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BancAnalysts Association of Boston Conference 2024

Nov 8, 2024

Moderator

Good morning, everyone. Next up, we have Fifth Third, with roots going back to 1858 in Cincinnati. Fifth Third is a bank that's as long on innovation as it is on history, with assets today of $214 billion. The company's regional footprint is in the Midwest and the Southeast, with over 1,000 branches. They have a top-10 market share and 96% of the retail footprint, and with a focus on, again, the Midwest and the Southeast. Speaking of the Southeast, household growth there was 6% last quarter. The company is expected to open 19 branches in the Southeast this quarter and accelerate that growth going forward. We'll talk about that more in a bit. And I also should mention Commercial Payments, their top-5 market share in several products. Newline, which is their embedded payments platform, continues to expand its offerings and add partnerships.

On my far left, representing the company, Jamie Leonard, Chief Operating Officer. He took on that role in 2024. Before that, Jamie was CFO, Chief Risk Officer, and Treasurer. And to my immediate left, Bryan Preston, Chief Financial Officer today, took on that position just in January. And before that, he was Treasurer of the company. So we'll kick it off with Jamie and some prepared remarks, and then transition to Q&A.

Jamie Leonard
COO, Fifth Third

Thank you, Terry, and good morning, everyone. I hope you are all doing well, and I'm excited to discuss Fifth Third's strategy and the resulting benefits of what appears to be the topic of the week of pursuing density in retail banking. I have always enjoyed attending BAAB, as it permits us more time to discuss selected topics in more depth. I've also enjoyed your sense of humor in giving Bryan Preston the smallest chair in the history of conference circuit chairs, so we'll see how this goes. Last year, I talked about the strength of our deposit gathering franchise coming out of March Madness. Today, I'm pleased to talk about our Southeast branch expansion, which began over five years ago and has been one of several catalysts for our best-in-class deposit growth.

To us, the Southeast expansion is a great example of our strategic investments to better position our franchise for long-term growth. Furthermore, given our strong results, we will be doubling down on our Southeast branch builds from 25 per year, as Terry mentioned that we're doing this year, to 50 or more per year, starting in 2025 through 2028. Now, let's talk about the power of these investments. For those of you that have followed the Fifth Third story for some time, you already know that our original entry into the Southeast began with bank acquisitions during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Then, our Southeast investments stopped with the financial crisis, and post-GFC years gave us an opportunity to assess how our market position and tactics impacted success in individual markets.

It was a great opportunity to learn the value of density and how much density is necessary to win. Consistently, we have found that when we can reach an 8% or so location share in a market, which typically equates to a top-5 position, we begin to see significant network effects benefiting individual branch performance. We see more profitable branches, higher average lifetime value for customer relationships, and better growth in deposits. Additionally, the brand awareness also carries over to improvements in the performance of our wealth and commercial middle-market businesses. These findings have led us to focus on local market density versus national scale, and as you can see, has led to our number two deposit market share growth in the Midwest. Moving to slide five, in banking, competitive barriers are difficult to achieve and typically come from identifying new opportunities and investing continuously, especially when competitors are not.

Since 2017, we have consistently invested in our branch network, opening 119 branches in the Southeast at a time when market interest rates were near zero and investments in low-cost granular retail deposit gathering capabilities were out of favor. We recognize that to grow consistently at a pace faster than the banking industry, we needed to position our branch footprint to benefit from the significant population growth in the Southeast, which has grown at two to three times the rate of the rest of the United States and six times faster than the Midwest. As a result of these investments, we've improved our branch distribution from having one-fifth of our locations in the Southeast to now one-third of our branches are located in the Southeast, including 94 branches in the Carolinas. Consequently, our footprint's weighted average population growth is expected to be 2.7%.

Turning to slide six, the benefits of these investments are evident in this year's FDIC summary of deposits. In the Southeast MSAs where we compete, we gain share in 15 of the 16 markets. While we remained in the number six position across these markets, we significantly closed the gap on number five. Since 2017, we have improved to the number five position in North Carolina and Florida, grown significantly in Georgia, and entered South Carolina on a purely de novo basis. We found savings in our legacy Midwest branch network by executing two-for-one branch closures, where we closed two older branches and opened a new branch with smaller square footage that is designed for the changing needs of our customers.

