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Barclays 18th Annual Global Consumer Staples Conference 2025

Sep 4, 2025

Moderator

... If you just find our seats, we'll kick off our first fireside chat of the day. Good morning and welcome back to our fireside chat with Flowers Foods. With us today are Chairman and CEO Ryals McMullen, and CFO and CAO Steve Kinsey. Welcome to you both. Thanks for being here.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Thanks. Thank you.

Moderator

Great. First off, maybe Ryals, you know, we've heard a lot about the last couple of days, right, about the challenges currently facing sort of the consumer. You operate in a bit of a unique category, so I'm interested in hearing your perspective as far as what you're seeing from the consumer sort of at this stage.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yeah, I mean, really, you know, more broadly, nothing really different than what everybody else is seeing.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

You know, the consumer's still pressured, you know, concerned about inflation, job market-

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... et cetera. So it's really, it's really no different for, for us. Our category is a little bit unique, you know, in the sense that there's a lot of private label in our category, that has, you know, kind of been in a long-term decline, but typically sees a bit of a pop when, you know, when there's economic uncertainty, and that's, that's normal.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

That happens, you know, virtually every time, you know, we see an environment like this.

Moderator

Yeah. And maybe, what are some of the headwinds that you're sort of seeing that are impacting the bread category specifically?

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yeah.

Moderator

More importantly, how are you sort of responding and, you know, to some of those challenges?

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yeah, I mean, for us, it's really, you know, speaking broadly, two things: the economic uncertainty that we just talked about-

Moderator

Mm-hmm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... not unusual to see a little trade-down going on there, but then the whole health and wellness-

Moderator

Mm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... issue as well. Bread's kind of getting a bad rap right now.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

A lot of influencers and-

Moderator

Mm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... celebrities and whatnot, kind of giving bread a bad name.

Moderator

Taylor Swift is helping, though, so sourdough focused, but yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Exactly, exactly. And the consumers are just really, really fragmented. We were talking yesterday about Instagram, just, I mean, has basically become, you know, a selling platform. And, you know, if you have a feed like mine, you know, there's, you know, many different kinds of breads that are rolling through-

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... that you can order, you know, into your home or sourdoughs-

Moderator

Mm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

...that you can bake off at home. So it's hard to... It's become harder to keep the consumer's attention.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

But I think one of the things that's incumbent upon us as an industry, and specifically Flowers as a company, is to retake that narrative, which I think in many ways we've sort of ceded-

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... to the influence of celebrities, and that's, you know, that's our fault as an industry, obviously. But we're intent on recapturing that because there's a lot of misinformation out there-

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... a ton of misinformation. And we have a portfolio of products that are largely better for you.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

We'll continue down that track, continue improving on that, and continue innovating around that, which will also help to mitigate some of the pressures in the category. Diving a little bit deeper into the category, if you look overall, you know, category's been down, you know, 2.5-3%, roughly. But if you drill down a level further and look at the sub-segments-

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... traditional loaf, which means, you know, the 20-ounce honey wheats and other white breads, that part of the category has been down five to six, and we're quite exposed-

Moderator

Mm-hmm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... to that. So that's the bad news. The good news is, is that we are innovating around that and have lots of growth in the portfolio, whether it's our keto products or everybody's familiar with Dave's and Canyon and all that-

Moderator

Mm-hmm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... which, you know, continues to do really, really well. I think the challenge for us is, you know, how do we address that soft variety of white bread category? That's the part that I said on our second quarter call that I think is a generational shift.

Moderator

Yep.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

I could be wrong, I don't think I am, but I don't think it's coming back. I don't mean to say that traditional loaf and white breads are going away, so don't misunderstand me. They're not. There's tons of that sold-

Moderator

Mm-hmm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... in the United States, and that'll continue. I do think over time it will become a smaller part of the category. And so, again, our job is to figure out how to innovate around that and replace that with more differentiated items that have attributes that consumers are looking for.

