Good morning. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the DTE Energy Business Update Call. All lines have been placed to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, again, press the star one. Thank you. Barbara Tuckfield, Director of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Before we get started, I would like to remind you to read the Safe Harbor Statement on page 2 of the presentation, including the reference to forward-looking statements. Our presentation also includes references to operating earnings, which is a non-GAAP financial measure. Please refer to the reconciliation of GAAP earnings to operating earnings provided in the appendix. With us this morning are Gerry Norcia, Chairman and CEO, and Dave Ruud, Executive Vice President and CFO. Now I'll turn it over to Gerry to start the call this morning.
Thanks, Barb, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. I have a number of positive updates to share with you today. I'll be giving you an overview of our long-term plan, including updates at each of our business units. Dave will provide details on our financials, then we'll take your questions. I'll begin on slide 4. In our updated 5-year plan, our utilities will continue to focus on our infrastructure investment agenda, particularly investments to improve reliability and the customer experience, and investments in cleaner generation. There are a couple of recent developments that support our customer-focused investment agenda, starting with the constructive electric rate order we recently received. The order is supportive of the customer-focused investments needed to ensure reliability.
While the rate order created a bit of a challenge to our plan, it was one of the scenarios we modeled, and we put plans in place to address it. Importantly, the sales forecast we provided was adopted in the final order. We maintained an ROE of 9.9% and a 50/50 debt-to-equity structure. Our recently filed Distribution Grid Plan provides a roadmap to improving electric reliability by more than 60% over the next 5 years. While executing our capital plan, we will continue to focus on maintaining customer affordability. DTE has a solid track record in cost management, particularly in 2023, as we face significant headwinds at our electric company. I would like to highlight our affordability performance. We recently announced a $300 million reduction in our fuel and purchased power costs that went into effect for our customers on December first.
Through this significant reduction, along with our long history of cost savings through continuous improvement, we will effectively manage affordability for our customers. As a matter of fact, you can see our bill increases since our last major rate case will be well below the utility Great Lakes average and national average, and also well below the general inflation rate. Our strong cash flows, supportive energy policy, and a constructive regulatory environment support customer-focused capital investments. Let me take a minute to clarify what DTE does with the cash and profits it generates and how it is supplemented with other sources that fund investments. For the broader audience listening to the call this morning, we have a chart on slide 15 in the appendix that shows how utility cash flows work.
This is simply an illustration of our cash and capital guidance slide for those who are not familiar with how typical utility cash flows work. Each year, we invest well in excess of the cash, income, and profits we generate. Therefore, we need to supplement our internally generated cash flows with incremental borrowing to support the level of capital being deployed for our customers. The additional cash is provided by debt and equity investors who purchase our stock and bonds, due in part to the supportive policy and regulatory environment in Michigan. This rate case supports our ability to economically access the debt and equity markets and raise funds for the important investments we need to make for grid reliability and our clean energy transition. Another significant event was the passing of the new clean energy policy in Michigan that the governor signed into law on November 28th.
This energy policy creates a very clear roadmap for the development of additional solar, wind, and storage assets that is consistent with the accelerated renewables build and cleaner generation path that we laid out in our IRP filing in July. The Inflation Reduction Act also helps us to maintain customer affordability goals while we make these significant investments into our system. Our updated 5-year capital plan is about $25 billion, which is a $2 billion increase over the prior plan, and our planned 10-year investment is over $50 billion. 95% of our capital will be invested at our two utilities. Investments in our non-utility businesses are strategically focused on our customers' needs and aligned with our clean energy initiatives.
Our 2024 operating EPS guidance midpoint provides 7% growth from our 2023 original guidance midpoint, and our long-term operating EPS growth rate remains at 6%-8%, with 2023 original guidance as the base of that growth. Today, we are also announcing our 2024 annualized dividend of $4.08 per share, consistent with our practice of aligning dividends in line with operating EPS. Importantly, we will continue to have a strong balance sheet and investment-grade credit rating support this customer-focused capital investment plan. Now let's turn to slide 5. As I mentioned, Governor Whitmer signed historic clean energy legislation, making Michigan a national leader with a 100% clean energy standard to fight against climate change.
