Welcome to the Essex Property Trust Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. Statements made on this conference call regarding expected operating results and other future events are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements are made based on current expectations, assumptions and beliefs as well as information available to the company at this time. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Further information about these risks can be found on the company's filings with the SEC. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Michael Schall, President and Chief Executive Officer for Essex Property Trust. Thank you, Mr. Schall. You may begin.
Good morning, welcome to our Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Angela Kleiman and Barb Pak will follow me with comments, Adam Berry is here for Q&A. Today, I will touch briefly on our full year results, expectations for 2023, why we believe that our West Coast rental markets are positioned to outperform over the next several years. I will conclude with comments on the transaction market and the upcoming Chief Executive Officer transition. Overall, 2022 was a positive year for Essex as we generated full-year Core FFO per share growth of 16.2%, our highest year-over-year increase in a decade, 9.3% above pre-COVID levels.
We attribute these strong results to relentless execution by the Essex team, improved efficiencies from the implementation of our property collections model, and the strong recovery in our West Coast markets for the better part of the year. Our positive results were achieved despite the challenges associated with COVID-19 regulations in our markets. Our near-term results will remain impacted by elevated delinquency, which we estimate will represent a $0.60 per share drag on FFO in 2023 compared to our pre-COVID levels of delinquency. Notwithstanding the impact of delinquency in 2023, we believe we are entering the final phase of these challenges and that our COVID-related headwinds will be behind us in 2024.
For 2023, we reaffirm our 2% market rent growth expectation across the Essex markets as shown on page S-17 of the supplemental package, which is predicated on consensus assumptions for a slowdown in the U.S. economy driven by higher interest rates. Macroeconomic visibility is limited by a variety of factors, which translates into a wider than normal range of potential outcomes this year. Recent economic data highlights continued resiliency in the labor market with solid reports for job growth and unemployment claims, even with elevated layoff announcements. In Essex markets, preliminary job growth for December was 3.8%, and the recent unemployment rate was only 3.2%, both outperforming national averages.
Looking ahead, layoff announcements and lower job openings among large tech companies signal a softer employment outlook for 2023, which we incorporated into our forecast assumptions shown on page S-17. Our primary challenge since early 2020 relates to the massive layoffs that occurred as a direct result of the government's response to the pandemic, which eliminated nearly 3 million jobs in California alone and forced people out of densely populated areas in search of work. It has taken over two years to recover those jobs lost during the pandemic, and I'm pleased to say that the Essex markets have now fully recovered those losses.
It is notable that each of the eight major metros in the Essex portfolio have now recovered from 98.8 %- 100.9% of the jobs lost in the early part of the pandemic, leading us to believe that most of the slack in the housing supply-demand relationship from the pandemic no longer exists. We believe that this is a major milestone which should lead us back to our pre-pandemic growth profile once the economy stabilizes. As with past economic slowdowns, a frequent concern involves the tech companies that dominate Northern California and Seattle with nearly daily reminders of tech layoffs amplified in the newspapers. The tech sector is often volatile, yet over longer periods, the industry has reliably generated top paying jobs and wealth creation that are at the foundation of the strong rental growth.
A core strength of the tech industries is their ability to evolve in a cyclical process of reinvention, where the groundwork for new rounds of innovation are laid while the prior cycle is slowing. I am confident that this is what is occurring today. Going back to the 1980s, big tech was focused on IBM PCs and R&D efforts to improve semiconductor manufacturing. That phase ended with the recession in the early 1990s. Growth of the internet and e-commerce soon emerged. Later boomed and busted, capping the dot-com era from which many believed tech would never recover. Instead, a wave of social and mobile products emerged 20 years ago, including Facebook, YouTube, and the iPod and iPhone, setting up a much larger and more profitable era of growth.
Following the Great Recession, cloud computing and machine learning added to the next period of rapid growth, both for new startups and for sector leaders like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Now, despite a very similar set of concerns, many of you will have followed the explosive recent adoption of new AI products such as ChatGPT and DALL-E. Consistent with the transformative technologies of the past, the innovators and investors in artificial intelligence are overwhelmingly concentrated in our markets, including OpenAI in San Francisco and Google Brain in Mountain View. Despite a broad VC slowdown last year, funding for AI increased 70% and is now poised to grow vastly more in 2023. In a recent search of the leading 100 startups in artificial intelligence, we found that more are headquartered in the Bay Area than in the entire rest of the United States.
It is a combination of entrepreneurial spirit, financial capital, and technical talent found on the West Coast as well as housing supply constraints that drives our expectation for the West Coast to generate superior rent growth over the long term. Turning to the apartment investment markets, we continue to see muted deal volume in our West Coast markets as buyers and sellers seek to compromise on their expectations for property values and yields. A relatively small number of apartment sales indicate that property values and cap rates have not changed materially since last quarter, cap rates generally are in the mid to high 4% range for high-quality suburban apartments. At this point, we're seeing pockets of distress, mostly focused on owners subject to variable rate debt and maturing short-term loans.
It's possible that an extended period of elevated interest rates and slower rent growth could create new opportunities to generate FFO and NAV per share. We sold one property in the fourth quarter, and we are working on other potential sales. In conclusion, assuming my math is correct, this is my 115th consecutive conference call on behalf of Essex, which will be my last given my pending retirement as Chief Executive Officer at the end of March. I am incredibly grateful for the opportunity to be part of the highly skilled, disciplined, and focused leadership team for this great company. I'm taking a step back with full confidence in Angela's ability to lead the company, along with her determined and like-minded team. Thank you all.
Finally, I have enjoyed working with so many of you in the investment community, and I thank you for your trust and support over many years. I remain confident that many great years for the company are on the horizon. With that, I'll turn the call over to Angela Kleiman.
