Welcome back, everyone. Continuing on here with the AutoTrak at the 2024 UBS Industrials Conference. Pleased to have American Axle next up here with us. We have Shannon Curry, VP and Treasurer, and David Lim from Investor Relations. I think David wanted to make just a brief disclaimer comment.
Yeah, yeah. Fantastic conference. Always enjoy being here. But we do want to tell all of you to look to our forward-looking statements. That's on AAM.com on the IR site. And with that, you know, let's kick it off.
Great. Yeah, let's kick it off. So, you know, obviously, a very volatile year, let's say, to say the least in automotive, and you know, since we are sort of approaching, you know, year-end, I think I got my, like, Spotify Wrapped, you know, list here. Sort of feeling a little bit nostalgic. I'm wondering if you could sort of maybe just, you know, take a step back and assess, you know, what you think went well for American Axle in a very challenging year and where there are still some, you know, areas to sort of work on.
Gotcha.
Yeah. So I'll start with that. What's gone well? I think we've seen. We've been really focused on some operational improvements in our plants. We've seen sequential margin improvement quarter- over- quarter. We've seen stabilization in the supply chain. And also in our workforce and some of the hourly labor availability issues that we've been facing are certainly still there, but we're seeing stabilization, and that's also leading to some of the margin improvement that we're seeing, particularly in our metal-forming sites. So, I think we're feeling positive about the operating momentum that we have going into the end of the year.
Mm-hmm. Perfect.
Yeah.
You know, you gave your revised or sort of outlook a little bit here, or tweaked it, I guess, at the end of the third quarter. We've seen, as per usual, right, schedules always sort of change, some announcements of downtime, you know, pluses here, minuses there. When we net it all together, any sort of major surprises we've seen here sort of in the fourth quarter as we begin to think about next year?
We've seen some incremental downtime that we didn't contemplate starting the quarter. We did anticipate, and we talked about this on our third quarter earnings call, some volatility in our production schedules because we have a couple big launches that are occurring on two of our major programs. But we've seen a bit of top-line pressure on top of that as well.
Yeah. How can you just remind us, like, on those sort of major platforms you're on, especially when there's a changeover? Like, what's sort of the lead time that you sort of see, like, in terms of sort of capacitizing and sort of getting the product ready for the production of the vehicles?
Are you referring to, like, when we get full ramp-up?
Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
You know, I would say maybe within a couple months.
Okay.
Two, three months. It really depends on, like, you know, how quickly the final assembly is, how comfortable they are with the final assembly. If there's, like, quality issues, they'll slow it down a little bit. But, you know, within two, three months, it should be up and running.
Mm-hmm. And, you know, with some of the additional downtime, you know, you mentioned sort of it was maybe a little bit unexpected. Was there still enough flexibility in the system to sort of take some cost out to deal with it? Or should we sort of see normal flow-throughs on that volume? What should we expect?
I think what we should think about is, you know, every time there's a volume decline, there's always that 25%-30% contribution on the downside. But if you take a look at what we've done in the last several quarters, we have a strong emphasis on operational improvement.
Mm-hmm.
You know, our goal is, you know, we're gonna continue to make strides there. The question at hand is, how much is the downtime gonna impact us overall? So, you know, look, I think you know, our focus will continue to be on optimization and, you know, what you saw in the first, second, and third quarter from, you know, what we're trying to do. You know, we're trying to continue that momentum.
Okay. You know, again, you know, re-recognizing we're not gonna sort of get 25 guidance now, and we'll have to wait for your fourth quarter report. But we're, you know, I imagine the company's clearly, if not squarely, into sort of the planning process for next year. So just at a high level, right, you know, how are you sort of thinking about the industry and sort of the market and some of your key customers? And, you know, has some of the election outcome and, you know, potential policy 'cause we haven't seen anything sort of happen yet, right? How is that beginning to sort of factor in, at least for sort of contingency planning or anything?
Okay. So, you know, I think it's, you know, 25 guidance is, you know, obviously too early. You know, we are observing the same data points that you guys are all observing right now. You know, I would say that interest rates are something that's top of mind, affordability with the consumer. And, you know, there's a lot of policy rhetoric that's happening. We just have to wait and see. I mean, if, if it goes one way, there could be a snowball effect that impacts other areas of the industry. And we have to see it in, as a whole rather than just pieces, one piece at a time. So it's, it's difficult to answer your question because the, the policy could really sway one way or the other and really change the way that we, could possibly change the way we do business.
