Cintas Corporation (CTAS)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2023

Dec 21, 2022

Operator

Good day, everyone, welcome to the Cintas second quarter fiscal year 2023 earnings release conference call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Paul Adler, Vice President, Treasurer, and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Paul Adler
VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer, Cintas

Thanks, Ross. Thank you for joining us. With me is Todd Schneider, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Mike Hansen, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We will discuss our fiscal 2023 second quarter results. After our commentary, we will open the call to questions from analysts. The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a safe harbor from civil litigation for forward-looking statements. This conference call contains forward-looking statements that reflect the company's current views as to future events and financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those we may discuss. I refer you to the discussion on these points contained in our most recent filings, excuse me, with the Securities and Exchange Commission. I'll now turn the call over to Todd.

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Thank you, Paul. Second quarter total revenue grew 13.1% to $2.17 billion. Each of our businesses increased revenue at a double-digit rate. The benefits of our strong revenue growth flowed through to our bottom line. Operating income margin increased 70 basis points to 20.5%, and diluted EPS grew 13% to $3.12. I thank our employees, whom we call partners, for their continued focus on our customers, our shareholders, and each other. The Uniform Rental and Facility Services operating segment revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2023 was $1.71 billion compared to $1.54 billion last year. The organic revenue growth rate was 11.3%. Revenue growth was driven mostly from increased volume.

Our sales force continues to add new customers and penetrate and cross-sell our existing customer base. Businesses prioritize all we provide, including image, safety, cleanliness, and compliance. Challenged with labor scarcity and rising costs, businesses continue to turn to Cintas to help them get ready for the workday. Additionally, price increases contributed at a higher level than historically. We believe such a mix of revenue drivers, volume and price, is healthy and supportive of continued long-term growth. Our First Aid & Safety Services operating segment revenue for the second quarter was $236.0 million compared to $202.2 million last year. The organic revenue growth rate was 15.1%. This rate reflects the continued momentum of our first aid cabinet business, which continues to grow more than 20%.

Whether it is COVID-19 or influenza, the health and safety of employees remains top of mind. We provide businesses with access to quick and effective products and services that promote health and wellbeing in the workplace. Personal protective equipment, or PPE, while still elevated compared to pre-COVID levels, declined slightly on a sequential basis. The revenue mix shift benefits our financial results, because the cabinet service is a more consistent revenue stream and has higher profit margins than PPE. Our Fire Protection Services and Uniform Direct Sale businesses are reported in the All Other segment. All Other revenue was $228.9 million compared to $184.9 million last year. The Fire business organic revenue growth rate was 18.0%, and the Uniform Direct Sale business organic growth rate was 33.9%.

Before turning the call over to Mike to provide details of our second quarter results, I'll provide our updated financial expectations for our fiscal year. We are increasing our financial guidance. We are raising our annual revenue expectations from a range of $8.58 billion-$8.67 billion to a range of $8.67 billion-$8.75 billion, a total growth rate of 10.4%-11.4%. Also, we are raising our annual diluted EPS expectations from a range of $12.30-$12.65 to a range of $12.50-$12.80, a growth rate of 10.8%-13.5%. Mike?

Mike Hansen
EVP and CFO, Cintas

Thanks, Todd. Good morning. Our fiscal 2023 second quarter revenue was $2.17 billion compared to $1.92 billion last year. The organic revenue growth rate, adjusted for acquisitions, divestitures, and foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations, was 12.8%. Gross margin for the second quarter of fiscal 2023 was $1 billion compared to $885.1 million last year, an increase of 15.5%. Gross margin as a percent of revenue was 47% for the second quarter of fiscal 2023, compared to 46% last year. Energy expenses comprised of gasoline, natural gas, and electricity were a headwind, increasing 10 basis points from last year. Strong volume growth from new customers and the penetration of existing customers with more products and services helped generate great operating leverage.

Gross margin percentage by business was 47% for Uniform Rental and Facility Services, 50.5% for First Aid & Safety Services. 47.4% for Fire Protection Services and 37.2% for Uniform Direct Sale. Operating income of $444.9 million compared to $381.2 million last year. Fiscal 2023 second quarter operating income increased 16.7%, and operating income margin increased 70 basis points to 20.5% from 19.8% last year. Our effective tax rate for the second quarter was 22.1% compared to 18% last year. The tax rate can move from period to period based on discrete events, including the amount of stock compensation expense.

