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Earnings Call: Q1 2020

Apr 30, 2020

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q1 2020 Ducommun earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question- and- answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star then one on your telephone. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. If you require any further assistance, please press star then zero. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Chris Reading, the Moderator. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Moderator

Thank you, and welcome to Ducommun's 2020 Q1 conference call. With me today are Steve Oswald, Chairman, President, and CEO, and Chris Wampler, Vice President, Interim Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer. I'm going to discuss certain limitations to any forward-looking statements regarding future events, projections, or performance that we may make during the prepared remarks or the question and answer session that follows. Certain statements today that are not historical facts, including any statements as to future market conditions, results of operations, and financial projections, are forward-looking statements under the federal Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and are therefore prospective. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially from the future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

Although we believe that the expectations reflected in our forward-looking statements are reasonable, we can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. In addition, estimates of future operating results are based on the company's current business, which is subject to change. Particular risks facing Ducommun include, among others, the cyclicality of our end-use markets, the impact of COVID-19 on our operations or customers, the level of U.S. government defense spending, timing of orders from our customers, legal and regulatory risks, management changes, the cost of expansion and acquisitions, and competition. These risks and others are described in our annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC, and our forward-looking statements are subject to those risks.

Statements made during this call are only as of the time made, and we do not intend to update any statements made in this presentation, except if and as required by regulatory authorities. This call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our filings with the SEC for a reconciliation of the GAAP to non-GAAP measures referenced on this call. We filed our 2020 Q1 Form 10-Q with the SEC today, and you'll find a link to all our filings with the SEC on the company's website under the investor relations tab. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Steve Oswald for a review of the operating results. Steve?

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Thank you, Chris, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today for our Q1 conference call. I also hope that you and your families are healthy and getting through this pandemic as best as possible. Today, as usual, I will give an update of the current situation at Ducommun, after which Chris Wampler will review our financials in detail. It's been a time of rapid change and adjustment at Ducommun as we manage through these challenges, with the top priority being the health and safety of our employees. I'm happy to report that despite having facilities in high impacted areas, such as Southern California and one operation south of Albany in New York State, the virus spread has mostly had zero impact on our team, with only one case reported, which we believe was not contracted at work.

We also remain diligent on putting even more effective safety protocols in place as we move forward, and our facilities are sharing best practices and ideas across the company to sustain this performance. Despite the challenges of the pandemic to the nation and the markets, Ducommun's Q1 performance was excellent. The reasons for this result, I believe, is our team has been working diligently over the past three years, improving all our operations, developing our product portfolio, driving new technologies, focusing on providing high value to customers, having an effective cost structure, and making strategic acquisitions. This has been particularly evident recently in the progress of Ducommun's defense business revenues and orders. Overall, the company's Q1 revenue rose 1% year-over-year and marked the ninth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Though not a material increase, I want to remind everyone that we improved revenue with not only impact from the virus in March, but also over $25 million of 737 MAX headwind from last year, which for the size of our P&L is impressive. As mentioned previously, Ducommun's defense business has really started showing its strength, especially in Q1. The majority of the gains in the quarter include increases from our new weapon system business, Nobles Worldwide with the Clouded Leopard armored fighting vehicle, the F-35, the Patriot missile, the Apache helicopter, F-15, F-16, and F-18, and other industry programs. In many areas of defense, we're just getting started, including some great progress in developing business in UAVs. One of the things we are most proud of and a highlight is the continued defense revenue growth of Raytheon.

As you may recall, Ducommun was the first company selected to sign a preferred supplier agreement last July with the former Raytheon Missile Systems business, now known as Raytheon Missiles & Defense. Through that relationship, I am happy to report that we have fully commercialized our first structures product for them, which is the missile case for the TOW Missile program. This is a major step forward as all of our other current deliveries for Raytheon are electronic products. This win also continues to build our value offering in the area of defense within Ducommun's Structural Systems business. We threw out the opportunity and booked a $20 million plus order for the program in Q1. In addition, another major story is the rotation of our customer rankings. Although it's only one quarter, the top five companies ranked by revenue now are Raytheon, Boeing, United Technologies, Northrop Grumman, and Spirit AeroSystems.