Mm-hmm.
In the mid- to longer-term and could have obviously short-term repercussions. Look, I think once the Trump administration gets into office, there's more clarity. You know, we have some time from now to when we report for 4Q earnings to, you know, sort of sharpen up.
Mm-hmm.
You know, our direction of what we can do.
Welcome back, everyone. Continuing on here with the AutoTrak at the 2024 UBS Industrials Conference. Pleased to have American Axle next up here with us. We have Shannon Curry, VP and Treasurer, and David Lim from Investor Relations. I think David wanted to make just a brief disclaimer comment.
Yeah, yeah. Fantastic conference. Always enjoy being here. But we do want to tell all of you to look to our forward-looking statements. That's on AAM.com on the IR site. And with that, you know, let's kick it off.
Great. Yeah, let's kick it off. So, you know, obviously, a very volatile year, let's say, to say the least in automotive, and you know, since we are sort of approaching, you know, year-end, I think I got my, like, Spotify Wrapped, you know, list here. Sort of feeling a little bit nostalgic. I'm wondering if you could sort of maybe just, you know, take a step back and assess, you know, what you think went well for American Axle in a very challenging year and where there are still some, you know, areas to sort of work on.
Gotcha.
Yeah. So I'll start with that. What's gone well? I think we've seen. We've been really focused on some operational improvements in our plants. We've seen sequential margin improvement quarter- over- quarter. We've seen stabilization in the supply chain. And also in our workforce and some of the hourly labor availability issues that we've been facing are certainly still there, but we're seeing stabilization, and that's also leading to some of the margin improvement that we're seeing, particularly in our metal-forming sites. So, I think we're feeling positive about the operating momentum that we have going into the end of the year.
Mm-hmm. Perfect.
Yeah.
You know, you gave your revised or sort of outlook a little bit here, or tweaked it, I guess, at the end of the third quarter. We've seen, as per usual, right, schedules always sort of change, some announcements of downtime, you know, pluses here, minuses there. When we net it all together, any sort of major surprises we've seen here sort of in the fourth quarter as we begin to think about next year?
We've seen some incremental downtime that we didn't contemplate starting the quarter. We did anticipate, and we talked about this on our third quarter earnings call, some volatility in our production schedules because we have a couple big launches that are occurring on two of our major programs. But we've seen a bit of top-line pressure on top of that as well.
Yeah. How can you just remind us, like, on those sort of major platforms you're on, especially when there's a changeover? Like, what's sort of the lead time that you sort of see, like, in terms of sort of capacitizing and sort of getting the product ready for the production of the vehicles?
Are you referring to, like, when we get full ramp-up?
Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
You know, I would say maybe within a couple months.
Okay.
Two, three months. It really depends on, like, you know, how quickly the final assembly is, how comfortable they are with the final assembly. If there's, like, quality issues, they'll slow it down a little bit. But, you know, within two, three months, it should be up and running.
Mm-hmm. And, you know, with some of the additional downtime, you know, you mentioned sort of it was maybe a little bit unexpected. Was there still enough flexibility in the system to sort of take some cost out to deal with it? Or should we sort of see normal flow-throughs on that volume? What should we expect?
I think what we should think about is, you know, every time there's a volume decline, there's always that 25%-30% contribution on the downside. But if you take a look at what we've done in the last several quarters, we have a strong emphasis on operational improvement.
Mm-hmm.
You know, our goal is, you know, we're gonna continue to make strides there. The question at hand is, how much is the downtime gonna impact us overall? So, you know, look, I think you know, our focus will continue to be on optimization and, you know, what you saw in the first, second, and third quarter from, you know, what we're trying to do. You know, we're trying to continue that momentum.
Okay. You know, again, you know, re-recognizing we're not gonna sort of get 25 guidance now, and we'll have to wait for your fourth quarter report. But we're, you know, I imagine the company's clearly, if not squarely, into sort of the planning process for next year. So just at a high level, right, you know, how are you sort of thinking about the industry and sort of the market and some of your key customers? And, you know, has some of the election outcome and, you know, potential policy 'cause we haven't seen anything sort of happen yet, right? How is that beginning to sort of factor in, at least for sort of contingency planning or anything?
