All righty. Thanks for coming, everyone. Chris Danely, semiconductor analyst here at Citigroup, for the 27th consecutive presentation, seemingly. Next up is GlobalFoundries. It's our pleasure to have John Hollister, I guess sort of newly minted CFO, not so new minted CFO. John, thanks very much for coming.
Thank you, Chris. Thanks for having us.
Yeah, we appreciate it. So, you know, you recently reported your earnings, you know, I guess a few weeks ago. Maybe give us the GF view on the industry, and-
Yeah
... you know, maybe, like, the key puts and takes. We can just start with overall industry, and then dig into the end markets.
Sure, yeah. So, you know, we've been pleased with our execution in the H1 of this year. We've been delivering results that have been above the midpoint of our guidance ranges. And generating a significant free cashflow in the H1. We've generated more than $500 million in free cash flow. That puts us well on track to achieving our goal of roughly a 3x increase in the FCF for 2024. We did a touch over $300 million in 2023, so we're looking to generate roughly $1 billion of free cash flow this year, so that's on track. As far as the industry overall, you know, it's... We believe we're hopefully at the bottom of this down cycle, and you know, moving along the bottom of this, and even though we are growing sequentially throughout the course of this year-
Mm-hmm.
... you know, and the big question is, what's gonna be the rate and pace of the recovery?
Yep.
You know, and as we look at, manufacturing in general, the health of the macroeconomy, the labor market, what the Fed is gonna do, you know, these are obviously all open questions for all of us to consider. But, we think that, you know, this feels like the bottom of it overall. And hopefully we'll be looking ahead to a recovery as we head into next year, but we'll have to wait and see how the demand signals ultimately bear out. You know, if you want me to touch on the end markets in particular-
Mm-hmm
... the, you know, taking them in turn, smart mobile devices has seen some accumulation of inventory, and, we've seen some drawdown there. That's varied by customer. Qualcomm, in particular, you can see their inventory days have come in-
Yep
... better, and you know, we see forecasts of roughly mid-single-digit recovery in the smart mobile device market. Given the inventory levels that exist out there, and the need to draw that down, we see for 2024 the opportunity to have flat, maybe slightly up, year-on-year growth for the year for smart mobile devices-
Mm-hmm
... in 2024. We have a very strong position with the RF front-end-
Yeah.
Technologies, well over, as well as our RF transceivers. We're also expanding and diversifying our content into areas like OLED and display technology.
Mm-hmm.
Look for a future where this is a very solid piece of our business.
Yeah.
It may not be the fastest-growing piece of our business as we move forward, but a very strong market position, and we expect that to continue to be the case. Next, I'll talk about automotive, which has been a fantastic and story for us, and really plays very well to our strengths as a company, both in terms of the analog mixed signal and microcontroller technology that we offer, that are abundant in vehicles, as well as our reliable defensible supply chain characteristics with our global footprint in North America, in Europe, in Singapore. This is important for automotive manufacturers, and has been a key part of our long-term agreement frameworks. I'm sure we'll get into that here in a moment.
Yep.
But that, you know, that business tripled in 2023, from around $300 million to just over $1 billion in 2023, and we look for continued growth. Even with the inventory dynamics that are happening in the automotive industry, we still see the opportunity to grow that business meaningfully in 2024, and we see that as mid to upper single-digit growth in 2024.
And a very bright future as we look forward into the next several years of continued growth in automotive, in both, you know, internal combustion platforms, autonomous connected electric vehicle platforms. Again, the diversity comes into play across microcontrollers, our 22FDX technology, that's relevant for radar applications, for example, and other technologies that are permeating the vehicles. Next I'll talk about the IoT market, where once again, we have very well-suited technology. I'm thinking 22FDX, which has, you know, very low power operation, great RF performance, ideally suited for battery-operated, wirelessly connected devices
in the Internet of Things. We've seen some wins in blood glucose monitoring, for example, as a good proof point there. This market has been impacted by inventory to a significant degree, and we've seen that definitely affect our business performance, our customers' business performance. We are starting to see that improve some. It's a bit mixed across our various customers, but we saw some in some cases some pretty good movement of inventory in the Q2 to bleed that off some.
