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J.P. Morgan Auto Conference

Aug 9, 2023

Ryan Brinkman
Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Okay, great. Joining us for the next session, once again, I'm Ryan Brinkman, U.S. Autos Analyst at J.P. Morgan. Very excited to get going now with American Axle. We have David Dauch, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, is gonna make some opening remarks. Next to me is Chris May, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Let me turn it over to David. Thank you.

David Dauch
Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Okay, great. Well, good morning, everyone. Before we get going with, with my remarks, I just have you turn to our forward-looking statement regarding our investor deck that's posted on our website there. As, as it relates to the second quarter, you know, we had a solid financial quarter in the second quarter from a performance standpoint. Sales came in at $1.57 billion. Our EBITDA was around $192 million, a little over 12% EBITDA performance. We generated close to $100 million of free cash flow. Again, strong cash flow quarter for us, synonymous with who we are as an organization, our performance that way. From a guidance standpoint, we did not change our guidance.

We did not uplift or, or lower our guidance. We, we left it unchanged and, and, and maintained it. Sales in the range of $5.95 billion-$6.25 billion, EBITDA in the range of $725 million-$800 million, then free cash flow to $225 million-$300 million range, with North American production being at that 15.5 million, is what we had identified. Just wanna make sure we're- we conveyed that to you as well. As you all know, in the last quarter, the first quarter, we had an outstanding announcement in regards to the big Stellantis award win, both front and beam axles. You know, we can't really, you know, get into much more detail beyond that, but it's a sizable contract with significant content per vehicle.

Just defines our relevancy with respect to our technology and our, our electrification efforts. All the investments that we're putting in are really paying handsomely. This quarter, we announced a new beam axle award, a two-in-one solution for a China-based customer. Unfortunately, we're not allowed to announce that customer yet. We will at the appropriate time. Again, continued positive momentum on the electrification front on the beam axle side. We also won a number of components and sub-assembly work in the second quarter, one with the European OEM and the other with the North American OEM. Both of those accounts are sizable-type programs that have good volume behind them as we go forward. Again, when we can announce those customers and those programs, we'll do that.

We feel really good about, like I said, where we are on electrification and, and the efforts that we're making there, and continue to grow our backlog and new business, which sits at $725 million, is what we covered from the 2023-2025 period of time. We just expect that to grow as we go forward. We are quoting $1.5 billion of new and incremental business. More than 75% of that is electrification-based. Our backlog presently sits at about 40% electrified. With us quoting, you know, what we are, 75% or more of, of the $1.5 billion, we only expect that electrification portion of our backlog to grow going forward. We've communicated that we think the overall electrification market by 2030 will be a $20 billion-$30 billion market.

We're approaching the market in 4 different ways, from a component standpoint, think gears and shafts, from a sub-assembly, think differentials, also gearboxes. From a final assembly standpoint, both from an electric drive unit, and also from a beam axle standpoint. We feel very good. We're one of the only 2 companies that can approach the market that way. We're winning business in all of those areas at this point in time on a global scale. Clearly, our home market is North America, with being 75% of our business. That's where the bigger opportunities are for us at this point in time. As it relates to our strategy going forward here, again, we've been very consistent in regards to what we're doing from an execution standpoint.

Our key, first and foremost, is to secure all of our ICE business going forward. We're very close to having that done. Matter of fact, we expect to wrap that up yet this year. That'll be positive for us because the programs that we're on will be around for decades and will continue to be a source of cash generation for us. We're also, you know, obviously heavily focused on the operational performance of our business and driving cash and generating that cash that gives us optionality to fund R&D going forward, pay down debt, and also look at strategic acquisitions where it makes business sense, much like we did last year with the Tekfor acquisition, excuse me, the Tekfor acquisition. We're also continuing to upgrade our product portfolio, with a heavy emphasis on electrification.

Probably, the majority of what we're spending from an R&D standpoint is on the electrification side of things. As always, we'll continue to strengthen our balance sheets, and we continue to pay down debt each and every quarter. We'll do that as we go forward as well. We've been very disciplined. We've communicated that to the investment community, and we've been disciplined as a management team executing upon that. Clearly, you know, what, what the investors really wanna see is that growth in that electrification side. Like I said, quarter after quarter, we're announcing new and incremental electrification wins, but obviously, the biggest one being Stellantis in the first quarter. With that, that'll complete my opening remarks. Ryan, I'll turn it over to you.

