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Earnings Call: Q3 2023

May 9, 2023

Olga Levinzon
SVP of Investor Relations, Coty

Good morning and good afternoon, everyone. This is Olga Levinzon, Coty's Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you for joining us today for the prepared remarks portion of Coty's third quarter fiscal 2023 earnings. Later this morning at approximately 8:15 A.M. Eastern Time, we will hold a separate live Q&A session on today's results, which you can access via our investor relations website. Joining me this morning for our presentation are Sue Nabi, Coty's CEO, and Laurent Mercier, Coty's CFO. Before I hand the call over to Sue, I would like to remind you that many of the comments today may contain forward-looking statements. Please refer to Coty's earnings release and the reports filed with the SEC, where the company lists factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements.

In addition, except where noted, the discussion of Coty's financial results and Coty's expectations reflect certain adjustments as specified in the non-GAAP financial measures section of the company's release. Thank you. I will now turn it over to our CEO, Sue Nabi.

Sue Nabi
CEO, Coty

Thank you, Olga. Welcome everyone. We are once again proud to report strong operational and financial performance with today's Q3 results, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of results in line to ahead of expectations. In a complex global environment, beauty remained an advantaged category with consumers at the sweet spot of affordable luxury, self-care, and confidence boosting. We saw no signs of slowing in consumers' appetite for fragrances as the fragrance index, as we like to call it, remained in full effect. We once again delivered another quarter of balanced growth with like-for-like growth across both divisions, across each of our regions, and across our key categories, including fragrances, cosmetics, and body care. This has allowed us to again report sales growth above the underlying beauty market.

As a result, we continue to target growing our sales ahead of the beauty market, growing our profit ahead of sales, and steadily deleveraging our balance sheet, positioning our company to become a true beauty powerhouse. I'm also very grateful to our board for their continued support and trust in me as we've recently announced the extension of my long-term partnership with Coty, anchored on a long-term equity program which runs through 2030. I'm, as you can imagine, very excited to continue to work with my leadership team to drive Coty forward to build substantial value for all stakeholders for many years to come. I would like to call out a few highlights from our results. First, we once again delivered revenue growth ahead of expectations and guidance, fueled by the strong beauty demand, retailers restocking post the holidays, and successful key brand initiatives in both divisions.

Our Q3 core like-for-like revenues grew 15%. Second, beginning in Q3, we've kicked off the full multi-pronged growth acceleration of our strategic skincare business, including new launches, merchandising updates, distribution expansion, and PR events. As such, consistent with what we've discussed in recent months, we are reinvesting behind these strategic initiatives and the underlying organization to drive our future growth flywheel in the coming years, while at the same time confirming our profit delivery in fiscal 2023 and beyond, in line with our guidance and leverage target towards 3x exceeding calendar 2023. Third, we continue to execute and make progress across our strategic growth pillars. Finally, we are raising our core like-for-like fiscal 2023 revenue guidance to +9% to +10%, while maintaining our fiscal 2023 EBITDA guidance of $955 million-$965 million.

We are also raising our fiscal 2023 adjusted EPS guidance. Assuming the current share price holds, we expect over 85% growth in our overall adjusted EPS to $0.52-$0.53. Excluding the equity swap benefit, we now expect a fiscal 2023 adjusted EPS of $0.38-$0.39, reflecting very strong growth of roughly 35% year-on-year, up from previous guidance of $0.35-$0.36. I will now take a few moments to cover our revenue trends during the quarter before Laurent takes you through our financials. I will finish with an update on our strategic progress and our outlook. Starting with our revenue performance, our Q3 core revenues grew 15% like-for-like, adjusted for our exit from Russia.

This brings our fiscal year to date core business revenue growth to +10% like for like, ahead of our original 6%-8% like for like growth guidance. In Q3, our core prestige business grew 16% like for like, adjusting for the Russia exit, resulting in +10% core like for like growth fiscal year to date. The strong sales growth acceleration in Q3 reflected continued robust fragrance demand, which actually strengthened further in recent months, improving in our prestige fragrance supply and retailer restocking, which we estimate provided a mid-single-digit percent benefit to our Q3 growth. We estimate that retailer inventories are now at normalized levels, which should drive Q4 sell-in to be relatively aligned with sell-out. Within the Q3 Prestige growth, we saw mid-single-digit volume growth and double-digit expansion in price and mix.