Moderator

Yeah, I guess if we you know, it's a good lead-in. If we zoom out a little bit, what are your longer-term expectations for the category?

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Just that.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Just that. I mean, and, you know, I think, you know, organics will continue to be a bright spot. You know, we were told for years that gluten-free was a fad and was gonna go away. Well, it never has.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

It's continued to grow and do well. Again, I think the longer-term challenge is to solve for that soft variety aspect. I think that the bread wall, if you will, is gonna change a lot because of that. It's... We talked a lot about this yesterday in our one-on-ones. It's a very difficult category to shop-

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... for consumers. There's a lot of SKUs on the wall.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

It's not organized in a very, intuitive way.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

So take small loaves, for example. Demographic changes in the country, smaller household, people having children later, et cetera, small loaves are a big deal, not just for economic reasons.

Moderator

Mm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... but just for practical reasons. I just don't want that much bread. I want... I like bread, but I want less of it.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Well, I mean, try to find that. You know, it's sprinkled, you know, kind of, kind of everywhere. There's not a lot of facings. And so longer term, I can see a bread wall that has a lot less soft variety and white bread on it-

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... and a lot more of those differentiated-

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... items, but organized in a way that makes it more intuitive for the shopper.

Moderator

Yeah. Have there... I'm just curious on that, have there been any, retailers where you've been able to sort of maybe test a-

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

We're doing that right now.

Moderator

Sort of a different, you know, shelf set?

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yeah.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

There have been a few regionals that are testing it on their own.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Then we're proactively testing it with one of our better-

Moderator

Good

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... retailers. Yeah.

Moderator

So-

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

To sort of see-

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... how things balance out. I mean, I think it'll take... probably a few tries to find the right balance. We're doing it in several different markets.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Larger and smaller market.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

You're trying to capture the differences between the two, but I think we'll get a lot of learnings out of that-

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

that we can then take to others. Yeah.

Moderator

I know the regionals tend to be a little more proactive sometimes, also-

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yeah, they do.

Moderator

to figure it out.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

A little, little more agile.

Moderator

Yep.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yep.

Moderator

Exactly. Well, good. Relating to the competitive environment, I guess, what's been the nature of, you know, some of the new low-price competitors, and is this type of activity something you've experienced in the past? And if so, sort of, what have you learned from that experience?

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yeah, first of all, I'll just say it. This has always been a competitive category. That's not new. You know, margins are thin in this business.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

It's always been pretty tough sledding. You know, and I mentioned the private label trade down earlier, that's totally normal, and that is not among the things I have to worry about, that's not one of them.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

The lower price entrants is a little bit of a change.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Certainly we're addressing that with small loaves and some other things, but that's probably the biggest difference is, you know, branded items that are priced at or even sometimes a little bit below-

Moderator

Mm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... private label. That is also new.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

We're addressing that with, you know, with value offerings for our shoppers, but that too will get better as the economic environment gets better because they're branded, but they're still relatively-

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

- undifferentiated.

Moderator

Got it. That's helpful. I know Flowers has also been sort of pairing and adding distribution-

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Mm-hmm

Moderator

both on the branded retail side of the business and otherwise, in private label and food service and whatnot. I guess, where are we now in that cycle, and how do you think incremental gains and losses in the second half will compare to the first half?

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

So, on the our other category, which is kind of, it's got food service.

Moderator

Mm-hmm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... and private label and all that, you know, some of you will recall, we did a lot of up or out, basically meaning we needed to margin up that business or free up capacity to do other things-

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... primarily, branded. We're done with that. That as a discrete initiative is over.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Now, in those categories, you're always picking up and losing. It's bid-

Moderator

Mm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... or contract business, so but that's normal. But the proactive up or out is sort of done.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

The, you know, the shelf space gains and the new distribution that we're winning in the Midwest, which is a big white space for us, and the Northeast, which is, you know, a growing market for us, where we have lower share than we do in our core, you know, that will continue.

