Investor Relations, Coty

Good morning, and good afternoon, everyone. This is Olga Levinzon, Coty's Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you for joining us today for the prepared remarks portion of Coty's fourth quarter fiscal 2023 earnings. Later this morning, at approximately 8:15 A.M. Eastern Time, we will hold a separate live Q&A session on today's results, which you can access via our investor relations website. Joining me this morning for our presentation are Sue Nabi, Coty's CEO, and Laurent Mercier, Coty's CFO. Before I hand the call over to Sue, I would like to remind you that many of the comments today may contain forward-looking statements. Please refer to Coty's earnings release and the reports filed with the SEC, where the company lists factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements.

Except where noted, the discussion of Coty's financial results and Coty's expectations reflect certain adjustments as specified in the non-GAAP financial measures section of the company's release. Thank you. I will now turn it over to our CEO, Sue Nabi.

Sue Nabi
CEO, Coty

Thank you, Olga. Welcome, everyone. I'm very happy to share that today's fiscal 2023 results mark the third consecutive year of Coty delivering strong financial, operational, and strategic performance. This is also the 12th consecutive quarter of the company reporting results in line to ahead of expectations. These accomplishments are the result of the focus and agility across the full Coty organization as we continue to amplify our strengths, adjust to evolving market conditions, and capture new opportunities. In fact, our Q4 and fiscal 2023 results are again amongst the best in our competitive set, speaking to the power of the Coty business. Looking externally, beauty demand remains resilient across our key categories and geographies in the midst of the current macroeconomic uncertainty, with no signs of trade-down, while the famous Fragrance Index we've been discussing for over a year shows no signs of slowing.

In fact, the beauty category continues to be a standout in key markets like the U.S., as the only category to grow volumes in the last six months amongst all CPG and general merchandise categories, speaking to the beauty industry's ability to meet consumers' emotional needs. This fully reaffirms the message that we have been conveying for some time, that Coty and our peers have a key role to play in fueling consumer excitement and generating consumer demand by launching innovative and desirable products, supported by meaningful storytelling, as well as clean and sustainable formulations and packages. As a result, we continue to target growing our sales ahead of the beauty market, growing our profit ahead of sales, steadily leveraging our balance sheet, and positioning Coty to continue to succeed as a beauty powerhouse with still significant untapped potential. Let me now summarize the key messages from our results.

First, we once again delivered revenue growth ahead of both expectations and raised guidance, fueled by the strong beauty demand and successful key brand initiatives in both divisions. Our Q4 like-for-like revenues grew 17%, ahead of our updated guidance of 12%-15% and outlook at the start of the quarter of 10%. We saw particularly strong sales momentum in Prestige, coupled with double-digit growth in Consumer Beauty. Our full year revenues grew 12% on a core like-for-like basis, with double-digit growth in both divisions, marking the second consecutive year of double-digit growth for the company. Second, our fiscal 2023 profits were ahead of guidance, with adjusted operating income growing 20% year on year and adjusted EBITDA growing 7%, despite strong investments in our business and significant Forex headwinds of over $70 million for the year.

Third, we continued to execute and make progress across our strategic growth pillars. Finally, our fiscal 2024 outlook is in line to ahead of our medium-term growth algorithm, as we are targeting like-for-like growth at the top end of our medium-term 6%-8% range, moderate growth and EBITDA margin expansion, and double-digit growth in our adjusted EPS. I will now take a few moments to cover our revenue trends during the quarter before Laurent takes you through our financials. I will finish with an update on our strategic progress and, of course, our outlook. Starting now with our revenue performance. As you can see, our Q4 like-for-like revenues grew 17%, well ahead of raised guidance.

This brings our fiscal year-to-date core like-for-like revenue growth to 12%, well ahead of our original 6%-8% like-for-like growth guidance, and the second consecutive year of double-digit like-for-like growth for the company. In Q4, our core Prestige business grew 21% like-for-like, resulting in 13% core like-for-like growth in fiscal 2023. The strong sales growth acceleration in Q4 reflected double-digit growth across Americas, EMEA, and the travel retail channel, and 2 points of benefit from the China low comparison last year. We are continuing to see robust fragrance demand across all key markets. At the same time, retailer inventories at the end of Q4 are at healthy levels, particularly as we are now entering the stronger seasonal demand period. In Consumer Beauty, core revenues grew 10% like-for-like, bringing fiscal 2023 core like-for-like growth to 11%.

