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Earnings Call: Q1 2017

Jan 24, 2017

Speaker 1

Good morning, and welcome to the First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call of D. R. Horton, America's Builder, the Largest Builder in the United States. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation.

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Jessica Hansen, Vice President of Investor Relations for D. R. Horton. Please go

Speaker 2

ahead. Thank you, Kevin, and good morning. Welcome to our call to discuss our results for the Q1 of fiscal 2017. Before we get started, today's call may include comments that constitute forward looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although D.

R. Horton believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different. All forward looking statements are based upon information available to D. R. Horton on the date of this conference call and D.

R. Horton does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements. Additional information about issues that could lead to material changes and performance is contained in D. R. Horton's Annual Report on Form 10 ks, which is filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

This morning's earnings release can be found on our website at investor.drhorton.com, and we plan to file our 10 Q in the next few days. After the conclusion of the call, we will post updated supplementary data to our Investor Relations site on the Presentations section under News and Events for your reference. The supplementary information includes current and historical supporting data on our homebuilding return on inventory, gross margin, changes in active selling communities, product mix and our mortgage operations. Now I will turn the call over to David Auld, our President and CEO.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Jessica, and good morning. In addition to Jessica, I am pleased to be joined on this call by Mike Murray, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer and Bill Wheat, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The D. R. Horton team produced strong results in our Q1.

Our consolidated pretax income increased 32% to $318,000,000 on a revenue increase of 20 percent to $2,900,000,000 Our pre tax profit margin improved 100 basis points to 11%. We experienced a 20% improvement in our absorption per community as homes sold increased 15% compared to last year. These results reflect the strength of our operational teams and diverse product offering across our broad national footprint as well as solid market conditions. Our continued strategic focus is to produce double digit annual growth in both revenue and pretax profits, while generating annual positive cash flows and increasing returns. For the 12 months for the trailing 12 months, our homebuilding return on inventory improved to 15.9%, up 290 basis points from 13% a year ago, and we expect to generate $300,000,000 to $500,000,000 of positive cash flows from operations for the year.

With 24,500 homes in inventory at the end of December and an ample supply of land and lots, we are well positioned for the upcoming spring selling season and the remainder of 2017. Mike?

Speaker 4

Net income for the Q1 increased 31% to $207,000,000 or $0.55 per diluted share compared to $158,000,000 or $0.42 per diluted share in the prior year quarter. Our consolidated pretax income increased 32% to $318,000,000 in the Q1 versus $241,000,000 a year ago. And homebuilding pretax income increased 28% to $294,000,000 compared to $229,000,000 Our backlog conversion rate for the Q1 was 82%, above the high end of the range we guided to on our Q4 call. As a result, our first quarter home sales revenues increased 20% to $2,800,000,000 on 9,404 homes closed, up from $2,300,000,000 on 8,061 homes closed in the prior year quarter. Our average closing price for the quarter was $297,000 up 2% compared to last year.

This quarter, entry level homes marketed under our Express Homes brand accounted for 28% of homes closed and 20% of home sales revenue. Our homes for higher end move up and luxury buyers priced greater than $500,000 were 7% of homes closed and 17% of home sales revenue. Our active adult Freedom Homes brand is still in the early stages of rollout and customer response in the 8 markets we are open has been positive. We still expect to have Freedom Communities open in a third of our 78 operating markets by the end of the year. Bill?

The value of our net sales orders in the Q1 increased 17% from the prior year quarter to $2,800,000,000 and homes sold increased 15 percent to 9,241 homes on a 5% decline in our average active selling community. Our average sales price on net sales orders in the Q1 was $299,100 and the cancellation rate for the Q1 was 22%, consistent with the prior year quarter. The value of our backlog increased 7 percent from a year ago to $3,400,000,000 with an average sales price per home of $300,900 and homes in backlog increased 6% to 11,000 312 homes. Mike? Our gross profit margin on home sales revenue in the first quarter was 19.8 percent compared to 19.9 percent in the prior year quarter and 20.5% in the 4th quarter.

60 of the 70 basis point sequential change in gross profit margin was due to higher warranty and litigation costs this quarter. In the current housing market, we expect our average home sales gross margin to be around 20% with quarterly fluctuations that may range from 19% to 21% due to product and geographic mix as well as the relative impact of warranty, litigation and interest costs. Bill? In the Q1, homebuilding SG and A expense as a percentage of revenue improved 70 basis points to 9.5% compared to 10.2% in the prior year quarter. We remain focused on controlling our SG and A while ensuring that our infrastructure adequately supports current and future growth.

We expect our SG and A as a percentage of homebuilding revenues to be lower in 2017 than in 2016. However, we expect the improvement for the full year to be less than the 70 basis point improvement we achieved this quarter. Jessica?

Speaker 2

Financial Services pretax income in the Q1 increased to $24,200,000 from $12,400,000 in the prior year quarter, driven by growth in revenue and an improved operating margin. 93% of our mortgage companies loan originations during the quarter related to homes closed by our homebuilding operation. Our mortgage company handled the financing for 57% of our homebuyers, up from 51% in the same quarter last year. FHA and VA loans accounted for 48% of the mortgage company's volume compared to 50% in the prior year quarter. Borrowers originating loans with our mortgage company this quarter had an average FICO score of 7 19 and an average loan to value ratio of 88%.

