Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Element Solutions Q3 2021 financial results conference call. Later, there will be an opportunity to ask questions during the question and answer session, and you may register to ask a question at any time by pressing the star and one on your touch-tone phone. I will now turn the call over to Varun Gokarn, Senior Director of Strategy and Finance. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for participating in our third quarter 2021 earnings conference call. Joining me are Executive Chairman Sir Martin Franklin, CEO Ben Gliklich, and CFO Carey Dorman. In accordance with Regulation FD, or fair disclosure, we are webcasting this conference call. Any redistribution, retransmission, or rebroadcast of this call in any form without the express written consent of Element Solutions is strictly prohibited.
During today's call, we will make certain forward-looking statements that reflect our current views about the company's future performance, financial results, and dividend policy. These statements are based on assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our earnings release, supplemental slides, and most recent SEC filings for a discussion of material risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations and predictions.
These materials can be found on the company's website in the Investors section under News & Events. Today's materials also include financial information that has not been prepared in accordance with US GAAP. Please refer to the earnings release and supplemental slides for definitions and reconciliations for these Non-GAAP measures to comparable GAAP financial measures. It is now my pleasure to introduce Ben Gliklich, CEO of Element Solutions.
Thank you, Varun, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining. Despite a problematic supply chain environment and turbulence in the automotive market, our business is thriving. We delivered net sales that were a record for Element Solutions, with solid incremental margins and strong free cash flow this quarter, while faced with both logistics and supply chain disorder that drove increased costs and impacted demand.
Our people are embodying our culture. They're stepping up to challenges and showing commitment to our company and our customers. This is helping to ensure reliability of service and to mitigate raw material sourcing shortages in our own supply chain.
At the same time, our organization continues to focus on and deliver against strategic growth priorities, such as power electronics for electric vehicles, new customer wins from our core electronic and industrial markets, and sustainability solutions.
Underlying demand in our markets remains healthy, and while supply chain dynamics will continue to create volatility over the next several months, we are more excited than we have ever been about the long-term prospects for this company.
We closed our acquisition of Coventya on September first and are off to a running start with our integration work streams. The benefits of this combination in terms of growth opportunities and cost savings are becoming increasingly tangible just two months after closing.
While we still have significant work to do to realize the value from this combination and carry forward our current momentum through year-end, we're energized by the way these teams are working together. Our increased product breadth and expanded set of commercial relationships are already unlocking incremental opportunities for us.
The electronics industry continued to grow in the third quarter, bolstered by expansion in communications infrastructure, consumer electronics, and automotive electronics. Our Electronics segment posted monthly sales records this quarter, reflecting robust underlying demand and, more importantly, strong commercial execution by our strategic sales and technical service teams.
Customer engagement remains strong, and customer investment in new capacity continues. Our Industrial business was impacted by automotive supply chain constraints, but grew year-over-year as we lapped a quarter that still bore a significant impact from facility closures due to COVID. We also benefited from strong demand in construction and other industrial end markets.
The surge in economic activity year-to-date continues to challenge a capacity-constrained global supply chain and logistics network. Demand for logistics is far outweighing supply across nearly all transportation modes and regions, exacerbated by port labor bottlenecks and COVID-related worker shortages.
Although our team has navigated the effect of these factors well, when combined with negative mix impacts, they weighed on gross profit margins relative to the first half of the year. Inclusive of metals, we saw a raw material cost basket increase about 4% sequentially, while freight costs have continued to increase by $several million a quarter from their run rate exiting 2020.
We've actioned price increases these past several quarters to reflect rising costs, but we have not yet fully offset raw material inflation through price action. Nonetheless, while costs are putting margins under pressure, our adjusted EBITDA margins this quarter were flat year-over-year and improved nearly a point on a metals-adjusted basis. This period of inflation may persist, but we continue to take actions to retain our strong margins profile.
Given raw material scarcity and logistics difficulty, we have built and retained safety stocks and inventory to help us meet customer demand given ongoing supply chain shortages. While this is impacting our cash flow conversion, we believe that that impact is transitory.
