Good afternoon, everyone. My name is Erin Wright, Healthcare Services Analyst at Morgan Stanley. Happy to have everyone with us today, and happy to have Elanco Animal Health with us, too. With them, we have Jeff Simmons, President and CEO, as well as Todd Young, EVP and CFO. Thanks so much for coming.
Yeah, great.
Yeah.
Good to be here.
First, some important disclosures. Please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure website at morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. If you do have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative. And with that, I will hand it over to Jeff for some opening comments.
Great. Yeah, we look forward to the dialogue. We had some great meetings. Thank you, Morgan Stanley and Erin, for all you do in animal health. So yeah, just maybe at a high level, Elanco, we've been pretty consistent here over the last year and really on through even twenty twenty-five, that there's three key drivers to our value, both internally, it's our focus points, and externally, even to the investors. So it's all about growth, innovation, cash. We've had four consistent quarters after finishing the second quarter with growth. We've got a stabilizing base business. We've raised our guidance up to 3%-4% constant currency growth for this year coming up. So we're seeing again, stabilizing base. We're seeing some nice growth from US farm animal and our overall farm animal business.
International Pet is showing some nice growth here in the first half of the year, and I think innovation, all the innovation sales, we've, you know, raised our innovation guidance for the year, but innovation going into our portfolios has helped us stabilize our core, so a growing company, and we continue to see that being essential, that with a stabilizing base with all the innovation we have coming, that'll be a positive, so on the innovation side, first of all, our existing innovation, when we launched, Erin knows this, Elanco, when we came out post-Bayer, we said, "Hey, we've got a $600-$700 million of innovation by the end of 2025," and we've been charging down that path since anything launched early 2021.
We just raised our guidance to $400-$450 million of innovation this year on the road to $600-$700 million next year. And of that, four hundred to four hundred and fifty million, you know, we've raised, that would be a $150 million jump from 2023. And, you know, we would see things like Experior in cattle that's starting to approach blockbuster status. AdTab, which is a parasiticide, oral parasiticide in retail in Europe. Our parvovirus, our first monoclonal antibody, and the Credelio family outside the US, especially in cats, are really driving that growth. So... And then, hey, we've got three blockbusters over the next three quarters.
We're launching Bovaer now, Zenrelia, our atopic dermatitis JAK product, next quarter, and then we look for Credelio Quattro, the broad spectrum, and we'll get into all this in the first quarter of next year, and then our IL-31 next year. So six blockbusters when you look at what we have coming to the market and what we have now. And then on cash, Todd and team has done an amazing job of just the stand-ups behind us, the systems are behind us. So we put a lot of cash the last couple of years into the standing up, the separation, and bringing Bayer in. That's now behind us, so free cash flow conversion went up significantly.
We sold our aqua business to Merck, and so we paid down a little over 20% of our debt here in the first half of the year. And really moving our leverage target to headed to high, you know, mid-fours this year, low fours, high threes times levered at the end of next year. So growth, innovation, cash, a growing business, stabilizing base, historic innovation that we've got to launch well, and a stronger balance sheet that really gives us a lot more ability to move forward and make the right investments. So that's where we are as a company.
Great. And another kind of bigger picture question, just as you think about the $600 million-$700 million of innovation, I mean, that's a growth contribution, but at the same time, there's other drivers and underlying drivers across your business. I guess, does that get you to more consistent top-line growth, closer to industry average? Is it sort of low to mid-single digit growth as we kind of more consistently exit sort of, or see traction for some of these new products, or is it higher than that?
Yeah, no, we aren't giving guidance, but you know, I do believe that it's going to help growth rates, it's going to help more stability, more consistent growth. You can see the impact of this, no question. It's also going to be everything, with probably the exception of Bovaer initially, is going to be accretive to our margins. So those are my thoughts. I don't know, Todd, anything you'd add?