First time homebuyers represented 45% of the closings handled by our mortgage company compared to 43% in the Q1 last year. David? During the quarter, our total number of

Speaker 3

homes in inventory increased by 6%, a normal seasonal trend as we approach the spring selling season. We ended the Q1 with 24,500 homes in inventory, of which 1600 were models, 13,400 of our total homes were spec homes, with 9,700 in various stages of construction and 3,700 completed. Compared to a year ago, we have 14% more homes in inventory, putting us in a strong position for the spring selling season and to achieve double digit growth in revenues in 2017. Our first quarter investment in lots, land and development totaled $847,000,000 of which $552,000,000 was for finished lots and land and $295,000,000 was for land development. We plan to increase our investment in our land and lot supply this year at a rate to support our expected growth in revenues.

Speaker 4

Mike? At December 31, 2016, our land and lot portfolio consisted of 213,000 lots, of which 119,000 or 56% are owned and 94 optioned. Our option lock position increased 54% from a year ago, while our overall lock position increased 20%. Our 213,000 lot portfolio is a strong competitive advantage in the current housing market and a sufficient lot supply to support our future growth. Bill?

At December 31, our homebuilding liquidity included $1,100,000,000 of unrestricted homebuilding cash $888,000,000 of available capacity on our revolving credit facility. Our homebuilding leverage ratio improved 6.90 basis points from a year ago to 28.6%. The balance of our public notes outstanding at December 31 was $2,800,000,000 and we have a total of $350,000,000 of senior notes that will mature this year in May. Subsequent to quarter end, Moody's upgraded our corporate credit rating to Baa3 and we now have investment grade ratings from all 3 rating agencies. At December 31, our shareholders' equity was $7,000,000,000 and book value per share was $18.70 up 14% from a year ago.

Our priorities for cash flow utilization center around being opportunistic while remaining disciplined. Our top priorities for fiscal 2017 include continuing to consolidate market share by both investing in our homebuilding business and through strategic acquisitions, paying off $350,000,000 of our senior notes of maturity in May and providing consistent dividends to our shareholders. Jessica?

Speaker 2

Looking forward, our expectations for 2017 are consistent with what we shared on our November call and are based on current market conditions. We still expect to generate a consolidated pretax margin of 11.2% to 11.5%. We also expect consolidated revenues of between $13,400,000,000 $13,800,000,000 and to close between 43,545,545 100 homes. We anticipate our home sales gross margin for fiscal 2017 will be around 20% with potential quarterly fluctuations that may range from 19% to 21 percent. We estimate our annual homebuilding SG and A expense will be approximately 9.0% with the Q2 of the year higher than 9% and the 3rd and 4th quarters lower than 9%.

We expect our annual financial services operating margin to be around 30%. We are forecasting a fiscal 2017 income tax rate of approximately 35% and an annual average diluted share count of in a range of approximately $300,000,000 to $500,000,000 Our fiscal 2017 results will be significantly impacted by the strength of the spring selling season, and we will update our expectations as necessary each quarter as visibility to the spring and the full year becomes clear. For the Q2 of 2017, we expect our number of homes closed will approximate a beginning backlog conversion rate in a range of 88% to 92%. We anticipate our 2nd quarter home sales gross margin will be around 20%, and we expect our homebuilding SG and A in the 2nd quarter to be in the range of 9.3% percent to 9.5 percent of homebuilding revenue. David?

In closing,

Speaker 3

our first quarter growth in sales, closings and profits and the improvement in our pre tax profit margin are the result of the strength of our people and operating platform. We are striving to be the leading builder in each of our markets and to continue to expand our industry leading market share. We remain focused on growing both our revenues and pretax profits at a double digit annual pace, while continuing to generate annual positive operating cash flows and improved returns. We are well positioned to do so with our solid balance sheet, industry leading market share, broad geographic footprint, diversified product offering across our Doctor Horton, Emerald, Express and Freedom brands, attractive finished lot and land position and most importantly, our tremendous team across the country. We'd like to thank the entire D.

R. Horton team for their continued focus and hard work, and we look forward to continuing to grow and improve our operations in 20 17. This concludes the prepared remarks. We will now host questions.

Speaker 1

Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session. Our first question today is coming from Stephen East from Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Congratulations guys. I'm sure you're going to hear it several times today, but great quarter. So maybe we'll just start with the orders because you're going to probably get that question 100 times also. But can you talk a little bit about the trends that you saw through the quarter?

Did you see any impact from the rates, from the election, product type disparity, what was going on? And then whatever type of commentary you want to give post quarter what we've seen in January so far?

Speaker 4

Well, Stephen, thank you very much. We were very pleased with the quarter, and we saw very strong improvement in our absorptions community by community. Throughout the quarter, we continued to see a good response to our positioning. We were much better positioned coming into this Q1 this year than we had been, and we were able to to month. It was a pretty consistent result for us into January.

