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JPMorgan U.S. All Stars Conference

Sep 16, 2025

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

All right. Steve Tousa, Electrical Equipment, Multi-Industry Analyst here at JP Morgan. In case you don't know, we're very happy to move on with Emerson Electric . Probably maybe change that name at some point, maybe Emerson Automation or we'll think about that.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Could happen.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah, I'll think about that. President and CEO Lal Karsanbhai, as well as CFO Mike Baughman, thank you so much for being here. I have obviously a bunch of questions, but maybe I'll just hand it off to you for an intro and any kind of messaging around what you're seeing out there in your businesses macro-wise.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Yeah, thank you, Steve.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Great state of affairs.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Great to be here. Thanks for the invitation. Really have enjoyed the meetings today, and thank you everyone for attending our sessions. First of all, maybe I'll begin by just saying that I'm very optimistic about the future of our company. We've undergone a very significant transformation in our portfolio over the first four and a half years of my CEO-ship. We're now entering a different phase. We've completed that. We now have created a company that I wanted to be CEO of, a global automation company with a very differentiated technology stack serving the world's most essential industries. The growth opportunity for this company is very different from the Emerson of old in a framework of 47%. We've improved gross margins in the company by 1,000 basis points. We've increased EBITDA margins in the company by 700 basis points.

We have a company that generates phenomenal cash flow and is highly differentiated from a cash flow margin and ultimately getting over to the 100% cash measure as well. I feel really good about that. In terms of the environment, this has been a year characterized by geographies and verticals, some of strength that got stronger as the year went on and some of weakness that either stayed weak or got weaker as the year progressed. Most notably, on the strength side, the United States started strong, got stronger as the year progressed. Middle East and Africa, very strong, and India. Those three markets, those three geographies across a cross-section of verticals continue to be very strong. On the weak side, we planned a positive China. We end up with a negative China. Europe, we planned a positive Europe. We end up with a weak Europe.

Those markets are not the minimum size for Emerson and they certainly hurt us as we navigated the year. Right now, Steve, as we have a few days left in the fiscal year, thinking about the guide that we gave for the fourth quarter, on the orders, we got it 5 to 7% on orders. We will likely come in at the lower end of that guide in the fourth quarter. The reason is weakness in Europe progressed through August and into September. China continued to remain very weak. On sales, we guided in the quarter 5% to 6%. We are likely going to come in at the lower end of that guide. The reason being the book to bill that we expected in the quarter did not materialize and came in weaker, and we weren't able to convert to the higher end of the sales guide.

On earnings, we expect to be at the upper end of our guide because the execution in the company, despite the lower sales guide, lower end of the guide on sales, continues to be incredibly strong. That's how we're seeing it come in at this point in time with, as I said, 14 days to go. Of course, in November, we'll see where everything falls in.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Thanks for the color because most companies just say September is a big month and we'll talk to you in October.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

It is big, though.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

It is big.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

We have phenomenal, and Mike can speak to this, visibility in our businesses and financial processes. As you know, we do close the books of this company every month.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yep.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

We run processes every week of the month to understand where the quarter falls in.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Right?

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Absolutely. Okay. We can just end there and go get a cup of coffee or something. Let's just dig into the details. You mentioned the geographies. Maybe if you talk about the verticals and what you're seeing in those various geographies and what's just the incremental rate of change to get you to the lower range on sales and orders, what verticals?

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

The three verticals on the upside that continue to be strong for us are power. You certainly understand all of the dynamics around power, particularly in North America, China. That's one of the bright spots in China. I think you know the story there in terms of the ovation growth and the 40% orders that we've seen. Now that's a multi-year type of strength that we see going out as well. If you think about LNG, we continue to see strength in LNG driven by energy security and just generally energy needs. Strong in the U.S., strong in the Middle East. We'll all talk about the strength in those markets. Certainly, LNG is a big part of that. Then life sciences. Continue to see good strength in life sciences in the U.S., Europe, and one of the small bright spots there. That would be on the upside.

