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Earnings Call: Q4 2013

Jan 31, 2014

Operator

Good morning. My name is Jonathan, and I will be your conference facilitator today. Welcome to Chevron's fourth quarter 2013 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session and instructions will be given at that time. If anyone should require assistance during the conference call, please press star then zero on your touch-tone telephone. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the conference call over to the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Chevron Corporation, Mr. John Watson. Please go ahead.

John Watson
Chairman and CEO, Chevron

Thank you, Jonathan, welcome to everyone to Chevron's fourth quarter earnings conference call and webcast. On the call with me today are Pat Yarrington, our Chief Financial Officer, and Jeff Gustavson, who is our General Manager of Investor Relations. We'll refer to slides that are available on Chevron's website. Before we get started, please be reminded that this presentation contains estimates, projections, and other forward-looking statements. We ask that you review the detailed cautionary statement on Slide two. Turning to Slide three, I want to begin by highlighting some of our strategic accomplishments for the year. We had our lowest-ever days away from work rate, continuing our improvement over several years now. We've been the industry leader on this metric since 2010. Our financial performance in 2013 was solid.

Once competition results are fully analyzed, we expect to once again post the highest upstream cash and earnings margins per barrel compared to a broad set of peer competitors. Our strong cash flows and balance sheet allowed us to fund our capital program and capture new resource opportunities while maintaining competitive shareholder distributions. In our downstream business, we started commercial operations of a 53,000 barrel per day vacuum gas oil FCC unit at the 50%-owned Yeosu Refinery in South Korea. We made significant progress on the construction of a 25,000 barrel per day premium base oil plant at the Pascagoula Mississippi Refinery here in the U.S. We expect to reach mechanical completions toward the end of the first quarter and will then ramp up to full capacity during the second quarter. In addition, we've also advanced our Oronite expansion project in Singapore.

Our CP Chem affiliate, our 50%-owned chemicals joint venture, announced final investment decision on a $6 billion U.S. Gulf Coast petrochemical project. In our upstream business, we achieved startup and first shipment from Angola LNG. Production began at the Papa-Terra project in Brazil. We also start up North Rankin 2 in Australia, which maintains production capacity at the Northwest Shelf LNG project. We made substantial progress on our major capital projects. At the end of January, Gorgon is currently about 76% complete, while Wheatstone is about 27% complete. Similar to prior quarters, we have posted a number of photos highlighting our construction projects on these two important facilities on our Chevron investor webpage located at chevron.com. We also continued construction activities for our projects in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico.

The Jack/St. Malo hull is now moored at its offshore location and is on schedule for startup later this year. Big Foot is expected to be towed to location in the third quarter with expected startup next year. We reached final investment decision for the Alder developments in the U.K. North Sea as well as for Moho Nord in the Republic of the Congo. We had a very busy year from a resource capture standpoint, successfully acquiring an interest in a discovered resource opportunity in Argentina to develop and explore the Vaca Muerta shale. We also closed our entry into the Kitimat LNG project in Western Canada, where the resources will come from new positions in the Horn River and Liard Basins.

We acquired additional shale and tight resource acreage in the Cooper Basin in Australia and the Duvernay Basin in Canada, the Permian Basin in the U.S., as well as in the Ukraine. We also grew our exploration portfolio by acquiring positions in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, Australia, Brazil, Morocco, and in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. Our one-year reserve replacement was 85%, bringing our three-year replacement ratio to 123%. We're proud of our performance this past year. With that, I'll turn it over to Pat, who will take you through the financial results. Pat?

Patricia E. Yarrington
VP and CFO, Chevron

Okay. Thank you, John. Slide four provides an overview of our financial performance. The company's fourth quarter earnings were $4.9 billion, or $2.57 per diluted share. For the year, earnings were $21.4 billion. This equates to $11.09 per diluted share. Return on capital employed for the year was 13.5%, and our debt ratio at year-end was 12%. 2013 marked our 26th consecutive annual dividend increase with an 11% growth in the quarterly rate. This demonstrates our confidence in our future performance and is consistent with our priority of rewarding shareholders with sustained and strong dividend growth. In the fourth quarter, we repurchased $1.25 billion of our shares, bringing the full-year share repurchase total to $5 billion. In the first quarter of 2014, we expect to repurchase the same amount. Finally, Chevron's 2013 total shareholder return was 19.2%.

We continue to lead our peer group on total shareholder returns for the three-year, five-year, and 10-year period. Turning to Slide five, cash generated from operations was $10.5 billion during the fourth quarter. This was the strongest cash generation quarter of the year. For the full year, cash from operations totaled $35 billion, reflecting the continued cash-generating strength of our portfolio. Cash capital expenditures were $11.6 billion during the quarter and $38 billion for the full year. We had a very successful year in our resource acquisition efforts, as John just mentioned. At year-end, our cash balances totaled $16.5 billion, giving us a net debt position of $4 billion. The company continues to move towards a more traditional capital structure. Turning to Slide six, I'll compare results for the fourth quarter 2013 with the third quarter 2013.

