Good afternoon, and welcome to Forestar's third quarter 2022 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode, and the floor will be open for questions and comments after the presentation. One note, if you have any questions or comments during the question-and-answer portion of the call, please press star one on your touchtone phone. Pressing star two will remove you from the queue should your question be answered. I will now turn the call over to Katie Smith, Director of Finance and Investor Relations for Forestar.
Thank you, John. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the call to discuss Forestar's third quarter results. Thank you for joining us. Before we get started, today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although Forestar believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different. All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to Forestar on the date of this conference call, and we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements publicly. Additional information about issues that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in Forestar's annual report on Form 10-K and its most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q, both of which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
This afternoon's earnings release is on our website at investor.forestar.com, and we plan to file the 10-Q later this week. After this call, we will post an updated investor presentation to our investor relations site under Investor Presentations for your reference. Now I will turn the call over to Dan Bartok, our CEO.
Thank you, Katie, and good afternoon, everyone. In addition to Katie, I am pleased to be joined on the call today by Jim Allen, our Chief Financial Officer. The Forestar team delivered a strong third quarter, highlighted by net income increasing 151% from the prior year to $39.7 million, or $0.80 per diluted share. Pre-tax income increased 150% to $52.7 million, and our pre-tax profit margin expanded by over 1,000 basis points year-over-year to 17.1%. Revenues decreased 1% to $308.5 million, while lot deliveries decreased by 10% to 3,473. Our lot deliveries for the quarter fell below our expectations due to increased headwinds in the development process.
This was primarily related to municipality delays and, to a lesser extent, shortages of certain materials. However, demand for finished lots remained strong during the quarter, supported by our seventh consecutive quarter of finished lots on hand, accounting for less than 10% of Forestar's owned portfolio. Customers continued to purchase lots soon after completion. Forestar's lots sold to D.R. Horton continued to grow as a percentage of D.R. Horton's closings year-over-year. Additionally, our lots sold to customers other than D.R. Horton increased 213% compared to the prior year quarter. As a result of continued demand and our focused teams, we achieved significant improvement in our pre-tax profit margin both year-over-year and sequentially. Our increasing profitability and focus on capital efficiency is translating into higher returns for our shareholders.
Forestar achieved a 16.2% return on equity for the trailing 12 months and the June 30th, 2022. This was a 620 basis point improvement from the same period a year ago and our ninth consecutive quarter of ROE improvement. Interest rates rose very quickly in June, and the housing market is adjusting accordingly. Although we did not see demand deteriorate for finished lots during the third quarter, we expect new home starts will continue to moderate. We'll now discuss our third quarter results in more detail, and I will end the call with closing remarks and updated guidance. Jim?
Thank you, Dan. In the third quarter, Forestar's net income increased 151% to $39.7 million or $0.80 per diluted share, compared to $15.8 million or $0.32 per diluted share in the prior year quarter. Consolidated third-quarter revenues decreased 1% to $308.5 million. Lots sold decreased 10% year-over-year to 3,473 lots, with an average sales price of $86,500. Our average sales price this quarter was higher than the second quarter due to the geographic and lot size mix of lot deliveries. We expect our average sales price will continue to fluctuate quarter-to-quarter due to those factors. We are pleased that we continue to make progress delivering more lots from projects sourced by Forestar.
43% of lots sold in the quarter were Forestar-sourced, compared to 16% in the third quarter of 2021. Additionally, this is the first quarter since D.R. Horton acquired their controlling interest that 100% of lots sold during the quarter were from development projects. 13% of Forestar's third-quarter lot deliveries were sold to customers other than D.R. Horton, up from 4% in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. We sold 435 lots to 12 customers other than D.R. Horton, which was a 213% increase in lots sold to other customers compared to the prior year quarter. We are excited about the significant progress we have achieved in expanding our customer base and continue to target selling approximately 30% of our lots to other customers over the intermediate term. Dan?
