Thanks, Jason, for again being here in Miami, and I'll turn over you for the necessary disclosures, disclaimers.
Sure. Thank you. Thank you, David, for having us today. As David mentioned, of course, today will involve, inevitably some forward-looking statements which always bring risks and uncertainties. Advise people just to check out our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, for risk and uncertainty statements. With that, we can kick it off.
All right. I guess following up on my introduction, your new role, how are you splitting your time between the CFO role, SVP of Technologies, and I guess, what are your near-term and longer term objectives for Technologies?
You know, I guess the first thing I'd say is it is, it's an honor and a privilege to have this opportunity with the expanded role. It's certainly, humbling to get a chance to put on both of these hats at the same time and looking forward to all the opportunities it presents. I think as I look at the Technologies group, you know, at a macro level, you know, my objective is to work with these two business unit presidents and their teams to maintain our leadership position in a market that is very dynamic and continues to transform over time.
You know, that includes a number of the peer comparator companies in this industry sort of morphing over time through acquisition and other means to look a lot more like our Technologies group looks like today. You know, our goal is to keep stay ahead of that curve and keep leadership position within the group. I think near term priority would be, you know, the two businesses between GDIT and Mission Systems are on slightly different trajectories right now. For GDIT, they've been demonstrating nice steady growth for the past couple of years, so we wanna keep them on that growth trajectory and continuing to press for accelerated growth on the top line, but more importantly, supporting the continued bottom-line growth.
At Mission Systems, you know, they've been coming through some challenges post-COVID with supply chain, and the near-term objective is to see them through to the other side of that. I think they've got very nice growth potential once they can come through those issues in the back half of this year. That's sort of the near-term focus. Longer term, it is continuing the unwavering drumbeat on the bottom line, you know, growing earnings and cash performance of the business. At some point, that does require top line growth on a sustainable and accelerating level because you can only wring margins for so long. We're gonna work that in combination. I think that includes increased opportunity for these two businesses to go to market together.
That's the way their peer group is behaving, that's the way their customers are procuring. I think we've got some great opportunity there. You talk about the dual hats. The year's been off to a fast pace as you'd expect. Certainly, this is a finance-heavy time of the year, at the same time, rolling up the sleeves and getting deeper involved in the new role in the two businesses. You know, I would tell you that I am blessed to have a very experienced and very talented finance organization, both in my corporate staff, as well as in the finance community around our operating units. I would tell you, the strength of that community, I think is key to making this possible and giving me this opportunity.
without them, this would be a much more daunting challenge. Excited for the opportunity ahead.
I wanna move to Aerospace. You guys seem like you've managed supply chain and inflation pretty well. We don't hear that much from you all with regards to both those issues that are obviously impacting the entire industry. Maybe touch on both. Are you seeing improvement in supply chain? How are you dealing with inflation? Are you getting net positive price?
Yeah, look, I appreciate the recognition there, frankly, not for the leadership of the company, but for the leadership at Gulfstream. They continue to do things that are remarkable, when it comes to all aspects of their operations, including the supply chain. You know, you even saw that before the impact of COVID and what has been hitting a lot of other companies. There were some high-profile incidents, whether it was wings on the G650.
Mm-hmm.
Nacelles on the G500 and G600. They have demonstrated, I think, quite capably, their ability to manage supply chain and even bring some of that in-house when necessary. It's active engagement with those suppliers. It sounds maybe a little bit overly simplistic, but it's easier said than done. It really is fundamentally a relentless focus on that operating excellence. The daily drumbeat, I've learned this from these guys at Gulfstream in particular, as well as around other parts of our company. It is a relentless daily drumbeat of management on the shop floor, a leadership of the people doing this work and making that happen. It's an attitude that says, "We will find a way." Doesn't mean you don't stumble occasionally, but we will find a way.
Darn if they haven't proven again and again that they can do that. What I would say is, it continues to be an issue. I mean, we're dealing with supply chain perturbations just like everybody else is. The part count that shows up late, you know, to due on dock is still elevated as it's been throughout this COVID period. Some of that tends to cause the manufacturing team to shift the way they manage the aircraft assembly. Some things get done out of station, and of course, that can have an impact on efficiency. We're looking forward to kind of ironing that out and improving the impact there so that we can wring out more efficiency in the production of the airplanes.