DTE has worked hard to advocate for measures to ensure the policies in this package meet the needs of our customers, including achieving ambitious clean energy goals in a way that ensures affordability and grid reliability. Importantly, the clean energy standard is technology-neutral and provides flexibility for how we can meet these targets. The clean energy package states that starting in 2035, electricity providers will have to provide 80% of their energy from clean energy sources, which includes renewables, nuclear, and natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration. Utilities will need to reach 100% clean energy by 2040. The importance of storage is reflected with a 2,500 MW storage mandate with no limitation on utility ownership. Package allows for a financial compensation mechanisms when utilities enter into power purchase agreements for renewable energy and energy storage.
In addition to accelerating our clean energy transition, this legislation increases our opportunity to help customers reduce their monthly bills with new incentives for energy efficiency for both DTE Electric and DTE Gas. We may need to update our IRP before 2026, but the legislation pushes the pace of decarbonization and deployment of renewables in the state in a way that generally aligns with DTE's targets and our current IRP that reduces future costs to customers by up to $2.5 billion when compared to our prior IRP, approved in 2020. Now, let's turn to slide 6. At DTE Electric, our significant capital investment plan is focused on building the grid of the future for our customers and supporting the transition to cleaner energy. Our recently filed Distribution Grid Plan outlines our plan to build a grid of the future.
This plan includes the transition to a smart Grid with full automation within 5 years, resulting in smaller and shorter outages for our customers. We are also investing $9 billion on distribution infrastructure, targeting reliability improvements of 60%. We are continuing to accelerate our tree trimming program. We are also continuing our accelerated preventative maintenance by upgrading more than 10,000 miles of infrastructure. Finally, we are accelerating the rebuilding of our 4.8 kV system and pursuing undergrounding. The $2 billion increase in our DTE Electric five-year plan is driven by investment in cleaner generation that is supported by the updated IRP and our voluntary renewable program. Accelerating this renewable investment provides more affordable energy for our customers over the long term. The voluntary renewables program is still exceeding our high expectations.
As I mentioned on the third quarter call, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has recognized DTE as having the largest green tariff program in the country, fulfilling more load under contracted subscriptions than any other program. Along with the growing number of business customers, we have subscribed nearly 100,000 residential customers. Now, let's turn to slide 7. At DTE Gas, we are planning to invest $3.7 billion over the next five years to upgrade and replace aging infrastructure. Over the years, we have made significant progress and recovered investment through our Infrastructure Recovery Mechanism or the IRM. Since the program began, we have renewed over 1,700 main miles. These investments minimize leaks and reduce costs, and we are on track to complete over 250 miles in 2023.
Our Natural Gas Balance Program continues to grow, with over 13,000 customers currently subscribed. The program offers ways for customers to manage their carbon footprint through carbon offsets with our forestry partners in Northern Michigan, as well as renewable natural gas. At DTE Gas, we are on track to achieve net zero greenhouse emissions by 2050. Now, let's turn to slide 8 for opportunities at DTE Vantage. At DTE Vantage, we are planning on investing between $1-$1.5 billion over the next 5 years. We continue advanced discussions on Custom Energy Solutions, RNG, and carbon capture and sequestration projects. Our development pipeline at Vantage remains strong. The IRA improves decarbonization opportunities as enhanced tax credits allow our projects to be more economic, including carbon capture, RNG, and combined heat and power projects.
The RNG market growth continues and is supported by the Federal Renewable Fuel Standard and California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard.
...With that, I'll turn it over to Dave to give you a financial update. Over to you, Dave.
Thanks, Gerry, and good morning, everyone. I'll start on slide 9. As Gerry mentioned, our 2024 operating EPS early outlook midpoint is $6.69 per share, which provides 7% growth over our 2023 original guidance midpoint. We continue to target 6%-8% long-term growth from our 2023 original guidance. In 2024, DTE Electric growth will be driven by investments in grid reliability and cleaner generation. DTE Gas will see continued customer-focused investments in main renewal and other infrastructure improvements that enhance performance of our transmission, compression, distribution, and storage assets and support decarbonization. At DTE Vantage, 2024 earnings are largely driven by RNG and Custom Energy Solutions projects that serve as a base for growth going forward.