Moderator

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. I know on tariffs have obviously been a big topic of discussion of late. What sort of exposure does Flowers have to tariffs? And I guess, where are you seeing the most pressure, and has anything changed, I guess, versus your sort of prior forecast that may have resulted in a lower impact than you may have initially anticipated?

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

Yeah, I mean, so we get quite a few ingredients internationally.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

I mean, obviously, wheat and flour are wholly domestic, but, things like vital wheat gluten, palm oil, cocoa-

Moderator

Mm-hmm

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

... you know, all that comes in international, so you know, it's pretty impactful, overall. Obviously, when we came out in Q1 with guidance, I'd say we were fairly conservative. I mean, we went to the upper end of the-

Moderator

Mm

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

... you know, the forecast with regard to what we thought the impact would be, and then obviously, it's pulled back quite a bit.

Moderator

Yep.

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

So, you know, that impacted our view for the rest of the year. But, you know, when you look at, you know, the overall kind of tariff bucket, you know, we probably have, let's say, you know, 12 or 15 countries we deal with. So, you know, so far there's been no supply challenge-

Moderator

Mm-hmm

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

... with regard to tariffs, but, you know, it will impact our back half cost.

Moderator

Okay, and then how do you... So, sort of mitigation strategies, I guess one could be some incremental pricing-

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

Mm-hmm.

Moderator

But it's tough in this environment. I guess, do you expect to have to take pricing, or at least in some part, to help mitigate some of these tariff impacts?

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

I mean, you know, we'll look at everything. We're just not gonna comment on pricing going forward. But, you know, in times like this, you look at everything to try to maintain your margins, but, you know, also be mindful of, you know, elasticities, particularly.

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... when you've got a strained consumer.

Moderator

Right. Right. Yep. Earlier this year-

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Mm-hmm

Moderator

... the company announced that it had completed the acquisition of Simple Mills, a natural brand offering premium, sort of better for you crackers, cookies, snack bars, and baking mixes. How's the integration been going? And, you know, has it been in line with expectations, and how do you expect to drive growth in that business going forward?

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yeah. They're doing great. The integration went very, very smoothly. They continue to perform right in line with our expectations, and I say that even though, you know, we kind of got the unexpected hit of tariffs, which, you know, hit them a little bit too. So, despite that, they continue to do well. They're, you know, they lead in all the categories that they play in, in the natural channel, and are competing very well, even with the larger, more traditional players in the, you know, sort of cookie and cracker categories. But, you know, Simple Mills is very clearly on trend. We're really excited about next year for them.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

They had been kind of on a, you know, year on, year off, sort of two-year innovation cycle. 2026 will be their largest innovation year ever. A lot of new introductions coming out. You know, we'll continue to help them gain distribution. That'll be a big piece of the growth puzzle for us, in addition to continuing to innovate around that brand. So all good there.

Moderator

Great. On your second quarter earnings call, you lowered underlying 2025 guidance, excluding Simple Mills, from both the top and the bottom line. I guess, what drove the guidance reduction, and what gives you the confidence that the current guidance is now in a good spot for the balance of the year?

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

I mean, when you look at really the first half, first half performance, you know, I think we have a little more challenge than we were expecting, and then really coming into the, you know, the second quarter, coming out onto the third quarter, continuing to see challenges in the category. So, you know, a lot of it was top-line driven.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

Obviously, there were some benefit from the tariffs. You know, we did-

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... I would say we typically have a pretty strong season in Q2 with Memorial Day and July the Fourth. You know, that wasn't quite as strong as we had forecasted, although I would say it was still good. Obviously, you know, it's a big bun season for us. Just did not come in quite where we had planned. So, you know, just thinking about the consumer, thinking about our cost in the back half, which are, you know, from a comp perspective, are elevated compared to the first half. We just felt like it would be more prudent to, you know, to bring guidance down and, you know, tighten the reins a little bit.

