All right. Well, thank you guys for being here for this panel. I think this is going to be a good one. We have Greenbrier here with us and Brian and Justin from the company. I'm going to let Justin take a few minutes to just sort of explain probably who they are and what they're about, but just to level set. We'll start there and then we'll dive off into the Q&A. So, go ahead.
Great. Thanks, Ben. Greenbrier is an international transport solution provider. We have operations in North America, South America, and Europe. We're either number one or number two in every location where we provide services. We have manufacturing in every country we operate. In North America, we also have an integrated business model where we manufacture the car, can maintain or repair the car, and then we also have a leasing business where we can lease cars, finance, provide regulatory and management oversight. We've delivered nearly 27,000 cars globally over the last 12 months and have been, I feel like, finally getting our stride coming out of COVID and with some of the supply chain and other issues. So, we're very well positioned for kind of the next few years.
And I would also like to welcome Brian Comstock. He is still an EVP, but he was recently promoted to President of the Americas. So, any hard questions on North America or South America, ask him and we'll go from there. Thank you.
All right. Thanks. So, there's a lot of different ways that we can go, but why don't we start with just the macro? Orders have been pretty good, but we're not at peak levels or certainly as fast as we need to go. What are you hearing from your customers? How are you seeing order flow progress? And along with that, what types of equipment are we talking about?
Sure. Sure. It's been kind of a unique, I'd say, 18 months or so. Despite a lot of contraction in other areas, the railcar OEM space has been pretty steady, pretty strong. We are in what we call the replacement cliff, which there's a lot of railcars that are falling out due to age and in some cases because they're uneconomical to repair. This is projected to continue really through the next four or five years. The build rates are roughly in the 40,000 units per year, which is a good, comfortable space. If you think about the past, you had the crude by rail boom and that kicked deliveries up into the 60,000, 70,000 range. Prior to that was the ethanol boom. Prior to that, telling my age a little bit, was coal cars when coal came in.
We don't see any impetus that's going to drive any kind of large demand going forward. But what's happened is the railcar OEMs, our competitors ourselves, have really rationalized space over the last several quarters. We've taken capacity out. They've taken capacity out. A lot of that capacity was expensive capacity. And as a result, it's kind of put us into a better position going forward.
So, and along those lines, appreciating that, well, I just came out of our rail panel and several of, really, the rail sponsors here are pretty optimistic that there's going to be some capacity to gain share over the truckload market, specifically in intermodal, which I believe that's maybe an area where there's a little bit too much capacity at the moment, if I'm not wrong. But you didn't seem to suggest that you're expecting a big takeoff of demand in that way.
Well, no, I think it's a good point. A little bit of history for those that aren't familiar, we invented the double-s tack railcar. So, we kind of started the whole changeover from what they called TOFC, COFC, which were flat cars where trucks were on flat cars to containers many, many decades ago. So, that's kind of fundamentally how we were born and who we are. We watch that space pretty closely. We think that there is going to be undoubtedly. I met with a number of the Class I CEOs here recently, especially the Western roads feel that there's going to be a big influx in the second half of the year.
A number of reasons pointing towards that, some of it's Panama Canal issues, some of it's East Coast port issues, some of it's the Red Sea problems, and some of it's just domestic spending, some of the consumers kind of retooling what they're focused on and what they're buying. We believe that's a tailwind if that comes to fruition, but currently we're not counting on that as part of what we look at our forecasts and we look at our future. So, we're thinking intermodal is going to be steady state, but if it does come up as a lot of people are predicting, I think that just tailwinds an opportunity for Greenbrier to continue to build on the momentum we have.
Are there railcar types that people are just sort of clamoring to get or is it just sort of good business in most areas?
You know, I've been, not to date myself, but I've been in the industry over 40 years now. I can tell you in the 40 years, I've never seen over the last 18 months as diverse of demand as I've seen in the railcar OEM space. It's everything from plastics and upstream and downstream chemicals from the ethane products to wood products, minerals, box cargo loads, automotive. It's very, very diverse and we continue to see that as we look at our order book and we continue to look at inquiries, it's still very diverse demand.
In that kind of environment where depends very much on what's being built, there's different pricing for different areas. At the same time, there's inflationary pressures. I mean, how is pricing trending for you guys and your ability to pass through that inflation?