I have no doubt that that team at Gulfstream can manage through that. When you look at inflation, you know, it's as real for us as it is for anybody else. It's a factor that's out there. We're likewise managing through that. I would tell you that, you know, you kind of alluded to it's been a favorable pricing environment for us, so we've been able to keep ahead in that regard. Frankly, again, when you think about just the operational efficiency and continuing to come down learning curves on these aircraft model manufacturing lines, the combination of those two things has helped us stay ahead of the inflation game.
Notwithstanding some inefficiencies out of the supply chain and inflationary pressures, you know, we're still able to put forth, call it low 20% incremental margins as we grow this business, and we'll look to continue to improve that over time.
I'll follow up on that in a second. I guess first of all, the delivery cadence. You know, I think it was sometime last year you put out your three-year forecast for deliveries. You know, you're a couple short last year. I guess you're going to be a couple short. I'm nitpicking, little short this year. You still have this big 170 target out there for 2024. Is that still realistic? How are you tracking to that? Maybe talk about how important the G700 cert is to making all this happen.
Sure. Obviously, the G700 certification timing and entering the service is fundamental to this ramp, right? We can talk a little bit about what that timing means. I think when you look at the overall projections that we gave and the direction we were taking this business, you know, what's going to constrain us and what's going to be sort of the gating item during that process, going back to your earlier question, is the supply chain. If we can keep the supply chain along, that's going to allow us to get the step function increases in growth this year and again next year.
I think the important takeaway for me in that, in that point is that probably for the first time, certainly since General Dynamics has owned Gulfstream, call it the last 25-ish years, that multi-year outlook is not gated by current market demand and order activity. We obviously are still assuming a roughly one to one .
Sure.
Book to bill. But those outlooks we've given, the reason we have confidence in that is because that's in the order book, that's in the backlog, and we are prepared to deliver on that. Again, subject to the supply chain being able to support that. I think that's the most important takeaway for me. To focus on the little nitpicking that you mentioned. You know, okay, so we were a couple of units short last year of our delivery forecast. It was 120 versus 123. You may have heard Phebe on our fourth quarter conference call reference the fact that two of those were strictly customer accommodations.
Mm-hmm.
That has nothing to do with manufacturing line, has nothing to do with supply chain. There was one that was on us, we'll own that. When I look out at this year, we had talked about I think notionally 148 aircraft. That's a very specific laser-focused number. We refined that to 145. Rather than sort of look in the mirror and be self-critical about that, what do I think about in terms of those numbers and the, and the multi-year outlooks we gave? The intent there was to give multiple indicative data points, whether it's delivery units, year-over-year revenue growth, margin expansion rates, that would help the market triangulate sort of the earnings trajectory that we are on.
When I look back at what those implied earnings were in 2023 and 2024 when we made those forecasts at this time last year, we're spot on with where that is. There's a little puts and takes here and there.
Mm-hmm.
Between mix and number and other factors in the business, we're spot on with that earnings forecast. To your point, the 2024 forecast remains intact. We feel good about that. Whatever the final number is, it'll be close to that original delivery forecast. Last point I'll make on this is because you mentioned the G700. Obviously, the timing of that certification and entry into service is important to us. As you think about this year, you know, we've said that we expect the certification in the, in the summer of 2023, with deliveries to follow in the, in the back half of the year.
I think it's important for people to understand that while Gulfstream and the Aerospace group traditionally has a sequential sort of seasonal ramp from the first quarter to the fourth quarter, I would expect that to be exacerbated this year with a more modest first quarter and a steeper climb to the fourth quarter, all predicated on that G700 entry into service.
Okay. Touching on the, you know, the margin trajectory you've talked about. 13%-16% by 2024, low 20% kind of incrementals. Why aren't they better than that? I mean, I'm going to keep coming back to this question, but, you know, why aren't they better with the G700 lower aftermarket mix, lower R&D? It just seems like a low bar.
Yeah. It's, as we've talked about before, it's easy to say, you know.
Yeah. Right.
Tougher to do. Look, to your point, the G700 will be, you know, a tailwind to this margin trajectory. As we've said, those airplanes will enter service with accretive margins out of the gate.
Mm-hmm.
That is fundamentally different than the G500 and G600. We've talked sort of about the reasons why those came in at lower margin, but then have performed nicely since. The G700 is supportive of that margin trajectory. To your point, you would think all other things equal, why not maybe a little more? To be clear, while they'll come in at accretive margins, that won't be a peak margin. They will still come down the natural learning curve, and we expect to see that margin improve over time. Likewise, the G800, when it comes into service, will come in at accretive margins, but we expect to see that come down a learning curve and grow over time. What's offsetting that? I think there's a couple of things. Number one, you mentioned R&D.