The Cowboys lost, so in this part of the world, the selling season is kind of starting

Speaker 6

to sell. So

Speaker 4

we're excited about the silver lining on that cloud for us. But we continue to see good sales trends in January very early into spring. And we'll certainly keep you updated as things progress and we get back with you in April on that one.

Speaker 5

Okay. And follow-up, the absorption one, can you sustain it? And then with the rate move that you've seen so far, I assume that you're seeing very few that are not qualifying. Are you starting to see any trade down in product? And at what rate would you think you would start to see maybe some of those express buyers have to drop out of the market?

Speaker 3

Well, Stephen, it's always good to be in my mind anyway the price lead leader in a rising interest rate environment because if you can't afford 300, then if you've got a product 250, you can still convert that sale. We lack our positioning. As far as absorption for our community, at some point, no, you're not going to be able to sustain and continue. But our focus has been driving to a 20% ROI. And so we're going to drive absorption levels and improve ROI.

And at some point, we're going to max out the return we can make off of flag. And at that point, we will add flags.

Speaker 2

And for fiscal 2017, we feel very comfortable that we can continue to drive further improvement in our absorption to offset any community count decline to generate the 8% to 13% increase in closings that we've guided to for the year. So clearly, we're off to a strong start. We can have some variability from quarter to quarter and how we get there for the year. As you saw, our sales were outside of that up 8% to 13% range. We could have a quarter where our sales are under that 8% to 13% range, but we feel very comfortable that for the full year, our closings will be up at least 8% 13%.

Speaker 3

Stephen, we wouldn't guide up double digit if we weren't confident that we could drive that level of absorption.

Speaker 5

Fair enough. Fair enough. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Stephen Kim from Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 7

Hey, guys. Well, I'm going to just add my congrats as well because clearly, while your orders were very strong and you also executed very well below the top line also. So congratulations on a good execution this quarter. My first question actually revolves around cost control. I know that you're always focused on leveraging your scale with your vendors.

But I also hear that recently you've conducted a pretty significant rebidding process with some of your suppliers. And I was wondering, if you'd be willing to share what you think the overall savings opportunity might be from those conversations?

Speaker 4

Stephen, we are constantly rebidding our suppliers and our vendors across the board. We've had several pushes over the last several years really in which we've pushed hard on rebidding. And so yes, that's a continual effort for it and we're continually working to mitigate certainly cost increases and improve our costs wherever we can. On a year over year basis, our cost our stick and brick cost per square foot were up only 2%, which is certainly more moderate than we saw a couple of years ago. And so we've been able to keep our revenue growth per square foot exceeding our cost per square foot on a stick and brick basis, which is certainly helping us going forward.

We're seeing lot costs start to increase, lot costs were up 9% on a per square foot basis this quarter. So it's a very we're seeing very good results from our efforts to control our stick and brake, which is helping keep our margins stable. And Steve,

Speaker 3

we've been focusing a long time on driving a higher level of absorption on a community by community basis. And that allows us to control labor, and it makes the entire process of building a house more efficient. And I think we're reaping some of the benefits of that.

Speaker 7

Well, that's yes, so that's really encouraging. My next question relates to deleveraging in the face of very strong demand. I mean, we've seen your net debt to cap already now well below what I would consider historical norms and it seems to be on track to trend lower this year given your strong cash flow. I was wondering if you could talk to us about how you think about what the right level and what trajectory is appropriate for your leverage at this time as we're seeing some recent demand indicators kind of inflecting upwards?

Speaker 4

Right. Well, Steven, as we look at our balance sheet, our capital structure and our guidance for the year and where we're guiding the company to be, to the extent that we're able to still grow at a solid pace and consistent double digit pace over the course of a year and we're able to invest

Speaker 3

land pipeline. To the extent

Speaker 4

we're able to support that level of growth and still land pipeline to the extent we're able to support that level of growth and still generate positive cash flow. From our standpoint, we don't have an ideal leverage level. We will take that cash flow and then do what we feel like is best in the interest of our overall company and our shareholders for the long term. And so an element of that that we prioritize this year is to continue to delever. We expect to generate $300,000,000 to $500,000,000 of cash flow while still supporting our growth, and we're going to use $350,000,000 of that to pay down debt, while continuing to reinvest the business and continue to pay a strong dividend to our shareholders, which we've increased and expect to pay about $150,000,000 in dividends this year.

So it's really not an ideal not necessarily a target ideal leverage level. It's really just we are balancing that with supporting the growth we expect to generate the company.

Speaker 3

We're trying to create as much flexibility into the future as we possibly can. And like Bill said, we don't have a target on debt. But right now, we're generating enough cash to buy the land and lots that we need to support a double digit growth. And speculating beyond that's just not in our nature today.

Speaker 7

All right, guys. I really appreciate it and congrats.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Nishu Sood from Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 8

Thank you. I wanted to ask about the first the backlog conversion ratio, very, very strong conversion ratio. I think the strongest in 5 years. Just wanted to dig into that a little bit. You mentioned obviously driving absorptions in communities That may have played a part of that.

But on the other hand, there's still, I think, pretty widespread concerns about labor. And so what and so how should we think about that? Are we getting back to normal, in terms of just the ability to deliver homes? And then so what's helping you overcome the labor concerns out there?

