CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)
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Apr 27, 2026, 2:51 PM EDT - Market open
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Noble Capital Markets Emerging Growth Virtual Investor Conference

Oct 9, 2025

Joe Gomes
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, NOBLE Capital

I am Joe Gomes, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at NOBLE Capital. Today, I have the pleasure of introducing CoreCivic Inc. Following the presentation, we will have some time for Q&A. CoreCivic is a diversified government solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. The company provides a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, and a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America's recidivism crisis and government real estate solutions. With us today from CoreCivic is David Garfinkle, Chief Financial Officer, and Jeb Bachmann, Managing Director of Investor Relations. With that, I'm going to turn it over to the company. The floor is yours, David.

David Garfinkle
CFO, CoreCivic

Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everybody. I appreciate your participation. Thank you, Joe, for letting us participate in your conference. I really appreciate your support of the company and the stories. It's informative that you are able to tell our investors about our company. We were formed in 1983. We've got about $2.9 billion in total assets, of that, $2.3 billion in real estate. A very real estate-intensive company. Our 2024 revenue is about $2 billion, and adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was about $331 million. Our revenue comprised about 51% federal, that's about 30% ICE, which has been our largest customer for over a decade. That's Immigration and Customs Enforcement. About 20% of our revenue is from the U.S. Marshals Service. The remaining revenue, 41%, comes from state customers, and about 8% comes from local and other customers.

100% of our business, 100% of our revenue comes from government agencies. Market capitalization is about $2 billion. We have 100% of our operations in the domestic United States, as shown on the slide on page three. We operate in three different segments, what we call our safety segment, where we provide corrections, detention services. We've been providing those services in our safety portfolio since the founding of the company in 1983. We've got 44 facilities, about 67,000 beds. 92% of our NOI, our net operating income, comes from this segment. It is the largest segment. It also is the segment that has the largest near-term opportunity, which we'll get to later in the presentation. Our second segment is our community segment. That's comprised of about 21 residential reentry facilities, more commonly known as halfway houses.

We've got about 4,000 beds in that portfolio, and it makes up about 5% of our NOI. Lastly, we've got a portfolio we call our property segment. Five facilities leased to state government agencies, about 7,800 beds in that segment, and that is about 3% of our NOI. The industry, private prison industry on slide four, private prisons make up less than 8% of the nation's prison population. There is a little bit of a misunderstanding. Most people think it's much higher than that. Private prison companies only house about slightly less than 8% of the nation's prison populations. CoreCivic is the largest owner of correctional and detention facilities in the United States. About 57% of all owned corrections and detention beds in total are owned and managed by CoreCivic. We manage about 41% of all privately managed beds. On the federal side, the Federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement, U.S.

Marshals Service, they don't own their own detention capacity, so most of it's outsourced. The private sector manages about 83% of all ICE beds in the United States. CoreCivic manages about 27% of total ICE populations. On the U.S. Marshals side, they outsource about 85% of their detention capacity to the private sector. I'm sorry, they outsource 84% of their detention populations. The private sector manages about 34% of those beds. CoreCivic manages about 13% of the total U.S. Marshals populations. Our historical occupancy on slide five can show, you know, we did see a significant reduction during the pandemic era, but we're recovering to pre-pandemic populations. In the second quarter, around 77% occupancy. Plenty of bed capacity to accommodate additional growth.

I'll flip it over here to Jeb to kind of talk about some opportunities, particularly with ICE, that can utilize, that we expect and already has resulted in the utilization of some of our occupancy. Jeb?

Jeb Bachmann
Managing Director of Investor Relations, CoreCivic

Thanks, Dave. If you're moving over to slide six, you can look at a chart or a table that shows our idle facilities and kind of the revenue we would expect to potentially generate from those idle facilities once they are brought online. I will note that this table at the top, we have about four of those that are in the process of being reactivated. A total of five this year. We had Dilley at the beginning of the year. We had West Tennessee that we announced right after Q2 earnings. Midwest Regional, Cal City, and Diamondback are all the most recent contract awards. Prior to those announcements, we had about 13,419 beds available for reactivation to meet ICE's needs. I think post all those contract awards, we're down to maybe around 9,000 beds that we could still add to capacity needs down the road.

If you look to the middle of that table, you'll see what we used for our compensated mandate of $28.02 to come up with the potential revenue generation from those idle beds. We'll note that $28.02 we believe is a conservative number. I think that's kind of a company-wide average for our compensated mandate that includes state contracts as well, which are typically lower than the federal contracts. That number should be higher going forward. Below that, we wanted to show what additional capacity we had for facilities that are already currently contracted but have available beds still at those facilities. That's about 3,200 beds available. We're also using, I think, even a more conservative number by using that $28.02. Keep in mind that these are facilities that don't need reactivation fees.