For context, since I arrived at the company in January of 2017, each and every quarter, Boeing and Spirit always held either the first, second, or third place. This should be a clear indicator that the diversification of our portfolio and balance is working at Ducommun, showing material strength while the commercial aerospace business is significantly impacted by the pandemic and the 737 MAX. We believe at least in the next year or two, this trending will continue in favor of defense, and the team is driving every opportunity. Also, despite the tough news and current situation with commercial aerospace, Ducommun continues to gain share at Airbus, achieving positive growth year-over-year in Q1. As you may recall, Airbus was not even a customer of the company four years ago. Though the rates are down, opportunities still exist for a larger percentage of the A320 program.

The other bright spot for the quarter ending in Q1 was the backlog of $876 million. It is sequentially down from Q4, but still a great number based on the environment, bolstered by strong orders across numerous key defense platforms, which included Apache, the TOW Missile case previously discussed, UAVs, weapon systems for ground vehicles, F-35, F-18, and others. This part of Ducommun continues to deliver. Obviously, the strength helped offset commercial aerospace order pressure. Overall, the company is off to a solid start in 2020 in both revenues and earnings. As previously communicated, Ducommun took action early in January to ensure all costs that are effective operations were proactively managed due to the 737 MAX production shutdowns that Boeing and Spirit AeroSystems announced in December 2019. Actions have continued as we now deal with the pandemic to ensure the company adjusts its costs.

You can certainly see the effectiveness of our actions within this tough environment in Q1 with both very positive gross profit and operating income percentage posted, the team has certainly done a great job. We continue to be proactive in the area of costs, I also want to mention our leadership team has the experience and the background, including managing through the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, to be effective through this difficult time as well. In regards to the Q2 outlook, we see our strong backlog in defense with the many growth programs mentioned earlier, including the strategic supplier agreement with Raytheon providing year-over-year growth. The Nobles acquisition will also help provide additional inorganic growth, with the unprecedented challenges of commercial aero, along with the 737 MAX, the company revenue should be lower in Q2 in the range of 16%-20% year-over-year.

We think that within the current circumstances, a very good effort, also expect operating income percentage for the quarter to be between 5.5% and 6%. As we look to the H2 of the year, we estimate that defense revenue will improve again, but the business overall will be down year-over-year by 8%-12% due to commercial aerospace. Operating income, we believe at this time, will be between 6%-7%. As you saw, though, in the Q1, overcoming $25 million plus for MAX and the beginning of the pandemic, all the hard work the past three years, including process improvements, restructuring, leadership development, cost discipline, and others, have clearly made a material difference. Despite the short-term outlook, the business has a great long-term future. Now let me provide you some additional color on our markets, products, and programs.

Beginning with our military and space sector, we posted Q1 revenue of $100.8 million, up 32% versus 2019. We drove sales across a broad variety of defense platforms, including nearly every aspect of our product portfolio. As mentioned earlier, we saw an increase in the demand for our military fixed-wing aircraft programs, with particular strength in shipments for the F-15, F-16, F-18, and F-35, as well as top-line expansion for helicopters like the Apache. In addition, the Patriot Missile system rose again this quarter. We saw significant growth across many other military and space applications.

We are well positioned for further growth across our defense platform over the next three quarters in all sectors and ended the Q1 with a backlog roughly $474 million for defense, up an impressive 36% year-over-year. I'm also happy to announce that Ducommun was recognized as the Black Hawk Supplier of the Year in 2019 by Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin company. Within our commercial aerospace operations, Q1 sales declined year-over-year to $62.5 million, but we did see continued share gain at Airbus, and despite the rates, posted year-over-year gains with this customer. Ducommun also continues to work on adjusting costs and managing the downturn, and is well-positioned once rates start to stabilize and in the long term. Ducommun's expansion with Airbus since 2017 is clearly helping and puts important balance in our portfolio.

The Airbus A320 and Airbus A220 families represented a larger and larger share, both directly and indirectly, in Ducommun's commercial revenue in Q1. The backlog within our commercial aerospace sector stood at roughly $376 million at the end of the Q1, with the majority of decline for the 737 MAX program. At this point, I'll turn it over to Chris.

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

Thank you, Steve. Good afternoon, everyone. As a reminder, please see the company's filings and Q1 earnings release for further description of information mentioned on today's call. As Steve discussed, we were pleased with the Q1's overall results, even as we face the dual challenges of lower 737 MAX production and the growing economic impact from the COVID-19 pandemic. We feel confident that our ability to flex production parameters and rapidly evolve our lean operating structure to external conditions will serve us well in the months and quarters ahead. I'll move to the details of our overall results. Revenue for the Q1 of 2020 was $173.5 million, versus $172.6 million in the Q1 of 2019. This performance was driven by $24.2 million of higher sales within the military and space sector, partially offset by $23 million of lower revenue from our commercial aerospace customers.