The fundamental requirements for working capital in this business are unchanged, and we expect this buildup to release in the future when supply chains stabilize. On slide three, you can see a summary of our third quarter financial results. We grew the top line 13% organically year-over-year and grew adjusted EBITDA by 29% on a reported basis.
In constant currency terms, third quarter adjusted EBITDA grew 25% and adjusted EBITDA margins were roughly flat to the same quarter in 2020. While the first few weeks of the quarter benefited from lapping the global manufacturing shutdowns that accompanied COVID-19 in 2020, underlying growth also continued to compare favorably against pre-pandemic levels.
Notably, relative to comparable third quarter 2019 figures, we grew net sales 11% organically and adjusted EBITDA 14%. Operating leverage on higher volumes offset the headwinds from increased metal prices, higher logistics costs, and a return to more normalized OpEx levels as we continue to exit from crisis period cost containment measures of 2020 and early 2021. Adjusted EBITDA margins were roughly flat year-over-year, and our OpEx as a percent of net sales was lower versus the third quarter of 2020.
We expect a modest sequential increase in OpEx in the fourth quarter as countries continue to reopen. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 26% when excluding the impact of the $111 million of pass-through metal sales in our Assembly Solutions business. While pass-through metals create volatility in our reported margins, year-to-date incremental margins, excluding this impact, have been steadily in line with our long-term targets.
Our third quarter is a testament to the power of persistence and productive collaboration. Our customers are happy to have us back visiting in person. Technology roadmap conversations have accelerated.
Many of our offices have reopened, unleashing significant collaborative energy. We remain deeply grateful to our colleagues who have remained focused on supporting our company and our customers. Carey will now take you through our third quarter performance in more detail. Carey?
Thanks, Ben. Good morning, everyone. Starting on slide four, we review the key drivers of organic sales growth in Q3 across our verticals. The electronic segment grew net sales by 11% organically in the quarter, with all three verticals again growing in the double digits. Circuitry Solutions grew 14% organically, driven by persisting strength in high-end electronics and memory disk markets.
The more typical 3Q seasonal uplift in demand returned due in part to new higher-end mobile launches. We did, however, see some softness in a few high-end margin product areas linked to delays in production schedules. This is delayed, not lost business. Our Semiconductor Solutions business grew 12% organically, driven by strong volume increases across communication and automotive end markets.
Sales value for wafer plating and advanced packaging solutions were also driven by inflation in precious metal prices, which we generally pass on to our customers. Assembly grew 10% organically. Demand here came from continued strength in the broader electronic markets and growth in our power electronics products, which mainly serve the electric vehicle supply chain.
Our Asian business, where most of our sales are generated in this vertical, was stronger than Europe and the Americas. While we continue to improve the margin mix within our assembly portfolio, the impact of increased pass-through tin prices muted the otherwise strong margin uplift we would have seen during the quarter. Constant currency adjusted EBITDA margins in the electronic segment decreased only 60 basis points despite the impact of these metal prices.
This result was driven by volume-based operating leverage and positive product mix, which helped largely offset raw material price inflation, net of the pricing actions we've taken, and the return towards more normal operating expense levels.
The Industrial and Specialty segment had an even stronger quarter, growing net sales by 15% organically, driven by a strong macroeconomic environment and the lapping in the beginning of the quarter of widespread production shutdowns in 2020. Graphics Solutions grew organic sales by 19% due to improving conditions in CPG markets as companies are investing in new package designs, products, and promotions.
We saw volume increases from existing customers and strong commercial execution driving new wins across several geographies. Industrial Solutions grew Q3 net sales 17% organically, seeing year-over-year strength in construction and general industrial end markets, but sequential softness in automotive demand.
In the first half of 2021, this business remained relatively insulated from the demand impacts of supply chain disruptions. However, we now believe the magnitude of the recent production rate decline due to material shortages has our customers preparing for a more protracted slowdown. We continue to expect that automotive demand will largely be deferred versus being lost altogether.
