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Jefferies 2023 Industrials Conference

Sep 6, 2023

Sheila Kahyaoglu
Managing Director in Equity Research, Jefferies

I hand it over to you. I think it's still good morning, everyone. I don't have a watch on me, but my name is Sheila Kahyaoglu with the Jefferies Aerospace Defense and Airlines Equity Research team. Thank you so much for joining us for the Ducommun presentation and fireside chat. We have Suman Mookerji here, who's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Suman, I'm gonna kick it over to you for a few slides, and then we're gonna get into Q&A.

Suman Mookerji
SVP and CFO, Ducommun

Thank you, Sheila, for inviting us. Always appreciate having the opportunity to present here at the Jefferies conference. I wanted to start off first with an overview of Ducommun, especially for those of you who are new to the name, just so that you have some context, and then we can go into Q&A. So, on an LTM basis ended June, so our Q2, we had $743 million in revenue, and we had 13.5% EBITDA as a percentage of sales, so about $100 million in EBITDA. Our backlog at the end of Q2 crossed $1 billion, which is a record high for us and something we're really proud of and provides continued tailwind for our growth going forward.

If you look at our revenue mix, it's 55% defense and just under 40% commercial, with defense continuing to show strength, but really a lot of the growth coming from commercial aerospace, so we expect that mix to continue to tilt slightly more in favor of commercial aerospace as we go forward. We also kinda break out our revenue between what we consider either proprietary products or proprietary processes, which constitute 80% of our revenues. And then if you look at kind of our commercial aerospace business and how that breaks out, you can see that more than a majority of those revenues come from single-aisle or narrow-bodied aircraft, with business jets being another key piece, followed by wide-body being a smaller portion of our revenue mix within commercial aerospace.

On the right, you can see some of the key platforms that we are present on. On the defense side, with military aircraft and missiles and radar being key end-user segments for us, the Joint Strike Fighter, the Apache, Black Hawk, and the CH-53K being key programs on the aircraft side. And then, when it comes to missiles and radar, the PAC-3, LTAMDS, Tomahawk, SPY-6, and the Standard Missiles being key platforms for us. On the commercial aerospace side, 737 MAX, big platform for us, as well as growing content on the A320, as well as the A220 aircraft, for which we actually make the fuselage skins. And then on the wide-body side, the 787 has been a great platform for us.

We also have some presence in the space, and UAV, end-user segments with, you know, business both across from our structure side as well as electronic side within this segment. If you look at our, customers, we are a Tier One supplier in, in most situations and sell directly into, the Boeings, Airbuses, Spirits of the world on the commercial aerospace side. And then on the defense side, directly to RTX, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and other large defense primes. So having covered kind of the, key customers and platforms, a look at, you know, what are the key product lines within, each of our reported segments, so that you have a flavor of what products we are building, as we, cater to, these customers and platforms.

So on the electronic side, on the left, you can see our wire harness, our circuit card assembly, as well as our integrated box build businesses. These are what we would consider our niche electronic manufacturing service businesses, wherein we have a low-cost domestic footprint. We have a track record of quality and delivery with the largest defense primes in the country, and have, you know, really carved out a nice niche position within that market. To the right of those, you can see our engineered products businesses within electronics, which include our human machine interface products, our lightning protection products, which was an acquisition, and then our motion control business. On the right is our Structural Systems segment, where our product lines include our titanium franchise.

We do both titanium hot forming and superplastic forming, which is a very niche capability with only, you know, less than a handful of capable suppliers globally, and we're very proud of that franchise. We also have the aluminum stretch form business, which has been growing. I mentioned the A220 fuselage skins, which we manufacture, and also our recent win with Spirit on the 737 MAX fuselage. We also have, within our structures business, a number of engineered product businesses which we have acquired over the past five years. These include our ammunition handling systems business, which was the acquisition of Nobles Worldwide back in 2018. A magnetic seals business, which was the acquisition of MagSeal in 2021. Extruded thermoplastics, which is the acquisition of CTP back in 2018.