Speaker 4

Yes. Nishu, where we feel we were coming into the Q1 much better position, I mentioned before, on our homes and inventory and where we are right now future closings because we're getting the houses we want out of the ground, we're getting them where we want and working them through to completion and then we're closing them. That's for us a much better predictor of closings volume in the given quarter perhaps than backlog conversion is. In terms of back to normal, I don't know whatever is normal in this business. It seems like the conditions are always changing a bit year to year, and we're building a platform that allows us to respond to those market conditions and look to position our communities in front of the market with the trades we need to build the houses when we want to get them built.

Speaker 8

Got it. Got it. Makes sense. And another number, very, very strong. I think it's a record for your first quarter SG and A.

I think it might be your first single digit number you've ever reported. Very strong performance. You mentioned that look, hey, don't expect the same level of improvement in the subsequent quarters. Just wanted to dig into that a little bit. What drove the strong performance and that might reverse in the subsequent quarters?

Obviously, you've got the corporate relocation coming up. That might be a factor, but why would it reverse after such a strong performance in the Q1?

Speaker 4

Our costs initially our costs that we had in the Q1 were normal. There wasn't anything unusual there in the cost at all. It's really driven by the revenue line. We had guided to or we exceeded the guidance that we provided for our backlog conversion in the Q1, back to your first question. And so our revenues were higher than that guidance range.

And so then therefore, that generated really strong leverage on our SG and A costs in the quarter. As we look forward to the rest of the year, our annual guidance for revenues are still in the 10% to 14% range, units $8 to $13 $10 to $14 And so we do expect solid leverage on our SG and A, but we don't expect it to continue to be at 70 basis points. But we're very pleased with the start to the year. We're very pleased with our positioning in our inventory as well as in our SG and A expenses and our infrastructure and looking forward to continuing to leverage that throughout the rest of the year. Nishu, thank you for noticing that.

That is something we work very hard at.

Speaker 1

Great. That's it. Thanks for the thought. Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Alan Ratner from Zelman and Associates.

Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 9

Hey, guys. Good morning and I echo my congrats on a very strong quarter. David, maybe this question is for you or anybody can chime in, but I think everybody is trying to read the tea leaves on what impact, if any, higher rates might have on demand. And I think you certainly have a very balanced outlook there and seems like there was no impact this quarter certainly. I was curious if you were to go back in time in prior periods where we've seen similar rate moves and 2013 is the most recent instance, but certainly there have been others.

And if I look at your 'thirteen results, you and everybody else saw a pretty big deceleration in orders in that period, and we generally have seen that in prior periods as well. So it might be too early to figure out what exactly is going to happen this go around. But I was curious, back then when you were out there in the field visiting your communities, what type of signs did you see that might have kind of foretell that slowdown? And compare and contrast that maybe to what you're hearing from your people in the field today with that move we've seen in rates over the last 8 weeks or so? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Well, 2013, I don't know that it was necessarily the rate increase as the rapidity of the rate increase. It kind of shocked the market. And you saw a, I would say, a deceleration of traffic, less consumer confidence, feel from our sales agents. So we fought through it. I think we ended up with a pretty good 2013, but it did have a significant impact.

Right now, the kind of the over optimism that seems to be out there in the market, I mean, I just traveled through Florida. And I tell you, Florida feels like it is go to market as I've seen in a long time. Our sales agents are very excited. And we have inventory that right now we're in the best competitive position we've ever been in. I mean as far as direct competition, price point competition, model against model, it is as low as I've seen it for us.

So yes, we're very bullish today on positioning inventory in front of what we think is going to be a pretty strong sell season.

Speaker 4

Alan, I think we're seeing if we see interest rates trend up gradually over time, today in connection with job growth, income growth and overall consumer confidence, I think those are very positive because we'll see good household formations, we'll see good confidence by the consumer and able to adjust to a gradual rate rise that seems to be telegraphed. I think in 2013, what was different is that rate spiked up very quickly for no reason that was really tied to what people felt on the ground at the time. It was just it was happened in a vacuum and it had a very negative impact. Today, I don't think those things are happening in a vacuum. I think there's as David mentioned, there's confidence.

There's good traffic in the sales offices. There's very good confidence level across our platform of 1600 model homes. Our sales agents feel very good about the traffic they're seeing, and they feel really good about the indicators they're getting. Our inventory positioning is strong going into the spring. So we're very encouraged.

Speaker 2

And as David

Speaker 10

'm sorry, it's Ivy.

Speaker 3

Sorry, Jessica. I was just going to ask you

Speaker 2

guys, sorry, Alan, for jumping in.

Speaker 10

One of the questions we get a lot from our clients, especially because of your strength and leadership and entry level and recognizing that you are ahead of the curve and certainly pioneers in many markets that others are following suit, that the entry level customer is likely to be the most impacted on a rise in rates. And frankly, what we've heard is that it might even be more per se to the buyer who's stretching to maybe get to a move up. And so maybe sensitivity within the portfolio, maybe you could talk about the experience, so they just buy a little less house, a little less options. If in fact you do see if rates continue to rise and you do in the future see some impact, can you give us some of your perspective around the price sensitivity within the portfolio of different price points that might be helpful? Sorry, Alan.