Okay. So, you know, I think it's, you know, 25 guidance is, you know, obviously too early. You know, we are observing the same data points that you guys are all observing right now. You know, I would say that interest rates are something that's top of mind, affordability with the consumer. And, you know, there's a lot of policy rhetoric that's happening. We just have to wait and see. I mean, if, if it goes one way, there could be a snowball effect that impacts other areas of the industry. And we have to see it in, as a whole rather than just pieces, one piece at a time. So it's, it's difficult to answer your question because the, the policy could really sway one way or the other and really change the way that we, could possibly change the way we do business.
Mm-hmm.
In the mid- to longer-term and could have obviously short-term repercussions. Look, I think once the Trump administration gets into office, there's more clarity. You know, we have some time from now to when we report for Q earnings to, you know, sort of sharpen up.
Mm-hmm.
You know, our direction of what we can do.
Let's, I mean, double-click on some of the policy things. There's two main areas, right? One is sort of, I guess, EV policy and one is trade.
Yeah.
Right? So let's start with, you know, EV policy. I would argue, maybe you disagree, that irrespective of who won the election, it was clear that, you know, something was gonna need to change from a either regulatory perspective or you could just see the demand wasn't as expected, you know, for EVs. So we look at some of your, you know, key contributing products, and you look at some of the third-party forecasts. As you get to sort of the middle of the decade, back half of the decade, there's a tail-off, right? But it's completely supplanted by electric versions of that product. Are you internally, do you think now that, and maybe you always thought this, but is that outcome less likely in your view?
Yeah. That really has been a view that we've held. And if you've.
Yeah.
Talked to David and you've heard him make comments over the past couple of years that it seemed that the EV kind of ramp-up, you know, where it might be expected to be 2030, that seemed a little overexuberant from the forecasters from our perspective and that ICE would have a longer tail than maybe what was being forecasted.
Mm-hmm.
It seems like that is what's going to play out. If ICE has a longer tail, that's good for us. We have a lot of installed capacity, of course, to support those programs.
Mm-hmm.
Those are good cash-generating programs for us. And so, as what we see is that those propulsion systems will coexist, we think, for a long time.
Right.
That EVs won't completely supplant ICE. They'll coexist. And then also, that there will be an expansion of hybrid vehicles that come out. And that's something that we also can support very well. We're well-positioned to do that. And so that's overall generally favorable for us when we look at our programs from a volume perspective. If the ICE is.
Right.
ICE tails longer, and we extend programs that we're already on, which, of course, are large programs. That's good.
I know we don't have the engineering team up on stage. But from a hybrid or sort of plug-in hybrid perspective on some of those trucks, is it, and I know it depends on the configuration, but generally, driveline, axle sort of, is that still a decent opportunity for you if some of those larger vehicles move in that direct hybrid?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Oh, yeah. Absolutely.
Yeah.
Yeah. I mean, I mean, I think Shannon's mentioned during our investor call that when General Motors did the hybrid version of their big trucks in the past.
Yeah.
I mean, it was really no different axle. You know, it was similar.
Mm-hmm.
Similar content. There could be actually opportunities for more content.
Mm-hmm.
So, yeah. I mean, hybrids are great with us too.
and does, you know, you mentioned you've always had sort of a slower adoption outlook for electric vehicles and maybe some third parties. Clearly proven to be correct. Yet it does seem like you are still at least stepping up some of the investment you're making.
Mm-hmm.
For electrification. Now maybe that's not as much as you originally planned, but this still is higher. Is there an opportunity to sort of push that out even further if you do see sort of if there's clearer signs that certain policies do take hold?
Yeah. Certainly there is. We would continue to develop out our full, you know, electrification portfolio and continue to optimize our traditional products from a light weighting perspective and focus on other efficiency initiatives that would benefit the ICE and hybrid programs.
Mm-hmm.
We would expect to continue to focus on R&D, but there's definitely an opportunity to regulate it in at a more kind of spread-out pace. Same for CapEx.
Right.
If we're extending ICE programs, that's gonna be less CapEx for us. Maybe it's retooling and things as opposed to new equipment.
Mm-hmm.
So we could spread the CapEx out. We do. We are believers in the EV technology. So we certainly see, you know, that's still growth area for us, and we'll continue to focus on that. But being able to regulate it with cash-flow-generating core business while we're doing it is definitely helpful for us from a cash-flow perspective. Helps balance for sure.