Industrial sales were essentially flat year-over-year. As mentioned in our year-end earnings call, we expected our military and space business to directionally offset the headwind in Boeing 737 MAX commercial demand. Ducommun's overall backlog at the end of the Q1 was approximately $876 million, near record levels. Growth in the military and space backlog continues to drive a sustained strong backlog. As a reminder, we define backlog as potential revenue based on customer purchase orders and long-term agreements with firm fixed prices and expected delivery dates of 24 months or less. Once again posted solid gross profit for the quarter, as gross margins rose to 21.2% from 20.7% in the prior year's comparable period. The increase year-over-year was due to favorable mix and lower compensation and benefit costs. Gross profit rose to $36.8 million from $35.7 million last year.

We do expect downward pressure on gross profit as we move through 2020 and we manage through the environment of reduced commercial aerospace demand. SG&A was $23.2 million in the Q1 versus $22.8 million in the Q1 of 2019. The company reported operating income for the Q1 of $13.6 million or 7.8% of revenue, compared to $12.8 million or 7.5% of revenue in the prior year period. The year-over-year improvement was due to the increased revenue and the higher gross margins. Interest expense was $4.2 million in the Q1 versus $4.4 million in the prior year period, reflecting the favorable impact of lower interest rates on our new credit facilities, more than offsetting the higher amount of debt outstanding during the quarter. The increased debt outstanding during the quarter was primarily due to funding the company's acquisition of Nobles in October 2019.

The company reported net income for the Q1 of $7.9 million or $0.67 per diluted share, compared to net income of $7.5 million or $0.64 per diluted share for the Q1 of 2019. The year-over-year increase was primarily due to higher revenue, stronger gross margins, as I previously mentioned. Adjusted EBITDA for the Q1 of 2020 was $23.2 million or 13.4% of revenue, compared to $21.1 million or 12.2% of revenue for the comparable period in 2019, an increase of 120- basis points. Let me turn to the segment results. Our Electronic Systems -segment posted revenue of $98.1 million in the Q1 of 2020 versus $84.2 million in the prior year period. These results reflect a $12.9 million increase in sales with the company's military and space customers and a modest uptick in revenue across our commercial aerospace platforms.

Electronic Systems posted operating income for the Q1 of $15.1 million or 15.4% of revenues versus $9.2 million or 10.9% of revenues in the prior year period. The improved performance reflects favorable manufacturing volumes and product mix. Our Structural Systems segment posted revenues of $75.4 million in the Q1 of 2020 versus $88.4 million last year. The year-over-year decrease was due to $24.3 million of lower sales across our commercial aerospace applications, reflecting current demand dynamics, partially offset by $11.3 million of higher revenue within the company's military and space markets. Structural Systems posted operating income for the quarter of $5.4 million or 7.2% of revenue, compared to $10.5 million or 11.9% of revenue last year. The year-over-year operating margin decline reflected unfavorable manufacturing volumes and product mix, partially offset by lower compensation and benefit costs. Corporate general and administrative expense.

CG&A expenses for the Q1 of 2020 were $6.9 million or 4% of revenue versus $6.9 million and 4% of revenue as well in 2019. Turning to liquidity and capital resources. We have available liquidity of $115 million. We drew down $50 million on our $100 million revolver toward the end of the Q1 in an abundance of caution as the uncertainty grew related to the potential impacts of COVID-19. We held this drawdown in cash on our balance sheet at quarter end. We used $12 million of cash from operations during the Q1 of 2020 compared with $1.7 million during the prior year period. The Q1 is historically our weakest cash flow quarter. We operate with significant performance-based variable compensation, and the annual incentive for the prior year is paid out in the Q1 of the subsequent year.