Exceptionally low inventories and strong consumer demand suggest a potentially strong pipeline of industrial business next year and beyond. Offshore Solutions net sales declined 9% organically in the quarter, down $1 million, both sequentially and year-over-year. While energy prices have trended higher and commentary from E&P companies is optimistic, investment in drilling and production activity has yet to materially pick up.
Constant currency adjusted EBITDA margins in the I&S segment increased approximately 30 basis points in the quarter as operating leverage and higher volumes and pricing actions offset negative mix impacts from lower automotive demand and raw material inflation.
We saw a modest increase in SG&A, driven by mid-year merit increases, a pickup in customer-related travel, and the inclusion of one month of Coventya results in the quarter as well. Turning to slide 5. We generated $81 million of free cash flow in the quarter and over $175 million in the year-to-date period.
Uses of cash this quarter included our semiannual bond payment, several strategic growth CapEx projects, and additional working capital driven by strong net sales growth and our investment in safety inventory.
We now expect our inventory safety stocks to remain elevated into 2022, but believe these levels should normalize over time. On a full year 2021 basis, we expect free cash flow of at least $265 million, with the reduction from prior expectations driven primarily by working capital.
We increased our cash interest expectation modestly to reflect the add-on to our term loans, which funded a portion of the Coventya acquisition. We also increased our CapEx expectations to reflect the exciting investments we are making behind capacity to support power electronics and our other business growth.
Our markets are expanding, and we are excited to have organic capital allocation opportunities that meet our hurdle rates and position the business for continued success. Our balance sheet remains healthy in Q3.
Net leverage at quarter end was 3.1 x on a trailing twelve-month basis, reflecting the add-on term loan for the financing of the Coventya acquisition. However, this reflects the contribution of only one month of Coventya earnings. On a trailing twelve-month basis, including a full year contribution of Coventya, our net debt ratio would have been 2.9 x at quarter end.
We expect to be under 3x on a reported basis by the end of the year. Our consistent cash flow generation and leverage well inside our 3.5 x targeted ceiling provide us with meaningful capacity to continue to prudently deploy capital. With that, I will turn things back over to Ben. Ben?
Thank you, Carey. Turning to our outlook for the balance of 2021, our updated guidance is on slide 6. Our markets remain generally healthy and our teams are executing well against our strategies to capture value beyond market growth. Inclusive of a full quarter of Coventya results, we expect fourth quarter 2021 adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $118 million, with a contribution from Coventya of approximately $8 million.
Electronics demand remains strong. The weak auto market will have a negative impact on our industrial segment relative to previous expectations, while typical seasonality is responsible for the balance of the sequential decline. As you know, our fourth quarter last year benefited from the robust recovery from COVID shutdowns and later than typical new handset platform launches, so the year-over-year comparison is more challenging.
We're updating our full year 2021 adjusted EBITDA expectation to a range of $515 million-$525 million, inclusive of four months of Coventya results. This equates to roughly $505 million-$515 million excluding Coventya. Notably, we expect to deliver results within our previously stated guidance range for the full year of 2021, despite an incrementally worse automotive backdrop and less favorable FX environment.
We continue to expect full year adjusted earnings per share to exceed $1.35, which is approximately 40% growth year-over-year. In the context of our strong earnings growth and our expectation for continued growth from here, we expect to increase our dividend again this quarter, the second time we will have done so in calendar year 2021.
We believe 2022 is shaping up to be a year of robust growth. Given the dynamic environment, it's early to provide guidance, but the overall outlook is positive. If we'd owned Coventya for the full year in 2021, we would have expected 2021 adjusted EBITDA, taking into account the synergies we expect to realize during this first year, to be closer to $560 million.
We expect organic growth off of this base next year, given the secular trends in our electronics business, an expected cyclical recovery in our industrial business, and our proven ability to outgrow both markets through strong execution. We continue to have high conviction around the mega trends powering our end markets and a demonstrated ability to invest prudently behind them.
To wrap up, I'd like to thank all of our stakeholders for their continued support of Element Solutions, and in particular, our talented and dedicated people who helped make this outstanding quarter possible. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.