Yeah. So, pricing has been extremely disciplined in the railcar space. It continues to improve, which is a good sign. And in our space, we've been able to pass through 100% of the inflationary costs from the get-go. It's a practice we started many years ago. So, commodity prices swing dramatically. And so, as a result, your costs can fluctuate quite substantially when you think about 80% of your total input is material-based. So, we've always had escalators and de-escalators for commodities. It's basically almost on a dollar-per-dollar basis of what your actual input cost is. And the same thing on interest rates on the leasing side is we've always had a treasury index that basically follows what the interest rate environment is doing.
Well, since you brought up leasing, that sounds to be the area of your business that you think has the best structural growth. Again, correct me if I'm wrong. But I'm curious how you think about that because ultimately leasing is your capital provider. We had GATX in this morning that does that for a living. How do you think about sort of your competitive advantage, your secret sauce, how you can go toe-to-toe against, in some cases, banks on the leasing front?
Justin, I'll let you take the first half and I'll chime in.
Yeah. I would say Greenbrier has been a leasing company in one form or another for 40 years plus. We've always had some type of a lease fleet on our balance sheet. It's just historically when we were much smaller and much more prone to cyclicality, we didn't necessarily feel like it made the most sense to expose ourselves to substantial leasing product from that perspective. Over the last 10 years, and then really with an acceleration after an acquisition in 2019, we realized that we really are originating a significant number of leases every year.
At that point, as we looked at our trajectory as a business, the stability that we largely had over the last decade, we felt it was time to grow this part of our business in a tax-efficient cash flow that is going to help to stabilize and reduce some of the cyclicality that we do bump into in manufacturing.
Yeah. And I think on the competitive side, being an OEM where we're building the assets, obviously we have some cost advantages that the operating lessors don't necessarily have. We've also been utilizing the ABS market for a lot of our funding and financing. And because of the high quality of portfolios, you get those rated. We've had a AA rated portfolio, which obviously then gives us better spreads. And so, we've been able to compete on a financing perspective pretty well also.
When obviously that increases the degree of cash flow visibility and so forth, if you could, again, not asking for a formal forecast or something, but five years from now, if things go right, where would you like that leasing fleet to be? And how do you think about what the company looks like in the longer term between OEM and leasing?
Yeah, that's a great question. I would say that we would probably have a leasing fleet in the 20,000 to 25,000 car range. Our recurring revenue or the revenue we derive from that would be heading towards $225 million to $250 million per year. With the reminder that this is, for us, it's a 65% to 70% margin generating business. It's beneficial. From a revenue perspective, it will never hold a candle to manufacturing. From a profitability perspective, it will be more proportionate in line with kind of what our manufacturing business is doing. I don't know if I'd say 50/50, but maybe approaching that.
Yeah. Our stated goals, we've come out and on our analyst calls, we've indicated that our investment profile is between $200 million to $300 million a year over the next five years. If you extrapolate that out, that gives you a fleet somewhere in the low 20s.
Right. And Justin, you were just talking about sort of margins. One of the things that in the last quarter had worked out pretty well was that you hit the margin, the 15% number that you guys were shooting at. And as you look forward, obviously there's been some rationalization of assets. I mean, what's a realistic number that, again, not this year or whatever, but as you think about if we can get this business running as well as we think we can, what kind of margins can it generate, do you think?
I would say that's a great question. I think what we've talked about in the past publicly is something in the upper teens. We don't view that 15%, which we achieved last quarter, as a finish line. It's more of a starting point for us and kind of where we need to be at more consistently. In the past, we have hit into the 20s when we were smaller and had a very, very robust rail cycle. I think at this point, because of our size, even getting kind of into an 18% margin range would be very lucrative and generate substantial income and cash flow for us. So, I think that's kind of probably as much as you'll get out of us aspirationally, but we definitely are working towards something in that range.
Well, just as I'm sitting here, help me understand. In theory, you would think that larger scale means actually there should be more margin potential, right? So, you're a bigger company. Why wouldn't if you had been able to get into the 20s in the past, isn't there some benefit?
Yeah. I would say that at that point, when we hit 20% to 22% in manufacturing and 20% overall, roughly, we were in a, I think, once-in-a-lifetime potentially crude rail cycle. It would be fascinating to go through that again, but I don't know if I want to sign us up for that.
Right. Okay. So, it had more to do with the cycle and less to do with the company. Okay.
Yeah. In the car type commodity because you look at the total capacity for tank cars at the time and demand far exceeded what capacity was available. And so, everybody was able to take advantage of the market dynamics.