You factor in that, in addition to that, they would be contracted with the federal government or ICE, which are higher margins. That number would be certainly north of $28.02. There's a lot of upside here within our idle facilities. We're starting to bring a lot of that value forward with the contracting of five that we talked about just a little while ago. Moving over to slide seven, just wanted to give you a quick overview of where the opportunities are arising for us. As you can see on the chart on the bottom left, with the election of Donald Trump to the presidency, the border arrests have gone down, whereas the ICE arrests have gone up. I think you're going to see that trend continue. I think recently you saw a note that border apprehensions are at their historic lows for the past at least few decades.

There's more of an intention on interior enforcement. That's where we think a lot of the opportunity exists to meet the demands of ICE. That's why we expect our facilities to continue to generate interest, not only ones that we currently have contracted, potentially new contracts down the road as ICE needs bed capacity. Moving over to slide eight, we're looking at the private sector advantages versus alternative beds. I know some of the weight on the stock recently, at least in our opinion, has been kind of this idea or mindset that the Alcatrazes, the speedway slammers of the world that are being done by the individual states would take away business. In our mind, those soft-sided facilities are much more cost-prohibitive versus our facilities that are already constructed.

In addition to being, you know, I want to say, you know, have the facilities that have the infrastructure needed to help those, the inmates, detention population, you know, be in a better situation. I wanted to point out that I think our alternatives are cheaper and are better longer term to meet the needs of ICE. Moving over to acquisition opportunities, while we do think that these are a great way to invest capital, I do want to point out that I think at this point, an acquisition like Farmville that we did back in July of this year, they're few and far between these kinds of opportunities. This was something that came up and generated a return on investment that was a bit higher than what we typically would shoot for in that kind of 13%- 15% range.

It was certainly something we wanted to take advantage of. We have the balance sheet to be able to take advantage of these opportunities. Again, I think these are more of a one-off. Just don't see a lot of these opportunities out there. Understanding where we target our ROI, we think at this point, we're probably going to look more at stock buybacks versus acquisitions. I'll let Dave speak to that more in a second there.

David Garfinkle
CFO, CoreCivic

Great. Jeb, I'll take this slide 10. So, you know, history of durable earnings and cash flows through multiple administrations. As I mentioned earlier, I've been in business over 40 years from the 1983. So, through both Democratic and Republican administrations, you can see our EBITDA in margins. You do see a dip during the COVID era, border, and that was, you know, across the board, but mostly from ICE, where ICE was prohibiting people to come into the United States to claim asylum under a policy known as Title 42 that denied entry into the U.S. to asylum seekers and anyone crossing the border without proper documentation or authority in an effort to contain the spread of COVID-19. That came to an end in May 2023. You've seen increases in populations, not just at states, but mainly with ICE since that time period in May of 2023.

We do have a 97% contract retention rate that's on all beds over the past five years. Even though our governments can exit their contracts for convenience or non-appropriation of funds, we have a history of 97% contract renewal rates. On slide 11, you can see our quarterly financials. We're showing strong growth in 2025. Our adjusted EBITDA guidance is that we released in the second quarter earnings release. That is the $368 million. That's up 11% from 2024 of $330.8 million. As Jeb mentioned, we've entered into new contracts to activate five idle facilities, 8,800 beds with $500 million of revenue, sets us up for really strong growth in 2026. Balance sheet is in great shape. Slide 13. Since June of 2020, we've repaid $1.3 billion of debt. That came on the heels of us converting from a REIT to a traditional C corporation in August 2020.

We announced that conversion, and we reset our leverage target to 2.25x -2.75x . That's down from around 4x at that period of time. We've made great progress in reducing our leverage. That was around 4x to 2.3 x at the end of the second quarter. We've got some upgrades from the rating agencies. We're rated BB by S&P, Ba2 by Moody's. Moody's just upgraded that to Ba2 July 18th on industry tailwinds. Significant balance sheet flexibility. As I mentioned, 2.3 x leverage using the trailing 12 months EBITDA at June 30th, 2025. We've got $347 million of liquidity. That's cash on hand and capacity under our revolving credit facility. We have opportunity. We can take advantage of opportunities like the Farmville acquisition Jeb just mentioned, but not a lot of opportunities like that in the marketplace, which there were.