Good.
So, you know, longer term, very excited about this market. It's greenfield, it's a new market, it's nascent, and the long-term opportunity is robust. And then finally, looking at the comms infrastructure and data center market, that's our fourth end market.
Mm-hmm.
You know, we've seen some processing-intensive applications migrate from our 12 and 14-nanometer FinFET technology to sub-10-nanometer technologies, where the power and the cost are worth it, given the, you know, processing capability that those applications require. We think that story is largely behind us and we've reached a stable level of business now in what we see, and longer term, really good opportunity in areas like silicon photonics, as well as our gallium nitride technology that'll be useful for power delivery in data center applications. In satellite communications, we have some new wins there, both in the ground terminals as well as the satellites themselves.
Again, looking at the silicon photonics and the power, that's really an AI play for GlobalFoundries as a derivative, if you will. We're not going to be competing in the, you know, highly processing-oriented portions of that application, but the analog mixed signal enablement around it is a strong play for the company.
Just to unpack some of those comments, you know, one thing you said about rates, we've had a few other CFOs and CEOs mention that. You know, you've been doing this for quite some time. You remember the last time rates went down. You know, obviously, most people believe rates are going to start to go down here fairly quickly. Can you just talk about the impact that that'll have on the business, on the confidence before we dig into, you know, some of your comments on the end markets?
Yeah. I mean, I think, you know, we've seen demand globally impacted by two critical phenomena. You know, in the Western economies, we've seen high interest rates impact consumer demand. That's pretty clear.
Yep.
In the Asia Pac market, I'm thinking the China market in particular, we've seen the property market plague demand in China.
Mm-hmm.
The rate and pace of that recovery is a bit, to be determined, I would say. But on the Western economies, interest rates coming down should facilitate stronger consumer demand across a range of applications of-
Mm-hmm.
... you know, vehicles being less expensive to buy, you know, consumer borrowing being more readily available, corporate borrowing being more readily available. So, we think, you know, that's bullish,
Yeah.
... for demand overall, you know, and then, you know, the related leg to that whole track is what's going to happen in the labor market, and, you know, ideally, we can execute a soft landing, get the rate relief that we need-
Mm-hmm.
... and not have a negatively impacted jobs market-
Yep.
... along the way, and of course, that's what we're all hoping for, and we'll see. We'll see what the Fed does here in a couple of weeks.
Great. And then, you know, taking all the near-term stuff, as we look into, say, calendar 2025, how would you rank the end markets in terms of what you feel best about-
Yeah.
... or what you're a little more concerned on? And by the way, your comment on comms has basically been echoed by every other semiconductor company here in comms. It's either flat or starting to slightly improve.
Yeah.
So I think we're through the worst on that area.
Yeah. Yeah, Chris, I think the automotive market and the smart mobile device market are most exciting to me right now.
Mm-hmm.
I think, the IoT market remains a bit of a wild card, and, you know, that can become really exciting if, again, the rate environment can stimulate more demand, you know, activate housing starts, you know, remodels for home automation, those types of applications, and consumer demand on next-generation IoT devices. So that could quickly become very exciting, I think. If you get you get both a demand stimulant and an inventory clearing phenomenon happening in IoT could turn quickly. And then on CID, I think it's going to be a bit of a longer-term roadmap. You know, I don't see that so much in the 2025 horizon. Hopefully some, but it's really looking beyond 2025-
Okay
... as we see GenAI continuing to take off and, and next-gen communication kicking in over time here.
Great. I want to ask about inventory as well, but I guess, you know, from a broader perspective, you've been doing this for a while. What's your sense of, like, the underlying demand for semis? Do you think we're just sort of bouncing along the bottom? Is it getting a little better, a little worse, somewhere in between? No one, no one can tell. We're just, you know, throwing darts. What's your... You've been there for a little bit now, and you've been doing semis for a long, long time.
Yeah.
Any insights there would be appreciated.
It feels to me like we're bouncing along the bottom and waiting for the recovery.
Mm-hmm.
I would say, the recovery is a little bit long in the tooth, relative to prior cycles. But that's not, it's not all that surprising given the amplitude up in the 2021 and 2022 time horizon-
Yeah.