Factory automation continues to be kind of improving, but not yet strong. TNM recovering, as we've talked about as well, with 20% orders last quarter or 16% last quarter, expecting near 20% this quarter. That is still going to be around there, but perhaps not quite as high as we'll talk about.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

When you think about the weak spots, I guess some of those would be on the traditional process side. If power, LNG, life sciences are the good guys, factory automation improving, but maybe not to the extent, what are you seeing in more of the kind of core process industries, refining, upstream oil and gas, chemical, and acknowledging it's not as big of a part of your portfolio as it used to be?

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

Yeah, solid, though perhaps not as solid as we had expected, still positive.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Not getting worse per se.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

No, the one market there that remained was weak coming into the year and remained weak was the bulk chemicals, which really impact the U.S., Germany, and China. That's an overcapacity. Honestly, I don't foresee that to turn positive as we go into 2026. Automotive on the discrete side, very weak, impacts us both in the heritage discrete business at Emerson, but also in TNM. TNM was positive in automotive last quarter, but that's really an easy comparison basis. There really isn't enough activity in battery tests, which is overcapacitized, or in ADAS at this point. Beyond that, the refining business for us is an MRO business. There's no capital deployment that we see there. It's really a replacement business. Beyond that, semiconductors show some good signs of life. That's about it.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

European machine builders, any visibility into that channel getting better? I mean, I know those guys have been destocking for a couple of years and maybe that's over, but clearly no real uptick.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

No real uptick. You understand the bulk of what we sell is made to order.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yep.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

We have some, but not much that sits on shelves made to stock. Having said that, we see the OEM activity on machine makers relatively directly, and we have not seen strong acceleration in those markets. If you just think about consumer weakness in China that fueled a tremendous amount of machine building in Germany and Italy, those markets are really weak, and they continue to reflect into the machine making business.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

I know we don't use this term anymore, the KOB, but the MRO seems like it's probably in line, and this is more in the green field, really the green field and brown field side.

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

That's right.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay. Got it. Maybe just touch on, I guess the orders funnel last quarter was down a couple hundred million bucks, I think, because of the sustainability business. Have we kind of cleared out all that sustainability-related business that could be cleared out, or does the funnel continue to kind of just fade a little bit here as the bulk of the business that was expected to happen? I mean, it's really across the industrial economy. There's this pipeline that people have been talking about, and it's not really moving. Do we see that continue to fade, or is that at kind of more of a stable level?

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

No, as the quarter went on, I certainly continue to see erosion of sustainability projects at the customer level, particularly in the United States. Now, those projects that were in our funnel were relatively small in scale. These $200 million of projects that came off the funnel last quarter, there were over 50 projects that they comprised. They were relatively small. These are not large.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah, these aren't mega projects.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Mega projects, we continue to see erosion in the United States around sustainability and decarbonization. Europe is a little more stable, but certainly the U.S.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah, that makes sense with the, I guess, the political and tax environment we're in when it comes to that stuff. Just when we're on orders, will book to bill, will you build backlog, will book to bill stay above one or does backlog, you eat a little bit into backlog?

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

Typically goes down sub-one and above.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Typically, seasonally.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Yeah, seasonally.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Slightly, I'd say south of one, right about two for the fall of the year.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah, okay. When we think about the, I guess within TNM though, that sounds like it's more, I guess, in line. If semis continue to come back a little bit, Arrow remains probably pretty strong. Maybe just talk about TNM and how you see that advancing. The order rates are very strong because of easy comps. How do you see that advancing?

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Yeah, what was interesting at TNM, if you look historically at TNM recoveries in cycles, the portfolio business recovers first.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yep.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

That's comprised of over 30,000 customers in vast segments of the industrial complex around the world. That did recover first, both first sequential or quarter- over- quarter, then sequentially, followed by what has stayed strong essentially since over the last three years, which is aerospace and defense. Now a recovery in semiconductor. The mathematics on the automotive, that's the pure math. There isn't any substantive recovery there. We continue to see that accelerate as we've gone through the quarter. It was every market, every world area in the third quarter, and we expect that to accelerate as we go in the fourth.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Would that be the portfolio business or the total order?