We do those all day long. Really, our cash flow prioritization is on share repurchases. As you can see on slide 15, we've got a $500 million share authorization. We have purchased $81 million in the first half of 2025. As of June 30th, we had $237.9 million of remaining share repurchases under that authorization. We will continue to execute share repurchases. It's the highest return on the capital that we can deploy because of there not being opportunities like the Farmville acquisition that Jeb mentioned. If the stock price doesn't recover, we'll be more aggressive in repurchasing shares now that we've got really good visibility on the cash flows and EBITDA in 2026. Last thing we wanted to point out before we open up the Q&A, we do have a CEO succession plan occurring. We've got Patrick Swindle. He's an 18-year veteran with CoreCivic.

He's been exposed to all areas of the company, started in our Treasury Department, moved over to Strategic Development, which includes M&A activities. Most recently, he was the Chief Operating Officer of the company. He was promoted to President January 1st of this year, January 1st, 2025. That was kind of with an expectation that he would ultimately be named CEO when our current CEO, Damon Hininger, opted to step down. That was at Damon's discussions with the board, encouraging the board to go through a succession plan to name a President. That's actually what Damon did before he became CEO. He was President for about a year. We're kind of following that same playbook with Patrick being promoted to President January 1st, 2025. In August, we announced he would be elevated to the CEO position January 1st of 2026.

When Damon has decided to step down, Damon will be under a transition agreement for about a year and a quarter through March 2027. We really see a seamless transition. As I mentioned, Patrick, an 18-year veteran with the company, probably doesn't need a lot of that transition guidance, but it's nice to know Damon's there should we need his support and guidance. With that, Joe, I'll turn it back to you to open up for Q&A.

Joe Gomes
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, NOBLE Capital

Thanks, David and Jeb. Great insightful presentation. Let's go to some questions. I'm going to start off one here. There's been some recent press about the pace of ICE detentions. Can you comment on the pace of detentions at CoreCivic facilities? Do you think some of the, maybe the slowing of this pace that the press is talking about is maybe a focus by ICE in terms of their hiring of new employees? That 10,000, I think they're looking to add.

David Garfinkle
CFO, CoreCivic

Yeah, great question. I mean, we've had a really good year. If you were to go back to the beginning of the year and say we were going to be activating five of our previously idle facilities, including two of our largest in the Diamondback facility in Oklahoma and our California City facility, it would be, I'd say it'd be a great year. It really has been a great year. We've just announced longer-term contracts at the Midwest Regional Reception Center in Kansas, our California City facility, and our Diamondback facility here within the past few weeks. The pace really has been very, very active from ICE, and those discussions have been active since the administration took over in January. Detention populations are at an all-time high. I think the most recent data was around 59,000, almost around close to 60,000 at the end of September.

That would have been an all-time high, but for a $61,000 detainee number at the end of June. They're hitting all-time highs on their number of detention populations nationwide. As you mentioned, I think the next wave will come as they bring on additional ICE agents. As you mentioned, they're looking to hire 10,000 ICE agents. They've got plenty of funding under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. That One Big Beautiful Bill Act provides $45 billion of funding for detention bed capacity. They have a stated goal of getting up to 100,000 detention beds. I don't know if that happens by the end of the year, whether that happens sooner or goes into 2026. The conversations we continue to have with ICE are that that's still their intention. If they continue to increase their detention populations, we could certainly see some additional contracting activity.

We've just activated, I guess, close to 6,400 beds that are available to ICE. That will take some time to absorb. They've got that capacity as they increase their detention populations to use our facilities. As Jeb mentioned earlier in the presentation, we believe that we're the low-cost provider. We provide high-quality services, meet all the federal detention standards. They do continue to seek alternative capacity as well. I think it's a both/and. If they're going to get to 100,000 detention beds, there's really not enough detention bed capacity in the private sector to accommodate that level of demand. We'll continue to see ICE pursue detention capacity from all sources, including companies like CoreCivic.

Joe Gomes
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, NOBLE Capital

Okay. You talked about the facilities that you are activating or have activated here recently. Maybe give a little more insight as to how that's proceeding. What's the typical timeline to activate a facility? I know one of the key elements here is staffing. How is that all proceeding?

David Garfinkle
CFO, CoreCivic

Yeah, another great question. During our negotiations with ICE for these facilities, which they don't typically compete us with other providers, it's usually a, let's go to CoreCivic, let's talk about a cost justification process. In those cost justifications, we've provided what we hope to be a market-clearing wage rate, because you're right, that is the biggest risk we face when ramping up an idle facility is finding additional staff. We are hiring a lot of staff right now at these facilities to complete the activations, to get the staff in place so that we can begin taking in populations. We've already begun taking on populations at our California City Immigration Processing Center and our West Tennessee Detention Center. We are ramping up our Diamondback facility. That was the latest contract announcement. These facilities will probably be ramping up between now and the end of the first quarter of 2026.