At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press the star and one on your touch tone telephone. You may remove yourself from the queue at any time by pressing the pound key. Once again, if you would like to ask a question today, please press star and one. We will take our first question today from Steve Byrne with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Yes. Thank you. Ben, your comments about Coventya sound more constructive after having a couple months with them now. My question for you is your outlook on that acquisition improving more because you see opportunities for productivity or is this really more about cross-selling or pricing power, outlook from here?
Thanks for the question, Steve. I think the answer is both. The Coventya business outperformed the forecast we bought the business off of. It has strong momentum, despite a weaker automotive backdrop, and obviously, automotive is a part of that business.
The teams are coming together really well from a commercial perspective, identifying great opportunities. The relationship strength is very complementary. Certain accounts where Coventya had great relationships, we had weaker relationships and vice versa. We see a really compelling growth opportunity from the business.
From a synergy standpoint as well, you know, the savings opportunities are becoming more tangible, and we've got line of sight to delivering, you know, in excess of what we've committed to, in terms of cost savings in a reasonable period of time. Both growth and savings are making us more encouraged there.
Any acceleration in any of that or seasonality to take into consideration to help us estimate what the 2022 EBITDA contribution might be? Is it simply, you know, 4x your EBITDA estimate for Q4?
There's a little bit of variability associated with that, driven by automotive, right? Automotive is a key variable that will determine, you know, the level of growth in that business. It's not a bad estimate to take a little bit more than 4x 80 because 80 is a slow quarter. Q4 is a slower quarter, and then add some synergies on top of that. We've tried to do that math for you guys in giving that baseline of about $560, before organic growth into next year.
Okay. Thank you for that, Ben. Just one risk I wanted to drill into is whether you see any potential that some of your sales in the auto end markets might have been driven by inventory build by your customer. Is that a potential headwind going forward?
It's hard to quantify, what's gone into units versus what's waiting to go into units, but the latent demand from the automotive space in the West gives us confidence that there's significant growth potential when the supply chain stabilize that will overcome any potential inventory build.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you. We will move next to Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Thank you. Ben, you guys had noted, I guess, through most of the year, your sales into the auto chain weren't reflective of production levels. Should we then think there may be a lag as production comes back? I noticed GM added some shifts, overtime shifts, and talked about supply improving. Is there gonna be a little bit of delay to seeing that reflected in your business, do you think?
I don't think that there would be a material lag when, not if, but when the auto market comes off of this period of weakness. Our customers have slowed down materially here in the last month and a half, and we expect that to persist into the fourth quarter, but we know they're all ready for that market to recover.
Some of the outperformance we saw relative to automotive is clearly being driven by other aspects of our industrial business. You know, our construction-related business, our machinery and heavy equipment-related business has been posting high double-digit growth on a sequential basis, and that's what's offset some of that automotive pressure.
The other thing I'd note is that content per vehicle is increasing in our Industrial Solutions business as well as our Electronics business. This isn't just a unit story, it's value in excess of units that should allow for us to outperform unit growth when unit growth returns.
Gotcha. In the Graphics business, you guys mentioned, particularly in North America, strength. The omission of talking of Europe, is that a function of it's just not as big a business, or is there something about your customers in those markets that haven't responded in a similar fashion to North America?
The graphics business is performing very, very well. It had a great quarter on a year-over-year and sequential basis. That business was just better in North America than in Europe, but it wasn't poor in Europe at all.
That performance is being driven by, you know, new investment from CPG customers and really strong commercial execution. We're winning a lot of business there, and we're poised for another year of good growth in graphics into next year.
Great. Thanks for the help.
Thanks, Bob.
As a reminder, that is star and one if you would like to ask a question today. We do ask to allow everyone an opportunity to ask a question, that you do limit yourself to one question plus one follow-up question. We'll go next to Kieran de Brun with Mizuho. Your line is open.
Hi, good morning.
Morning, Kieran.