And then our most recent acquisition of BLR Aerospace, which makes aerodynamic structures, which help both rotorcraft as well as fixed- wing business aviation. I also wanted to share some key historical financial data to give you a flavor of our financial performance over the past five to seven years. So if you look at the period from 2017 through 2019, under the current management team, which came into place in early 2017, you can see a period of sustained growth in revenue as well as profitability. With the 737 MAX issues and the onset of the pandemic in 2020, our revenues, especially on the commercial aerospace side, saw significant decline.

However, you will see that our EBITDA percentage of sales, so our EBITDA margins, as well as EBITDA dollars, stayed within a very narrow range, and we were able to maintain that despite the significant drop in commercial aerospace revenues, which we are really proud of. Post-pandemic, we're seeing a strong resurgence in commercial aerospace, and that return to growth is going to help continue drive our recovery and revenue, as well as profitability. I also wanted to point out our leverage over the past six to seven years, and you can see that we've been disciplined with it and have continued to nibble down and nibble at it and bring that leverage ratio down.

And so with that background on our business, I also wanted to cover the key investment highlights as we see it, the reasons of why, you know, we believe the outlook looks positive for Ducommun going forward. And I'll have a few slides on a couple of these items that I'll take you through. But first, our strategy of expanding our portfolio of engineered products. And this is a journey we started on back in 2017 and have continued to make steady progress, and we have a Vision 2027 plan for where we want to take this business, and I'll cover it in a minute. Second, are our cost reduction initiatives.

So outside of our engineered product strategy, in our manufacturing services business, we have a plan to improve profitability through this restructuring program, through these cost reduction initiatives and facility restructuring that we are doing right now, which will drive significant synergies and benefits for our shareholders, and I'll cover that as well in a moment. Third is our M&A strategy and execution, and this is linked to our engineered product strategy, so we are looking to grow our engineered products over the next five years, and M&A is going to be a key driver or enabler of that. We have for the deals we did prior to the BLR acquisition generated double-digit ROIC on all the acquisitions we did in the past five years.

We've also been able to bring down the multiple we paid on those transactions by an average of four times. And so we have a playbook on the M&A side that we know has worked. It's tested and tried out, and we intend to continue replicating that on future acquisitions as we go forward. I already mentioned the fact that we are a Tier One player, so we have connections and reach into the leading players, both on commercial aerospace as well as on the defense side, dealing directly with the primes and Tier Ones and the OEMs. We are well positioned to capture the commercial aerospace recovery, so you're seeing that already in our financial performance in the current year, where we've had high double-digit growth in our commercial aerospace business.

You know, despite some of kind of the headwinds that people are seeing right now with OEM production, we do expect that over the next several quarters and years to be a continued source a tailwind and a continued source of growth for us. We have a resilient defense business, which I mentioned, you know, us being able to maintain our margins through the pandemic, and a key part of that was by growing our defense business. It grew over 60% between 2018 and 2021. The strength in that business continues to remain. We've had softness in 2022 and in the first two quarters of this year as we have transitioned from some of the legacy platforms.

We are on to the next generation of platforms, and in our most recent quarterly results, at the end of Q2, our backlog for our defense business was up by $50 million. So that really bodes well for the future of defense revenues going forward, and we think that, you know, that's going to be a strong tailwind for us. And then our manufacturing service capabilities. So, even if they are, you know, built to print in instances, we have niche. These manufacturing services businesses are in niche segments, and I'll give you an example.

So our titanium franchise, there are literally only a handful of players globally who can do the hot forming and superplastic forming of titanium sheet for, for these applications in commercial aerospace and in for defense applications. And so even if we may not own the design, the proprietary capabilities that we have in being able to manufacture this product, allow us to have a strategic advantage when it comes to gaining business, in the, in these product lines. And lastly, we have a strong, ESG track record, and we continue to make, progress on that front in spite of kind of being a small cap company. So I kind of touched upon our engineered, product strategy a little bit.

