Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)
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Jefferies Global Industrial Conference 2024

Sep 4, 2024

Greg Konrad
SVP, Jefferies

Good afternoon, everyone. My name is Greg Conrad, SVP on the Aerospace and Defense Equity Research Team here at Jefferies. Welcome to our annual Jefferies Industrial Conference in New York City. Today, we're very lucky to have Ducommun with us, and Suman Mookerji, CFO of Ducommun. There will be a presentation, and time permitting, maybe some Q&A. Thanks, Suman.

Suman Mookerji
CFO, Ducommun

Thank you, Greg. Appreciate the opportunity to participate here in this conference. I'll start off here with some disclosures, get them out of the way. So our presentation does have some forward-looking statements, which are subject to risk factors, which may cause actual results to differ from what we're saying here. You can get a full description of all our risk factors in our 10-K filed with the SEC. And that does with this page, we'll get into the real meat of the presentation here. I'll start with a quick snapshot of our business, so give you a current view of where we are. And if you look at our LTM numbers, we are a $776 million revenue business with 14.1% EBITDA.

And in a little bit, I'll give you some more context about where we've come from, as well as where we're taking the business going forward. If you look at the breakup of our revenues, you will find that 53% comes from military and space. So it still is a large portion of our business with key platforms, including the Joint Strike Fighter, the F/A-18, Apache, SPY-6, as well as the ESSM, Standard Missiles . On the commercial aerospace side, key platforms, which is 42% of our revenue, key platforms include the 737 MAX, the A320, as well as the A220.

We also have meaningful content on the 787 , which is kind of the leading twin-aisle platform for us. That being said, narrow bodies are still more than half of our commercial aerospace business, and our position on these platforms bode well for us as build rates ramp up. Also wanted to highlight on this page our customers, and you'll find that we are a tier one provider. We are working directly with the aircraft OEMs, Boeing, Airbus, Gulfstream. We're also working directly with the largest defense primes, including Raytheon, Northrop, Lockheed, and others, so we do operate at that kind of highest level, and have relationships and senior relationships with these large businesses.

To give you a view of how we report, and you see that we have two segments here, our electronics segment as well as our structure segment. Key product lines within our electronics segments, and I'll start with the manufacturing services businesses first. We have ruggedized interconnects. We also have complex circuit card assemblies, and then we have our engineered products businesses within electronic systems, which include human machine interface products, such as push-button switches, panels, and bezels, which go inside the cockpit of both military and commercial aircraft. And then also lightning protection products, which protect both the military and commercial aircraft radomes from lightning strike.

And then finally, our motion control business, which makes motors and resolvers for high-end applications, including the Mars Rover. So that's the electronics portion of our business. Moving then to the right of the page, our structural systems business, where we have within kind of the manufacturing services portion of our structural systems, our titanium hot forming and superplastic forming franchise, along with the aluminum stretch forming capability that we have for large contoured aluminum parts, including fuselage skins. We have then kind of the engineered product businesses within our structural systems segment, which include Nobles Worldwide, which is our ammunition handling business that we acquired at the end of 2018, which makes ammunition chutes and handling systems.

We have MagSeal, which is a magnetic seal business, the only magnetic seal designer and manufacturer for in the A&D industry globally. And then we also have Certified Thermoplastics, which is an extruded thermoplastics business we bought back in 2018. And then lastly, we have BLR Aerospace, which makes aerodynamic structures which allow rotorcraft to operate at higher altitudes and carry heavier loads than they would typically be certified for. So those are the different kind of product lines embedded within our portfolio. So I started off giving you kind of our revenue and EBITDA metrics, but I wanted to share a chart which contextualizes where we've come from.

The current management team under the leadership of our Chairman and CEO, Steve Oswald, has been in place since early 2017. If you look at our market cap over that period, you can see that we have tripled our market cap in that seven-year timeframe. If you look at our EBITDA, that's doubled during that timeframe. And, you know, keep in mind, we've kind of been through a pandemic and production rates are still nowhere near on commercial aerospace platforms where they were pre-pandemic. Our adjusted EBITDA percentage has expanded by four hundred basis points during this period of time. We've had really strong performance despite the headwinds that we've faced and continue to face and we feel really good about that.

So, where are we gonna take the business from here, right? So we at the end of 2022, in December 2022, we laid out a five-year plan for the company that we called Vision 2027. And, the numbers here on this chart are taken straight out of that December 2022 investor presentation. And what we committed to do was to grow the business from an approximately $700 million dollar revenue business to close to a billion dollars, so between $950 million and $1 billion in revenue by 2027. We also committed to expand margins from 13%- 18%.