Additionally, accounts receivable and inventory investments partially offset by higher net income added to the outflow from operations. We are in full compliance with the covenants of our credit facilities, which are not scheduled to expire until 2024 and 2025. As a reminder, we have a covenant light credit facility with a leverage ratio covenant ceiling of 4.75. Our debt to EBITDA was 3.0 at quarter end. We have reinforced our focus on cash generation with our lean operations and lean structure, and as we are restricting discretionary spending and optimizing working capital in this volatile environment. As a result, we expect to generate positive free cash flow during the remainder of 2020. In terms of capital expenditures, we spent $3.9 million during the Q1 and anticipate spending between $12 million and $14 million in 2020.

In alignment with our cash conservation initiative, this anticipated spending will result in a capital expenditure decrease of more than 20% from our 2019 capital spending level. We're again pleased with our quarterly performance and remain cautiously optimistic about the future, even as we manage through the uncertainty of the COVID-19 impacts, which create a very challenging operating environment. I'll now turn it back over to Steve for his closing remarks.

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Thanks, Chris. Well, I hope we provided some important information for shareholders today as we work through 2020. I thought the Q1 was excellent despite the challenges, and believe we have a lot of runway in the long term, especially in defense and other areas such as Airbus. I would also add that we do have the right footprint, cost structure, discipline, and operational leadership to continue development in the face of this current crisis. I also want to thank our customers, shareholders, and all of our other business partners as we work through these difficult times together. In closing, and most important, I'd like to take this time to tell the Ducommun employees that I'm proud of them and all their efforts dealing with the many challenges from the pandemic.

Roughly 90% of our team members show up at our operations every day, though stressful, get the job done for our customers and our nation. I also want to thank their families for the support. It is never easy when loved ones leave the home with shelter in place orders from the authorities. We've also given out $700,000 to local area charities where we operate. We'll add another $300,000 to reach $1 million in donations from the company to help our neighbors. Thank you for listening. Let's go to questions.

Operator

As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star then one on your touchtone telephone. To withdraw your question, press the pound key. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Edward Marshall with Sidoti & Company. Your line is now open. Once again, your first question comes from Edward Marshall with Sidoti & Company. Your line is now open.

Edward Marshall
Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Was on mute. Hey, Steve, Chris, how are you?

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Good. How are you, Ed?

Edward Marshall
Analyst, Sidoti & Company

I hope your families are doing well.

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Yeah. You too.

Edward Marshall
Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Thanks. Last quarter, we talked about the MAX program, and I just wanted to touch base on the 216 shipsets that were expected for 2020. Are you anticipating that you'd ship those this year, or has that been pushed to the right as a result of the COVID?

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Ed, right now, we're at 216. As far as we're working right now with our customers, but I don't really have any. Chris, you have anything else on that or? I don't think we do.

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

No. I think beyond, if we all listened to Boeing's call yesterday, we've been in contact with them. Certainly, from our year-end call till now, there's been a little more caution that's been put out there, but they were fairly confident on their call yesterday that they worked through the slow ramp-up that they've got in front of them this year to hit back toward a 31 rate as they get to 2021.

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Yeah. We have no new news yet.

Edward Marshall
Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Okay. As you plan production, first did you restart production and you talked about maybe a more even build throughout the year to look at your operating costs. Did that occur in Q1 and do you anticipate that you'll start that in Q2?

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

We actually did that in Q1. We got out of the gate early because obviously we got the news in December about the shutdowns, right? By the middle of January, we already had furloughs in place and lots of other things. We managed it. We're working closely with them. We managed in Q1, Q2, again, we just continue to be as proactive as we can on the cost side.

Edward Marshall
Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Got it. You talked about the electronics margin potentially getting higher than the 10% that it did in Q4 that you posted. This quarter, you executed toward that. I'm just trying to get a sense of maybe what's embedded in that number. How repeatable is that? It sounds like it might be taking a step back. Then I have a follow-up for them.

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

Yeah, no, Ed, I think it is a step forward for us, for sure. Did we expect it to take the leap quite that much? Don't know. That was a nice leap this year, this quarter in Q1. Can we sustain it? Yes, if the volumes do. The key here was getting a little more volume at several of the performance centers, which dropped certainly much stronger than I know we've mentioned as we've gone through. Also getting all of the performance centers up to a more efficient level, and we sort of had that breakthrough as well. Q1, the shine that Electronic Systems had on it in Q1 certainly helped us balance out the quarter. We're going to look for that as we move forward.

Yes, there'll be a little more headwind. Q2 is a little bit, as Steve alluded to, is going to be a tough one overall. We do look for electronics to continue to keep a very strong profile.