Speaker 3

Alan. Well, what we are seeing is increasing demand. And I think, like Mike said, as long as the jobs are there, nominal increases over a period of time, people are going to adjust them. The position we're in is that we have a pretty broad product line in the Express and entry level Horton that we can flex down in price to meet a lower demand price, a lower price.

Speaker 2

And as David mentioned earlier in the call, Ivy, that is why we believe our results are what they are as we've been focused on offering an affordable product and we're going to continue to specifically with our Express Homes and our new Freedom Homes brand for the active adult. And we believe right now that's why we haven't seen any sort of impact from the rate rise is that we are positioned where we want to be and we'll continue to adjust as necessary to continue to offer an affordable product regardless of the rate environment we're in.

Speaker 10

Great. Thanks guys. Sorry, Alex.

Speaker 11

Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Erik Bosthard from Cleveland Research Company. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 12

Thanks. The progress on absorption is obviously impressive. I'm curious as you think about the growth path forward, the plans in terms of community count growth, the success you're having, does it encourage you to be more aggressive in opening new communities over the next 12 months? Just curious if your thinking on that has evolved?

Speaker 4

Sure, Eric. Really our outlook on community count is the same as it was last quarter. We expect community count from where we are today to still remain relatively flat over the next few quarters. At some point, we would expect it to increase. But right now, our community opening schedule would indicate that it's going to stay relatively flat.

So sequentially, relatively flat, which would still indicate a year over year decrease. This quarter community count was down 5%, but with the 20% absorption improvement, our sales were up 15%. So but in the short to medium term, still relatively flat. That's exactly right. Eric, I think also what we're seeing is the impact of some of the communities we're opening now are frankly more productive communities and some that are closing off.

We've been focusing on a return based model for the past several years, and the fruit of that is coming through. We're seeing our return on homebuilding inventory jump up almost 300 basis points on a trailing 12 month basis over where it was a year ago. And our discipline around living within our means inventory wise and being very focused on the balance sheet has encouraged our field teams to be very selective in the communities they're bringing online and where they're deploying their capital as to where they're going to get the most turn out of that capital. So that's where we're seeing, I think, some good pickup in our absorptions on a flag by flag basis.

Speaker 12

Second question, I think that's helpful. The second question is in terms of the runway with Express, both from a competitive standpoint and a cost standpoint, a customer standpoint, wondering how you view that and if you view that any different if the runway and the opportunity is even greater than you had thought. I just wonder where we are in the cycle of sustaining the success or even accelerating the success with what you've done with Express.

Speaker 3

I will say the demand for the product and the returns from them, been able to generate were a surprise to me. It was a much deeper and higher demand market than I thought it was going to be when we rolled it out. As far as sustainable, I think that's the biggest part of the pyramid. That's where most of the buyers are. We are very well positioned in there.

And we certainly feel like we can compete effectively and sustain and grow. We're just rolling out in the West and just actually rolling out in Phoenix, kind of early in the stages in Denver. I mean, it's got a we feel like we've got quite a bit of runway there. And we're equally excited about Freedom, which is our age targeted, age designed product that we think is going to fit very nicely with Express and offer some that doesn't exist in the market today.

Speaker 12

That's helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Ken Zener from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 6

Good morning, all.

Speaker 4

Good morning.

Speaker 6

So I'm trying to understand given the orders and your units under construction conversion, why you're sticking with that broad range, because you are closings as a percent of units under construction 1Q was kind of normal, so it doesn't seem like that's constrained. Orders have been following the seasonality of the last few years. Your under construction is up 14%. So how does that translate to 10% unit delivery for the midpoint for the year? I mean, what are we kind of missing there?

Or is it just a natural conservatism on your part?

Speaker 4

Well, okay, and our guidance is not 10% on units. It's 8% to 13%. So there is a range there. So we could certainly be 10% and still be in our guidance range. And as you well know, the entire year is driven really largely by the spring selling season.

And we're on the front edge of that, and we certainly feel optimistic about it and we're positive about it and we really feel like our positioning is very strong for that. But it hasn't happened yet. So we will evaluate the spring as we get into it. We will certainly evaluate our guidance and we'll update that as we feel like we need to once we have the visibility into the spring, and it's still too early to do that at this point.

Speaker 6

Understood. But we've had normal seasonal trends, so you don't need anything stellar to actually hit the high end of your unit is my, I guess, statement. It's January 24th. I know seasonal trends are pretty consistent.

Speaker 3

The other question

Speaker 11

We're well positioned.

Speaker 6

Yes, yes, understood. Just for perspective here, so not necessarily about the quarter, but your lot cost increases and your stick and brick increases. You kind of talked about what it was in 1Q. Could you just give us just have a little broader trend, if you will, and hopefully have this available to you? What the lot and separate stick and brick costs were inflation wise for FY 2016 and FY 2015 just so we can kind of have that context?

Speaker 2

Thank you. Sure, Ken. I'll talk about it very generally and I'm happy to follow-up on the specifics that we've given on most of our calls over the last couple of years. In fiscal 2015 is really where we started to see the sharpest increase in both really primarily labor and to some extent materials. So for a couple of quarters, we did experience a high single digit percentage increase in our stick and brick cost per square foot, which wasn't outpacing our which was outpacing our revenues at that point in time.