Thank you, Mike. The evolution of Essex under your 37-year leadership has been remarkable. I and the senior team are grateful for your mentorship and will continue to diligently serve this company as we move forward. My comments today will start with brief operational highlights of our fourth quarter performance, followed by our current operating strategy and updates on key operational initiatives. Essex had a productive 2022, which included optimizing the strong leasing momentum heading into our peak leasing season, addressing delinquency and recapturing units from non-paying tenants while transforming our operating business model. These accomplishments are the result of the exceptionally hardworking operations and support teams thoughtfully executing our business strategy amidst highly dynamic market conditions. Great job, team. Moving on to the fourth quarter.
We shifted to an occupancy-focused strategy in late September in anticipation of softening demand and elevated move-outs related to eviction activity. The confluence of these factors created a challenging operating environment in the final months of 2022. Our switch to favoring occupancy helped us moderate the seasonal weakness and the elevated turnover caused by higher evictions. Excluding L.A. and Alameda counties, I am pleased to report that we have made significant progress recapturing approximately 50% of delinquent units compared to one year ago. In addition, as we start the new year, demand fundamentals have improved in line with our expectations. Our net effective new lease rates troughed at the end of November, and we have been able to reduce concessions while gradually increasing new lease rates from December to January on a sequential basis.
In the near term, we will maintain our occupancy-focused strategy as we continue to make progress on eviction-related turnover. Our portfolio sits at a healthy 96.4% financial occupancy today, and we are well positioned to increase rents if demand exceeds our expectations. Turning to key operations initiatives. We continue to make progress with our Property Collections Operating Model. Phase one is now complete, which centralized administrative and leasing functions, which combined nearby properties into one centrally managed business unit. The efficiency benefit can be seen in our financial results with administrative expense growth of only 0.7% last year. For 2023, we anticipate only a 3% increase despite inflationary pressures. Phase II expands the same operating principles to the maintenance function. We expect numerous benefits, including savings from reduction in third-party vendor contracts and unit churn efficiencies.
The maintenance collections pilot is progressing well and is expected to conclude mid-year. At that point, we will provide additional details on the rollout. Lastly, on the technology front, we continue to make excellent progress, most recently with the launch of our proprietary revenue management software. We have been developing this capability over the past two years and are excited for a platform with an integrated pricing and operating strategy tailored for the nuances in our markets. This concludes my remarks, and I will now turn the call over to Barb Pak.
Thanks, Angela. Today, I will focus on our 2023 guidance, followed by comments on investments and the balance sheet. Our 2023 guidance assumes same-property revenue growth of 4% at the midpoint on a cash basis. Overall, we expect healthy top line growth and stable occupancy to be partially offset by 70 basis points of higher delinquency. The reason we believe delinquency will be higher than 2022 is due to uncertainty around the timing of evictions in all of our markets. In addition, we do not expect to receive much in the way of emergency rental assistance as compared to $34 million we received last year on a same-store basis. As it relates to operating expenses, we are forecasting a 5% increase at the midpoint, which is above our historical run rate. There are a couple of reasons for the higher than expected increase.
First, controllable expenses are forecasted to increase 4%, which is driven by wage inflation and elevated eviction-related costs, partially offset by savings we achieved via the rollout of our property collections model last year. Second, we are experiencing elevated cost pressures within utilities and insurance. In total, we expect same property NOI growth of 3.6% at the midpoint. In terms of Core FFO, our midpoint assumes 1.6% growth. The primary reasons for the modest increase include higher interest expense and delinquency and lower structured finance income, which are outlined on page six of the earnings release. In total, these items equate to a $0.57 per share headwind, representing nearly a 4% reduction to growth on a year-over-year basis. Turning to investments.
Given the challenging investment environment and our elevated cost of capital, we have not provided specific estimates for new acquisitions, as it is difficult to generate accretion today given the significant disconnect between public and private market pricing. Given this disconnect, the best way to create value today is through asset sales and share buybacks or via preferred equity investments, all of which we completed in 2022. It should be noted that we have a long track record of finding ways to create NAV and FFO per share in all environments, and we will maintain that discipline going forward, while at the same time match funding our investments on a leverage neutral basis. As it relates to the structured finance portfolio, during the quarter, we completed a comprehensive review of our investments, performing a wide range of sensitivity analysis on a variety of key metrics.
The analysis confirmed the portfolio is performing as expected, with the exception of two investments, both located within the Oakland sub-market. One of the investments was redeemed in the fourth quarter, resulting in a $2 million impairment. For the other investment, we took a conservative approach given the uncertainty around fundamentals in Oakland due to high apartment deliveries, which is leading to an elevated concessionary environment. As a result, we stopped accruing on this investment during the fourth quarter, resulting in a $0.06 reduction to our 2023 guidance. Overall, we have a long, successful track record of investing in structured finance investments. Over the past 12 years, we have invested approximately $690 million in structured finance investments that have been fully redeemed, achieving a 13% average annual return for our shareholders. Lastly, onto the balance sheet.
During the quarter, we saw a continued improvement in our credit metrics, with net debt to EBITDA returning to pre-COVID levels at a healthy 5.6 times. With no debt maturing on our consolidated balance sheet until 2024, limited development funding needs and ample liquidity, our balance sheet remains in a strong position. I will now turn the call back to the operator for questions.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, you may press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in a question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Our first question comes from the line of Nick Joseph with Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Thanks. First of all, congratulations again, Mike and Angela. Mike, I appreciate the comments on kind of the tech cycle and future thoughts there. What gives you the comfort that the benefit for any recovery or the eventual recovery, I guess, in tech, will accrue mostly to the West Coast markets like we've seen in the past? Versus maybe some of the more newer tech markets or Sun Belt markets, given the population and job growth trends that we've seen there.
Well, thank you for the congratulations. I appreciate it. I think tech is just growing in terms of its share of, you know, the overall employment base. You know, we expect tech to grow throughout the United States and certainly wouldn't exclude the Sun Belt. I think that as with the past, most of the cutting-edge technology and the people that are really driving innovation will be located, as they have been in the past, here on the West Coast. That gives us a, you know, great deal of comfort. I, you know, went through that relatively long description of my career here and what tech has done really because of that, because we've seen it reinvent itself so many times over and over again.