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

The total orders.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

The portfolio is continuing to come along.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Yeah.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

That's a pretty good sign.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Very good. Very good sign.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

We're pretty excited to see what's going on in semiconductors and the overall TNM portfolio.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

What do you think is going, before we kind of like turn to the implications maybe beyond this year, what do you think is going on out there in the industrial economy? How are you guys talking about things in the boardroom? Decision making seems to be pretty slow. Obviously, all these uncertainties.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

One of the things that we focused on is what we're calling the age of America. I mean that very significantly, that there is an opportunity here of investment in the United States that is unprecedented. If you think about the factors that have been implemented and decisions made by the administration around energy policy, power, generation, life science, and semiconductor nearshoring, corporate tax policy, depreciation on investments, there's a whole collection of things that will drive investment in the United States. We believe because of population dimensions, just the number of people, that automation will play a main, main driving factor in those investments. We feel very well positioned there. We're also speaking about the position of the company in the Middle East. We've made significant investments in manufacturing in places like Saudi Arabia.

We continue to invest in India, which we continue to see as a pathway to $1 billion. In a world which is going to be very different, Steve, over the next decade in China. China, which we're in our 46th year of, grew on average high single, low double digits over 45 years for Emerson. I project that the next 10 years, possibly the time or shorter that I'm CEO, China will be a mid-single digit grower. We have to prepare for what that means for our China structure in terms of cost, how we're organized, but also what other geographies can supplement that growth.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Right. I may still be here in 10 years, so we'll have to come back and do this again at that point.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

All was wrong. It didn't grow.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

When we think about that outlook, your order rates are, I guess, decelerating a little bit. I know you guys have equated those order rates to what you think about next year. You guys have made some comments about these order rates supporting that trend line, 4%- 7% next year. Does what you're seeing at the end of the year color the picture at all as far as growth for 2026? Is there a little more caution around that growth?

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

No, to be honest with you, I think process, however, will come out in the mid-single digits still as we finish the year.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Discrete will accelerate. We've talked about TNM here. I believe, and we'll get to this in November, I'm not going to guide 2026 now, but it will guide inside of that framework.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Inside of the four to seven framework.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Yeah.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay. Okay. One last one for you. You mentioned all these tailwinds. How are you guys thinking about your investments? Are you looking at, you've obviously got the positives, but then you've got the negatives of tariffs and trying to manage that. It seems like corporate America's uncertainty is currently outweighing all these positive factors. How are you guys thinking about that in your boardroom?

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

Yeah, we will continue to spend where we need capacity. We usually have a handful of big projects every year that accommodate capacity that we need, and we'll continue with those. We've got the confidence to do that, and the capital intensity of the business, as you know, is 2.5%.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Right.

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

We expect to continue to spend capital expenditures at sort of that level. We will have sufficient cash flows to continue to spend on R&D at that 8% level, and we'll continue to do that and see good opportunities there. We are continuing to invest.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

You're not necessarily onshoring, so to speak, whatever kind of minimal capacity needs you have. You know you're not onshoring.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

No, look, we're very regionalized as a manufacturer and a supply chain organization. America for the Americas, Europe for Europe, China for China, India for the rest of Asia, and the Middle East and Africa. We feel really good about that structure that really has taken us 20 years to build and was advantageous to us through the pandemic, of course, because we were not putting relevant material on boats or airplanes. It has become really advantageous to us, as you've seen in our tariff exposure in this period of time. We feel good about that structure. As long as there's some semblance of a North America trade agreement that is inclusive of Mexico, which in our products are generally, as you've seen, comply with USMCA, then we're okay.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Right. Until he decides to pull out a few components and tell everybody that those are not anymore, I mean, it's day to day.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