I do wanna come back to policy and other aspects of it since you sort of brought up CapEx and the reusability to the extent that ICE lasts longer. I mean, it seems like to me like where you get sort of spikes in your CapEx is when you do have big program changeovers, even for existing ones, as you mentioned earlier, there are some big ones coming up. So how should we think about CapEx heading into 2025?
So I would say that, look, I think the general thought is we wanna stay 5% or below. There are gonna be periods of where it's gonna go up, you know, episodically a little higher than that. And look, in those situations, it's gonna be probably more related to launches than not. And if you take a look at, like the S&P production schedules, you'll see some big programs are about to change over over the next couple years.
Mm-hmm.
We're gonna typically spend CapEx about 12- 18 months before that launch period. So, yeah. But if you take a look at our historical CapEx, I wanna say in the past, we used to run like 8%-9%.
Mm-hmm.
And we've done a fantastic job in controlling that. So again, 5% or less, and there could be periods where it could, maybe trend a little bit above that.
Are there major changes to axle and driveline, or is this sort of a refresh of the capital because some of the tooling is old, or?
So it's gonna be a little bit of both. I mean, there is gonna be capital that we're gonna reuse, re-maintenance. There's gonna be always capital that's gonna be needed, in any kind of launch. But if you take a look at what the directive was from the top of the house maybe, you know, two, three years ago, is a program to go in and say, "Hey, what do we really need to buy all new? Can we reuse things? Can we refurbish things?
Mm-hmm.
That's how you've probably seen our CapEx numbers sort of trend downwards over the last couple years.
Yeah, so let's move on to everyone else's, you know, area of focus here, at least from the investor side, on policy, which is trade. And.
Terrific question.
Yeah. I'm sure you've probably gotten this in some of your meetings today, and I'm sure you prepared for it. But look, we could all see your footprint, right? There's definitely U.S. facilities.
Mm-hmm.
There's also Mexican facilities, and to be perfectly candid, right, this is an industry-wide issue, right?
Mm-hmm.
The industry's very heavily reliant on Mexico and to a lesser extent, Canada. We obviously don't know what exactly will happen. But again, in similar vein to what we were talking about earlier, there has to be some sort of contingency planning. So can we just sort of talk about your footprint, what a potential impact would be? I believe you operate maquiladora, so that seems like it might have some additional, you know, mechanisms in place. Like, I'm not sure how much of the product comes from the U.S. into Mexico and then sort of back out to the U.S. But what, how would you sort of frame your sort of exposure to Mexico, let's say?
Yeah. So it is really impossible at this point for us to speculate on the exact impact that it might have, as David mentioned, in isolation without considering what might or may not happen in other regulatory.
Mm-hmm.
Or, policy changes. But to give some context, we do have a large manufacturing presence in Mexico. We produce about 35%-40% of our sales come from our facilities in Mexico.
Mm-hmm.
The majority of that is sold to OEMs within the country of Mexico. Now they then produce automobiles that most are subsequently imported into the US. So there would be a tariff that would apply to that that will ultimately, we would imagine, would result in inflation and the cost of a vehicle and put some pressure on affordability, which then could have a down, you know, a pressure downward effect on demand.
Yeah.
So indirectly, yes, we'd be affected. We wouldn't directly be paying tariffs if they were applied in that direction. Our overall philosophy as a company is that we source generally as much as we can in the same region that we produce, for the market. So in the U.S., for our U.S. production, we're buying most of our direct materials from U.S. sources. So not as much risk there.
Mm-hmm.
Now, our Mexican operations buy from U.S. sources.
Right.
So if there were retaliatory tariffs, that could have an impact. So there are several different pieces to think about. But just to give you some context.
Yeah.
Those are some data points.
So, GM's facility in Arlington is not supplied solely from Mexico?
It is.
It is. Okay. So there is, so you said the majority, but there is clearly some product across the.
Yes.
Border.
Yeah.
And recognizing that, look, ultimately, this will be, you know, brought to the negotiating table if the tariffs are sort of put in place.
Yeah.
But by the way the contracts are just written, if there was a tariff tomorrow and you had to ship an axle from Mexico to across the border, who is actually paying that?
Yeah. Our customers generally take ownership at our dock.
Mm-hmm.
So they would be the importer of record.
They would be the importer.
In the U.S.
Okay.
Mm-hmm.
But then they would obviously come to you and saying, "We gotta figure something out.
Potentially.