Our Q4 Consumer Beauty growth came from solid growth in color cosmetics and continued strong momentum in our Brazilian brands. Geographically speaking, like-for-like revenues continued to grow in all regions for the quarter and for the year. Americas revenues grew 13% like-for-like in Q4, and 10% in fiscal 2023, with double-digit growth in nearly every market and in regional travel retail. EMEA core like-for-like sales grew 13% in both Q4 and fiscal 2023. We saw double-digit growth across most markets and in travel retail. Asia Pacific revenues grew 40% like-for-like in Q4, and 13% in fiscal 2023, with a robust rebound in China and Hainan, particularly given the depressed base period comparison, as well as strong momentum in broader Asia and local travel retail. A critical part of our strategy is our unwavering focus on driving balanced growth.

Growth in Q4 and fiscal 2023 was once again supported by volumes, price, and mix. In Q4, we saw low single-digit core volume growth and mid-teens expansions from the combination of price and mix. For fiscal 2023, core volumes also grew in the low single digits, while price and mix grew approximately 10%. Our intent in the coming quarters and years is to continue to drive a balanced agenda with our top line growth, supported by a combination of volumes, pricing, and mix. I will now hand the call over to Laurent to take you through our financial results.

Laurent Mercier
CFO, Coty

Thank you, Sue. I am pleased to say that we continue to deliver strong financial performance with the Q4 results marking the 12th consecutive quarter of results in line to ahead of expectations. Let's start with an update on how we are navigating the complexities of global supply and inflation. Building on the strong progress made last quarter in improving our Prestige service levels through expanded dual sourcing, detailed supply and demand planning, and building of safety stocks, we again improved in Q4, reaching a mid-90s service level exiting the quarter. We are confident that we will be able to meet fiscal 2024 demand, including during the peak holiday period. Turning to the inflationary backdrop, in the fourth quarter, COGS inflation was approximately 2.1% of sales. For the full year, COGS inflation was approximately 2% of revenues.

Looking to fiscal year 2024, while cost inflation on certain commodities, such as paper and energy, are easing, costs on other materials and components are still growing, in large part due to labor. In the first half of fiscal year 2024, we continue to expect COGS inflation to remain elevated, driven by the combination of delayed inflation impact based on our procurement negotiations with suppliers, as well as the capitalization of the higher costs we incurred in recent months, which gets released to the PNL roughly 4 months later. As these two factors are more timing related and the underlying inflation drivers are clearly easing, we expect a significant moderation in COGS inflation in the second half of fiscal year 2024. Our execution on savings, strategic revenue management, and pricing is helping us to balance this inflationary impact.

We are currently in the process of another round of pricing in the first quarter of fiscal 2024 as we continue our portfolio transition to cleaner and more sustainable products, which in turn also drives category value growth, while also closing pricing gaps versus our competition, particularly in Consumer Beauty. I will now provide an update on our All-in to Win program. In Q4, we delivered savings of approximately $50 million, bringing our fiscal year 2023 savings to approximately $180 million, ahead of our target of approximately $170 million in fiscal year 2023. Due to our strong project pipeline, we are increasing our fiscal year 2024 savings estimate to over $100 million, up from our previous target of approximately $90 million. Savings in fiscal year 2024 will be driven by Material Value Analysis, platforming savings, and structural ANCP savings, amongst other projects.

We continue to target $75 million of savings in fiscal year 2025, reaffirming the savings targets announced in Q2. In sum, having delivered over $600 million of savings live to date, we continue to optimize all of our processes and expenditures, thereby positioning Coty to be both flexible and fully equipped to invest in our strategic priorities. Importantly, we are now in Phase II of our transformation as we put in place more enablers for sustainable growth and business acceleration across the brands and markets, supplementing our savings initiatives, which fuel profit expansion and reinvestment. Moving to our gross margin performance.