Ryan Brinkman
Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Great. Thanks, David. You know, we're asking each of the suppliers at the conference a, a few general questions including as relates to demand. You know, demand, generally surprised, stronger this year, right? Particularly in the U.S. Just curious if you could sort of, you know, rate the strength of the different economies or end markets that you operate in that are most important for you and, and what your outlook is going forward.

David Dauch
Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Well, well, clearly, as I mentioned earlier, we have to start right here in North America. 75% of our business is here in North America. We are seeing an uptick in regards to, to volumes, which is why we raised our North American production from that 14.5 to 15, and 15 to the 15.5 million units. That's positive for us. We're also starting to see the semiconductor issue subside, which is now allowing us to maybe start getting some stability in our schedules, although there's still issues out there with semiconductors. It's not gone yet, but it's subsided considerably from where it was in the past.

When you look to Europe, Europe's been a good market for us. We've won a number of electrification programs in Europe from an end item assembly, mainly in the EDU standpoint. We also have a lot of component and sub-assembly wins in Europe. We're starting to see that, you know, market starting to improve a little bit. With the Tekfor acquisition, you know, that represents about 15% of our overall sales now. Asia, you know, is slowing a little bit in our product area, but still a, you know, good market for us. We really see the biggest opportunity for us here in North America.

Ryan Brinkman
Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Thanks. Some helpful comments there on the supply side as well. Next, I wanted to ask on sort of the backdrop for overall, you know, supplier margin. You know, supplier margins are ticking up this year in general, but still, for most suppliers, are a couple to several hundred basis points lower than where they were in 2019. When you think about all of the, you know, macro and industry factors that roll up into supplier margin, like the, you know, level and stability of production, some of the supply chain stuff we were talking about, you know, the inflation and the pricing recoveries for that inflation, you know, which doesn't come in at a margin, right?

You know, where, where do you think we are in the path to normalization of supplier margins, generally, and, or, or maybe given the structurally higher cost, does it make sense to, I don't know, maybe look at some other metrics, like return on invested capital, to gauge performance?

David Dauch
Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Yeah, let me go first, Chris, then I'll turn it over to you. When you look at pre-COVID, you know, our margins were in that 16%-18% range. At the same time, the average supplier was in that, you know, 10%-12% range. You know, post-COVID, those margins, you know, for, for the supply base, fell into the high single digits. Our margins are now operating in that, that probably 11%-13% range this past quarter, at 12%. As you, as you indicated, Ryan, inflation, some of the operating issues that are out there as far as the instability, the supply chain challenges, labor availability continue to impact us in regards to our business right now.

you know, if you just look at the operating performance, you look at metal market, and you look at foreign exchange, those have all had a negative impact on us. Now that we're starting to see volumes, recover, starting to get a little bit more stability in our operations and take out some of the inefficiencies, we expect to, you know, to claw back some of that margin going forward. Chris?

Christopher May
EVP and CFO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Yeah, I think to put a little bit, maybe, some numbers around that, Ryan, if you think pre-COVID, right, what are the sort of the large items, David mentioned a little bit of them, that put pressure on supplier margins, us included. Volume, clearly, this is a volume industry, and you're starting to see now that plateau and start to move up, which is a positive. Metal market pass-throughs for us, which is significant, and we do spike these out on our year-over-year walk, so you can see the magnitude of that. Over the last, call it 1-3 years, as these commodities have increased, we've seen an impact anywhere between 100 basis points-300 basis points on our margin alone, just on that pass-through mechanism. It's, we call it margin math.

That clearly weighs on us, and to the extent that these commodities start to come back a little bit, come down, and we've seen some of that here in the first half of the year, you know, you'll get some margin back from that perspective. You referred to the inflation pass-through. I would say last year, inflation alone was 100 basis point plus margin on us through the inflation we retained, plus the, again, margin math on the piece that we passed through. If you think about those three macro elements and where they sit today versus where they were maybe one or two years ago, I would say the trends generally are positive from that standpoint. There's clearly some upside to that.