At Energy Trading, you can see we are guiding to an earnings level that is slightly higher than the 2023 original guidance. This is due to the sustained, robust margins that we have contracted in our physical power portfolio that are continuing into 2024. At Corporate and Other, the change is driven by higher interest expense and one-time tax items. Our long-term EPS growth rate of 6%-8% from the original 2023 midpoint of guidance demonstrates our confidence in maintaining the growth trajectory we have achieved over many years. Let's move to slide 10 to highlight our strong balance sheet and credit profile. We continue to focus on maintaining solid balance sheet metrics. Due to our strong cash flows, DTE has minimal equity issuances in our plan, targeting annual issuances of $0-$100 million through 2026.
Our 6%-8% long-term plan considers our debt refinancing and new issuances, and we continue to manage these future issuances through hedging and other opportunities. We recently extended our revolving credit facility with all 21 banks through 2028. We continue to have a strong investment-grade credit rating and target an FFO to debt ratio of 15%-16%. Let me wrap up on slide 11, then we open the line for questions. Our team continues our commitment to deliver for all of our stakeholders. Our robust capital plan supports our customers as we execute on the critical investments that we need to make to improve reliability and transition to cleaner generation while focusing on customer affordability.
The 2024 operating EPS early outlook midpoint provides 7% growth over the 2023 original guidance midpoint, and we continue to target long-term operating EPS growth of 6%-8%. Our dividend remains strong, and we continue to target dividends in line with operating EPS. DTE continues to be well-positioned to deliver the premium total shareholder return that our investors have come to expect with a strong balance sheet that supports our future capital investment plan. With that, I thank you for joining us today, and we can open the line for questions.
At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star, then 1 on your telephone keypad. And your first question today comes from the line of Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open.
Good morning, guys.
Morning, Shar.
Hi, Shar.
Good morning. Good morning. As we look at sort of, you know, the segment contribution, right, for Vantage, the long-term growth is obviously $15 million a year and annually, but 2024 only has about a $10 million step up at the midpoint. You know, obviously, Gerry, there's been some headlines around potential RNG segment being up for sale. I guess, can you just remind us what the EBITDA and earnings contribution is for that segment? You know, what they contribute to growth versus the other energy services, businesses, and book value, et cetera. Anything you can provide there would be great.
Sure. Maybe I'll start, and then I'll turn it over to Dave. But I would say this: we, you know, we like the businesses in our Vantage platform. You know, the Custom Energy Solutions, which is the behind the fence utility-type projects, as well as RNG, and we've got another emerging business line that we're getting into advanced discussions on with a few parties, which is carbon capture and storage. But you know, always looking for opportunities to optimize the portfolio from an asset perspective. So nothing that we can tell you that we're well advanced at this point, but we're always thinking about those types of opportunities. But Dave, do you want to talk about the earnings and EBITDA?
Yeah. Our earnings, you know, we split between our main two businesses there, which are our renewable natural gas business and our Custom Energy Solutions business, about a 50/50 split. We haven't really given out the EBITDA from that directly, but, you know, it's a strong EBITDA and strong cash flow generation that we've seen out of both of those businesses.
Got it. And Dave, just the book value of that business?
I don't have the book value in front of me right now, but Barb can get that back for you.
Perfect. And then, thank you for that. And then just on the CapEx plans, obviously, the majority of that $2 billion increase is coming from the clean generation segment, which you obviously highlighted in the prepared. Is the new sort of energy law plan and, and the IRP sort of incremental to your new base plan, I guess? How are you thinking about the incremental needs from, like, resiliency and the potential response you guys envision for storm hardening, addressing a potential PBR construct, and whether you could include this in the IRM framework? Thanks, guys.
Sure. So maybe I'll start. In terms of resiliency, you can see that, our investments in the grid are going to total about $9 billion over the next 5 years, and we're expecting about a 60% improvement in reliability. Much of that driven, you know, by continued tree trim, aggressive plans over the next 5 years, as well as, we've really put a plan in place to automate the grid, fully automate the grid the next 5-6 years, and that'll have a fundamental impact on the duration of customer outages during big storms, as well as, the number of customers that are out for an extended period of time will be fundamentally reduced.