I mean, the key three key tenets there are proprietary designs, us having sole source positions on good platforms, and having access to the aftermarket. And kind of beyond these three tenets, which you see kind of apply across all these businesses. So the blue boxes represent kind of the different engineered product businesses or product lines within our portfolio today. And you can see that they all check these boxes for the proprietary engineering and design, for the sole source positions, and for their access to aftermarket. In many of these instances, they are also leaders in niche segments, which really gives them a great strategic advantage. We have grown these engineered products from 9% of our revenue back in 2017 to 15% of our revenue in at the end of 2022.

Since then, we did the acquisition of BLR Aerospace in April of this year, and so we continue to make strides to grow this business and are well on our way to get to our target of 25% of our revenue by 2027. On the aftermarket side, again, we've made good progress in growing that business from 6% of our revenue in 2017 to about 10% of our revenue in 2022, and we're positioned well to grow that business to a target of 15% of our revenue by 2027. On the manufacturing services side, the cost reduction initiatives that we launched at the end of last year and through this year are going to play a key role.

So we are looking to shut down and are actually well on our way to winding down two of our facilities here in the U.S. One, which is based in Monrovia, California, which makes structures products, as well as an electronics facility in Berryville, Arkansas. Work from these facilities will go primarily to our expanded footprint in Guaymas, Mexico, and to some extent, to our other existing U.S. facilities. We have talked about completing this wind down by the end of this year and generating $11 million-$13 million of savings or synergies from these restructuring actions, starting in 2024. Our position on commercial aerospace. So if you look at Boeing and Airbus, kind of the two key OEMs in this space, we have great content on their most kind of marquee platforms.

The 737 MAX, you know, is the most significant platform for us on the commercial aerospace side, and we have a shipset value of $175,000 on that aircraft, and that shipset value continues to grow. We recently announced a share gain through a relationship we've developed with Spirit for supporting them with the fuselage skins on the MAX. And we're really proud of entering into that portion of the aerostructures product within the MAX. It was not something we did in the past. We also have good content on the 787 at $90,000 per shipset, and so as deliveries and production of that platform continue to rise, we're that bodes well for Ducommun.

With Airbus, that's a story that has been in the making for the past five to seven years. We did not do much business with them prior to that, but that relationship has really matured, and we now provide a significant, content on, the A220 in particular, with $150,000 per aircraft, but also on the A320, at above $50,000 per aircraft and, and growing. On the defense side, as I said, you know, we're, seeing a resurgence of growth there with the growth in our backlog, and so we expect that to be a, a source of growth for us over the next five years.

We have talked about the offloading theme for those of you who are familiar with Ducommun, where we take product or we take manufacturing out of the defense prime facilities, which are in high-cost locations with significant overhead, and we bring them into our low-cost domestic footprint and are able to drive savings for them and benefit for us, too, in the process. And that has had great success over the past few years, and we have a good pipeline of additional opportunities that we expect to continue to drive over the next few years to help with growth in our defense business.

We're also on some of the right sectors within the defense industry, with missile defense and radar being a key area for us, as well as providing support with hypersonics, with the key defense primes, and having a presence with UAVs and counter UAS. So where do all these key investment highlights take our business over the next five years? We laid out our vision 2027 at the end of last year during our Investor Day, and on the revenue, we look to take that from just over $700 million last year to close to $1 billion by 2027....

This will come both from growth in our defense business and also the continued recovery in the commercial aerospace sector, along with our execution of our M&A playbook over this period of time. On the margin front, we expect to take our EBITDA margins from 13%-18%. This will be executed or enabled by the cost reduction actions I just talked about, also by operating leverage as our commercial aerospace business goes from being at suboptimal capacity to more optimal production levels, as well as pricing actions we're taking, both on the engineered product side, where we have a more significant strategic advantage in those discussions, but also in our manufacturing services businesses, where we have these niche capabilities.