Moderator

Got it. I wanna touch a bit on innovation. Specifically, I guess, what are you most excited about? How has the Wonder Cake introduction performed, you know, versus expectations so far?

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yeah.

Moderator

Tasty product.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yeah. Thank you, thank you. Yeah, we're excited about a lot. I mean, we, as many of you know, if you listen to our calls, and we've had a very heavy focus on innovation for a number of years now, and, you know, I would say, you know, most of it is centered around better-for-you snacks, like the DKB stuff. Wonder, obviously, much more indulgent-

Moderator

Mm-hmm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... you know, not quite on the better-for-you profile, but, yeah, I mean, we've put a lot of focus on it, put a lot of resources behind it, a lot of investment in it, and when you think about, you know, the better-for-you health attributes, you know, we started down this path, you know, long before RFK was -

Moderator

Yep

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... was in his position. So we've got a, you know, we've got a good head start. We were already moving the company-

Moderator

Mm-hmm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... in that direction, so we're really excited about the DKB platform, continuing to gain distributions, velocity, et cetera. We've already talked about Simple Mills.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

That obviously is right on trend there, and then Wonder, you know, as many of you know, our cake business has struggled for quite a while. You know, we've got a great regional brand in Tastykake that does well in that part of the world, but outside of that, tends to struggle against, you know, Hostess and Debbie and some of the others. So we knew we needed to do something to combat that and decided to try, you know, un-

Moderator

Mm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... under the iconic Wonder brand.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

I mean, the Wonder brand. I mean, it's brand's got 98% awareness. So we thought we'd give it a whirl and, you know, set pretty high expectations for it, and it's vastly exceeded our expectations. Lots of retailer excitement around it. Some retailers even took it early before the broader launch, and it's continued to gain momentum. So we'll build on that next year with a round of innovation for Wonder as well.

Moderator

Mm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

But it's been a very nice addition to the portfolio and really helped, you know, what had been a struggling category for us.

Moderator

Good. Good. Can you provide maybe, you know, an update on how small loaves are doing?

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

They're doing very well. You know, as we touched on earlier, you know, demographic shifts in the country, and people just, you know, either looking to, you know, reduce their consumption of carbs or-

Moderator

Yep

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... because they don't need as much and, you know, don't want to be wasteful by throwing out a half a loaf of bread, perhaps. It fits that bill perfectly. And so we... I think we started with three SKUs. I think we've got six now. We'll continue to build on that, build and build space. We are offering it under the Nature's Own brand-

Moderator

Mm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... which is the number one soft variety brand in the country, and we also have a bit more value-priced option in the mini loaf coming out under the Wonder brand.

Moderator

Okay, great. I guess just to put a finer point on it, to level set, past few years, you've discussed Dave's Killer Bread bars and bites as part of the broader push into sort of the better-for-you snacking arena. Where do you stand today on that brand family within snacking, and what do you see ahead on that growth vector?

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

We're gonna continue to grow. I mean, we started with the bars. Very competitive category, but Dave's is holding its own there, and competing very well from a velocity standpoint. I mean, we're still small.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

But we continue to gain distribution, continue to grow. We followed that with the snack bites. There's kind of three sweeter options. There's three savory options, more flavors coming next year.

Moderator

Mm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

And different pack sizes. This one here is the larger one, and there's some in the room across the way, too, if folks are interested. But we also have smaller two-ounce packs, too, that are, you know, be great for convenience stores.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Which I should mention is a huge white space for us. We're big in mass, and grocery-

Moderator

Mm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... and club and dollar stores and all that. Convenience stores, we're very under-penetrated. Just 'cause we're large, you know, we're largely a bread company, not a lot of bread sold in convenience stores.

Moderator

Mm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Short shelf life, all that sort of thing. But now, with Dave's Killer Bread snack portfolio, the bars, the bites, and everything to come behind it, plus Simple Mills-

Moderator

Mm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... plus Wonder Cake, you've got a really nice portfolio to bring-

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... to C-stores, and there's 150,000 of them.