That's right. Yeah. Okay. And does the maquiladora status at all impact some of that? Like, because if some of the product is coming from, my understanding, and correct me if I'm wrong, I'm not an expert here, but is that if you have some U.S. product coming into Mexico, be the Maquiladora, but then it sort of comes back from Mexico into the U.S., it would only really apply to the value-added portion in Mexico? Or is that not?
It's possible. But that's where it gets really difficult to speculate without knowing.
The details.
Specifically the details of the rules and where it would apply or where it wouldn't and any exceptions.
Mm-hmm.
One thing that is just a fact is the automotive industry is so important to the U.S. economy.
Mm-hmm.
The automotive industry in North America is completely interconnected.
Mm-hmm.
So, it's hard to think that a new administration would want to damage the U.S. auto industry and tariffs being applied the way that.
Mm-hmm.
You know, they're being discussed would definitely be a shock to the system. So, whether something might be applied over a longer period of time or in a different way, you know, we need to wait that out to determine it. But, I'm sure there will be rational thinking about the effect it would have overall on.
Mm-hmm.
Consumer demand and affordability and the industry as a whole.
Yeah. You know, in the last earnings call, David sort of mentioned, or alluded to, the new business quoting of R&D being a little bit more muted.
Yeah.
I think there's valid reasons for that. I guess what I'm wondering is the expectation now, given it seems like even greater uncertainty, like 'cause you reported, I think, pre-election, right? and.
Well, day after, I think.
Okay. Was it day after? Okay. So but still, now there's even more, you know, potential uncertainty. Do you expect that to remain the case here for a little bit? Or are some of the conversations with customers sort of continuing on because they realize, like, irrespective of what happens, like there's a need to, you know, move certain things in certain directions?
Yeah. The uncertainty definitely makes it difficult for the leadership and our customers to make long-term decisions. So, some of that may, you know, continue to hold quoting activity and program decisions for a bit of time. But I think, as you said, irrespective of exactly what happens, it does seem clear that the ICE for longer.
Mm-hmm.
Tail and some of the EV,
Mm-hmm.
Maybe incentives or regulations will change, and so having that piece of the overhang, it feels like, will end.
Yeah.
And then they can start to make some decisions about that. Now, if they're plant footprint decisions or other things.
Mm-hmm.
Those, I think, will be on hold and will need more information probably to settle out.
In the ICE for longer scenario, do you envision that being like you know brand new ICE programs or sort of more of an extension and sort of more you know elongated in life refreshes maybe you know maybe not sort of completely new programs but sort of minor to somewhat major refreshes to sort of keep that capital investment sort of?
Yeah.
On their front, on their end, somewhat flexible?
At this point, I think, our view would be the latter.
Yeah.
It would be program extensions, maybe just higher volumes on programs.
Mm-hmm.
Even pre-extension.
Mm-hmm.
and with maybe design adjustments and other things. That's that would be kind of something we'd think of right now based on what we know.
It seems like that would be somewhat of a positive for you, right?
Yeah.
'Cause it would also eliminate your need to invest. Obviously, there would be some refurbishment need or refurbishment of capital or whatever.
Yeah.
But it's to the extent that programs you already have business on just run for X number of years longer. That seems like, like that's positive for your margins and cash flow.
Correct.
Okay. So we're crossing our fingers for that.
Yeah.
I guess by extension, sort of the other side of the quoting activity and sort of the backlog, which I know you'll sort of update in January, February, whenever you report, but, you know, you do sort of always report it as a gross number, but then talked about historically, there's been about $100 million-$200 million of attrition. So is it that the gross number is lower, but the attrition number is also lower? So net we're at a fairly similar level. Is that a high-level way to think about this?
Yeah. The way that program extensions would affect attrition is it could run it to the lower end of that because if we previously felt that a program would expire, or end, and now it extends, we would have less attrition in that case. It's hard to say what that does to the backlog because there we do expect there still will be new program awards and things like that. But on its own, program extension should reduce attrition that we had expected.
What about, you know, as automakers, right? 'Cause and, you know, we sort of have focused our conversation to date really very much on the U.S. and North America market, which, you know, makes sense for your company. But some of these automakers are a little bit more global. And there are obviously challenges in Europe, and, you know, likewise, some who are struggling in China as well, the, you know, the foreign brands. So as they think about where they want to invest their capital, if they still have to deal with some other calls on that cash, do you see more of an opportunity for business to come your way from business that they've maybe historically done themselves?
