Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND)
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Goldman Sachs 31st Annual Global Retailing Conference

Sep 4, 2024

Operator

We get started. This is our last session of the day. Thanks for everybody for hanging around, sticking it out. We're very happy to be with Floor & Decor. Today, we have Tom Taylor, Chief Executive Officer, Trevor Lang, President of Floor & Decor, and Bryan Langley, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Thanks to everybody for joining us today. Trevor, your name's in the air today.

Trevor Lang
President, Floor & Decor

Yep.

Operator

A lot of people have asked me to ask you about your announcement yesterday, so I wondered if we could start off with that.

Trevor Lang
President, Floor & Decor

Yeah. I mean, I'll start by saying, you know, this is an incredible country, and I'm blessed to work for this company, and it's been a fantastic 13 years ago when I started, and I think we were 24 stores and just over $200 million in sales, to think we'll end this year at, you know, 240 stores and some portion of $4.5 billion in sales. I wouldn't have dreamed this, and so I think we've built an incredible company, and I'm just as proud as the management team we've built around this company. And so as my wife and I were contemplating that, you know, we wanted to do something outside of the business world. I do think this is my last job.

You never know for sure, but I do think this is my last job. I felt comfortable with, you know, folks like Bryan, the next level of leadership that can do a fantastic job for us. And so for me, it's just personal. We're gonna go spend time traveling and seeing the world and seeing family and spending a little bit more time out west as well. And because the company has made it through this in really good shape, obviously, you know, our sales and earnings are not what we think they can be, but we've come through this in really good shape, and so great team, great business.

It was just ready for me to go do something else, and, you know, Tom's built an incredible company to give some of us the opportunity to do so. So we'll go off and tackle other things outside of the business world.

Operator

That's great. Well, congratulations.

Trevor Lang
President, Floor & Decor

Thank you.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

It's bittersweet. You hate to see an executive like Trevor move on, but I'm happy for him and his family. We're as much friends as we are partners, and this is what you work for, is to create opportunities for people to do what they want to do. So, you know, Trevor's earned it, and it's well- earned, and we wish him, you know, well in the future. He's not leaving anytime soon, so you guys may see him at another investor conference.

Operator

Mm-hmm.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

He's gonna stick it out while we figure out what the replacement strategy is.

Operator

That's great. Well, thank you for addressing that.

Trevor Lang
President, Floor & Decor

Yep.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Mm-hmm.

Operator

Glad we get you one last time here. This is nice.

Trevor Lang
President, Floor & Decor

Thank you.

Operator

Most of our questions today are focused, of course, on the macro, and, you know, recently, you changed your guidance to lean towards the lower- end of your guided range, just given the uncertainty home sales, and hard surface flooring demand. At what mortgage rate do you expect housing turnover to reengage? And if it weren't, you know, do you think you'd be able to comp positive?

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Yeah. So I'll start with that, and if Bryan wants to jump in if I miss something. So you know, I think for us, I think if mortgage rates get into the fives, then I think that could be beneficial for home sales. I think six is maybe good for home sales, and then seven is probably a bad thing. And you know, household affordability is still a big part of this, and while interest rates coming down, housing prices haven't come down a whole lot, so there's still some question mark to the lowering of interest rates and how immediate of an impact that will have on existing home sales.

I'm not an economist, but I mean, I think that type of mortgage rate. I think there's people on the sidelines. I think more inventory will come into the market, and I think we'd see an increase in existing home sales.

For our performance, I think if home sales are better year- over- year, and hard surface flooring is growing year-over-year, then we will grow year-over-year.

And then I think that our comp sales can return to maybe not some normalcy from what they did historically, but they can get better than where they are today. So only time will tell. I think the only other thing with the macro and then the interest rates that could happen that would work in our benefit is, let's say that the housing values have stayed high and interest rates come down. People don't necessarily want to step into a new house, but that may encourage them to take money out of their existing house. So you could see some refi, and historically, refi's been good for home improvement. So in turn, we think it would be good for Floor & Decor, and that could help our sales.