In Consumer Beauty, our Q3 core revenues grew 12% like-for-like, bringing the fiscal year-to-date core like-for-like growth to +11%. Our Q3 Consumer Beauty growth included low single-digit volume growth and double-digit price and mix. Geographically, I'm very pleased to say that the like-for-like revenues continued to grow in all regions. Americas revenue grew 15% like-for-like in the quarter, with double-digit growth in nearly every market. EMEA sales grew +18% like-for-like in Q3, which adjusts for the Russia exit. We saw double-digit growth in nearly every market, with particularly strong momentum in regional travel retail. Asia Pacific revenue grew 4% like-for-like in Q3, with strong momentum in broader Asia and travel retail, and negative but steadily improving trends in China as retailers worked through inventory.

Importantly, April sales in China, including Hainan, have increased both versus last year and versus two years ago, speaking to the strong signs of recovery in the market. I will now hand the call over to Laurent to take you through our financial results.

Laurent Mercier
CFO, Coty

Thank you, Sue. In a complex global environment, I am pleased to say that we continue to deliver strong financial performance with the Q3 results marking the 11th consecutive quarter of results in line to ahead of expectations. Let's start with an update on the global supply and inflationary backdrop and how we are navigating through this difficult environment. As we spoke about last quarter, the continued robust demand for fragrances resulted in industry-wide supply chain shortages in key fragrance components. The biggest constraints have been felt in glass bottles, though the supply of fragrance caps and pumps has also been limited. As we discussed in recent months, our Prestige service levels improved significantly in the third quarter, reaching a high 80s level exiting the quarter and only a few percentage points below targeted levels.

This improvement was driven by strong efforts by our supply chain team to systematically address component constraints by qualifying additional suppliers as well as by industry capacity coming online. As a result, retailers restocked on fragrances following the trade inventory depletion during Q2. Turning to the inflationary backdrop, in the third quarter, COGS inflation rose sequentially to over 2% of sales, in line with our expectations. We expect a further increase in COGS inflation to approximately 2.5% in the fourth quarter. We continue to estimate COGS inflation of approximately 2% of revenues in fiscal year 2023.

Looking to fiscal year 2024, in the first half of the fiscal year, we currently expect COGS inflation to be consistent with the levels observed in the second half of fiscal 2023, with a moderation in COGS inflation closer to 1% in the second half of fiscal year 2024. In addition, we expect somewhat higher inflationary pressure in SG&A. Our execution on savings, strategic revenue management, and pricing is helping us balance this inflationary back impact. We are currently evaluating another round of pricing in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024 as we continue our portfolio transition to cleaner and more sustainable products, including for the majority of our fragrance portfolio to be produced using carbon-captured ethanol by end of calendar 2023, while simultaneously driving category value expansion. I will now provide an update on our All In to Win program.

In Q3, we delivered savings of approximately $60 million, bringing our year-to-date savings to approximately $130 million. As savings ramp up from key initiatives, including our fragrance plant consolidation and material value analysis, we continue to target savings of approximately $170 million in fiscal year 2023. We also continue to target savings of approximately $90 million in fiscal year 2024 and $75 million in fiscal year 2025, reaffirming the savings targets announced in Q2. In sum, having delivered over $550 million of savings live to date, we continue to optimize all of our processes and expenditures, thereby positioning Coty to be both flexible and fully equipped to invest in our strategic priorities.

Importantly, we are now entering phase II of our transformation as we put in place more enablers for sustainable growth across the brands and markets, supplementing our savings initiatives. Turning to our adjusted EPS, where we reported strong momentum in the quarter. You know, we are obligated to include in our adjusted net income and adjusted EPS the mark-to-market changes on the equity swaps we entered in calendar year 2022, which locked in an effective stock price below $8 for close to $400 million of future buybacks in calendar year 2024 and calendar year 2025. These are non-cash and non-operational impacts, which will be mechanically calculated based on the quarter-end stock price, we are tracking and measuring our EPS performance both including and excluding the impacts from the equity swaps.