We actually will still have a bit of an elevated R&D this year. It's actually modestly higher than last year, that's a little bit of an offset. Likewise, there's some underlying mix shift within the business to include in terms of the delivery profile, to include a bit fewer G650s at some incrementally more G280s. That naturally has a little bit of a margin impact in that delivery mix shift. Net, net, we feel good about the margin trajectory that we've laid out there. To your point, is there opportunity for upside? We'll keep challenging the Gulfstream guys to do it. I think more important than whether the 2023 and 2024 margin guides have opportunity, it's that we don't see that being the end.
With the G700 coming down a learning curve, the G800 coming down a learning curve, we see margin growth trajectory beyond 2024, and that's what the expectation we'll have.
Moving over to Marine. I guess, you know, the most surprising aspect of the guidance that you gave in Q4 was, you know, guidance for flat forecast for flat Marine. You know, you've obviously had a ton of growth in the business, you know, that was highlighted on the call as well. What underlies that flat forecast for this year?
Yeah, I think the most important point I'd make here is that the long term growth trajectory that we've been on, that Phebe has described of, call it $400 million-$500 million a year-on-year growth in that business, with potentially some lumpiness in any given year, but averaging $400 million-$500 million a year, that remains intact. We've actually been higher than that for the past five or so years. We expect to be at the high end of that in the next couple of years. This is sort of a one year lumpiness that was implied in Phebe's longer term expectations, maybe a little bit more lumpiness than people expected. Why is that?
Really what we're seeing here is a manifestation of COVID's impact on the supply chain sort of catching up with us in the shipyard. When you think about it, everything that takes place in a shipyard, both an issue that adversely impacts a shipyard and the efforts that you undertake to overcome that issue, they take a lot of time to work their way through the system. We're talking about really manifesting in 2023 the impact that COVID had, which started in 2020, on the supply chain and the workforce, and really exacerbating a generational changing of the guard when it comes to the workforce in terms of attrition of older shipbuilders and onset of new shipbuilders and those impacts.
That's now catching up with the supply chain. We got to get back on our cadence, get the throughput flowing, and that'll get us back on a trajectory to growth. That's just, again, it's a shipyard environment, and it takes time to make that happen. Again, if you look back to when we made that multi-year outlook of $400 million-$500 million a year and where we'll be a couple of years from now, I did some rough math. We'll be about, call it $500 million-$600 million at cumulative better revenue growth than our original forecast would have implied. I know that doesn't sway people in terms of this year. I'm looking at the long term for this business. I still feel good about where we're going.
The two key programs of Marine, Virginia-class and Columbia-class, maybe touch on how things are progressing on each of those.
Yeah. You know, Virginia, I think, was the hardest hit by this COVID supply chain issue. We were, as a team, on a path and had a strategy, and we're actually approaching the two per year cadence that we were trying to get to between us and our customer on Virginia-class. COVID has sort of knocked us back a little bit from that. I would tell you that between our team at Electric Boat, our partner and our Navy customer, everybody is aligned in terms of the prioritization and in terms of getting resources that are needed on this program to get it back, you know, hitting its stride on its cadence. It's kinda like everything else in the shipyard. It's a gradual thing that's gonna take a little time.
It's not gonna, you know, turn a light switch on and be back on track, but it is trending back in the right direction because of that alignment of those three parties and the commitment they have to getting on track. I think when you look at Columbia, things remain encouraging there. We're about 30% complete on the first boat build. While it's tough to get on a program of that magnitude, sort of externally observable milestones or data points on how we're progressing, I think the way to think about that is all the conditions for successful construction are there in terms of we've talked about a very mature design before we started construction, the most mature design we'd ever had in submarine construction before starting first boat construction. The facility infrastructure has been put in place.
That's almost complete now, so that's there to support the program. I think from the Navy standpoint, they've appropriately prioritized Columbia. It's their top priority. It is absolutely going to get the resources that it needs to stay on track. As we sit here today, we remain on track with the program schedule. Our daily focus is on wringing margin out of that schedule to continue to give ourselves opportunity to meet that delivery requirement. But the net result of all of that that I just said, and the tribute to Columbia is honest, but that program will really represent the lion's share of the growth in the group over the next several years.
The margin, you know, margin trajectory, margin range at Marine, I think, you know, you're at the lower end of kind of that 8%-9% range right now. Is that Virginia-class? Is it Columbia-class mix ramping up? Is 9%+ that you've talked about in the past, is that still realistic, and is that five years out, or is that nearer term?