Operator

And then if you were to see reengagement in the housing turnover, Keith, how long is the lag between when you do start to see improvements in housing turnover and when you see it in your business?

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Yeah, I mean, it's a bit of a guess. Like, you know, I don't think we have 100% certainty on it, but I look at it in terms of, you know, anywhere from one to four months, we should start seeing benefits. I think when... There is an element of when more houses are going on the market, there's some hard surface flooring that's going into those homes as they prepare to go list- to get listed. But more of the activity happens when someone buys a house, and the house is gonna remain vacant for a period of time. They're likely to take carpet out of bedrooms and put hard surface into bedrooms, or they're likely to redo a kitchen that they wouldn't want to do while they're moving into a house or while they're living into the house. So...

I think those things happen within, you know, two to three months of the turnover improving.

Operator

You've talked about, you know, the project basket is smaller scale projects-

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Yeah.

Operator

... than it was before, for obvious reasons. But what does like a typical project look like today?

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Today, and I'll let Bryan, you can jump in, kind of, on the-

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

Yeah.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

... statistics on it, but and today, I mean, consumers with lower. If they're not moving from one house to another, and they're invested in their existing home in their existing homes, the reason the projects are a bit smaller is they're tackling projects like bathrooms or they're tackling a kitchen. They're not doing multiple rooms in the house, so that's brought it down. And then combined, for us, the other complexity of lower home sales is you lose the house flipper. When the market's like this, and interest rates are high and housing prices are high, when a flipper is gonna do the whole house, and that's a really big ticket for us and really beneficial for us, and they kind of come out of the market in this environment. But any data you want to-

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

No, I mean, I, I think as I sit back and I look at it, the average basket size, if you think about it, just square footage, that's what we sell, is actually relatively in line with what it was pre-COVID. So we, we kind of had a run-up post-COVID, where the basket size increased through those projects, and it's kind of regressed back down and, and have been on a glide path back to where now we're kind of in line with where we were pre-COVID. One of the things putting pressure on our, our basket size is actually doing much better in installation materials.

So they're using it more in that convenience store style, where they're coming in for an extra bag of grout or a couple of other small things, and that, that puts a little bit of pressure on your basket size as well in today's environment.

Operator

What about the health of the consumer? This is something that we talked about Home Depot today, too. I mean, there's the, you know, the housing piece of this equation, you know, that the housing market has been in a recession, but then there's just the overall health of the consumer. And I do think, at least Home Depot talked about how they're starting to see some lack in confidence starting to seep into maybe their, the rest of their business, not necessarily the big-ticket finance business, but smaller ticket. How do you view your consumer, or the health of your consumer, and, and if anything has changed there?

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

I think it's. We're a little bit different than Home Depot. They're appealing to customers at broad levels of income who are working on different parts of their homes, and that's a bit different. I think when someone's engaging in a hard surface flooring project, they tend to be a little bit a higher end of a consumer, where they're, you know, it's a higher end demo, and their income levels are a bit different. And so I think that they're less affected. So I think for us, the health of the consumers is certainly something we're paying attention to and something we have to be wary of. But when we're watching what's happening with the sales that are going on in our stores today, customers that are doing the project, they're still buying the better and best SKUs in the store.

So they're spending up on their projects, which tells me that, you know, again, it's a higher end consumer, that we should have less of effect. I think, you know, the key. You know, a big portion of our improvement in our trend will be when home sales get better. I think that's a pretty big correlator to what happens with our sales.

Operator

And then how should we think about category trends, within, again, the context of this more muted environment? I think you'd mentioned laminate and vinyl. Those remain the weakest-

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Mm-hmm.

Operator

merchandise categories, but are there any categories that maybe you are seeing kind of bucking the trend or something that consumers are gravitating towards, one more than the other?