We will therefore guide on EPS both including and excluding the swap, and to explicitly call out the swap impact in our earnings report to easily enable investors to understand our operational performance. As a result, we recommend for investors and analysts to include in your models the two EPS figures, our operational EPS excluding the swap, and the EPS inclusive of the swap, which by necessity will be shown in our earnings releases. With that context, our Q3 diluted adjusted EPS was $0.19, which includes a non-cash EPS benefit of $0.13 from the mark-to-market on the equity swap. Our operational EPS excluding the swap was $0.06, reflecting a $0.03 increase year-on-year, driven by the operating income growth as well as a lower effective tax rate.

On a fiscal year-to-date basis, our adjusted EPS including the swap was $0.52 or almost 80% higher year-on-year, and our adjusted EPS excluding the swap was $0.38, which reflects very substantial growth of 31% versus last year. Looking ahead to the remainder of fiscal year 2023, I would like to provide some more context on the different drivers of our adjusted EPS. First, we continue to expect depreciation to be in the mid $200 million. Second, we continue to expect net interest for the year to also be in the mid $200 million. We now expect an adjusted effective tax rate for fiscal 2023, excluding the equity swap of mid-to-high 20s, a little below our previous outlook of high 20s.

Finally, on fiscal 2023 share count based on GAAP accounting provisions around anti-dilution, we continue to expect diluted shares at the $860 million-$870 million range. Moving to our profit delivery for the quarter. Our Q3 adjusted operating income grew 8% to $123 million, with our year-to-date at operating income expanding a strong 15% year-on-year. This delivery was particularly impressive given strong Forex headwinds, which negatively impacted our year-to-date profit by over $50 million. The Prestige division delivered double-digit operating income growth in the quarter, while the Consumer Beauty division saw an operating loss reflecting both the stepped up investment in ANCP around the Key Spring initiatives, coupled with certain transactional Forex costs.

Our Q3 adjusted operating margin was relatively stable at 9.5% year-over-year, with our year-to-date margin up strongly by 180 basis points to 15.1%. Importantly, we continue to expect strong income growth and margin expansion in both divisions in fiscal year 2023. Our adjusted EBITDA was stable with the prior year at $182 million, with 4% growth year-to-date to $807 million. Year-to-date adjusted EBITDA margin reached 19.2%, up 50 basis point versus last year. Moving to our gross margin performance.

Q3 adjusted gross margin of 62.9% decreased by 170 basis points from last year, bringing the year-to-date adjusted gross margin to 64.2%, which is stable year-on-year and up by a very significant 450 basis points versus two years ago. Our Q3 gross margin was impacted by close to 100 basis points of one-time negative impacts, including the benefit from the Wella TSA exit in the prior year, an increase in COGS inflation to over 2% of sales, and a negative impact from transactional Forex. These impacts on gross margin were partially offset by the execution of additional pricing increases at the end of the quarter, which will have a more sizable benefit to gross margin in Q4 and the positive benefits from mix and supply chain productivity.

Despite these high headwinds, we continue to expect modest gross margin expansion in Q4 and fiscal year 2023, with further expansion in the following years. Going forward, we will continue executing on our multi-pronged, multi-year gross margin attack plan, as we drive our gross margins to the mid-sixties and beyond. Let me now walk you through our marketing investment. In Q3, ANCP investment represented approximately 27% of sales, stable with Q2 levels and with the prior year as we continue to support our key initiatives. This brings the year to date ANCP level to approximately 26%, in line with our expectations. As with prior quarters, our marketing spend was concentrated behind key launches in prestige and consumer beauty, as well as white space opportunities.