And, you know, if you look at our margin profile in the last two quarters, we were at just under 14.5% in Q1 of this year and north of 15% in Q2 of this year. So really strong performance in margins, and we are tracking to the commitments that we made as part of Vision 2027. I do want to kind of give you some more detail around the key pillars that make up the revenue growth story, as well as the margin expansion story.

On the revenue growth portion first, the key drivers are going to include the growth in commercial aerospace with growing build rates, continued growth in defense, which we've now again started seeing in the last couple of quarters, and then strategic acquisitions. Strategic acquisitions of engineered product businesses, which we have said is key part of our growth strategy here, and will also change the mix of our revenues to have a larger content of these proprietary product businesses, and I'll talk about that a bit more here in a moment. On the margin expansion side, the key pillars of getting from 13%- 18% include, again, the growth in engineered products, which I talked about through strategic acquisitions.

These are higher margin businesses that we both organically and inorganically intend to grow, and therefore expand our margins. Secondly, the cost reduction actions that we are taking in our manufacturing services businesses, by reducing our footprint, and consolidating facilities, and moving work to other existing U.S. facilities, or where it makes sense, to our expanded Mexican facility, and then finally, the third prong of the margin expansion story are the pricing actions, where we make sure that we are getting paid for the value we provide to our customers, as well as the operating leverage that we expect to see as commercial aerospace returns to pre-pandemic levels, and our factories, which we're operating at, you know, 57 MAX per aircraft per month, get back to similar levels over the next few years.

So next, I would like to spend some more time on each of these key pillars and give you some additional detail. And I'll start with the margin expansion story. So I just talked about kind of our focus on acquisitions and expanding our engineered product businesses. Here, on one page, you can see all our engineered product businesses. The ones with the yellow starbursts are the acquisitions that we've made under the current management team in the last six-to-seven years. These are all leaders in niche segments of the aerospace and defense market. They have proprietary designs. They own the design IP of the products they make. They're spec'd into sole source platforms, and they own the aftermarket for their products.

And we like these kinds of businesses, and we have steadily, over the last six to seven years, continued growing that portfolio that we have within our company with acquisitions. I give you some examples. You can see the acquisition of Nobles we did back in 2019, which makes ammunition chutes and handling systems. So they are the leading provider of these ammunition chutes in the Western world, and since our acquisition, have expanded also into providing full handling systems. The business has grown significantly under our ownership with these new product introductions, and margins have continued to rise as the aftermarket has also been a great source of revenue and provided us with great opportunities for margin expansion. Another business we bought-...

In the last three years was a business called MagSeal, a magnetic sealing business. As I said, they're the only mag company with the capability and engineering prowess to be making magnetic seals for use in aerospace and defense applications. And that business has grown dramatically, almost two X since we have bought it back in twenty twenty-one. And again, EBITDA margins have risen dramatically as volumes have grown, the aftermarket has expanded as well as we're seeing additional product opportunities there as we continue to roll out new products on that front.

Great accumulation of these niche businesses and product lines with that are leaders in each of their respective spaces and continuing to become a greater part of our business. If you look back at 2017, these businesses constituted only 9% of our revenue. In 2022, when we laid out our Vision 2027 plan, they were about 15% of our revenue. Today, they are north of 20% of our revenue, and our strategy and our plan that we are tracking against is to take them to in excess of 25% of our revenue by 2027. In turn, this will also increase the aftermarket content in our revenues, which were as low as 6% back in 2017.

We're up to 10% in 2022, and we have a target of exceeding 15% of our revenues from the aftermarket by 2027, so as we work on our engineered product strategy, we also want to make sure that we are deriving value from our manufacturing services businesses, and one of the key elements of our EBITDA expansion plan, as I said earlier, was footprint consolidation. We are in the process and close to completing the shutdown of two of our facilities, one in Monrovia, California, and the second in Berryville, Arkansas. Work from these facilities are moving or have already moved to existing U.S. facilities, or will move to our Guaymas, Mexico, facility, which is operational. We've been in Guaymas, Mexico, for over 10 years. We know how to operate there.

We have both the physical footprint and the human resources to be able to continue to grow and expand that operation, and we're going to do that and bring costs down. On our Q2 earnings call, we said that we have already seen run rate synergies from these facility consolidation of $2 million-$3 million by the end of Q2. And we expect to see run rate savings get to $11 million-$13 million annually from this footprint consolidation as we move into 2025 and start producing product in these in this low-cost location. Moving next to kind of revenue growth, and and I touched on two key items that are going to drive the revenue growth for us. One was on the commercial aerospace side, and second was growth in defense.

On the commercial aerospace side, you can see our content on marquee platforms, both the 737 MAX as well as the 787. We have significant content on both those platforms, and as production rates ramp up, we expect to see a strong pickup in our commercial aerospace revenues on both those platforms. Airbus has also been a great success for us over the last six or seven years. Prior to that, we didn't have any revenues from them. That business has continued to grow.