No, I agree. We've seen the benefits that innovation brings to the base portfolio. Certainly, Rumensin is going great. I mean, it's back to almost 90% of where it was before generic entry because of the power of Experior. We're excited to expand the Experior label to be able to address heifers at the end of this year, which expands that market by 30%-40% of feedlot cattle. All of those things are going to help us continue to have, you know, positive top-line growth, that with our fixed infrastructure costs being behind us, we'll be able to lead to better profitability growth.
Yep. Okay, so let's start with Zenrelia.
Yeah.
Since that's the topic of late. Can you provide an update on the exact timing around the admin review here as we head into the end of the month? And then when we'll also see the head-to-head study data for the product?
Yeah. So we are in the sixty-day administrative review for Zenrelia. We expect an approval by the end of this month. Don't have an exact timing of that. We do plan to have an earnings-like call shortly after the approval, and we'll be launching the product simultaneously. So we have product supply ready to go, so all this will be moving. We'll also expect to be launching in Brazil kind of in simultaneous time. During that call, we have an expectation of really sharing the details, sharing the science, sharing the label, sharing the head-to-head study that actually was part of the European submission. So against the market incumbent, we've been pretty open to share that we've got an efficacy differentiation, better performance, and we will show that.
On the call, we'll have both Bobby Modi, that leads U.S. Pet Health, talking about the launch plans in detail, as well as we'll have the appropriate, you know, scientists on there that will actually be able to articulate what we're gonna be doing from the tech-to-tech launch plan. So we will have all of that shortly right after, and we'll have that with sell-side analysts and be able to answer questions as well.
Okay, great. We'll make sure to be on that.
Yeah.
But then really, as U.S. label obviously includes the box warning on safety, can you provide, I guess, an update on how you're thinking that this impacts adoption in the U.S. versus kind of maybe your prior expectations? And that, I think you've previously said that it limits treatment days by about 25%. Is that still how you're thinking about it? How did you get to the 25% number?
Yeah, a lot there. So I think I come back and just anchor to a few things. First is, we have a product here that as you look at the market today, we're excited about the derm market. The derm market is growing, it is growing in the US, it's growing globally. There's still millions of dogs that we believe are not, you know, they're itching dogs that are actually not being, you know, administered by any of the current treatments today. And I think we and all the industry leaders believe this market is headed to be continuing to be. It's the second biggest market, but one of the fastest-growing markets. The number one reason people come to the vet clinic, so and it's in the US and international.
Only innovation is gonna make that with more noise and more innovation. It's gonna make the market grow. That's assumption one. Assumption two is 70% of veterinarians today are saying consistently in the market research, "I want a second option on my shelf." That we see is very important. That leads really to saying, "Hey, the most important thing is we want better efficacy and we want better value." We believe we've got better efficacy, and we're gonna be able to provide better value. Todd can maybe articulate a little bit more how we're looking at that in detail. It gets to the safety piece, which, as we've said, we've adjusted our launch plans, given the box warning, to do a vet-to-vet, kind of on the ground with the veterinarians initially.
What that's gonna entail is what vets want. Vets want KOL. They want to be able to have key opinion leaders talking to them. They want to have data and published data supporting, you know, what actually came and drove that label and how they can look at it, and to be able to have vet-to-vet exchange. We're gonna be able to allow, you know, a one-on-one vet exchange in a very quick, easy way. That's gonna be our approach. The 25% is all around, you know, the vaccine response study and some assumptions made, and I'll really kind of hold until we get to that call, where we're gonna be able to articulate specifically protocol use. We have protocols that this product's gonna be able to use, adherence with the label.
Remember, when an FDA approves a product, it is deemed safe and efficacious when used with the label. We have a safe product that, you know, will come to the marketplace, and we'll have protocols that will be able to be used in chronic cases, acute cases, and seasonal cases. So all itching dogs qualify for this product, and we'll have protocols that will be able to do that. So that's-
And then you've conducted these surveys, I guess, and you got to that 70% of veterinarians that want a second product on the shelf. But did that, you know, assume the narrative around or, or assume the assumption around kind of a box warning? And what, what was the feedback when you gave them, I guess, that question as well? I think-
That di-
you've surveyed your customer base.