Q4 Adjusted Gross Margin of 62.8% increased by 70 basis points from last year, bringing the year-to-date Adjusted Gross Margin to 63.9%, which is up 20 basis points year-on-year and up by a very significant 390 basis points versus 2 years ago. Our Q4 gross margin increase was driven by supply chain productivity, the positive benefits from mix, and additional price increase executed at the end of Q3. These benefits to gross margin were partially offset by COGS inflation of approximately 210 basis points of sales in Q4. Despite the inflation that was prevalent this year, we delivered gross margin expansion in both Q4 and fiscal year 2023. Going forward, we will continue executing on our multi-pronged, multi-year gross margin attack plan as we drive our gross margins to the mid-sixties and beyond.

I'd like to take a moment to discuss our investments in research and development. As we have transformed our business over the last three years, steadily executing on our six-pillar strategy, we have been steadily reinvesting in our organizational capabilities, including R&D. In fact, our R&D investment is close to 10% higher than it was two years ago, with investments behind skincare growing substantially above these levels. We expect to step change our R&D investments in the coming years, particularly behind skincare, as we pursue our ambition to double our skincare revenues in the next few years and position skincare as a key pillar of Coty's business model. Let me now walk you through our marketing investment. In Q4, ANCP investment represented approximately 28% of sales, stable with Q3 levels and with the prior year, as we continue to support our key initiatives.

This brings the fiscal year 2023 ANCP level to approximately 27%, in line with our expectations and relatively stable year-over-year. As with prior quarters, our marketing spend was concentrated behind key innovations in Prestige and Consumer Beauty, as well as white space opportunities. Moving to our profit delivery for the quarter. Our Q4 adjusted operating income grew 61% to $105 million, with our fiscal 2023 operating income expanding a strong 20% year-on-year. This delivery was particularly impressive given strong Forex headwinds, which negatively impacted our fiscal year 2023 adjusted EBITDA by over $70 million. The Prestige and Consumer Beauty segments delivered double-digit adjusted operating income growth in Q4 and fiscal 2023, with margin improvement in both businesses.

Our Q4 adjusted operating margin grew 220 basis points year-over-year, with fiscal year 2023 margin up strongly by 170 basis points to 13.3%. Importantly, we continue to expect strong income growth and margin expansion going forward. Our Q4 adjusted EBITDA grows 25% year-over-year to $165 million, with 7% growth in fiscal year 2023 to $973 million. Our Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin increased 90 basis points year-over-year, bringing our fiscal year 2023 adjusted EBITDA margin to 17.5%, up 40 basis points versus last year. Turning to our adjusted EPS, where we reported strong momentum in the quarter.

Our Q4 diluted adjusted EPS was $0.01, up $0.02 year-over-year, driven by a much stronger Q4 adjusted operating income, partially offset by higher tax and interest expense. Specifically, the Q4 interest expense stepped up sequentially versus Q3, driven by a higher cost of debt in the rising interest rate environment, as well as a $5 million increase in Forex costs. There was no material net impact from the mark-to-market on the equity swap in the quarter. Our fiscal year 2023 diluted adjusted EPS was $0.53, up 89% year-over-year, and includes a non-cash EPS benefit of $0.15 from the mark-to-market on the equity swap in the second and third quarters. Our fiscal year 2023 operational EPS, excluding the swap, was $0.48, driven by net profit improvement, which reflects very substantial growth of 36% versus last year.

Looking ahead to fiscal year 2024, I would like to provide some additional details related to our current expectations for certain drivers of our adjusted EPS. First, we expect depreciation to be in the $230 million-$240 million range. Second, we anticipate net interest expense for the year to be in the mid-$200 million. Third, we anticipate an adjusted effective tax rate for fiscal 2024 in the mid-to-high 20s. Finally, on fiscal 2024 share count, we currently estimate 1% of dilution, both similar to fiscal 2023. Quarterly share count will fluctuate based on GAAP anti-dilution provisions. Moving to our free cash flow. We generated free cash flow of $38 million in the quarter.

For the year, we generated $403 million of free cash flow, which was in line with our expectations, despite the inventory build required to increase safety stock and meet anticipated fragrance demand in the first half of fiscal year 2024. In the coming years, we expect steady expansion in free cash flows. Our intent is to continue to use our strong free cash flow and opportunistic asset monetization to actively reduce our debt and advance our deleveraging agenda. Moving to our capital structure. We ended Q4 with net debt of approximately $4 billion. Our leverage at the end of the quarter was around 4.1x, down from around 4.4x at the end of Q3, and consistent with our expectations. Factoring in our Wella stake, we ended the quarter with economic net debt of approximately $3 billion.

