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Citi 2019 Global Property CEO Conference

Mar 5, 2019

Speaker 1

Welcome to the 11:35 a. M. Session here at Day two of Citi's twenty nineteen Global Properties CEO Conference. I'm Manny Korchman, and we're pleased to have with us EastGroup Properties CEO, Marshall Loeb. This session is for investing clients only.

If media or other individuals are on the line, please disconnect now. Disclosures are available here and on the webcast on the Disclosures tab. For those in the room or the webcast, you can sign on to liveqa.com, enter code Citi2019 to submit questions. And with that, Marshall, I'll turn it over to you to introduce your company and management team and provide the audience three reasons why investors should buy your stock today.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Manny. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for your time this morning. Know it's a busy conference, so we appreciate you taking your time out to hear the EastGroup story. To my left here is Brent Wood, who is our Chief Financial Officer.

And on the other side to my right is John Coleman, who runs our Eastern Region, which runs from Charlotte down to Miami. Three reasons to own EastGroup. There's many reasons, but if I had to only pick three, I would say, one, our track record. We've been a REIT for a little over been around over forty years. Last year, we were the top performing industrial REIT.

And if you look back over a three year, five year, ten, fifteen, twenty year period, our average shareholder returns have been in those kind of anywhere from 10% to 15% returns. So a long term long track record of steady performer, good shareholder returns. So we like that. In this environment, over the last couple of three years, if you look at the end of the year, our average return in our development pipeline, for example, was 7.4%. The buildings we pulled out of our pipeline last year averaged just over an 8% return.

And if you we're a long term owner, but if you took those to market, it's really the value accretion of our development pipeline. Took those to market probably anywhere from a 4.75% to 5% type cap rate on balance for those. So we're getting large spreads on our development pipeline. That's been able to help us create NAV over the last several years as we can pull more and more buildings through our pipeline as rapidly as we can. And then the third reason, and this ties into the second reason why our developments have worked so well, You all have seen all the industrial REITs have benefited from the shift to e commerce.

Where EastGroup kind of fits in within the food chain of the industrial REITs is we'll typically build our average buildings maybe 90,000 to 140,000 feet, where a lot of our peers will build a and we'll build a business park, an infill site business park, multiple buildings is really our bread and butter. A lot of our peers, public and private, will build much larger buildings on the edge of town, 5,000,000 square foot type logistics chain distribution centers. And as e commerce or really retail evolves to rapid delivery, we're seeing each quarter more and more of a shift to retailers figuring out how do we accommodate people that order online and want it delivered this afternoon or tomorrow. Where it used to be two day delivery or three day delivery work for Amazon, that delivery period continues to get compressed. And that works well for us in that last mile or our buildings are close to consumer.

And we've built about half of our portfolio today. So very new state of the art buildings, work functionally and are also very close to populations.

Speaker 1

Great. Thanks for that. What's the biggest potential disruption to your business? And what are you doing to take advantage of it or mitigate the risk of it?

Speaker 2

I think in looking at that, still think e commerce or as it evolves could definitely a technology disrupt industrial. Like I'd say, near term and maybe like all the REITs, I'd say, some black swan economic event, kind of a little bit like how earlier in the year felt. That would disrupt us. But this shift to e commerce and last mile, we're seeing tenants that we wouldn't have had in our portfolio two, three years ago, where all of a sudden we're having multiple locations with them. And maybe a few years ago, and they still work, you would have heard us describe our portfolio, a lot of it by ports.

We like being near the airport, near the freeway. We still like to be near the freeway access. But it's a little bit it reminds me of having had some background in retail, where if we can go on the side of town where the population growth and usually the higher household income growth and typically comes with that the education, some more shopping online. So what works is a distribution center. Some of our locations almost have a little bit of a retail overlap now where in Atlanta, where John covers, we're up Georgia 400.

So it's in that golden triangle, as they refer to it, where there's a lot of household growth, a lot of high net worth individuals that works well for that last mile delivery. So it's a little bit of a disruption or shift of how we think about locations maybe than we would have five years ago.

Speaker 1

Are you seeing those shifts within your current tenant base? Are you seeing other new tenants coming to you looking for space? And at which point you're trying to sort of churn more in your current Yes.

Speaker 2

The good news is our kind of our old line tenants, in this economy, have continued to do well that and even shift more kind of a good question. I'm thinking of some leases we've done of later like Emzer Tile, tile companies where they'll build, really looks like a retail showroom in the front of their space or Ferguson. Ferguson Plumbing, I guess, is how I think of them, where the front 10% of their space is a showroom, and they'll put significant dollars into that build out, where it's a little bit of a showroom with a distribution in back. So our traditional tenants haven't gone away. It is new users like a Wayfair or that Lowe's?