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

So from a department standpoint, our installation materials department's been doing well all year. We've been, you know, pretty aggressive in making sure that our price spreads versus the competition are good. That's a product that the professional customer buys, you know, every week, so they, the sharper we are and the better offerings that we have, the better we do. And we've made a lot of investment in brands in that department, and a lot of investments in inventory in the department. And, so that department's been doing really well. Within the store, like I said earlier, the better and best SKUs continue to be where the customer's gravitating to.

So when they come in and they're buying a tile, they're buying a 24 by 48 tile or, or larger, and when they're coming in, they're buying, you know, vinyl planks, they're buying the larger ones. So, you know, we're seeing that customer spend up, and, you know, I think that's about it. Yeah.

Operator

Maybe if we can talk a little bit about store economics. It's a question that we get quite a bit about, just the health of your new store economics, which, really have been challenged in this macro. I don't think it can be really explained anything more than that. But can you maybe talk through what the store economics look like for new stores today in the current environment? And, you know, how do mature stores look versus these new stores?

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

Yeah, I'll jump in, and then Trevor and Tom can add in. Look, we've been pretty transparent about it. Our class of 2022, 2023, and now 2024 are going to be below our pro forma targeted class average of 14-16 million in sales. We traditionally see $2.5 million-$3 million in formal EBITDA from those, so they will be a little bit pressured. Obviously, to your point, we believe it's all macro- related. And the mature stores, you know, at peak, they were doing somewhere around $27 million-$28 million on a trailing 12 months. They're, you know, they're moderately below that today, but we still are in the low- 20s EBITDA %.

And so that's really what gives us conviction in the model long- term. Even in this environment, the pressure that we see today, our stores that are mostly mature—it's five years and older—are still performing very well and still, you know, very profitable in this environment.

Operator

Are you seeing any meaningful difference with the store economics within existing markets versus new markets?

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

For newer stores or

Operator

Yeah.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

For newer stores?

Operator

Mm-hmm.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

Yeah, stores that are in existing markets tend to start off a little bit better for us. Again, we've got brand awareness, we've got loyalty, we're making it more convenient for our pros, and so we have seen better metrics for our existing stores versus new stores, but you know, we've seen slow markets in the past, like newer markets that start up a little bit slower, but they've all come around, and you know, Tom and Trevor can talk a little bit more about that, but each market that we've entered into has turned. It's just a matter of when, not if.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Our stores have always ramped.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

Yeah.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

They take a long time to ramp, and when you're in a new market or, you know, we've gotten to more smaller markets over the last couple of years, and we did that, we did that purposely. We made those decisions in 2021 , in the markets we were entering, and it was tough to open stores after COVID because of municipalities and getting stores built, and so we elected to go to some easier places to build. There were smaller towns, and as the macro turned negative, we are dependent on the professional customer to help bring us business. When they don't know who we are, it takes a minute to get them in the store, so I mean, we do lots of grassroots marketing. We do huge pro events in the stores when we open them.

We do training scenarios in the stores. We have people out on the street trying to find professionals to get them in the store, but it takes some time, and when there's no demand in the market or very little demand in the market, it gets even harder. So those stores in those towns, they just ramp differently than the stores where, in existing markets, where it's a pro that has been shopping at a neighboring store, now we're closer to their job site, and they automatically come over, so those stores do better.

Operator

Right. Well, when it comes to unit growth, you did recently announce your decision to pull back on some of the store openings in 2025, understandably. Probably didn't pull back as much as some people thought you were going to pull back. So could you maybe walk through that decision first?

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Sure.

Operator

And we have a few more questions.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Sure, So, you know, we've been opening pretty aggressively throughout the downturn, and we've said, "Look, we're a market share grower. We're a category killer. We're gonna take advantage of a down market and grow," and we did. And so during the course of the last three years, we've opened close to 100 stores. And as we got to this year, we said, "Look, you know, we keep waiting for home sales to get better." This has been a long cycle of negativity. So, as it wasn't happening, we said, "Look, we're gonna grow within our existing capital structure, so we're gonna be more prudent with the capital.