We remain committed to divesting our Wella stake by calendar 2025, and as a first step in this objective, we recently entered into a binding letter of intent to sell 3.6% of our retained Wella stake for $150 million to IGF Wealth Management, subject to customary closing conditions, including consent by KKR. The transaction will reflect a 4% premium to book value of Wella as of March 31st. Additionally, as part of our active efforts to strengthen our balance sheet, we successfully issued $750 million of 2030 senior secured notes in July. We use a combination of this proceed and our revolver to fully pay down our Term Loan B, resulting in approximately 85% of our total debt now being fixed rate, which is key in the current interest rate environment.

Looking beyond fiscal 2023, our strong continued progress on deleveraging and debt paydown support our expectation for our interest expense to steadily decline in the coming years, despite the currently rising interest rate environment. To sum up, we are confident in our next major leverage milestones as we continue to target leverage towards 3x exiting calendar 2023, approximately 2.5x exiting calendar year 2024, and approximately 2x exiting calendar year 2025. I will now hand it back to Sue to review our strategic progress in the quarter.

Sue Nabi
CEO, Coty

Thank you, Laurent. Let me now share some highlights from our continued execution on our six-pillar strategy. Starting with our first strategic pillar, which is stabilizing and growing our Consumer Beauty business. In the quarter, both the mass beauty market and our Consumer Beauty business remained very dynamic. As I mentioned earlier, our Consumer Beauty revenue grew approximately 10% like-for-like in the quarter, with high single-digit to double-digit growth across our key categories of cosmetics, body care, and mass fragrances. For fiscal 2023, Consumer Beauty grew 11% on a core like-for-like basis, with more of our leading Consumer Beauty brands growing in the high single-digits to low double-digits like-for-like during this fiscal.

The strength of our Consumer Beauty portfolio was further reinforced by our recently announced strengthened and long-standing partnership with Adidas, which is perfectly positioned to capitalize on the new well-being and athleisure trend in beauty. As a key part of our strategy to win with Gen Z consumers through clean and vegan formulations, and win with the Gen X through skinification makeup, in fiscal 2023, we leaned further into these trends across our portfolio. As you can see, we continue to lean into the rapidly growing clean beauty trend with the launches of CoverGirl's Clean Fresh Yummy Gloss, which was the number one lip launch of spring 2023, with Adidas Active Skin & Mind range, and of course, Bourjois Healthy Mix Foundation.

In parallel, we continued to be very active on skinification beauty, with the launches of Max Factor's Miracle Pure Foundation and the extension of the CoverGirl Simply Ageless line. Another area where we have also had great success is rapidly platforming key cosmetics innovations across our portfolio. The most recent example of this is our twisted mascara technology from Bourjois. We first launched it under Bourjois brand last year, driving that mascara to be the number one mascara on the French market. More recently, we have launched this technology under the Max Factor brand with the Lash Wow 2-in-1 mascara you see pictured here. Since the recent launch, Lash Wow is now the number one mascara for the brand and a top 10 mascara overall in the launch markets. This is a proof that quickly platforming distinctive-...

Superior innovation will be key to further accelerating our Consumer Beauty portfolio, and we have more plans in store in the coming quarters on other key Consumer Beauty innovations. Entering fiscal 24, we are pushing the envelope further on clean beauty, starting with CoverGirl. CoverGirl continues to be the undisputed leader of clean beauty in the U.S. mass channel. True to our leadership in clean beauty and mascara, we recently launched CoverGirl's new Lash Blast Cleantopia Mascara, which is the brand's first plant-powered clean mascara. Let's take a look at the new video campaign for Cleantopia Mascara, featuring brand ambassador, Kelsea Ballerini, which has begun airing in July.

Kelsea Ballerini
Brand Ambassador, CoverGirl

Hey, CoverGirls, there's a new world of mascara out there. Introducing the world's first plant-powered mascara called Cleantopia. 300% extreme lash volume with 100% plant fibers. Let's go to Cleantopia. New Lash Blast Cleantopia from CoverGirl.