John just signed a couple of leases with Lowe's in the last ninety days. And we may have had them, but we see them rolling out more of a footprint where before you wouldn't leave with a washer dryer, obviously, in your car, but rather than have that stored in the back of their retail store, now you're able to deliver from an EastGroup warehouse to your home this afternoon. So the good news is our traditional tenants are still hanging in there and doing well. It's names that we hadn't seen in the past that Tesla is another name that we've had show up on our radar where they're rolling out more cars and they need a place to store parts and do service and things like that. So it's tenant names that we haven't seen.

And what's interesting is they'll pop up in one or two or three locations, it feels like in a few months.

Speaker 1

Are you tempted to play in the bigger box sort of more regional distribution space? Or do you like being in that

Speaker 2

I like sticking to what we know. I mean, I think there's a lot of guys that are here at the conference that do the big box distribution space well. I think we're in the second day of the conference. Earlier in the conference, I was saying one of the things that's underappreciated about our company, and I'll switch that to maybe under articulated about our company. When we build a business park, we'll typically think of us almost like a residential subdivision builder and that we'll start with a building or two.

And as those buildings get leased and we have activity and are getting the rents we underwrote, we'll start the next building. So our supply really gets pulled by the market. There's a couple of markets, and we're talking with John earlier, where we're out of space in Charlotte, we're running out of space in Orlando, where most of our peers on that big box, you're typically on the edge of town, and it's more of a for us looking at a bet, like if we build 800,000 feet in Northern New Jersey, I think the market will support it or 750,000 feet South of Dallas, where to us, it's let's build 200,000 foot buildings. Oftentimes, they'll share a truck court. And as those lease up, we'll build the next one and the next one.

So I think our development risk is much less than our peers. Our returns have been a little bit higher on absolute numbers. So I like where we kind of fit within the industrial food chain, and it's what we have the most experience at, too.

Speaker 3

Yes. Would even add to that, Matt. I just think that's what makes us different or separate is we've stuck to that multitenant approach. Most of our core peer group, as Marshall said, they can build bulk distribution, they do a good job of it. But it's one of the things that's really differentiated us from the group.

And there's actually more supply, more competition, less barrier to entry, more commodity feel as you get into the bigger bulkier boxes than, again,

Speaker 2

of

Speaker 3

our multi tenant focusing on the 20,000 to 50,000 square foot users. So what is as Marshall said, we've executed on that strategy and we'll keep pushing that forward.

Speaker 1

So maybe a question of that, what keeps the competition out? Is it just too much work? Is it too little capital outlay per deal?

Speaker 2

Probably two reasons, and probably I'm putting them in almost in reverse order. Our average if you went through the math, our average new project is $12,000,000 And then with the spreads we're getting, when we were able to pull it out of the pipeline, it's worth about $18,000,000 So the returns are good. They've been there. But at $12,000,000 most of our peers and so many of those are still private, the Clarions, the AEWs, say, they don't really do tons of development, Blackstone. But for them to put out $12,000,000 at a time, they'll stay busy but not move the needle.

It's garage sale items to them. And then the other thing, if you said what's disruptor worries us a little bit, not a it's not exactly a disruptor, but finding land is incredibly hard. We like infill locations and fast growing Sunbelt markets. And finding land, since we only build one story, is industrial. And with our rents, land quickly gets priced beyond industrial, like in Houston, where there's no zoning, for example, they're saying so much of the land has been gobbled up by the multifamily developers over the last several years.

So finding land is what we think is really holding people back as well that supply for there's a CBRE study, we're showing that shallow bay deliveries are still below the peak before the last recession. That people I guess that's the other reason not to build big box. There's so many other people that do that. And at the $12,000,000 per building, we'll have a lot of starts to get to our $140,000,000 projection of starts this year, and that wouldn't move the needle for some of our peers.

Speaker 1

How much does your land bank allow you to build at this point? And then maybe to your point on how hard it is to buy land, how do you find the next land site?

Speaker 2

We have a good couple of years of runway, and that's broadly speaking. Some markets were tighter than others. The way we're structured, which I like, we're I guess another nice point of EastGroup, I'd say we have the lowest G and A in our sector. So no Chief Investment Officer, no Chief Operating Officer. And like I'll let John kind of talk about finding land.