Net income for the second quarter was $324.3 million compared to $294.7 million last year, an increase of 10.1%. This year's diluted EPS of $3.12 compared to $2.76 last year, an increase of 13%. We had to overcome higher inflation, interest expense, and tax rate. Therefore, we are especially pleased with these financial results. Cash flow remains strong. On September 15, 2022, we declared dividends and paid them on December 15, 2022, in the amount of $117.4 million in quarterly dividends. Todd provided our annual financial guidance. Related to the guidance, please note the following.

Fiscal 2022 included a gain on sale of operating assets in the first quarter and a gain on an equity method investment in the third quarter. Excluding these items, fiscal 2022 operating income was $1.55 billion, a margin of 19.7%, and diluted EPS was $11.28. Please see the table in our earnings press release for more information. Fiscal 2023 operating income is expected to be in the range of $1.75 billion-$1.79 billion compared to $1.55 billion in fiscal 2022 after excluding the gains. Fiscal 2023 interest expense is expected to be $113 million compared to $88.8 million in fiscal 2022, due in part to higher interest rates.

Our fiscal 2023 effective tax rate is expected to be 20.7%. This compares to a rate of 17.9% in fiscal 2022 after excluding the gains and their related tax impacts. Please keep the following in mind when modeling third quarter versus fourth quarter financial results. The number of workdays in the third and fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 are unchanged from fiscal 2022. There are 64 days in the third quarter and 66 in the fourth. Less workdays results in less revenue to cover certain fixed and amortizing costs. In last year's third quarter, First Aid & Safety sold about $15 million in COVID test kits. We don't expect that revenue to repeat this year. Uniform Direct Sale organic revenue growth rates have been very strong year-to-date.

We expect these rates to be pressured in the second half of the fiscal year as the business faces increasingly challenging comparisons. Payroll taxes reset in our third fiscal third quarter, increasing our SG&A costs on a sequential basis. Our financial guidance does not include the impact of any future share buybacks. We remain in a dynamic environment that can continue to change. Our guidance contemplates a stable economy and excludes pandemic-related setbacks or economic downturns. I'll turn it back over to Paul.

That concludes our prepared remarks. Now, we are happy to answer questions from the analysts. Please ask just one question and a single follow-up if needed. Thank you.

Operator

If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad now. Please be prepared to ask your question when prompted. You will also be allowed to ask one follow-up question. Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your phone now. Our first question comes from Faiza Alwy from Deutsche Bank Securities. Please go ahead, Faiza.

Faiza Alwy
Managing Director of US Company Research, Deutsche Bank

Yes. Hi, good morning. Thank you. You know, you've had really good results, congratulations on that. I'm curious, you know, how would you characterize your outperformance? Has it been more because of new business? Has pricing come in sort of better than you expected? Maybe as part of that if you could talk about, you know, your SAP program, like how much of a benefit do you think that has had, you know, over the, during the course of this year?

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Good morning, Faiza. Thank you for your question. Yeah, we're our beat on the revenue side are driven significantly by new business. It's continues to be very attractive for us. But we are selling more items into our customer base, so it's pretty broad. I mentioned in the prepared comments that pricing is above what our historical experience has been as you can imagine, due to the experience with inflation that we're seeing across our organization. But it is but the primary driver is volume growth, and we're benefiting from that. We're investing for that. Things are we like the trend there.

As far as on the margin side, we are committed that we are not going to be solely focused on growing margins because of pricing. In fact, you know, we are dedicated to finding efficiencies in our business. Some of that is through revenue leverage, just general revenue leverage that we get. We are we're focused on finding efficiencies. You mentioned SAP. Certainly, that technology is helping us significantly. We've had we've talked about our the digitization or digital transformation of our business. That has been very, very important to us, and we're seeing benefits, whether it's in our routing efficiencies, productivity of our sales partners, getting better reuse of our products in service inventory because of SAP.

Those are all, benefits that we're seeing, and, the marketplace is noticing it, and it's helping us with a competitive advantage in the marketplace.

Faiza Alwy
Managing Director of US Company Research, Deutsche Bank

Great. As we look ahead, you know, some companies have started talking about, started sounding a little bit more cautious. You know, as you know, a lot of economists are forecasting a potential recession. Talk about, you know, You've talked previously about how your business might get impacted, talk about like what's the sales pitch during a recession. I think that would be helpful for us to hear.