For the fourth quarter, we expect ANCP to remain in the high twenties level of sales, resulting in in full fiscal 2023 ANCP also ending in the high twenties level of sales. Moving to our free cash flow. We had free cash outflows of $178 million in the quarter. This was consistent with Coty's seasonally weaker cash flow period and our active efforts to build prestige fragrance inventory to secure the fall 2023 holiday season in the midst of persistent constraints in key fragrance components. Year to date, we have generated $365 million of free cash flow. Consistent with our previous guidance, we remain on track to deliver over $400 million of free cash flow in fiscal 2023, with steady expansion in the coming years.

Our intent is to continue to use our strong free cash flow and opportunistic asset monetization to actively reduce our debt and advance our deleveraging agenda. Moving to our capital structure. We ended Q3 with net debt of approximately $4.1 billion, reflecting the seasonally negative free cash flow in the quarter and the negative translational Forex impact on our debt from the strengthening euro. As a result, our leverage at the end of the quarter was around 4.4x , up from around 4.1x at the end of Q2, and consistent with our expectations. The book value of our retained 26% Wella stake remained $1.04 billion, consistent with Q2. Factoring in our Wella stake, we ended the quarter with economic net debt of approximately $3.1 billion.

We continue to expect an attractive return when we divest our Wella stake by fiscal 2025. In addition, given the rising interest rate environment, it is important to note that currently approximately 70% of our debt is fixed. Looking beyond 2023, our strong continued progress on deleveraging and debt pay down support our expectation for interest expense to steadily decline in the coming years, despite the currently rising interest rate environment. To sum up, we are confident in our next major leverage milestone as we continue to target exiting calendar 2023 with leverage towards 3 x. Before I turn the call back to Sue, I want to comment on our recent announcement that we are exploring a potential dual listing on the Paris Stock Exchange.

Such a dual listing will further strengthen Coty's presence in Europe and would provide an additional vehicle to reach untapped investors in the market. At this time, we would anticipate listing existing Coty shares on the Paris Stock Exchange with no additional share insurances being contemplated. The structure aligns with Coty's over 100-year heritage in France and our substantial business footprint in Europe. I will now hand it back to Sue to review our strategic progress in the quarter.

Sue Nabi
CEO, Coty

Thank you very much, Laurent. Let me now share some highlights from our continued execution on our six strategic pillars. Starting with our first strategic pillar, which is stabilizing and now growing our consumer beauty business. In the quarter, both the mass beauty market and our consumer beauty division remained very dynamic. The market grew in high single digits in Q3, in part aided by easier comparisons earlier in the quarter. At the same time, both our consumer beauty like-for-like revenues and sell out grew low double digits, marking the 5th consecutive quarter of share gains for the business globally. As you can see on this slide, our top color cosmetics brands all gained share globally with particularly strong double-digit like-for-like sales growth in CoverGirl, Rimmel, and Max Factor.

CoverGirl led the booming trend in lip with the viral launch of its Clean Fresh Yummy Gloss, which has become the number one lip launch nationally and the fifth launch across all of mass cosmetics. This has helped drive further expansion in CoverGirl's household penetration, particularly amongst Hispanic and Gen Z consumers. Our focus for CoverGirl continues to be on driving penetration with Gen Z and millennial consumers. This will help the brand close the sales growth gap with the US cosmetics category. CoverGirl's recent launches of the Yummy Gloss and Skin Priming Serums are both aimed at these younger consumers. As the next exciting step in this strategy, we've just announced the upcoming launch of CoverGirl's new Lash Blast Cleantopia Mascara, the first brand plant-powered clean mascara.

At the same time, Max Factor continues to shine, growing close to 30% excluding Russia, fueled by its exclusive collection with Priyanka Chopra Jonas, as well as its early but very successful entry into mass skincare with the launch of the Miracle Pure Skin-Illuminating Priming Serum. Turning to our second pillar, focused on accelerating our luxury fragrance business. We continue to see the fragrance index in full effect. With increased fragrance usage by Gen Z, men, and Hispanic consumers, further underpinned by social media. In fact, in Q3, demand for prestige fragrances across North America and Europe accelerated to the mid-teens % above the high single-digit growth recorded last quarter, and of course, well above the historical low- to mid-single digits growth of the fragrance market. As a result, the fragrance market is now over 40% higher than 2019.