I would have a hard time believing that that is anywhere close to being at an end. Finally, I guess I would add that the, you know, the prospects and the importance of AI to almost every application from, you know, businesses to consumers, et cetera, is pretty extraordinary. I think this is gonna continue onward, and I think that we'll be right in the center of that innovation here on the West Coast.
Yeah. The AI innovation is pretty exciting. Just on the structured finance program, I guess two questions. Just number one, for the asset in Oakland, that you're not accruing income, if you walk through how that potentially could play out going forward in terms of your role there. Sounds like you ran an analysis across everything and everything, all the other are performing as expected, but are there any on the watchlist or potentially maybe could become issues?
Hi, Nick. It's Barb. Yeah, we did a comprehensive review. On the rest of the portfolio, we don't have any other assets that are on the watchlist. Keep in mind, we leaned in heavily in 2020 and prior when cap rates were higher. NOI has grown significantly since we started this portfolio. None of the other properties screened high on the capital stack. The one in Oakland is really a function of the high concessionary environment right now. Net effective rents are lower, NOI is lower than how we underwrote it. We're higher in the stack than what we'd like to be. That's why we took a conservative approach to stop accruing. We have constant dialogue with the sponsor, and they're very engaged and are participating, writing checks as needed.
We don't see any other fallout at this time from that asset.
Thank you very much.
Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Paolone with J.P. Morgan. Please proceed with your question.
Thank you. Add my well wishes and congrats to you, Mike, as well. First question is, you know, I think last quarter and at Nareit, you talked about, you know, about a week of free rent, I think, in Seattle and a couple of weeks in San Francisco. I'm just wondering where those numbers sit today, and whether or not you've seen the effect of all the layoffs that have really been announced since the fall?
Yeah. Hi, it's Angela here. On the concessions, we have seen it essentially taper off throughout the portfolio since December, which is, you know, basically I'd mentioned earlier that our portfolio troughed late November and it's significantly improved as an overall average in the fourth quarter, particularly in December. We were running about two weeks concessions, and right now as a portfolio average, we're running less than one week. That gives you a indication, you know, directionally how things have improved pretty quickly.
Okay. Just one follow-up for Barb. You gave us the bad debts, like the per share drag and the 70 basis points on growth. If I look at the fourth quarter, it was 1.1%, I think. Is there a way to express it in those terms in terms of where your expectations are for 2023?
Yeah, Tony. For 2023, we're expecting bad debt as a percent of scheduled rent to be 2%. Keep in mind, we don't expect any emergency rental assistance in 2023 as compared to the $34 million we received on a same-store basis in 2022. That's why the net number is going to increase. We were at 1.3% in 2022, and it's going to 2%. Now, the underlying gross delinquency is improving because we are able to evict. It's just taking longer than we had initially expected, but we are making progress on that front, as Angela mentioned in her script.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Wes Golladay with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question.
Hey. Good morning, everyone, and congrats again, Mike. I'm curious, how does supply pressure change throughout the year, and at what point do you start to push rates?
Wes, you know, thank you for the congrats. I appreciate that. In terms of supply pressure, there are pockets of supply in a few places. We noted Oakland.
Earlier, I think there are multiple lease ups in Oakland, which are really having the effect of pushing down price. Seattle has more supply deliveries this year, and especially in the fourth quarter because it's generally seasonally weak period, and Seattle tends to be weaker than the California markets, primarily because, you know, demand goes to zero in the fourth quarter or close to zero, and Seattle has more supply of apartments. Going forward, the supply picture looks like it's declining, you know, this is a result of obviously lack of rent growth just for the last few years. The ability to produce housing at an accretive level is pretty challenged, and we see that in our preferred equity book as well.
I think we're gonna be in a period where there's relatively not a lot of supply, and if we get any demand, we'll be in good shape.
Got it. Just curious, what happens to all these people that are evicted? If you have a new tenant coming in, say in June, will you know if they were a non-payer at their prior apartment, or is just everyone gonna swap non-paying tenants?
Well, on the tenant screening front, we have a pretty robust process there. Having said that, we of course will do credit checks and that'll let us know if they are, you know, a non-pay or if they have any prior debt that needs to be paid. That's our best indicator on that front.
Okay. That would be a relatively timely event. I guess it's like the tenants that are not paying, it's already in the books for you as a delinquent tenant.
Correct. Correct. In fact, even for us, for the tenants who have left, we have, you know, we immediately have updated the credit report as well on our end. There's of course ongoing report on ongoing debts. There are various resources that we can use, and we have in use.
Great. Thanks for the time, everyone.
Next question comes from the line of Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBank. Please proceed with your question.
Yeah, thanks. I wanted to revisit the delinquency. I think last quarter you referenced L.A. County was, I believe, 40% of the overall delinquency. You know, what is that figure today? I'm curious, on the $0.60 per share, what is the annualized run rate that you'll be running at or that you're assuming, as, you know, by the fourth quarter of 2023?
You know, I'll just touch on the delinquency population. It's Angela here. In the past, L.A. is about 40%. It's ticked up to about 50% L.A. delinquency. That doesn't surprise us. You know, given the eviction moratorium has not been lifted, we had expected L.A. to continue to accrue under delinquent spaces. However, you know, the good news is that the new tenants coming in, we're not seeing those tenants run prior tenants.
Austin, this is Barb. On the $0.60 that Mike referred to, that is compared to our pre-COVID historical run rate for not only the revenue piece, but also the expense piece, because we have elevated eviction and turnover costs associated with the delinquency. It's both pieces. You know, what we are expecting in the back half of the year is our delinquency, our gross delinquency will be around 1.5% for the second half of the year, 2% for the full year. We do expect to make progress, but given the timing on these evictions is very difficult to predict at this point. You know, we don't expect to be to our normalized run rate by the end of the year.