... of what happened post-COVID. We had the shortages, we had a lot of inventory accumulation-
Mm-hmm.
... as companies around the world were really concerned about having reliable supplies. So we've got, you know, had a high amplitude up, and now we're seeing a high amplitude down. And again, if we could get some macroeconomic recovery throughout this inventory, it should be quite positive. I think our fundamental thesis on semiconductor content continuing to grow, continuing to permeate-
Yep.
... both existing applications and higher contents and new applications, that remains very much intact, and we see this becoming a trillion-dollar industry in over the course of the next several years.
Yeah, NVIDIA alone might get there at this rate. How about overall inventory in semis? Maybe give us your sense on, like, channel inventory first and how you think-
Yeah
... that evolves.
Yeah. I think if, you know, as I see channel inventory and really thinking about the distribution network-
Yep..
... from our customers, that has gotten a lot better. That had gotten very high and has now been the first shoe to drop of seeing drawdown and normalization, and now it's down to the companies themselves pulling down their-those inventory levels-
Mm-hmm
... and allow the more normalized demand curve to resume.
Do you see inventory as being any better or any worse in any of the particular end markets between, you know, wireless, auto, IoT, et cetera?
Yeah, I would say most pronounced in IoT.
Okay.
For sure. That's where we see the highest inventory levels, and we've seen some emergence of inventory in auto, in automotive.
Mm-hmm.
Again, smartphone devices had shown that or has some high inventory, but has really been the first to get better, so to speak.
Yeah, that was, that was, kind of what I was angling at, is-
Yeah
... to say that it's in the best shape in the wireless space?
I would say so.
Yeah.
Yeah, I would. And to me, Chris, that's not all that surprising, given that, you know, there's consolidation in the industry, there's fewer players, they've been at it for a long time. You know, smartphone industry's been in place now for decades.
Yeah.
They, of these markets, they may understand their demand and supply signals the best.
Yeah, and you guys do have one fairly large customer there that's,
Yeah.
... been putting up a few good quarters. That always helps.
Yeah.
Maybe just talk about pricing. You know, your ASPs went down slightly in the most recent quarter. Why was that, and what can we expect going forward?
Really mixed. That was a very modest change. We were flat year on year. You'll see, mix affect our ASP levels some, but the, you know, the meta point here is ASP pricing is very stable. Excuse me. We're seeing that, and we're actually-
It's free. Take it.
... seeing our competitors with similar commentary of fairly stable pricing. You know the reasons for that are clear as well. I mean that you know semiconductors are a valuable asset in the world. Customers wanna have reliable supply chain. They wanna. They'll maintain a robust source et cetera. So overall we see ASPs as fairly stable.
Would you say... I mean, I know you haven't been in this industry for that long, but would you say we're, I guess, in sort of a normal type of pricing environment? However the heck you can define normal-
Yeah
... in semis.
Yeah, it's a good question. I think it's a really good question 'cause it really does beg the question: What is the new normal?
Yeah.
And, um-
We're all ears.
You know, I think as demand resumes, semiconductor content continues to grow, as we continue to see discipline among foundry operators. Yeah, I think we can expect a stable pricing environment overall.
Sure.
Yeah.
So you talked about mix. Can you just provide a little more color there? And then how should we think of mix as impacting pricing going forward?
Yeah, so, you see, you know, more advanced technologies may have a somewhat higher price-
Mm-hmm.
... than older technologies. That's a mixed dynamic. End markets don't necessarily price exactly the same.
Yep.
That can have a dynamic. I won't get into too much detail there, but, you know, overall it's been pretty stable. I mean, our rough price per wafer is approximately $3,000 a wafer and that's been pretty stable.
Okay, how about the competition? So, you know, you talk to certain foundries, Samsung, for example, they talk about aggressive pricing. TSMC, the total opposite. Every customer there seemingly is seeing their wafer prices going up. Who knows if that's, you know, them just jawboning? What are you guys seeing? How's Global doing on the, you know, pricing versus the competition?
Yeah. Generally stable. I mean, not a lot of change, relative to ourselves and our competition.