Two, we're going to pick more of a stores that... We kind of ranked the opportunities that we had and said, "These are the stores that we thought had the best opportunity for quicker success and a better return out of the gate." And so we brought that store number down, and then secondarily, we purposely back-end loaded it so that we have even more flexibility, so that if we saw things step down from here, and things or things not improve as we get to the turn of year, we have flexibility to push some of those 25 out. So we'll make that decision as we get into the first of next year. We do not have a fast follower, so with this does nothing to change our thoughts on a 500- store opportunity. It's just, we don't have a fast follower.

We're opening at a difficult time to get customers into the store. We'll wait till things get a bit better to accelerate that growth. And if things get a lot better, and there seems to be more optimism at the conference than I felt a year ago, so if things tend to get better, then we have also the ability to flex the store count up, that we can. We've got enough in the pipeline, and as we've slowed our store count down, we haven't really reduced the staff of our real estate or construction teams. We still have plenty of people to go open stores. So if things get better, we can accelerate. If things get worse, we can decelerate.

Operator

Then the mix of those stores in 2025 between large and smaller formats, between existing and new markets, retrofit and new builds, how does that all break down?

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

There's a lot into that, that we haven't given out publicly.

Operator

Okay.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Go ahead.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

But, generally, you know, we've over the last several years, we've got 60%-70% of our stores have been in existing markets, so I think that'll, you know, be the case again. Store size for the class of 2025 will be similar to the store size of this year. Obviously, you're right, we, there's, you know, the stores can come in and out of that, but I don't think the overall mix and make is gonna be all that different.

What Tom mentioned is we sort of narrowed our aperture a little bit during this time where the environment's tougher, and we're taking less risky sites, which are generally newer markets for us or smaller markets, and we're pushing those out and focusing the stores that we are opening on markets that we have a higher degree of probability that they're gonna be successful. 'Cause we generally have stores in those markets and are pretty good at projecting what those volumes will be in those higher volume stores where we have a lot of markets or high volume markets where we have a lot of stores.

Operator

We wondered if we could spend some time on pricing. Maybe we can just level set, 'cause I think there's been some fluctuation in pricing over the last couple of years in terms of managing price gaps between you and your competitors. Could you tell us maybe where we are today, you know, with any kind of pricing initiative, how you would define the gap today versus a few years ago? And can you share your thoughts on any kind of price elasticity that you've seen as a result of price reductions?

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Okay. If I remember-

Operator

Yes, I can repeat them.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

If I forget one of the questions-

Operator

Yes, yes.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

... you can repeat one.

Operator

It's been a while. Sorry.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

For me too. So I think first we'll talk about, so say, 2017 to 2018 to today, price spreads versus the competition. We measure pricing, you know, our category is difficult to shop, right? Those of you who follow us know there's not a lot of brand relevance. You really have to understand features and benefits of a product to understand kind of true pricing. We take a look at like-for-like SKUs across the competitive landscape, and we measure that on a weekly basis, on a monthly basis, and on a quarterly basis, and when we look at our spreads today versus historical, they're not too different. They ebb and flow during the course of a year.

You'll get a home improvement center that gets a new merchant, and they may get aggressive, and so for a quarter, that gap narrows, and then it expands, and then it narrows, and then it expands. But overall, from a pricing standpoint versus the big boxes and versus the independents, the spreads are pretty consistent to what they've been. We've been able to grow gross margin rate, through a lot of activities, you know, supply chain, supply chain cost easing, helping our gross margin, the consumer shifting to better and best, helping our gross margins, our merchants diversifying out of China into the other parts of the world and buying better, and getting better gross margins. So lots of elements have helped that margin, but this pricing spread has remained pretty consistent historically. What's the second part of the question?

Operator

Now I don't even know what to say. I have it right in front of me, and I don't even know.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

All right.

Operator

I guess really, you know, just the price elasticity when you have-

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Yeah.

Operator

When you have changed.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Yeah

Operator

... the prices, have you seen a response?