No, that's fair. Just trying to understand what sort of the earnings power going into 2024 is. You know, we'll have to revisit that later this year. Second question. You referenced your shift to favoring occupancy late last year, and you highlighted some month-over-month improvement from December to January. I guess, what would it take for you guys to pivot towards, you know, going back to pushing rate? Would that mean that the 5.5% renewal rate growth that you're at in January could stabilize or even re-accelerate from here? Or would the benefit accrete more towards new lease rates?
That's a good question. you know, in terms of the occupancy strategy and when we will shift, it's going to be a little bit different in each of the markets. For example, we actually are seeing great strength in our Southern California portfolio. However, we are running a little bit higher occupancy in anticipation of the eviction and the opportunities to vacate, you know, non-paying units that's coming our way. We're building that not because we're seeing a market softness issue. It's more of a strategic play, you know, to ensure that we are well-positioned.
For example, in places like Seattle, which is, as we noted, is highly seasonal, when we see demand come back, as it typically does during peak leasing season, we would expect that we should be able to switch back to favoring rent growth, especially now that we've been able to, you know, reduce concessions in a meaningful way.
Is it safe to assume that Northern California has a similar setup as Seattle in terms of some seasonality maybe, and the opportunity being to be able to push a little bit harder as we come out of the seasonal lull, if you will?
Yes, that makes sense. The one caveat is, of course, the supply conversation that we talked earlier, right? For example, places like Oakland, that will continue to probably take a little bit longer because of the supply. In areas where we are not, you know, trying to manage through pockets of supply, there are some good opportunities there.
Okay, thanks for the time. I'll hop back in the queue.
Our next question comes from the line of Steve Sakwa with Evercore. Please proceed with your question.
Yeah, thanks. Mike, offer my congratulations as well to you and to Angela on the transition. I guess the question, when you think about the cadence and timing of revenue growth, can you maybe just talk about how you think that progresses throughout the year and maybe what the first half looks like versus the second half? I realize there are some shifts in the delinquency numbers that Barb just spoke about. When you kind of look at that, you know, sort of midpoint, say 4% on a cash basis, you know, how heavy is that in the first half, and I guess how light is that in the second half?
Yes, Steve, it's Barb. I would say the first half we expect to be higher than the second half. We're about 5% in the first half. The first quarter will probably be north of that, and then it'll trend down throughout the year with 3% on average in the second half of the year. That's really a function of the year-over-year comps. Last year, while rents accelerated, it didn't fully hit our revenue growth line. We expect to capture that this year. First half will be higher than the second half.
Okay. You know, you talked a lot about. Well, I guess let me just stay on occupancy for kind of the second question. You know, when you think about some of the potential soft points that Mike talked about in tech, I guess how are you thinking about maybe some of the potential occupancy loss in either Seattle or San Francisco or, you know, what have you baked in, I guess, specifically for the Bay Area and Seattle from an occupancy perspective?
From an occupancy perspective, we're not running it a whole lot different than prior periods. The one caveat is really more focused on Southern California, particularly L.A., because we're anticipating, you know, some vacancies there from evictions. For example, you know, we saw the similar headwind in Northern California in the fourth quarter, and we anticipated that, so we employed the same strategy. It's really more focused on some of these unique situation as we come out of COVID-related legislation to, you know, really to position us for better growth. Mike, you wanna talk about the employment?
Yeah. Let me just add one more quick thing. Steve, you know, a big question here is what is gonna happen to the pace of employment? As I noted in the prepared remarks, job growth has been really strong. However, you know, maybe some of the layoffs or the WARN notices haven't actually showed up in job growth yet. Our expectation for the year, just to remind everyone on F-17 was for -0.2% job growth for the U.S. We're gonna be watching job growth over the next several months, but seems like we are running stronger than we expected, certainly with respect to January's job growth number. If that continues, then, you know, you'll get to a point where maybe our U.S. job growth estimate on F-17 is too conservative.
We'll watch that closely.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your question.
Good morning. Morning out there. Just joining in. Mike, congratulations on your tenure and your last earnings call, and Angela, best on taking the helm next quarter. Two questions. First, maybe just sticking with that job rebound, Mike. You know, you had mentioned early on in COVID-19 when everything in California was shut down, a lot of service industries, those jobs literally had to flee because they were closed down. They couldn't work, whereas a lot of tech people could work from home.
As you talked about that really strong job rebound in December and the fact that California's recovered all of its jobs, how would you rate, you know, when we see these headlines of the layoffs versus it sounds like there is pretty good job growth, is it more of the job growth coming from the service jobs, and maybe that's what you're seeing more demand in your apartments? As you look at your resident mix profile, you're like, "Look, our resident mix profile today is really no different than it was back in 2019"?
Yeah, Alex. You know, I think things are normalizing from, you know, that pandemic period. But I would say, yes, we are recovering leisure, hospitality, and other service jobs at a very high rate, and that continues onward. It, it appears to be normalizing. Also, the tech job growth during the pandemic was incredibly strong, and we think that, you know, some of the more recent tech announcements are just sort of giving back a small portion of the job gains that occurred during the pandemic. We don't even consider tech to be all that weak at this point in time. I think it's just transitioning from what it was and taking the next step or the next chapter of things. Overall, you know, we think jobs are on the right track.
You know, our F-17 was based on the consensus estimates of all the big economists in the U.S. It's possible, and it almost seems like, you know, whatever weakness we might have is being pushed back because we're stronger earlier, which would probably be a net benefit for this year if that continues. We'll be paying close attention to that. I wanna maybe go into the two more things actually. One is the WARN notices. You know, we had our data analytics team do an analysis of the largest, you know, layoffs announced and what portion of them are in California and Washington versus the total. This is Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Salesforce, and Cisco.
They globally have 1.6 million employees, and the layoff rate is about 4% or 64,000 announced layoffs. In the California-Washington market. The employees of those companies in these markets are about 335,000 people, and there's about 10,000 layoffs. The percentage of layoff is lower actually in California and Washington as compared to the broader enterprise. I think that is important. Finally, it's interesting, the unemployment rates are super low. You know, San Francisco, 2.2%, in San Jose, 2.4%. Everyone under the U.S. average except for Los Angeles, which is at 4.5%. No doubt, that's because people are drawing benefits and able to stay in their apartment subject to the eviction moratoria.