Or is there even an opportunity for them to reevaluate suppliers they may have used in the past for certain product to see if they can, you know, get a better, more cost-effective product from American Axle?
Yeah. We certainly think there's an opportunity for that, and we're very well-positioned for those kinds of discussions.
Mm-hmm.
I mean, our history of how our company has grown is, you know, GM outsourcing their axle business to us. We're really good at that. And the relationships we have with our customers are very strong and our capabilities are strong. And our customers appreciate that. So we think if it trends that way, we're well-positioned to support them.
Mm-hmm. And.
It has to make money.
I guess, and that would be. I mean, that would be around sort of, you know, core axle and driveline product where you see the biggest opportunity or some of the other areas you're pulling?
Could be, could be core driveline product. It could be maybe they were thinking about electrification, doing more in-house, and they shift their gears on that on the electrification technology side.
Mm-hmm.
As you know, we can provide e-Beam Axles. We can provide e-Drive units. We can also provide components. And so we'd have the opportunity to support in maybe more of the full system way.
Mm-hmm.
If one of the OEMs were to shift their planning in that direction. So I think both.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So moving back to sort of, you know, thinking about the future sort of at a high level and let's again sort of ignore some of the trade uncertainty. If we think about the profitability of the business and the margin profile of the business, obviously volume is a key factor here, probably the most important one as it is for pretty much every supplier. We could all make in this room and on the webcast our own sort of assumptions about volume.
Mm-hmm.
What I'm curious to learn a little bit more about is, aside from volume, right, going back to sort of how you sort of re-rate, you know, rated maybe some of the 24 performance, what is in American Axle's control that can still drive margins either higher or lower, going forward? And, you know, how much opportunity do you see there at DC?
Yeah. We're intensely focused on continuing to improve efficiency and productivity in our plants. So we think that, which you've seen this year in our margin improvements, we think that that can continue and that in both of our business units, there's further opportunity there. We're looking at plant loading, you know, how to optimize our production among our plants. And then, as I mentioned, some of the things that have started to stabilize that, you know, can run more at optimal levels.
Mm-hmm.
That's a real focus for us. So big opportunity there.
But I guess the schedule stability certainly has improved, I guess, versus sort of some of the low lights, I guess. But, like, but if we sort of go back and sort of on the commentary we just mentioned, it does seem like there is sort of a lot of uncertainty. So is there.
Absolutely.
Is there the potential for some of that volatility to return? What lessons learned from the prior periods of volatility can you apply to sort of going forward if it were to occur? I'm not saying it will.
Right.
But if it were to occur, what, what type of future?
Yeah. Absolutely.
Okay.
That's a great point. We're focused on being as agile and adaptable as we can be, which is hard when, you know, there's short plant downtime, you know, short notice for the plant downtime. But that's one of the things that we're just trying each time it happens to get better at it to reduce the decrementals and things like that so that we can adjust as quickly as possible.
Mm-hmm.
So that'll continue to be a focus for us. There will always be volatility.
Right.
It won't be. The schedules won't be perfectly what you planned.
Mm-hmm.
So we need to be as structured and good at that as we can be.
Recoveries are also a part of the equation, in 2024.
Mm-hmm.
Is there still some level of recoveries you expect to occur next year?
So I think the general thought for next year is if things stay the way they are at par, it's gonna be pretty muted next year from a recovery standpoint.
Okay.
Yeah.
And then.
The way we see it.
And then, you know.
Then commodities, I guess, are sort of a little bit unclear as well, although that might be another area that's also sort of subject to tariffs, I guess. So, can you just sort of remind us some of the buys and maybe even what you saw happen with steel pricing? I know you buy SBQ, but what happened sort of, you know, in Trump 1.0 when tariffs were put in place on steel?
In 2018, I think we had about $5 million of tariff impact in 2019, you know, call it around $10 million-$15 million, maybe a little closer to the $15 million side. You know, we'll see. But you know, most of our steel buys are now here in the U.S. We do very minimal.
Mm-hmm.
Outside of the U.S. So I think, in that sense, it sort of insulates us now a little bit more.
Mm-hmm.
But, you know, again, with any kind of tariffs, you know, we'll have to see the broad spectrum of how that's gonna, how the policy's gonna unfold.
Are there any sort of contractual levers on the commodities for?
So as you already know, we do direct buy.
Right.
with you know some of our raw materials, and then we have the pass-through element.
Mm-hmm.
and that, that's just mechanical. We pass through 80% of any increase or, you know, and it goes the other way too.
