All right. Let me sit here. Why don't we over one? We good? Did you want to make any, Chris mentioned maybe just I could do a quick opening, one minute or so. That's good.
Well, good afternoon and welcome to TD Cowen's 45th Annual Health Care Conference. We're delighted to have Elanco here once again this year. Representing the company is Jeff Simmons, who is the CEO. I think Elanco and Jeff have been here, I think, every year in your public existence, which is probably some sort of record that's never likely to be achieved again. So congratulations, and I think you wanted to start out by making a few opening comments, and then we'll launch into questions.
Okay, great. Thanks for the interest, Elanco. Yeah, we're in an exciting time at the company. As we've gone independent, we acquired Bayer for the mix and the scale. We've doubled down on innovation the last couple of years in a big way. And the last couple of years, our theme has been very simple. What's going to drive the value of this company is growth, innovation, and cash. Earnings call last week, I think we reiterated the progress we've made. And just the headlines on each one of those, the last three years, we've had an increased acceleration of growth. We've had six quarters of consistent growth. I think it's probably the highest quality growth we've had since we've been independent, with nine out of ten countries growing, our top five franchises growing, farm animal pet health growing, and we're guiding to that 4%-6%.
We had a 3% year in constant currency. All this is in constant currency, 4% in the fourth quarter, and we're guiding 4%-6% growth. The second is innovation. I think the big story here is it was a year we had five major U.S. approvals last year. We have a basket of six potential blockbusters, with a seventh coming late this year. Those six, we have raised the innovation guidance. We exceeded in 2024. Back in 2021, we said this basket of innovation will contribute all of our innovation, will contribute $600 million-$700 million. We've raised our guide to be $640 million-$720 million for the year. They're all in major markets. Parasiticides, $4 billion market. We've got Credelio Quattro, Zenrelia, kind of the second animal health company now to have derm in addition to everything else on pet.
And that's a $2 billion market, approximately $1.8 billion-$2 billion market. And then we've got a couple of cattle products and Bovaer and Experior. Experior has already hit the blockbuster status. And then we've got AdTab in the pet retail and Parvo. So a nice mix. And then cash, we had our best operating cash flow, over $500 million, paid down 25% of our debt. And have kind of moved from about a 5.6 leverage to now 4.3 or so on the leverage side. So that will continue to be our focus this year, growth, innovation, cash, increasing our guide for growth, our 4%-6% accelerating the increased innovation, and then continued focus on delevering as well. So I think the negative is just FX.
I think otherwise from November to our earnings call last week, everything has either gotten a little better or continues to be the signals we sent in November.
Great. Maybe we can drill into 2025 in particular. So what scenarios would lead to results that would be at the high end of the guidance range and what might lead to maybe at the lower end?
I think there's no question a good stable base, which we like with innovation on top of it. All of this growth as a whole doesn't really have any cannibalization of any significance. So it's going to be accretive growth. I think some really good launches. One of the reasons our EBITDA is down a little bit in the first half, especially, is we're putting a lot of money in multimedia, especially with the derm and the parasiticide. So we've taken a no regrets approach with these launches because they're so big and they're differentiated assets. So I think that's what's going to drive the higher end. I think the backdrop of just the environment we're in, we've calculated into our EBITDA guide the 10% China tariff. But I think just the backdrop of the environment.
But at this point in time, I think because we're not dependent on one innovation, but a basket of six, I think we've got a really good durable business that can offset some of this volatile environment.
So you spoke a bit about the cadence of innovation sales in 2025. But as we look a little bit beyond that, is it upward and to the right, or how should we expect the innovation sales to progress, say, over the next, say, 18, 24 months?
Yeah, we're not guiding long term here, but the guide of 4%-6% growth and that acceleration of growth, we like the quality of the growth. Most all the innovations, with the exception of one, Bovaer, the others are all accretive to margin as they scale up, and we've, of course, set up an infrastructure where we've got our SAPs and our stand-up and all of that together where we're much more efficient at Elanco than we were a couple of years ago, so we see growth and margin continuing to be robust. I mean, we've put our eyes on how do we continue to be a consistent mid-single digit company is an aspiration, not guiding to the long term right now, but the innovation that we have is going to play out as we globalize it for the next few years in a really nice way.
By the way, if there's any questions in the room, please just raise your hand and we'll get your questions addressed. And one more relative to kind of the complexion of growth, and that is the 2% price growth that we saw. Is that kind of the new normal for the intermediate to longer term, or is that a less sustainable kind of dynamic?
