Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG)
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Citi's 2024 Global TMT Conference

Sep 5, 2024

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Good morning, everyone. My name is Pete Christiansen. I'm on Citi's Equity Research Team, covering business services, fintech, crypto, a bunch of things. Great to have Paul Abbott, CEO of Amex GBT, on board, along with Karen Williams, the CFO. Great to have you guys back again this year, for an interesting conversation.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Thank you.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

It's been quite a year for GBT. Little acquisition in there. We can talk about that in a little bit.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Sure.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

But first, I think I always like to start off with the end market demand environment, what you're kind of seeing, which is... it's almost diverged from what we're hearing on the consumer travel side. It seems like corporate travel is still seeing some pretty healthy trends. In 2Q, the company reached 4% transaction growth, 5% TTV growth, 6% in revenue, despite, you know, some impact from the Olympics. And I'm just curious, your view now, state of the union in terms of corporate travel, what are some of the key trends that you're seeing?

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Yeah, well, I think with Pete, when we've spoken before, we said that, you know, we think that, this year really presented an opportunity for us to show how in a kind of normalized growth environment, how our business model and how our financial model really, really works. And we guided to 6%-9% revenue growth, 18%-32% Adjusted EBITDA growth. You know, and, you know, we're seeing, you know, growth rates in that range. You know, we're seeing the revenues, you know, at the lower end of that range, primarily because, you know, the macro environment, which is, you know, a little softer than perhaps we would all like.

But it's played out, you know, pretty much as we expected, that travel, business travel is growing at, you know, or slightly above GDP, plus then the share gains that, you know, that we put on top of that. And, you know, as we've spoken about before, you know, our business is not a business that needs 10%, 15%, 20% top-line growth to deliver 10%, 15%, 20% bottom line growth.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

You know, in that six to eight percent growth range, if we're in that, then we can deliver 15-20% bottom line growth, and that's frankly exactly how the year has played out so far, which is good.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

One of the things I think is interesting this year is, and it speaks to the diversity of the model between the global multinationals and the SME. We've seen SME see some compressed growth a little bit of late, but we're seeing GMN pick that up. Maybe you could talk about some of the dynamics that you're seeing across those.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Yeah, sure. I mean, look, I think the great thing about our business is that the diversity of it is a strength. You know-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

... we're actually pretty evenly balanced now, 50% SME, 50% global multinational. So we're pretty balanced across geography, and segment, and industry sector. You know, you're always gonna see, you know, some pluses and minuses in certain segments and certain geos. But I think the good news is for us, last year, SME was by far the fastest growing segment for us, and this year it's global multinational. You know, and as I say, our the diversity of our business, I think, you know, I enables us to manage through those different scenarios well. But you know, I think what we're seeing at the next level down, you know, is frankly what you see across all business services categories and what you see more broadly in, you know, the hard spending data from businesses as well.

You've seen a sequential decline in sort of same-store sales growth from SMEs from around Q3 of last year, and we've certainly seen that, and when we go out and survey customers, and when we look at the data that's available, you know, more broadly across other categories, it's a pretty simple story.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

You know, interest rates, you know, have been at an elevated level now for a long period of time. Small to mid-sized businesses are more exposed to lending costs, and what we hear from small to mid-sized businesses is, "Look, we are having to tighten our belts in, you know, this environment." So what we are hoping for is some, you know, interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, and that gives a little bit more confidence to the SME sector. And as we get into 2025, we'll start to hopefully see a little bit more activity from the SME sector. On global multinationals, that's actually been a lot more resilient, a lot more robust.

And I think what's, again, pleasing is within that global multinational growth, we're seeing strong growth rates across multiple industry sectors. Technology sector's up 9% for us, and we have double-digit growth in pharma and healthcare, and professional services, and financial services. So broad-based, solid growth rates across multiple industry categories in global multinational.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

I do wanna hit on the vertical thing in a bit, but I wanna talk about a little bit about the impact of inflation. Obviously, GMN, it makes sense. Budgets were recalibrated to handle the cumulative inflation that you've seen in travel over the last couple of years. It's tougher for SMEs. What are you seeing out in terms of the inflation front for corporate travel now? And I hate to put you on the spot, but like, how do you think that's gonna fold into budget decisioning for a lot of these companies?