Yeah, different market research. I mean, it's... Look, we've got to separate those. We've got to address the safety. We know the vet community wants an alternative. That's where the 70% comes from, and we know that they want better efficacy and better value. So we believe we have that. So what does that lead to? We need to address the safety, and we believe we can do that, and we're gonna show how we're gonna do that, and show the data behind that and the strategy behind that upon this earnings call.
And when I think about a second product on the shelf, I also have to think about, you know, veterinarians and inventory, what they're holding in terms of the inventory at their clinic, and do they wanna have, you know, two different types of products? Do they have to have two different types of products to fully service the atopic dermatitis market, or do they have to have three types of products, for instance, like an injectable as well? And so do they have to have both in-clinic to fully service the market?
Again, we've seen typically, vets carry more than one product. Most of them carry more than one parasiticide, even though the parasiticides generally do the same thing pretty effectively. With respect to the derm, we think, you know, they're more than willing to have that additional product, especially given, you know, what we think is gonna be, you know, a more efficacious and easy-to-use product that will be able to address dogs that are both using Apoquel and Cytopoint. That'll be what our goal is, to get that clinic penetration, to get that experience as early as we can as part of the launch, because we think once that's get that experience, they're gonna be really pleased with the results for their patients.
Based on the disclosure to date, it sounds like every dog this can be used on, like in terms of like every dog could use this product, but it depends on duration, and if I'm understanding it right. Like, what is the limitations? Is it six months? Is it nine months? Is it just timing around vaccines? How do we think about that in educating the vet around timing and protocols around the product?
Yeah, I think the best way to articulate that will be on our call that will be coming. But I think the most important is, you know, we will make this clearly, you know, to the label, how the vet can use it, and then be able to provide the support to them with both data and key opinion leaders to be able to support their decisions. And, given what we have as the profile of the product, we believe we're going to add a lot of value to the marketplace and expand the marketplace in doing so.
Do you think you can use it beyond kind of seasonal chronic?
Absolutely. I mean, again, you know, a chronic dog is not on average 365 days a year. They're on less than that. So, you know, we very much view this as applicable to all dogs, you know, over one year of age that are vaccinated.
Okay. And so if the vet's holding kind of two different products on the shelf, like, how are you then thinking about price and price as a lever? And how should we think about that, and how willing are you to use that as a lever, kind of from a competitive standpoint?
Yeah, we've always said we'll price our products to their value, and we know that, you know, the box does change our perspective versus if we didn't have a box. Again, the first goal is getting early experience from vets, from pet owners. And so, you know, how we think about price on day one versus how we think about it, you know, six months in, one year in, will be different. You know, we'll get into that more on this call. But, you know, certainly, we know that there's a goal to have some lower-priced alternatives in the derm market. At the same time, we've got a great product, and so we're not going to change this whole marketplace either, given, you know, the quality of the overall product we have.
We believe, as we've said, all market archetypes with good innovation in pet, when you bring a differentiated innovation, we see the market expanding in size. We see that. We'll hit new markets. But there's no question to Todd's point that, you know, vets are going to want to be able to have not only the alternative, but to have the value options as you go forward. So that's... And I think our data will support, you know, our approach. But as I've said, the most important thing we will do out of the gate, we will launch immediately with product into the marketplace, and with that, we will have, you know, the incentives will be lined up to get more product into clinics to be able to get, you know, them to get it into pets for experience.
With that, then, too, I think the value and the opportunity comes quite naturally.
Okay, great, and I hate to belabor Zenrelia just because, I mean, but it is an important part of the story, and the oral solid atopic dermatitis currently on the market, about or nearly half of it goes online. How do you address that? How do you think about leveraging your relationships with the Chewy's of the world, and how you can kind of penetrate that arena as well?
Absolutely. Todd, you've been driving some of this.
Yeah, it gets to, you know, it starts with the vet. You know, you can't get it online until you get it prescribed in the vet clinic. So our focus really is getting it there in the prescription. We do have a great relationship with the online retailers, both through our Rx products as well as the OTC. So, you know, we fully expect to have an early presence in online channels as part of, you know, continuing to get that adoption.