Right. Well, the other half of margin, other than the revenue side, is the cost side. You guys have been working to reduce those costs. Maybe talk me through sort of where you are in that process and how far into these sort of right-sizing of the cost structure you are.
Yeah. I'll take maybe the first and then you can clean up. So, we're in the early innings of our continuous improvement cycle as it relates to cost. We learned a valuable lesson during the supply chain issues that we recently exited in that we realized we needed to control more of our own destiny. Trucking rates got, the spot rates got extremely high. Outsourcers near us became full with a lot of the nearshoring that's going on and we had to go further and further and further and it really hurt our cost profile. So, we started investing in bringing more of that in-house, doing our own insourcing. We're in the very early innings of that. That will roll out. I think we anticipate that that creates about $50 million worth of annual run rate savings. And we're starting to see that now a little bit this year. In 2024, we'll see more and in 2025 is when we really get into that run rate side of it.
Then the other piece that we embarked on last year was a capacity rationalization in North America where we had committed to taking at least $20 million of cost out and we did that on an annual basis with the sale of two facilities or businesses in 2023. We've achieved that goal, but we are not done yet necessarily and are following a similar path in Europe.
Right. So, you're hopefully driving up revenue, hopefully driving down costs. Obviously, part of that insourcing, there's some capital associated with it. How are you thinking about where the best dollars go moving forward?
Yeah. It's another good question. And for us, we think about it in this type of an environment, we want to have our manufacturing projects returning on kind of an 18-month to 2-year payback. And so, about 18 months is the expectation for the insourcing activity supporting the growth of our leasing business, which is levered about kind of 3-to-1. So, you only have about a 25% capital investment from that perspective, true capital. And then we do actually like to return capital to shareholders. So, we do have a dividend. We increased it by 11% last summer. We repurchased 1.9 million shares of stock and have a 45 million share repurchase. So, it's a balanced approach depending on where we're at and what we see. And then the other piece, as the treasurer of the company, I like to de-lever and reduce our debt profile. So, it's kind of a balance between those pieces.
Are there inorganic opportunities? And how do you weigh that in?
We do look at them. A lot of them are kind of more kind of tuck-in or corollary things. I would say with the shift in our management team and focus, we're a little less focused on growing, growing, growing, and driving top-line growth, but more focused on making the most of our existing footprint, exiting assets that don't necessarily perform. And then kind of shift back to kind of more of a growth kind of inorganic perspective. I would say our biggest thing right now is there are limits to how much you can kind of grow in North America on the manufacturing and maintenance side more from a truck perspective. So, there's definitely balance, but we do think that there are opportunities globally and I'd say we're pretty regularly kicking the tires on things.
Well, to that end, I mean, you guys have European business, you have South American business. Maybe talk me through where those two businesses at. I appreciate that they're not at the same scale as North America, but how do you think about those in the scope of things and where you'd like to see them develop?
Yeah. I'll maybe take a stab. So, in South America, it's just a good business. It's not a large business. It's about 1,500 cars a year. There's the opportunity with some of the expansions they're doing into the Amazon region and some of the grain they're bringing from Central Brazil out that could grow maybe double over the next couple of years, but it's always going to be limited because there's only so much opportunity. But it's a well-run machine and it is yielding dividends back to the parents. So, we're happy with that operation. Europe, on the other side, is really an interesting place today. There's a lot of demand in Europe. Our facilities are, we've got a couple of years' worth of backlog at our facilities and we see opportunity to grow.
We're spending a lot of time and capital and resource, human capital, and evaluating the existing footprint. We just had a contingent come down to Mexico and take a look at our high-volume operations and what we can do in Romania and Poland to produce more assets out of the existing footprint. We see that as a potential growth opportunity for us. We also recently entered the leasing market in Europe, which we hadn't done before. It's been a huge success for us. Now, when we lease, we're doing what we did here in North America, which is we're originating the leases and then we have financial partners, primarily private equity and other investors that will own the assets and then we manage and retain an annuity fee for managing the assets.
You mentioned Mexico. Obviously, there were some disruptions not too long ago and supply chains and everything else that we talked about. I mean, where do those things stand and what can you do to make sure, if anything, to make sure that things work the way they're supposed to work?