Once again, the market data confirms no slowing in the premiumization trend in fragrances. With expected growth in fragrance consumption in China and further rebound in travel retail still ahead, coupled with a resurgence of demand in Europe, similar to what we've seen in the U.S., we remain optimistic about the strong momentum ahead for the fragrance category. At the same time, we continue to strengthen and extend our licensed portfolio with the recent renewal of the Davidoff license beyond 2040, which follows the license renewals in the recent months of both Hugo Boss and Jil Sander. As a result, the average remaining duration of Coty's top 7 licenses, which account for approximately 90% of our prestige fragrance business, is now 11 years. On prestige cosmetics now, trends have been improving sequentially with the reopening of the China economy.

During the quarter, we launched in China new long-wear foundations under both Burberry and Gucci as part of our strategy to enter the higher loyalty complexion subcategory. The new Burberry Beyond Wear Perfecting Matte Foundation is inspired by the revolutionary fabric of Burberry's iconic trench coat and provides 24-hour wear and protection against the elements. The launch is off to a great start, with consumers nicknaming it the Trench Foundation and with sales well above our targets. In the US, our prestige makeup brands continue to outpace the category, with both Gucci makeup and Kylie makeup sell-out growing over 30% or 1.5x to 2x the growth of the U.S. prestige market. Finally, on Kylie Cosmetics, the brand's makeup sales grew strong double digits globally.

This growth is fueled by expanding distribution, including a growing footprint in Macy's and the recent successful launches in Dubai, as well as the brand's expanded assortment, with more innovation already launching in Q4 with the introduction of Kylash, Kylie's first-ever mascara, which is off to a great start. Shifting to our third strategic pillar, building our skincare business. In the last few months, we've ignited our comprehensive strategy as planned with exciting initiatives across each of our key skincare brands, Lancaster, Orveda, and Philosophy, and many more to come in the coming quarters and years. As we've continued to share, accelerating our skincare presence will be a multi-year journey, and the combination of the strong business momentum we are seeing in the rest of our business and our savings generation, both will be crucial to funding this journey and at the same time, delivering our targeted multi-year profit expansion.

Let me start with Lancaster. In mid-March, we've launched Lancaster's ultra-premium skincare line called Ligne Princière, bringing to the forefront Lancaster's heritage as the exclusive brand of the Monaco princely family, backed by patented and top testing formulations. We have executed a fully omni-channel launch around Ligne Princière. We can see in this video the very first Lancaster flagship stores launched in Hangzhou, China, on March 21st, in partnership with China's number one department store retailers Intime. We are continuing to open new Ligne Princière doors at the most luxurious locations in the Chinese mainland and Hainan, while also launching Ligne Princière on Tmall and Douyin. While we are still at very early stages in the Ligne Princière launch, the initial results are promising.

The Ligne Princière line has reached the number one spot in social buzz across social media in China, which is a critical component in driving consumer awareness and, of course, trial. In fact, consumers are now calling our cream the Caddy Cream online. The conversion rate at our initial counters in the Chinese mainland and Hainan are currently in line to ahead of the leading beauty brands. The consumer comments and reviews are overwhelmingly positive on the packaging, on the scent, and on the texture, with an average product rating of 4.9 out of five. We view these KPIs, social buzz, sales conversion, and product reviews as the three most important metrics for any new skincare launch, and we will be focusing on these areas for each of our key skincare brands in the coming quarters. Shifting to Orveda.

In the last few months, we have begun to build the awareness, buzz, and desirability of this ultra-premium skincare brand amongst our target consumers, ultra-high-net-worth individuals, celebrities, opinion leaders, especially in the scientific community, and leading figures in the art world. Orveda partnered with Paris Art Design Show in Paris to connect with contemporary art and its influent global community of high-net-worth collectors. During the recent Paris Fashion Week, Orveda also partnered with three of the most trendy fashion designers, Courrèges, Giambattista Valli, and Ann Demeulemeester, to bring its exclusive signature glow to the models backstage with the post-procedure lines of Orveda helping the models' sensitized skins. Orveda has been awarded three times recently by beauty editors in U.K., U.S.A., and Spain, including the most coveted award, the Prix d'Excellence Marie Claire, making Orveda our most awarded skincare brand.