We'll manage accordingly.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

On the one last one on kind of the growth outlook for the core business outside of software, these growth markets, power, LNG, life sciences, and then aero you can throw in there, I guess, as well. Are these kind of the pillars that you look at for the next three to four years? The others are just really much more of a cyclical element as opposed to these that are really sustained multi-year above average growth.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

I would add, I would certainly suggest LNG tied to energy security and affordability. Certainly life sciences, whether that's new drugs, GLP-1 investments, biologics, personalized medicine, or nearshoring or reshoring of life sciences. Certainly power, and that's both the generating and the transmission distribution. It is a very large swath of market investment, which represents 10% of our sales. On the discrete side, I think you're right. I think aerospace is a big deal.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

I think that's going to continue to drive growth. Semiconductor will be in a very important period of time as well. I suggest those guys.

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

You've got a stage of cycle power is probably early, life sciences, LNG, mid, but still has legs.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah.

Now the power business here is underappreciated for sure. It's been always a strength and it's coming back really strong, obviously. Moving over to Aspen and the strategy there, maybe just talk about how you look at that business. Think about, I guess, the performance next year. There's going to be maybe a little bit of a disconnect between ACV and revenue and earnings. Maybe just talk through that a little bit because I think there's still a bit of a lack of visibility for people on how that's trending. We'll talk about the strategy there.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Sure. No, look, I feel really good. Really good execution this year, and we'll continue as we go forward to share with you that visibility through the ACV numbers, which is the best, most credible way that we can put a performance of a software business in front of our investors. We'll manage through next year's guide when we talk in November as we look at ACV to revenue, what the impacts there are. Certainly feel really good about a very strong asset there.

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

Absolutely. The ACV growth, as you know, has been high single digits there. There is the disconnect, Steve, between the GAAP revenue and the ACV at times. It's $1.2 billion of the total. It's not quite as big within the $18 billion in total, but certainly it was a good year for us.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Yeah, this year was very good.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Maybe talk about Aspen as part of your boundless automation initiative, virtual DCS.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Yeah.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Maybe in a little bit of dumbed-down terms to help explain it, this is a key part that I think people need to probably pay more attention to as far as your differentiation.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Yeah, and I think the best way to think about it is many companies, inclusive of ours, but many companies, many of our customers have undergone or tried to undergo digital transformation journeys over the last decade or so. Most of those have failed. The reason they've failed is because the data hasn't been accessible across the enterprise. Data exists, most of it's not used, but it's typically siloed and organized by department. To truly take advantage of a digital transformation journey that will optimize a facility, increase safety, productivity, and profitability, you have to first start by having all your data in one place and all your data in the same language. Creating that unified data fabric is at the core of the vision of Emerson AspenTech. The large job that we won with Total is exactly that.

Before we can start optimizing performance of an individual plant, I think it's for the enterprise value important to have that contextualized data in one place. Secondly, you have to ensure that you have the latest zero trust cybersecurity elements around the processes. That's an element that we're driving into the construct of the data with our innovation software. Thirdly, it's the ability to take what has been a hardware-centric DCS control system and turn it into a software-enabled hardware-agnostic system. Can you run I/O out of a server? Do you need controller boxes? The processing capabilities of blade servers versus controller boxes, not only is it significantly lower cost, but higher productivity and processing speed. That's the overall vision. That's what we can do with AspenTech and Emerson. We're very excited.

We've been rolling out some of these products already, the edge device, contextualized some of the data already, and of course the data fabric within Mation.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

What industries do you expect this to penetrate first? We're obviously, just to be clear, in inning ring game.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Yeah, we're warming up at the batting cage, I think, in that analogy. Total is a leader. What they did is there's a visionary in that company, a digital officer. She has a vision for the enterprise. She convinced the CEO, and the CEO convinced that Emerson was the best positioned company to deliver on that promise. Everybody's watching our implementation at Total. It's very important, obviously for us, but for the industry as a whole, because it's a game changer. We continue to have very high-level conversations with other customers across multiple industries, the traditional chemicals, petrochemicals, life sciences. We believe there are opportunities within power generation industries as well.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah, Siemens has been talking about this for a couple of years, and they did an implementation with Audi.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Yes.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