But if you're one of our three regionals, you're really responsible for everything that happens from Charlotte to Miami within our portfolio, and they spend a lot of their time looking for that next land site so that we can keep the development cycle rolling to kind of keep what's the next subdivision basically that we're going to build. And I've kidded them and been a little bit apologetic to our Board. Every land parcel we buy now seems to have a story to it. In South Florida, we're redeveloping what were horse stables that Churchill Downs had. We've looked at brownfield sites that a bank has cleaned up.

We recently acquired in Texas. The greenfield sites that we would go acquire and we could build rapidly on are pretty much gone. It's Brent acquired some sites. Brent ran Texas for us that were one in Dallas, one in San Antonio, where the vision was for retail. And those owners, we bought the back half of it.

And then the owners finally gave up on the retail vision, and we were able to buy the front. And maybe, John, since you do it daily, any comments?

Speaker 4

Sure. A big part of my job is to make sure in a very active market that I always have that next phase of development ready to go. We don't like a gap because we want to continue the momentum that we were successful in the prior phases. So it's an ongoing process for my markets Eastern region. So I'm always keeping an eye out for that next land site.

And what's nice about our product type, as you mentioned, is a smaller building. We can actually target some sites that are in the twenty, thirty, 50 acre range. So we don't necessarily have to have the large site. We don't need the big bomber site. So some of those sites have been passed over just because of the size of our overall development.

Also, we're willing to roll our sleeves up. It doesn't necessarily, as Marshall said, have to be a greenfield. In Charlotte, for example, I did an assembly of eight different residential owners, that required a rezoning. But we started that process early enough so that when our third phase of that park was ready to go, that land had been fully entitled, rezoned and permitted. So it's a and right now, you have to be very creative.

And I think that's the one word we look at, creative on land use, location and how we work through that land development process, we have that next phase ready to go.

Speaker 1

Marshall, if you think about the customers you talked about at the beginning, more typically last mile than anything else to however you want to define that, how far is that from like the population center? So John mentioned a piece of residential land. To most of us in the room, sounds odd that residential land would be turned to industrial. It doesn't sound like it's the right direction. How far is that from sort of where people wanted to live that it makes for good industrial space?

Speaker 2

We'd love to get as close to the residential as zoning would have let us, I guess, really. It probably would be as long as you're near a freeway entrance too, if you could have both of these. And in Charlotte, this is our Steele Creek site. We're near the airport. We're near the freeway, and it just and it was residential nearby as well.

So we're if you can get, I think, for that quick delivery, the better. One interesting, we went to Fort Worth. We've been in Dallas for a couple of decades, but went to Fort Worth, really. And as we met with brokers or looked around Dallas that it crossed 1,000,000 people. There's a lot of net worth or economic growth within that market.

And in talking to some of our tenants, and it played out like Goodman HVAC. So again, I'll use them maybe as a national company, but an old line economy where their comment was we're spending so much time, our guys are in the as Dallas grows, the traffic gets worse. So if it's July and your air conditioner is out, you want the guy there quickly. So we have them in Dallas, but then they also took space in Fort Worth. And we've had a couple of tenants that have done that.

And then we hear that in Phoenix as well. We like the East Valley, which is typically the preferred side of Phoenix, but where people need an East and a West Valley location. And if you're driving around Atlanta and John pointed to John since he lives there, as you all know, the traffic is horrible. So it's nice to get one location on the outskirts of town, probably if you have two hour delivery or this delivery this afternoon just won't work. And that's what we're seeing at it was at a CBRE conference last week.

This was their kind of National Partners Conference. And they talked about e commerce and logistics. And not that it's run its course, but the logistics chain has certainly played out much more. They gave an example of an Amazon warehouse in Kansas that Amazon had vacated because their strategy had changed so much. But really, this last mile quicker delivery is a much earlier inning feels like in the game than how do we get goods from China to New York or China to Chicago.

That's not ninth inning, but it's a later inning than how when if Amazon is still figuring it out and Lowe's and people like that, it's still coming or we've seen it. So if we can keep edging near the consumer and ideally a growing consumer base, which is what we like about our Sunbelt markets and have that ingress, egress where you can go in different directions quickly. I think and then the benefit of being a REIT versus private equity, if you think of capital allocation, we can sit back and hold the properties for ten to twenty years versus an IRR type model. So I like kind of where we fit on that from a capital structure as well.

Speaker 3

And if we come to your neighborhood, we fully expect your support on the zoning change.