Okay. The second question is just getting back to the delinquencies. I think you guys have highlighted obviously L.A. and Oakland. Is that the bulk of what's driving delinquencies this year? As a consequence, especially in L.A. with the just cause eviction, should we assume that you guys will look to pare your exposure to L.A. County?
Let me talk about that, Angela or someone else may have a comment. The two really difficult eviction moratoria are in Alameda County, which is Oakland and L.A., L.A. City. L.A. City expired, however, L.A. County extended to March 31st. Actually, L.A. City was a really horrible ordinance. L.A. County is not nearly as restrictive. For example, it only applies to 80% of median income tenants, for example. There's a little bit of relief in L.A. In terms of exiting L.A., I think that it depends. I mean, we will enter and exit markets as we deem necessary using a much broader set of criteria, you know, for supply, demand analysis, rent growth expectations, cap rates, et cetera. That will drive that discussion, as well as, jobs and some of these other issues.
Okay. Thank you.
Alex, then on the delinquent unit front, L.A. and Alameda are the bulk of our delinquent units. Over 60% of our delinquent units, long term, greater than 3 months, are in L.A., Alameda. That's a factor as well as the slowdown in the courts. Courts are really bogged down. It's taking longer to evict in our other markets, that is a factor as well in the 2023 guidance to recapture those units.
Our next question comes from the line of Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Yeah. Hey, everyone. Thanks. Mike, last quarter you said that the 2% rent growth forecast seemed pretty dire at the time, and it was more based on what the Fed was doing and projections from economists than what you're actually seeing on the ground. I know you reiterated the 2%, but your commentary around employment seems to suggest that you still think it's a somewhat pessimistic outlook. Am I interpreting that right?
I think Angela and Barb will kick me if I say anything that's inconsistent with our published position. I mean, the reality is I don't know. In the comments, I referred to, you know, a range of outcomes that's broader than, you know, historically. You know, We've been able to triangulate in the past, for most of the past, you know, the relationship of supply and demand much more, much better than we can this year. There are more moving pieces. Given that inherent uncertainty, I still think that F-17 is within the range of potential outcomes. Again, we'll be watching job growth and WARN notices and all those various items for better visibility.
Notably, a WARN notice out there may not have hit the layoff part of the reported job growth, so there's a lag there. It's a little bit unfair to comment on that until we see what how that plays out.
Okay, fair enough. Non-revenue generating CapEx seemed elevated in the fourth quarter, and I think the 2022 total was up about 40% year-over-year. What's driving that, and can you give any expectation for where 2023 will shake out?
Sure. Hey, it's Angela here. I think it may be helpful to just talk about how we look at CapEx because, you know, looking at a one-year number can be misleading. Our CapEx program is, you know, for each property is on a 10-year plan. On years where there's, you know, a large improvement that needs to be made, like a roof replacement, for example, it's gonna show up, and it's going to look lumpy. But having said that, in 2022, we also had to catch up from when we paused, you know, activities in 2020. For example, you know, pre-COVID-19, we were running closer to about $1,700 per door. In 2020, we were down to, like, $1,300, so over 20% increase.
you know, you play that forward a couple of years later, there is that lag effect. That's what you're seeing as well. If you look at a, say, 10-year average, our CapEx per door is pretty similar to where our peers are. Now we do have, you know, a little older portfolio, on average, so it naturally we should run a slightly higher CapEx per door. That's, you know. Sorry for the long-winded answer, but there's just a little bit more to it than just 1 number per year. Next year, we're evaluating the expectations. It's, you know, you have also inflation, so it's probably gonna be similar to 2023, I mean 2022. Like I said, over a period of time, over a long period of time, it should revert to a long-term average.
Okay. Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of John Kim with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Thank you. Congrats to everyone. I wanted to ask about the pricing of Anavia, which seemed better than expected given the interest rate environment. Any commentary you could provide on this pricing, if it's reflective of other asset sales that you're working on? Sort of on a related topic, the mansion tax in L.A., what do you think that's gonna have, the impact that will have on both the transaction market near term and pricing?
Sure. Hi, John. This is Adam. Beginning with Anavia. Anavia was I'd say an opportunistic sale to it was a very specific buyer and that's reflected in the pricing. Generally speaking, we're seeing cap rates kind of trading in the market in the mid to high 4s. Anavia I'd say outperformed that by a bit, again, just because this very specific situation. Regarding the mansion tax in L.A. We've seen a slight elevated potential transaction volume in L.A. due to the mansion tax coming into effect April first. For the most part, I think most of those deals probably won't trade, just given they were all on very short runways.
Pricing expectations just doesn't seem like they're being met. Going forward, I think we've seen this in Washington when they bumped their transfer tax up. It actually did not affect transaction volume generally at all. I think the one thing that may be an outcome of the L.A. mansion tax is it could potentially hinder development within Los Angeles. Any significant headwind to development returns, especially for merchant builders, that's just going to affect their back end and make it that much harder to build.
My second question is just a follow-up on delinquencies. Looks like it's gonna be $40 million on a gross basis this year. How does that compare to last year? We estimated at about $57 million just based on your disclosure. Just wanted to make sure that was accurate. As part of that, can ERA surprise to the upside? There's not much baked in guidance.
Hi, John. I may have to follow up with you on those numbers when I get back to my office and have the model in front of me. I don't know if I wanna quote the numbers here on the call. In terms of ERA, that would be upside if we were to collect some, but we've exhausted most of that so that we don't expect much in the way of ERA. The one thing I would keep in mind, though, is we do have $90 million uncollected bad debt cumulative since the start of COVID. We only have a $3.4 million accounts receivable balance. We think we'll collect more than $3.4 million. It's just a timing of when we're gonna collect that. That is upside to the numbers.
