Okay, if everyone's here, take your seat. We're going to move on. We're delighted to have with us our next company is General Dynamics, and delighted to have a chairperson and CEO Phebe Novakovic. This will be an interview, so there will be forward-looking statements made or remarks made, and so think about Reg FD. You'll be aware of that. So maybe to start, Phebe, maybe you could kind of recap the key takeaways from 2023. I mean, it was a really good year, but things went a little bit differently than you thought when you started.
Well, different in a good way is always beneficial. I think the two things that sort of surprised us was the timing and the strength of defense revenue and the lack of a G700 certification. That said, we accomplished a lot last year, and particularly in setting us up for additional revenue growth, and in that revenue growth driving margin improvement that will bring with it additional earnings, which is always, you know, a very strong thing. Operating leverage is critical.
Great. So, you know, on the call you mentioned, the temporary disruption from the Hamas attack out on Gulfstream orders in the fourth quarter. But maybe update us, you know, more broadly, what does that mean for Israel's ability to develop G280s and given the disruption to their workforce, and, like, what does that mean for G280 deliveries potentially for this year?
So we fully factored in their projections on the 280. They are doing a good job replacing those who were called up to military service with retirees and management. We have factored all of that into our plan. I would say they're doing a bit better on their production and testing plan than we had anticipated, but we like where we are right now and with them in terms of how we have de-risked that profile.
Got it. So one of the questions we're asking everyone here is, you know, supply chain. It's been a big disruption the last couple of years. As you look at it today, is it about the same, getting better? How would you describe it?
Well, let's break it into the two groups where supply chain has had the most profound impact. First in aerospace. Aerospace supply chain is getting better. You saw that in our fourth quarter deliveries. We delivered 39 airplanes in the fourth quarter of last year compared to 24-25 in the previous quarters. That was permitted by improvements in the supply chain. That said, there are still elements of the supply chain that are struggling. That manifests itself in, well, it's still significant out-of-station work, and the ramp-up this year will begin to tax them, but we think we've given you a very balanced plan, understanding our supply chain very, very well and what the potential impacts could be. On the Marine Group side, I think a little context here is important.
When COVID impacted heavy industry and labor-intensive industries in a profound sort of way and twofold. One was a larger cohort of retirees of experienced labor and workers, and they left at a higher degree and a higher number than we had anticipated. And then the very well-known COVID post-COVID labor disruptions. Both of those things impacted manufacturing businesses across the United States, but particularly those who are labor-intensive. That said, our Navy customer has been very, very good at working with us and understanding the supply chain perturbations and some of the challenges, and they've been pushing through long lead material through us in order to stabilize that supply chain. It is getting better, but there's still elements of it that have a long way to go in terms of improving their productivity.
Then the other question, sort of issue, is labor. Maybe speaking to both Gulfstream and to Marine, you know, is the labor market easier today? Or is it easier to hire folks, and what's your attrition rate look like?
Right. So at Gulfstream, we do not have a labor issue. We have a number of young, highly trained, in-place workers. We do not have an attrition problem. In the Marine Systems, our hiring has improved, and one of the things we're very pleased to see is we have a very robust training program, and the new shipbuilders who are coming through that training program are coming out at higher productivity levels than we had seen before. They will continue to improve their productivity over time as they come down their learning curve.
So for us, in order to offset a lot of the impacts or some of the impacts on, particularly in the Marine Group, on the labor market that it had on our supply chain, our job is to increase productivity and velocity so we can help offset some of those impacts, and we're doing just that. Our, just to give you an example, like, our throughput on Columbia increased 30% last year. So we're seeing nice velocity. We're seeing nice productivity, but we've got, there's always more work to do here, always.
Got it. So I think you'd mentioned, you know, that demand was strong in the fourth quarter. So what are you seeing here in the first quarter? And I guess you had the Hamas disruption in the fourth quarter. I mean, a little hard on the outside to see what that actually meant.
On demand?
Yeah.
So as we enter this year, the pipeline remains strong, and we've got a nice, solid pace of orders, and I would say the United States is particularly strong. This is at Gulfstream.
Got it. Okay. And so your guide calls for, and this sort of confused me, a 39% increase in sales but a 44% lift in deliveries, and presumably the mix is shifting toward the G700, which is three times as expensive as the G280, which might be a little bit less. So I would have thought, you know, you might have more in terms of, you know, per unit, the revenues would be stronger.