Edward Marshall
Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Maybe I can ask one step further. The guidance that you provided, whether it's on the quarter or on the year, could you talk about what's embedded from that OPM, the operating profit margin, for those two business segments that take this kind of roll-up to the consolidated number that you're looking for?

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

Well, I think, I'll take a little bit of it. First, Ed, we're benefiting from scale on the electronic side, obviously being driven by defense, right? Our operations are really tight. We're obviously benefiting from that volume. That's certainly going to help us. On the other side is, as I mentioned earlier, on the commercial side and in those factories, we're very proactive on costs. We know how to do this, and we're doing it. That's why we're seeing fairly nice numbers, though the revenue's down.

Edward Marshall
Analyst, Sidoti & Company

The 5.5%, 6%, what's embedded at the segment level? That's kind of what I was getting at.

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

Yeah. Directionally, Ed, the volume, Q2 is going to be a tough one to repeat for electronics. I don't know that it would stay quite there. You saw the step back in structures in Q1's operating margin. It's going to be a challenge to take that one much higher. I think, if you build it out more of what you see in Q1 with electronics until we get our volume back to this level we were at, that's probably a fair look.

Edward Marshall
Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Got it. Thanks by the way for providing me out the guidance. I think this is probably the first time I can remember Ducommun doing that, thank you.

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

Yeah. Well, we appreciate that. We know it's difficult. Yeah, that's why I wanted to do it.

Edward Marshall
Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Yeah. I got to imagine visibility's pretty hard for you guys right now.

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

We do our best.

Edward Marshall
Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Maybe a little bit of an easier question then. If I were thinking about your interest expense and tax, would there be any meaningful changes from what we saw in Q1? I got to assume no.

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

Well, from what you saw in Q1, yes. I'll take them both. Interest expense, certainly the whole market changed a little bit as we got toward the end of Q1. With our variable debt facilities, we should come through a little cleaner in Q2 through Q4 than the $4.2 million that you saw get there in Q1. Definitely from where we were at the year-end call, it's a more favorable interest rate environment, and so that number should probably be more in the $4 million a quarter versus what we were talking about at the year-end call. That'll help out at that line.

On the tax side, I think we've gotten to a pretty decent repeat process on where we're at under the new tax laws over the last couple of years, and just pointing you to a 19%-20% full year is probably still the right answer. We definitely caught some favorability with some of the SBC tax laws hit in Q1 that were a discrete item for us. Generally, it should be back to that 19%-20% as we go through the year.

Edward Marshall
Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Okay. Thank you so much. Stay safe and be well.

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

You too, Ed. Thanks.

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Thanks, Ed. Appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ken Herbert with Canaccord. Your line is now open.

Ken Herbert
Analyst, Canaccord

Hi, Steve and Chris. A really nice quarter.

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

Thank you.

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Thanks, Ken.

Ken Herbert
Analyst, Canaccord

Steve, I just wanted to first ask on the cost takeout in the Q1. Can you maybe comment on how much of this is permanent, maybe versus temporary? How much sort of buffer or excess capacity are you going to have to carry this year on the cost side in order to support max rates back up to 30 next year, or depending upon when Boeing gets to those numbers?

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Yeah. Ken, thanks. Look, first obviously, we had to make some tough decisions on furloughs, and we try to do the best we can with that, but the orders aren't there and the outlook isn't where it needs to be. We furlough, and then if there's no real light as far as being able to bring people back, we do something for them and then we move forward. I think on the people side, we've got a good handle on it. It's variable. The other thing I'll say is that, we really try to drive low capital intensity where we can. We do have obviously operations that carry maybe some more machines than others. I think overall, as you can see from our margins, that we do a pretty good job managing the overheads and we manage the variable costs.

I think that throughout the year, again w e've been through this before, management, myself. As long as you're proactive and stay ahead of it, like we used to say at a company I used to work at, you're usually in good shape. I think overall this year, we're going to be okay on both ends.

Ken Herbert
Analyst, Canaccord

Okay. I guess it's fair to say that you won't need to be looking to add much cost to support higher rates on the MAX, if and when Boeing is able to execute and push that up.

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Yeah, that's good. I want to confirm that, yes. We're in good shape. That's a check mark on that.