We recently won a D2P Detailed Parts Partner award from Airbus for our excellent performance and continue to pursue various opportunities to expand our business with Airbus and our content on these key platforms, including the A320, as well as the A220, which is an important platform for us. On the defense side, the prime offloading strategy has been a key element of growth for us. We've talked about that on our earnings calls.

For those who are not as familiar with the story, what we do is work with our key customers, the defense primes, to take work that's non-core to them out of their higher-cost facilities and into our lower-cost footprint with our lower overhead structure, so that there is a win-win for both them as well as for us. We have established a strong track record of being able to deliver and provide 100% quality to these defense primes so that they are confident that by allowing things to move out of their factory, they're not losing control over their supply chain and their ability to deliver to their customers. That's really important to these primes, and we've been able to do that.

And this will help us over the next three or four years to be able to continue to grow at or above the rate of defense spending and will be a key tailwind for us on the defense side. Finally, I wanted to give you some color on our manufacturing services businesses. I talked about everything around our engineered products strategy and those businesses, and how they're important to us. I did cover our cost reduction actions around our manufacturing services, but also wanted to kind of end here with giving you some flavor of what those businesses are.

And they aren't, you know, a typical build-to-print business, because as you will see from our margin profile, we don't have the margins of a build-to-print business, and that's because we are not the typical build-to-print business. We operate even within this manufacturing services businesses, within niche segments. You look at our titanium hot forming and superplastic forming franchise, wherein we build large titanium sheet parts that have a lot of contours and are difficult to make, which we believe there are only a handful of suppliers globally that are capable, and probably not more than two here in North America that are capable of building parts of that size and complex contoured shapes. And we have the leading franchise there.

So we do believe that we are the largest non-OEM supplier of these titanium hot-formed parts. If you look at our stretch forming capability and which includes you know building fuselage skins again outside of you know Spirit there isn't much here in North America that in terms of supply base of companies that can build these large stretch form skins. Today we build the most of the fuselage for the A220, and we have also recently won content from Spirit on the 737 MAX, and that's going to be a great opportunity for further growth and share capture for us going forward. So again we do have manufacturing services as a sizable portion of our business.

We think that it is unique, it is differentiated, and provides opportunity for both growth and margin expansion in the business going forward. To sum up here, and kind of leave you with what we consider are the key investment highlights, for our company. Our expanding portfolio of engineered products businesses across several niche segments. Our cost reduction initiatives in our manufacturing services businesses. Our M&A strategy and execution, which is a proven playbook for us over the last six or seven years. Us being a Tier One industry player with direct relationships with the largest OEMs and defense primes. Our content and positions on commercial aerospace platforms that are primed for growth as build rates eventually pick up.

Our resilient defense business, along with our offloading strategy from defense primes, which will allow us to continue growing our defense business at or above defense spending levels, and then our differentiated manufacturing services, businesses that I just talked about, that are unique, operate in niche segments of the market, and allowing them with opportunities to grow and expand margins, and then lastly, our environmental, social, and corporate governance track record, which I didn't talk about here, but we do have a report we publish annually for the last three or four years, and we do believe we are kind of punching above our weight when it comes to ESG. With that, happy to take any questions. I'll kind of walk across there.

Yeah, I'll go unless anyone has any questions. Maybe just to start with-

You want to stay there.

Whatever you want.

Okay.

Uh-

Keep it simple.

Maybe just to start with supply chain. Kind of you mentioned in some of the slides, MAX rates recovering through twenty twenty-seven, seven eight seven, you know, is also recovering. Kind of, what are you seeing in terms of the supply chain, which has been a big part of that unevenness in terms of rates?

Yes, absolutely. Great question. So, you know, the build rates, while they present a great opportunity for us, the volatility in those build rates have certainly been something we've had to contend with over the last few years. And we've seen build rates from Spirit in the low to mid-twenties. Boeing has been kind of around 31, and steady, but that volatility does present a lot of challenges because, for example, when we are buying titanium, there's a two-year lead time for that titanium, yet our customer demand varies month to month, week to week. We did take a decision early on, you know, as we got into the pandemic, to make a strategic investment in inventory, and that has allowed us to operate efficiently and without hiccups through the last three or four years.

You would not have heard us on any of our earnings calls talking about a revenue miss, because we didn't have materials or parts or components. That was a strategic decision. It has worked well for us, and has allowed us to work through these continued challenges, even though things are relatively better in terms of us getting what we need from our suppliers. Things are certainly improving, but it's still challenging. And, you know, we do anticipate that as build rates do eventually pick up, we're going to be able to reduce kind of that inventory investment that we have and that you can see on our balance sheet today, and that will bode well for our cash flows as well.

