Fireside chat with General Motors. So just to introduce this, I would say we've seen some changes in GM's messaging recently. The most obvious being the increased focus on returns to shareholders. It culminated in a $10 billion share repurchase, almost 25% of the company's outstanding shares. If GM can sustain this level of profitability, we think that there could be another 15%-20% in another year. There's obviously some kind of disconnect here, though, because a 4x PE, when you're concentrating so much capital on reducing the share count, obviously suggests that there's some concern about the underlying earnings sustainability. The counterargument to that, actually, is that GM may be under-earning, because there's so much being invested right now in electric vehicles and in other areas.
So, at the very least, I'm hoping we can tease out that, GM's earnings are more sustainable than the valuation would suggest. So with that, I'm very pleased to welcome, Mary Barra, the company's CEO and chair. Paul Jacobson, Ashish Kohli are in the audience, CFO and Head of Investor Relations. So maybe just first question: On balance, GM actually had a pretty good year last year. Revenue up 10%, EBITDA of $12.4 billion, despite the strike, despite an $800 million charge for a recall, and you're investing a lot in EVs, but you generated $11.7 billion of free cash flow. So pretty good.
Of course, there are things that went right and things that went wrong over the course of the year, and I wanted to ask you, first of all, if you can go back in time, and I'm not talking about ops or, you know, micro things, but strategically, if you can go back in time and make a change or two that would have resulted in a better outcome, what would those things be?
Well, I appreciate it. I mean, I do think last year was a strong year, and I think the strong performance that we've continually been delivering over the last several years. When you look at the strength of our internal combustion engine business, that you know, the portfolio, I think, is one of the strongest portfolios we ever have had. I think that's what's allowing us to have such, you know. And we're always going to be disciplined, you know, to the market. That allows us to keep disciplined from an incentives perspective as well as inventory perspective, and I think that's one of the reasons that our ICE business is so strong. You know, if I could have done a couple of things, you know, I always use the phrase: "When's the best time to plant a tree?
20 years ago. The second best is right now. If I could've gone back, I think recognizing as we manufacturing is a competitive advantage for us, but I think as we were doing manufacturing some new things, I think spending more time in planning and de-risking it, 'cause that's one of the things with our EV production last year, especially off the Ultium platform. And so that would've been something that, you know. And we've really rectified that now, but I think it was like, hey, manufacturing is a core competency, but making modules was something different that we hadn't done, working with different supply base. So I think that would be one issue, and then the second, you know, building out the software team that we did last year.
I think that is gonna be very, very important and really going, in the latter part of the decade, unlock, the software business that we've talked about. But I really now see the foundation there, the discipline that's been in the, in the software development, the validation process, et cetera. So those are two things I think would have strengthened our performance last year, but we've addressed both of them, and that's why this is the year of execution, and, we're on plan.
Okay. So these are areas of focus.
Yes.
Go ing forward. Let's talk about the outlook. So the biggest debate here in this circle is the outlook for EVs. It's gotten pretty intense. The adoption curve has been a little bit shallower than people thought. Pricing has come down. There's even some questions about the level of government support that we're going to be seeing going forward from this. On the other hand, when we look at the regulations, we see California and 14 ZEV states saying you've got to be 30% zero emission by 2026. You've got EPA that's talking about 20% in 2027, possibly. I'm also seeing a lot of the industry sort of following that. If I just look at battery capacity, it was 89 million GWh of battery capacity last year. It'll be 500 GWh by next year. It's enough for 5 million vehicles.
But the consumer may or may not be there, and that's what I'm hoping you can kind of square with us a little bit. So just first of all, what are you actually seeing in the EV market today? Why is it that the consumer isn't there yet? Is it pricing? Is it that the product isn't hitting the mark yet, or are there other things that give you comfort with how this is all kind of coming together?