As we move through the end of 'fifteen and into 'sixteen, we were able to get that closer to call it a mid single digit percentage and our revenues started catching up with that stick and brick cost, which is where you saw our gross margin really start to stabilize and become very consistent for the last call it 6 to 8 quarters now. And as we've kicked off 2017 and really the end of 2016, we're in a low single digit cost inflation environment. This is all stick and brick that I've been talking about. In terms of lot cost, lot cost if you go back to 2015 2016 pretty muted increases really until the back half of twenty sixteen, which was when we started seeing, call it, a mid to high single digit increase in lot costs. And this quarter is one of the higher in terms of we were up 9% as Bill mentioned earlier for a lot cost increase on a per square footage basis.

But we've been able to offset the majority of that with price and kept that gross margin very, very consistent at least from a lot level gross margin perspective.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Bob Wittenhall from RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 11

You guys are having a fantastic start to the year. Congratulations. I wanted to ask you how much of your outperformance in the strength in orders do you attribute to you guys taking share relative to the broader strength of the market? Are you guys doing something on the ground, so you're picking up share?

Speaker 4

That's always our goal. As we compete in every community and we compete to have affordable product out there, that's always our goal. If you look really when you look at share, you have to look over a longer trend and we certainly over the longer trend have been pretty consistently gaining share and that's certainly our goal going forward, market by market, community by community and then rolling up to the overall company is to continue gain share in the marketplace. And we feel like we're in really good position to do that. We're looking to position our communities and our homes to be the best choice for every customer in every market that we're serving.

So to the extent that helps us gain share, that's great. To the extent it just helps us grow with the market, are going to

Speaker 2

do that as well. And clearly, our product offering at the Express entry level affordable price point has driven an outsized increase in those efforts over the last couple of years. Go

Speaker 3

ahead. Every one of our operators wants to be number 1 in their market, whether they're closing 100 houses and a 7,000 permit market or 500 houses in a 600 permit market. They want to win. And that's we instill that, we promote it, and our expectation is that they will win. So with that, we will gain share.

Speaker 11

Well, it sounds like your execution is great. And my just follow-up question, you reiterated free cash flow guidance, M and A is a core strategy, you guys have a great track record to that. What's the pipeline like? And do you think it's a public or private type of M and A situation? Is there anything out there size wise that would be a game changer that would be a good fit for the platform right now?

Or do you think it's just going to be kind of selective sharpshooter M and A? Great job and thanks and good luck.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Bob. We continue to look at a lot of opportunities and we evaluate them all against kind of the track record we have. And so we have a very high bar for what makes sense for us to bring on board. But we continue to look at every opportunity that's presented to us, give it a very serious look and try to learn and understand how it could be a good fit for the company. And we will continue to do so.

And it's been a very active time over the past few years and I expect it will continue to be so.

Speaker 11

If you don't find that M and A opportunity, what do you think you do with the cash? Because you got a lot of cash on the balance sheet currently.

Speaker 4

Well, over the last couple of years, we've generated a lot of cash and we've consistently still found some acquisitions to allocate capital towards. So right now with the pipeline that we see, our expectation is that we will still find some acquisitions that fit. So right now, it's we'll certainly think about if we don't find some acquisitions that fit.

Speaker 3

There's a great big old vault underneath that new Horton building. And Don wants to be able to put it or spread it out down there and play in it.

Speaker 11

All right. Thanks again.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Michael Rehaut from JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 13

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. And also, obviously, nice results on the orders, nice to see the rebound from the prior quarter. First question, I was hoping to dig into the Freedom Homes rollout a little bit. Still on track, it appears and expecting to be in the 3rd of your markets by fiscal 2017 end.

I was wondering if you could give us a sense of and maybe remind us if we talked about this last quarter, but how does that Freedom Brands product differ from your corporate average in terms of ASPs and sales pace? And given that, it would appear that this is a market share gain opportunity, If this is something that is just getting revved up in this current year, is this something that you can further perhaps take share in your given markets over the next 2 or 3 years?

Speaker 2

Sure, Mike. We definitely agree with the latter part of your statement in terms of Zitz Healthiness continue to capture additional share. As David mentioned earlier in the call, this is a product that we don't think really is out there today in terms of a lower priced affordable active adult community, smaller community size, limited amenities, but good locations, kind of a lock and leave approach. So gated where we can and some pools and small clubhouses in markets like Florida. In terms of a price point, very early stages, so we'll adjust as we continue to roll it out, but we would currently anticipate it to run about 10% to 15% higher than a like Express product.

And we do have plans, as you mentioned at the beginning, to be in at least a third of our markets by the end of 2017. So not a huge driver of our 2017 results, probably more of a driver in 2018, but definitely something that's going to help continue to consolidate share and kind of rounds out our product offerings for the one place we weren't really playing before.

Speaker 3

Super large demographics favor that brand and as interest rates tick up, these buyers are less mortgage sensitive. So we're it's kind of a hedge against a little higher rate as well.