Moderator

Yeah. How do you access C stores from a distribution perspective? Is it using your distribution?

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yes.

Moderator

Okay.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yes, yes, and all of these... I should mention, too, all these products, Wonder included, are all warehouse-delivered-

Moderator

Yep

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... so none of this is on the route trucks-

Moderator

Mm-hmm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... that traditionally deliver the bread.

Moderator

Got it.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

It's hard to get. Part of the problem with convenience stores historically, for us, the distributors just don't want to stop there.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

The stop is so small.

Moderator

Mm-hmm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... they would much rather go to their Publix or their Walmart or their Kroger and do their big drop.

Moderator

Yep.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

So warehouse is the way to go. I think, you know, to give them credit, I mean, Hostess is the one that taught us all that, you know-

Moderator

Right

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... when they converted from DSD to warehouse.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Great model for it.

Moderator

Thanks. Any other products in the innovation pipeline of note or things that are coming that-

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

There are

Moderator

... we could tease?

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

I can't be specific about it for competitive reasons, but we have quite a few very on-trend offerings coming in just a few weeks' time, actually, for the fall resets-

Moderator

Mm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... and then some at the very beginning of the year and for the spring resets next year.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

So it's a very heavy load in-

Moderator

Mm-hmm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... that we've been working on for a while. And again, back to the beginning of our conversation, particularly on the bread side, that will also help to mitigate some of the softness we see in the core of the category.

Moderator

Right. As we think about input costs outside of tariffs, what sort of impact will they have on the second half, and sort of where are the greatest areas of pressure?

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

Sure. I mean, you know, as I said, from a comp perspective, the second half is tougher than the first. You know, we are expecting absolute dollar increases in things like palm oil, eggs, you know, cocoa, packaging, egg tariffs. So, even though, you know, wheat has pulled back some, it's still a little volatile, and it's still at, you know, a higher base. You know, it has been nice to see, you know, a pullback in wheat. But, from an overall cost perspective, including tariffs, you know, the back half will be up, you know, year over year.

Moderator

Okay.

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

That's all planned in our guidance.

Moderator

Yep.

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

Yeah.

Moderator

Thank you. You've been going through an ERP transition. Maybe you can just level set the audience on where we currently stand in that process and what the plan is for the year, and whether there have been any disruptions as you've sort of, you know, restarted the rollout.

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

Sure. I mean, you know, we started this in twenty... Well, actually, we started it before 2023. We actually, you know, initiated a rollout, and we had to pause it, you know, to come back and two bakeries. You know, our goal was to make sure we didn't do anything, you know, to jeopardize the business. So, you know, we thought it was prudent to start small. We had a couple of missteps, came back, you know, corrected those.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

You know, earlier this year, we did test things at one bakery and completed the rollout. Things went pretty well, so we feel great about that. We're actually starting, you know, in the back half now to ramp things back up. We have, you know, a handful of bakeries planned, you know, in Q3. Depending on how that goes, then we may be able to pick up the pace.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

So, you know, we feel like from an overall cost perspective, we're good. We'll stay with, you know, within the range that we've forecasted. And then, you know, from a timing perspective, right now we're still shooting for the end of twenty twenty-six, but it will depend on the, you know, on the success, you know, I think, of the rollouts in the back half of this year.

Moderator

Okay. Great. Can you talk about additional factors to consider around margins in the period ahead? And specifically, in the most recent quarter, co-manufacturing costs were up, presumably related to innovation. In your 10-Q, I think you said the higher rate of spend was likely to continue. So how should investors think about that line item as you scale up some of, you know, the many initiatives that you're talking about here?

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yeah, specific to that line item, most of that is gonna be Simple Mills.

Moderator

Okay.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

All of their products are currently co-manufactured. And then to a lesser degree, the DKB bar and bites items are also co-manufactured. So that's. We do a little bit of co-manufacturing on the bread side, but most of that is gonna be these newer acquisition, plus our newer innovation items outside of the bread category.