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Great. You know, first off, we continue to watch our customer base very closely. We're looking at all of our data to see if there's some trends that we might see if customers are consuming less and what have you. We're watching that. As far as in a recession, you know, every recession that I've been, I've experienced, well, since sort of the last 33 years, we've always sold an attractive amount of new business.

The reason being is, we help businesses, and in an environment, we help them position them for success as far as, if they're in the business and they have less people, then somebody still has to take care of certain functions. We're able to sell value there. If they are in an environment where they're looking to save money, and in many cases, we're able to save them money. It's not that we're always asking for increased spend. It's just redirect the spend to us.

In many cases, we're able to help customers with that instead of spending it with some other vendor or with an outsourced item that they bring it to us, and we can bring efficiencies to them. We fully expect that our new business will be attractive in any type of economic environment. Certainly, we prefer when the economy is growing robustly, but we'll find ways to be successful in whatever the environment.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ashish Sabadra from RBC. Please go ahead, Ashish.

John Mazzoni
Assistant VP of Equity Research, RBC

Hi, this is John filling in for Ashish. Congratulations on the strong results. Maybe just follow up on Faiza's question. Could you talk more about kind of retention as well as just what the current customer conversations are going like today? Thanks.

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Yeah, thank you, John. I'll speak to it if, Mike, if you'd like to contribute on this subject. First off, our retention levels are quite attractive. We very much like where they are. We're focused on making sure that our customer is, it's why we wake up in the morning, is to take care of them. That focus, that culture is pervasive. We're making sure that our partners are positioned to be able to make sure they can take care of them and exceed their expectations. All that is attractive for us. Keep in mind, we have a really broad customer base.

You know, we serve over 1 million customers that we see on a very consistent basis. Some are doing, some are challenged in the current economic environment, whether it's they struggle to find people, or they're struggling with the wage inflation or inflation in general. We have other customers that are thriving in this type of environment. Frankly, we have everything in between. Generally speaking, what we see are, we still like what we see with our customer base. I think that broad customer base is a real benefit for us.

John Mazzoni
Assistant VP of Equity Research, RBC

That's great color. Thank you. Maybe quickly to follow up. Could you just talk about capital allocation and if there's any change there and just what you're seeing today in M&A, given some of the more challenging headwinds with inflationary pressures?

Mike Hansen
EVP and CFO, Cintas

Sure, John. This is Mike, we haven't changed our philosophy in terms of capital allocation. We wanna continue to invest in the business. Certainly, as we've seen the accelerated growth over the last three quarters, we are investing in the business. We love M&A, and we continue to have all of the discussions to try to keep that pipeline active. You know, it always takes two to come to a decision and we are working those conversations hard. You know, our expectation is that we will be able to continue in the M&A path. We certainly love that.

That option. And certainly we, I misspoke a minute ago on dividends. We paid a dividend in September, on September 15th, we paid another one on December 15th. And we certainly have increased the dividend every year we've gone public. We like that option as well. Then the buyback continues to be an opportunistic alternative for us when we have excess cash. No philosophy changes. We're still working all of those in the same way that we have.

Operator

Our next question comes from George Tong from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, George.

George Tong
Senior Research Analyst of Equity Research Business Services, Goldman Sachs

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. You mentioned you're continuing to sell more items to your existing customers. Can you describe how overall customer spending behaviors have evolved with the overall economy and if sales cycles have changed at all?

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Thank you, George, for the question. Good morning. You know, again, we have a very broad customer base. We have a very broad product offering, and we're blessed to have both. As a result, we're organized in a manner where we're trying to make sure that our customers know everything that we have to offer. They don't always. We've spoken in the past about how going through the pandemic was really, really challenging. One of the positive outputs of that was the fact that our customer base saw the broadness of our offering, and many cases didn't realize we had products and services that we have.

We're focused on that work and trying to provide more value. When we do that, it helps us because when we stop our truck, and the invoice is larger, that's good leverage for us. We're providing more value to the customer, and we're getting leverage in that manner. All that's positive. As far as the sales process being elongated, we're not seeing that at this point. As I mentioned earlier, we are certainly seeing a mix out there, though. You know, some customers are struggling, and some are doing quite well and everything in between. Generally speaking, the customer base continues to head in a positive manner.

George Tong
Senior Research Analyst of Equity Research Business Services, Goldman Sachs

Got it. That's helpful. The upside in revenue this quarter was driven, I think, significantly by new business. Approximately how much of the new business growth in the quarter came from the no-programmer market for uniform rentals?