Okay.
Yeah.
And then it seems like every week there's a new foundry, you know, sort of popping up in China. You know, do you see this? Is this, like, vaporware? Are they mostly going internal? Is this impacting GF at all?
No, it's really not. I mean, it's multifaceted. You know, China, we don't see a lot of customer sort of migration-
Yeah.
... toward China for obvious reasons, right? I mean, when we think about having a resilient supply chain and-
Yep.
... a dependable foundry operator, or that, you know, that's not gonna be impacted by the geopolitics of the day, et cetera, that's very counter to that, is point number one. Point number two is, as you think about, you know, it's one thing to open a fab in a particular technology. It's something else to have a fully functional, robust, multidisciplinary, you know, foundry that has-
Mm-hmm.
... a wide range of product offerings, and, many of which are automotive qualified.
Yep.
And that takes a while.
Mm-hmm.
... to build that up. That's a strong capability that GF has.
Yeah.
So yeah, really, really not seeing an impact there.
On that note, besides the big kahuna, TSMC, now that you've, you know, been in the driver's seat or I guess the front passenger seat next to Tom, who do you view as your main competition, or who pops up the most besides Taiwan Semi? Is there any particular name on the foundry side?
Yeah, sure.
I'm just curious.
I mean, UMC-
Yeah.
... clearly, would be also a major foundry operator, you know, based in Taiwan. So yeah, it's, it's really UMC.
Okay, interesting.
Yeah.
Let's jump into the LTAs.
Sure.
You know, how are these going to evolve for, you know, GF going forward?
Yeah, it's a great question, and kind of go back to why we got in this in the first place. You know, our activation of long-term agreements really began with customers asking us to secure capacity-
Mm-hmm.
... for them, and in order to do that, we had to invest in additional capability. And with that investment, we asked the customers to join us in that journey and essentially, you know, demonstrate their commitment to the partnership by agreeing to a long-term agreement, which they also wanted. You know, they wanted to have known capacity, known price for a fixed duration so that they could count on that supply.
Yeah.
And that remains in place, so we signed up about $30 billion worth of long-term agreements. Of that, there remains roughly $20 billion still outstanding. You know, so there's been some tail off and some renegotiations and such as the downturn has come in, and we've had some under-utilization payments materialize-
Yeah.
... as a result of that. But that's really an offset to the utilization in the factory-
Yeah.
... that would've otherwise been the case, and that's precisely the reason for those. You know, there's learning along the way. I think going forward you'll see us continue to enter into long-term agreements. We refreshed a long-term agreement with a major automotive customer earlier this year. We announced that. We did another one after that, which we haven't disclosed who it is, but that's yet another one. And that's the type of market where the need for a resilient supply chain very much lends itself to this type of framework.
Mm.
I think you'll see more of these in the automotive market, and given the importance of the automotive growth to our overall strategy, you know, you're gonna see more of it.
Yep.
That said, in some of the more faster-turning consumer markets, I expect you may see less of these going forward.
Okay.
You know, and each era has its own unique characteristics, and what could have made sense in 2021, 2022 may not make as much sense going forward, and there's learning along the way. But, you know, these long-term agreements have served their purpose, and we remain in it with them, and I think we will continue to sign up new ones.
You said there's $20 billion left, right?
That's right.
So, I guess, how much is your, like, typical quarterly coverage from the LTAs?
Yeah, so-
Does it vary?
Yeah, it varies because you've got... Remember, these are, those are lifetime contract values-
Mm.
... that can span from three to four years, all the way out to eight to 10 years.
Oh, okay.
So, you know, it's a mix of duration on how much that may result in coverage, Chris, is the way you describe it.
By the way, so, you know, you were at another company for a long, long time. Did you guys have LTAs there? And, how much of a learning curve has it been for, you know, the CFO? Are you the one negotiating these, or is it, like-
Yeah.
... a big powwow that everybody gets together? How, how does it work?
Yeah, we do. So I won't comment there, but I'll leave that to Silicon Labs to comment. But it's very much a team effort. It's led by sales, it's led by our product lines, who are in the driver's seat of those customer relationships. And then, yes, it comes back to us at the executive level to agree to those and get on the same page about what we're doing with those.