It's just we don't have that baked into our forecast given the inherent nature of when we're gonna collect that. That's really the upside is on that front, more so than even ERA, I would say.
Okay. Just I'll follow up with you offline, but that $57 million we calculated from the change in cumulative plus the ERA you received last year. I'll follow up offline. Thanks.
Okay.
Our next question comes from the line of Joshua Dennerlein with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Yeah. Hey, everyone. Sorry if I missed it, but did you guys say we're sending out new and renewal notices today?
It's Angela here. No, we haven't talked about that. Our new and renewals are sending out somewhere between, say, 4%-5%, depending on the market. This is for February and March. Keep in mind that does get negotiated. If we're sending out, you know, renewals, say north of 5%, we assume maybe 100 basis points negotiation depending on when. Some of these markets we're sending out well in advance. For example, Seattle, it goes out 6 months in advance. Hopefully that gives you a better sense of the range of outcome.
Okay. Yeah, no, that's helpful. Barbara, I wanted to touch base on, you mentioned eviction costs and same-store expenses, and I guess those were being elevated. I guess, how are those showing up in same-store expenses? If you kinda normalize for those, what would your same-store expense look like?
Eviction costs show up in our administrative line. Obviously we have elevated turnover as well, and that's in the R&M line. It's in both lines. I would say in total, relative to our historical average, our controllables are forecasted to be 4% this year, but without the elevated eviction and turnover costs, we think we'd be closer to 3%. It's about 100 basis points impact to the controllable line item for the year.
Okay. That's awesome. Thanks, Barbara.
Our next question comes from the line of Nick Yulico with Scotiabank. Please proceed with your question.
Thanks. First question is just in terms of when you're looking at some of your data on move-outs, maybe you could talk about how that's trending in terms of, you know, reasons for move-outs, you know, job losses versus, you know, rents being too high or even, you know, move-outs to other regions?
Yeah. It's Angela here. You know, that's interesting because we keep expecting big shifts coming out of COVID under move-out reasons. Moving out to buy a home really still hasn't changed from a long-term average, I think because the cost of housing here is just a lot less affordable. Job transfers or other reasons, pretty darn similar to our historical averages. We have not seen any material changes on move-out reasons.
Okay. Thanks, Angela. Other question is on move-ins? You know, whether you're seeing any, you know, benefit from, you know, return to office, which has been a little bit of a slower process in some markets on the West Coast. I mean, are you seeing any benefit from that in recent months, whether it's, you know, specific cities in the portfolio or even, you know, from your move-in data, if you are seeing any instances of, you know, people re-relocating back into your markets because, you know, they're now required to be in some sort of hybrid job in an office, in your markets increasingly? I'll just as well congrats, Angela and Mike as well.
Thank you on the congrats and once again, another good question on the in-migration. It's I had mentioned that in the third quarter we saw a pretty big uptick on the in-migration to our markets, 30%-35% on average between Northern and Southern California. Of course, part of that is attributed to return to office. We have seen that trend continue in the fourth quarter, but keep in mind, fourth quarter is, you know, typically just a low demand period, so it's really difficult for us to glean a particular trend. The only thing I can tell you is that compared to the first quarter, you know, the in-migration is still better, marginally. We're not talking huge numbers from that perspective.
once again, you know, fourth quarter is just a tough time to try to get an indication of that. Mike, do you have anything you wanna add?
Yeah, I just wanted to maybe add, we do some work, again, data analytics team, that deals with migrant patterns. And I guess I wanna make the comment that it seems to be normalizing as well. Again, you had that mass exodus early on in the pandemic and, you know, we've been making progress and just got to the point where we've effectively replaced all those jobs. But the places where people are coming from and going to, again, using LinkedIn data, not our own data, appear to be, you know, pretty similar to what they were in the past. So generally speaking, the migration pattern here is we get people from, the large Eastern and Midwestern metros and actually more recently, Dallas and Atlanta are on that list of incoming, in the top five.
The places where people go, you know, typically people will retire, sell their house in California, their expensive house, and use it as part of their retirement plan. They go to, you know, less expensive West Coast cities, you know, notably Phoenix, Denver, Las Vegas.
Thanks. Appreciate that, Mike. Any plans to move or are you staying in California?
I'm staying and, you know, I'm looking forward to spending some time with the grandkids and that type of stuff. I'm still gonna be around if Angela will have me, and, in a, you know, a role to be determined. I, you know, I love the company and love what I do here, so, not ready to completely check in. You know, this whole thing is really driven by Angela being ready and that's what's important. She'll do a great job. I'm very confident.
Great. Best of luck to you. Thanks.
Our next question comes from the line of Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Hey, thanks for the question, and congrats again. You know, look, just wanted to ask about, you know, obviously tech markets overall, right, where you guys are located, but maybe just kind of specifically, the tech exposure among your tenant base, if you have that number? Look, I get that they're kind of secondary tech jobs, and secondary exposures to kind of tech jobs within your market. Maybe just kind of explicitly tenants who are employed by tech employers, if you kind of have that percentage for your residents?
Yeah, that's a good question. What we do is we track the top, you know, the top six, because everything else it's just too fungible on that number. Currently, we're about 7% of our tenant base is linked, directly linked to the top six tech companies. You know, of course, it's much more concentrated in Northern California and Seattle, relatively speaking. That's a very manageable base. Of course, in certain assets or properties that has a, you know, much closer proximity to one of these headquarters, the percentage will be disproportionately higher.
How does that 7% kind of compare to, you know, maybe pre-COVID or last year or historical average types of numbers?
Not a big change. We tend to kinda run between, say, you know, 5%-7%, and it kinda hovers around there.
Got it. That's really helpful. Maybe just switching gears, you know, wondering in kind of the new versus renewal trends. You know, new lease kind of modestly negative, I think kind of still in the 5% range for renewals for January. You know, look, I think conceptually, if I, if I understand correctly, if that trend kind of continues, maybe it would form, you know, kind of a gain to lease. Wondering, you know, maybe your thoughts on that, if you could kind of see that happening or maybe kind of renewal and new converge over time and kind of that gain to lease isn't formed.