Our pretax income for the third quarter increased 150% to $52.7 million with a pretax profit margin of 17.1%. As I said in my opening remarks, this was an improvement of over 1,000 basis points compared to the prior year quarter. The prior year quarter included an $18.1 million pretax loss on extinguishment of debt related to the redemption of the company's 8% senior notes. Excluding that $18.1 million charge, our pretax income for third quarter increased 34% and our pretax profit margin improved 460 basis points. Our gross profit margin expanded 620 basis points this quarter to 24% compared to 17.8% a year ago.
The improvement was primarily due to increased margins on lot sales from development projects sourced by Forestar. SG&A expense as a percentage of revenues in the third quarter was 7.8% compared to 5.4% in the prior year quarter. While this was higher than expected due to fewer lot deliveries this quarter, we believe we will continue to manage our business at a mid-single digit SG&A percentage for the full fiscal year. We remain focused on efficiently managing our SG&A while investing in our teams. Katie?
Forestar's underwriting criteria for new development projects includes a minimum 15% annual pre-tax return on inventory and a return of the initial cash investment within 36 months. During the third quarter, investments in land and land development totaled $368 million, of which $79 million was for land and $289 million was for land development. Fiscal year to date, our investments in land and land development totaled approximately $1.1 billion. We continue to be very selective when investing in new projects and remain focused on developing projects within our own land portfolio at a disciplined pace. We now plan to invest approximately $1.425 billion in land and land development during fiscal 2022, subject to market conditions, and we are continuing to target a three to four-year owned inventory of land and lots.
Forestar's lot position at June 30th was 97,000 lots, of which 65,300 lots were owned and 31,700 lots were controlled through purchase contracts. The majority of our owned lots were put under contract prior to 2021. At quarter end, we had 5,300 finished lots on hand. Finished lots have accounted for less than 10% of Forestar's owned portfolio for seven consecutive quarters. We are intensely focused on managing our development in phases to ensure we are delivering finished lots at a pace that matches market demand, consistent with our focus on capital efficiency and returns. At June 30th, 53% of our owned lots were sourced by Forestar, up from 51% a year ago. As Jim said, 43% of lots sold in the quarter were from projects sourced by Forestar, up from 16% a year ago.
That percentage will continue to trend higher as more Forestar-sourced projects start to deliver lots. We also have good visibility into future revenues. Of our 65,300 owned lots, 30% are under contract to sell to D.R. Horton, representing approximately $1.5 billion of future revenue. Additionally, 29% of our owned lots are subject to a right of first offer to D.R. Horton based on executed purchase and sale agreements. Jim?
Forestar remains focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet with ample liquidity and modest leverage. At quarter end, we had approximately $500 million of liquidity, including $150 million of unrestricted cash and $350 million of available capacity on our revolving credit facility. Total debt at June 30th was $706 million, with no senior note maturities until 2026, and our net debt to capital ratio at quarter end was 32.8%. Forestar's capital structure is one of our key competitive advantages. Most traditional land developers are encumbered by project-level financing, which makes it more difficult to react to changing market conditions while adding complexity and administrative costs. Our strong liquidity and corporate-level financing enable us to effectively operate through changing economic conditions and positions us to be opportunistic when attractive opportunities present themselves.
At quarter end, stockholders' equity was $1.15 billion, and our book value per share increased to $23.05, up 18% from a year ago. Dan?
We expect the environment will remain challenging due to rising interest rates, persistent inflation, continued municipality delays, and shortages of certain materials. However, our teams are relentless problem solvers, and they continue to navigate this environment exceptionally well. We'll continue to be proactive in the areas we can control. As I said in my opening remarks, we expect new home starts will continue to moderate. We also expect to experience a brief period of reduced lot deliveries. As outlined in our press release, we are updating our guidance for fiscal 2022.
We now expect our pre-tax profit margin to be approximately 14.25% for the year, consistent with the midpoint of our prior range of 14% to 14.5%. We expect to deliver approximately 17,000 lots this year, generating roughly $1.425 billion of revenue compared to our prior guidance of between 19,500 and 20,000 lot deliveries, generating $1.7 billion of revenue. Finally, we still expect our effective tax rate in fiscal 2022 to be approximately 24.5%. Although the uncertainty of this market transition may persist for some time, we remain positive on the long-term demand outlook for finished lots and our ability to gain market share in the fragmented lot development industry.