Ken Herbert
Analyst, Canaccord

Okay, perfect. You've talked, obviously, a lot about the defense side, and you're clearly benefiting from a lot of the actions you've made and initiatives there. What are you seeing, Steve, in terms of your customers and payments? I mean, are you actually starting to see a benefit in terms of any accelerated, either contract awards or payments from the government or through the prime contractors? I mean, there's been obviously a lot of talk about ensuring that the industrial base on the defense side is well-supported in light of COVID-19. What are you seeing on that front?

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

I'll take that one, Ken. There's chatter that some of that may be happening, but reality is, we're seeing a lot of business as usual on the defense side. There can be a contract or a situation where we might get quicker agreement on an advance payment to cover some long lead time item or something like that. Overall, it's essentially business as usual on the defense side and what we're seeing on the cash flow.

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Yeah. No change here, Ken. Pretty much been the same thing. I know there's been some news about Lockheed and some other folks, but at Ducommun, it's just the status quo.

Ken Herbert
Analyst, Canaccord

Okay. Well, that's great. If I could, just one final comment. I know obviously commercial markets are a bit pressured today, but can you maybe help to just sort of level set us or quantify where you are with the VersaCore product line? Because I know obviously you put a lot of resources into that, and it was obviously some great share gain and growth, but what's the outlook for that product line now, and what are you seeing there?

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Yeah, sure. Thanks for that question. Just for everybody on the phone, VersaCore, we've been working on it for a few years. We commercialized it, and now we have it fully operational, actually, in our Guaymas, Mexico facility. We started with a small fairing called the beaver tail on the LEAP engine, and now we're working in other areas, such as the blocker doors. We're right now in the middle of that. Obviously, it's been pushed off a bit, but we are still planning on fulfilling that commercialization target probably H2 for the blocker doors, Ken, which is a majority of that contract. Without a big disruption, we feel like coming out of the end of this year, we're going to at least have a $15 million run rate on VersaCore. Now we're looking at other things with other companies.

We think it's got a big future. We think it's check the box with Guaymas, check the box this fall with the blocker doors, which is a big part of the sell, as you know. Then we are having conversations with other OEMs for new things that we can maybe talk about later in the year.

Ken Herbert
Analyst, Canaccord

Great to hear. Thanks a lot, Steve and Chris. Talk to you soon.

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

Thank you, Ken.

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Thanks for your information. Appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mike Crawford with B. Riley FBR. Your line is now open.

Mike Crawford
Analyst, B. Riley FBR

Thank you, Steve. I'm glad to hear that you think you still have the right footprint after all the actions taken previously, and no need, sounds like, to do any further kind of shuffling. Could you couch the expected gross margin decline with fixed cost absorption and capacity utilization level within your existing footprint?

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

Yeah, I'll take that one, Mike. We do have sort of the tale of two cities here with the different setup of the two businesses with Electronic Systems and Structural Systems. Where I think you're pointing to is clearly on the structure side, as we've got the headwind, that's there, what is that going to translate to us? I'll say it this way. A lot of reasons that the performance center structure we have still works well for us. It does allow us to flex pretty quickly. The fixed cost structure that we do have at any one facility isn't so heavy that we could handle significant headwind and still be able to make money at a various performance center. That's really what this first four months of the year has been about. As the new information comes forward, and most of it's been headwind, clearly, on the structure side.

As it comes forward, what does that mean? Back to sort of Ed's question earlier, what's that going to do to our approach on how we want to build, how we want to fulfill the different products and being able to flex it that way. With it being said, that's one of the benefits we have with where we're at on how we've got the structure set up, to your point. That's why we've not talked about consolidating physical footprint at this point. It's just been more around flexing and trying to scale to it as best we can.

Mike Crawford
Analyst, B. Riley FBR

Okay. Thank you. Chris, given the decline in revenue for the rest of the year, I imagine you'll be taking in some of these working capital accounts and really having outsized free cash flow relative to EBITDA. That should even further improve your balance sheet, where net leverage is now down to just three times. You're getting to a level where the company could do more M&A to further accelerate this move up market into strong niche applications with high margins and few competitors. To that end, what does that pipeline look like? Are people answering phones or just not able to in this environment?

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

Is the question more on the working capital lead in or on the acquisition tail part of that, Mike?

Mike Crawford
Analyst, B. Riley FBR

Well, question one, am I thinking the right way in terms of free cash flow? Part two would be, is M&A at kind of a standstill?