Speaker 1

So outside the Sunbelt, you're not coming. I guess when you think about that, it's a good question on markets. What other markets could we see you either growing in or entering? Atlanta was a somewhat newer one for you recently. What other sort of opportunities like that are out

Speaker 2

We like our I guess, broadly based, we like our footprint, and it's hard to do in this market, so we'll be patient. But we're under allocated. If you looked at us like a portfolio, under allocated in Atlanta, We're looking to hire someone here in South Florida. We've got product here. We've been here, but we'd like to grow here.

We hired someone or displaced someone in Los Angeles to cover California. So we're under allocated. So rather grow in some of the first preference would be to grow in some of the markets we're in, where we're already in Denver, we're already in Las Vegas, for example, Austin, Texas. We've been we're developing there and growing there. And then if we didn't get to any new markets for another five years, I want to have opportunities, but we'd probably be okay with that.

That said, we do look around within our footprint. We've spent some time in Greenville Spartanburg, South Carolina. John's been to Nashville. In a hot market, we're probably a little bit late to Nashville. A lot of our peers are there.

We've looked at Raleigh, North Carolina. So again, we're not in your for instance, we're not in your neighborhood, I promise. But at least kind of within our geographic footprint, we would stick. And that would be our second preference. And really, at some point, in case something came up in Raleigh or Nashville or Greenville, we said, all right, we can take a day and the good news is the brokers will meet with you for free.

And if you go from the Cushman office to the CBRE to the Stream office, you can get a pretty quick education on the market in a day or two trip there.

Speaker 1

What's your edge in a market like Southern California?

Speaker 2

I don't know that we have an edge so much there. Probably our product type, again, there's a lot of people in Southern California, would be that most what we're not Inland Empire East looking to build the big bombers, as Brent referred to. What we it's really time and what we've bought there has been more opportunistic. So we're we've done two deals on the cusp of a third deal there, knock on wood, that we're close to. One was really just riding around with a broker.

One was off market, and he pointed out a building where the owner had some family disruption. They thought they would sell the building and then the business. So we did a short term lease, bought the building, did a short term lease back there, but we think it's a little bit what we've looked at is all value add. We bought a vacant building in San Diego, but we had a couple of tenants within our portfolio that both wanted to expand. So we expanded one, And our Ocean View project took one down to Cempra Viva, which was our other project and then got the balance of that lease.

So again, there we found an owner user who was willing to sell. And then the third deal is also a creative. It's a covered land play, where we would buy the land, get some income if we can get there with it and then develop it when that lease burns off ideally. So we're trying to turn over a lot of stones, and we bid on assets that get listed. We'd lost one last week, but we typically bid and lose.

So I don't expect to win too many of those. We lost on a project in Atlanta last week. We lost in Southern California. But the good news is we can afford to be patient, and we'll grow there over time. And it will probably be value add or something that's a little bit has a story to it, almost like our land acquisitions of late have all had some kind of story to it of why left over, why it's available.

Speaker 1

Someone asked the question here, what is the risk of oversupply?

Speaker 2

Right now, we're much more worried about demand disruption than oversupply. We've just not seen it. I guess there's always a risk of oversupply, but we're not seeing it at all. And that's one of the things when we entered Atlanta that we liked was we drove around the market, and you can look at development numbers in Atlanta, and they're pretty large. But for the most part, it's big box south of town.

And even in our submarkets, it's not there. I was just looking at Atlantis, 15,000,000 in construction at year end. And in 2018, dollars 18,000,000 square feet of absorption, 20,000,000 square feet of absorption. So you're seeing large numbers in places like Dallas and Inland Empire. And but so far, demand has kept pace with inflation.

And then in Dallas, as we dug through it and we got to shallow bay, only about 10% of the deliveries really were applicable buildings in terms of depths. Because a big building, if you lease 40,000 feet, it's you're going to end up with one dock door and a bowling alley. And that owner, it's not economic for that owner to build that demising wall and the tenant improvement. So it may as well be hotels being delivered as 1,000,000 square foot building. So that we'd like again, knock on wood, if we're struggling with land, it's frustrating to us.

But the good news is our peers are just as much as we are.

Speaker 1

Is there anyone out there solving that smaller space dilemma, if you will, by taking those big boxes and dividing them. In my mind, I'm thinking something like what WeWork is doing on the office side. Is there someone that's at scale doing that on the industrial side where they're saying, I'm happy to put up the demising wall because I'm just going to churn through tenants and that demising wall is my competitive Yes.