Yeah, I think the industry, I think for the last decade, has averaged about 2%, and we continue to, that's where we were, and we continue to see that. That's what we're guiding to and expect. Again, you can have some pushes and pulls. If you've got a lot of innovation in a portfolio, you can take a little more. Market usually responds to inflation as well if you get hit with high inflationary challenges. But yeah, I think we see a 2% price for industry and ourselves as well going forward.
Specifically, what are the factors that are kind of capping that?
I think innovation drives. You're usually going to get a little more in pet. You're going to get a lot more in portfolios where you have innovation. And then you're going to have challenges. Kind of the offset is really farm animal with generics. You have a tendency to be able to take less price as well as some of the international markets. And then pet retail also is one that's a competitive space. We're leaders in it, but you usually get more volume than you do price, typically.
With that, I'll turn it over to my colleague, Chris.
Great. Thank you, Steve. So thinking about innovation sales, as these brands ramp, a lot of these are in the pet health space. One of your competitors mentioned that 70% is a good way of thinking about the gross profit margin of those brands. So how do you see your innovation sales trending long term in terms of gross profit?
Yeah, I think as you look at the whole basket of six innovations, a couple in cattle, the rest in pets, we believe that that basket of innovation that we have, these six potential blockbusters, as in net, are going to be accretive to our gross margin. We're not guiding specifically, but they'll be accretive to where we are today. We have one exception, Bovaer, that we have a partnership with DSM. And once we move to their manufacturing, today we're buying from a third party. Once we move, which should be late this year, going into next year, then those margins will improve as well. So again, I think we're not given specific targets, but we see accretive gross margin and EBITDA as we go into 2026 and beyond, given that these products will continue to ramp and be a higher percentage of our total portfolio.
Maybe we could move to one of the key products that you recently had an FDA approval for, Zenrelia. You highlighted there are some differences between U.S. versus ex-U.S. labels. Could you dive into some of those details and what changes could we see to the U.S. label over the next two to three years?
Yeah, so we're the second major company to enter a $1.8 billion derm market. Number one reason people go to the vet, probably one of the more dissatisfied markets and a growing market. It's about 60% U.S., 40% international. Last year, it grew a good strong double-digit 15%-16%. And I would say that's both volume and price. And we continue to see a high percentage of dogs that are untreated or dissatisfied. So we see this market growing globally for some time into the future. I also start by saying we have one product we just went into the marketplace with, a JAK1 inhibitor that we see as a great product long term. We have another product that we're expecting an approval by the end of the year, an IL-31, that we say is differentiated, we believe, to the market incumbent.
We'll be bringing two assets to the market here. And then we have an IL-31 long-acting that came from our Kindred, another monoclonal antibody, and we've got a next generation of derm. I say a great market, second biggest, one of the fastest growing in animal health, and Elanco this decade is going to bring multiple assets into that marketplace. That's the first thing. If you look at Zenrelia, we've got approvals in the U.S., and then we've got approvals in Canada and Japan and Brazil right now, and expect Europe, U.K., and Australia the rest of this year. We have a label, a little bit of a restrictive label in the U.S. with a box, but I would say that we announced last week we've got about a third of the clinics that are using Zenrelia in the U.S.
That's really over the course of three, four months of the lowest season. If you can imagine, derm is definitely in the northern hemisphere, much more of a spring-summer usage. The interest in the adoption, we got about 6,000 clinics that have fully put it into their formulary or under their shelves, and a couple thousand more that are in a sampling program, which we find to be a nice way to convert. The biggest headline right now is efficacy. We have a big show going on right now in Vegas, second largest vet show, Western Vet, standing room only in some of the tech-to-tech. The head-to-head data that we showed in Europe against the market incumbent showing that we had strong efficacy and a differentiation there, that's playing out in real-world conditions. We have priced it 20% under the market leader.
I think those are the factors. We've just launched a multimedia campaign that we started in January, and that will start to activate pet owners as well as we head into this season.
So ex-U.S., you don't have a black box or any of the vaccine safety details?
Yeah, that's a good question, Chris. So yeah, we have no restrictive labels outside of the U.S. to date so far. And again, a nice market here. If you look at about a $600 million+ market, Zenrelia is going into those marketplaces. And actually, we've really increased the number of reps and our presence on the pet side. You see that with the AdTab launch that we've had that's been very successful in Europe. So we're very capable, very competitive, and a lot of markets. We're second or third largest pet sales force, so very capable and ready to go. So yep.