If I had to give you a one word answer, I'd say yes, it's realistic. That's three words. Yes. That target is still realistic. We're really right now coming through two major factors, and you sort of alluded to them. One is getting Virginia back on track. And again, predictability of the timing of that is something that I'll stay away from, but I'm convinced that we're on the right path there. The second is a mix issue. Where do we have to go to get back on that track to getting into the 9%+ and approaching 10% range? You got to get Virginia back in its stride. You got to get to Columbia-class second construction contract, fixed price work. That gives you an opportunity there.
That's a little farther out, but that's I'm kind of taking these in sequence. Then we really can't forget, even though we tend to talk for obvious reasons, in terms of orders of magnitude, we tend to talk about submarines. I don't want to forget our other two shipyards, you know, Bath Iron Works and NASSCO. You know, NASSCO's been performing very well, solid margin business but they're continuing to learn and continuing to improve out there. I think we've got more opportunity from them. Of course, Bath is coming through the transition that they've had on the stop and the restart of the DDG-51 line and some of the issues they've had there. You know, they're on a trajectory where they've got opportunity to improve and continue to contribute to the group.
I think you put those three together, and we've got a path to get there. I'd probably be out ahead of my skis if I tried to predict the timing, but we do absolutely believe that we will get there.
Moving over to Combat. You know, you went through this period where you kind of sort of, you were burning down. You had this huge backlog at Combat, you started burning it down. You've got backlog growing again now. Your Abrams Stryker did very well in the budget. You've got Poland that's coming through. Why don't we see all this kind of come through to Combat? I guess it's a shorter cycle business. Why don't we see some of that start to come through maybe a little bit earlier than you're forecasting?
Yeah, it's interesting you call it a shorter cycle business. It's certainly shorter than shipbuilding.
Yeah.
It's not as short as the technologies.
Yeah.
Portfolio. You know, I would think to your point, our portfolio in combat systems is in high demand when you look across the spectrum, both U.S. domestically and internationally. Of course, that is probably not a surprise given the changing threat environment around the world. I think to your point, everything is supportive of an inflection point and a change in the trajectory. When you look back a couple of years ago, we had expected to be down low single digits in 2022 and 2023.
Mm-hmm.
We've actually managed to stay consistent with 20, you know, since 2021. There's implied improvement already in the performance. Now we're talking about a return to growth in 2024 and beyond. I think, you know, a couple of key factors there, to your point about short cycle and when does this happen? The shortest cycle piece of our combat business would be the munition side of the business, and we're absolutely seeing demand signals for obvious reasons on that. Starting to see some contract activity being let there. The biggest issue there is capacity. We are working in a coordinated, strategic way with our Army customer to first get the capacity in place to then ramp up production. That just takes some time, and I can't really get out ahead of that and overcommit in terms of what we're doing.
That is a coordinated effort, and so there is absolutely growth implied in that. It's not like we can just put in another shift on the munition side and all of a sudden we ramp up activity. We actually have to create additional capacity to accommodate that. That's why that's a little longer term than you would normally expect in that cycle business. The other real big piece is in our European Land Systems business. There's tremendous order interest across the board in their markets, in their home markets and beyond. You know, you started to hear rhetoric that not only are countries committing to the 2% of GDP commitment for defense spending, many are saying that's now a 4%. That continues, I think, to underpin a demand environment there.
As we've seen in the past, I think it would be a little bit of a foolish errand for me to try and predict how and when that comes in. We can turn that on. That's not a capacity issue. We can turn that on as demand manifests itself in contracts and order flow. Again, that's just a little bit less predictable. I think to your point, there's probably upside bias in this business, but timing wise, we'll just have to see how it plays out. We're talking about low single digit growth in 2024 and inflecting to mid-single digit, you know, at some point shortly thereafter.
Taking it to the corporate level, wanted to ask about cash flow. You know, you converted above 100% last year. You're guiding to above 100% this year. You know, implies $200 million in free cash flow this year. Can you bridge us to that, kind of the moving pieces and even the outlook beyond, specifically touching on the unbilled receivables with two large international customers, where those stand, what the run-off is expected to look like, how important that is to the overall free cash flow outlook?
There's a lot to unpack there.
Yeah.
Let me try and take it one step.
We're on the clock.
One step at a time. I'll try and do this quickly. You asked about the bridge, couple hundred million.