So the tariff would be included, would be considered a part of that increase, or no?
No. That, that is kind of the indices.
Yeah. Right.
As they change.
Yeah.
The tariff would be separate from that.
Yeah.
If it were paid on the base price.
Yeah.
Mm-hmm.
Yeah.
So yeah, those are the two elements on our commodity price.
Okay. And we touched on CapEx a little bit, but anything else sort of, you know, we should think about from a free cash or free cash conversion perspective into next year?
No. That's really the main point. I mean, the EBITDA generation and the CapEx looking at the forward programs, our interest, cash payments for interest should come down over time as we continue to consistently.
Mm-hmm.
Pay down our debt levels. And if interest rates, you know, we do have pretty high percentage of our debt is at fixed rates, but that some of it is variable. So as rates decline, that should help that as well. And then just, you know, keeping focus on working capital.
Yeah.
Management. There may be some opportunity in the,
You've done a pretty decent job there, but is there opportunity or?
There could be some opportunity in the inventory levels that we carry, as things continue to stabilize. But in periods where there's volatility.
Yeah.
It's, you know, we may hold a little bit more stock just to protect ourselves and our customers. So, but overall, we manage working capital, as you mentioned, very well, so.
One of the things that we're hearing from a number of suppliers (I'm not sure how applicable this is for some of your businesses) but is, you know, looking towards more automation in the plant.
Mm-hmm.
What, maybe you could just sort of let us know, like, what have you been doing? What are you looking into? What are you investigating? Is that a meaningful opportunity at all for you?
I think it's the automation side's gonna take a little longer. I mean.
Mm-hmm.
Definitely, we could put automation equipment in more on the quality control side. We already have robots working on manufacturing. I think, we have to really weigh, the investment in automation versus is it cheaper to automate or retain employees?
Mm-hmm.
You know, once we get that fully figured out, we'll probably lean more and more on automation, but it has to make sense from a dollar perspective. But.
Yeah.
The whole initiative behind that was, you know, because of the lack of labor. It really forced the industry and maybe, maybe we could just talk about ourselves, for American Axle to go back and say, you know, you know, we see this problem. It could probably reoccur in the future. So what do we do in order to mitigate that?
Yeah.
It's something that's being evaluated from our CEO's office.
Yeah. It means it's not just a cost and math problem. It's an availability problem that automation can help solve.
Yeah. For sure. I wanted to see if there's anything in the audience. Oh. All right. We got a couple. Yeah. Break.
Hi. Thanks so much for doing this. Question just on recoveries. You talked about it being maybe a more muted year in 2025. Curious if there's anything about the sort of repricing or piece pricing that you've been working through over the last couple of years that would, you know, maybe start to carry over into 2025? So, you know, you're not seeing the actual recoveries, but you're seeing sort of better profitability per unit, whether it's, you know, covering the cost of labor, covering the cost of commodities, anything like that, that you could speak to?
So, I mean, when those costs are being covered, you know, we're not necessarily adding margin to the recovery. So that's the way that we would probably think about it is, you know, it's being the increased cost, input cost is just being additive to the overall bill of materials.
What about? I know this isn't the question there, but just to follow up on that point, you know, if we think about when peak inflation occurred a number of years ago, that's probably in the quoting on those programs.
Yeah.
That's probably about, like, this year is probably when those programs start, right? So is that not a benefit? I mean, I guess, like, is that a benefit for you that you sort of quoted at sort of higher levels of inflation? I know inflation hasn't sort of necessarily come way down. I guess it depends a little bit on the commodity. And I guess to follow on with that, if there was a program that was bid on at sort of peak commodity levels and commodities are down, are your customers coming back to you saying, "We need to rethink that pricing"?
So I think the simple answer is they monitor input costs like hawks. We monitor our input costs like hawks. And, you know, it works both ways.
Yeah.
When inflation was going up, we went to them and if we made a contract a couple of years ago at peak commodity and peak labor prices and that sort of falls down, the negotiation's both ways.
Yeah. Okay. Sorry. Go ahead. Yeah.
Yeah. I have a couple of questions. First on steel for your non-pass-through buy, what percentage of that is renegotiated here, you know, in Q4 for the start of the year? And is that sort of one-year contracts, two-year contracts? Obviously, steel prices have come down, so I'm trying to think through.
Yeah.