Diamondback and California City probably won't be completed until the second quarter of 2026. So far, knock on wood and keep fingers crossed, hiring activity is very robust and we've been very successful at hiring staff and we hope to be in position to continue those activations, like I said, to complete them by some by Q1 and others by Q2 of '26.

Joe Gomes
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, NOBLE Capital

Okay. Now, as everybody knows, we're in the midst of another federal government shutdown. Does that have any impact on the business?

David Garfinkle
CFO, CoreCivic

Yeah, it really doesn't. We are an essential governmental service provider, so we obviously have to keep our correctional and detention facilities operating during a government shutdown. The only impact we would see, while our services are deemed essential governmental services, is the payment for our services is not deemed essential by the government. The folks that typically send us payment for our services are on furlough. When the government resumes operations, they compensate us back retroactively for all the services that we've been performing with interest. It's a short-term liquidity blip that we don't collect our revenue until the government resumes operations. Obviously, everything else from an operational perspective continues going on as if there is no government shutdown.

Joe Gomes
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, NOBLE Capital

Okay. Now, you mentioned the Farmville acquisition. Can you talk a little bit more about that? You know, where, why, how is that proceeding?

David Garfinkle
CFO, CoreCivic

Yeah, we're familiar with that facility. It had been marketed several years ago, and we just couldn't get comfortable with the price. It came up for sale earlier this year. We participated in the process. The family that was operating it looked at it again. We did our due diligence on it. As you can imagine, we had the benefit of having ICE as the customer there. They've had that contract in place since 2010, since that facility was constructed. That made it unique with other opportunities. A lot of the other opportunities in the marketplace are idle facilities, and most of them don't fit the needs design-wise or the construction wasn't intended for a detention population. This one had a contract in place since it was constructed in 2010. The contract expires in 2029. During the due diligence process, we did the physical plant assessment.

We obviously talked with ICE about how do you like the location. It is in Farmville, Virginia. All positive feedback on their desire to continue using the facility. It's in a critical location for them, intending to use that facility for the indefinite future. The price was right. As I think Jeb mentioned, we target 13%- 15% when we're in M&A mode, as we were years ago. That's a pre-tax unlevered ROI. This was slightly better than that. It certainly paired up well against our share repurchase program, was more accretive than our share repurchase program. All the stars aligned, all the pieces were in place for us to complete that acquisition. Accretive day one, will generate about $40 million in annual revenue. That transition, cutting over systems, all of our systems are in place. All the accounting is done.

The transition was pretty seamless, which can be difficult during certain acquisitions. This one was completed fairly quickly. It's been a great acquisition. We're only a few months into it, but it's certainly performing as we expected, if not better. We welcome all those employees to the CoreCivic team, and that's gone well and earned a great warden there. It's just been a one-off. It's kind of a unicorn. If there were more like that, we'd be doing them all day long. It was a great use of our capital.

Joe Gomes
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, NOBLE Capital

Great. Let's switch gears here for a second. You mentioned the buyback and how much the company has been doing here. I know the goal, the leverage is 2.75x . Outside of trying to stay within that, is there anything else that you look at before you do the buybacks?

David Garfinkle
CFO, CoreCivic

Yeah, certainly valuation. I mean, with the amount of contracts that we've signed here, as we just described, we have really good visibility into 2026 cash flows. Our price is not, we don't believe, has responded appropriately. We were already buying back shares at the price before we announced those contracts. One might say the price reflected it was already baked into the price. If you look at our historical valuation, if you use an enterprise value to adjusted EBITDA multiple, it's typically 8x- 10x . We're probably trading the upper sixes, maybe lower sevens. We don't think that the valuation reflects the opportunities that we've not only seen and have actually signed contracts for, but the opportunities we see to continue to increase our occupancy. We didn't talk about state populations much, but we see an opportunity to, we're already seeing state populations increase.

Some states that we're not even contracting with today may be looking to send state populations out of state because they either can't hire staff or their facilities are overcrowded. The opportunity is really not reflected in the price of the stock. I love being in the position where we're in, where we have an authorization, we have plenty of leverage capacity, balance sheet flexibility. That's really where our cash flow is going right now is toward that buyback, and it will get more aggressive if the stock doesn't respond.

Joe Gomes
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, NOBLE Capital

Great. David and Jeb, we've come to the end of our allotted time. We covered a lot of ground today and got significant insight into what CoreCivic does, its markets, and opportunities. We appreciate you taking the time to participate in our conference, and we wish you and the company the best in the future. Thanks again.

Jeb Bachmann
Managing Director of Investor Relations, CoreCivic

Thank you.

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