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Yes, good question, George. No-programmer continues to be a really great opportunity for us. The majority of our new accounts that we sell are in the no-programmer section. We've been focused on that. We train our partners on that. Those that set of prospects sees value in what we provide. As a result, the TAM is massive. That's very exciting for us and we see very nice growth opportunities into the future.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andy Wittmann from R.W. Baird. Please go ahead, Andy.

Andy Wittmann
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, R.W. Baird

Yeah, great. Thanks. I guess I wanted to ask on the First Aid segment, Mike. The margins in particular I think really stood out. You made the comment that you're getting some favorable mix shift as the PPE is rolling out. You know, last quarter's margins were also very good, I think, better than most people expected. It feels like there's something pretty sustainable in the margin rates. Would you agree with that assessment, or is there something in there that we should be aware of as we, you know, come to 2Q fiscal 2024 as a tough comp or something? Maybe just some detail as to what's really driving these margins that are really, frankly a kind of a step function better than what you'd put up in the past.

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Yeah. Andy, you're right. The margins are better than historical. The mix shift has been great. We have a, you know, there's a number of areas where we're able to gain leverage. Certainly, the new business is a very nice lever for us. The change in, I'll call it society, and the focus on health and wellness is a real tailwind for us. As a result of that, you know, cabinet revenue growth is very attractive for us. That affects the mix. We are also finding, you know, I mentioned we've got, we're finding efficiencies in throughout our business, and First Aid is included in that.

You know, whether it's routing technology, we've been on SAP and first aid for a little bit longer, but we're finding efficiencies and we have a very strong supply chain that is finding opportunities to source better and improve our overall operating margins. Andy. Mike, anything you'd like to contribute there?

Mike Hansen
EVP and CFO, Cintas

The only thing I might add is to specifically, Andy, nothing to call out that is one time or short term in nature. It's just that the business is performing very, very well.

Andy Wittmann
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, R.W. Baird

Great. I guess kind of similar question, different segment. On the Uniform Rental and Facility Services segment, obviously, you're getting

A good gross margin leverage, which says a lot about all the things you've already talked about. You mentioned making investments in the business. It appears that the SG&A line in the Uniform Rental segment in particular has been seeing investments there. I was just wondering, maybe you could provide some detail as to what kinds of investments you're making or if it's maybe just still kind of return from COVID and getting some travel and T&E back in there. Maybe just a little detail about SG&A in the rental segment.

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Yeah, Andy, good question. Yeah, we're excited about the gross margin improvement that we're seeing in that business, despite a 20 basis point headwind that we're that we're up against in energy still. You're right. The SG&A is up. We're making investments in the business and appropriately so. Also some G&A, you know, medical costs, workers' comp and what have you, are higher this quarter. There's always some puts and takes as it relates to that. We are guiding towards for the whole year in that business, incrementals in the 20%-30% range.

As I mentioned, that margin expansion is gonna come in a number of ways. Revenue growth, leverage, you know, productivity, which is a broad word, right? There's so many areas where we get productivity improvements and pricing. Yeah, we're focused on improving the margins there, and we'll manage through the G&A investment, the SG&A investment as we move forward.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tim Mulrooney from William Blair. Please go ahead, Tim.

Tim Mulrooney
Group Head–Global Services, William Blair

Good morning, Todd, Mike, Paul. Two questions, one on labor. You know, we've heard from others, other industries and companies that labor availability today still remains somewhat a governor to growth. I mean, has that been the case for you guys? Are you holding back in certain markets due to constraints around qualified labor? Just generally, how would you characterize the labor availability situation today versus, say, last quarter?

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Thanks for the question, Tim. Good morning. You know, as far as labor is concerned, the, I'll call the labor market in totality easier, but not easy. It is still certainly challenging there. We care passionately about how that looks for our customers and how it impacts our customers. I mentioned some are struggling to staff still. As a result, that affects their business, which impacts us. But, excuse me, from the standpoint of Cintas and how we're staffed, that is not affecting our growth rate. It would be more about how our customers are impacted.

I can tell you, it wouldn't go well here if someone said, "I can't grow as fast as you think I should because I can't staff." We figured that out. We think the environment that we provide for our partners where they have great opportunities and a great wage and benefits and great security and great development is a real advantage for us in the marketplace. As far as Cintas staffing, that is not slowing us up. Certainly our customers could be impacted by that to some degree.