I thought 39% was pretty impressive growth.
It is. It is. But it's on 44% deliveries and better pay.
I hear you. Look, aerospace is more than just airplane deliveries. We have a large, about $3 billion service business that includes government work that tends to be very lumpy. And that just drives a lot of the revenue that we're looking at this year, but we're quite comfortable that the plan we gave you is quite balanced.
But should we assume that, I mean, so is the service? So Jet is not going to be, is going to be down this? I'm, I'm still confused as to.
Well, look, service varies, and Jet service continues strong. Gulfstream service continues strong, particularly with the increase in the embedded fleet, but our government orders, and that is both at Gulfstream and a little less at Jet, are quite lumpy. And so this year we see less of that coming through. But managing that 39% increase is challenging. We're quite comfortable that we can do it. We've got all the tools in place to do that, but we've fully factored in all of the elements of these very complex and large businesses in our revenue production. So don't get out ahead of us here.
Okay. Okay. So what are the key margin drivers for Gulfstream this year? I mean, where is, is R&D flat? I mean, because the revenues are up so much, or is R&D to sales down? What about out-of-station work? Is that an issue? G280 disruptions. What are the things that are moving those margins?
So we see margin improvement at Gulfstream, and we'll see over time increased margin improvement. This year it's all about volume mix, cost efficiency. Recall also that the first two lots of 700s carry with them the full cost of the developmental program. Those deliver this year. R&D will remain essentially flat. We've got to finish up the 700 certification. We have two more airplanes in the certification mix. R&D will come down as a percentage of sales, obviously.
Got it. Okay. And so if we turn to Marine, you know, EBs, material delays, supplier quality problems, they continuing in the first quarter, or is it easing up a little bit?
In some places. Some places are getting better, and others are continuing to struggle. And as I said earlier, our key challenge then is to increase our profitability and our throughput that allows Navy to get its ships a little bit faster and, again, to offset some of these cost impacts of delays in supplier deliveries. And I would say, too, as we do in Gulfstream, we have a number of flyaway teams that are embedded in with our suppliers, and that helps over time. And the Navy has been an important partner in recognizing these challenges and addressing them, quite aggressively. And I think those two things, Electric Boat's focus on its supply chain and its own productivity, and the Navy's, I think, long lead material and ability to see into the future is really helped. It's a good partnership.
I think on the third quarter call, Jason noted, you know, labor force stability. One of the things we went last August, we visited Huntington, and they were talking about, you know, gee, the gap between working at Home Depot and working at the shipyard has narrowed, and, you know, you guys had some labor contracts. Is your attrition rate improving?
So at Electric Boat and frankly throughout the Marine Group, we have seen increased hiring, increased training. Putting new workers and new shipbuilders through that training program has gone very, very well. A lot of the labor shortages that we have seen have largely abated. It's simply getting these new workers in, fully trained, and then getting them down their learning curves as they enter into the shipyard. But we're pretty encouraged about what we see right now. There's a lot less attrition now than there was shortly after COVID. You know, Electric Boat went into COVID in pretty strong condition, and if you enter a crisis with strong operating performance, you tend to weather the crisis better. So we came out of it stronger than most of the supply chain, but we were not without our challenges. And that has showed up in particularly our margins.
You can imagine we're going to be laser-focused on margins.
Right. So Marine revenue is kind of really overperformed by a big margin last year. How come they were so much above your initial guide, and what's the chance it could happen again?
So Columbia came in faster. There was some additional destroyer work, and repair came in at a faster level than we had anticipated, again reflecting the Navy's needs. They've increased and, I think, quite publicly been open about their need to get these ships turned quickly. So that velocity of contract activity increased, and that resulted in increased revenue for us.
Right.
Revenue that was coming, it just came a little bit earlier.
So if we think about margins, you mentioned that's a focus. I mean, everyone is worried about fixed-price development that the Air Force programs have. I mean, Northrop, Boeing, you name them. But I mean, my recollection over time is that shipyards are different because you don't want – you can't just do a development Columbia. You got to basically have a contract that's a little more forgiving. I mean, it might be fixed – well, Columbia, the first two are, I think, cost-plus, but as you move into production, it's a fixed-price incentive with a ceiling and with a share pattern. So how should we think about the risk and the margins and the uptrend? It seems like if you perform, you know.