So we're looking forward to making those investments, in addition to what I would call significant amounts of preventative maintenance on poles, wires, substations, that sort of thing. And we'll also start our long-term journey of converting our 4.8 kV system, which is quite old and needs to be replaced. We'll start that journey over the next five years as well. So significant amount of investments into the grid from a resiliency perspective. The increase in renewables investments was primarily driven by the IRP settlement as well as the legislation.
What I'll say about that is that that settlement and the legislation drives a, you know, an investment profile that saves our customers about $2.5 billion over the next decade or so, and that's primarily driven by the IRA. That's something that if we take advantage of in the current pace, we'll certainly be able to pass those tax credit benefits on to our customers.
Perfect. Thank you very much, guys.
Yep. Thank you, sir.
Touched on it. Thanks, Gerry. Thanks, Dave. Bye, guys.
Your next question comes from the line of Nick Campanella from Barclays. Your line is open.
Hey, good morning, everyone. Happy Friday. Thanks for taking the question.
Morning, Nick.
Morning, morning. So I guess, you know, really encouraging to see you raise CapEx $2 billion across the five-year program. No, no real incremental equity here. It definitely bucks the trend of, you know, what we've seen many of your peers have to do in terms of, you know, financing their new five-year plans. Can you just kind of expand on what's allowing you to do that in this way? Is it just the cash flow from the Vantage business? Are there other sources of financing that should be contemplated, or is it just the balance sheet being in a better spot? Thanks.
Yeah, good question, Nick, and it's really a combination of all of those. We generate really strong cash flows across our business. The IRA has helped support that because of the tax credits that come from some of the renewable investments we're making and the investments we're making at Vantage. And then, as you know, we target a strong investment-grade credit rating with 15%-16% FFO to debt. So as we grow, we take on a little more debt and stay within those, within those metrics, and that allows us to keep our equity that we've shown over the next three years in that $0-$100 million range. So it's really strong cash flow generation across our businesses that's supporting that, that lower equity still with the increased capital.
Thanks. And Dave, I know that corporate and other, when I'm just comparing 2024 versus 2023, there's higher drag here. I think you kind of mentioned a one-time tax item for 2024, but can you just kind of unpack what the drivers are there and remind us of what that tax item was in your prepared remarks?
Yeah, it's really... There's a little bit of interest in there, but it's, it's really one-time positive tax for 2023 that we haven't forecast to repeat in 2024, and really around some state tax benefits that we were, we were seeing in 2023.
Okay, that's helpful. Thank you very much.
Your next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra from Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
Hey, good morning, team. Thanks for giving me time.
Good morning, Durgesh.
Good morning, Durgesh.
Good morning. Good morning, Gerry. Good morning. So Dave, just on the tax topic, can you remind us whether you are currently a tax cash taxpayer or not? And if not, when are you expected to pay cash taxes? And then part B of the question, are you assuming, just like your peers, some cash flow from transferability in the financial plan?
Yep. We're currently not a cash taxpayer. With the minimum tax coming in, we may be a slight cash taxpayer in 2025, but with some more credits that come on, we think that'll dissipate again going forward, but it's really slight in 2025. As far as the transferability of credits, we are generating credits in 2023, some PTCs from our wind assets, and we'll continue to do that. And we do think it's a better value for our customers within our utility that we transfer those, and so we will be looking to do that. And then we'll be generating some credits within our Vantage business that, since we can't use those for a little while, still better value for us to transfer those too.
So we will be looking to do that, and it's in the $80-$100 million range for 2023 from our electric business.
Perfect. Thank you. I appreciate that. And then, Gerry, just big picture, strategic question here. As you're thinking about investments in carbon capture, and I know you mentioned just being sort of the, you know, looking at RNG businesses and always looking you know raise capital. Can you just high-level talk about your regulated versus non-regulated earnings mix, given sort of you have opportunities in the carbon capture, you might be considering, you know, some sell-down opportunities in the RNG? How do you, how do you think about that?