So you mentioned some sampling of Zenrelia in the vet clinic. What percent of prescriptions today are sampling versus paid drug, and what's the conversion rate once vets sample the product?
Yeah, so we've seen, so as I said, the 8,000 clinics, and we're adding more every week. More and more clinics are coming on, either whether full use or sampling use. And today, it's a little over 6,000 are fully adopted and using the product on the shelves. And then we've got about 2,000 that are sampling. And I would say two things are really working on the conversion side with the vet. One is the tech-to-tech discussions like we had last night at this major meeting, and we're doing those regionally and tech-to-tech dinners where you get a few vets that have a lot of experience or KOLs with them. And the number of vets willing to script is increasing month to month. Second is the sampling program. And again, we've got over a 60% return rate of use, and that's growing every month.
That's something that we see is just the efficacy of the drug is really playing out well with veterinarians.
I believe in the past, Elanco has set blockbuster potential for Zenrelia. What percent is ex-U.S. versus U.S., and could you achieve blockbuster status just based upon second-line usage?
Yeah, we don't see second-line as the place we're going to be. We continue to see more clinics continuing to use this product as their primary drug, and that's where we're positioning this. So that's one. And yes, we see it as a blockbuster with the size of market, the efficacy differentiation, and the portfolio play that we have, even with the synergy between Zenrelia and Credelio Quattro going into the spring. We see that being positive. The other factor that I think is going to come into play is there's three segments. The other two segments are acute and seasonal. And this really becomes less of a concern with the label on acute and seasonal use as well. So yes, we see a good solid blockbuster in Zenrelia as it is today.
And in terms of acute versus chronic versus seasonal, what do you think most of the growth, most of the untreated dogs, or is it a mix?
Yeah, we see it across the board now. Acute and seasonal have a tendency to be more during the season that we're about to enter in the northern hemisphere. But no, we're seeing it across the board. And we're seeing that in international markets as well. It's being used broad-based. It's more getting comfortable with the product, seeing the value of the product and differentiating. We also believe that now we activate with a very aggressive multimedia campaign, DTC campaign. Pet owners are going to respond probably more so to the value differentiation and the lower price than maybe a vet would as well.
Maybe we could move to Credelio Quattro.
Sure.
So kind of what initial feedback have you heard from the market? And when you're thinking about the decision-makers involved in what parasiticide a pet receives, kind of what are the key decision-makers? Is it the pet owner, the vet, the vet clinic, or some distributors?
Yeah, so just U.S. alone, vet market parasiticides, $4 billion market, $3 billion-$3.9 billion . It'll definitely break through the $4 billion market. So that market continues to grow. That's tick, flea, and the worm market in the U.S. And I would just say that inside of that market, the broad spectrum oral parasiticide market has been the fastest growing market, growing over 50%, and it's now almost a third of that market. So we are entering the fastest growing, largest animal health market segment that exists with Credelio Quattro. There's two other products in that market today. We're coming in with three dimensions of differentiation. One, and depending on the competitor, one is we have the first-month control of heartworm, and not all products have that. Second is the active ingredient in Credelio.
We've done some research and have third-party published data that actually shows a speed to kill on the tick side. And then lastly is just the broad spectrum being able to cover tapeworms. So I think those three dimensions of differentiation are getting an interest. Credelio Quattro, first product approved by the FDA to have four active ingredients, I think is the other. And we've got a lot of people that have used Interceptor Plus, probably more clinics than Credelio. And we're seeing that interest to say, Hey, if I've used Interceptor Plus, why not use Credelio Quattro that may be tagged with a competitive product? So a lot of market opportunity given the segment expansion.
In terms of winning share, is it at the vet clinic level? Is it at the patient level?
Yeah, it is typically parasiticides is a little less of a vet-involved category. We kind of say it's an uninvolved category. I mean, when you go to the clinic, derm, pain, surgery, vaccines tend to be. So we will turn up the DTC and activate a pet owner, even more so than derm, to activate that pet owner to come in and ask for it. And then once you get the script, then it tends to be the compliance and the online and the dropshipping becomes really important. So when you ask about who's the decision-maker, it's really multifaceted. We have activated and are using distribution. But our reps, we've now built a, I think, the second largest sales force in the U.S. So we've got the interface influence, but incentives all the way through from the vet as well to the pet owner.