And finally, with the M&A execution on our M&A strategy, where we buy businesses that are margin-accretive on day one, but then we aggressively grow the EBITDA in these businesses to be able to continue to improve the margin in those businesses, as well as for Ducommun overall. So to wrap up here, we really think that we're at a great point in time for Ducommun, with a lot of tailwinds for us, whether it's commercial aerospace, the continued strength in defense, all the cost actions we're taking to drive margin improvement, as well as our M&A playbook, which we have seen works, and we intend to continue to execute over the next five years.

Sheila Kahyaoglu
Managing Director in Equity Research, Jefferies

Great. Thank you for that very deep overview. Maybe if anybody has questions, feel free to ask, but I'll sort of kick it off here. You know, you gave an idea of your exposure across different end markets and platforms. Maybe can you talk about how you think about your narrowbody growth and your widebody growth rate over the next few years?

Suman Mookerji
SVP and CFO, Ducommun

Great question. Thanks, Sheila. So, on the narrowbody side, you know, we laid out the shipsets and values that we have, certainly on the 737 MAX, that being a key platform for us. And, you know, despite some of the headwinds that we are seeing, that Boeing and Spirit are currently facing, we do believe that the end markets on that platform remain strong, the demand remains strong. And so eventually, supply is going to catch up, and we're going to benefit from it. Our shipset value only continues to increase. You know, the most recent win with Spirit is an example of how we're continuing to gain share in a win-win situation for our customer and partners. So we feel really good about narrowbodies continuing to show strong growth.

On the widebody side, you know, it has been really slow over the past few years. The key platform for us there is the 787, and, you know, that is really kind of rising from the ashes. It's been. There wasn't that much production in 2021 or 2022, but now as those rates begin to slowly go up, as well as the inventory that had been accumulated by, you know, Boeing and Spirit, starts to get depleted, we are beginning to see more demand on the 787 for our content. So we will see widebodies grow beyond, you know, the 10% of commercial aerospace that they are now. I think we're going to see it grow, as well.

But overall, the story is really strong on, on both fronts, so I think we're on the right platforms, both in widebody as well as narrowbody.

Sheila Kahyaoglu
Managing Director in Equity Research, Jefferies

And then maybe talk about your MAX content gain. What did it increase your content by, like, was it 10K on the 175? And how did it come about that Spirit approached you guys? Was it an RFP process, or are there more opportunities to gain content, given no platforms, no new platforms?

Suman Mookerji
SVP and CFO, Ducommun

Right. And, you know, we have a strong relationship with Spirit, and we do a lot of work for them and have for many years. And, you know, there is a good connection and relationship between the CEO at the CEO level at as well at both companies. And, you know, when their senior management team was visiting us literally last year, and we were taking them through our facility in Gardena, which does the stretch-forming work, and they saw what we were doing for Airbus on the A220, as well as, you know, being able to stretch form these huge skins, and work we do, you know, similar work we do on an ad hoc basis for 747, for 767, they were really impressed.

You know, they hadn't seen that capability outside of their own factories. And as they look at their production capacity and they plan for the ramp up in production rates, they felt that it would really be a win-win if we could take some of that production kind of off their plate. And you know, they gave us a PO to make 15 shipsets of a small portion of the fuselage to start with, which hopefully we can continue to grow as we demonstrate our ability to deliver and our quality and our manufacturing capability there. You know, we can grow beyond the... You know, we have 5% of the MAX fuselage now in terms of the skin.

It's, you know, it's about $4 million of revenue a year based on that 5% for 15 aircraft. But we really are hopeful of better things to come on that front, and, you know, get to a much higher percentage than 5%, certainly.

Sheila Kahyaoglu
Managing Director in Equity Research, Jefferies

Great. With that, I think our time's up, but thank you so much, Suman, and everybody for listening in. Thank you all.

Suman Mookerji
SVP and CFO, Ducommun

Thank you, Sheila. Thank you.

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