Yeah, we're—Great question, Durgesh. We're very committed to the 90% of our earnings coming from our utilities and 10% from the non-utilities. So as we see, you know, continued growth opportunities in Vantage, you know, we look to maintain that 90/10 mix for the long term. And so that as carbon capture and storage, we're looking at very small projects right now, $80 million-$100 million of CapEx. You know, long-term contracts with unlevered IRRs in the low teens. And so it's a very attractive business, and so we're getting down the road with a few parties to finalize those arrangements, so we're feeling good about that.
But as that business grows, we'll look for opportunities to recycle capital and create incremental value for our investors in terms of accretion so that we don't get beyond that 90/10 mix.
Thank you, guys. Congrats here. Thank you.
Thanks.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JP Morgan. Your line is open.
Hi, good morning.
Hey, Jeremy.
Morning.
Just wanted to see with, you touched a bit on, in the prepared remarks, I think, on, on the hedging for, for interest rate exposure. Just wondering if you could provide a little bit more detail there as far as what levels are hedged and over what duration of time? Just trying to see what type of sensitivities there might be in the plan, depending on how rates move.
Yeah, good question. You know, we do have some parent debt that we need to refinance near the end of 2024, and so it's about $2 billion that comes in the last quarter of 2024. So we're actively hedging that because we've incorporated our plan, we like our plan, and so we can find opportunities to hedge that debt and just solidify our plan, we do that. Right now, we have about half of that hedged, and it's over the durations that we think we'll be issuing the debt for at that time.
Got it. That's, that's helpful there. Thanks. And then, maybe pivoting a little bit towards the, carbon capture side. Just wondering, I guess, what type of, timeframe do you think that this could really, like, be a meaningful portion of the business in any sense, or really pick up, you know, we've only seen so much activity for the industry as a whole at this point, so just wondering over what time frame you think this matures? And then at the same time, you know, how you think about specific geographic regions where you would target, carbon capture, if that's just kind of local, to your near your existing assets, or it could be, wider than that.
Well, right now we're targeting, you know, the Midwest area, so we're staying pretty close to home. I would say it'll start to create value, likely in 2025-2026 timeframe. You know, what I would say is we're down the road on commercial discussions with some large CO2 producers and, you know, I would say that we'll probably wrap up some of those arrangements in the first half of next year and then start towards moving towards execution.
So, and again, we're dipping our toes in this business, and we see some synergy with our utility business, especially our electric company, because, as we move forward with our coal retirements, we're gonna likely need to build a carbon, a combined cycle plant, a large combined cycle plant with carbon capture. So, starting to understand this business and this technology is gonna be not only key for growth in our non-utility business, but also will support the growth and investments at our electric company.
That's helpful. And just one last question on this point with regards to the value chain here. Is the focus across the chain or is it just the capture? If there is any transport, is that kind of short haul pipe? And when you think about the sequestration, what type of wells would be in use there? Where would that be, and is there any use case that you see right now?
So we just in terms of the value chain, we each arrangement is a little different, but some arrangements go from the capture portion, which with pure, almost pure CO2, is pretty straightforward, and then we compress it and put it in a very short pipeline. The three projects we're looking at have less than a mile, some are 300 or 400 feet of pipeline. So we're not gonna be in the, you know, these long-haul pipeline type projects here with these smaller investments. And then we'll drill wells, which we're familiar with doing with our large storage business we have at the gas company, and we're using a lot of that expertise to inform where and how and when we need to drill those wells.
So, we're very confident that in the Midwest, there's very good formations to store carbon dioxide. We're blessed with good geology in this part of the world to be able to do that.
Would these be Class VI wells, or what type of class wells would you-
We will have to get EPA permits for the wells, and we're developing those submissions as we speak.
Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Sullivan from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Hey, everyone. Good morning.
Morning, Michael.
Morning.
Hey, guys. Yes, so good to get the rate case done. Not to jump ahead, but just any expectations for timing and size of next rate cases, both electric and gas?