This helped fund the Southeast investments while achieving above-market growth and maintaining both our Midwest locational share above 8% and number two deposit dollar share in the Midwest, behind only J.P. Morgan. As the table shows, we capture an extra 2.2% of deposit dollar share over branch location share in the Midwest, and that is a significant opportunity for us to replicate in the Southeast. Moving to slide seven, our Southeast branch expansion is the second largest among all banks and nearly three times greater than our closest peer. Our results to date have exceeded our expectations. We model that a de novo branch will be break-even within three years, cumulatively break-even within five, and continue to grow deposits at an above-market rate for approximately seven years. The deposit growth of our new branches has consistently outperformed our modeling, as well as the peer average for new branches.

With 30% of our Southeast branch network opened in the last five years, we will continue to see substantial deposit growth from the seasoning of these investments for years to come. Turning to slide eight, we like to say that we didn't build 100 branches. Rather, we built one branch 100 times. Over the next four years, we will do it 200 more times. We have learned a lot each time we open a branch, and as a result, we are really, really good at de novo banking. Through years of testing and learnings, we have built a systematic framework for driving de novo success. This is not a Field of Dreams. If you build it, they will come business. It is both difficult and complex.

We begin by using our proprietary Market Strength Index to select the next MSA for expansion and a proprietary geospatial heat map to identify the most attractive locations within a city. Our heat map uses thousands of variables and trillions of data points and has even won an award for advancing geospatial science. We are very disciplined in targeting the site that we want, and we have built a well-oiled machine that allows us to lock down targeted sites quickly. In one market that we decided to enter, within six months, we had over 75% of our targeted sites under contract, and the rest were under initial negotiations. We often find ourselves competing with a trillionaire bank or a major coffee chain for the same piece of real estate.

Our experience and speed have given us a competitive advantage that many will have to learn, and that will take some time. The right-side graph reflects our improvements in our branch network scoring of our individual locations. Since I like golf, this is like golf. One is perfect. Seven is the max score on a hole. As you can see, we continue to make improvements to what is the best network score in our peer group. Turning to slide nine, once the site is selected, we construct our next-gen branch, which is 40% smaller than older branches. The next-gen design offers customers multiple options for conducting business, ranging from a casual open environment to spaces more suitable for private conversations. As construction nears completion, we deploy our de novo playbook to ensure each branch has trained staff and marketing support.

Proprietary machine learning models power marketing support and our customer recommendation engine, which prioritizes customer outreach in our MyDay proprietary banker portal and offers in our digital channels. We also focus on tech-led product innovation. Fifth Third Momentum Banking combines the best of fintech and traditional banking. Digital adoption continues to be very strong compared to peers. Becoming a great deposit franchise did not happen overnight. It is the result of consistent strategic investments, best-in-class proprietary analytics, product innovation, and years of hard work and lessons learned. Slide 10 highlights the efficiency of our branch network, and I'll admit I probably made this slide overly complicated, so bear with me as I walk you through it. On the left, the graph shows the average deposit dollars in millions per branch. In total, the average deposits of Fifth Third Midwest branches are greater than all but one of our peers.

However, our retail network is really a barbell, with high deposits per branch in the Midwest and lower deposits per branch in the Southeast. The chart on the right then shows the percentage of a bank's branches that have less than $50 million in deposits. That is a cut line for us that we view as if you're under $50 million, it will ultimately not be a productive, sustainable branch. Again, our network is barbell, with only 8% of our Midwest branches having fewer than $50 million in deposits, but our Southeast network has over one-third of the branches with less than $50 million. However, the critical point here, the median age of those Southeast branches is only five years. Given their age, we expect continued above-market growth for these branches as they season and as we add to the network.

When you look at the age of other branch networks, there are more than many 20-plus-year-old networks with still a substantial amount of branches with less than $50 million in deposits, which is interesting. Slide 11 attempts to quantify the intersection of branch age and performance. Since our network is newer than our peers, with 8.5% of branches less than five years old, you could expect a 6% or $8 billion increase in total deposits as these branches season and perform consistent with the rest of our network. This opportunity is roughly four times the peer average, given the peers' older branch network. As I mentioned, over the next four years, we plan to double our investment pace by opening 50-60 branches annually in the Southeast.

We will complete the build-out of our existing markets and enter 11 new MSAs, including adding two Alabama markets to our retail footprint. By the end of 2028, nearly half of our branch network will be in the Southeast, and we expect to be in the fifth position in terms of locational share. When you bring it all together, the 200-plus new de novos, the seasoning of the current network, and increasing density driving share gains, the resulting growth in deposits from the future investments in our branch network will reach $15-$20 billion of additional deposits over the next seven years. In summary, we are set up to continue to deliver strong growth in consumer households and granular retail insured deposits.