Yeah. You know, a couple of things. Just wanted to give you a little background first on the new lease rates. You know, that of course is heavily impacted by our concessionary strategy, which is related to our occupancy strategy. Part of that is not as much a market issue versus a strategy issue. Of course, that is something that we shift quickly away from the concessionary environment in January. I don't want you to think that this is something permanent and it's here to stay. You know, ultimately, you know, with the renewal rate, in a environment where new leases are, at, you know, on our S-16 expected to be about 2%, there is going to be a convergence of new lease and renewal rates.
It'll probably take, you know, this full year to have that play out.
Got it. Thanks again for the time. Really appreciate it.
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question. My first question is, what is Essex current exposure to corporate housing? How do we reconcile the impact of job losses with return to the office?
I'm sorry, can you repeat the first part on corporate housing?
What is your current exposure to corporate housing?
Current e-exposure. Got it. Got it. Our current exposure is about 3%. What's interesting about that number is during COVID, it actually went down to 0. We've been building that up. Last year it was around, you know, got up to about 2.5%. Keep in mind, in Seattle, it's going to move around because there's, it's a temporary nature, right? It comes in pretty heavy during the seasonal peak around July, and that can ramp the portfolio up to 7% and then goes back down, you know, around October as they leave. There's inherent cyclicality to that tenant basis.
Got it. And my second question, it relates to the regulatory environment. Obviously, the markets that you operate in have gotten increasingly difficult, whether it's rent control, Prop 13, you know, Seattle and Washington State potentially becoming an issue. Maybe can you, can you walk through kind of like your updated thoughts around this? Then, you know, whether you would look to diversify your portfolio over time, just given the more challenging operating environments. Thanks.
great question, and I'll handle that one. You know, yes, we have been maybe a little bit surprised as to how aggressive some of these actions are. We have a pretty strong advocacy effort that is driven by CAA in California and one of the local groups up in the Washington area. So we spend a lot of time working with those organizations and trying to advocate against those policies. Almost always, those policies are sold on the basis of being good for the housing industry, and when of course, we all know that in fact is exactly 100% wrong. It's the exact opposite.
Unfortunately, it's something that we have to deal with, and it is concerning to us, and we spend a lot of time on it. The proposal in Washington is still very early on in the process. It's in the House, and it hasn't come out of committees. As a result of that, I think there's still a long way to go. Again, we will be monitoring that. But all of these different proposals, you know, tend to make California less appealing to a landlord and increase the risk of that occurrence. To your point about other markets, I think I wanna reiterate what I said before, which is, you know, we are tracking more markets now, you know, 25 major metros across the country. We are looking for specific things.
You know, the things that essentially attracted us to California 30 years ago, let's say, trying to rank those markets in terms of appeal and whether they can compete with the California markets. You know, we've have some interest in some of them. I don't wanna get into great detail at this point in time. As I've said before, and I think actually this last couple of quarters has played this out, that why this is important, it's about timing, and it's about, you know, making a shift at the appropriate time when our cost to capital is appealing, and we can enter at a point where we can feel like, you know, rent growth is gonna continue.
If in any of the markets across the country, including our market, San Diego, notably Orange County, et cetera, if you get 30%-40% rent increases, you're gonna have a lot of supply that will hit, and you just can't keep growing. The markets become unaffordable. The average person can't afford the rent in that location. That causes people to move further out to find more affordable housing. The markets, in a certain sense, have a self-correcting mechanism in them. This has always been the case. It's true here. It's true everywhere. We're going to thoughtfully, you know, make that decision at the appropriate time. Does that help?
That was really helpful. Congratulations, everyone.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of John Pawlowski with Green Street. Please proceed with your question.
Thanks for the time. Adam, I wanted to follow up on your transaction market comments. Just curious how you see the depth of the bid at the cap rates you throw out there. If you brought a substantial number of assets to the market, do you think they would trade in those mid to high four cap rates you'd suggest?
We're still seeing a gap between the bid and the ask. We are seeing I'd say a muted volume of deals going down in that mid to high fours. Yes. If we got back to, I'd say, kinda normal volume, I think that's where we shake out today.
Okay. Just so I understand, those cap rates, are those kind of initial buyer cap rates, or are those your disposition yields?
For Anavia specifically, what we quoted in the, in the statement was disposition yield. What I'm saying, the mid to high 4s, that's more of a buyer cap rate.
Last question for me. Just Angela, curious for your thoughts on just the topic of just COVID impacts fully reversing. you know, as COVID's in the rear view mirror, would you expect market rents in any of your Southern California markets that have seen huge cumulative rent growth to actually see absolute declines in market rents over the next few years?
Well, keep in mind that, you know, market rent growth is a function of demand and supply. At this point, even looking out the next couple of years, supply is still relatively muted in Southern California. Pre-COVID, in a pre-COVID environment, Southern California performed really well. You know, Southern California has similar employer base as the broader U.S. market. That's why we like it. It's less volatile, but it has a higher level of professional services, so better earning power. For that reason, Southern California continues to be a stable. We wouldn't expect that because of COVID, you know, absent of that, it's going to just suddenly fall apart.
Okay. Thanks for the time.
Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Powell with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Hi, good morning. Just a question on the impact of return to work on the outlook in on the West Coast. A lot of the technology firms have announced its office space rationalization, you know, office space sales. Could that be a headwind for rent growth the next couple of years if even if you have higher job growth, fewer people are in the cities because they're doing more hybrid work as these firms kinda reduce their footprints?
Yeah. Anthony, it's Mike here. You know, most of our portfolio actually is suburban in nature, so we have, you know, relatively little in the cities. But we're thinking that, you know, return to office is something that will slowly evolve and there will be, you know, maybe we go from an average of two days a week in the office to three days a week in the office, and anything that is more office-centric will pull people closer to our apartment communities. That would be a positive impact in our view. At this point in time, because people have moved farther from the offices and, you know, that has caused us to readjust sort of our template for looking for potential acquisitions and other things.