It is still very, customers are risk-averse. They, you know, it takes a little while for this stuff to catch on.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

One of the things that we stressed with Total is that we're completely agnostic to the control system. If you walk into Total, and I'm going to make up a number, it's not correct, but take it as directionally correct. Across their facilities, they may have 100 distributed control systems. Of the 100, less than 20 are Delta V's. The other 80 are everybody else's. That's okay. It doesn't really matter, because what we're going to do is we're not going to ask them to replace any of those. If you take that approach, it's going to create huge barriers to investment and cost. We're going to layer the fabric right on top, utilizing investments that have been made over time, whether that's your PI historians or your DCSs, and then use that data to drive the optimization software that sits on top of it in their enterprise-wide clouds.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Moving on to margins, clearly from the commentary today, the margins are still, I would assume the EPS at the high end of the range is a segment margin, a bit of segment margin upside, not like below the line, like tax or something like that. Just check the box on that question.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

There's a mix, but yes, segments are performing very well.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Yeah.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay. Any implications from the Section 232 component tariffs that were announced in August? I mean, it's probably too late in the quarter, but maybe for next year and any moving parts there?

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

Nothing we see that's significant there.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay. The incremental margin has been fantastic the last two years. I think your current guidance is 70%.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

70?

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah, something like that. It's so high, I can't even really contextualize it. What is the normal incremental margin that we should think about going forward? Your gross margins are fantastic, mid-50% ish, something in that range.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

52-ish?

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

I think about incrementals as gross margin minus some investment. Maybe just what is the normalized incremental we should think about? I don't think it's 70%, but.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

No, no.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Still pretty promising number.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

It's been a phenomenal four years for us in terms of the margin. What's interesting, and I'll answer your question more directly, what's interesting, Steve, is if you look at the 1,000 basis point improvement in GPs, 600 basis points came from the M&A activity.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Right.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

400 basis points came from the legacy Emerson GP improvements. If you look at the 700 basis points of EBITDA improvement, 600 of those came from legacy Emerson EBITDA improvement. The work that we do every day to drive cost reductions, to drive SG&A leverage, balancing the innovation investments and other things we have to do in the company, 100 of it came from the M&A.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

What's the difference between how you were operating or the former management team was operating before and what you're doing now? Is that a little more price, being a little bit tighter on the costs? I mean, price has definitely been a factor for everybody.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Yes.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

I remember.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

We were always price positive in the automation business. It was our HVACR business that had fluctuations in price. I will say that Emerson, you could go back 40 years at this company, has managed costs incredibly well.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Right.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Argument. The challenge for Emerson Electric was the lack of growth.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Right.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

That's what you would try addressing with a portfolio.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Right.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

The cost management has always been a unique piece of how this company has grown.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah, because the margins have always been pretty high.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Absolutely, absolutely. Now, to answer your question more directly, I think an expectation somewhere around the 40% is a right expectation on incrementals.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay, going forward, that would include obviously Aspen and whatever growth you're getting there. That's an all-in segment incremental.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Correct. Look, Steve, we have a capital markets day in November, which we've announced. We'll certainly come in and lay out that framework, growth, incrementals, expectations on earnings, etc . That's the number you'll be thinking about.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Can we think about in the near term a more normal year, or is there still an unusual amount of tailwinds into next year from a segment margin perspective?

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

I think next year you should be thinking about more of a normal year.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay. How do you, this price discussion, what is price in software and control? I mean, I get what price is in intelligent devices and TNM, but in software and control, like what is price?

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

Escalations.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay.

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

As you sign a contract, there's generally pricing escalations. That would be how we think about price in that business.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

If it's a two, three, four, or five-year contract, those escalations are built in by year.

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

That's right.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Right. As far as the mix next year, I would assume that with the brownfield and greenfield stuff maybe not growing quite as fast, that mix impact should be less of an issue than perhaps if it was inflecting off of the bottom.

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

Should be still in that for MRO business.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah.