Speaker 2

Good question. There's two companies that we've run across that kind of fit that. They're a little bit different, but there's a company Flex that's out of Seattle, and it's we haven't dealt within. And then there's a CubeWorks, It's out of Southern California, and they are in one of our projects, took about 90,000 feet. And we've met I haven't, but our guys that run California have met with their owner.

It's a young guy. And kind of their pitch, it's metal walls between at least for now, they could change it, between the spaces, shared office space. So it's a little bit that Airbnb, like you described, WeWork. And they describe it as someone I think it's a good maybe feeder for us, I'm an optimist, where you've out you have a home business, maybe you're selling on Amazon, you've outgrown your garage or your spare bedroom, and you go take space month to month in one of these locations. And then I hope they outgrow that and move into our space.

We just signed a lease in Phoenix, little bit different, but it was someone that came out of it's in Mesa, out of the business incubator. They outgrew that. Their financials are a little more solid. They take the space as is. So we signed a lease.

So I'm viewing Flex and QWorks as, okay, hopefully, they help people move from Garage to almost like a Regis or WeWork's. And then maybe if their business keeps doing well, they'll move to a direct lease with us, hopefully.

Speaker 3

I think they even leased space to Overflow holidays, wasn't it? Amazon or Walmart?

Speaker 2

Walmart took space over the holiday seasonal space from them, too. So that was so again, we're trying to watch it and see what's out there. But so far, it feels more of a help than a disruptor or a threat, and that they took 90,000 feet on a sublease and then a direct lease after that from one of our tenants.

Speaker 1

Sort of like an oversized self storage?

Speaker 2

Yes, yes. Self storage with an office shared office component.

Speaker 3

But an ability to receive goods in a dock high truck, which you can't do in self So a lot of these guys have some form of inventory that they need to bring in on an open road truck, and then you can't pull that into a self storage unit. But they don't need 20,000 feet or something like that. So it's 90,000 feet that we otherwise probably wouldn't have leased because none of the individual people in there with them could have taken down anything of size.

Speaker 2

I'm about getting the details other than the demising walls run don't go to the ceiling. Let's say you don't have a firewall like we typically have between our tenants. So if your racking gets really intense, those again, they could change their model, but those models don't work. It's maybe a 12 foot, 15 foot high foot metal wall between the spaces. So they're growing fairly rapidly, and we'll again, we met with the ownership, and we'll see where that goes.

But again, what I my hope is, is, hey, it's kind of like Tesla and Wayfair and all the other names of, okay, here's a there's a million ways to use our buildings, which I love of here's one other user that's out there on the horizon that we hadn't seen a couple of years ago or a year ago.

Speaker 1

A question here from the room. What's the short to medium rental growth outlook given the strong demand?

Speaker 2

Last two years, we like we'll report our cash and GAAP releasing spreads. We like the GAAP numbers because you capture the free rent and the rent bumps. So last year, we were 16% portfolio wide for 8% and then for 2017, we were 17%. I would if I were building a model, I would probably put that high same high teens number in. And then near term, and I've been wrong today, I thought with construct is the markets are this tight.

Everybody most of our markets, 94%, 95%, 96% occupied and construction prices coming up that there'd be more of a rent spike. So I'll keep predicting it. I can't really point to anything within our numbers just yet to say, but it feels like just anecdotally or intellectually that rents have to there's going to be continued upward pressure on rents. And then that's what we're hearing as we bid on properties, too, that cap rates haven't they've come down in secondary markets like a Denver, a Phoenix, Orlando, Charlotte. They've flattened out in the major markets, but that buyers are underwriting higher rent growth.

That's how pricing continues to go up even though cap rates really haven't fallen that much as people are institutions are expecting more and more rent growth over the next decade. Questions in the room?

Speaker 5

So have you heard about this initiative? At least a couple of the public storage REITs have called Warehouse Anywhere?

Speaker 2

A little bit, but go ahead, Dan. I don't I won't say

Speaker 5

I'm not too Well, it's a national network. It's, I don't know, how many thousands of units that they have that they can they market to potential users for short term or long term warehouse opportunities. And they actually it's right here, where they actually fit out the space with what they call a chandelier, and they can do that. It's basically for package shipping and things like that. So they can locate it, as you said, close to where they are.

Speaker 2

Just don't And know how the truck think it's ingresses. Yeah. And the size of the bays, too, I wonder about. Yeah. Mean, I think it's interesting, and they'll probably do some.

Our and we're smaller. Our typical tenant size is around 30,000 feet. Would be And

Speaker 4

those are probably

Speaker 5

This is much smaller.