Okay. One other question: How long will it take to get to blockbuster status for Zenrelia?
As I've said initially, we're going to make sure this is going to be the best launch Elanco's had globally. We're going to do this right, and so we can't give you specifics on that until we get into the marketplace, but we're confident it's a blockbuster product, even in the U.S. We're confident that we've got the right team in place, we've got the right strategy, we've got a product that's differentiated, and we've got the data to support that, and we will invest accordingly, and it all comes back to the first two metrics, our clinic penetration and then dog penetration, and making sure that we've got the right support behind that.
Okay
... as quickly as possible, and that will be our intent. We know how important this is. I mean, we're entering a second-largest pet market with a, you know, a differentiated asset, second to market, and then one to follow with our IL-31 that will come in twenty-five.
Okay, I'll skip the other 10 questions I have on Zenrelia and move to IL-31.
Yeah.
and so-
Yeah
... but we'll stay on atopic dermatitis. And update on the timeline for the IL-31 product with the USDA. Is it fair to assume that this is a twenty twenty-five type of approval launch? And, you know, are you scaled up from a manufacturing perspective, and what has changed in terms of what the USDA is looking for?
Yeah, nothing's changed. It's a USDA-approved product. It is a product, an IL-31 short-acting, came from Kindred. It's differentiated, we believe, at this stage. Again, the USDA wanted more dogs, more reps. That's a requirement. They had more for the class. We're conducting that, and it's tracking for a 2025 approval. I will emphasize there's a lot of activity right now in animal health, in the mAb space, in the monoclonal antibody space, and a lot of transactions. We are second to market. We've got our parvo monoclonal antibody on the market today. We spent time even with our board here in the last couple weeks out in our manufacturing facility. We've got a CapEx plan that Todd and the team and Grace are working on. We will be ready from a manufacturing standpoint. I'm confident in that.
And Ellen is doing a tremendous job with her team. We brought in even some key talent from human pharma and other areas to really drive our organic next-gen monoclonal antibodies that will be in both derm, pain, and some other areas as well. So, you know, we're second to market in Mabs, and we have no intention to do anything but to sustain some leadership in that space.
Your timing on the long-acting version of your-
Yeah
... injectable atopic dermatitis.
Yeah, we've not given the timing on that and don't intend to at this point in time, but we have a long-acting, and behind that, we've got a next-gen as well that, you know, a portfolio that Ellen is working on.
Including pain?
... Yeah, and derm. I'm answering the derm.
The derm.
The first one is short acting. It's differentiated to what's on the market today. Got a long-acting following that, as well as a portfolio of next-gen derm as well. Yes, please.
Switching gears to Quattro. I guess, Quattro will be differentiated, and then you've previously disclosed in terms of the parasite coverage that you'll have in terms of protection, making it somewhat differentiated on the market. But what's the strategy in terms of taking share? What's the strategy from a price perspective, leveraging distribution? Like, how are you thinking about the rollout strategy?
Yeah. So just everybody, Credelio Quattro, again, is in administrative review as well, like Zenrelia. So that was expected a fourth quarter approval. So we know the label. We know it's, you know, the it's in that administrative process, so a lot of stuff behind us here. So we're excited about it, and we intend to launch in Q1 of next year. So a couple of things that I think when you look at the strategy, first, the space overall. If you think US parasiticides, you've got a $4 billion market in US parasiticides, and Elanco's got about $300 million at this point in time. $1 billion of the $4 billion are the two broad-spectrum products that have come to market, about 25% of the market. The last twelve months has been growing about 40%.
So we're coming in with a product that is differentiated. One is we have first month, you know, protection on heartworm that's differentiated from one of the products, and then we have the broadest coverage against them both with tapeworms. So, you know, I think initially, notionally, we've got a smaller amount of product in that space at $300 million, so we expect less cannibalization. And then, you know, secondly is, hey, Zenrelia is going to help. We have a portfolio play. We've increased our sales force. We're going to use the share of voice, we're going to use both the, the, you know, the vet clinic penetration as well as our digital and DTC capabilities, and look forward to a Q1 launch in the biggest, fastest growing space.