This foundation for our balance sheet, combined with diverse and growing revenue streams, disciplined expense and credit management, and consistent strategic investments, positions us to generate strong and stable capital accretion, top quartile profitability, and long-term shareholder value. With that, Bryan and I are happy to take your questions.

Moderator

Thank you, Jamie. We'll start with a question for you. What are the key characteristics you look for in a new market? And sticking with the theme for the conference of scale, what does it take to achieve scale in some of those newer markets?

Jamie Leonard
COO, Fifth Third

Yeah, thanks for the question, Terry. When we look at where to expand, there are a couple of factors that go into it. One is the demographic data supporting the region. Obviously, the Southeast is a very productive region of the country from a population growth perspective. The underlying economic activity within each of the MSAs. We also look at the population migration within a select region. We use cell phone data, IRS information to evaluate how people move. And because we believe that density is so important, ensuring that you are covering all aspects of where someone works, where someone lives, and where someone shops is critically important. So that is the main driver from the retail perspective, but we also evaluate where to put branches to support our commercial wholesale business. And so that's the primary driver of the expansion in Alabama.

We have a strong middle market team in Alabama, and a branch network will help deliver more value to both the commercial business and the consumer business.

Moderator

You mentioned earlier you have Midwest peers, Mid-Atlantic peers also expanding in the Southeast. How much are you seeing them in the market? Are you starting to bump into them when you look at new sites?

Jamie Leonard
COO, Fifth Third

So, one reason we waited till this conference, Bryan, Tim, and I, at the start of the year when we were conducting the rotations into our new roles, we're looking at how do we really deliver strong growth to our shareholders. And given how good we are at de novos, that's when we made the decision to double our de novo expansion. At that point in time, we started identifying the sites, and we have already locked in 115 of the 200-plus sites. So essentially, 2025 and 2026 locations are already in flight. So for us, we're not going to be bumping into anybody else, at least for the next two years, as they pursue their branch expansion plans. And overall, just given how successful we've been with our de novo strategies, competition is a good thing, and we look forward to it.

Moderator

Perfect. Question for Bryan. You had one of the higher deposit betas during the rate hike cycle. How are deposits tracking after the September hike? What are your thoughts after yesterday's news? And just overall, how are deposit balances holding up?

Bryan Preston
CFO, Fifth Third

Yeah, we're very pleased with what we're seeing from a deposit performance perspective at this point. Obviously, still a lot to figure out in terms of yesterday's deposits or yesterday's rate cut and seeing where things go from here. But as we talked about on the earnings call, we're delivering initially 40s, 50% betas on the consumer deposits and commercial deposits and feel really good about that. From a balance perspective, deposits are continuing to grow. We continue to be up deposits relative to where we were for the September rate cut, and we continue to feel very well positioned in terms of how we're executing. We've seen market competition come off, which is obviously something we were expecting as the rate cuts were to occur. In general, now we're seeing kind of low 4s, 4.5% in the Southeast from a market competition perspective.

In the Midwest, it has been a little bit below that. There are some unique spots where you see some pretty interesting competitive behaviors right now. We have seen a competitor in the Midwest with a 4.5% offer that they or a 5.4% offer that they held for some time. We've seen some interesting things in the commercial space as well. We had a large competitor, a trillionaire bank, that did not cut rates for a particular customer with the September rate cut, told them they were going to hold it through the end of the quarter. That created some competition, but then the dollars came back to us immediately when they then did cut the rates at the end of the quarter.

So it is an interesting environment for us to continue to navigate, but we feel very good about what we're executing, and the balance performance continues to be very strong.

Moderator

And then the deposit growth in the Southeast led to an elevated liquidity position. How long do you think? How long do you see yourself maintaining that position? And what's a longer-term appropriate cash balance for Fifth Third?

Bryan Preston
CFO, Fifth Third

Yeah, pre-financial crisis or sorry, pre-COVID, we were typically targeting around $2 billion of cash on hand on an overnight basis. We think that number is probably closer to $10 billion now. $8-$10 billion is how we're looking at the world. There's a couple of components to that. One is we are holding on a little bit extra liquidity because of the environment, and we want to be in a position where we can allow some of those dollars that are less productive to roll off the balance sheet if they don't make sense. We had one customer that wants to continue to be paid above where Fed funds is today. It's like that kind of scenario doesn't make sense.