Maybe we could move to Experior, hit blockbuster status in the year. What is the current market penetration of Experior, U.S., ex-U.S., and what are the key numbers investors should know as we think about modeling the peak sales potential and incremental growth of this product?
Yeah, Experior in the U.S. alone has hit $100 million. It's also marketed in confined cattle in the U.S. It's got an environmental claim, provides kind of a total value offering to cattle producers. We got a claim at the end of last year was only used in steers. We got a heifer claim, which is about 40% of all the cattle in the U.S. But that claim then allowed feed yards to be able to put it in broad-based feeding. So it's really a market that we've got a good high market share of, but there's a lot more market to grow between the U.S. and Canada now that you've got the heifer claim, which is about 40% more. We've not claimed how much share we have, but I would say that we've achieved $100 million. We see a lot more growth remaining.
I would say it's the farm animal leadership that we have. We also are seeing a portfolio play. Rumensin, over 50 years in the marketplace, grew last year in both price and volume and really returned to the highest levels we've seen in four to five years. Why? It's a portfolio play with Experior. So our whole cattle portfolio is growing. This past year, we grew the farm animal. We grew market share significantly, especially here in the U.S. We're now number one in beef, poultry, and pigs here in the U.S. So a nice continued growth on our farm animal business.
Great. And then moving back to the pipeline, could you maybe talk a little bit more about your short-acting IL-31 and how confident you are in having a differentiated profile? And will you have head-to-head data versus the competitor at launch?
Yeah, we won't get into great detail here, but we expect an approval of our IL-31 short-acting by the end of the year. We do believe it's differentiated. We haven't highlighted what that differentiation is. We say it's typically something around either the convenience or the efficacy or the administration, but we haven't highlighted that. We will when we get closer to the market. We haven't put any sales in our guidance for that product as we're saying it will be a USDA-approved product, and I'll just highlight. I'll maybe use this as a highlight to say our Kindred Bio acquisition a few years ago put us into monoclonal antibodies. We acquired a manufacturing site in Kansas with that as well. We're making out of that plant now the parvovirus monoclonal antibody. We're the second company and only second company in animal health to have monoclonal antibodies.
We have some increased CapEx this year as we're investing in that plant's capacity to bring monoclonal antibodies to animal health. We're looking forward to bringing the second one in this product. Haven't gotten into any of the details relative to the head-to-head and the package we'll come out with only for competitive reasons, but we're excited about this asset.
Great. And in terms of the long-acting, have you disclosed kind of how far behind that product is?
We have not, no.
Maybe moving on to the rest of the pipeline, kind of what areas do you think are the biggest unmet needs in animal health and kind of what products could Elanco bring to market there?
Yeah, so both pet and farm animal, I think we've got a robust pipeline. When Ellen came in, I mean, a few years ago, our focus was not only to deliver this late stage, these seven blockbusters, which we've got six of them through. We've also then continued to work on things that are really important, like some of the life cycle management, like the heifer clearance and the global expansion of these assets. But most importantly, is to create a consistent flow of high-impact innovation. And I would say at every phase, we've got key products. Our plan is to have as these innovations continue to grow and globalize, we will follow them with, I would say, an increased number of blockbusters that are differentiated in big markets. For us, derm continues to be a very big market. Right now, all sales are accretive.
Parasiticides continues to grow, and we'll continue to lean in there with our franchise. Pain is probably the next market. We've got next-generation pain as well, and we will leverage our monoclonal antibody platform. And then I think about the aging active pet that we want, and we're targeting some of those opportunistic areas as well that you get with the aging pet that you want to have a more active, longer, healthier life. Over on the farm animal side, as we take on more leadership, look, farm animal continues to be $25 billion of the $41 billion animal health market. So it continues to be a very big global market. We continue to target food safety. We're leaders in salmonella and poultry right now. We continue to focus on productivity, both done in the ways of non-traditional and traditional, and then this whole area of sustainability.
I want to really emphasize sustainability is not Scope 3. Sustainability is adding value to CPG companies that actually from farmer productivity. We've got a couple of key nice targets there. That's a market that we're leading in and candidly creating this market ourselves here at this stage.
Is that a sticky market? Is that a market you could maintain your first mover advantage in long-term?