Greg Konrad
SVP, Jefferies

And then maybe on the other side of that, in terms of benefits, I mean, offloading to me sounds like a change to the prime supply chain. I think you've picked up, you know, a couple of new wins on commercial. You mentioned Airbus is new. I mean, where do you see the benefits of those strategy, thinking about kind of market share gains, kind of through some of this turmoil?

Suman Mookerji
CFO, Ducommun

Right. Now, so I think we are going to see, and we are seeing, and we are working on opportunities for share gain, both on the commercial aerospace side, where build rates are expected to ramp. There are pressures in the supply chain, which create opportunities for us as a reputed, reliable supplier to gain share. Similarly, on the defense side, we continue to see opportunities for this offloading strategy that has been so successful for us in the last few years, especially with Raytheon being replicated at other defense primes, including Northrop, Raytheon, BAE Systems, as well as Lockheed, and us being able to replicate that and drive growth in excess of defense spending, for the next several years.

Greg Konrad
SVP, Jefferies

And then I think in Vision 2027, I think it said there was a $75 million placeholder for M&A, and that's, you know, been part of your history as well. What are you kind of seeing in that market? Where is the opportunity? And, you know, kind of, how do you view that going forward?

Suman Mookerji
CFO, Ducommun

Yeah, so M&A has been a key part of our strategy, has been a key driver for margin expansion for us, and it is going to be, you know, one of the three pillars that I described for margin expansion for us, going into 2027. We like to be very disciplined in the M&A. We do, we've had great success with double-digit ROIC on the acquisitions we've done, and we want to keep it that way. We're not a big M&A shop looking to do, five, six, seven, 10 deals every year. We're looking to do, one, maybe two transactions a year. That's the cadence that we've followed over the last six to seven years, and we expect that to continue. We have been seeing some deal activity here in the last six months in deal flow.

It's certainly not back to 2021 levels, but it's still promising, and we continue to work on opportunities both through kind of the banker deal flow, as well as our own proprietary pipeline. And we feel good about maintaining our cadence of M&A and continuing to add to our engineered product portfolio.

Greg Konrad
SVP, Jefferies

And I think you mentioned two-year lead time in terms of titanium, and that seems like maybe an area of the market, at least as it relates to commercial aerospace, that there's been some volatility, shortages, changes. I mean, where do you see the opportunity, or is that an opportunity within kind of the more material side of things?

Suman Mookerji
CFO, Ducommun

Yeah. It certainly helps that we have that strategic inventory because not everyone might, and that does also act as a lever in being able to win incremental business when your customer knows that you have the materials that are needed and you are capable of holding that inventory, right? So it certainly is a plus for us and is helping us. But we would certainly hope that those pressures ease, allowing us to then release some of that inventory and turn that into free cash flow.

Greg Konrad
SVP, Jefferies

Then, maybe I misheard, but I think you talked about pricing. I mean, you talked a lot about the cost side, you know, in kind of this inflationary environment. I mean, how do you think about the offset from some of those efficiencies, but also the other side of that in terms of any pricing power that you might have within the business?

Suman Mookerji
CFO, Ducommun

Absolutely. Yeah, great question. So, you know, pricing is really important to us. We want to make sure we are getting paid for the value that we provide. You know, Steve, our Chairman CEO, came from private equity, worked with KKR portfolio company. You know, he understands pricing well. We work on pricing at the individual part, you know, by customer, by product, by part, understanding our position and the value we provide, and make sure that we are getting paid accordingly. You know, we don't roll out a 5% price increase across the company or across a specific business. We are very thoughtful and methodical and analytical when we do our price increases. It's certainly helped in the last year with pricing in the aftermarket.

I think we all know what we've seen in the aftermarket portion of the industry. So that's been an... You know, we continue to see that to be an area of strength for us going forward. We don't see that softening here in the near term. But even in our manufacturing services businesses, you know, we are not into life-of-program contracts with year-over-year price downs. That's not, that's not our structures business, that's not our electronics business. Even on the manufacturing services side, we have shorter LTAs with even shorter pricing appendices within that LTA with material escalation clauses. And we're able to do that because we are in these niche segments of the market. We are not a commoditized player.

We're not in the machining business, where there are a hundred other options for your customer within the same zip code. We're not, we're not that player in the industry, so that allows us to have relatively more flexibility on the pricing front, even in our manufacturing services businesses.

Greg Konrad
SVP, Jefferies

Cool. We'll leave it at that. Thank you, Suman.

Suman Mookerji
CFO, Ducommun

Awesome. Thank you very much, Greg. Thank you.

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