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

Yeah, it'll still be in the 60s, in the low 60s.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Yeah.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

As far as the different businesses and the degree of margin opportunity, when you look at TNM versus software and control versus ID, where do you see the most opportunity? Is it going to be pretty broad based across the portfolio?

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

I think the right way to think about it is we did a lot of work at TNM on profitability. We did $200 million of cost takeout, which has largely been executed by the team. That positions the company now with, we'll come out and guide the top line sales in November, but assuming a mid-single digit to high single digit sales growth to leverage pretty strongly.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Right.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

We stay committed to the 31% EBITDA margins that we talked about for test and measurement, and I think we'll be well on our way to get there. Those are very important.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

The 31 is kind of the target.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Correct.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

For what year was that targeted?

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

2028.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

2028. Okay. Got it. That's obviously going to be a positive lever. Any mixed dynamics within ID that we have to keep in mind by vertical, whether it's discrete or.

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

Not really.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Not really.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Not really.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Just by sub-vertical.

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

Yeah.

There is still opportunity in both the control systems and software business, as well as the intelligent devices, to continue to expand margins.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

One of the things to think through is in the softwarization, the virtualization of the DCS, you're turning a company that is hardware-centric with embedded software into a software company without hardware. If you just think about that flip for DeltaV innovation, that's a huge amount over time of profitability and price and everything else that gets unlocked there.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Right. You guys still make a decent amount on, I mean, your hardware, for lack of a better term. Your field devices are, you know, great barrier to entry, phenomenal pricing power. That's a really good business. Software, obviously.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

You got it.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Higher margin.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

That commitment around investment has been across all the differentiating elements of the tech stack, has been important and will continue to be important.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Anything below the line heading into 2026 that's just mechanical that we have to keep in mind, whether it's tax rate or stock comp or any of these other items?

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

Pretty consistent. Interest will be a little bit higher.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yes.

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

Because of the Aspen full-year impact, other than that, pretty consistent.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Aspen synergies, generally, what do we keep track of?

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

Hundred million.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

I feel really good about the execution there by the team. We'll tell you about it in November.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay. I'll wait for November to follow up on that.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

You get another shot at me in a couple of weeks.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah, yeah, that'll be fun. Any questions from the audience on fundamentals, sales, segment margins before we kind of get onto the strategic stuff? No? Okay. One question over two sessions. It's fine.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Doesn't mean they don't like you.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

It's not about me. Never about me. Just kidding. Cash conversion, you guys talked about getting to 100%.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Yep.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

What's the pathway to get there, and what's maybe the timing on the 100% conversion?

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Yeah, so.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Non-fundamental headwinds recently.

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

We'll be getting closer next year. We'll end this year in the low 90s. That'll move up to the mid 90s or higher next year, we think. The more important metric for us is free cash flow margin, around 18% this year with some headwinds from the deal costs. We will continue to expand that as well. The free cash flow conversion, we think, is great. We'll be working that, continue to work the balance sheet for working capital opportunities and believe that there's some improvement coming there. The free cash flow margin is the one I like, as we've talked about, because it's just free cash flow, two GAAP numbers divided into revenue, another GAAP number, so there's nothing adjusted about it.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Right.

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

We feel good about where we sit, top quartile with that metric.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

When you think about this year, $3.2 million of free cash flow with $200 million of transaction costs in there, fees that don't repeat.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

In the forward state, that unlocks a lot of opportunity here from a free cash flow.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Is that the main lever, or are there other things that can be a little less of a drag? It's a much more simplified P&L now because you're not to adjust out Aspen.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Exactly.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Anything else other than the $200 million of transaction costs in the?

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

We're always working the balance sheet for more efficiencies and the working capital where the opportunities are. Nothing unusual, we'll just continue to work that, and yeah, phenomenal earnings growth that will supplement that.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

On capital allocation, I think you guys would have probably liked to have been at a bit of a lower level of leverage at this stage, given safety and productivity. What's the, first of all, will you reevaluate safety and productivity at some point in time, or is that now in the portfolio and you know, we kind of go from here?