We want to be in a position to be able to rationalize our deposit cost, and that means being willing to let some of those dollars go away where they're not productive for your balance sheet. Those tend to not be persistent situations, and that's where that excess cash comes in. The other component is our investment portfolio. We feel very good about the structure of the portfolio and the performance of it. The bullet locked-out structures that we've been invested in for years continue to roll in and perform as expected. But when we entered into the portfolio, it wasn't designed in the context of an LCR framework. We are LCR compliant today. The cash is part of that. As we rebalance the investment portfolio over time, that is another component that's going to allow us to take the cash down.

Moderator

Moving on to the healthier consumers, what are you seeing in your deposit data as it relates to the consumer?

Jamie Leonard
COO, Fifth Third

So we've talked in the past that from pre-COVID levels, then into COVID, the consumer had a lot of excess liquidity, and that liquidity has been steadily coming down. Today, on average, the consumer is about where they were pre-COVID. However, as we've also talked in the past, from analyzing the deposit book and the characteristics of the customers in the deposit books, homeowners continue to do very well and have more liquidity on hand. And we've started measuring it in a number of days cash on hand to cover the spending being dispersed out of the checking account. And for homeowners, that is running six to seven weeks of liquidity. Whereas with renters and the challenges they've been facing with higher inflation, renters we're finding have enough cash on hand to cover spending habits for one to two weeks.

And so that continues to be a theme in the deposit book that the renters are holding less cash and are below pre-COVID levels. And then when you go to the left-hand side of the balance sheet, that's why our lending in the consumer space is so heavily focused on homeowners.

Moderator

Okay. And your fourth quarter guidance for average loan growth stable to up 1%. What will be the catalyst for those borrowers? We've had rate cuts. The elections now are behind us. What are your thoughts there?

Bryan Preston
CFO, Fifth Third

Those were two big items when we talked to our customers that was important. From a rates perspective, when we were surveying our customers, and we're in the market quite often to talk to them as a leadership team, in addition to the regional teams that we have out in the market, typically what we're hearing is 100-150 basis points from a rates perspective would put people in a position where they would feel better about investing. We're about halfway there now. Our belief is that you're probably going to get another quarter cut, maybe in December, maybe in early next year. We think the Fed's probably going to do 100-125 basis points of total cuts and then potentially pause and see what happens.

And that is in line with ultimately what the customers are saying from what they need to see from a growth to actually continue to think about investing in growth. The election was clearly something that was important for the customers as well. And so a lot of clarity now on what the administration is potentially going to look like. I think the expectation is that it should be a little bit more business-friendly environment. So that should be something that gives some incentive for customers to think about it's time to start investing. From our perspective, we are cautious around the fiscal situation still and what it means from a long rate perspective. We are cautious that inflation could potentially come back.

If long rates were to move up further, that would be something that would potentially be a crosswind that would counterbalance some of the benefits that people were expecting out of the election.

Moderator

Maybe one more question, and then we'll open it up to the audience. We've talked about both sides of the balance sheet. Are you positioned for record net interest income in 2025? And how should we think about the repricing of fixed rate assets, which have helped 2024? How much of a benefit do you get next year?

Bryan Preston
CFO, Fifth Third

Yeah, we would expect the fixed rate asset benefits to continue. The fact that the curve has actually steepened quite a bit since quarter end is certainly something that's helpful for us. We tend to see about, say, 10 basis points a quarter increase in the runoff portfolio. So that does compress that benefit over time. When we gave guidance in the third quarter, at the end of the third quarter, the rate scenario certainly showed more compression because we were expecting rates to go down further from here. But the higher rates from here for what's a $4 billion-$5 billion of fixed rate asset repricing every quarter, that for the last several quarters has generated a $20 million sequential quarter benefit.

We do expect that to compress some, but we expect it to persist as long as the curve continues to provide those opportunities where we don't have the significant inversion that we were seeing earlier this year, so we feel good about that. Overall, the quarters continue to perform well, coming together nicely. We feel really good about the guidance that we gave and how we're performing and we feel good about how we're positioned for next year. Certainly, with the curve shape and potential pickup in activity, we're going to have a really strong and high outlook for 2025.

Moderator

Questions? Hold on one second.

Thanks. Hey, Jamie, Bryan. When you think about the buildout in the Southeast from an organic perspective, in the prior presentation, they talked about valuations to acquire not making sense at this point. Maybe just talk a little bit about how you think about build versus buy within the Southeast.