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Yeah, well, the average U.S. domestic airfare for us-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

... you know, is up 24%, you know, versus two years ago. So if you're a small to mid-sized business and your interest expense has gone up, and you're having to pay 20% more for the average trip, then that is going to put economic pressure on your business, and it is going to have some impact on demand, right? There's no, there's no doubt about that, and that's certainly what we're seeing, but to your earlier point, you know, businesses do have to you know, recalibrate and reset those budgets, and I think that broadly speaking, that's what happened in global multinational segment. We went out and did a survey of the top 100 global multinational customers in Q2.

They predicted 10% spend growth this year for the full year, which would imply 6%-7% growth from that segment in the second half of this year. When we went out to the top 100 SME customers, there was also actually an increase in positive sentiment and spend for the second half of this year and into 2025. So I think both those data points are encouraging.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Beyond capturing inflationary effects. So it's really ticketing that-

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Yes.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Okay.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Yes.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

The transaction growth. That's solid. Okay, well, that's encouraging, and then I think you're right. When we do see a more favorable interest rate environment, perhaps, that would be good for SME.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Yeah.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

But despite, you know, some of the leveling off in activity there, the new bookings and the wins that you're seeing there have still been pretty strong. Can you talk about maybe has the value proposition changed from onboarding those who are not using a managed service, or is it balance of trade versus competitors?

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Mm.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

If you could just give us a little bit of that dynamic on the SME side and how new bookings continue to be strong?

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Yeah, sure. Well, look, a lot has changed over the last three or four years.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Sure.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

I mean, we had 25% of our business coming from SME customers. We now have 50% coming from SME customers, and we've made changes in, I'd say, two key areas. The first one is in the product set.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

So we built out a much, much broader product set for SMEs. We launched a product called Neo1 , which is a spend management platform for small to mid-sized businesses, and, you know, that effectively does procurement of all indirect expenses, manages all of your travel and your travel-related expenses. So it's a turnkey solution for companies to essentially manage their expenses end to end. And within that, they have the ability to, in partnership with American Express, issue virtual cards to their employees for a whole bunch of different use cases. We also, of course, brought Egencia into Amex GBT, which is the leading B2B SaaS platform in travel, and that's a turnkey solution for companies that are using, you know, a SaaS solution for managing a whole series of other categories. Why not have a turnkey SaaS solution for travel?

And then we obviously added that to our existing Amex GBT Select solutions. So we've broadened out the product set so that we're relevant to more and more SME customers, and we've also spent a lot of time and investment dollars building out the channels. So more investment in digital acquisition, more investment in our lead qualification-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Mm-hmm

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

... channels, in our telesales channel, and our field sales channel. So I would say the majority of that is now behind us. We feel really good about the product set and the channels. So where we're really focused now in SME is making sure that we're investing in both of those things, right? Investing in a product set to keep it more and more differentiated, and investing more and more in optimizing the sales channels and getting more productivity out of the sales channels. So it's really... We're in this period now, I would say, characterized as being more about scale and productivity. You know, the product set and the channels are in really good shape.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

I don't really think about Neo as, like, a real needle mover on the SME booking side. Is that a real, you know, fill a really big gap for the SMEs that you're targeting to onboard? I mean, is that... Is it a big-

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

It definitely helps in that-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Yeah

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

... in that unmanaged segment. I mean, the SMEs opportunity for us is $900 billion.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Of that $900 billion, $600 billion of it is unmanaged. What we mean by unmanaged is customers that are going to OTAs and suppliers direct, who have no professionally managed program at all. In that unmanaged segment, some of those customers are maybe not spending enough on travel to make it their primary focus. So if you're going out and just selling a travel solution, you might be relevant to this this percentage of customers. But if you're going out and saying, "Look, I can help you manage all of your indirect procurement, I can help you manage the purchasing of your office supplies, I can help you manage the purchasing of all of your indirect expenses," and within that platform, you can issue virtual cards to employees to buy whatever spend categories you want, and you can control the spend on those different-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Mm-hmm