Okay. And you mentioned that some are being renegotiated. Maybe give us some insight into, is it unit, is it price, is it both? What does that depend on?
Yeah, yeah, it varies. It, you know, there's... Each situation is unique, and, you know, a customer may decide they would like to extend for a further amount of time. We may ask for some concessions-
Mm-hmm.
... related to that on either, you know, design wins or volumes, price, et cetera. So-
Yeah.
... it just depends on the situation.
Is everyone, I guess, are all of these renegotiable, or are some of them, like, ironclad and say, you know, tough noogies, if you want to try and renegotiate?
Look, I mean, the key, Chris, is to try to find a win-win-
Yep.
... situation with customers. I mean, we understand that industry dynamics changed. You know, demand is down in some cases, not everywhere, but in some cases demand is down-
Yep.
... and customers are not gonna be able to-
Yep.
... to meet their volume commitments. You know, we understand that, and so, you know, we come to the table with a win-win attitude.
Yep.
You know, we put these in place for a reason. There's a certain, you know, economics on the table that are important to us, but at the same time, we want to, you know, seek to find constructive win-win outcomes for both parties.
Is there a preference between changing price or changing units, or does it all depend? Like, in general.
Yeah.
I'm just curious.
Not really in general, I would say. I'd pause to generalize about it.
Okay.
... just look at each situation.
And then, you know, on the positive side, you guys have seen some benefit from the, I guess you call it penalty payments or something like that.
Under-utilization charge.
Yeah, under-utilization charge.
Yeah.
Is there any way to, you know, sort of predict this? Do you expect this to... I mean, you can only renegotiate so much, right?
That's right.
Will this go away at some point?
That's right.
Has it already gone away?
Yeah. Yeah, I mean, you know, we did, there were roughly six- $60 million of under-utilization payments in the Q2-
Yep.
... that we recognized. We pointed to, approximately half that level-
Yeah.
... for both Q3 and Q4 of 2024. Based on what I see on the table right now, as we head into 2025, it is not gonna go to zero, but we'll be at a level that, you know, won't be as relevant.
That's good.
Yeah.
The renegotiations are-
Yeah.
... really dropping off.
That's right.
Okay, good. So, one of your customers announced a joint venture, NXP-
Mm-hmm.
... is doing a joint venture with Vanguard.
Yeah.
you know, there's some worries out there in the market because NXP obviously is a customer. Is there going to be an impact to GF from this? And was this a surprise to you guys?
Sure.
Yeah.
No, and I don't think so. I mean, this was a, you know, a type of technology that's not really relevant for what we do across multiple dimensions in terms of, you know, those designs themselves-
Mm-hmm.
... as well as the nature of those technologies. We don't really see that as particularly relevant.
So is this a technology that you guys don't do, or is it low margin, or you're de-emphasizing, or can you just give a little more insight as to what you just said?
Yeah, yeah. Just that it's, yeah, not something we offer. It's a piece of the market that's not margin attractive, I would say... and not at the differentiated, specialized, you know, nature of what we do.
That makes sense. If it's low margin and you don't do it, then yeah, why bother? TSMC has also talked about, you know, putting more emphasis on trailing-edge capacity. You know, who knows what that means or if it's even competing with you guys. Any potential impact to GF? Have you seen them get more aggressive in the market out there?
No, not particularly. I mean, look, they're a great company, you know, a tough competitor and all that.
Yeah.
But, I haven't seen near-term near-end evidence of that, I would say.
Great. Let's do a little bit of a shift to manufacturing.
Sure.
Maybe talk about your manufacturing footprint.
Yeah.
What's going to happen over the next year or two years, expansion, contraction, et cetera, et cetera?
You bet. No, we have an excellent footprint. You know, we have foundry operations in Dresden, Germany, in Singapore, and in Malta, New York, and Burlington, Vermont. So we're in Europe, Southeast Asia, and North America. That puts us very well positioned to meet our customers globally where they are, and that's really part of our customer value proposition and strategy. You know, where we're at right now is, we have factories that are underutilized, where our factories are running roughly low to mid-70s in terms of our factory utilization, given the downturn in the overall market that's taken place. So the good news there is we have the ability to significantly grow our revenue without an associated level of high CapEx to fuel that, because the capacity is in.