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

Okay. Let me take the first part. Yeah, Mike, absolutely. As you laid it out, there's uncertainty with sort of each piece of that puzzle. If they happen the way you said it, then absolutely, the end game would be some additional free cash flow. I think a big part of it is, as we mentioned, the messaging you heard from Steve related to top line and profitability here on April 30 is very different than where it was in February. That part of the equation and how profitable we will be is a key part of that as well, as is some of that give and take between what we drop through from the facilities.

To the working capital question, again, we've got tail of two cities, so there'll be some places, as we look to grow the business on the defense side this year, where there's going to be some investment there, while hopefully pulling down some of the working capital taken on the structure side as we, again, right size over the next several months.

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Mike, on the acquisition, certainly right now we're in a pause phase. We still have our people engaged and in place. We'll see how the H2 looks in early 2021. Right now, for the most part, we're on pause probably for the next few months at least.

Mike Crawford
Analyst, B. Riley FBR

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Okay. Thanks, Mike.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you'll need to press star then one on your touchtone telephone. Our next question comes from Michael Ciarmoli with SunTrust. Your line is open.

Michael Ciarmoli
Analyst, SunTrust

Hey, good evening. Good evening, guys. How are you guys doing? Thanks for taking the question.

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Good.

Michael Ciarmoli
Analyst, SunTrust

Hope everybody is safe and healthy. Maybe just some housekeeping ones first. Chris, would you guys disclose organic revenue growth in the quarter or tell us what the Nobles contribution was?

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

Sure. Just so you know, it's less than 5%, okay? I'll leave it there, Mike.

Michael Ciarmoli
Analyst, SunTrust

Got it. Just on the MAX, did you guys actually restart, and are you shipping product on the program now?

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Basically, we worked through the Q1 the best we could, obviously. We do have relationships with Boeing for certain products that you really just can't make one a week, okay? We have been working with them on ship in place and some other things. I'd say it's a bit of a mix, but we're certainly getting started now with Spirit. Obviously, we need to give these guys time to get going. We're on a bin program with Spirit, so once things start moving forward, the bins will start filling up again. Yeah, we are moving forward.

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

We did have a decent stretch in Q1 there, Mike, and into the start of Q2 here, where all those temporary shutdowns did impact us. I mean, they did impact our ability to ship. Yep, absolutely.

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Absolutely. Yeah.

Michael Ciarmoli
Analyst, SunTrust

Maybe that's a good lead into, especially with the comment on Spirit with the bin programs. Obviously, appreciate the guidance and obviously nobody really knows what's going on here. Do you expect further pressure from either supply chain realignment to these lower rates? Do you get a sense that there's a lot of buffer stock in the system that has to be drawn down? I guess as I'm looking at this, you guys already had the Max headwind built into this year. Do you expect any of these pressures, even something like the A7, does it last into 2021, as some of these rates are coming down pretty significantly?

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Mike, as I sit here right now, my answer overall would be no. Okay? As far as I think we are going to see some production. Who knows for sure, right? I think that there'll be activity. I think we're going to continue to roll forward. I think that the A220 reduction goes a little further out is okay. I think overall, I would say at a top level, it'd be no.

Michael Ciarmoli
Analyst, SunTrust

Okay. Last one, just on the Electronic Systems segment. Obviously, defense business as usual across the board. As you guys are looking at your product lines, the demands there, do you see any risk in that supply chain, either from COVID-related disruptions or any of your suppliers in different geographies dealing with facility shutdowns, anything that would pose a threat to your planned growth there or expected shipments deeper in the supply chain?

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

Yeah. I think what I would point to, Mike, is as Steve mentioned, the whole team's lived through something like this before. We're not trying to be naïve, and definitely there are data points where we can have an issue. It could be a supplier here, it could be a push out of a supply there or a shutdown. Having said that, when you look at a high level, the answer is no. Again, benefited from the various ways that we've got the performance center set up, where the product lines are set up, and how much, on the supply chain side, how invested we are with any one particular. We've got a diverse supply chain, so if we hit a bump in the road with one, we can shift, and we can keep moving.

Overall, it's not a prevalent problem that we see right now, but we still got road to go. Yeah, we don't see anything material right now, Mike. That's right. Yeah.

Michael Ciarmoli
Analyst, SunTrust

Okay. Even on inventory, it sounds like that could potentially be a source of cash for you as you just right-size to new levels. You don't envision having to stockpile anything or do any pre-buying there?

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

No. No.