Couple on with, some of the performance in terms of improvements with more stability and schedules and stuff like that, there's clearly some opportunity to run here, so.

Ryan Brinkman
Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Great, thanks. Maybe you could talk about, you touched on, but elaborate on some of those more significant electrification wins. Seems like you've had at least one every quarter for the past several quarters. Of course, the most significant of which is that Stellantis award, which is a full system, beam axle. You know, maybe talk about why they selected you for, you know, a full system integration approach as opposed to individual components. You had one in China and, and, and one in India, too, all beam axle. Do you think you're gaining traction in the marketplace with your beam axle solutions?

David Dauch
Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Yeah, quite honestly, we're gaining traction globally around the world with all of our electrification solutions, beam axle being a very important part of that. When you just go back and look at our history on electrification, you know, we, we partnered with Saab in 2010 to really work on eAssist and then also BEV-type applications. We bought Saab out of that joint venture in 2012, 2012. We landed our first electrification contract in 2015. We launched that first electrification contract with JLR, Jaguar Land Rover, in 2017. We secured a significant piece of business with Mercedes-AMG. There are seven variants coming off of that. We're already launched a couple of those. There's additional ones launching over the next couple of years that are within our backlog. That's all been positive news for us.

Our Gen 5 technology, which is revolutionary in regards to a three-in-one integrated solution, was adopted by an Israeli startup, that being REE. That business will launch in the coming years as part of our backlog as well. We've got over 20 electrification programs that we won, in the various stages between components and final assemblies. Obviously, the biggest one being the Stellantis program. Stellantis picked us because we're, we're a known commodity to them. We're an outstanding supplier to them. We're one of their top suppliers. Today, we can deliver the full engineering capability. In this case, we're doing all the integration, design, development of the axle. We're working with partners in regards to the motors and the inverter solutions, but we're also providing, you know, all the software capabilities and support, interfacing with them on that.

As I also mentioned, we, we've won a significant amount of awards on the component side. Many of those components are based in China. We're doing differentials for NIO in China, which is, you know, the equivalent of Tesla here in the U.S., in regards to their size and their scale, in regards to what they're doing. We've got, you know, five or six programs now in China that continue to grow, and we've leveraged our relationship with Inavance to support that partnership. In India, as you mentioned, there's two beam axle awards, one with Eicher Motors and the other with Jupiter that were recently announced in the last few quarters. All positive, you know, for American Axle.

Again, we're quoting $1.5 billion of new and incremental business, and 75% of that is electrification based on a global scale. We expect to announce more wins as we go forward here.

Ryan Brinkman
Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Great, thanks. You mentioned great gaining traction in your various different electrification solutions. Of course, there are different ways that automakers can electrify their vehicles, right? You know, whether it be through an e-beam axle or electronic drive units, you know, located in different parts of the vehicle, even in the wheels. You've won a number of awards in the different configurations, but I'm curious if you have, you know, a preference or maybe a more advantaged if an automaker takes one approach or another, including given, you know, the word axle is in your name, right? Is your expertise in e-beam axles maybe, I don't know, more differentiated versus the competition because of your driveline roots?

It, it seems too that, you know, more of the automaker insourcing discussions seem to be on the EDU, rather than, e-axle side. Is there a sense that, you know, more of the e-beam axle awards, will come up for bid, for suppliers? How do we think about the implication of, you know, axle versus non-axle kind of electrification solutions?

David Dauch
Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing

There's a lot in that question. Well, first and foremost, our job and our theme is, is to deliver power, you know, to the wheels. That's, that's what American Axle is really all about. We also want to bring the future faster when it comes to electrification. Clearly, our preference is to win more beam axle awards. There's significant content per vehicle for us. It is our core business and our largest part of our business. However, as I just articulated, we can do a lot of other things, too, from the component to the sub-assembly, to gearboxes to, to full assembly systems. The OEMs are making certain axles today, both in a beam form as well as in an EDU form. We see in electrification that their concentration is more in the electric drive unit or EDU.