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

No, we got to go from here. We did a lot of work, Steve, and we need stability in this portfolio. There's a role that safety and productivity will play in terms of funding a lot of what we need to do. We're not going to starve that business, certainly not. It's a good business, a North America business predominantly, with a good European base. We wanted to, when we came out in the second quarter and concluded the review, be very affirmative that this is the company that we're going to run. For our investors, after a large period of time, a significant period of time where it's been disruptive from a portfolio perspective, you can now understand what you're investing in when you own a share of Emerson. In terms of capital deployment, look, it's been four years of investment in M&A to reshape the company.

The future, the next 3+ years are going to be about returning cash to shareholders. We have a number of levers there. Of course, we have a phenomenal track record on dividend, and there's levers we can pull there. We have share repurchase as well that we can look at. There'll be bolt-on opportunities, but we'll continue to invest in our business. As Mike talked about, it's not a capital-intensive business between 2%, 2.5%. We'll continue to invest in innovation in our company, which we've taken from 2% to 8% of revenue in the last four years. Some of that inorganically, some of that organically in our businesses. No one's going to be cash starved, but the ample cash, as we'll talk about in November, to bring back to the shareholders in this next phase.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Share repo, real focus, dividends obviously growing in line with earnings-ish.

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

Talk about what dimension we want to think about the dividend.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

How do you define a bolt-on? I think, you know, Eden last week made it very clear that, you know, a bolt-on five years ago when they were a much smaller company, it's very different. They're now $160 billion market cap. A bolt-on is now, you know, upwards of $7 billion. How do you guys look at what is kind of the threat for?

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

I haven't changed that. It's a $1 billion purchase price already.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay. Okay.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

I think it's truly bolt-on.

Truly bolt-on.

Yeah, that's the kind of M&A we're talking about over the next three years or so.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Is there a part of the portfolio, whether it's software, test and measurement, I'm sure, higher on the list? Is there a part of the portfolio that's higher on the list for bolt-ons than others?

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

The last two we did, we did one in our sensing business, Flexim, a German company, phenomenal flow business. We did one in our discrete business, a FOG, electrical linear motion company based in Switzerland. We'll continue to look for opportunities to bring new technology, differentiated technology, accretive to growth, and where we have margin improvement opportunities. TNM certainly is a focus. Tough to find bolt-on software companies, sub $1 billion of purchase price.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Right.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

We look, but we don't see gaps in the software portfolio at this point in time that we can do organically.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Just maybe second to last or third to last, AI. How are you applying AI? I mean, we all think about AI and data centers as a power, as a driver of demand. How are you applying it in your business internally? What are some of the early interesting applications that you're seeing progress in and around?

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

Yeah, internally, the AI generally, the landscape is changing. We've been using AI, simple things like chatbots for a long time. We see opportunities around customer service, for sure. Any sort of transaction processing we're taking a hard look at. Finance areas are certainly ripe for some implementation of various agentic AI. Then around coding, there are plenty of opportunities as well. All of the DCS work that gets done, AI tools there to advance and gain productivity all represent good opportunities for us as we move forward.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

As far as the offerings within the products, when we were in Austin last year, I thought it was super interesting how configuring a test and measurement test was always a, I don't know, like 50-hour process, and AI can make that two hours or something like that. Any good examples of stuff that's embedded in your products now that's making a difference?

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Three very important releases in the last quarter. One is exactly what you saw in Austin, Nigel, now in the market. That is the AI agent within LabVIEW. It's sold as an incremental subscription within the LabVIEW suite. It writes that first test procedure based on documentation that is fed into the agent. Technical specs, some circuits, dimensions, it'll give you the first one.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

That makes a ton of sense.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

It takes hours, hours out of the work of an engineer. Very interesting. We've also introduced an AI agent within AspenTech, AVA, and an AI agent around Ovation. All three of those are in the marketplace today. I just want to go back to one thing that Mike said, and I've challenged the organization, is that we played a game for many years of taking high-cost jobs to best-cost locations. The next challenge for us is to take best-cost jobs to machines. The challenge I've given the organization, Steve, is if it's transactional and repetitive, it should not be done by a human. If you just think of that in terms, it means that in every function of a daily life of a corporation, there are such opportunities where the work that is at hand is transactional and repetitive. That's the path we're on.