Michael Ciarmoli
Analyst, SunTrust

Okay. Perfect. All right. Thanks, guys. Stay safe.

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

Thanks, Mike. Okay. Appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ken Herbert with Canaccord. Your line is now open.

Ken Herbert
Analyst, Canaccord

Yeah. Hi, Steve and Chris. Just a couple of real quick follow-ups. On the free cash flow discussion, it sounds like from your comments that the Q2's likely a use of cash again, we're still anticipating being able to generate some cash flow here in Q2 and then build from there, the momentum as we go through the rest of the year. Okay. Oh, that's great. Second, considering where rates are going to go on 787 and sort of a 35%-40% volume reduction between Boeing and Airbus, do you see any potential risk to goodwill or intangibles when I think about LDS in particular and some of this exposure to the 787?

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

Yeah. To answer that question, as the COVID pandemic has taken hold, like all companies, we've gone through a lot of scenario planning and looking at what risks are out there. That includes physical assets as well as intangibles and goodwill. No, as those reporting units are evaluated, and we look at what's in front of us right now with various scenarios, we're comfortable with having quite a bit of cushion before we would have to get into that from where we sit right now. Clearly, every quarter's going to be a new quarter. Right now, we don't anticipate any issues. I feel good about it, Ken. I feel good about it. Yeah.

Ken Herbert
Analyst, Canaccord

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We have a follow-up from Edward Marshall with Sidoti. Your line is now open.

Edward Marshall
Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Two quick follow-ups. One, we're focused on kind of the near term with commercial, but as we step to the next generation, let's say 777, 777X, and we always think of Ducommun as narrow body, but with the larger aircraft coming through, I know you do quite a bit of work on the Dreamliner, what's your thought on the 777X and maybe Ducommun's participation on that program?

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

It's light. 777X is light. We do have a few things on there. I think that if you look at just in general, you look at our single aisle bookings or single aisle revenue versus wide body, we generally run 2x. Okay? We're generally 2x, and I think we do have things on the 777X, but we're definitely in the 2x range, much more players in single aisle, and that's going to continue.

Edward Marshall
Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Got it. The second part of that is, any further developments on the topic we brought up last quarter on wind energy and LDS? Sorry.

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Yeah. Look, yeah, well, first, we love LDS. It's been a great thing for the company. It was our first acquisition that the team and I did together, so it's been a great thing for us. We've got product in the field. We're working with at least one company on doing some trials, and we should have more information at probably mid-year.

Edward Marshall
Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Got it. Thanks very much.

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We have a follow-up from Michael Ciarmoli with SunTrust. Your line is now open.

Michael Ciarmoli
Analyst, SunTrust

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking this one.

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

Sure.

Michael Ciarmoli
Analyst, SunTrust

Steve, I think you mentioned some progress on UAVs in defense. Can you maybe just elaborate there what you're seeing?

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Yeah. I want to put in there because I think we're going to be talking more about in the future. I can't disclose it right now. Just to let you know, I did tell you that we did book an order in UAVs. I've got to be careful here. It's not commercialized yet. I don't have authority to say anything. I thought it was important to put it in here because it's a new area for us, and it's always important for the shareholders and analysts to know that we're moving forward in that area. Should be good.

Michael Ciarmoli
Analyst, SunTrust

Can you give us a hint, structure side or Electronic Systems?

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Electronics.

Michael Ciarmoli
Analyst, SunTrust

Okay.

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

That's all I can give you.

Michael Ciarmoli
Analyst, SunTrust

Perfect.

Christopher D. Wampler
VP, Interim CFO and Treasurer, and Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Ducommun

That's it.

Michael Ciarmoli
Analyst, SunTrust

Thanks, guys.

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

See you, Mike.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, there appears to be no further callers in the queue, so I'll turn the call over to Mr. Oswald for any closing remarks.

Stephen G. Oswald
Chairman, President, and CEO, Ducommun

Thank you very much. I want to thank everybody. Obviously, thank everyone that joined us today. Thank our analysts. Just to wrap up here, thought we had a great conversation. I appreciate, again, the support. We're all working arm in arm here, trying to do the best we can, but most important, keep our people safe, help out our communities, and obviously take care of our customers. I want to wish everybody good health and safety, and we'll look forward to seeing you, or talking to you soon. Take care.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation on today's conference. This does conclude your program, and you may now disconnect.