Speaker 13

No, that's helpful. And part of my let me just make sure I also get as part of that first question, the sales pace, how that compares to the rest of the group. And then my second question is, on SG and A, obviously continues to be a hallmark of the company. It was interesting, I was looking back at the past cycle and this in 2004, when you did a similar amount of homes closed that you're guiding for this year. You actually also had an SG and A of about 9.1%, it looks like in that year.

And what it struck to me was is that there are many builders today talking about maybe having a lower cost structure this cycle versus last, either through digital marketing, which is something that you guys talk about as well. But I was just the similar amount of closings and similar SG and A would suggest a similar cost structure. And I was wondering if there's some pluses and minuses to your business model from a cost standpoint. Certainly, what comes to mind is you have your 3 or 4 brands today, which might require a little bit more SG and A relative to your singular approach last cycle. But I was curious about some of the pluses and minuses on the SG and A front because on a top down level, it looks like the same cost structure?

Speaker 2

Mike, I think Bill will touch on the SG and A question in terms of going back to your follow-up Freedom and Absorption. Once again, very, very early stages for that brand, but we would likely anticipate it being faster than a typical Horton community, but probably not quite as fast turning as an Express community.

Speaker 4

And then, Mike, compared to the historical, we've looked at those historical comparisons as well. And you're right, as far as where we were on SG and A as a percentage for the entire year in 2004 at a similar closings was at a 9.1%. The difference between then and now is we were seeing significant price appreciation in our homes. In 2004, in the data that I'm looking at, it was a high single digit ASP increase then, which obviously creates a lot of SG and A leverage. And so today, we're achieving this with a much more modest ASP appreciation.

And we're not really quite up to our peak volume yet and with what we're on track for right now, our expectations, we're guiding to 9%. We certainly feel very confident that we can hit the 9%. But if we continue to see the improvements and efficiencies in our business, we expect to push beyond that before we get fully to peak volumes again. You asked about costs and where there might be some changes, certainly in terms of efficiencies from technology and you mentioned the marketing, certainly efficiencies there. Those are things that have been positives over the last cycle, over the last decade that are certainly helping to contribute.

On the cost side, frankly, the cost of regulations in running our business throughout our business in all respects of our business are significantly higher today at the local level and really all the way up through our business, which is something that we've had to absorb as well as everyone else in the industry is well publicized. So I would say that's probably one of the more significant offsets to the other efficiencies we think.

Speaker 2

The other big difference, Mike, between 2004, 2005 and 2006 and our business model today is we had extremely pretty aggressive growth targets in place that we were actually adding headcount and building infrastructure out for. Today, we are growing. We have a stated target of double digit revenue growth and we're making sure we were incurring and adding SG and A to be able to handle that. But we don't have to add at the same rate today as we would have had to back then to go after that.

Speaker 13

Great. Thanks, everyone. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question today is coming from John Lovallo from Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 14

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the call. First question is the orders in the West region seemed a little bit lighter than we had expected and to underperform some of the other regions. Was this community count driven or maybe the rollout of Express into California? I mean, what were the factors there?

Speaker 4

Hey, John, in the West, as we've talked about, we

Speaker 3

have not been investing as heavily in the West.

Speaker 4

We've been maintaining our position. Relative to our other regions, we've been making larger investments in other regions. So I think it's a reflection of just a little bit lower growth expectation there in our West region, which does reflect itself in community counts.

Speaker 3

And we did get, because we don't have the number of communities there that we have in some of these other regions, the delays in getting a couple of significant communities online can impact the quarter over quarter number.

Speaker 4

And we're in the very early stages of Express rollout there. So it's not the West is not seeing as much benefit in absorption improvements and efficiencies yet that we have seen in other areas of the country.

Speaker 3

We are getting those communities open and there is certainly a market out there.

Speaker 14

Okay. That's helpful. And then given some of Trump's rhetoric around bringing jobs back, particularly in the auto industry, is there any appetite on your part for kind of expansion into the Midwest, I mean, call it, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, have you guys considered that?

Speaker 3

We continually evaluate opportunities to enter

Speaker 4

various markets and we have looked at it When one makes sense for us, we do think that those markets may have been a bit underserved in the past and we'll evaluate those. But we do like our conscious positioning of where we focus the most of our energies and most of our capital into a lot of the southern markets and even where a lot of there's been a lot of auto manufacturers open production facilities across the South and Southeast that have been good drivers for us and sources of good business in the Carolinas and Alabama.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thank you, guys.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Jack Micenko from SIG.

Speaker 15

The pickup in absorption pace, I think was one of the biggest things out of the quarter. I'm wondering if you could give us or if you have the absorption pace improvement year over year for each of the brands. So Express, Horton and Emerald, just kind of get a sense of the relative mix and do you have that number?

Speaker 4

No, we don't by brand. We've got it here by region, but we don't have it here by brand in front of us. That's something look at and follow-up with later on, but that's not something we have right here in front of us.

Speaker 15

Okay. And then your capturing mortgage had a nice improvement year over year. What was driving that?