We're very capable of making those. It's just a matter of what do they want to do, and what they're doing is really leveraging some of their transmission expertise and transitioning some of their resources from transmissions over to electric drive units. Some of the OEMs still maintain a beam axle capability. That's something that we'll just continue to monitor. We're seeing a significant RFQ activity in the beam axle space because of the capital intensity of the business, but also the, the inherent knowledge that goes with the, that driveline and beam axle business from a gear standpoint, from an NVH standpoint, but also the ride and handling and, and the vehicle performance and packaging space associated with the driveline side. You know, axle's in our name. We're going to continue to deliver the power to the wheels.

We just want to be agnostic to the marketplace, and so that's why we're pushing hard to offer electrification solutions on top of what we've already offered to the market, that being both ICE and hybrid solutions as well.

Ryan Brinkman
Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Great, thanks for that. maybe sticking with electrification, and with EDUs, you quickly won a number of 3-in-1 awards with Inovance shortly after your partnership with them was announced. you know, what is in production with Inovance today? What are you looking forward to launching with them? Are these programs principally in the China market? you know, how would you rate the success of this collaboration so far?

David Dauch
Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Yeah, we, we, we thought it was important to have a partner in China to go to market with, with the local Chinese OEMs. Inovance has been an outstanding partner. They're heavily concentrated in the motor and the inverter space, and we bring a lot of that gear and that driveline and integration and software knowledge, so it's a great marriage. It's working very effectively for us. We've got multiple wins, all for the China market with local Chinese OEMs. That's been positive, and we're working on some other new opportunities as well.

Ryan Brinkman
Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Great, thanks. I want to dig next into the % of your current sales that is, you know, like ICE aligned versus EV aligned versus, maybe more powertrain agnostic, and, you know, how you expect that mix to evolve over time, you know, given the awards that you've announced and maybe given some of the, you know, awards that, that you target achieving. For example, I think you've said that electrification products today are, maybe a single-digit % of, of your revenue, but a, a much, much higher, % of your backlog, right? I'm not sure if you've broken it out, but would be interested to know, what % of your business you see as essentially agnostic.

For example, I think, you know, a lot of the metal forming, products and, and processes can be used, both in internal combustion and electric vehicles. How, how do you see the portfolio, evolving over time?

David Dauch
Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Well, I'll start, and, Chris, if you want to add to it.

Ryan Brinkman
Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Yeah.

David Dauch
Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Our EV business is a small percentage of our overall business today, you know, probably in the 1% or 2% range, you know, today. As, as we've said, going forward, we see this business or the market for electrification products being a $20 billion-$30 billion market by the 2030 calendar year period of time. Much like we enjoy today on the ICE and hybrid business, we'd like to win greater than 10% of that market, which means we see our sales growing to that, you know, $2 billion-$3 billion range by the 2030 period of time. We're clearly on track, you know, to meet that. It's not going to be linear in nature going forward over the next several years. It'll be lumpy, just based on when customer opportunities and long-range product plans present themselves.

We think that we're very well positioned, you know, to capitalize on that, that new and incremental business and support those goals and those targets, that we had set for ourselves. You know, we're relevant today. We're going to continue to be relevant in the future, you know, going forward here. OEMs recognize the value proposition that we bring to the table in the multitude of facets in regards to, you know, the technology, the capability, the software, the controls, which are all paramount. The other part is just, you know, our, our gear knowledge and our NVH knowledge is very, very important, especially with the high-precision gears that you need to operate with electrification, compared to what maybe what's done with some of the other products.

From an agnostic standpoint, you know, I'd, I'd say, what, Chris, you can help me, 50% or...

Christopher May
EVP and CFO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Yeah, if you think about from an agnostic standpoint, really break it into two categories, our driveline business unit, which is, you know, about $4 billion of the $6 billion, roughly speaking. On the metal form side, about $2 billion of the $6 billion in terms of total revenues. If you look at from a, just a pure component side that we're being sourced now from an electrification side, when we are supplying into the OEM components, a significant portion of our metal form product, differential gears, differential assemblies, cases, shafts, these are all required in the electric vehicle space. I would say a sizable portion of our metal form product has the capability to transition into the electrified world from a component standpoint.