Bryan Preston
CFO, Fifth Third

Yeah, it's something that we talk about a lot every day, trying to make sure that we're thinking about it the right way and we're making the right decisions. As Jamie highlighted, we're delivering 20% IRRs on the branches and the de novo effort, and we're able to actually put a lot of capital to work over time and build out the branch franchise in the exact locations that we want and acquiring the people that we want and kind of continuing to deliver the Fifth Third culture from a retail perspective, and then also building the size of the branches that we want, so for us, the bar is really high on that front.

When you think about the execution risk that you're taking in an acquisition, making sure that you have cultural alignment, and then really understanding what you're acquiring from a credit risk perspective in someone else's portfolio. We've obviously always been very cautious on CRE, and there's a lot of CRE risk in some of those Southeast organizations. And so we have a duty, obviously, for our shareholders to monitor the markets and making sure that we're evaluating where are the best opportunities for us. But right now, the de novo and the middle market expansion, all the things that we're doing to organically grow are delivering such strong returns that we don't feel like we need to stretch and take the execution risk that we see right now in the M&A market.

Manan Gosalia
Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sorry. Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley. Jamie, you spoke about higher competition in the Southeast markets. In addition to the broader branch footprint, do you have to offer anything from a rate structure or structure perspective? I think you answered the question on the deposit side, that deposit rates are a little bit higher in the Southeast, but anything you need to do on the lending side to generate more growth there?

Jamie Leonard
COO, Fifth Third

Yeah, our strategy with the de novo build is primarily focused on developing good retail granular insured deposit growth. And so within our deposit book, just to touch on that for a moment, our deposit book from a consumer perspective inclusive of CDs in the Southeast is about 240 basis points. Our consumer rates paid in the Midwest is about 140 basis points. So I don't know that that is as much about the competition as it is the difference between having 4% locational share and 9% locational share. That is the cost of doing business with the Fed at five. A 240 deposit book is pretty good profitability.

On the lending side, certainly within consumer, and one of the things I really love about consumer is that every activity or product stands alone on a unit economic basis, unlike commercial where it is a relationship-based pricing and you need to have treasury management, capital markets, and all of those things that we are very good at, but you still need to get it. Whereas on the consumer side, if you are able to originate a credit card to the customer, that is the most profitable product after the DDA. And we don't do promotional offers on the credit card. However, we do try to engage with the client two days, two weeks, two months after they've opened the checking account. On home equity, you've seen the past couple of quarters, we've actually increased our home equity balances.

It might be the first time in 10 years that's actually happened. So we do have nice home equity expectations going forward. So from a branch originated standpoint, those would be the two products on the left-hand side that we have opportunity to do better.

Moderator

Your geospatial heat map? Did you design that? So, I mean, is it underlevered? Is that an underlevered asset? How much importance do you place on that in winning the Southeast? And why couldn't a trillionaire bank, as you described them, reproduce this? So, okay, you've had success. So why can't someone else do that?

Jamie Leonard
COO, Fifth Third

So number one, I did not design it. That should make all of you feel much better. We have a very good decision sciences group that built this 10 years ago and that we continue to evolve as new data becomes available in the world we live in. I am sure the trillionaires have similar models. When we go to market to get a site, we beat the trillionaires because we move quickly. We know what we want. We have the site. We're just nimble when it comes to locking down a site. When it comes to competing against other regional banks that want to pursue branch expansion in a market, I do think we have better data to help inform our decisions.

When we look at the page I talked about with the golf scores and the consistent improvement in the tiering, and I will in intellectual honesty say that it's like my fantasy football team. I put it on auto draft and the computer says I drafted the best team possible. So this is our own scoring of our peer branch networks, but our scoring system says we have the best branch network, and it will continue to get better with this expansion.

Jamie, a couple of questions. One, can you talk a little bit about what's going on with sort of remix within the legacy Midwest market branch footprint as well? Like when does, is there a point where the next-gen branch just sort of becomes the branch? That's number one. And then number two, I think you all have sort of selectively expanded with, say, commercial teams outside the Southeast as well. Ultimately, is the aspiration going to be similar to what you do in the Southeast, or are those idiosyncratic enough circumstances that they'll remain sort of commercial lending focused, period?

The second question is easier, which is where it makes sense, we will expand our perimeter to include a branch network where we have those commercial offices. That has been a key to our success, and the South Carolina expansion is an example, and now with Alabama, but we don't have plans to be a national retail distribution. Our belief is density, and that's how we are a little different than all the announcements this week. I think has been our focus is let's be the deepest, most dense branch network in the markets we compete. We don't want to be a top 10 position in 50 markets. We would like to be a top three position in 25 markets. The first part of the question in terms of the Midwest, what we've been doing is essentially recycling the Midwest branches and adapting to the world we live in.