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

... and the limits on those spend categories, and it gives you access to a travel and expense portal for managing your travel and your expenses. Every company needs to manage indirect expenses. So we become relevant-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Mm

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

... to a much, much larger set of SME customers, and that's important, especially as you move more and more into the unmanaged space.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

You've got to have a broader value proposition that resonates with a larger set of customers. So that, that's really what Neo1 does for us.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

That, and I imagine also the relationship with Amex itself being a, a-

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Absolutely

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

... big advantage.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

I mean, integration of payment is so important to-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

... a lot of mid-sized businesses, they don't want to issue corporate cards to every individual. They have temporary employees. They have people they're flying in for interviews, you know?

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

But if you can issue a virtual card for a specific purpose and with specific limits, you can fund the procurement of pretty much all of your activities.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

So it is a game changer. It takes time also just, frankly, to explain the use cases and to-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

... educate customers on how powerful it can be and how it can be used. But it's, this is a very important year. We've launched that in the U.S. and the U.K., and we expect to, you know, like, more than double the number of customers on the Neo1 platform this year, so.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

What does that spell for usage of the virtual card solution as well?

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Yeah, like I said, early, early days. I mean, the campaigns with Amex really started at the beginning of Q2-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Mm-hmm

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

... to go out to the Amex card member base and sell, you know, Neo1 into that, into that base. So we're at the beginning of that journey now. The product is operating exactly as we want it with the virtual card integration. So I'd say more to come on that in terms of, you know, actual volumes and results as we get through this year.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

... No, it's an exciting part. It's an area that we focus a lot on the fintech side, and obviously, travel is a great use case for that type of product. That's great to hear. I do wanna dig in a little bit on some of the vertical call-outs that you just had, specifically from tech, because it's my understanding that was one of the more the hardest hit or the hardest to recover following COVID. So it's great to see you're at high upper single-digit growth there in the tech area. Any thoughts on... I mean, there's still a lot of work from home that's going on, particularly in that industry, as they try to source adequate labor, all that.

What some boots on the ground observations would you say about that particular vertical and how that could contribute to growth over the next year or so?

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Yeah, well, I mean, that growth rate back in Q3 and Q4 was, like, 30%-50% growth-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

because, you know, the tech sector was obviously a little bit slower in terms of recovery from the pandemic, but also they'd had their own sort of mini recession, so to speak, in terms of the-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

That's true

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

... the pressures that were on that tech sector. So we're now starting to lap those very, very strong growth rates. So I would say that we're seeing more normalized growth now. So I would expect those growth rates to continue, and I think it's very, you know, well-recognized publicly. Many of those big tech companies have now started to encourage more return to office. But where they're not encouraging return to office, they are absolutely encouraging bringing teams together on a regular basis. That's obviously very positive for both our business travel volumes, but also our meetings and events business.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

That was a big theory years ago, certainly around the time of the IPO. I remember discussing that at length. Yes, there's this big work from home element, but they will need to actually travel more, to for-

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Absolutely

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

... team meetings and all that kind of stuff.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Yeah.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Are you seeing that?

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Yeah, absolutely seeing that. You actually see a new generation of business travelers.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

These are people who used to commute, and they-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

... when you commute, it's not business travel.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Mm-hmm.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

But when you're based at home and the company, you know, then asks you to come in for training or asks you to come in for team meetings, that becomes business travel.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

So you've got a new sort of generation of business travelers that maybe didn't travel before, but now are, which is, you know, obviously very positive for us.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

And then other areas that are still kind of recovering, APAC, obviously, that's been a big comeback story here, certainly versus, you know, the maturation of the recovery in the Americas and in EMEA as well. You know, how are you thinking about that specific geography and their performance lately? And how should investors kinda gauge their expectations, do you think?