Yeah.
Improvement in free cash flow year-over-year. The way I look at that is sort of headwinds and tailwinds. The tailwinds that are giving us improvement, you can talk about number one, just bottom line improvement, net income, right? Assuming income converted into cash. Accelerating that, as we've talked about, a pretty meaningful decrease in non-cash income, some of those below the line items.
Mm-hmm.
The implicit cash net income is better.
Yeah.
Lower CapEx, albeit still elevating systems. As we wrap up some of those investments, we'll start to see a step down in CapEx this year and somewhat lower cash taxes. Obviously, we didn't get the R&D fix we were hoping for last year. That in this last year, that amortizes and starts to step down a little bit over time. Those, I would say, roughly speaking, aggregate to about probably a $600-ish million tailwind to free cash flow year-over-year. Looking the other way, we've talked about an increased pension contribution.
Mm-hmm.
The second major piece would be OWC. While we expect to continue to see OWC come down this year, it will not come down as much as it did last year. You combine those two, and that's called a roughly $400 million headwind. The net of those factors, to your point, I think your math is reasonably in the ballpark, is a roughly $200 million year-over-year improvement. So that's 2023. When you look out into the future, I think this business should year-on-year, barring in the moment issues around you know, intensive capital investment or OWC issues, it should be a one-to-one, 100% conversion net income to cash business.
We've obviously seen and thoroughly vetted some of those things that became headwinds over the past few years between the unbilled receivables and some of the ramped up capital expenditures. We're starting to see those shift into tailwinds, right? We've seen the large international LAV program has been unwinding. The payments continue as scheduled for that contract restructure from several years ago. We'll see that pretty much come through its paces by the end of this year, as we talked about. The next phase of that would be the Ajax program in the U.K. We're working with that customer, very supportive of the program.
It's coming through its test regimen, and we believe based on the progress we've made with that vehicle, that we'll start to see payments resume here before the end of this quarter, and then it'll continue to unwind out into the future, over some period of time. The last thing would be as the CapEx comes down, that depreciation starts to move into the programs, and you get reimbursed for that.
Yeah.
That ought to shift from a headwind to a tailwind. All of those factors are what give us good reason to see at or above 100% conversion even out beyond, 2023.
Okay. Capital deployment. As is custom for you didn't assume anything in your guidance. You have some near-term maturities, pretty low rates. Sounds like you're gonna take those out, how are you thinking about the context of, like, you have more maturities beyond this year. I think in 2025 you have a decent amount as well. How are you thinking about, you know, reining in, taking down the, you know, the leverage where you're in a pretty good spot today versus share repo? How are you weighing that allocation?
Yeah. I think our first off, at a high level, I won't repeat them all, but our capital deployment priorities haven't changed, right? Talked about the dividend, share repurchase, et cetera. We intend to take a shareholder-friendly approach to capital deployment. As it relates to the trade-off with debt maturities, you know, we've talked about the fact that coming into this year, having come from a high back in 2018 and working some of that debt down, we're now in an opportunistic place where we can decide based on what the other capital deployment opportunities are, whether it's compelling share repurchase, a bolt-on M&A or what it happens to be as to whether we roll some of that debt or just take it down. That'll be an in-the-moment decision and based on what the other capital deployment priorities are.
I think the key takeaway is that we have sufficiently strong free cash flow that we can, if we decide to, pay down that debt. It's pretty low rate debt at this point.
Yeah.
We'd be replacing it with rates that are roughly double what it's at today. We'll have to think about that, but more than enough free cash flow to repay that debt, pay the dividend, and have enough left for other tactical opportunities. We see the portfolio as wide open.
Can we pull up the audience response question? If you could, do you currently own the stock? We would appreciate the participation. Get the keypads in front of you. Next question, please. General bias. Not bad. Next question, please. Through cycle EPS growth. Next question, please. On our last question.
This is always the lively one.
Insightful. There you go. Here's your answer.
Not unexpected. There's the answer.
Okay.
That answers your last question.
Yeah, exactly. I'm sure you'll take it as advice. Next question, please. What multiple. Okay.
All right.
Similar ranges.
Yeah.
To where you are today.
Yeah.
I think there's one more. One more question. No, there's two. Significant share price headwind. Okay. I think this next ESG question, the last one. Do you consider ESG when investing in or looking at GD? There you go.
There you go.
All right. Thanks, everyone.
All right.
Thanks, Jason. Appreciate it.
Thank you, David. Appreciate it. Thank you.