We have the footprint now globally to operate roughly $9.5 -$10 billion dollar top-line company, and it's really around just continuing to activate more design wins, which we're maniacally focused on, ramping customers, working through the inventory burn, et cetera, to get the utilizations back up into the low- to mid-90s. And then at that point, we can begin talking about additional capacity, you know, new four walls, new equipment buys, to really drive us beyond $10 billion in revenue.
Yeah.
But that's going to take a few years, Chris-
Yeah.
... to see that all play out. So it's, it's exciting, from the perspective of, you know, we've got it. It's just about, you know, scoring the design wins and ramping it up.
Mm-hmm. So a couple things to dig in. East Fishkill, gone.
Yes.
Any additional margin benefits from that, or is that already, like, baked into the cake?
Yeah, it's pretty much already baked in.
And then on the Dresden side, I remember that.
Yeah
... you guys have been trying to bring the margins up there. Is that all done? Maybe give us an update on what's happening over in Dresden.
You know, I mean, it's globally a matter of improving our utilization-
Mm-hmm.
... you know, looking at our input costs, which I've actually seen really amazing work at the company on that, including this year. If you think about how much our utilization has come down from, say, the H1 of 2023, when we were around 90% utilization-
Yeah,
... to now in the low 70s%, we've actually held margins quite well.
Mm-hmm.
... in light of that.
Yeah.
Yes, the, v ery well, underutilization payments have helped, but it's also been, you know, really strong focus from our operations team on looking at our input costs, renegotiating our own inbound contracts-
Mm-hmm.
... with suppliers, et cetera. So a lot of good work already done and will continue to try to improve our gross margins. But yeah, like I... So I, you know, I think overall, you know, we saw this year and anticipated, hey, if we can hold in the mid-20s gross margin in light of this downturn, that's not a bad outcome, and it's happening. We're executing pretty well.
Yeah. Do you think more restructuring is needed? Could we see more restructuring if, you know, we bounce down to the bottom for another couple of quarters, or how do you feel?
No. Yeah, yeah.
How about, on the CapEx plans?
Sure.
Maybe give us a sense of, you know, CapEx last year, this year?
Yes.
And then going forward.
Yeah. You know, again, we had a pretty heavy CapEx cycle in the upturn, and now that's installed.
Yeah.
That's an installed base of capacity for us to fill, and so there's less of a need for us to invest in new capacity. That all said, that doesn't mean it's zero. We estimate roughly $700 million of additional CapEx this year in 2024. Some of it is maintenance, but some of it is also activating, you know, technology transfers between our fabs to get a common, even more of a-
Yeah.
... a uniform footprint of technology across our fabs, for example, and that's roughly, just big picture, about 10% of our revenue.
Mm-hmm.
Right? Going forward, as we can look to more... You know, refill the factories, get the revenue back up to that full promise, then we can look at more CapEx-
Yeah.
... to drive even onward growth, from there.
Do you think that $700 million is sort of a near-term peak for now? Unless, you know, we take off to the races-
I think it's the-
But it sounds like you guys feel pretty good about it.
Yeah, Chris, I would describe that more as a stable level.
Mm-hmm.
You know, 2025 could be roughly the similar amount, you know, perhaps a little more, but roughly a similar amount-
Okay.
... as we look ahead.
And I don't know if you have these numbers offhand, but when should we think of depreciation as peaking? 'Cause I kn.ow some of it . I believe, is a six-year straight line for you guys, and then some of it-
Yeah, so we depreciate equipment over ten years.
Ten years?
Yeah.
Okay.
Ten-year life. So-
Six, ten, what's a few years among friends?
We. So as you know, as we progress through 2025 and get into 2026, we should anticipate some depreciation roll-off beginning to happen.
Oh.
... starting in 2026, really. Yeah.
So depreciation should peak in 2025?
Yeah.
Oh, that's good.
Yeah.