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Where we've seen... So we don't see... And we pilot it all the time, where we'll take a SKU of a laminate or a SKU of a vinyl or a SKU of a tile, and we'll drop the price on it, and we tend to shift customers within our own customer base. So they come in for one thing, and they buy another, but we don't get a lot of unit volume increase, right? We don't get a huge sales lift because they came in to buy one SKU, and then they may shift down to a SKU that we price lower. Where we see benefit versus the competition, and we tend to grow total sales, is where we do it in installation materials. Something that the professional buys all the time.

If we find ourselves, there's certain parts of that department where we're more aggressive, the pro knows it, and they buy up on it. They'll buy a significant amount of inventory of it to keep in their own for their own job sites or their own. So, we've continued to keep the pressure on there and make sure that we're sharp and continue to pilot lowering prices there, where it makes sense to drive volume. But that's where we drive incremental volume for the store, it's in the installation materials, and the rest of the departments, it's like we shift the customer from one SKU to the other within our own mix.

Operator

O ne thing we wanted to focus on is you do have, you know, a unique model, and that you're direct sourcing most of your product. I know a lot of that sourcing comes from Asia and from the Middle East. You know, on the Asia, China side of things, there's the tariff risk, and then on the Middle East side, there's the exposure to the Red Sea, so I wondered if, you know, rather than me asking a laundry list of questions-

Trevor Lang
President, Floor & Decor

Sure.

Operator

If we could maybe just approach each topic from a sourcing standpoint and how you're

Trevor Lang
President, Floor & Decor

Sure, sure.

Operator

managing that.

Trevor Lang
President, Floor & Decor

Yeah, on the sourcing side of it, we've dealt with, obviously, the Red Sea. That's not new news. We don't have a lot that goes that route, but that's all been rerouted, and, you know, we're working through that. We said, I think two calls ago, you know, maybe it would be $1 million, which, you know, for us is not all that significant, and we've managed through that issue pretty well. On the tariff issue, so everybody probably knows, but today, everything we buy out of China has a 25% tariff on it, and those tariffs have stayed in place. Obviously, depending on who wins the election, some, you know, one of the candidates is much more aggressive on tariffs than the other.

We have continued to minimize our, or lower our, mix in China. I think we ended last year at maybe mid-twenties versus, you know, four or five years ago, we were over fifty, and as we exit this year, you know, that number will be even significantly below the mid-twenties, so we have continued to lower that and move that sourcing to other markets in Southeast Asia. We've moved some of it to Europe. We've moved some of it here to the United States as well. We think that if, indeed, large tariffs were to go in place against China, which is, you know, where most of the rhetoric is today, everything left that we have sourced there, we think the whole industry sources there as well.

So we don't believe we'll be any more disproportionately impacted by anybody else. In the past, everything that we've seen is that if those tariffs go into place, you know, businesses don't have the product profitability to not pass that along. So people have been very rational about passing along those cost increases. We would expect that to happen again. If there's the broader tariff that's been talked about, where kind of every country gets 10%, you know, that again affects everybody the same.

Operator

Yeah.

Trevor Lang
President, Floor & Decor

So, you know, that's just inflationary by nature, I believe. And, you know, we'll deal with that just like everybody else. The short story is, I think we've mitigated our risk down to what's available. And, you know, an average store today has 4,000 SKUs, and if we get down to, you know, whatever, 10%, 12%, 15% of that is coming out of China, we've got other things we could shift and put into that, those spaces, that we think will sell well. And, you know, we've got great merchants. We source from 240 vendors in 24 countries, and so we'll deal with it effectively like we did in, you know, 2017 and 2018.

Operator

Okay, thank you. Bryan, I was wondering if I could ask you about the cost structure and how you're, you know, managing some of your obligations on the expense side of things as the top- line continues to be pressured by the macro. What can we expect kind of through the end of this year into next year if we can still see, you know, the top- line somewhat muted?