And again, I think the Zenrelia at Q4, combined with Quattro Q1, will really put us in a good place.
And the manufacturing ramps there, it's-
Yeah, manufacturing ramp will be, it'll be the same kind of supply chain as we have with Credelio now and others, but as I've said, post the approval to the actual launch, we will be scaling the actual manufacturing process and our process validation, which is common for active ingredients in one pill, so there'll be some steps that we need to take on that between the time we get the approval and the final launch that will be in Q1. That's the current-
Will it be out by VMX?
You know, we'll-
Okay
... we'll see, but, you know, our intention is to definitely take advantage of that opportunity in that show.
Yeah. Thought I would ask. And then on, you just mentioned the cannibalization. I mean, a lot of that is already kind of played out. And so, you know, how much of there is left in terms of cannibalization that you would assume? Because there's also... You can leverage selling a broader portfolio and a comprehensive portfolio in parasiticides.
Right.
I mean, even your competitors do that today.
Right
... successfully. So, how are you going to navigate that with the sales force and with kind of the various channels you play in?
Yeah.
I mean, we agree, and to the extent, you know, a lot of, you know, Trifexis that's been on the market a long time, used to be the market leader in orals, is being cannibalized. You know, we'd rather cannibalize it ourselves than it continue to be cannibalized by the other broad spectrums on the marketplace, so we do expect there to continue to be separate therapies, right? There's a lot of loyal Trifexis users. It will continue to be a key product. Similarly, Credelio, Interceptor Plus will get used. We don't expect it to be all, only the complete combos, so again, that has declined. We've slowed that rate of decline as the notional size has gotten smaller, and then, you know, as we launch Credelio Quattro, just like we've done it with Credelio Plus internationally, we've continued to grow our business.
You know, in the U.S. right now, Credelio is still growing, both for dogs and for cats. So, you know, that complete portfolio will have value, especially when we add derm to it. Again, we'll be there neck and neck with Zoetis, but ahead of BI and Merck, right? We talk a lot just with Zoetis being the other public company, but we've got two big competitors as well, where we're going to have a broader portfolio in the vet clinic.
Yeah, and then talking about sort of that broader portfolio, too, in terms of what's next in parasiticides and a long-acting injectable product being, you know, worked on by, I think, yourselves as well as a lot of others-
Right
... too, in the industry. But how do you think about the opportunity around that? It is a different type of practice protocol. It's a different type of product. Is it as quick of a rollout in terms of as you think of it being a game changer relative to the combinations?
Yeah, I think-
Overall combinations.
Yeah, I think there's more segments than there's probably ever been in the pet market, both through the vet side and the pet owner. There's no question that, you know, that there's already that technology out there today, and I would say that, you know, it's all about, I think coverage matters, convenience matters, value overall. Vets want to make money. Remember, this is critical too, and a critical part of the equation when you think about launching. So I would say a factor that's becoming bigger and more important that COVID catalyzed and accelerated is convenience. So compliance is up in our industry. You know, when you start thinking about, you know, everything from the drop shipping to making things just a lot easier and more convenient, that matters.
I think that, you know, injectables are good, but the more times and the more routines to go back is something that's a factor. But it's something we're all working on. It's going to be part of the next generation, just like monoclonal antibodies, long-acting injectables, new therapeutic classes are all areas of where we're headed as an industry.
... And then, commercialization efforts as we kind of ramp up these new blockbuster products and where are we at now in terms of the investments that you've already made, but also, you know, incremental costs? And then as we think about sort of the caveats to the label with Zenrelia, there's also incremental costs, but were some of that pushed out as well in terms of the ramp-up, or was it a reallocation of what would've been DTC, more now focused on the vet clinic-
Right
In terms of promotion or in terms of education? How do I think about that? Sorry, there was a lot in there.