We believe that home builders will continue to shift their focus towards buying finished lots from third-party developers instead of self-developing. With our national footprint, strong balance sheet, and seasoned management team that is experienced in navigating through market cycles, Forestar is extremely well-positioned to deliver further value to our shareholders. John, at this time, we will now open the line for questions.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the floor is now open for questions. If you have any questions or comments, please press star one on your touchtone phone. We ask that while posing your question, you please pick up your handset if listening on speaker phone to provide optimum sound quality. Please hold while we poll for questions. The first question is coming from Deepa Raghavan with Wells Fargo. Your line is live.
Hi. Good evening, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Dan, would you be able to talk about some of the markets where you expect to see housing slowdown impact the most? Also, are you looking to change your future land mix, as we have slowed down, perhaps can bring about some of those changes?
Well, I think at this point, I don't know that we've really seen the falloff in demand. Much of it is somewhat anticipated. You know, obviously from the release this morning on housing starts, single-family permits or starts are down about 16% year-over-year. At this point, I can't pinpoint any one market. We're just being cautious and attempting to adapt as market conditions continue to change. As far as our land strategy, there's nothing at this point that is changing our strategy. You know, about almost 2/3 of the lots that we own today were put under contract before 2021, so we feel very good about the basis in our land and our positions.
I think that we're, you know, diversified appropriately as it relates to, you know, current permits market by market. I actually feel really good about our current land and lot position.
Okay. You brought up the housing starts. Just curious, would you have a forecast for housing starts next year? I do appreciate you do have the opportunity to take share in a down cycle, but you know, at a high level, what level of housing starts would you be planning your business for in 2023?
Well, actually, I was looking at the Wells Fargo report earlier today, so I think we got some of our information from your group. Right now, I think, you know, at least from your data, your estimate for next year is down about 2.5%-3% in single-family starts. Again, you know, I don't know how old that report was, and I think the market is changing pretty rapidly. Just over the last, you know, several weeks, we've seen, you know, builders start to moderate starts you know, kind of across the board.
All right. That's fair. My last question, if I can squeeze one in. Any way to think. Your release and also your prepared commentary mentioned moderating housing demand. You also mentioned municipal delays. Just curious, out of that, you know, close to 2,000 pullback in volume guide, how much would you attribute to municipal delays, and how much would you attribute to pullback in the housing market? That's the last question. Thanks.
Well, for this prior quarter, basically you know, as we were finishing lots, they were still being purchased. We did not really see the impact of what maybe the future's gonna bring in demand for those lots. As we finished lots, they were still sold. Our finished lot on our inventory really didn't change much quarter-over-quarter or year-over-year. We're staying pretty steady at that you know, at that number. You know, it's funny you know, and in all the prior calls you know, the last several calls and discussions I've had you know, a lot of the other builders have been talking about municipality delays, and you know, we really had not experienced it until this past quarter. It was came as somewhat of a surprise to us, but just really the delays in getting the paperwork finished, plats recorded, getting those final certifications from the municipalities. The lots were on the ground, but we just didn't have that, you know, the right ability to transact and sell that platted lot.
Okay. Thanks very much. Good luck.
Okay. Thank you.
Okay. The next question is coming from Truman Patterson with Wolfe Research. Your line is live.
Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I do apologize. I was having a hard time hearing Deepa. If I you know double up on questions, I apologize. It looks like you all pulled back a bit on land activity during the quarter based on your lot count. I'm just hoping you can give us kind of the lay of the land from a competition standpoint, whether builders have generally paused bidding on certain parcels in the market. You know, are you hearing many are attempting to renegotiate kind of option land terms? Whether there are any metros that you're actually starting to see land prices soften a bit sequentially.
First, actually, if you really look back at our lot inventory over the past year, we really kind of started slowing our land acquisition about a year ago, and we stayed pretty steady year-over-year in our owned and controlled lots. As far as markets and what other builders are doing, we're clearly hearing about builders dropping contracts. We're seeing that firsthand in some instances where the land that was tied up by builders, they're just letting those contracts go and are coming back into the market. I don't know that has translated into reduced land prices yet. I think it'll probably take a little longer for the landowners to realize that, you know, maybe the value they had contracted at before was overstated.