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Yeah, look, I think that we're starting to see that gap narrow a bit. And APAC is still the fastest performing region. It was growing at 17% versus the Americas at 5% in the second quarter. You know, I do think we're going to see that gap narrow, but we still expect Asia Pacific to grow significantly ahead of the other regions over the next three to five years. We do think that trend is absolutely gonna continue.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

That's great. Very encouraging to hear that. I do wanna pivot or I wanna talk about CWT and how transformational that can be for the company as it scales. $570 million cash/debt, debt-free basis, funded with cash and shares, I'm sorry. What updates can you give us on how the transaction is going forth? Any updates to share with anybody?

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

We're going through the regulatory process at the moment, going through the appropriate approvals with the regulators. We expect the transaction to close in first quarter of 2025, which would be a great way to start next year. It is a very exciting opportunity for us. It'll grow our revenues by 34%, grow our sales by about 40%, give us the opportunity to welcome over 3,000 new customers, you know, onto the Amex GBT platform and give them access to the value and choice that we can provide. And also, it's a very attractive financial transaction that's going to add around $230 million of profits to the bottom line, when you look at the run rate profitability and the $155 million of synergies that we have.

You know, that's a post-synergy multiple of around two and a half times. So, you know, hope to close in Q1. Hope to then start the important business of creating more value and choice for the CWT customers that are coming across, and then delivering on the financial returns, which, as I said, we see is very attractive.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Now, the marketplace obviously knows that this deal is happening. I'm sure a lot of enterprise users who are using CWT or maybe even another competitor are seeing that. Has that stalled their decision process at all? Perhaps say, "You know what? I don't need to switch to GBT this year. I'll go along with the merger," that kind of thing. Are you seeing any of that type of activity?

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

No, we haven't seen that kind of activity. You know, I think big companies that initiate procurement processes continue as usual. You know, it's a very competitive segment, very competitive space. You know, I think there are many, many other competitors out there that will just get added to the procurement list. So we have not seen any change in customers' buying behavior, no.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Any updates on, particularly in GMN, RFP activity? I guess historically, you know, how do you think it's stacking up, you know, currently versus previous periods?

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

I would say pretty consistent. I mean, we've consistently gained share in that global multinational segment, because of, I think, the investments we've made in both software and services, and you know, I would say we expect that to continue. You know, we feel good about the value proposition that we have in that segment. But I would say the activity itself is pretty consistent, and you see that in the new wins, you know, volume. Yeah, I think new wins last 12 months were $3.3 billion, and about $1.3 billion of that was coming from global multinational and $2 billion of that from SME.

So around 2/3 of the wins from SME, 1/3 from global multinational, which is kind of the mix that we've been at really for the last sort of 12 months or so.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Has the sales, I guess, the sales motions or at least the client priorities from the GMN side, has that changed at all? Is it... You know, what's the number one focus? Is it more of these tech-enabled solutions, these add-ons, that kind of thing? Is it service reliability? Is it pricing that you get through your partners? Like, how has that ranking of their pecking list changed at all?

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

It's all of the above, right?

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Yeah.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Even companies with very sophisticated buyers, there's no one silver bullet, you know. They're looking for excellence across a range of different categories, but the way we think about it is in four areas, right? Number one is really about, you know, value, and for us, that's content, giving the access to a marketplace with the best content, the best fares, the best rates, the most comprehensive content in the marketplace. That's extremely important. Second area is choice. You know, I think these are big, sophisticated buyers that are looking, you know, for, not for a one-size-fits-all solution, but looking to be able to configure what's right for them and to be able to select their choice of technology. That's definitely important. Then experience for both the travel buyer and the traveler is always really important.

What's really dialed up there is, you know, the technology solutions-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Mm.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Within that experience, but it's still about bringing the best people and the best technology together.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

It's still about blending software and services, and we think that's our sweet spot. We have market-leading software solutions and services, and I think for global customers, increasingly, it's about making sure you integrate those really, really well and that you deliver them on a consistent basis around the world. So, you know, those really are the key areas, and then, of course, for big companies, privacy, service, security, safety, these remain very, very, very important areas of focus. So for big companies, you've got to tick all those boxes.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

A lot of boxes.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Yeah.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

I would imagine, like, as you get more scale, particularly post this transaction, you know, that it gives you a little bit more leverage across the supplier base. Maybe you could drive, improve rates for your underlying clients, drive some more efficiencies for them that could be... make the platform even more attractive. Is that part of the calculus that do you think is rationale?