First of all, should we think of, I know you guys have this big project in upstate New York. Is most of the increasing leading-edge capacity, or maybe not leading edge, but most of your increasing capacity gonna go through New York from now on? Or will we see it at other sites as well?
You'll see it globally.
Globally.
Worldwide.
Okay.
Yeah, but certainly, you know, with particularly with the support of the government and the CHIPS funding, we have, you know, specific projects in Upstate New York and Vermont.
Yep.
... so that will be supported by the CHIPS funding.
Excellent segue to my next line of questioning is on the various CHIPS Acts. Before we get to the one in the U.S. there's European CHIPS Acts as well.
Mm.
You know, maybe talk about anything going on over there.
It's early days there. I mean, we have existing frameworks in the European area.
Yep.
But there, you know, potentially some new things coming, but that's- it's early, early to comment on that. And, of course, the government in Singapore has been very supportive of-
Yeah.
... of our capacity expansion there. And now with the U.S. and the CHIPS is right front and center right now.
Yeah. So, let's dig into the U.S. CHIPS Act, maybe especially since we're here in New York. Talk about how much you guys are receiving.
Sure.
How much you've gotten so far.
Right.
Is this all, you know, like, some, like, Publishers Clearing House check in the mail coming in Q4? Is it gonna be spread out?
Yeah.
Is there timelines?
Sure. Yeah, Chris, no, it's the announced amount was $1.5 billion, and that is spread across, you know, really three themes, if you will. One is to diversify the footprint of the Malta fab. The second is to modernize and establish next-gen technologies in the Burlington fab.
Mm-hmm.
And then the third phase of that would be to expand the Malta fab overall. So first is to diversify within the existing footprint of Malta.
Yep.
And then further out in time is to expand Malta. Now, you know, it's. We haven't announced a finalization of the, of the agreement. No funding has been received at this point. And with all of these frameworks, they're oriented around project milestones and actual activation of the company's CapEx that would then be, you know, supported and reimbursed and co-funded from the government. So that's gonna be further out in time. You know, long story short, I wouldn't expect actual CHIPS money until toward the end of next year and heading into 2026.
Oh, really?
Yeah.
End of 2025?
Yeah.
Okay.
Yeah, yeah.
So and then the $1.5 billion, is that straight grants, or is there some loans in there?
That is all grant money, and it is over a multi-year period of time.
Okay.
Yeah.
And then can you talk about the impact to... 'Cause, you know, different companies seem to be thinking of this in different ways.
Mm.
What's the impact to P&L?
Sure.
Does this just, like, straight up offset depreciation-
Yes.
... or offset CapEx?
Yeah.
Is it free money?
Right. It's we will report that as a contra to our CapEx, and it would be depreciated in a similar fashion.
Got it.
So, yeah.
How about the investment tax credit?
Yeah.
Is that benefiting you guys now, later?
Later on the CapEx side, but we are benefiting from the investment tax credit on support costs. That's the AMITC credit that you see in our P&L-
Mm-hmm.
... and SG&A, both in 2023 and also during the H1 of 2024.
Got it.
Yeah.
O.kay.
2024.
CHIPS Act, end of 2025, Europe maybe later than that, depending on what happens?
We'll see. Yeah, it's early for me to comment on that.
And then, you also mentioned Singapore. That's the old, chartered facilities.
Right.
So, is there some sort of CHIPS Act over there, or is that just the general government loans you, or-
There's
Excuse me.
Yeah.
... that,
There's been incentives, associated with that. We do have a loan with the Singapore government of about $1 billion that remains outstanding-
Okay.
... at an attractive interest rate.
So we add all this up in the soup, let's talk about the gross margin drivers.
Sure.
... from here on out.
Yeah.
Maybe list them in order of importance.
Yeah. I mean, number one is factory utilization.
Yep.
You know, we need to get the factory utilization back up. That will improve our gross margin significantly. And then you've also got some depreciation roll-off that can happen over time.
Mm-hmm.
... as we normalize our capacity against the CapEx that's been put in already.
Yep.
And then finally, you've got ongoing cost improvements.
Mm-hmm.
That's been an ongoing thrust-
Yeah.
... from us. And then, and then you've got mix.