By the end of the first quarter of 2025, we'll have closed 300 branches in the Midwest, and we'll use that money to continue to pay for the expansion in the Southeast. But what has really changed with the next-gen branch design has been 1,900-sq-ft branch. The 119 branches that we built, on average, we spent $3.3 million on the brick and mortar. You can't replicate at those prices today because COVID, inflation, etc., but $3.3 million, not counting land or lease cost. So within the branch itself, it has really morphed from being a service center to being a sales center. And so that's why we like that next-gen approach. We will continue to refurbish branches in the Midwest. We're now at an 8.7% location share in the Midwest, and I think that's a good place to be. I wouldn't want to go much lower than that.

I would just expect to see some two-for-ones or one-for-ones where you reposition the network. And as Bryan said, when you get to M&A, that's why we like building our own. We get exactly what we want where we want it. And I guess the last data point I'll throw out there, I think it's two-thirds of our customer activity is all digitized. So you really don't have the foot traffic in the branches like you used to have in terms of conducting that service transaction. But that's why the MyDay program is so powerful, where every day a banker comes in and is getting the information they need to have a good conversation with you to talk about, is there a product need that you should consider? Or if you've called our call center twice in the past month, follow up with you.

Is everything okay? And that, frankly, is one of the reasons why we were number one J.D. Power in the state of Florida. It is hard to get number one J.D. Power in a state where you have scale. We have 187 branches in Florida.

Bryan Preston
CFO, Fifth Third

Yeah, one thing I'd add to that too is you think about, especially the chart we showed on some of the age of the branch networks. We are going to stay focused on making sure that our locations are where economic activity is happening today. When you think about how cities have changed over the last 30, 40 years to see some folks whose networks are on average 30 to 40 years old, are you in the right spot for where business and opportunities are going to be today?

Moderator

I have a question about the origins or the genesis of this location share theme. As Gerard will attest, I've been coming to these things for way too long, and every five or seven years, there seems to be a theme that multiple banks latch onto, and location share has come up several times during this conference, and I'm just curious, is that coming out of a McKinsey study or some consultant study? And I ask that because we come to these things and we'll see slides that say checking accounts are up 125%, DDAs are up 500%, and then you look at earnings and they're up 3%, and so the question is, what sort of return? I mean, if you're going to generate $7 billion of new deposits because your location share has improved, is there a return on that deposit that we should be imputing in our models?

So, the origin and then the returns.

Jamie Leonard
COO, Fifth Third

The origin, Matt, if you put it on slide six, our data over the last decade of modeling highlights, and this is the proof point here in that table. If you look at the density of branch networks, whether it's Fifth Third's or any of the regional banks, where a bank is above 8% on location share, it's like 95% of the time. They will have more deposit dollar share as a result of that network strength. Our data proves it out, and you see it right here in the Midwest, we're at 11% dollar share with only 8% location share. In terms of how you should model it going forward, part of the challenge on retail is what's the value of that deposit as the rate environment changes?

We believe, as Bryan mentioned, that the Fed is going to be a little bit higher on the front end than perhaps people had originally expected six, nine months ago, and therefore, the retail deposit ought to have a little more value, but in the month of October, at a 5% Fed funds rate and paying 240 or 140 for the deposit, just model that type of spread with the beta based on your own rate forecast, and that would get you to how we view it. Now, with that said, Bryan's FTP rates on deposits could be a lot higher, and I would appreciate that.

Bryan Preston
CFO, Fifth Third

No, and I think the important thing here is the foundation of our retail deposit franchise. And you can see the strength of it in the legacy Midwest. That has been a big driver of the profitability of the company. And when you think about, you look at the last several years, we've seen a pretty volatile rate environment. You've seen liquidity concerns at institutions, and retail insured deposits and doing it the right way is such a factor in driving profitability for a bank. And so for us to be able to position and have a stronger franchise with faster growing demographics, it allows us to continue to grow at a good pace and deliver a leading efficiency ratio.

We're targeting a 55% long-term efficiency ratio, strong long-term returns, because you got to have those stable retail deposits to couple with a good middle market lending and a diversified retail lending platform to deliver those kinds of returns over time.

Moderator

I think with that, we'll wrap it up. Thank you both.

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