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Yeah, look, efficiency, definitely. I mean, you know, the synergies from the potential CWT acquisition, you know, we have $155 million of net, you know, cost synergies. And obviously, that's a very important underlying part of the transaction. Scale definitely brings efficiencies, and customers are looking for us to improve, you know, our efficiency and our cost performance, and obviously, suppliers continue to look for us to-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

... to deliver efficiencies as well. So yeah, so yes, scale definitely helps in terms of delivering efficiencies, and efficiencies are very important.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

I know it's early, and obviously, the deal is yet to be closed, but you know, how should we think about, you know, at least a sketch of what that integration cycle could look like?

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Karen, you should pick up on this one.

Karen Williams
CFO, Amex GBT

Yeah, sure. So, as we, as we've talked previously in terms of those synergies and as we, as we think about the realization, we really see that over a three-year period. But, you know, 35% will be in the first year. We've got confidence in terms of that. And then, as, you know, meaningful amount in that second year, with just a small portion in that third year. So think about it as really those first two years as being the critical times as we think about bringing them in, integrating them into the business.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right. And that pitch to onboard that former C, CWT client, do you envision that, you know, that being a challenging transition? Like, what are some of the challenges and opportunities that you see in transitioning some of those enterprise clients to the GBT platform?

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

We've got a fair amount of experience at integrating-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Mm-hmm

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

... you know, businesses, and we know that you know, ultimately, you have to work very, very closely with each and every customer to make sure that you manage that process and manage it successfully. You know, customers are going to want to know how are they going to get more value from us? How are they gonna get access to better content? How are they gonna get access to better technology? How are they gonna make sure they're on a platform that is not just ready for today's distribution environment, but for tomorrow's, including new content and NDC? Customers will wanna make sure that we're delivering, you know, the service levels that they're expecting.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

And we're absolutely ready to take on that challenge and make sure that we're delivering in all of those areas for the customers. You know, ultimately, it's a very strong partnership with each customer to make sure that process works well, and they'll want to know what's in it for them and how they're gonna benefit from it.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Yeah

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

... and as they should.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

... I think of it almost like, I'm glad you touched upon NDC. I think of it almost as an operating system, right? So the larger your operating system, that's where the developers are gonna flock, right? And I would imagine, you know, post CWT, but even existing right now, that you're a really important partner for the airlines as they get behind new content distribution, trying to drive more ancillary sales, that kind of thing. You know, how would you characterize where we are in that evolution right now, your partnership with the airlines there, and how are you driving value across the ecosystem?

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Oh, look, you're right. We are an important distribution channel for the airlines, and it's our job to create value for customers, but also to create value for our suppliers and our distribution partners. And we want to make sure that we have a marketplace that customers have access to the most comprehensive, most competitive content in the industry. But we also want to have a marketplace that airlines and other suppliers say, this is the most sophisticated modern retailing marketplace.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

This enables me to retail my products the way I want to. Which is why we've been making the investments, you know, in Neo, in Egencia, in our marketplace, so that, you know, we are NDC ready. We're already operating with 20 different airlines on NDC. We are seeing, you know, really good increases in NDC volumes going through our platforms. And that's because, you know, we want to work with suppliers in a way that they see our marketplace as, you know, the most efficient and the most effective distribution channel for them.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

I do want to talk a little bit, Karen, on the second half financial playbook. Right now, I guess we're targeting 60-something% growth in the second half, adjusting operating expense growth of 2%-3% growth there. If you could walk us through some of the scenarios, what could change as macro headwinds versus potential upside if we get a Fed pivot, SME kind of comes in. If you can walk through some scenarios there that could potentially arise, and how did you come to your second half outlook?