Although we do anticipate seeing that, you know, sometime later this year, that we expect, you know, landowners to maybe get a little more realistic about some of the pricing and the terms. I mean, some of it wasn't prices as much as it was terms that really tightened up. You know, as far as short due diligence periods and closing on untitled land was, you know, kind of became the norm there for a while for other land buyers. I expect that will soften, but, again, I don't know that we have seen that in the marketplace yet.
Okay. Okay, thanks for that. You know, with rates moving higher and, you know, home buyer demand has clearly cooled a bit here. You all have mentioned the, you know, financing competitive advantage over your peers. I'm just trying to understand what the strategy is over the coming, we'll call it, you know, 12 months. I think you were talking about, you know, single-family starts being down a little bit earlier. Do you take advantage of the slowdown, really go out and capture incremental market share, perhaps even grow the land bank, or do you shore up a bit of cash, and maybe even just develop and liquidate, you know, a portion of your current owned land bank?
Well, we're gonna be constantly looking for those opportunities. If we see attractive opportunities to buy land in good locations at good prices, you know, that's one of the reasons we wanna keep a strong balance sheet with a lot of liquidity, is to be able to take advantage of those opportunities. We don't feel that the same need that maybe we did a couple of years ago to go out and build up our land portfolio. Again, we expect that pricing will become more reasonable and terms will become more reasonable as the year progresses. From a day-to-day, you know, we are looking at starts in each of the subdivisions that we have.
We're looking at the underlying sales and trying to make sure we're monitoring and adjusting our lot deliveries as best as we can, maybe potentially staging lots in a partially completed fashion so that we can quickly react, you know, when demand changes and turns around. I think everybody's out there experimenting a little bit with some reduced starts. Again, it's not necessarily every subdivision, but in many places where maybe spec inventory had grown or the builders, you know, loaded up on some finished lots, we expect some moderation for the time being. Again, it's really just kind of watching it as closely as we can and adapting as quickly as we can.
Okay. Then one final for me. You know, clearly a third of your land bank is optioned or controlled deals, which, you know, have a pretty attractive basis given the land appreciation in the past couple of years. I'm just hoping you can help us think through, like, what would market conditions really need to look like before you might, you know, just step aside from some of that optioned land?
You know, again, I think it's really on a project-by-project basis, and we'll be looking at, you know, one, what other land do we own in that area, what our lot positions are, what the sales activity looks like, and trying to make sure that we aren't too long on land in those markets. It's, again, if you think about how we're focused on our returns, it's making sure that the cash that we're deploying, we can return relatively quickly. So I don't know that there's any widespread answer for your question, but because it really is gonna be done on a deal-by-deal basis and, you know, a sub-market-by-sub-market basis.
Okay, gotcha. When you're thinking through it's a bit more about, you know, the amount of land that you have in a market rather than, you know, any level of, you know, price declines or anything like that in the land market.
Yeah. Again, we hope to be able to take advantage of opportunities as they come up, but right now it's pretty darn granular. I mean, we literally spend, you know, lots of our day, parts of every day, you know, going through project by project and understanding the local inventory and the project inventory as we make decisions on putting lots into development or slowing development and/or looking at, you know, future land purchases.
Okay, perfect. Thanks for taking my questions, and good luck in the upcoming quarter.
Great. Thanks, Truman.
Okay, up next, we have Max Downey with BTIG. Max, your line is live.
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. On the material side, are there any particular materials that are causing delays right now?
There's two that are probably the most prominent. One of them is getting transformers from the power companies to get subdivisions hot with electricity. You know, it seems to be kinda widespread. It's not just one location versus another, but I'd say that's probably the most common problem we're having is actually lots can be done, but we just can't get electricity to them, waiting on that utility company. You know, the second is actually reinforced concrete pipe, and it's. There's a lot of that pipe is made, you know, in locations close to our projects. It isn't shipped at long distance. It isn't necessarily the pipe itself, but it's the reinforcing wire that goes in that pipe, and there seems to be a shortage of that.