Sue Nabi
CEO, Coty

To summarize on Consumer Beauty, having repositioned our key brands, having established meaningful and on-brand communications, and revamped the innovation pipeline for each brand, the next phase of our strategy is to fully capitalize on the Gen Z opportunity. We have continued to harness the power of social media influencers and natural advocacy as launches such as CoverGirl Clean Fresh Yummy Gloss and Rimmel Kind & Free have both gone viral on TikTok. As we enter fiscal 2024, we will further embrace the full power and reach of social media to drive our brands and build stronger community engagement, and fully keeping in step with the evolution of the market and with Gen Z habits. Turning to our second pillar, focused on accelerating our luxury fragrance business.

We continue to see the Fragrance Index in full effect and maintaining momentum, driven by strong demand for fragrance across the globe and an ongoing premiumization as consumers seek more concentrated, longer lasting, and more sophisticated scents. As we have continued to discuss, the strong demand is underpinned by increased fragrance usage by Gen Z, by men, and by Hispanic consumers, as well as by social media as a driver of brand discovery and trial. In total, the Prestige fragrance market grew over 10% in the fourth quarter and in fiscal 2023, well above the historical low to mid-single digit growth of this market. At the same time, Coty's Prestige fragrance revenue grew over 20% like-for-like in the fourth quarter, and in the low teens in fiscal 2023, outgrowing the broader market. All of Coty's top brands saw double-digit like-for-like growth in fiscal 2023.

As we enter fiscal 2024, we see no signs of slowing in fragrance demand. While we are already a leader in Prestige fragrances, we still have ample white space opportunities in this category, even within our stronghold geographies. This is anchored on two areas. First, in our core Prestige fragrance business, we have historically been the leader in the $13 billion male fragrance category, but have ample room to improve our position in the much bigger female fragrance category, which is roughly double the size of male fragrances at $24 billion, and where we are currently in the top three. Second, we are still having limited scale, but are actively strengthening our positioning in the smaller but rapidly growing $4 billion ultra premium fragrance category.

Whether it's through our Chloé Atelier des Fleurs collection, whose sales have grown by five times versus two years ago, or through the upcoming launch of our internally developed Infiniment Coty Paris fragrance brand. In order to fully capture these white space opportunities, in addition to our ambitions in Prestige skincare and Prestige cosmetics, we are continuing to strengthen the organizational structure in our Prestige business. That brings me to a key milestone in our strategic ambition to elevate our share in female fragrances, which is our newly launched Burberry Goddess eau de parfum female fragrance, which is now appearing across global distribution. Burberry Goddess is a unique gourmand premium fragrance led by a powerful trio of distinct vanillas, bottled in Burberry's first ever refillable bottle. Let's take a look at the video campaign featuring British-French actress and new ambassador for Burberry Beauty, Emma Mackey.

Emma Mackey
Ambassador, Burberry Beauty

There is a goddess in all of us, strong as a lioness. Embrace the power within. Burberry Goddess, the new fragrance.

Sue Nabi
CEO, Coty

While we are still very early in the Burberry Goddess launch, the initial results are outstanding. First, Burberry Goddess is already a top three fragrance at leading airports. Second, sell-out is one and a half to three times higher than recent Coty blockbuster launches. Third, the Burberry Goddess launch is having a strong halo effect on the men's fragrance, Burberry Hero, as well as on Burberry Her line. We are very excited about the early success of this innovation so far, which we believe positions Burberry Goddess to be a blockbuster launch this year and next year. Underpinning the strong foundation of our fragrance business is the extended duration of our license portfolio, with the average remaining duration of our top 7 Prestige brands now averaging 13 years.

The renewal and extension this past year of multiple key licenses, including Hugo Boss, Davidoff, and Jil Sander, reinforces Coty's position as a go-to partner for global fashion houses. I am particularly excited about yesterday's announcement of the expansion of our partnership with Marc Jacobs to include the creation of a new makeup line, which we intend to launch in the next few years, coupled with the extension of the license for over 15 years. I believe the Marc Jacobs brand is perfectly positioned between couture and indie, and will become a great and differentiated addition to our Prestige cosmetics portfolio. At the same time, we are continuing to expand our existing Prestige makeup businesses. In Q4, our Prestige makeup revenues grew over 25% like-for-like. Trends have been improving sequentially with the reopening of the China economy and the strong launch activations behind Burberry and behind Gucci.