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

Yeah, I think if the top- line is muted, I mean, look, it's. We've communicated this on prior calls, but about a quarter of our stores are on minimum hours, so there's still a little bit that we can do to flex with transactions. You know, and again, it's everything we've done in today's environment, even reducing labor hours, our service scores are still as high as they've ever been.

I think that's important to us, but there's still a little bit we can flex with, again, hours coming down to, you know, mirror transactions. We're still pushing on discretionary spend with reflows, like reflowing product, resets, those kind of things. We pulled back a little bit in advertising and some other things within there. I think you guys have heard us say it, but about 55% of our cost structure is traditionally fixed within the four walls, and then 45% is variable. You know, we're taking a long, hard look and self-reflecting about how we can get more efficient within the box. All those things are still, you know, up for grabs this year. There's still a little bit more we can go after.

But then, on the flip side of that, if you fast-forward into 2025 and beyond, you know, when this turns, you know, we're set up for significant earnings power again. If 25% of our stores or a quarter of our stores are on minimum hours, they have to earn into that.

And so there should be significant earnings power coming through this, when the cycle turns as well. And so there are certain things that we don't have to put back in, certain things we've just got smarter about how we do business. You know, we didn't talk about it in here in the four walls today, but, you know, Tom mentioned on the last call, we have found $1.5 million in new store construction.

So that's really going to take effect in 2025, like for like. So we're taking a long, hard look at every dollar that we spend, how we spend it, and how we can get more efficient, so.

Operator

Okay, thank you. The last question I have before we go into the lightning round of questions is the commercial business.

You know, you've made two successful acquisitions in the commercial space. Maybe could you just update us on how that business is going, what it looks like relative to the retail business, and how should we think about growth opportunities, both organically and from acquisitions longer -term?

Trevor Lang
President, Floor & Decor

Yeah, we've been pleasantly surprised with our approach in commercial, both on our regional account managers that sell out of our stores and to our Spartan acquisition and the bolt-ons that we've done since then. They've outperformed our expectations. We will continue to. We've challenged the management team at Spartan to continue to cast a net and bring us ideas on ways to grow. I don't think you'd see us acquire anything the size of Spartan, but to do more bolt-on acquisitions as we get into next year is certainly something that we have an appetite for. The business has done better than the retail business, and the sectors that we sell into commercial are better sectors. I mean, we're selling into healthcare, into what is this? Schools and-

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

Education.

Trevor Lang
President, Floor & Decor

Yeah, educational. So it's like, t hose are, t hose are pretty, pretty good businesses right now, so they've done pretty well. Then we've expanded the SKU offering at Spartan and the subsidiaries, too, to give them more stuff to sell out in the Floor & Decor stores and other Floor & Decor lineups. So between all that, we're pleased with the business and we'll continue to be aggressive in there going forward.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

I think we'll be aggressive growing organically as well.

Trevor Lang
President, Floor & Decor

Yeah.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

I think that was the other part of your question. So looking at both on acquisitions-

Trevor Lang
President, Floor & Decor

Yeah.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

... but also growing organically as well.

Trevor Lang
President, Floor & Decor

Yeah.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

So they, they've got a great reputation. You know, the individual that runs that for us has a great network, and so I think we'll continue to grow both ways.

Operator

... We've been asking all companies that have been on stage, five questions. We've touched on a lot of them already, but wanted to ask in kind of a lightning round format, so your expectations for the environment for the back half of the year, relative to what you've seen in the first half, do you expect things to be the same, better, or worse from the macro?

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

You want me to take that? I'd say the same. So if you think about what we said on the call, the midpoint of our guidance, assumes that sales trends are similar to what we saw in Q2 and the exit rate. But however, comps should improve or get less worse, just because we have easier compares. So from a comp perspective, w e should see things improve, but from a sales perspective and macro backdrop, we're counting on things to basically be similar to where they were in Q2.

Operator

Okay. And then we talked a little bit about cost pressures, with regards to something like tariffs, but when you think about freight and materials and labor, do you expect those costs to be the same, better, or worse in 2025?