Tim Mulrooney
Group Head–Global Services, William Blair

No, that's good. That's good color, Todd. I mean, it's good to know. There are some companies we talk to that are literally dialing back on sales and marketing costs just because they can't, you know, find the labor to support the growth. That's good to know you guys aren't in that situation. One more from me on wage rate inflation. You know, I'm curious what that's running at approximately right now for your, you know, folks actually out on the routes. And how does that compare to your historical averages? Thank you.

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Yes. wage rates, I don't have an exact number to give you, but we start with the answer and work backwards. The answer is we've got to have great people. We've got to have really well-trained and prepared people who can help us be successful and take care of our customers. Is it above historical? Yes, it is above historical. Nevertheless, you know, we're focused on putting the very, very best team out on the field so that we can take great care of our customers and prepare us for the future of this organization.

Operator

Our next question comes from Manav Patnaik from Barclays. Please go ahead, Manav.

Manav Patnaik
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Thank you. I guess just to follow up a little bit, you know, there's a lot of press out there around C-suite anxiety, right? I just wanted to know, you know, historically, I guess how long before that starts slowing all the way down to, you know, kind of your direct customers on the street and how quickly, you know, can you react? Like, you know, your current guidance obviously is through May, so things might, you know, be fine till then. I'm just curious, you know, if there's a, if there's a timing element that we should be considering too.

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Yes, Manav, thanks for the question. Yeah, we always have anxiety, right? It's part of making sure you're sharp. Nevertheless, it is, you know, we do worry about, you know, do our as an economy, do we talk ourselves into pulling back? Does that happen to our customer base? Does that happen-You know, as a ripple effect. But we're not seeing it. We're again, our customer base, it's so broad. Some are doing great, some are not.

In general, we like the direction of our customer base, and we, in many ways, we hope they don't read the press, and they stay focused on taking care of their business and investing for the future. We'll see what that holds and how the Fed handles things and how that might impact the general economy.

Mike Hansen
EVP and CFO, Cintas

Manav, I might add, you know, you go back two and a half years to the beginning of the pandemic, I think we showed that we can be pretty nimble when it comes to our cost structure and adapting to changes in the environment.

Manav Patnaik
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Yeah, that's fair. Mike, maybe if I could just ask a follow-up just on CapEx and free cash flow expectations for the year. Any changes or help there?

Mike Hansen
EVP and CFO, Cintas

Look, what you've seen maybe in the first half of this year is when we grow and we've seen three quarters now straight of double-digit organic growth. Actually, four quarters. So nice acceleration in the performance. When we grow and the volumes are healthy, we certainly invest in the business. That investment can come through in the way of working capital. So you see a little bit more working capital usage in our cash flow statement. That's not necessarily unusual for us when we see an acceleration in the growth rate. We like our cash flow. It will continue to be strong, and this year should not be an exception to that.

That cash flow, I talked a few minutes ago about capital allocation and the cash flow that we've got going this year, will not force us to make choices. We can still do all of the capital allocation that we typically think about. We like where we are.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andrew Steinerman from JP Morgan Securities. Please go ahead, Andrew.

Andrew Steinerman
Equity Research Analyst of Business and Info Services, JPMorgan

Hi, Todd, Mike, and Paul. I wanted to ask a little bit about merchandise amortization. Kind of given the strength of Cintas' new business, which usually has new uniforms going into service, you know, how did merchandise amortization affect gross margins, I mean, rental gross margins in the second quarter? You know, obviously, I know rental gross margins were up, despite any effect of merchandise amortization. Do you expect rental gross margins to be up in the second half of the year-over-year?

Mike Hansen
EVP and CFO, Cintas

Andrew, as it relates to the amortization, certainly, you've seen the growth that I've talked about a few times, that translates into more garments and other products being injected into our in-service inventory. We love that. We love when that happens. We're seeing growth in the amortization, but we're able to leverage that pretty nicely so far. You know our business well. We amortize many of those rental products. We have a good foresight or visibility into what's coming. That means we can plan, we can source, we can increase prices when necessary.

The visibility gives us a nice advantage in terms of how we think about other ways of operating the business. As it relates to the second half of the year, look, I—w e don't typically provide guidance on gross margin specifically. Certainly, the guidance that we've provided contemplates improvement in our operating margins in the second half of the year. The growth that we have on the top line and all of the other initiatives and things we've got going on, they are performing well and enabling us to do that margin improvement even in a difficult period of time.

Andrew Steinerman
Equity Research Analyst of Business and Info Services, JPMorgan

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Heather Balsky from Bank of America. Please go ahead, Heather.