On the driveline space, all the vertical integration elements of our beam axle, we just talked about a little bit, it's a critical niche for us in terms of not only today on the ICE world, but also in the electrified world. That's all required into that space from an electric EV beam axle. If you look, actually, in our investor presentation, we have a nice comparison, pictorial comparison of our, an EV beam axle and an ICE axle. You'll look, and you'll see that consistency and how they look very similar to each other. Sizable portion from that standpoint. Of course, you're seeing this manifest into our backlog, which we talked about low single digits today from a % revenue for electrification, but our backlog heavily overweighted towards that, where 40% is now electrification.

Part of this theme, as we look at not only the products we built today, but also some of the M&A activities. For example, Techfar, which we refer to, you know, 40% of their book is agnostic in the EV world by 2025. This is key on our mind, and you're seeing us make that pivot through both the components and on some of our driveline stuff.

Ryan Brinkman
Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Great. Thank you. Maybe moving to, some of the nearer-term financial performance. Your full year guidance calls for a, you know, flat margin at the higher end, of the range on, on higher sales. You know, weighing on margin this year is that, you know, performance launch and other EBITDA bucket or, or driver, really a category of, of drivers, right? You know, it includes, of course, you know, launch costs, which investors will often look through, as sort of timing-related, you know, as long as it's not, you know, inordinate. It also includes, you know, various factors, you know, somewhat outside your control, you know, like, labor availability, et cetera, also good and, and bad guys within your control, right? Like productivity and, and whatnot.

Can you help us kind of, better understand, you know, what, what, what is rolling up into this category of drivers that weighing on margin this year, so we can get a better sense of, you know, how much of it may be, repeats going forward versus how much is maybe more, say, launch-related that, could subside more quickly?

Christopher May
EVP and CFO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Yeah, I'll take that one here. Talk a little bit, I think you're referring to our second quarter, year-over-year bridge as it relates to some of the performance and inflation elements. If you think about those three elements from an inflation standpoint in the second quarter, year-over-year, that impacted us by about $14 million, consisting of labor inflation, pass-through or up from our supply base, which they continue to face inflation, looking for recovery, but partially offset by we're seeing some lower freight costs, we're seeing some lower utility costs. The way to attack that element of the bridge is clearly through customer recoveries. We talked a little bit about this on our earnings call.

That's a back half of the year weighted activity, so that's key to sort of mitigate that inflation and really start to then drive your margin from that perspective. On the other bucket, we had $27 million year-over-year basis. About half of that was launch related. We had some sizable launches in the first half of the year. We launched the, the mid-size, General Motors, pickup program, the Colorado Canyon. There was a lot of launch activity in the first quarter for that. There was a lot of launch activity, and I would call it the earlier part of the second quarter for that. We have a few other smaller launches, but that launch bucket should start to kind of reduce as we go forward through the balance of the year.

Then the other piece was efficiency related, and that was really driven principally by some labor availability challenges we have in some of our metal form facilities in North America. That's caused, I would say, a fair amount of premium costs to us here. We're working on a lot of different methods to remediate that. We're reloading some of our facilities. We're attracting some additional talent into those facilities. That will work its way out, but closer, more towards the end of the year. If you think about our full year guide, we have a range. If we're talking the midpoint, how do you hit the midpoint?

Obviously, the back half of the year, lower sales production days, that'll be partially offset by what our view is a little more stable production on the GM full-size truck, as well as our backlog is a little more weighted to the back half of the year. Then you make those improvements on the launch, and you make those improvements on the customer recovery piece, and you make the improvements on the efficiency side. The high end is a little higher sales, an accelerated pace on those improvements. The low end, obviously, sales would seed back a little bit, and you would take various views on timing and when you solve some of those issues. That's how you should think about our range for our guidance and the things and the drivers for us to achieve that.