Speaker 3

Those are hundreds of feet. Yes. So that would be Etsy store owners and that type thing where that would work very well. Just it is for the last mile, if not.

Speaker 2

Okay.

Speaker 5

I'm just curious. And then the other question I have, which actually was Manny's question earlier, but there's been so much conversation about the last mile and EastGroup obviously been doing this for a long time, but just recently it seems to be a lot of talk about it. So it's hard for me to envision that there are more there's more encroachment on your strategy and what you're trying to do even among the private

Speaker 2

We're not the only guys out there, I like this xylophone, but that it's usually a regional local regional developer with an institutional partner. So John will run into competition, but it's not the majority of the supply you would read about in Atlanta or Dallas or Phoenix. And so I won't say we have the market we certainly don't have the market to ourselves. But of the industrial REITs, we're the only guys that DCT did some of this. They were probably a year ago, you had asked me what REIT is the closest to you, we would have said DCT.

And they did a little of both, but they would build some of that. But now that's and ProLogis will do some of it, but they're so big, they can't pardon my from the outside, look, they can't only do that. So it's usually a local regional player with Clarion, AEW, Heitman, someone like that as their partner that we'll run into. And it's just not that much. You do hear more about it of late and maybe that's we thought it's just a shifting retail chain.

It's our same strategy that we've had for remember, was trying to like our twenty, twenty five year track record. It's just there's been new tenant demand that continues to grow over the last handful of years.

Speaker 3

And we've even bought some of those properties from some of those local regional developers. We had a project in Fort Worth that was newly built, we liked, it was partially leased. So we worked a deal where we got a better yield than if it was 100% leased, but maybe not quite as good had you done it totally spec yourself. We did that in Las Vegas, looking at another project there. So sometimes you can't beat them, join them.

Sometimes you look at that maybe even as an opportunity to pick up a value add situation.

Speaker 6

I'm curious about your land position. Obviously, it's played a critical role in the growth of your enterprise over the years. You indicated before that your land bank is now a couple of years. I'm wondering, historically speaking, was it always a couple of years or was it more? Is do your remarks really camouflage?

What is the crunch in terms of obtaining land?

Speaker 2

I'd say crunch, I hope and again, couple of years, part of my little bit hesitancy was what's the economy like over the next it could be five years if the economy gets bad, a couple of years could get drug out. But a couple of years at this economy, our development starts, which I view as a good thing, were up. We had a record number of starts last year. We look to match that this year. So as fast as a shareholder, as fast as we can move the land through the bank and then to develop stabilized buildings, then that becomes NOI.

And so that's our goal. I hope I am. I hope we run through it faster than two years, really, but we're always out looking for those next land parcels. And I've said I have an odd love hate relationship with land and that you want to have enough to continue the development pipeline. But if you have too much land, what we remember in the last downturn, that nearly killed some of our competitors because then it becomes carry rather than opportunity.

So we try to look at it by market and do we have enough land to kind of carry us in each market for the next

Speaker 6

So in terms of constraining and disciplining your behavior, what percentage of your balance sheet are you willing to apply to land? And how much of your balance sheet are you willing to put in terms of properties under development at any one point in time?

Speaker 2

Good question. We informally, we kind of said that land, we'd like to have no more than 6% of the balance sheet. And we're at about three we're about half that number now, 3%. We've also kind of said it gets a little tricky in Miami and Southern California. You can buy a parcel that's not that big, but it's very expensive compared to some of our other markets.

So it could ebb and flow within that. And then we look at what we call our low earning assets, which is land, what's under construction. And then Brent mentioned some of our value add kind of lower yielding opportunities until they stabilize. And that's in the higher single digits. And so we probably would start if that started creeping into double digits, we'd probably start to think about that.

Or the other side, at least look at where it is. I mean, if it's is it a building that's complete that we're in lease up or a value add where the gestation period could be pretty short versus land, where you're a you may be a year or two away or entitled or unentitled land. So we also, when we look at our low earning assets, we kind of it's a United Way thermometer that it's a thermometer looking that's color coded because if it's really we just need to get a lease or two signed, it could come out of that pipeline fairly quickly. But that helps, that's how we think

Speaker 1

about it. The fires will wrap apart here. Will there be more or fewer industrial REITs a year from now? Fewer. What will same store NOI growth be for the industrial sector overall in 2020?

Speaker 2

Three percent to 3.5%.

Speaker 1

What will the ten year treasury yield be one year from today? 2.6. And in what year will The U. S. Enter a recession?

Speaker 2

2021. Thank you.

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