It's a long journey to get there, but we have work underway in every single one of the functions to develop the AI agents that we need to do that.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Does that result ultimately in a decline in employment, or it's just stable employment where you're just hiring less people and letting more people, you know, attrit? I mean, from a macro, not, you know, from a CEO's perspective, how do you think about it?

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

The way I think about it is a decline in employment for those specific types of tasks.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Right, but for the total company.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

For the total company, probably not. You're probably going to invest in differentiating skill sets. Can I hire more engineers now and increase my innovation?

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Right.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

That's certainly a capacity that it brings.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Right.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

All of that ultimately will be reflected in the incrementals that we deliver to the marketplace.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Pull that productivity up.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

The 40%.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

The 40%.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

The 70%.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

The 40%.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Any other questions from the audience on strategy, capital allocation, AI? Okay. I guess I'll go with a real basic one here to finish up. Since you've taken the seat, there's been a ton that's gone on, not only for Emerson, but also, you know, politically and globally. What is, as a CEO, what has maybe surprised you the most? What was maybe your biggest challenge that you didn't foresee that you learned something from? Where is your, how have you matured as a CEO?

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

That's a great question. You know.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

That's what I do.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

I came into the job with a deep appreciation of the requirement to have the best people around me. I was very intentional early on. As you know, Steve, I moved very quickly to make organizational changes in the company because I knew that to perform at our best, to do the difficult things that we did, to envision them and to execute them, I needed the best people. You know, the Frank , then Mike , the Colleens , the right people in the right jobs to transform the company. That was number one. That hasn't changed. Number two, I'm not sure my predecessors had as much to deal with the outside noise. Yes, political relationships were important. Geopolitical impacts to the business are always important.

The number of opportunities that now exist for CEOs to comment to their internal populations about external activities, it's a little bit of a quicksand. You have to be very careful how you communicate those. That's been a learning lesson for me. There is a natural curiosity in the population of our company. What does Lal think about it? What is Lal's response to some executive order? I have to tread very carefully in how I respond. I work under the assumption, and I have great advice in our company and from our board that, look, what I write internally is an external document very quickly. We have to be very conscientious of that. We also have to be responsive and continue to drive engagement in the company. It's a fine line to traverse given all that noise that's out there.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Would you guys, again, this is very topical, but would you welcome a half-year reporting versus quarterly reporting?

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

What was the emoji that Colleen put on that when I sent her the story yesterday? It was kind of like a look.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

I think it would make conference season a lot longer, but obviously we have no order.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

I think it's important to comment towards, as a public company, on performance. It just seems to me like six months is a long time. Just think about what's happened in this year or any given year.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Right, from February to June.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Think about Liberation Day just happened in the middle of that. That's a long time to not talk to investors about your financial performance.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

You would all issue something and everybody would ask about it. You would be running around during the quarter anyway trying to explain stuff that you're worried about, the disclosure around all that. It's, I don't know.

Mike Baughman
CFO, Emerson Electric

Thirds would be nice.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Thirds? Yeah, we can try that.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Trimesters.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Trimesters.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

We're kind of used to the quarter thing.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

I just passed my 100th quarter at JP Morgan.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Oh, congrats.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah, it's not that big of a deal. It's actually kind of pathetic that I'm still doing this after 25 years.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

You do a fine job.

Steve Tousa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah, okay. Great question, a fine job. You know when a CEO says stuff like that, it's not a good question. He's just patronizing. Anyway, that's all I have. Thanks a lot for taking the time and thanks everybody for joining us today.

Lal Karsanbhai
President and CEO, Emerson Electric

Thank you, Steve. Thanks.

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