As you may recall, last quarter, we launched new longwear foundations under both Burberry and Gucci in China as part of our strategy to enter the higher loyalty complexion subcategory. The Burberry Beyond Wear Perfecting Matte Foundation is inspired by the iconic fabric of Burberry's trench coat and is already ranked number five in premium long-lasting foundations on Tmall. On Kylie Cosmetics, the brand's makeup sales grew by a strong double-digit % globally in both the fourth quarter and fiscal 2023, fueled by an expanded distribution and new exciting launches. Shifting now to our third strategic pillar, which is building our skincare business. In the last few months, we have ignited our comprehensive strategy as planned, with exciting initiatives across each of our key skincare brands, Lancaster, Orveda, and Philosophy, and many more to come in the coming quarters and years.

Let me start with Lancaster, where in mid-March, we launched the ultra-premium skincare line called Ligne Princière. While the brand relaunch and Ligne Princière line have been concentrated only in China, mainland in Hainan, I'm very encouraged by the initial results with the overall Lancaster brand revenues in Q4 growing over 15% year-over-year. Since the beginning of the launch of Ligne Princière in China, store sales are growing 20%-30% month-over-month. The conversion rate at new counters in China, especially in Hainan, is exceeding leading beauty peers, with Lancaster Ligne Princière driving the majority of sales. Overall feedback on the brand and products is very positive, and importantly, repeat intent of purchasers is over 40%, which I have to say is absolutely a very proud moment for Coty scientists and the entire Coty skincare teams.

With such strong fundamentals for the brand, the focus now is on increasing consumer traffic to be fueled by mastering the Chinese digital ecosystem. In parallel with igniting of Lancaster in China, we have been executing the revamp of Philosophy in the spring across all touchpoints in the U.S. Philosophy announced the new brand formulation principle, Dermatologic Wisdom, and launched its latest product innovation, Dose of Wisdom Bouncy Skin Reactivating Serum. Dose of Wisdom sales are ahead of our targets and have an average 4.7 star rating. Here again, the initial results are very promising, with Philosophy's brand revenues up over 10% during the quarter. As you can see, our skincare acceleration has begun in earnest over the last few months, spanning new innovations, elevated online and offline merchandising, unique storytelling, and brand equity building. Moving to our fourth strategic pillar, digital and e-com.

We continued here our broad-based momentum across e-commerce, social commerce, and consumer advocacy. Live streaming has been a key pillar in growing Lancaster brand awareness, storytelling, and trial in China. This is just the beginning. As we've steadily stepped up our live streaming in China, whether with KOLs, our beauty advisors, or even our very own Prestige Chief Commercial Officer, Caroline, who you can see on this slide, our Lancaster live stream sales are growing month-over-month. In fact, KOL live streaming on Douyin that took place in the quarter generated over $300K in sales in only 3.5 hours. On e-com, we are building on our digital success with the opening of the Marc Jacobs flagship store on LazMall, the leading e-retailer in the highly promising Southeast Asia region, with a reach of over 90 million consumers.

It's encouraging to see that Marc Jacobs reached the number 1 fragrance rank on LazMall in April. As mentioned earlier, we are fully focused on step changing our reach with micro and macro influencers to drive advocacy for our brands. A prime example of the success of this strategy is CoverGirl's Yummy Gloss, which has become a viral hit with Gen Z consumers, reaching over 120 million views on TikTok and driving over 8 million unit sales to date, which is three times higher than our original target. Moving now to our fifth strategic pillar, building our presence in China. Since the lifting of COVID restrictions at the end of calendar 2022, we have seen our China sales rebound as we expand our local presence.

It's worth highlighting that in Q4, our revenues in China, including Hainan, have increased over 15% versus 2 years ago, though the monthly trends remain uneven, given the changing government regulations and gradual macro recovery. In the meantime, we continue to expand the awareness and reach of our brands in the country. For example, Burberry Hero has now become the number 3 male fragrance in China, right behind Bleu de Chanel and Dior Sauvage. With the imminent launch of Burberry Goddess in China, we are very excited about the potential of the overall Burberry brand. On the ultra-premium fragrance side, you can see pictured on this slide, a recent event we hosted in Hainan, where Chloé Fragrance ambassador, Bai Jingting, introduced the new Santalum and Violette Atelier des Fleurs scents to a huge audience.