Over time, I think that, all of us, including I'd say here at Essex, you know, we have some of these same issues that, we're better off, we're more productive, we make better decisions when we're together, as a management group, senior leadership group. Super important to the overall results of the company. We think that return to office will be ultimately a tailwind.
Thanks. Maybe 1 more in terms of dispositions and buybacks. You know, you made some good progress there last year. Do you think if buyer to seller starts to agree that you can maybe increase the buyback amount year over year as you sell more assets?
Yeah, this is Barb. You know, we'll assess that based on deal volume and whether we can create NAV and FFO per share. It's hard for me to tell you right now that we can do that in this environment. It is something that we're cognizant of. We have shown that we can run the machine in reverse many times over many different cycles. We'll be willing to do that if the right opportunities present themselves.
All right. Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho. Please proceed with your question.
Hey, good morning out there. Mike, congratulations on a fantastic career and all the best to your next chapter, and best of luck, Angela. I just had a couple of follow-up questions left here on our list. I guess first I wanna go back to expenses. Barb, I think you mentioned controllable expenses. You're expecting to be up 4% this year as part of the 5% guide, which I think is higher than a lot of us expected. Maybe can you go through a bit more of the building blocks of that 5% expense growth? And maybe if there's any contrast versus, say, Seattle, which doesn't have the Prop 13 benefit that California does, and if there's any benefit from the rollout of the property collections model you mentioned earlier. Thanks.
Yeah, Haendel. On the expense growth, the 5%, really the biggest driver of that is non-controllables. That's up 5.5%-6%. Really the key factors are in utilities. We're up 10% this year. We do expect high single digit increases next year. Insurance is expected to be up 20% next year. This is a very difficult insurance market. On real estate taxes, we've budgeted a 4.25% increase, and that's really being driven by Seattle reverting more to our historical norms. Those are the key building blocks on the non-controllable piece. On the controllable piece, 4% at the midpoint, and we do expect admin to be up only 3%.
Once again, we do have elevated eviction costs in that line, which is masking some of the benefits from the rollout of the Central Services or the property collections model that we rolled out last year that centralized some of those functions. It's masking it a little bit this year. Overall, that should give you the major building blocks for why we have a little bit elevated expense growth.
No, that's helpful. I appreciate that. Just so we're clear, how much impact in a more normalized environment would that property collections platform have?
I said the eviction costs are about a 1% impact to controllable, so that's the factor you can use. It would be 1% lower.
Appreciate it. What's the assumption built into the guide for turnover this year and year-end occupancy?
Occupancy we've assumed is stable for year-over-year, flat, no change there. In terms of turnover, we did see elevated turnover in the fourth quarter. Given the eviction headwinds that we expect to face in getting the delinquent units back, we do expect turnover to be a little bit more elevated than historical norms. It's good 'cause then we get tenants in that are paying rent. We think that's actually a good thing.
Okay. That's all for me. Thank you again.
Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.
Great, thank you. I just wanna go back to a comment you made early in the call about distressed acquisition opportunities coming up with some owners with floating rate debt. Can you talk more about what you're seeing, the magnitude, and, you know, do you think that's gonna be something that grows as an opportunity set?
Hey, Jamie, this is Adam. We haven't seen much of that to date. It's more on the structured finance platform where we're seeing more opportunities on existing deals with maturing debt or with some expiring rate caps. We do think this will accelerate into the year and provide potentially more opportunities. Like I said, probably more focus on the structured finance platform versus acquisitions, looking at it from every angle.
Okay. I guess sticking with structured finance, you know, the impairments you took, you know, how should we think about that, you know, the risk profile of those investments versus the rest of the book or, you know, even deals going forward? Like, was that just kinda at the higher end of your risk profile, or the market conditions really just changed that quickly that led to the impairments?
I would say it's the latter. We didn't change our underwriting on that investment. We didn't go out wider on the risk spectrum or the curve. It really is a function of the Oakland market, highly concessionary. The developer wanted to sell, and we ultimately agreed to the sale. Now, keep in mind, we actually made money on our investment for shareholders. We invested $11.5 million in this project, and we got redeemed $14 million. We made 7% annually for our shareholders. The coupon was 10, we didn't quite earn what we thought we were gonna earn, but we thought it was in the best interest of shareholders to take our money back and redeploy elsewhere. We didn't lose money.
I think it is a unique function of that market right now, given I think there's 16 lease ups in the market right now.
Okay. Finally, just thinking about, you know, just in terms of the moratoriums, like how much of that is actually baked into your guidance, the upside, potential upside from, L.A. and Alameda County?
What we have in our guidance is we do assume that gross delinquency will continue to trend down throughout the year as we are able to recapture our delinquent units. Right now we have about 3% of our units are delinquent. That's down from 5% at the start of the year of 2022. And we expect that to continue to trend down. By the back half of the year, we expect to be in the 1.5% or lower range for the second half of the year. It is a function of the guidance. We have baked that in, that we'll get more of our units back this year.
Okay. In terms of the revenue upside, you also have that in.
Well-
I'm just thinking if maybe they get extended past March thirty-first, is that a downside risk to the guidance or no?
We don't see that as being a downside risk. Keep in mind the what Mike said earlier about L.A. County, which is the new eviction moratorium. It's actually more strict than L.A. City was. We don't see that being a hindrance to us. In addition, we have, you know, we are making progress. It just, it's taking a little longer than we expected. We don't see that as a significant downside at this point.
Okay, great. Thank you.
There are no further questions in the queue. I'd like to hand the call back to management for closing remarks.
Thank you, operator. I wanna thank everyone for joining us today. hope to see many of you at the Citi conference, and we definitely appreciate all the well-wishing, for Angela and me. I wanna note that it's been a absolute honor to work with so many of you. Have a great day. Thank you for joining.
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.
Goodbye.
Have a wonderful day.