So within our plan horizon, it's all about increasing our throughput and our velocity, increasing our shipbuilder productivity, and managing costs. As I said, we're going to be laser-focused on managing costs. So during our plan horizon, we're quite comfortable that we can drive margin improvement, assuming there is no additional deterioration in the supply chain. But as I said earlier, we put together a plan that we see as very balanced, including in the Marine Group. When you get into the future to bid a fixed price on particularly submarines, where these are large, long-term contracts, you've got to truly understand your cost environment. The Navy understands that thoroughly, and we will negotiate with them appropriately, as we always do. They understand our challenges. We understand their needs. That intimacy is important.
I think discipline on all parties is critical.
Is there a reason?
And by the way, we are the company that suffered. If you go back 25, 20, or maybe even closer to 30 years remember A-12, for those of you who've been around for a while, fixed-price development contract? It almost took out the old GD, and McDonnell Douglas spent 20 years in the U.S. court system, including, I think, two, if not 3x , to the Supreme Court. So for many, many years, fixed-price development contracts were taboo because they can damage the industrial base badly, and the customer ends up not getting a product. A-12 was never delivered. I mean, this is you know, this is ancient history, but, you know, my experience in life is the fundamentals don't really change. You make money the old-fashioned way. Contracting and programming for the realities of contracting and programming for large defense programs doesn't change.
Remembering what the basics are and the fundamentals of really driving the industrial base are.
But A-12 was a plane. I mean, basically, with ships, there is a more forgiving, it's a fixed price, but fixed price within.
Well, forgiving isn't the right word because that would suggest that Navy's forgiving, and the Navy's pretty tough. I think there has been an understanding of the economic realities by the Navy of what it faced, what the shipyard faced, and frankly, much of their industrial-based spaces. And I think that kind of realism is important.
Right. Right. So Combat, my favorite, up 13% last year. You thought it was going to be flat. So what's, you know, given likely continued doesn't sound like OTS is going to slow down, and European Land Systems looking pretty good. You only have a 3% increase this year.
Well, once again, 3% on 13%, I think, is pretty impressive.
It is. It is. It is.
So this year's a lot about absorbing the growth that we experienced last year. As we continue to increase the production and throughput on munitions, that will continue to build over time. We've got that fully factored into our plan, and there remains strong demand across Europe and in the United States.
Right.
It's just really a question of timing. In a high-growth environment, oftentimes, and particularly a growth environment that we're seeing in Land Systems, you tend to have lumpy orders. Contracts just execute at different timing levels.
Right. Right. I think what Doug and the Army just say they want to double 155 output by October. So, I mean.
We have fully factored in all those plans into our plan.
Okay. Okay.
Think about 155 production in this way. Along with our Army customer and partner, we have more than tripled the 155 production in two plus years. So that tells you what industry aligned with the customer can do when you are fully focused on doing the right thing. And it's important. We need to replace our stockpiles.
So that's a, you know, an issue. One of the issues is, like, sort of how far into the future, but it certainly looks like munitions replenishment is going to take a while. European vehicle demand looks like it's quite durable. You make the point. It takes a while till folks come around to order. The orders are lumpy. What's the potential, you know, for combat that, you know, sort of the uptrend continues through 2026?
So we see mid- to upper-single-digit growth throughout our plan period, and that's driven by munitions, both increased, increased in our portfolio and in our activity as well as just increase in the actual production of the shells. Bridges are, the demand for bridges is increasing. There are a lot of rivers in Europe, and I would also say in, in, we're seeing some in Asia. Wheeled and tracked vehicle demand is increasing, and demand in the United States at Land Systems for both tracked and wheeled vehicles is also increasing, both domestic and, and, foreign. So we see a the threat environment is, unfortunately, as you all know, an ugly we're in an ugly period right now, and that is driving the, the need for our allies and the United States to arm in the face of threat.
Right. We haven't talked for a while about the Saudi LAV or Ajax. Are they doing okay? Are they started to sunset?
So we, as you know, we talk about one of these programs as a large international order through Canada that is gone extremely well. As for those of you who may remember, we had a lot of cash tied up on the balance sheet for a while. That has completely been liquidated, and the vehicle is a superb vehicle, and we're coming down toward the end of that program. Ajax is stabilized. It's in test and is performing very well in tests. The British soldier likes it, and we'll continue to work that program. But the risk from on the cash perspective has been taken off that program as well.