Moderator

Okay.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yep.

Moderator

I think directionally, you've been more inclined to increase spending around advertising and marketing, really to support your differentiated products and innovation. I guess, what's your outlook for brand support against the sort of current backdrop, and how are you thinking about that in the years ahead?

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yeah, I mean, we definitely have, you know, over the last several years, increased our brand support. We think that's really important, particularly as we made that pivot to be more-

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... consumer-focused and consumer-led. Obviously, that means, you know, needed brand support, particularly when we were, you know, moving outside of our core categories, and we have to support this. We have to tell consumers that it's there. Expect that to continue.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

I think that there's certainly a balance between the advertising support and the promotional support. Many of you know, we historically don't promote as much-

Moderator

Mm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... as our competition. That's not to say we don't promote. We do, but at a much lower rate. We view trade spend as a tool to drive awareness-

Moderator

Mm-hmm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... and household penetration, not as a tool to gain unit share. We use the strength of our brands to gain unit share. And so you can expect that balance to continue, much like it has in the past. That's not to say that sometimes you don't have to respond to some competitive activity, but we do so-

Moderator

Sure

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... in a way that's thoughtful and generates, you know, the best possible ROI.

Moderator

Okay. I guess, post Simple Mills, what are your capital allocation priorities? Are you still in a position to contemplate additional acquisitions at this stage, and with a relatively high payout ratio, what are the plans for the dividend going forward?

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

Yeah, I mean, you know, we've from a capital allocation perspective, you know, we've been pretty consistent, you know, all of my career. I don't really see anything philosophically changing there. Obviously, from a debt perspective, you know, we are more levered than we have been historically, driven by the Simple Mills acquisition. So we're very, you know, from a priority perspective, we're very focused on deleveraging. You know, most of our debt is fixed. We have great liquidity in our revolver, our AR facility. You know, from a debt tower perspective, 2026, we have a tranche of bonds coming due.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

You know, if today I had to, you know, forecast, you would expect us to, you know, refinance that with something that's potentially prepayable. That would give us the ability to delever, so you know, we're very focused, you know, on that. With regards to the dividend, you know, it's a board decision, obviously, but-

Moderator

Mm-hmm

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

... you know, payout ratio is elevated. You know, I would say, you know, from an overall cash flow perspective, you know, still have a nice arbitrage between D&A, CapEx.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

You know, there are levers we can pull, you know, if need be.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

You know, you know, the board has good visibility into historic cash flow. They have, I feel like, good visibility into future cash flow. I mean, even though we are seeing some pressures, this is still a great cash generation business.

Moderator

Yeah.

Steve Kinsey
CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, Flowers Foods

So they'll just continue to evaluate the dividend on a, you know, quarterly basis go forward.

Moderator

Got it. And Ryals, you know, you've got, obviously, and Steve, history in this business, and frankly, in the broader sort of packaged food landscape. The way many of these stocks in this space are trading these days, it's almost as if investors are starting to sort of think that, hey, some of the challenges the industry's facing, like, this time is different somehow.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Mm-hmm.

Moderator

And you know that the issues are more structural in nature, even though the industry's been through many challenges over the years, and typically does find its way-

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yeah

Moderator

-forward. And I'm just curious your thought on that. I mean, are things different this time? Or is it just, hey, the challenges are different each time, but the industry's fairly agile, and it'll find its way through it?

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yeah, I think it's definitely the latter, and I think that's true across food.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

You know, every time we encounter one of these... You know, it was back in the Atkins days, you know, you heard it back then.

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... about the world was coming in for carbs.

Moderator

Low carb, low fat.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Exactly.