Well, it's a great question. From supply chain, obviously it's the insourcing initiatives we've taken advantage of, but more importantly, there's been the border closure issues, which knock on wood, we haven't been tremendously impacted by yet. And it's not just the outbound flow of finished goods that are coming to the U.S., but it's the inbound materials that are coming in to support manufacturing. I don't know what, we're a little bit fortunate in that we don't just have Eagle Pass as a primary point of entry. We have several different options where our facilities are located. Plus, we use waterway quite a bit into Mobile out of the ports through the Gulf. And that's given us some optionality, but if anybody can help us on the hill and get them to stop closing the border, that would really be appreciated.
Well, I'm not your guy for that. Well, at this point, I can keep going, but I'll open it up. I don't know if anybody has any questions that they want to lob in. Otherwise, I'll do some more myself. Okay. Real talkative bunch today. All right. So, you guys are, especially from an OEM perspective, it's a pretty small world in North America in particular. Maybe walk me through the competitive dynamics, how you see the landscape playing out, and then maybe even extrapolate that into the international market a little bit as well.
Sure. Yeah. I would say five builders in North America. Greenbrier and Trinity are the two largest builders. Depending on when you look at it, we kind of 75% to 80% of the market, maybe up to 85%. The rest is split between the other three. One is a private company in Canada. One is a publicly traded company in Northern Mexico. Then you have a company that's owned, I think, by Berkshire. Yeah. Ultimately, and that's kind of they build for their own lease fleet. So, it's a relatively small group. If you look back, even 20 years ago, there was a couple others that were part of it, but they've either been acquired or gone out of business. In Europe, it's interesting because we are, I would say, number two again, and it's the top two probably control 70% to 75% of the market there.
And then you have another five or six that control the majority of the remaining, call it 25% to 30%. And then in Brazil, we are number one. We have +60% of the market. And there's one other competitor there that is joint trucking and freight rail. And otherwise, it's just a two-horse race there.
As you're looking to grow internationally, I mean, are there places that seem like, boy, opportunities where you might be obvious candidates?
At this point, I would say that we have moved as far internationally as we're comfortable. There might be some additional in maybe South America, but it's really more a matter of we really need to be focused on making the most of what we our current footprint and capacity and maximizing or optimizing our production in Europe and South America as well as North America. And then we can focus on a little bit other things that are shiny and sparkly.
Sure. Well, let's move a little bit near term. Can maybe talk through, here we are almost Valentine's. Has the year started off pretty well for you guys or where do we stand in the Year of the Dragon here?
Yeah. I think, and I'll kick into you, Justin, I think we're very pleased with the start of the year. We came out of last fiscal or last fiscal year, which ends in August, strong. The first Q was a good quarter for us and we see momentum continuing to build.
Yeah. Great orders. And we always hit a little bit of a lull in North America in December and January. Oddly enough, people aren't really interested in railcars around Christmas time. So, unless they're expanding their train sets. But yeah, so we've seen an increase in inquiries as expected. And again, it goes back to steady as she goes.
So, going back to kind of the rationalization of the business, there had been Gunderson and you were in the marine business and now that's gone. From where you sit now, everything that is in the business is core to the business. Is that a fair way to think about it?
I think it's reasonably accurate. We continue to look at our services side, our maintenance services, our wheel services, parts, smaller locations to really understand the value to the entire franchise. That process will continue throughout this year, but I would say that 80/20 rule is correct.
Okay. All right. Still no questions. All right. Well, what am I neglecting here? How about that?
I think for us, what we've been focused on as a company over the last 18 months has been fixing what we believe needs to be fixed, controlling what we can control, and taking cost out. We really don't have any control over revenue. We don't have any control explicitly over demand. But what we can do is focus on our cost. And that's why you're seeing the initiatives that we've talked about. And also, we have put out a public ROIC target of kind of a 10% to 14% range, which for us, ultimately, is more about kind of getting the business back to where it needs to be and publicly talking about our respect for capital. And we have had a shift in our management team that's almost generational in the fact that effectively every business unit leader has changed over the last three years, I think.
Several executive officers have changed. So this is a team that is focused on taking Greenbrier that's been an amazing company for the last 30 to 40 years to that next stage of not just growth, but growth and profitability.
Yeah. Well, that last little bit is pretty mission critical, I think.
Yeah.
Yeah.
All right. Well, we did pretty good. So, if there aren't any questions, I think we can wrap it up. Well, I appreciate you guys coming all the way, six-hour flight. Glad mine wasn't quite that long, but coming out and.