Yeah.
We continue to mix toward higher value add, more differentiated technologies, next-generation technologies that can command higher gross margins. That is beneficial as well.
How about on the end market side? You mentioned-
Yeah.
... that certain end markets have different, I guess, margin profiles.
Mm.
And it seems like auto is the one you're most positive on. Is that true? And does the automotive end market have accretive or dilutive or net neutral margins-
Yeah.
... like, from an end market perspective?
Yeah. You know, it's, again, it's really around the utilization and you know, where can we fill the fastest, so to speak. And I do think there's a good opportunity to see that in the automotive market in terms of incremental growth-
Yep.
... that can recover those utilization factors quickly.
And then how does pricing factor into it? Or how do you think pricing will factor into it? Is that as much of a driver?
Yeah, um-
Up or down?
Not as much. I mean, you know, pricing's pretty stable, so it's really around optimizing, you know, what we're doing-
Yep.
... internally. First, utilization, controlling our CapEx, and the other factors I mentioned.
And then in terms of milestones, to get to the margin goals...
Right.
... is there a certain revenue level? Can you share that revenue level with us?
Yeah. I mean, our goal is to achieve 40% gross margin. You know, we laid that out-
Yep.
... a few years ago. That remains our goal, and you can think of roughly a $10 billion revenue level as the right metric to achieve that.
Sorry, I just got to write all this stuff down, and then, you know, I think you are already proving your worth. The OpEx was better than expected last quarter. Maybe talk about the drivers there.
Sure.
What, what's happening, and then what can we expect on OpEx
Yeah.
-going forward?
You know, we've been disciplined in our execution on OpEx, and we also had the benefit of the advanced manufacturing investment tax credit come through.
Right.
A little stronger than we expected.
Mm-hmm.
So that's generally how I'm seeing it, that we anticipate, you know, generally stable OpEx, not seeing a lot of change upward or otherwise. And, you know, we do need to grow OpEx over time. And, you know, my goal would be to grow OpEx at a percentage of our overall revenue and gross margin growth. You can roughly think of it as half, you know, if we're seeing top-line growth-
Growing half as much as done.
Yeah. Yeah, or, or perhaps a bit less.
Okay.
We'll just have to see as we move into 2025, and you know, can comprehend what the demand curve looks like for 2025.
Great. Just want to make sure, are there any questions from the crowd before I... Right here. Wait for the mic.
I apologize if this was already covered. I was a bit late 'cause I waited for the elevator.
Join the club.
I know. When you're doing this transition that you guys just alluded to earlier, right, there's, like, some, you know, legacy FinFET getting offset by new auto volumes.
Right.
How should we think about that evolution? Is it kind of going to take longer, you think, for like, you know, volume utilization to reach the levels that you want? Or do you think it more manifests itself in, like, lower ASP?
No, I think the-
Thank you.
... the FinFET transition is largely behind us, and what we see there is more of a stable outlook in that comms, infrastructure, and data center end market. By the way, another important point to realize when we think about FinFET, that's not the only end market that is served by our FinFET technology. In fact, our smart mobile devices has a significant portion of our FinFET mix is serving the RF transceivers that are going into smart mobile devices. So we can kind of de-link those themes. But yeah, I think that in the CID end market in particular, we think that's generally behind us, and it has stabilized. There's growth ahead in FinFET, and we also continue to add new features to our FinFET offering to, once again, make it even more differentiated.
And yes, to your point, we're seeing automotive offset that, to a constructive extent.
Great. I just wanted to sneak in one quick one, 'cause we do have the CFO here. Balance sheet, debt, usage of cash-
Sure
... anything for us going forward? What are you looking to do?
Yeah. You know, I think we're at a reasonable level of debt. We're at about one times leverage.
Yeah.
I wouldn't see us-
Not much at all, yeah.
... going higher than that without a clear use, like a you know material M&A event or something of that nature, and you know as we're a relatively you know newly public company, we haven't been public for that long, and we're continuing to talk to our board of directors about capital deployment and over time what that might look like, but it's still a bit early for that.
Great. We're out of time. Thanks again, everyone. Thanks, John.
Thanks, guys.