I just wanna dial in a little bit more in the quarter. It seems like you took a lot of actions that helped offset some of the supply and logistical headwinds, and you're taking further actions on the raw material side by building inventories into the end of the year.
You know, if this environment persists a little bit longer than we expect, can you just talk about levers in the quarter that you pulled and maybe any additional levers you can pull to offset this in the near term?
Yeah, absolutely. Raw material price inflation and logistics cost inflation were a material impact in the quarter, which was expected. We've been taking price over the course of the year. We're not quite caught up from a raw material inflation perspective relative to the price actions we've taken.
But we have taken price, and you're seeing that through the P&L, and we will continue to as necessary to support margins. Logistics costs were a couple million dollars of a headwind sequentially, and you know, we expect that to also persist. We haven't taken price relative to logistics as yet. I would note, however, that our EBITDA margins on an organic basis are up year-over-year over 1.5 points. That's been hidden by the pass-through metal impact.
Metal price inflation's been staggering this year, and so you see that in our reported margins. Excluding the impact of metal, we've actually improved our margins year over year despite all this inflation. We are, you know, getting the price that we're trying to take, but we've got a bit more of that to do.
Great. Just a quick follow-up on the electronic side. I mean, you mentioned the investments that we're seeing from the customer perspective in terms of CapEx. I mean, should we be thinking about that creating a demand pull, maybe in the back half of next year and into 2023? Just how are you positioning yourself to maybe win share as some of these new investments come online?
Yeah. Our business has been executing exceptionally well commercially in the electronic space and in our other businesses as well. We have won more business year to date than we won in all of 2020, just as an example.
We are winning large customer engagements. Our CapEx is higher, in part because we're investing in equipment to support customers' new line builds. That's what gives us a lot of confidence and conviction, not just in the secular trends that are supporting our business, but in our ability to participate disproportionately from them.
Great. Thank you so much.
We will go next to Jonathan Tanwanteng with CJS Securities. Your line is open.
Hi, good morning, guys. Thank you for taking my questions. On that nice quarter and being able to hold the line on the guidance for the year is pretty impressive considering what else is going on in the industry right now. My first question is just in your discussions with customers, are they telling you to expect any easing in supply chain constraints as we head into next year? Do you know, do you have any kind of visibility at all? Is there any sector-specific commentary that we should be thinking about?
I think that customers, particularly in the automotive side, were optimistic entering the third quarter that things would get better by the end of the year. Clearly, you know, that hasn't happened. You know, our customers are dealing with the reality that a recovery in automotive is gonna be delayed at least into 2022.
In terms of visibility towards that recovery, we don't have a ton. You know, we see the demand. I think we all see the demand when you look at dealer inventories and used car prices. When the bottlenecks that are creating the supply issues here will be resolved is your guess is as good as mine.
Okay, fair enough. Just on the topic of price increases, have you been seeing any pushback from customers at all? I know you said you haven't been able to yet pass the logistics costs through. Is there a reason for that, or is that just something that's down the line and you expect to realize those over the next, you know, one or two quarters?
Yeah. You know, taking price is never easy, but we've been effective at doing so. There's a bit of a lag always from the decision to take price to the negotiation with the customer to that price increase actually going through. That lag is, you know, a quarter or so. Historically, we've had freight surcharges on external logistics. Our internal logistics we've covered ourselves, and so some of the cost increase we've seen is associated with our internal freight, which is something we have decided not to pass on.
With regard to other raw material inflation that we're catching up on, we are prepared to take action to support our margins as we have year to date and as you are seeing in our margins structure and our ability to withstand what's been very significant raw material inflation year to date.
Okay, thank you. That helps.
We will take our next question today from Josh Spector with UBS. Your line is open.
Yeah. Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I guess just first to maybe follow up on the price-cost dynamic and specifically in Industrial. Assuming that you are getting pricing and if we assume that metals prices and raws kind of stabilize where they are, is there anything you would add to that 360 EBITDA so like base for next year for price recapture from price-cost headwinds this year?