Yeah. So we expanded our vet sales force, including technical vets, you know, managers on the ground reps, at the start of this year by about, you know, 25%. You know, so that's embedded in the base. They're all in their territories. They know their customers, and they've all been trained on Zenrelia, and all the stuff we'll disclose on the call. So, you know, that group is ready to go. With the warning label, we do think that education becomes more important earlier than maybe we expected before the label surprise. So with that, that group is ready, and they're gonna be a key factor in driving this clinic penetration and then driving, you know, the experience for the vets.
From a DTC standpoint, you know, we still expect to use DTC with Zenrelia, but it's probably been phase shifted because we think in-clinic penetration will be slower, and therefore, you push DTC out. But it'll still be a key component. You know, the sales force investment, it's there, you know, it's in the base now. Incremental investments will be, you know, some of the marketing efforts and continued education and then, you know, DTC, when we decide to launch it. Similarly, with Quattro, we've got a sales force to do our complete portfolio. So Quattro will be more, you know, in terms of when DTC starts on that.
But excited to be in the market with the products and, you know, as we move forward and get more real clinical, real-world experience, we'll continue to adjust our plans.
Can you have those conversations with distributor partners already now, for instance, ahead of Zenrelia launch or ahead of Quattro launch, or do you have to wait till everything is out there from a label and approval standpoint?
There's certain levels of disclosure that can be shared, but I mean, you know, we've had a long-standing relationship, and-
Yeah
... you know, there's definitely opportunities, and some of that can be assumed to be done at this stage, yes.
Okay, great. And then let's talk a little bit about near term then, in terms of the guidance, what's implied for the second half. In terms of top-line growth, can you parse out? There's a bunch of moving pieces 'cause there's FX, and then there's Aqua and some other things in there.
Right.
So can you map out kind of how to think about the third quarter, fourth quarter from here?
Yeah, so we've guided the second half at, you know, 1-3% on a constant currency ex Aqua basis. So, you know, that's the driver. That includes, you know, contributions from Zenrelia and Bovaer. It also includes the two different countries, where we've announced at the start of the year, we'd be taking down sales from that of about $50 million, which is a little more than 1%. There's a bigger impact on that in the second half than the first. We also had the recall of Kextone that impacts us in the second half. You know, U.S. farm has been growing, you know, really well the last four quarters. You know, that slows in Q4 as a lot of the vaccine resupply that has been driving some part of that growth is no longer, you know, additive.
It's, you know, in line with where it would've been last year. But, you know, overall, you know, feel very good about the base business and, you know, all of our businesses continuing to move forward on growth.
Okay. And then, Bovaer, I wanted to ask you kind of an update in terms of, you know, timeline, magnitude of contributions, kind of margin profile of that sort of offering, and expectations in terms of the ramp, just given the adoption and the customer education needed around that?
Yeah
type of market.
A lot of... I think this is our long-term runway and tailwind for farm animal. As farms, I think, as you know, start with cattle, but the whole idea of methane reduction in dairy and beef cattle is a $1-$2 billion market. It will create another income stream for dairy farms and beef farms. I mean, ultimately, a cattle farm has to be on a path to climate neutral, where they're capturing as much emissions as they're giving, and they've got to make money doing that, and we believe that the value chain is already stepping up to want to do that. So I think that's kind of the higher level mission. We think Bovaer can be $200 million, even just in US dairy alone.
We're seeing some of the value of that already with Experior and Rumensin on both beef, with Experior, Rumensin, and beef and dairy. So then, as you start to think about Bovaer, what is critical is really we're building a capability, and that's why we're really excited about, you know, the medium and long-term future of a farm animal, is if you think about three kind of keys to the value chain of an inset market. One is the dairy farms. So we've got a proprietary database called UpLook, which actually gets loaded into a dairy farm that measures emissions.