Got it. So if we turn to Technology, I think, Jason mentioned $13.5 billion in awards last year versus $8 billion in revenues, $15 billion of pending awards, $2 billion under protest. How come only low single-digit growth?
So a lot of these orders come in the form of IDIQs that enter revenue over time. So our backlog will support the revenue growth going forward in addition to new orders that will manifest. We project low single-digit growth for this business, but given the size of this business and additional order activity and margin improvement, we see some really nice potential for solid earnings growth.
Got it. So you mentioned margin potential, but basically, unlike others, you don't show us adjusted EBITDA. You just show us the EBIT after the amortization. You know, if we look at it on an EBITDA basis, are the margins also going up, or is this just, you know, that you're winding off the amortization?
Somewhat. I think this, but remember, Mission Systems is in the middle of that and has very little amortization. So as they've come for them, it's coming off of their legacy programs, which has impacted their revenue, and then earnings and margin, obviously, and then coming back up slower to ramp new programs. But both of those businesses have been investing in fast currents. Take Mission Systems, for example, high-end crypto space, undersea, guided munitions. All of those are areas where they are targeting their R&D investments, and a number of those are beginning to pay off just as a kind of a indicator of how they're doing. We expect a 25% increase in their space order activity this year. So these investments have been well-placed.
I was going to get to that. I think, what, they tripled the bid submits in 2023, but you've got revenues down slightly. But what should we look for at Mission Systems? What should we look for for the bookings? I mean, is the book-to-bill going to be?
I think they'll have a very solid book-to-bill. I would say in the 1:1, maybe a little higher. But I like their positioning. They are a heavy merchant supplier to a lot of the primes, and that's a good place to be, particularly as you see growth in platform businesses. They will grow along with those platform businesses. So they're in a they're in a good position. And again, throughout our business you'll hear me say this again and again and again. It's execution, execution. Focus on your margins. You know, in a growth environment and, and this should be obvious, but I will just reiterate it anyway. In a growth environment, cost is often difficult to control, overhead in particular. So that is why we are laser-focused on our cost and our margin improvement.
That's actually how we can drive value for our customers, for our people, for our shareholders. It's increase those earnings that should naturally increase over the period as our revenue grows. It's all about operating performance.
So you mentioned space orders up 25%. What are the key, any particular? Is that, I assume, a big portion of Mission Systems?
It's some. It's not their big portion.
Right. Right.
They're very active in undersea, and that, as everyone knows, is growing.
The revenues are down a little bit this year, but should we think that as we move toward 2025, 2026, we're talking mid-single digit, maybe a little bit?
We're looking to low- to on occasion, mid-single-digit growth. Again, that's a very large portfolio. The key will be you know, this is a broken record here, but I think it's important. You understand the key is just driving operating performance, get those margins up. That's controlling your cost in this growth environment.
Right. Right. So what about the margins at Technology? I mean, basically, Mission Systems has been below. You've been kind of below where you once were. When do you see that?
Their natural margins are higher, and they will work toward that. You may recall they got hit pretty hard by supply chain shortages, particularly in chips, but not exclusively in chips. That is behind us now. As they ramp up on these newer programs, you start off with lower margins, but they'll continue to do better and better. This is a high operating leverage company.
Got it. So we've talked about, I guess, all of the areas, but, I guess we haven't talked about the G700. That sort of is still waiting for certification. I think you have 15, or you had 15 that were ready to go. I mean, what can you tell us about, you know, the certification?
Well, we're largely done. We're simply waiting for the FAA to conclude its deliberations. So we're on track. It's just that is, as we've been quite open, not a process that we control. But we're on a good track here.
Okay. Okay. So I guess you, you know, on the fourth-quarter call, you were talking about Gulfstream certainly being better 2025, 2026. Marine, you know, $600 million-$1 billion starting in 2025 for a couple of years. Technology is now sounding like it's going to do some pretty good things. Combat looks like it's well-positioned through 2026. I mean, on paper, it looks like all the major operations are kind of have an upward bias through 2026. Are any major headwinds that we should think about that could disrupt that kind of a run?