Heather Balsky
Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Your guidance for the rest of the year, I guess, for the back half, implies growth probably on the sales side in the 8%-9% range, which is moderating from what you did in the first half. I'm curious if you could just walk us through kind of where you're assuming there might be some deceleration. Is that just as you come off, lap in the COVID recovery? Maybe where there might be opportunity for upside, just based on the strength you've seen year to date.

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Heather, thanks for the question. Yes. A slight, but still very attractive growth. We like where that is. We're preparing for that. We are certainly up against some tougher comps in the back half, specifically with First Aid and Uniform Direct Sale. We'll be lapping those and w e like the growth levels and, we find them quite attractive and that's what we're, we are preparing for.

Heather Balsky
Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America

Thank you. Do you think, you know, there are areas that you're seeing in your business, you know, you've done well year to date, you've raised your guidance, sort of, I know First Aid & Safety, you know, is v ery strong right now. Other sort of areas of your business, whether it's certain customers like your opportunity in healthcare or other business lines where you're really seeing outperformance and kind of growth beyond your typical run rate.

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Yes, a good question. Again, our customer base is very broad, but I'll tell you this, that our verticals where we're investing, you know, healthcare, hospitality, education, government, are performing quite well, and they're growing at an accretive rate to our growth. We think we chose them wisely and invested in them appropriately. That customer base is doing well. Within that customer base, again, you get a mix. But nevertheless, in general, we like that area and it's growing very attractively for us.

Operator

Our next question comes from Kartik Mehta from Northcoast Research. Please go ahead, Kartik.

Kartik Mehta
Executive Managing Director and Director of Research, Northcoast Research

Thank you. I know you talked about the economy, a few times. I'm wondering, as you look at some of the benchmarks for your business and maybe your customers' businesses, anything that stands out either that is positive that maybe you were anticipating would decline or anything that's negative that you were anticipating, would be the other way?

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Kartik, it's a good question. I continue to talk about how broad our customer base is. You name it, we see it. The scarcity of employee or of, you know, workers is an issue. You know, unemployment is still at a very low level. There's still, I think, 10 million job openings in the U.S. economy. As a result of that, you'll, you know, people are, I think, careful about how they're handling their employees and being judicious about that.

Kartik Mehta
Executive Managing Director and Director of Research, Northcoast Research

Just a last question. Just from an energy standpoint, obviously, fuel prices are coming down. It seems that natural gas prices are coming down as well. Is the headwind you're anticipating from energy prices maybe what you anticipated at the beginning of the year when you gave guidance to now, has that changed at all?

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Yeah. We still see energy as a headwind. When you go to the pump, right now, it is certainly a little bit lower than it was a quarter ago. About 40% of our spend on energy is in natural gas for our production facilities and electric, and that is not heading in the right direction. Natural gas prices are up, and electric prices are up. Certainly, the attention more gets to everybody fills up at the pump for the most part, but not as much focus on natural gas or electric, but we're seeing it, and it's I'm sure it's affecting households as well.

Operator

Our next question comes from Seth Weber from Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead, Seth.

Seth Weber
Equity Research Analyst of Business and Information Services, Wells Fargo Securities

Oh, hey, guys. Good morning and happy holidays. I wanted to ask another margin question. You know, Mike or Todd, I mean, the guidance for this year, the back half, it seems like the guidance kind of implies a higher than normal incremental margin. I think, Todd, you mentioned the uniform business could be 20%-30% incrementals this year. Are we moving into a scenario where incrementals could be higher than, you know, your normal, you know, call it 20%-25% range? Maybe are you more comfortable talking in like a 25%-30% range for the business going forward? Thanks.

Mike Hansen
EVP and CFO, Cintas

Well, we haven't, Seth, we haven't really changed the narrative on that in terms of the 20%-30%. You know, as there are different ebbs and flows within the business, and sometimes there are periods where we are investing maybe a little bit more than in other quarters, et cetera. You know, Todd's focused on the full year results and the longer term results. There can be ups and downs. Certainly, based on our guidance, we are contemplating a margin improvement in the back half of the year. I don't know that it's anything that we're ready to say is a new norm.

It's just simply we look at the year and say, "We've got some really good incremental margins in that 20%-30% range that will cause the full year margins to go up." But I wouldn't look at it as a new normal type of a thing. It's just simply, there are ebbs and flows within the business and timing of investments, et cetera.