The gas case will likely be filed in the first quarter of next year. And, you know, it's been quite some time since we've had a gas rate case. I think we're pushing on three years or more. And, on the electric, in the electric business, likely, a filing in the first half of the year. One of the benefits is that we're starting to see the IRM plan, but it's not. It'll grow over time, but I think that'll continue to make our rate requests smaller, if you will, as that IRM starts to play into our planning.
Okay, great. Thanks. And then just shifting over to Vantage. If when you think about any sort of, you know, sell downs and recycling capital, how should we think about where any proceeds would be going? Is it just all the future Vantage growth or how do you think about that?
Yeah, I think, well, you know, as you know, we don't have a lot of equity needs right now, but we do have debt needs, so we can use it to pay down corporate debt. You know, there are also if we had additional, we could use it for some of the capital investments we're doing within Vantage or to buy back some shares in the event it was large enough.
Okay, great. Thanks.
Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Weisel from Scotiabank. Your line is open.
Hey, good morning, everybody.
Morning, Andrew.
Andrew.
First, just a quick follow-up on the equity question. You guide through 2026 versus the CapEx plan goes through 2028. I know this isn't new for you. Many of your peers do the same thing, but just directionally, I'm wondering if your expectation for the outer years would be consistent at that $0-$100 million per year range, or do you see anything that might change that?
I would say right now, Andrew, like, we do just give the three year, but our, our cash flows through our plan, you know, support equity issuance is similar to this going forward, too.
Okay, great. Next question is on the CapEx plan. The $25 billion over 5 years versus $10 billion over 10 years, is that conservative? I would have expected higher levels that were around the turn of the decade versus the middle of the 2020s. So is your expectation that that 10-year plan will increase follow updates around the Distribution Grid Plan or the IRP, maybe?
I would say we'll have to, you know, as we step into it, you know, we'll continue to update that. Andrew, you'll remember last year was roughly $40 billion, right? And so we've stepped it up quite a bit, year-over-year. But each year, we'll continue to look at what the needs are. You know, it's hard to forecast beyond the 5-year plan, but there is plenty of opportunity, as you know, especially with investments into the grid, and also the renewable resources and our transition of our generation fleet in general. But I would say the only thing that limits how much we put into the 10-year plan is really affordability. We try to model affordability, and so pace of investment is important.
But as we look out into the future, one of the major updates for us will be is, how will EV adoption and margins start to play into this? Because as that plays in, it could create significant opportunity for us to accelerate our capital plans and help finance this on behalf of our customers, so that we don't put, you know, what I would say, excessive burden on our customers as we invest.
Sounds good. If I could squeeze one last one in here on O&Ms. I heard your comments earlier, and I see the slides are reiterating the $270 million targeted savings for 2023, which is great. Following the rate case and a little blur of time here, are you able to talk about the outlook for 2024 O&Ms and how much of the 2023 savings are one time versus sustainable?
Hey, I'll start, and then I'll turn it over to Dave. I, you know, as I mentioned in my opening thoughts here this morning, that there is some pressure on the plan. We had anticipated that pressure through modeling various scenarios in terms of rate case outcomes, and we have plans to address it. And part of those plans is to take advantage of some of the learnings we had as it relates to O&M in 2023. We've, you know, we've mentioned that some of those would stick, and so that's what we've put into our plan. But Dave, do you want to elaborate?
Gerry, that's exactly right. You know, we're—because of, with this rate case outcome, we are going to have to continue some of those savings that we saw in 2023, and we built up a lot of knowledge and a lot of understanding across the business to be able to do that. You know, and as we build these plans, you know, we now have a storm budget that we like, and we want to build in some flexibility for unfavorable weather and storm that could come up during the year as well. So that's where we're going to be really focusing our O&M to ensure that we do that.
We know we have to bring a lot of what we're cutting back because there's some non-critical maintenance that we have to make sure we do and some other things that we'll do. But, you know, we're going to still focus on trying to keep as much of these savings as we can for our customers and help with affordability.
All right. Very good. Thank you, guys.
There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Gerry Norcia, I turn the call back over to you for some final closing remarks.
Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us today, and I'll just close by saying we're feeling very positive about the remainder of the year as well as our position for future years. I look forward to seeing many of you after the holidays. Happy holidays, and please stay safe.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.