In sum, we firmly believe in the significant potential of the China market for Coty, where our brands are highly desired, but still limited in distribution and scale. The continued strong beauty demand in China, despite macro fluctuations and our expansion opportunities in this market, both position China as an incremental addition to our medium-term outlook rather than a key building block. Finally, we are continuing to see incredible momentum in our travel retail sales. Both in the quarter and in fiscal 2023, our travel retail sales grew over 30% like-for-like. As a result, our travel retail sales are approximately 8% of our overall business. This is consistent with our travel retail penetration in 2019, even though international travel is still below pre-COVID levels.

We've continued to gain share in the high growth and highly profitable travel retail channel, particularly in EMEA and in the Americas, fueled by distribution expansion, travel retail exclusivities, successful innovations, and our growing multi-category presence. With no signs of slowing in global consumers' appetite for travel, coupled with the return of Chinese travelers in the coming quarters, we remain highly optimistic about the growth potential of this channel for Coty. Turning now to our sixth and final strategic pillar, which is becoming a leader in sustainability. We have several ESG milestones over the last few months. First, we are continuing to strengthen the ESG governance within the organization, as we've extended the sustainability office under Dr. Shimei Fan.

Second, in our ongoing efforts to reduce our packaging-related carbon footprint, we continue to expand our lineup of refillable products, with Burberry Goddess becoming the latest launch to offer refillable packaging. This follows on the footsteps of Chloé Naturelle and Dans eau de parfum, as well as our recently launched Adidas Active Skin & Mind new line. That brings me to our outlook for fiscal 2024. We expect fiscal 2024 core like-for-like revenues to grow at the top of our medium-term target range of 6%-8% like-for-like, without outperformance by Prestige. Fiscal 2024 reported revenues are expected to include a 0%-2% benefit from Forex, primarily in the first half fiscal 2024, and a 1%-2% scope headwind for year from the divestiture of the Lacoste license concentrated in the second half.

We expect modest fiscal 2024 gross margin expansion year-on-year, consistent with our growth algorithm. There are a number of timing-related factors, which are driving some pressure on our gross margins in the first half, primarily elevated COGS inflation, as well as a return to the historical weight of fragrance gift sets, which had declined in the mix last year due to significant supply constraints. More importantly, based on everything we see today, all of these timing elements should significantly moderate in the second half, and we continue to expect modest gross margin expansion in fiscal 2024, driven by strong year-on-year improvement in gross margins in the second half of the year.

We are targeting fiscal 2024 adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 10- 30 basis points, implying adjusted EBITDA of $1.065 billion-$1.075 billion, based on current Forex rates and inclusive of the profit headwinds from the divestiture of the Lacoste license. We are estimating total fiscal 2024 adjusted EPS, excluding equity swap, of $0.44-$0.47, implying a strong +16%- +25% growth. We continue to target further reduction in leverage towards 3 times exiting calendar 2023, approximately 2.5 times exiting calendar 2024, and approximately 2 times exiting calendar 2025. Let me also share some context on the first half outlook.

Given the very strong revenue growth momentum we saw in Q4, which is continuing into the current quarter, we expect first half core like-for-like sales growth of 8%-10% without performance by Prestige. For reported revenues, we expect a Forex benefit to revenues in the first half of 1%-2%. On the profit side, we expect first half 2024 adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 10-30 basis points, which is consistent with the full year picture. We estimate first half adjusted EPS of $0.35-$0.38. To sum up, the beauty market remains a strong and outperforming category, with ongoing premiumization trends.

In this attractive backdrop, we are successfully executing on the strategy we laid out 3 years ago, with momentum across our core categories and early wins in the white space opportunities we are pursuing, including female fragrances, ultra-premium fragrances, skincare, Prestige cosmetics, China, and travel retail. We are delivering a best-in-class medium-term growth algorithm, including a mid-20s % EPS CAGR, active deleveraging, and capital returns as we propel our growth story and strengthen our position as a beauty powerhouse. With that, let me open up the call for your questions.

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