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

The same is where... Like, we're not ready to commit to anything in 2025 yet.

Operator

Yeah

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

... but our house view is things should be similar to kind of where they are today.

Operator

Okay. The consumer behavior of looking for value is just something we continue to hear from, from all aspects of retail, and we're wondering if, if it's a function of the cyclicality and the macro, or if there's maybe some kind of shift in how the consumer, you know, looks at value or prioritizes value secularly. Do you have an opinion on that?

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

I think it's much more cyclicality-

Operator

Yes.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

... and macro than it is a change in consumer preference. I mean, we still, when the consumer's buying in the store, they're still spending up and buying what they want to put in their home. They're not stepping down to the opening price points in the store, so this is, for us, it's, you know, we're dependent on a better housing macro backdrop.

Operator

Our fourth question is about more or less distribution points in the U.S. next year. Obviously, you guys are growing units, so you'll have more distribution points. What about your competition? Do you expect more or less distribution points?

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Less.

Operator

Less.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Yeah, there's going to be over 400 less as of November. So-

Operator

Right.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

... you know.

Operator

Right, right, right.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

There's... Yeah, we're, you know, we hear more and more of independents and sometimes distributors under pressure. So, I think that the amount of competition will lessen as we get into next year.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

Ports of entry, too. I mean, we'll open one distribution center for us-

Operator

Okay.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

... in, late 2025, and then we'll open another in 2026 as well. So we'll have two new ports of, or one new port of entry and another one we're expanding, as well, so different distribution points there as well.

Operator

Okay, perfect. Thank you. And then promotionality, which, you know, again, applies more to our retailers that are selling seasonal product and has a holiday season more so than anything else. But promotions, just do you expect promotions to be higher in the back half of this year versus the first half? I mean, again, your EDLP-

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

For holiday stuff, for the home improvement centers, yes.

Operator

Yes, but for you guys.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

But for our category, no, I don't think so. I don't think it'll be... We've been in a tough-- You know, this category's been under tremendous pressure for the last three years, and I think we've seen every value, every attempt at creating type of excitement around to drive by, and then, I don't think we see anything different as we get to the back half.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

Just one, the only comment I might give to that is, you know, LL Flooring declared bankruptcy on Friday. They disclosed that they're gonna try and liquidate all of their stores between now and November, so we gotta wait and see what that looks like.

Operator

Yeah.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

So that might be one thing. We don't believe we need to go to unprofitable levels. We're not gonna go to unprofitable levels. We're not trying to create cash like they are. But we just have to kind of watch that. We've never been through that, where, you know, an $850 million retailer is liquidating pretty quickly.

Operator

One question surrounding that, actually. I mean, any concern that with a liquidation like that, there's some kind of pull forward that might impact sales in the quarter or two ahead?

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

We don't, you know, we don't know, but I don't think so. I think that, you know, we've seen them. They've closed 100 stores, and we haven't seen much of an impact from that first 100 batch of closing that are near our stores. So as they close the next 300, they'll be flushing some inventory out from the DC, but we don't anticipate that that should impact. We think that as we get past their liquidation in November, that we should be that we have the best offering in the category, and we should be ripe to capture more of that market next year.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

Yeah.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

... than to lose anything.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

Yeah, medium to long term, it's great for us, right?

Operator

Oh, yeah.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

We think we're the next best competitor by,

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Yeah.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

... that that customer should go to, and, you know, we'll be moving aggressively to do everything we can to capture that business. Yeah, we're well- positioned to take the market share from them.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Mm-hmm.

Operator

Great. Okay, thank you.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Thanks.

Operator

It's the end of the day. We'll stop five minutes early. We'll give you a break.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

Okay, great.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you so much.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

Thanks for having us.

Operator

Yeah.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you.

Bryan Langley
EVP and CFO, Floor & Decor

All right.

Tom Taylor
CEO, Floor & Decor

Thank you, guys.

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