This lays a strong foundation for Orveda's critical commercial and launch initiatives slated for fiscal 2024. Now to our largest skincare brand, Philosophy. Our comeback of the brand kicked off in the last month across all touchpoints in the U.S. First, Philosophy announced the new brand formulation principle, dermatologic wisdom. Second, Philosophy has launched its latest product innovation, dose of wisdom bouncy skin reactivating serum. While still very early, sales results are over 20% ahead of our targets. Third, we've relaunched Philosophy's DTC website, which is a significant portion of the brand's sales. The new site offers a more elevated brand experience and includes many new features, such as immersive content modules, enhanced product detail pages, subscription program for replenishment orders, and personalized product recommendations.

While still early, we're already begun to see an improvement in the conversion rate on the new website as compared to the previous one. We have updated our in-store displays and merchandising, beginning with Ulta. Let's take a look now at the video campaign for Philosophy's new dose of wisdom serum.

Speaker 4

Do repair serums really keep skin at peak performance? Our Philosophy introduces a better way based on dermatologic wisdom. The new dose of wisdom serum supports skin's own natural function with the patented vitality booster. Loaded with oxygen, it's the life force of healthy, bouncy skin. 92% agree skin looks more plump. After all, bouncy is the new healthy. The new dose of wisdom serum from Philosophy.

Sue Nabi
CEO, Coty

Our skincare acceleration has begun in earnest over the last few months, spanning new innovations, elevated online and offline merchandising, and unique differentiating storytelling and brand equity building. All of these foundational activities require upfront investment, we are, of course, very mindful of key metrics to track our success and ROI as we ramp sales towards our target of over $500 million in the next few years. This includes pace of store openings and the productivity of those stores, consumer loyalty and repurchase rates, PR buzz, desirability and reach, building successful hero products for each brand, and trust and reputation with the scientific community. Moving now to our fourth strategic pillar, which is digital and e-commerce expansion. There, we continued our broad-based momentum across e-com, social commerce, and consumer advocacy.

On e-commerce, our prestige fragrance brands, Hugo Boss and Chloé, are now amongst the top five fragrance brands on LazMall Prestige, the leading e-retailer in the highly promising Southeast Asia region. With a reach of over 19 million consumers, we are building on this success with the opening of the Marc Jacobs flagship store on LazMall in April. In Q3, we also activated a very successful omni-channel launch of Kylie Beauty in the Middle East by partnering with Namshi, the region's fastest-growing e-retailer. The online activations were coupled with a brand pop-up in the largest mall in the world, Dubai Mall, and also taking over the tallest building in the world, which is Burj Khalifa. The results have been very promising, with the brands maintaining a top five cosmetics brand ranking with the e-retailer, nearly reaching our fiscal 2023 retail sales in the first nine days.

As mentioned earlier, CoverGirl Yummy Gloss has been a viral hit with Gen Z consumers, reaching over 100 million views on TikTok. This marks the second phase of our CoverGirl reinvention with a key launch that's targeting the key Gen Z and millennial consumers. Moving to our fifth strategic pillar, building our presence in China. Since the lifting of COVID restrictions at the end of calendar 2022, we have seen a steady return of consumer traffic to stores and resumption of flights to Hainan. Inventory worked down at some of our China retailers and distributors weighed on our Q3 sales in China, it's important to highlight that in April, our sales in China, including Hainan, have increased versus both last year and versus two years ago.

This reinforces our confidence in the strong multi-year potential of China for our business as we expand our presence in this critical market. Chinese consumers continue to actively engage with our brands and key launches in the quarter, including Lancaster Ligne Princière , where our announcement of Chinese actress Guan Xiaotong as the brand ambassador is driving a lot of excitement and awareness. Chloé on Tmall and new Atelier des Fleurs fragrance, building on the brand's already strong momentum, having reached the four position fragrance brand in China travel retail in calendar 2022. Burberry new launched Beyond Wear Foundation, and of course, Gucci newly launched Éternité de Beauté foundation. Finally, we are continuing to see incredible momentum in our travel retail sales, both in Q3 and year to date, our travel retail sales grew over 30%.