Again, the best we can determine is it's, you know, there's a shortage that's pretty national in scope, as I think most of it's made in China and sent over here, and then the pipe is made locally. That's probably the two biggest areas that we're experiencing material delays.
Got it. Thank you. That's really helpful. My second question is, last quarter, you guys discussed an interest from the build-to-rent operators for some of your assets. Have you seen a change in demand or interest either up or down this quarter? Do you have any updated thoughts on the space in general?
At this point, we're still seeing the demand to be strong. We expect maybe pricing might be, you know, as we look to sell additional parcels, we think pricing might be a little softer because I think interest rates have gone up and at least the appearance of cap rates has gone up a little bit and as they back into what they can pay for developed land. You know, we are continually looking at the space. We have sold some, you know, some parcels to that space. That was happening to be a unique transaction in the way that it was structured, which, you know, probably brought a little more visibility to that particular transaction.
Yeah, we would continue to look at the build-for-rent market as a viable demand for lots in our subdivisions.
Awesome. Thanks so much, guys.
Thanks.
Once again, if there are any remaining questions or comments, please indicate so by pressing star one on your touchtone phone. Up next, we have Anthony Pettinari with Citigroup. Anthony, your line is live.
Hi, this is Asher Sohnen on for Anthony. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanna know, you know, what kind of home price or home sales volumes, you know, decline scenario would you have to see materialize before you could start thinking about potential impairments to your book, if any?
You know, that's always a hard question. When I think about home prices, there's a couple of factors that I think have driven home prices up. One is I think builders have been able to increase their margins over what may have been a historical run rate, and a lot of their material costs have run up. I think, you know, if there's gonna be some price adjusting downward, there's room before it gets to the lot prices themselves. So far we haven't seen any pushback on our lot pricing. I think, you know, again, a lot of our portfolio was tied up and put under contract, you know, before 2021, so we feel really good about our land basis.
It'll really be looked at on a, again, on a project-by-project basis if we see that prices have fallen substantially. I think there's room for builders to give incentives and adjust pricing, you know, for quite a bit before it would impact lot prices.
Thanks. That's helpful. Another question I had was, you know, your full year guide seems to imply, you know, pretty strong year-over-year decline in volumes in the fourth quarter. Obviously, you're not guiding to 2023 yet, but, you know, just directionally. Should we think about 4Q as being maybe a good run rate for the next—the following year? Or could it be some re-acceleration in fiscal 1Q 2023 as maybe some of the delays you're seeing in 4Q, you know, kind of get delivered in 1Q? Is that how we should think about it?
Yeah, again, I'm not really you know, we're not giving guidance for a good reason. It's the future's a little bit unclear. We don't really know what it's gonna look like. We're gonna be positioned to really retain the growth rate that which we could have achieved if the market hadn't changed on us. I think every week we get smarter as we see sales results come in as to how this is all gonna unfold. Obviously, you know, The Fed are still talking about further interest rate rises. We just don't really know what to expect, but we're positioned to be able to retain the run rates that which we have been operating at. I wouldn't really view anything in Q4 and look forward at this point.
Okay, thanks. That's really helpful. I'll turn it over.
Okay, up next we have Mike Rehaut with JPMorgan. Your line is live.
Thanks. Good afternoon, everyone. I'm just curious on the reduced lot delivery guidance for fiscal 2022, you know, nearly about 3,000 lots. How should we think of that in terms of, you know, the two different reasons that you cited, you know, being municipal delays versus, you know, builders walking away from the option contracts?
Yeah. I'll just deal with the second one first. You know, I don't really see builders walking away from option contracts, at least at this stage of the game for us. What we have is contracts that sell those lots. Every one of them is still in compliance with the terms of those contracts. We don't have any contracts that are in default. If anything, you know, builders got ahead of the required takes in those contracts and have a little bit of room to adjust before we would have to change those contracts and prices. Some of it is just kind of a finger in the wind, to be honest with you, as to what we're expecting to see in changing demand.
Some of it is those continued delays in the, you know, getting municipalities to really sign off. I mean, the delays, say, went from us not really seeing anything to pretty significant delays in getting plats approved. I don't know if it's understaffing or it happened to be the summer months, and there were a lot of people on vacation. Clearly, for us, it was a widespread change in the ability to get those plats recorded and get final lot certifications through the municipality. I don't know how to handicap one versus the other. I think it's probably a pretty even blend between the two.