Nothing other than the ordinary, unexpected geopolitical events and macroeconomic stress. Those are always the two factors that impact us. But, you know, if you think about it, and for those of you who have followed us for many years, we have been investing over the last five or six year period. Those investments were prudent. They anticipated the growth that we now see, and capitalizing on those investments is exactly what we're all about right now. It's manifesting itself in the revenue increase, earnings increase, and that's why I am and our leadership team is so focused on margin improvement.
Got it. So I think you had a good cash flow year last year. You're talking about 100% conversion this year and in 2025. What are the key drivers there?
So we have good cash flow conversion across almost all of our businesses. The large, the major in our current plan, foreseeable, investments at the Marine Group are largely behind us. There are likely to be some more given the increase in submarine demand, but we'll work over time with our Navy customer. We fully factored all of that into our 100% conversion. We'll be a very strong converter of cash for the foreseeable future.
Got it. And then, I mean, I followed you long enough where I mean, when Nick was there, it was like 100% is like most of the time because you have businesses with high returns on sales, so well-managed. So, I mean.
It's all about cash. At the end of the day, it's all about cash, right?
Right.
I mean, who's who here is going to disagree about that, right? I don't think anybody.
So you've finally got, you know, you've got the cash. You've got the balance sheet, where it's looking pretty good. What do you use it for? I mean, obviously, in capital investment as required, but I mean, thinking about repurchase, M&A, special dividend, what, how do you think about how you would deploy it?
So I think our deployment plans are largely unchanged with a bias toward share repurchases given the investments that we've made internally to our business. I don't see the facts and circumstances that would suggest a special dividend. Our board has always been very engaged in our dividend policy. I have no doubt that they will continue to be, and we just never discuss M&A.
What about M&A? I mean, you basically ran the M&A shop when Nick was there, so.
Well, as you know, for those of you who've followed us for a while, you know that one of the first things we did when this leadership team took over was shut down our M&A, because a company that had been built on M&A had lost its discipline. We quickly regained that, but it's been very prudent. You know, the fundamentals of making money on acquisitions, again, do not change. There can sometimes be an impetus, internal to the business, for overpaying for a strategic investment. You hear strategic investment, you ought to run for the doors, because all that means is that you're going to overpay. So we've been pretty disciplined about M&A, and we'll remain so.
What about niche fillers? Any sort of areas where, you know, you could use capability?
I think we're always looking for small bolt-ons that can be accretive and that can add to our portfolio. But I think you could gather by now, both by inference and directly, but, you know, we're pretty conservative when it comes to that. Cash is precious, and how you deploy that cash is critical.
I think in the fourth quarter was the first time I've heard you mention the word stock repurchase. And I think you've said in the past that, you know, you're disinclined to doing an ASR. How should we think about when you talk about stock repurchase? You've been opportunistic. How should we think about is this, you know, $1 billion? I mean, how do we how should we think about how big or how important this might be?
I think our position on stock repurchase will be as it always has been. We are very tactical about it, and we repurchase our stock at appropriate intervals. I think in this environment, that's probably the best we should say. I'm not a big believer in announcing a priori stock repurchases, though everybody else can bet against you. I don't get at that. We'll be what we always are, is prudent. I think that that's a healthy way to be.
Terrific. I guess to conclude, so when you look at the outlook, it looks pretty good. What do you worry about in terms of you mentioned kind of generating the cash and operating, but are there any particular things that, you know, you kind of are on your watch list of, "We got to watch this," to sort of make the numbers?
Well, clearly, the supply chain has to continue to stabilize. But, you know, some broken record up here, but it's really about our ability to control the cost. And that is what we are as a leadership team going to be focused on. And I think that's how you're going to drive real value creation and enduring value creation, not a particular pop, and then how you wisely invest your capital again to drive enduring value. So I think that's our—it's a very straightforward, you know, back to basics, fundamentals of providing for your customer your on-time deliveries and rewarding your shareholders. So, you know, this is—I step back and look—this is about the best organic growth we have seen in this company, probably, since the Reagan buildup.
This leadership team's focus on its operating performance, I think, ensures, and disciplined capital deployment ensures that, you know, we'll see a nice growth pattern ahead of us. We're pretty excited about it, not without its challenges, but we are, we like where we are right now. We like what we see. It's just about delivering on our promises.
Terrific. Sounds good to me. Thank you so much. That was great.
Thank you for being here.