Yeah, I think what's great about farm business is that it takes a while. Experior is a good example to get in. But once you get in these feeding programs, it becomes you look at a Rumensin and Experior, they become long, good, steady, pragmatic kind of ramps that really stay steady. And we've got a competitive advantage in the way we can offer boardrooms of protein companies' portfolios that can be wide offerings of their needs.
Jeff, can I follow up on your mention of pain products for pets?
Yeah.
So we've seen one company enter that market with a monoclonal antibody and has certainly struggled a bit. Do you attribute those struggles to just the market, vets, patients learning how to use the products and that it will ultimately be a big opportunity for that company as well as Elanco? Do you think the struggles there are molecule-specific? Is this an opportunity or a risk? I guess that's the question for you.
Yeah, I back up and say the first thing is the opportunity is pain awareness is at an all-time high. It looks a lot like derm five, six years ago. So more pet owners today, both feline and canine, are saying, Hey, I have an opportunity here to actually create a more active, healthier, longer-aging pet without pain. And so I would say the use is up, and that's positive. Our use and our pain categories are up. We've got a larger portfolio today, whether it's surgical pain or we have Galliprant which is a key product that's a take home. So I'd say one is the market's going to continue to grow. I think it's going to go past $1 billion here pretty soon and continue to be the next kind of fast-growing market.
I think, specific to you, I think to your question, I think different categories of products over time. I believe in our science as an industry. I believe in our pharmacovigilance , and I believe that our relationship with vets and being able to work on being able to serve pet owners and adapt and innovate the next generation or life cycle management. I'm confident in that. So I think it's an opportunity overall, and what excites me the most is the space itself. So yeah.
Maybe in the last few minutes we have here, what would you need to see in terms of business performance to reinstate midterm revenue and margin targets?
Yeah, I'm not giving guidance here, but I would say I think our history and we're set up right now as being a tremendous value proposition from our company to our customers and to investors. I mean, this growth is going to be durable. We've got nice durable growth as a base. We've got a basket of innovation. I think maybe one of the most misunderstood things about Elanco is we've got six blockbusters that are differentiated, that are mostly accretive to margin, that don't have cannibalization, all going into major markets. And we're investing significantly behind these launches with a large team. So we've been preparing for this for quite some time. I think that innovation is what's going to create the durability. Then Elanco got a consistent flow and a very strong pipeline.
I've never been more confident about the capabilities of our R&D organization, being able to globalize that innovation and have a consistent flow that's going to follow. I don't think we're going to have a gap in the innovation needed to keep the company growing. I'm not giving guidance on the top and bottom line, but I think we're set up very well to go. And I think, hey, we're leaders in farm animal. We're leaders in pet retail. And in pet vet, where we're not leaders, we're bringing the innovation. So I think we're set up well as we go into 2025 and beyond.
Jeff, you obviously have a 10-year plan, which you're not going to share with us, of course, but you know that 10-year plan very well. What do you know about 10 years from now about Elanco that you feel that we are missing? And maybe it's the point you just made, that the innovation here is just much stronger than we perceive, and that's going to be the dominant portion of Elanco in a decade. Or maybe it's something else. Maybe it's the geographic footprint. Who knows? Maybe it's new therapeutic categories. But what is it that you feel Elanco will be in a decade that we just don't see?
That's a great question. I think first, industry-wise, I think we have set up an independent company. It hasn't been easy. They can reach the world's animals, whether it's an SAP system or regulatory or a supply chain or set up to play against really three big trends. When you look at protein, pets, and now planet, we're opening up environmental health. It's not environmental, not ESG, but it's actually productivity on the farm that CPG companies want. So I think when I look at the three categories of animal health, we're leaders in two of them that are durable. And that is farm animal. It has good, strong trends, and we're in a good, strong leadership position there. Pet retail, there's still a third of pet owners around this world that don't go to vets, can't access them, or the convenience. They want to just go directly OTC.
And I think that channel is also going to converge with the vet clinics. So I think it's what we've established, what we've created with an independent company, with the Bayer acquisition and now the pipeline. But without question, have all those capabilities. A little innovation is all you need in every portfolio. You can take every one of our portfolios and say a little innovation makes the total portfolio grow. And what I see across that 10 years is whether it's life cycle management or a blockbuster, every portfolio can get stronger every couple of years. And that's what I think is going to create the durable growth.
Questions from the audience? Okay, we are out of time. So thank you so much for making the journey to be with us. And we look forward to watching Elanco over the next 10 years.
Okay, thank you.