I'm trying to understand that question, Josh. Are you saying is there additional earnings growth from additional price actions that would support earnings, you know, a number above $560?
Yeah. I guess another way to ask it is where would you say pricing is now in industrial? Is that starting to cover the metals costs? Just trying to think if pricing stays where it is and raw materials stay where they are, is that enough to recover and grow margins absent volumes in that business next year?
I see. Raw material prices have inflated over the course of 2021, and we have a bit more work to do to support, you know, the very strong margin we had in the first quarter, for example. I wouldn't be counting on incremental price to contribute growth over and above that $560 million.
The growth above that $560 million is gonna be driven, you know, by volume, and to some extent mix, as our mix is increasing as we move more into EVs. The other thing I'd note, you referred to metal price specifically. We pass through most of our metal price, and so while it has an optical impact on margins, it doesn't have a dollar impact to profitability dollars.
Okay, fair enough. Just trying to contextualize electronics, you know, year to date, very strong growth. I don't know if you have the data to say what you think unit growth was underlying your volume growth and what your outperformance has been there year to date. You know, is the driver of that new wins or more content penetration? Does that rate change? Does that outperformance rate change when we start to think about 2022 better or worse?
Sure. The best indicator I would say for our electronics business is printed circuit board volume growth. Circuit board expectations for 2021 are up from, call it, high single digits to 14%-15%, and we're growing in excess of that, clearly, which to us is an indicator of outperformance.
You know, as we look at what the key indicators are in 2022, we expect handset unit growth. We expect significantly more 5G handsets, so there's more content per unit. We expect to continue to outperform by several points given our commercial execution. We got a lot of conviction in underlying growth and our ability to outperform.
Okay. Thank you.
We will go next to Chris Kapsch with Loop Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Yeah, good morning. Just a follow-up question about your electronics business and your formal comments, and I guess response to another question about the new business wins addressing the printed circuit board space and ecosystem.
You mentioned, I guess, a good amount of new business and being higher on a year-over-year basis year to date. Can you just talk about the cadence of this activity on a sequential basis? Has the you know the level of quoting activity been steady? Is it improving? What's going on on a sequential basis?
Yeah. So the seasonality we see through the top line is also reflected in the seasonality we see in terms of customer engagement. Customers are seeking RFPs and doing technology roadmap exchanges more towards the beginning of the year in advance of platform launches towards the tail end. Some of that commercial activity has slowed down, but that's what we would've expected at this point through the year. You know, we feel good that we've built in growth based on our wins in the period to date for next year and beyond.
Okay. As a follow-up, do you think it sounds like your inclination is that you're gaining share is based on these new account specifications or wins or turnkey system specifications. Can you just talk about that, and is there any change in the competitive behavior, I guess, with your key competitor there in the process of being acquired? Thank you.
Sure thing, Chris. For starters, from an industry perspective, there's much more growth in the high-end, higher technology, circuit board space than there is in the lower end. Just naturally, by virtue of diverging growth rates, the higher end is where the share gains are occurring or the higher end participants are growing share, and we're one of those. We would expect our share to grow just organically by virtue of industry dynamics.
That said, we are getting traction in markets that we have under-penetrated that we're strategically investing behind. We've made it very clear to the industry that we are open for business and investing aggressively behind our business, and very focused on that.
We feel like we've got an opportunity to take some share and, you know, the calculation of share takes a little while and is done in hindsight, but data points do seem positive in that regard.
That's helpful, Carey. Thank you.
We will move now to Duffy Fischer with Barclays. Your line is open.
Yeah. Good morning, Ben.
Morning.
Just a question around the contractual passthrough on the metal and, you know, maybe a few of the other raw materials that are contractual. Because they've moved so much, can you help us size this year within your COGS? How much do you think is gonna be COGS that have contractually moved with price versus, you know, those that you would actually physically have to go out and try to get price to offset?
Yeah. It's a good question, Duffy. We report the passthrough metals in our assembly business at $110 million in the quarter. We have other metals that are passed through, palladium, gold, other precious metals like that aren't captured in that, in what we report.