Ryan Brinkman
Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Very helpful. Thanks. I wanted to ask about, you know, insource versus outsource trends. What's the latest that you're seeing there in terms of automaker decisions? What's driving the trend? What's your outlook going forward? You know, I heard you say that your content per vehicle, when outsourced, can range up to, you know, $2,500+, versus when insourced and your opportunity as more of a, a component supplier might be more like, you know, up to $500. I'm sure you prefer outsourced, but, you know, what are the economics of component supply? You know, could your margins in components, in some cases, even be higher versus a system?

For example, you know, if you have a system outsourced to you, but the customer wants you to be more like a, a systems integrator, to some extent. So maybe integrating someone else's components, coming at a lower margin with some of that conversion going to a tier two supplier, et cetera. You know, what are the financial implications of, you know, insource versus, outsource, would you say, you know, in addition to just sort of CPD?

David Dauch
Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Yeah. Again, Chris, I'll, I'll make a comment-

Christopher May
EVP and CFO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Yep.

David Dauch
Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing

You can then come from there. Again, we, we'd like to do more from a content per vehicle standpoint, more final assemblies wherever possible. Our driveline margins, you know, operate in that, you know, 15%-16% range. Historically, our metal form business has operated in high double digits. Right now it's under some challenges, Chris indicated, because of some of the labor availability issues that we're working our way through as we unload certain factories and address some of the increase in demand that's out there. The OEMs are gonna do some of the work themselves. There's no doubt about that. They're vertically integrated today in many cases. They're gonna maintain a certain level of vertical integration going forward. We understand that, we know that.

All we want to do is make sure that we can be a provider and a solution to them, depending on what their final decisions are. If they want to buy a full assembly on the outside, we're prepared to support that, much like in the case of Stellantis and, and the big award there. But also, if they ever decide they want to do EDUs themselves, like they're doing with, like GM is doing with the Hummer, we're supplying the differential assemblies for that Hummer. That's just an example of how we can support them, you know, going forward. We've got the flexibility to adjust based on what the market demand and opportunities are for us. Clearly, we want more of the, the content per vehicle, and as, you know, Ryan indicated on, on, on the full assemblies, it can be $2,500+.

In, in regards to the Stellantis, we said it would be 2,500 plus, plus, plus. We feel very, very strong about, you know, the performance there. On the component side, you know, we're making good margins on the business that we have, so that's a positive business for us.

Christopher May
EVP and CFO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Yeah, I think if you think about the margin profile, if you look at our existing ICE business, that's a nice window into thinking about how we'll make that pivot into electrification from a margin perspective. On the component side, as David mentioned, our metal form group, you know, is typically in sort of that mid to high teen range, so it's a very profitable business for us. We have a lot of competitive advantages, whether it be large steel buys, a great footprint, a lot of capabilities. That transitions into the E space, if you will, from a component side.

On the driveline side, even our internal combustion engine axles we build today have a lot of, I would call, directed buy components, big brakes that hang off the ends of these axles that, you know, we are passer mechanisms that, as you know, lower margin elements of the axle, where when you transition to electrification, you have a different form of directed buy. It gives you sort of an insight to how the two business units will perform from a margin perspective, with the dynamics that sit on each of those products.

Ryan Brinkman
Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Very helpful. Thanks. I recently had the opportunity to visit with your local management team in China, and I was struck by a number of different factors, including, we already touched on, you know, those EDU wins with Inovance, but also some of the high-profile work you're doing over there on EVs with, with NIO and Baojun, and also the electric light commercial vehicle opportunity. How important is the China market for what you're trying to accomplish globally with electrified driveline? You know, when you talk about pursuing, like at CES, you know, a 10% electrification market share goal in your estimated addressable market by 2030, does that include the, you know, very, very large market for light vehicle electrification, passenger cars, in China?

David Dauch
Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing

The answer is yes to that. I mean, as I indicated earlier, our main concentration is gonna be right here in North America. That's where the majority of our business is today, but we, we see a tremendous opportunity to grow our business in China. It's gonna be, it already is the largest electrification market in the world, just based on size and scale of the market. They've really positioned themselves quite well to make the transition to, to battery electric vehicles versus ICE and hybrid applications, although there's still a big hybrid usage that's taking place. You know, BYD and, and Tesla are the, the only two real profitable companies. BYD's profitability is really coming from their hybrid business, where Tesla's is coming from their electrification business.