Speaker 4

I think a lot of what's driving the capture rate improvement has been a renewed focus by the mortgage company on improving their utilization. That's shown up in a lot of their operating metrics. Their operating margin is improving as they're getting better overhead leverage. As our volumes increase and we're serving more of the express homebuyers, the first time homebuyers, it's very helpful to our homebuilding operating divisions to have that customer managed through the mortgage qualification process into the backlog so that when the home is ready, they're ready with the mortgage to close and the service levels provided by our mortgage company to the homebuilder are very high in that regard. I mean, we're still out there.

The mortgage company is competing for the business customer by customer in a very competitive mortgage market, but they're able to deliver a higher service level to that customer because of the integration we have with the builder in a lot of cases.

Speaker 2

And Jack, to go back to your question, we were able to get our hands on the change in absorption by brand And really it was consistently strong across all three brands, a strong double digit increase in absorption.

Speaker 15

Okay. Okay. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Mike Dahl from Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 16

Thanks for taking my questions and all the color so far. Forgive my voice is a bit raspy. I wanted to ask about your owned option mix and you've been one of the few builders that's successfully pushed pretty meaningfully back towards optioned. And this quarter seemed to stabilize a bit, recognize that it's not going to be so linear, but over time, you can continue to mix that higher. Curious to hear if there's anything you can speak to in terms of either incremental successes or challenges that you've found in striking new option deals?

Speaker 4

Mike, we're still not to our goal of a fifty-fifty balance in our total portfolio of option and controlled. Very happy with the relationships we've been able to expand upon with developers across the Century. Key trade partners for us frankly in supplying the 1st raw material input to our business is land or lots. And we're very pleased with the increase of finished lots we've been able to tie up and partner with others to develop for us. That's probably driving a bit of our lot cost increase as a percentage of revenue or per square foot that we're seeing in our current deliveries.

It's a reflection of our strategy to try to have more lots provided for the company finished rather than us self developing as much. And we're seeing a big benefit of that in our focus on our improved returns. We're seeing our returns come up as a result of that. So there is no magic bullet to that. It's building relationships, partnering with the right people market by market, having the experience with them and the confidence to get projects on the ground and work through them together.

Speaker 16

And as part of the lower investment in the West, a function of just really that still being more of a cash market and given your focus on shifting towards this balance, it's kind of an intentional mix away from the West?

Speaker 3

We're not decreasing our investment in the West. The balance of it's we like the West. We made a lot of money in the West, but we're just going to be disciplined. And we have underwriting guidelines for everything we do. And whether it's in Texas or California, it's got to meet the same underwriting guidelines, which by definition is a capital limiter.

So But no, we're not reducing our investment in California. We're actually doing very well in the West, very happy with our performance and the returns that we're driving.

Speaker 4

Yes. And just continuing to work just like everywhere else to improve our returns in the West. Even though it is a more capital intensive area, it's still an area we want to improve our returns in.

Speaker 16

Okay. Thank you. One housekeeping then as a follow-up. On the warranty and litigation this quarter, is there any color you can provide just as you this kind of function of just as you've expanded in markets, just normal course of business or is there anything regional or more one time in nature?

Speaker 4

No. I mean, inherently the warranty litigation area is a bit volatile, a little lumpy from quarter to quarter. And that's one of the reasons why we give the range we give for our margin guidance is that's just an element that you can have some variability from quarter to quarter. And so the variability we had this quarter is not outside our normal range, a little bit bigger than it has been recently, but nothing highly unusual at all.

Speaker 16

Okay. Thanks and good luck this spring.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our final question today is coming from Jade Rahmani from KBW. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 17

Good morning. This is actually Ryan on for Jade. Thanks It seems that other real estate sectors are going through a period of price discovery as markets digest the economic outlook and the trajectory of rates. So can you say if you've seen any adjustments in pricing or bid ask spreads or demand in the land markets that you are currently purchasing in?

Speaker 4

We haven't seen any kind of an adjustment in land pricing at this point. Anecdotally, we're maybe getting another bite at a project that might have gotten by once. So some things may be falling out, but that's just anecdotally. It'd be hard to put a trend to that or to see anything else happening on a harder quantitative basis at a global scale for us.

Speaker 3

I will say, Ryan, we closed some deals in our Q1 that were as good as any lot buy we made in the last 4, 5 years. So there are opportunities out there and you just got to be out there looking for them.

Speaker 17

Thanks. And then my second question is a bit more nuanced. Have you seen any changes in the levels of competition in any of your markets from either single family rentals or multifamily apartments?

Speaker 4

We've not seen it's an alternative housing choice for a customer, but typically those sources of housing stock are great feeders for us into our business as people see changes in the rentals and the opportunity to have an ownership position and lock in their housing costs, very attractive alternatives. So we have not seen a significant change in our markets relative to those at this point. But we do help a lot of people get into their first owned home, out of a rental situation, whether it was single family rental or more traditional multifamily rental.

Speaker 17

Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 1

Thank you. We've reached the end of our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for any further or closing comments.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Kevin. We appreciate everyone's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you again in April as we share our 2nd quarter results. And to the entire D. R. Horton team, outstanding Q1.

You are truly the best of the best. Let's go Terum up in 'seventeen.

Speaker 1

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation.

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