Seth Weber
Equity Research Analyst of Business and Information Services, Wells Fargo Securities

Okay. That's helpful. Thanks. Then just, you know, the Fire business, your organic growth in the Fire business continues to be in this sort of mid to high teens range. Is that a sustainable number, do you feel like, for Fire? Just sort of maybe any color on really what's driving that unusually strong organic growth? Thanks.

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Yes, Seth. I'll take that one. We love the Fire business. It's a very attractive business for us. It's the only business we're in where every business legally has to comply with the local laws around it. The TAM is absolutely massive. Our sales team is doing really well, and we're selling into additional customers. We're selling more into our existing customers. Got a great offering. We really like our position in the marketplace, and the team's doing a heck of a job. Yeah, we would, you know, we would like to continue to grow that business at double-digit rates.

Can it achieve the levels at where we are today? That would be outstanding. Certainly double digits is our focus for that business.

Seth Weber
Equity Research Analyst of Business and Information Services, Wells Fargo Securities

Got it. Okay. Thank you, guys. Happy holidays.

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Shlomo Rosenbaum from Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead, Shlomo.

Shlomo Rosenbaum
Managing Director, Stifel Nicolaus

Hi. Thank you very much. I want to get a little follow-up on some of the questions on client hiring, which obviously could impact Cintas volumes. Do you feel like you really sell at a level in the organization that you get kind of an advanced look at the hiring plans, or is it really kind of you monitor it as it happens? Like concurrent, you need to react because clients will just kind of add or subtract people, kind of in the moment, but you don't, you know, it's not that you're getting a heads-up on that. Just trying to understand, like, your view. Obviously, it's a very broad client base, but just in more generalities. There have been any changes.

You used to talk about kind of an add stops metric, and I'm wondering if there's anything materially different in what that would look like now?

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Shlomo, great question. It really depends upon our view of what the staffing levels of our customers will be. It really depends upon where our relationship is. Some they'll share us, with us, "Hey, calendar 2023, here's what we're thinking." Others, they don't, depending upon our relationship levels or their planning level. In that case, it's a little bit more reactive. You name it, we have that type of experience where it's very transparent and we have a good, we can see around the corner with our expectations there. Some are just very reactive and wait to see what's going on with their customers.

But generally speaking, with add stops, I would say, we see our experiences continues and the patterns that we have in the past. I mentioned earlier that, you know, I don't know, you know, certainly Q1— I'm speaking of the economy. Q1, Q2 was GDP shrunk. Q3 was slightly positive. We'll see what Q4 holds in store for GDP. Tough to tell if we're in a technical recession or if we're not, and what calendar 2023 holds in store for us. But the employment situation in the U.S. is, it's still tough to get people. As I mentioned, there's 10 million job openings. We'll see if that continues to decline.

We're trying to make sure that we're positioned to grow. As Mike mentioned, if the economy affects our customer base in a very negative manner, we'll be prepared to pivot and manage our cost structure appropriately. We're planning on being successful in whatever the economic environment brings to us.

Shlomo Rosenbaum
Managing Director, Stifel Nicolaus

Thank you. Just one follow-up on the pricing. Is it, kind of normal now for the clients to expect these pricing increases, or is it, are you getting any material pushback on them as this time is going on?

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Well, Shlomo, you know, as I mentioned in our prepared remarks, you know, pricing has always been a component of our growth, sans a, you know, what we went through with some serious economic turbulence with COVID-19 and what have you. That being said, we're planning on growing our business most attractively through volume growth and getting leverage there and planning on growing margins via leverage on that revenue growth and finding efficiencies in our business. That being said, it's a very competitive environment.

You know, as we talk to our customers, they certainly challenge us and they want us to find efficiencies in our business and not just pass along cost to them. That's what we're focused on.

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Schneeberger from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead, Scott.

Scott Schneeberger
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Oppenheimer

Thanks very much. Good morning. Happy holidays, everyone. For first question, in uniform rental, I'm just curious about the winning business. You guys have obviously highlighted penetration of existing customers, strong volume growth, new customers. Could you speak to what is, you know, program versus what is competitively won? Is there a lot of that activity right now of competitively won? If you could just kind of differentiate what you're seeing with large customers versus maybe small and mid-size, in the context of that question. Thanks.

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Yeah, Scott, I'll start. Mike, if you want to contribute on this subject there. You know, no, we sell a lot of new programmers. Certainly we do take business from our competitors. That's, we find that there's so many businesses out there that say, "Wow, I didn't realize that you would serve a business of my size," or, "I didn't realize you had those types of products and services." They see great value in what we do. We're very focused on that. As far as the customer base, you know, you know, the larger customers, some of them are struggling.