You know, should we look at last year's steel prices, two-year-ago steel prices? Help me understand some of these questions.
So yeah, that's a great question. We normally contract for one to two years. We haven't broken out a split on how many of that dollars, dollars and cents or percentage of, what's one year versus two years. But normally, our contracts are for one to two years.
They do reset at the start of the year? In January.
So yeah, for generally, yes.
Generally.
Yes.
Okay.
A-and.
So the negotiations are going on or the discussions are going on, I mean, as of.
Okay.
Right now.
And it's about 20% that's non-pass-through?
Pardon?
Is 20% of your buy non-pass-through? Is that a good number?
So we haven't broken out the number between direct buy and pass-through. We just said that there is an element where we do a direct buy from our steel mills, et cetera, and then there is an element that we do pass-through to the OEM customer. But we haven't dimensionalized the two.
Okay. And then, obviously, the tariffs, who knows what the peso will do moving forward, but it seems a bit weaker than where we've been. How do you quantify the impact of the peso on your cost structure? What kind of sensitivity should we think about there?
Yeah. So, in a given year, we buy between $5 billion-$6 billion of pesos to support our Mexican operations that are selling in U.S. dollars. So that's mostly the labor and local overhead that we have. So that's kinda to give scale to it. We do hedge the majority of that on a three-year rolling hedge program. So in the coming year, we would normally be 70%-80% hedged for the coming 12 months. And then as we go out in the second year and the third year, we'd be hedged at a smaller percentage. So it won't move quite as much in any initial year as what you're seeing in the market.
Just to give you some scale, you will see, like, this past year, you know, some of the hedging we were placing hedges that are three years out when it was at 17. We, you know, also had some this year that are settling that were at 20 that we bought three years ago. So it just kinda blends in. You won't see it be as prominent in year one when there are changes.
So if it stayed at this level for another two years, then in three years, you'd start to see somewhat of a tailwind?
Yes. For sure. Yeah. And the way the mechanics of a peso trade works is when you buy forward, you actually are buying at a better rate than you would be today. So, like, for today, we're buying pesos three years out at 23.
Mm-hmm.
So, you know, and we do that on a rolling basis, so it all averages in over time.
Right. Right.
Anything else?
Shannon, maybe just to close, you know, we sort of talked a little bit about the free cash flow. You sort of mentioned some of the debt profile, and the FX versus some variable.
Mm-hmm.
Just, you know, remind us, sort of what, you know, of the leverage targets, you know, when you think you could get there, you know, what is actually sort of, you know, prepayable or could come down, and I guess, like, in, you know, I think deleveraging has been one of the priorities for the company, so if the ICE for longer, you know, world sort of plays out and the cash flow is stronger 'cause these programs are extended and we don't have sort of the tariff situation, can some of that actually be brought forward a little bit with stronger free cash?
Yeah. So I'll take that. There are a couple of questions there.
Yeah.
So I'll start with our target. So we've said we ended the quarter at 2.8 times net leverage. And we've said that our target is to get to two times or less. So we wanna trend toward that over time. We haven't given it a specific timeframe because that's just really hard to do because there are a lot of things outside of our control. But we wanna trend towards that. We've been dedicated to using a portion of our free cash flow in a very consistent way to repay debt. So even this week, we fully redeemed our 2026 senior notes. So we don't have any senior debt note maturities now until 2027.
Mm-hmm.
So we like to keep, you know, a nice runway there and a long-dated maturity profile so we can be opportunistic as we decide to refinance. But all of our debt, we could repay, you know, a half our capital structures term loans that we can prepay with no penalty at all. And the senior notes are all prepaid or callable just at variable rates. The 27s will be payable at par.
Mm-hmm.
You know, next year. So we have plenty of ways we can allocate the cash when we wanna make a debt payment.
Is the two-times leverage target anything you'd ever reconsider? And I just ask because, you know, we just prior to this, we had Dana who, you know, posts their announcement will look more like an American Axle-type company, right, without the highway business. And they said that for the RemainCo, they're gonna target more like a half turn to a turn.
Mm-hmm.
So is that something you'd take another look at?
We say two times or less.
Okay.
So we've said that.
Fair enough.
We'll reevaluate when we get to that, you know, period of time. We'll look overall at what the next steps are.
Okay. Great. Well, Shannon and David, thanks so much for joining us today.
Yeah.
We really appreciate you having us.
Yeah. Thank you. Thank you, everyone.