Moderator

I mean, it keeps going, you know.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

And we were talking about eggs. You know, eggs used to be-

Moderator

Right

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... deadly, apparently, you know? And now it's, you know, completely, has completely changed-

Moderator

Mm-hmm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... and protein's great, and you move on. So it's the challenges are definitely different.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

But as I said at the outset, you know, there are ways around this, and I think the industry will innovate around it. They'll respond to the challenges. Some of them will be temporary in nature, some of them-

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... will be, more permanent in nature. I think we've got a good handle on that. We're first to acknowledge that, you know, our category, is challenged, but it's been challenged in the past, and we-

Moderator

Mm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... we've always found our way around it.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

I was telling someone yesterday, I would be. You know, obviously we're, you know, we're concerned. First of all, most of us are heavy owners of our stock.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

I mean, that's always been true at Flowers, it's still true today. So this, this is deeply personal to us. And, you know, we're aware of the challenges that we have ahead of us. You know, we're deeply focused on them. I would be a lot more concerned if we were trying to compete with number four, number five, and number seven brands, but that's not the case.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

The case is that we have number one brands across categories, and now with the additional Simple Mills, even more so outside the category, so that gives me great confidence that behind the strength of those brands, you know, we'll find ways around this.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

So we're. You know, it's an uncomfortable period right now.

Moderator

Mm-hmm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... but, we're also excited about the future.

Moderator

Yeah. I appreciate that perspective, right, 'cause I think that broader context is important, you know-

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yeah

Moderator

... for folks here with that question, 'cause particularly those that don't necessarily have a lengthier history-

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yeah

Moderator

... in the space, right?

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yeah, exactly.

Moderator

And haven't seen these sorts of things before. And maybe just in our last moments, I guess anything that you want to sort of talk to the group about on either what you think might be most misunderstood? You know, you, you've been in meetings, obviously, during the day yesterday as well. You're getting a lot of the similar incoming questions that we went through today. But are there any themes or topics that you feel like, hey, those are all reasonable and relevant, but that maybe people are missing either the forest for the trees in some way, or along those lines?

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Yeah, it's a great question. I'm glad you asked it, because I do think there's something.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Some of the folks that know us a little bit better, I don't think fall into this category, but, you know, for those of you that might not, I would ask you to look at the category more deeply than just on the surface level, because there is growth in this category.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

You know, I'll even mention some of our sort of indirect competitors here. People are still eating a lot of baked goods.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

If you, if anybody in the room is familiar with Kodiak Cakes, I mean, they're doing $500 million plus of that, okay? That's a baked product.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Smucker's does over $1 billion with Uncrustables. That is a baked product. You know, it's really more of, you know, how people are shopping for baked goods, where they're shopping for baked goods, how they consume baked goods. And that's what we're working on. I want folks to take away that there is growth in this category, and you know, I've highlighted some of the areas even within our current category that are growing within bread.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

I mean, Dave's Killer Bread is still doing great. Look, look at your syndicated data, you can see it very, very clearly. Canyon is still doing very, very well. You know, we were not a first mover in keto. We're number one in keto.

Moderator

Mm.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

But there's that number one brand again, Nature's Own. So there is growth here. Having said that, I'm not gonna tell you that it's an overnight fix. It's not. It's gonna take a little bit of time for this transition to take place.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

I think the takeaway, though, is that we're well ahead of it-

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... and we're working on it, and we're being proactive about it. So over time, I think as you see the portfolio start to change and shift, alongside of some of those pressures that are more economic related, as things get better, which they always do, you know, some of those pressures will relieve.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

You know, my goal for the soft variety segment, which is again, where we're most pressured, is just to get that stable.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

If we can get that even just flat-

Moderator

Mm-hmm

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... that will make a tremendous difference in our results, which at the end of the day, are the only thing that matters.

Moderator

Yeah

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

... to shareholders.

Moderator

Yeah.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

So.

Moderator

That's great perspective, so I really appreciate that.

Ryals McMullen
Chairman and CEO, Flowers Foods

Sure.

Moderator

I think that's a good point to head over to the breakout for those that have some additional questions. And please join me in thanking Ryals and Steve for being-

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