In other words, maybe it's roughly 50/50, but aside from the municipal delays, the other main reason, not necessarily walking away from the option contract, but more just delays, a slower market and reduced takedowns or pushed out takedowns. Is that fair to say?
Yep, that's right. I think the builders are in the process of adjusting their starts, and I expect that they won't be accelerating those lot takedowns like they had been in the past.
Right. Okay. You know, next, you know, just on the gross margins, you know, trying to, and maybe the SG&A as well, and this might be more of a question for Jim. When you kinda triangulate the 14.25 pretax margin, you know, it seems like, I mean, you did on the SG&A side, you know, $24 million this quarter and last. If you kind of extrapolate and keep that at $24 million, you're looking at, you know, 6.5% SG&A, and then that would require, you know, a 20%-ish type of gross margin for the fourth quarter, for it to flow through. Is that the right way to think about it?
You know, should we expect any type of significant dollar cuts to run rates off of the $24 million of SG&A that you've posted each of the last couple quarters?
No, I think the way you're thinking about it is right. I mean, our gross margin was a little higher in the third quarter. We just really due to mix. We had some communities with, you know, just higher margins in the mix this quarter, and we expect that to kind of revert back to more what the margin was in Q2. But again, you know, we also had a strong delivery of Forestar sourced lots, which helped, and no lot banking. So I think fourth quarter margins probably look more similar to Q2. Our SG&A run rate in terms of dollars, probably very similar, but you know, on lower volume. So, you know, we probably won't have the operating leverage that we originally expected to have.
Right. I guess just extrapolating and understanding you're not giving guidance yet for next year, but to the extent that you continue to put out like a ±$300 million a quarter run rate, as it looks like you're kind of more or less gonna hit in the back half, would that. If that were to persist, should we be expecting any type of cuts off of the SG&A on a dollar basis? Or, you know, just in order to maintain the infrastructure that you've built and what you wanna try and create over the next several years, you're okay with a little bit of de-leveraging?
Yeah, I think for right now, what we don't wanna do is overreact. We have built, you know, a great platform. You know, you will notice if you look at our headcount, we were pretty flat quarter-over-quarter for the first time in, you know, actually since the time of the transaction with Horton four and a half years ago. We expect to probably hold that flat, at least for now. You know, obviously we can adjust later down the road, but what we don't wanna do is overreact and start dismantling the fabulous team that we have. We intend to keep that team intact.
Right. One last one if I could, and I know it's a little repetitive, look maybe a little difficult to answer. You know, you're kind of now forecasting with the fourth quarter, you know, a lot delivery rate of, you know, ±3,500 a quarter. I know you said earlier in the call that you expect the reduced deliveries to be a brief period. You know, outside of, you know, further market slowing or deterioration, is this a, you know, number that, you know, everything else equal, you know, if the market stabilizes here, should be a little higher in the next few quarters? Or, you know, depending on municipal delays and further conservatism, it could be at this level or lower.
Again, I think we're gonna adapt as need be, but we are positioned to accelerate our lot deliveries, in the future back to that run rate. We don't expect that these municipal delays will continue. We think that it is something that's real today, but I wouldn't think that, you know, six or nine months from now that they will still be as severe as they've been recently. We expect that will come to fruition. Again, at this stage, we're still seeing the demand for the lots. Our anticipation is that it will soften. Again, right now, I don't really think it's gonna be that long. I think the builders are gonna try to right-size, you know, their inventory on a project-by-project basis.
As you know, as their building costs come down, we expect starts to kind of re-accelerate. We're just gonna keep continuing to monitor on a week-to-week and month-to-month basis and adjusting as we can.
Great. Thanks so much. Appreciate it.
Thank you.
Okay, we have no further questions in queue. I'd like to turn the floor back to Dan Bartok for closing remarks.
Thank you, John. Thank you to everyone on the Forestar team for your focus and hard work. We appreciate everyone's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you again in November to share our fourth quarter results. Thank you.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.