Smaller ones are certainly some of them are struggling. I would say generally speaking, the smaller ones are probably under a little bit more pressure just because it's tough to attract, retain staff, pay people, and at the levels that you have to be competitive in the marketplace. That's kind of a generalization that may not be completely fair, and I could give you plenty of examples of smaller businesses that are thriving. That's kind of a generalization I thought I might share with you.

Scott Schneeberger
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Oppenheimer

Great. Thanks. Then as a follow-up, specifically Uniform Direct Sales, I think it was about 33%-34% organic growth in the quarter, very strong. I heard you mention on an earlier question that would be a segment facing some tougher comps in the back half of the fiscal year. Can you just speak to kind of what the business activity has been there? What's driving the strong growth right now? What type of customers? Has it been, you know, particularly lumpy or has it been just a solid broad base versus, you know, maybe just one or two big customer wins? Just a little bit more elaboration on that business line. Thanks.

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Sure. Good question. Very broad-based. It's not, you know, one customer or a couple of customers. It's, it's very broad-based. When you think about that area, certainly hospitality is a big component of it, but there's other customers that are, you know, national in scope type customers. You know, hospitality specifically I'll, I'll speak to. Yeah, they're struggling to staff, but there's a lot of demand out there in the hospitality sector. As a result, they need help.

You know, when you think of that, when they're struggling to staff, you know, and they have to provide products and services, we've become a very attractive opportunity for them to sole source and to provide products that they can get quickly and that are very attractive and allow them to provide the proper guest experience that they wanna provide for their patrons.

Operator

Our next question comes from Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, Toni.

Toni Kaplan
Executive Director of Equity Research and Lead Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thanks very much. wanted to ask a follow-up on pricing. I know you've been sort of putting through a higher level of price than normal recently. Now it sounds like, you know, obviously you've mentioned a couple of times that volume's gonna be a bigger driver to growth. I guess my question is pricing going to be more of a normal increase versus prior years? You know, based on, you know, like, the challenging macro, although you said you're not seeing it yet, like, is it gonna be lower than normal or roughly around sort of a normal year for pricing in calendar 2023?

Todd Schneider
President and CEO, Cintas

Yeah, Toni, a good question. You know, as we think about pricing in the future, it certainly is above historical today. It's tough to predict what inflation holds in the future. Presuming that that comes down, I'd say you'd see us closer to historical from a price adjustments. It really depends upon, you know, what happens with the Fed, what happens with the economy, what happens with wage pressures. There's so many inputs, that one's tough to predict, we're watching it very closely.

Toni Kaplan
Executive Director of Equity Research and Lead Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. When you think about the margin expansion implied, and you mentioned sort of higher margin expansion in the back half of the year, is that? Like, I guess how much of it is a result of, like, energy costs coming down from prior levels or, maybe inflation, you know, having reached its peak and coming down? Like, I guess how much of it is that versus, you know, scale or initiatives? If you could give any sort of breakdown or examples of where the margin expansion will come from. Thanks.

Mike Hansen
EVP and CFO, Cintas

Toni, I would say it comes from a lot of different places, and it's hard to put a number on any particular one of them. But it, you know, a couple examples. Energy, we've kind of looked at that, as Todd mentioned earlier. Still is a little bit of a headwind going forward. We're not necessarily expecting we'll get a bunch of energy benefit in the second half of the year. Our revenue growth has been really strong and the performance, the momentum has been good, and that certainly will continue to help in the second half of the year.

When we grow at real nice levels like we've guided towards and like we've had in the first half of the year, that always helps our ability to drive better margins. We've talked over the last year or so about important initiatives that we have. Those remain and continue to do well, and those are things like our routing improvements through our Smart Truck initiative. We have more of those, whether it is sourcing initiatives that Todd touched on in First Aid or others. Those initiatives become very important to us, too.

Then there are just some timing of things, maybe some investment in the first half of the year, that was really helping propel our growth and continue our momentum that may not be at the same type of level in the second half of the year. It's a lot of those different pieces that kind of fall together. It's, you know, it's hard to put numbers on every single one of those.

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions. I would like to turn the call back to Paul for closing remarks.

Paul Adler
VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer, Cintas

All right. Well, thank you for joining us this morning. We will issue our third quarter of fiscal 2023 financial results in late March, and we look forward to speaking with you again at that time. Take care.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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