As a reminder, our earnings release compares fourth quarter 2013 with the same quarter a year ago. Fourth quarter earnings were $4.9 billion, $20 million lower than the third quarter results. Upstream earnings were down $240 million, reflecting lower liquids realizations and higher exploration and operating expenses. Partially offsetting were favorable foreign exchange movements of $490 million. Downstream results edged up $10 million between quarters. Higher margins and favorable inventory effects were mostly offset by the absence of gains on asset transactions and higher operating expenses. The variance in the other bar largely reflects a favorable swing in corporate tax items during the quarter. On slide seven, our U.S. upstream earnings for the fourth quarter were $223 million lower than third quarter's results. Lower realizations decreased earnings by $165 million, consistent with the decline in U.S. crude oil price indicators.

Lower production volumes reduced earnings by $35 million, mainly due to planned maintenance activity in the Gulf of Mexico and cold weather disruptions in the Mid-Continent region. The other bar reflects a number of unrelated items, including higher operating expenses and unfavorable tax impacts, partially offset by lower exploration and DD&A expenses. Turning to slide eight, international upstream results were just $17 million lower than last quarter's results. Realizations decreased earnings by $60 million, consistent with the decline in Brent prices between quarters. Higher exploration expenses, mainly driven by the write-off of an exploration well offshore Canada and higher geological and geophysical expenses across multiple areas, decreased earnings by $190 million. A combination of higher operating expenses and DD&A lowered earnings $150 million between periods. The other bar reflects a number of unrelated items, including the absence of asset sale gains and favorable tax effects from the prior quarter.

A favorable swing in foreign currency effects increased earnings by $490 million. The fourth quarter had a gain of about $300 million compared to a loss of about $190 million in the third quarter. Slide nine summarizes the quarterly change in Chevron's worldwide net oil equivalent production. Production declined 9,000 barrels a day between quarters. Our shale and tight assets contributed 7,000 barrels a day, mainly from new production in the Marcellus region in the U.S. and Vaca Muerta in Argentina. External constraints lowered fourth-quarter production by 12,000 barrels a day, reflecting lower demand in Thailand and in Bangladesh, as well as weather-related disruptions in the U.S. The base business and other bar includes the impact of normal field declines, which are partially offset by higher production from Agbami in Nigeria. Slide 10 compares full-year 2013 net oil equivalent production to that of 2012.

Production declined by 13,000 barrels per day in 2013. Production averaged 2.6 million barrels per day for the year, 98% of our original guidance. This was driven primarily by the slower ramp-up at Angola LNG, more expensive turnaround activities, and lower gas demand than anticipated in several countries. Base business declines and asset sales reduced production by 49,000 barrels per day between years. Our base business operations delivered strong performance for 2013. Our base decline rate was lower than our target of 4%, providing significant barrels and value. Growing volumes from our shale and tight resources in the Permian and in the Marcellus regions in the U.S. contributed 25,000 barrels per day. Our shale and tight production grew more than 15% in 2013.

Incremental production from our major capital projects contributed 11,000 barrels per day, driven by the Angola LNG startup, first oil from Papa-Terra in Brazil, and the ramp-up of production at the Usan field in Nigeria. Turning now to slide 11. U.S. downstream results were up $16 million between periods. Stronger margins increased earnings by $95 million, mainly due to lower crude costs. West Coast refining margins also benefited from the completion of planned maintenance activity in the third quarter at our El Segundo, California refinery. Gains on asset sales contributed about $90 million less in the fourth quarter than the third quarter. The other bar reflects a number of unrelated items of smaller impact. On slide 12, international downstream earnings were nearly flat between quarters. Margins improved earnings by $20 million.

Higher refining margins in Canada on lower crude costs and improved marketing margins in Australia were partially offset by lower refining margins in Asia, where we've seen weaker demand and ample supply. Higher operating expenses decreased earnings by $60 million, principally for maintenance, repairs, and transportation. The other bar includes a number of unrelated items, including favorable year-end LIFO impacts, partially offset by lower trading results and an unfavorable swing in foreign exchange impacts. Slide 13 covers all other. Fourth-quarter net charges were $312 million compared to $522 million in the third quarter, a decrease of $210 million between periods. A favorable swing in corporate tax items resulted in $162 million benefit to earnings, while corporate costs were $48 million lower this quarter. For the full year, this segment had net charges of $1.6 billion, putting us in the lower end of our $400-