Our travel retail sales are approximately 8% of our overall business. This is consistent with our travel retail penetration in 2019, even though international travel is still close to 20% below pre-COVID levels. Here, we've continued to gain share in the mid-high growth and highly profitable travel retail channel, particularly in EMEA and in the Americas, fueled by distribution expansion, travel retail exclusivities, successful innovations, and of course, our growing multi-category presence. With no signs of slowing in global consumers' appetite for travel, coupled with the return of Chinese travelers in the coming quarters, we remain highly optimistic about the growth potential of this channel for the beauty industry as a whole and Coty in particular. Turning now to our sixth and final strategic pillar, which is becoming a leader in sustainability. We had several ESG milestones over the last few months.

First, we launched the world's first globally distributed fragrance manufactured using ethanol from 100% recycled carbon emissions in partnership with LanzaTech. Gucci's latest fragrance, Where My Heart Beats, is a key development in Coty's Beauty that Lasts sustainability strategy. Importantly, we are targeting for the majority of our fragrance portfolio to be produced using carbon captured ethanol or alcohol by the end of calendar 2023. We know that consumers are willing to pay a premium for clean and sustainable products. Additionally, building our purpose, vision, and values, Coty launched the #UndefinedBeauty campaign. #UndefinedBeauty campaign recognizes that current English language definitions of the term beauty are outdated and calls on dictionary publishers to remove the implicit ageism and sexism from their definitions.

We've seen a very strong, positive response from our employees, our brand partners, and our retail customers to this campaign, truly positioning Coty as a thought leader on this very crucial topic. That brings me to our outlook for the remainder of the year. We expect Q4 like-for-like sales growth of the core business to be relatively consistent with the fiscal year to date growth of +10%. As a reminder, there will be no impact from the Russia exit in Q4. At current rates, we expect Q4 Forex headwinds on revenues in the low single-digit percent. Importantly, we continue to expect modest Q4 adjusted gross margin expansion. Altogether, we expect Q4 adjusted EPS of breakeven to $0.01.

For total fiscal 2023, we now expect revenues for the core business, adjusting for the impact of the Russia exit, to grow 9%-10% like for like, which reflects a significant increase from our original outlook for 6%-8% core like for like growth, adjusting for the impact of the Russia exit. We also continue to expect modest gross margin expansion year on year. We continue to target fiscal 2023 adjusted EBITDA of $955 million-$965 million based on current Forex rates, implying 50 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion and over 150 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion.

As a reminder, while our sales growth outlook has increased versus our expectations at the start of the year, our EBITDA outlook remains unchanged, both because we have incurred over $50 million of negative Forex impact on our profits fiscally up to date, because also we are actively reinvesting in our critical skincare organization and initiatives to fuel the growth flywheel in the coming years. Based on the strong EPS momentum year to date, we are increasing our fiscal 2023 adjusted EPS outlook. Assuming the current stock price holds, we now expect an overall adjusted EPS of $0.52-$0.53. Excluding the mark to market from the equity swap, we now expect approximately 35% growth in our fiscal 2023 operating adjusted EPS to $0.38-$0.39, up from our previous guidance of $0.35-$0.36.

We also continue to target a mid-20s% adjusted EPS CAGR through fiscal 2026, excluding any mark to market adjustments on the equity swap, consistent with the targets we discussed recently at CAGNY. We continue, of course, to target further reduction in leverage towards three times exiting calendar 2023 and 2x exiting calendar 2025. To sum up, I'm very encouraged by our strong and consistent delivery over the last several years, exceeding expectations in the majority of the quarters. We remain confident in beauty as a structurally attractive category and the longevity of the fragrance index. In this attractive market, Coty is poised to further outperform, given the significant white space opportunities ahead of us within skincare and in China and travel retail. In short, we are excited by the path ahead as we continue on our journey to transform our company into a true beauty powerhouse.

With that, let me open up the calls for your questions.

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