Altogether, you know, it's several hundred million dollars of metal that we're passing through, and I would've, you know, ballpark said there's been inflation of about $200 million in that basket.
Whereas the balance of our COGS are not contractually passed through, and we've been pursuing price in each of our businesses, and successful in getting price in each of our businesses to offset, where those raw materials have inflated.
Great. Thanks. When you look at your auto business, you know, next year, obviously you have an idea, kind of wins. You have an idea, you know, EV, hybrid, stuff like that. How much faster do you think you can grow volume than the market next year? You know, again, let's say that number is 3% faster. Does that change whether autos are up 5% or down 5%, or is that really, you know, kind of a linear add-on, as we go forward?
Yeah. Difficult question to answer, but, you know, about 25% of our business is automotive oriented. That's captured in both the industrial surface treatment business and in our electronics business. The reason that we have confidence we can outperform units in auto is because we're seeing increasing content per vehicle in both of those businesses with significantly more content in an EV vehicle versus an internal combustion engine.
One and a half, two times the content on an electric vehicle versus an internal combustion vehicle and you know, over the long term, our expectation is that content per ICE vehicle grows 2-3% faster than unit growth. You know, depending on EV penetration, you could see in excess of 3% outperformance to units. I don't see a big difference if units are up 2% or 5%, for example, or more, in that equation. I think the biggest variable is EV penetration out of the unit growth.
Perfect. Thank you, guys.
Thanks, Duffy.
We will take our final question today from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Angel Castillo, your line is open. Please check the mute function on your phone.
Hi, can you hear me?
Yes.
Sorry about that. Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Just wanted to circle back on the safety stock discussion. One, could you give us a little bit more color as to, you know, what is kind of typical inventory days and maybe where have you kind of moved up to? And two, as we think about, you mentioned, I think, next year continuing or the safety stock continuing to be as part of the base. Do you need to build more though, or are we kind of at the right level and it's just about kind of maintaining this higher safety level?
Yeah, thanks for the question. This is Carey. Normally in our business, we see, you know, inventory days between the mid- to high-60s getting closer to 70, depending on the quarter. We actually haven't crept up that much. I think we're a few days higher than we were if we look at our average over the course of several years.
We think year to date, we've built something like 40 or 50 worth of safety stocks. We intentionally did that. We think that's the right thing to do to support our customers. It's what's supporting the top line growth. Obviously we think that inventory will be easily sellable into next year and beyond.
As we think about the rest of the year, we're anticipating a small release of working capital to deliver the free cash flow that we've guided to. That's really more driven by the sales, sequential sales expectations than it is any significant release of safety stocks. For next year, I would expect, when we see these supply chain constraints reduce, that safety stock will release, and we should see a much better conversion to free cash flow from EBITDA next year.
Understood. That's very helpful. In terms of growth next year. That was very helpful. Thank you for providing the base that we should think about. As we kind of contemplate that within kind of the broader scope of your organic growth trajectory that you've outlined in the past Investor Days, I think it was roughly 4%. Could you give us kind of guardrails as we think about 2022? I know it's early, but what kind of gets you to be above that or below that and kind of is that the right way to think about 2022 from an organic basis?
Sure. The basis is the EBITDA before the synergies. We would expect our electronics business to grow in excess of its stable long-term rate, just given the stable long-term rate we communicated in our prior Investor Day, given the inflection we've seen from the secular trends that are driving that business really gaining traction in the past two years.
The bigger variable is the automotive industry and when it begins to recover. If it recovers towards the first half of the year, you could see, you know, significant outperformance relative to that long-term target from the automotive portion of the business.
If its recovery is delayed and supply chain issues persist, you can't count on significant growth from that part of the business. Automotive is gonna be the biggest variable as to the magnitude of outperformance relative to that long-term growth rate.
Understood. Thank you.
Thanks, Angel.
This does conclude our Q&A session for today. I will turn the call back for any additional or closing remarks.
Thanks very much to everybody for joining. We look forward to seeing and speaking with you in the days and weeks to come. Have a good day.
This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.