Karen Williams
CFO, Amex GBT

Yeah, sure. And I guess, yeah, we're always looking at bookends, and everyone is now scenario planning on the what if. And if you go back to Q2, when you know, a month ago, we talked about our outlook, as we talk about our full year guidance, and Paul has already alluded to this, but the 6%-9% in terms of revenue growth, 18%-32% in terms of Adjusted EBITDA, and we reiterated that. The point we made, though, was that we expect to be at the lower end of the revenue guide, but confidence in terms of the midpoint of Adjusted EBITDA, which really comes back to the actions that we have taken during 2023, actually, and 2024, because there was some carryover in terms of the $100 million of cost save.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Mm-hmm.

Karen Williams
CFO, Amex GBT

And we're still investing, so it's net of that. But that's what gives us confidence in terms of the outlook. And, you know, from a volume perspective, as I say, there's scenarios, but the one piece that, you know, we will see, we do expect to see is really that impact that we saw from the Olympics, that we will circle over that-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right

Karen Williams
CFO, Amex GBT

... come September. And September is a big month in business travel. And so it's very important and it's, you know, certainly me traveling in this week-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Mm-hmm

Karen Williams
CFO, Amex GBT

... it was incredibly busy, and so it feels like, as we have seen in prior years, that business travel was back in September.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

No, I wholeheartedly agree with you. But one thing you did, you kind of glanced over a little bit there, was you raised your free cash flow guidance by $30 million, which was quite impressive, and targeting over $130 million for the full year. A lot of that is the result of refinancing the debt stack a little bit. You know, how should we think about the progression of free cash flow generation for now? It seems to, you know, obviously pivoting off of last year, turning positive last year, now $130 million. It's quite attractive. It's getting more and more attractive. How should investors think about, you know, that progression, at least from the pieces?

You know, I won't hold you to a target or an absolute number, but, like, what are some of the pieces that could contribute to that continued growth?

Karen Williams
CFO, Amex GBT

Yes, sure. And yeah, as you say, we raised our guidance during Q2, and that was primarily driven by the refinancing, which we're, we were incredibly happy with that result, but also the continuation of the working capital initiative that we've had for the last 18 months that continues to perform above our expectations. So we feel really confident. As we think about the future, yeah, we've already seen getting to 45%-50% in terms of free cash flow conversion on Adjusted EBITDA, and so continuing the momentum that we have seen over the last few quarters.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

That is encouraging. That's a really important part of the story, certainly, that we hear from investors, so it's great.

Karen Williams
CFO, Amex GBT

One point, actually, Pete-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Sure

Karen Williams
CFO, Amex GBT

... that I would take this opportunity to call out as a result of kind of the refinancing and that cash generation. Yesterday, we did announce a $8 million share buyback, and that was really with a legacy shareholder approaching us in terms of their desire to sell. And we feel really good in terms of where we are on the, in terms of, as you think about our capital allocation and really ticking through those priorities, and this felt like a great opportunity. It really signals... management's confidence in terms of us. And also, you know, we felt it was, given it was at a discount, we also felt that it took away that risk in terms of the overhang,

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Sure.

Karen Williams
CFO, Amex GBT

That's another step in terms of our journey that we're feeling really good about.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

That's great. Good to hear that. We do have a little bit of time here left. I'm happy to open the floor to questions if there are any. I do want to touch upon a little bit upon some of the blockchain stuff as we talked about last quarter, 'cause of my particular interest. I think that's fascinating. If we can at least give an overview of the interest that you're seeing for this product. It's enabling end users to attribute sustainable fuel usage for airlines and for them to capture that.

Aside, moving past all the partners that are in between there, if you could just walk through that product and...

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Yeah, sure.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Some interest that you're hearing there.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Yeah, the product Pete's referring to is a product called Avelia, which is actually a partnership between us and Shell Aviation and Accenture. Maybe start with the problem that we're trying to solve. We want to aggregate the demand for sustainable aviation fuel, for obvious reasons. So it's the single most important thing we can do to reduce carbon emissions in our industry. But we also want to do that in a way that we can aggregate that demand, make it easy for customers to purchase sustainable aviation fuel, but also do it in a way that the customers can track and record the usage of that sustainable aviation fuel, so that they can count it towards their sustainability targets.