To answer your question, Ryan, we, we certainly see China as a, a big market for us and a market that we wanna grow in, profitably grow in as, as we go forward.

Ryan Brinkman
Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Great, thanks. Next, I want to ask on what you think is the right leverage ratio for the company and your capital allocation priorities. I appreciate you've paid down a lot of debt since levering to consummate the Metaldyne acquisition in 2Q17. Your net debts declined by $1.3 billion, from $3.7 billion to $2.4 billion over that time. The leverage ratio, though, has remained stubbornly elevated, right? Most recently around sort of like 3x, which is the second highest in our 12-company auto parts supplier coverage. You've made some smaller acquisitions since Metaldyne, and I'm sure you're, you know, I'd expect you to pull the lever on something small or super compelling, tech forward, et cetera.

You know, while I think you've got, you know, great prospects to, to manage and even net benefit from the transition to vehicle electrification, you know, the, the message I get from investors sometimes, me thinking back to Tenneco, for example, is, is that they're sort of uncomfortable piling what they perceive as financial risk on top of what they perceive as strategic risk, which causes me to think that, the valuation multiple might benefit from lower leverage ratio. What are your thoughts on leverage? What do you target? When can you get there? Maybe how committed are you to, you know, keeping the leverage in check, once you do get there?

David Dauch
Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Let me comment first, Chris, then you can go.

Christopher May
EVP and CFO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Yep.

David Dauch
Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing

You know, our, our target, and we've been very clear about this, is to get under 2 times leverage in the near future here. You know, what you need to understand is we're sitting on $1.5 billion of liquidity, so we're in a solid position that way. We don't have any major debt maturities due, some minor ones due in 2026, but no major debt maturities due until really calendar year 2027. We've always maintained a financial runway of about 3 years, so we don't have any, you know, thing hanging over our head in regards to, you know, financial obligations that we need to be able to support and service that way. We don't have any customers asking us about our balance sheet and, and what's going on at this point in time.

Matter of fact, they, they're sourcing us a lot of new work because of the capability and technology we have and the discipline that we've demonstrated as a management team, not just the last couple of quarters, but for years with respect to that. Obviously, we, we, we had to overcome a lot of challenges over the last five years, from the GM UAW strike in 2019, COVID in 2020, semiconductor issues in 2021, supply chain challenges in 2022, labor availability issues, but we're not here to complain about it. We're just explaining what's why it's taking us a little bit longer to get our debt paid down. We're generating a lot of cash.

We just generated almost $100 million in a quarter. We paid down debt each quarter, first quarter and second quarter of this year. We'll continue to pay down debt as we go forward. We're very focused in regards to strengthening our balance sheet and servicing that balance sheet.

Christopher May
EVP and CFO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Yeah, I think, David's comments on our focus on the balance sheet and our capital allocation priorities is, is very clear, and our actions have demonstrated that, and we're very focused as a management team on the free cash flow conversion inside the business, because once you generate that cash, that gives you that optionality to continue to pay down that debt and support a stronger balance sheet. That's where our attention is. You see us managing our CapEx very tightly. You see us managing our working capital very tightly, and you think, as David mentioned, some of the challenges over the last couple of years, coming through all of those years, continuing to accelerate our cash flow performance as a company, converting EBITDA into cash flow, top priority for us. We'll continue to do that, and that will continue to support a stronger balance sheet.

David Dauch
Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing

The encouraging side is we're starting to see volumes come back. We have a heavy fixed cost business, so that volume should be our friend going forward. At the same time, we're starting to see stability in our schedules, which we haven't seen for several years. We just need to get the stability in the operations, get back to being a cash-generating machine. We'll generate a lot of cash and pay down a lot of debt.

Ryan Brinkman
Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Yeah, you generated a lot of cash last quarter, too.

David Dauch
Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Yes.