They can actually say, "If I put an intervention in, like Bovaer, that can impact one ton of carbon per dairy cow per year, and that has a value." We've got that on about 500,000 dairy cows, headed to a million, of the 9 million dairy cows in America, which actually is independently certified from, you know, environmental NGOs that allow them to do that. The second is dairy processors. They're lined up. They even got USDA. They're the ones that get the USDA incentives to pass to the dairy farms. We've got the seven major dairy processors all lined up to do that. The next is the actual CPG company. So you think about the major dairy CPGs, they're at the table now, contracting with the independent people to actually buy the carbon.
So I would say we plan to put Bovaer into dairy cattle and start to prove out this inset market this month, here in September, and that's tracking nicely. What will drive the inflection point will be the CPG company's contracts that go into 2025 to actually go. The dairy farmer demand's probably beyond what we can supply and our expectations. The dairy processors are all a go, and the USDA incentives are in place. It's the contracting with the CPG companies. And it's not an ESG movement. It's not a, "Well, this is a Scope 3." This is about, hey, a couple pennies per gallon on a $4 gallon of milk that turns into $20 a cow for their dairy farms. So it's economically sustainable. So look for September, making it happen.
Q4 will begin to start to scale, and then it'll be a 2025 key revenue driver. Not as much margin as we know, until we get the new manufacturing.
And so thinking about all these different kind of moving pieces, you have Zenrelia, you have Quattro, you have Bovaer, and then the other innovation pieces that you're driving. You have the base business, that there's some moving pieces there as well. But, you know, what's the update in terms of your long-term vision of the mix of this business, longer term, in terms of livestock versus companion?
Yeah.
Inherently, kind of how much more skewed are you towards those, you know, higher growth, higher margin segments and that long-term margin target you have in your mind at this point?
Maybe a couple things on the vision, and I'll give the margin question to Todd. But just at the very highest level, when we came out independent and we acquired Bayer, the goal was to be an independent company, the second independent company that can reach the world's animals. We've set up the supply chain. We've got the SAP in place to bring a flow of innovation. We now got six blockbusters between what we have now and what we're going to have by the end of next year, contributing to major, you know, margin expansion. That's a key player. And then to establish leadership and look at animal health in these segments. Farm Animal, we expect that to continue to be... whether that's 45-50%, but it's going to be a key contributor, and we're leading there, and livestock sustainability is key. Pet retail.
Pet retail is a key part of our business, and we're leaders in pet retail. And then you've got PetVet, is where we're going to be adding this four-dimensional offer and bringing it. So the vision has become a reality. We're now an execution story. That's, that's kind of the. That's, that's the vision and the numbers and the strategy.
Yeah, I think overall, you know, this innovation is going to drive the top line. We're going to become a consistent top-line grower, and then we're going to leverage that to higher profitability, as I said before. As you get bigger standalone products, and that's why we're so excited about the big spaces we're in, you know, $200-$300 million products are always a lot more profitable than $30 million products. And that's where, like, Credelio Quattro, going into the biggest product area in pet health, Zenrelia going into the derm, bringing IL-31, short acting, long acting, this next generation. You know, we do see that continue to grow in the high-margin pet business. That'll help us increase profitability over the years to come.
Okay. Okay, great. And then just lastly here in the last minute, since I didn't talk about it, just like underlying industry fundamentals in terms of-
Mm-hmm
... pet health versus livestock, anything that we should be thinking about as you're thinking about your business into 2025? I know a lot of it's focused on innovation right now, but underlying demand trends across each of those segments.
You know, I think we've diversified our business with the omni-channel approach on pet. We've got good diversity and durability in the portfolio. We like the compliance, the spend. The resiliency of spend on the pet side continues to be quite strong. That's a positive. I think poultry is pretty resilient. We're pretty, you know, in a good position there. I think cattle, overall, even though the numbers are down, are strong. What are the pulls against? I think China is still a challenge and will be a challenge. I think, just the fundamentals in the marketplace, both on the pet side, and then I think global pigs is going through a little bit of a... China's got its own issues. The U.S. has an oversupply of meat and low feed costs, which doesn't bode well.
So those would be the two pulls that I would see overall.
Okay, great. Thanks so much. I appreciate the time.
Okay. Thanks, Erin.
Thank you. Thanks.