What Avelia does specifically is aggregates the demand, but also the blockchain is used to ensure that the purchase of the SAF and the utilization of the SAF is tracked and is recorded in the blockchain, and enables customers to then receive certification and to claim credit, you know, for the procurement of that SAF, irrespective of whether it was used in the actual aircraft you go on.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Right? Trying to get it used on the aircraft you go on is not a good idea. You don't want SAF produced in California, that then is put on a tanker, that's brought to London and injected into my aircraft.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Exactly.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

It's gonna burn more CO2 getting it there.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

There.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

You need a system that enables you to be able to buy the SAF and claim credit for it, even if it's used in the most intelligent place.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

You want it used as close to where it's produced as possible, otherwise you're just adding to the problem, right? So the blockchain, yeah, plays an important role in making sure that, you know, you can actually track and claim credit for the sustainable aviation fuel usage.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

I think that's fascinating. I love hearing stories about that. I do wanna wrap up, though, on everyone's favorite topic, AI. It was a big topic last year. And you and GBT did talk about a lot of initiatives there, particularly on cost of delivery, cost of service, that kind of thing. Yeah, maybe you could talk about the investment that you've seen there, maybe any results? And how are you thinking about spend investment spend towards AI initiatives going forward?

Karen Williams
CFO, Amex GBT

Yeah, sure. And I would say, like automation, machine learning AI, generative AI, we've been doing some of this. You know, this is not new.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Mm-hmm.

Karen Williams
CFO, Amex GBT

But certainly as we think about... We've talked about our margins getting to the mid-20s which is net of investment, and what will become more and more critical is that investment in terms of AI. And David obviously joined the call in Q2 to talk a little bit more and about it. But certainly as we think about those areas, there's really four areas that we've carved out from an organization perspective, that sit within tech around the opportunity, which is looking at the servicing side, it's looking at finance, the end-to-end process, and then our product engineers. So we see a huge opportunity, and it will continue to grow. But we're being...

I guess we're being very thoughtful in terms of the way that we approach this, and making sure that we have the use cases and then drive the momentum from that. And so, you know, it's always test and learn in this space. I don't know, Paul-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

I mean, you're seeking the Holy Grail, which is return on investment in understanding that, and that's, I think, what a lot of corporates are grappling with now. Some seeing some frustration, obviously, but that, I think it makes sense from the chatbot and the service area is seeing a lot of progress there. But that's good to hear that you're taking that approach. Should investors think that there's any particular areas that, you know, really should be the focus on that AI machine learning front? Maybe outside of just delivery cost side, maybe on this revenue generating side, maybe sales-

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

There are so many applications. I mean, the-

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

... I have to say, our primary focus with the AI initiatives is cost.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

It is efficiency and productivity, and that's why Karen said we've got a team looking at the servicing productivity gains, a team looking at finance processes, and particularly FP&A processes, where there's some really good proven use cases. Then we have a team, you know, looking at a kind of end-to-end business processes, like customer implementations, and then you've got actually a team looking at how do we improve the productivity of our software engineers?

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Right.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

You can use AI, obviously, to do the more simple coding. So that's the primary focus. But the point Karen made earlier, we've been using AI within Neo and Egencia for actually several years to improve the way that we've actually personalized the content that we display to customers. And it's in machine learning and AI is embedded into both Neo and Egencia. It's the way the software platforms work. So getting better and better at using, you know, data and AI to improve the customer experience within the software platforms is also very important.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

That's great. Good to see that you're starting to see the fruits of your labor in that area.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Yeah.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

I love the freak out.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Yeah.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Generally, we should keep that going. That's certainly some great progress here, and we're excited for a good second half, and best of luck with CWT.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Thanks very much, Pete.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Look forward for more updates there.

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Thanks, Pete.

Pete Christiansen
Director, Citi

Thank you again for coming this year. Always great to have you.

Karen Williams
CFO, Amex GBT

Thanks Pete .

Paul Abbott
CEO, Amex GBT

Thanks, Pete. See you soon.

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