Ryan Brinkman
Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

About, about $100 million. I'd like to ask about the UAW risk. You know, I know you don't have your own contract up for renewal this year, but just given the sort of indirect impact on the company back in 2019, how are you thinking about that, preparing for that, dimensioning that risk? It seems like the, the two sides are, you know, maybe further apart than they have been in, in the past. I saw a Facebook Live, apparently, you know, you're smiling already. The UAW might, might, might have thrown Stellantis' proposal into a, into a, a, a trash bin. You know, it just seems kind of bellicose at the moment. Maybe things will, you know, patch up, but you know, how are you thinking about that?

David Dauch
Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Well, first and foremost, let me talk just about AAM and the UAW. All of our facilities have standalone operating agreements. We've got 85 total facilities around the world. Only 7 of them are represented by the UAW here in the Midwest. Each of our plants is backed up by another plant as we go forward here. None of our contracts with the UAW are due until the calendar year, 2025, 2026 period of time. We've got some runway with respect to that. All of our plants are market competitive. That's an important thing that, that we've always insisted upon, is that you can't negotiate your future. You got to earn your future going forward by being competitive.

That's why I think some of the asks that are out there right now by the UAW are audacious, as they're calling them themselves. You know, a lot of it's going back to the 2009 period of time, which was an uncompetitive environment for the Detroit Three OEMs. What you all need to understand is the Detroit Three OEMs average $65-$70 fully loaded labor cost today. The Europeans are in that $52-$53, you know, dollar range per hour. That's wages and benefits, the Japanese are in that $49-$51. With the demands that are on the table today, if you just took them at for face value for what they've been asked for, it would grossly, I mean, at least double what's on the table today and grossly make the U.S. auto manufacturers uncompetitive.

Listen, you know, consumers like all of us in this room and people that are listening, you're gonna stretch that dollar as far as you possibly can. You want, you want to find out the, the most important value that you can get out, out of the business, and you can see the Detroit Three's lost a lot of market share over the years. They're only at 39% of the overall market today. The UAW is an important stakeholder. They're an important partner to the OEMs. The OEMs are approaching it that way. Hopefully, level heads will prevail through these negotiations going forward here. Obviously, you know, we're not directly in these negotiations, but as you said, Brian, we'll be indirectly impacted. I think we all need to anticipate that there will be some sort of work stoppage.

How big, how, how, how long, and with whom, is still TBD. Just because of, you know, the, the positioning by the UAW at this point in time is creating a, a very difficult environment to negotiate in.

Ryan Brinkman
Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Very helpful. Thanks. See if there's any questions out there in the audience. If not, I'll take the last question, which is on all-wheel drive. You know, you, I thought, it was really impressive, the degree to which you had a almost multi-year head start on the disconnecting all-wheel drive, right? Ahead of other, you know, established, you know, driveline suppliers. I was just curious, as we move now more into like an E all-wheel drive, you made some, you know, very early investments in the all-wheel drive. Where, where do you think you stack up in terms of, like, awards and, and, and, and product and technology, competitiveness as, as the industry transitions there?

David Dauch
Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing

Yeah, Ryan, as you alluded, I mean, we are the pioneers of disconnecting all-wheel drive system. Really, what that disconnecting all-wheel drive system has allowed you to lose the parasitic losses associated with the the, the, that product, really allowing you better fuel economy for the overall vehicle, just for those that don't understand what all-wheel drive is and, and, and the disconnected all-wheel drive. It engaged and disengaged when it. It engaged when it needed to and disengaged when it needed to as well. It was fine, fine that way. We, we're largest-- one of the largest suppliers of all-wheel drive products in the marketplace. We had significant business with GM, Stellantis, as well as Ford.

Those products evolved and renewed for next-generation type products, you know, going forward, with the exception of one that we're working on, right now, which we hope to have wrapped up later this year, but high confidence that we'll, we'll earn that business. As I said earlier, we've positioned our product portfolio to be successful in both eAssist as well as on full battery electric vehicles, for all the different vehicle segments: truck, crossover, all-wheel drive, as well as passenger car applications. Part of the backlog of what we're quoting, the $1.5 billion, includes some disconnecting all-wheel drive system applications from a BEV standpoint. We're confident we'll win some new business awards there.

Ryan Brinkman
Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Okay, great. It looks like we are out of time, so please join me in thanking David and Chris for all the great color and insight they shared today.

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