Well, I think when you're looking at such a major transformation, it's never going to be a straight line. And so, but we definitely believe that EVs will grow, albeit at a slower pace than they were, and I think you've captured some of the reasons. I think one is, having the vehicles be purpose-built for what the consumer wants. I mean, I think I've always said, the consumer is very rational, so they're not going to buy something that doesn't meet their needs, whether it's compromises on range, compromises on performance, and so I think getting the right portfolio out. I think the second is affordability. You know, when you look at where the bulk of the new car buying market is, it's in that, you know, 30, 35, 40 range.
So getting affordable EVs, I think it's one of the reasons we've had such success with the Bolt, although it was our second-generation technology. Then I think another gating factor, though, is the charging infrastructure. And all we know about the charging infrastructure is every quarter, it's going to get better.
Mm-hmm.
So I think those are some of the, the factors. I think when you look at GM specifically, I think we're going to be well-positioned because we have, you know, a lot of very positive reviews about all of our Ultium-based products. When you look at, from a styling perspective, you know, there's no compromise on performance 'cause they're all leveraging the Ultium platform. I think, you know, the other is, you know, we've said on in H2 that we are going to be variable profit positive or neutral, and then getting to our, our positive, and then getting to our goal next year of mid-single digits.
Mm-hmm.
So we're on track with driving that profitability, and I think we'll continue to see adoption grow, but it's gonna be bumpy.
Ultimately, you have to follow the consumer, and we'll see how the products roll out. I know that you're very optimistic about all the things that you have in your pipeline. Does GM have a choice but to pursue this? I mean, when we think about the regulations, that 30% in the ZEV states and what's going on, to sort of follow the consumer. I guess, said another way, if you included that the consumer is higher or lower, do you have the flexibility to modulate your spending or do other things, partnerships or other things, to sort of adjust the cost structure to where the business is?
Absolutely. I mean, but we do have to make sure we've got a plan to meet the, you know, meet the regulations.
Mm-hmm.
You know, I've always said we want to have such, you know, strong demand for our EVs by satisfying the customer. And you started by saying we've got to... Ultimately, the customer decides. Well, if you have the opportunity to drive an EV, I mean, it's, it's better.
Mm-hmm.
If the vehicle meets all of your goals, if you can afford it, if there's robust charging. So as all that moves along, I think we'll see consumers continue to adopt EVs, and I'm very, you know, positive about the EVs that we're going to have out there. But as it relates to, yes, we're going to look and we've already done a lot over the last two years to get be more efficient and trim the portfolio, understanding what the customer wants, so, you know, better capital deployment. And we can adjust that as we see what the consumer wants. But also, you know, two years ago, it was like, "Build everything you can." Now, everybody's.
Again, we have to look a couple of years out, and although it may be this, the line is still going to be going, going north. As you mentioned, all the ZEV states are going to be important, regardless of the outcome of the next election, and so we want to be ready for that, take advantage of that, because that is where the future is, and I think we're going to be well-positioned from a profitability perspective. And then lastly, though, you know, if there's ways that we can partner with others, especially on technologies that are not consumer, consumer-facing, and be more efficient with R&D as well as capital, we're all in.
Mm-hmm. Do you think that there's the potential for regulations to change? If you're doing, I'm not talking about GM specifically, but just broadly for the industry. You guys are doing everything you can. The product is there. Well, do you think there will ultimately be some accommodation on the regulatory side?
You know, it's hard to say. I think right now we're very optimistic of... What we've been asking for is just to harmonize, 'cause if you can meet the very stringent.
Mm-hmm.
EPA goals they've set but still find yourself in a fine position with NHTSA, that makes no sense. And so I think the industry's come together and communicated, and we're optimistic that, you know, the administration is going to address this. Beyond, you know, when you look at, though, it's the latter part of the decade to early next decade, I think everybody's got to be realistic of what consumer adoption is. But I, again, I think we'll have much better pricing. I mean, this year we're going to have the Blazer and the Equinox that get into that range of, where the biggest affordability is, and charging infrastructure will be better. So I think, as I look at it, we need to be ready for that, and we can't.
We're not going to switch something because something's been happening for the last few months, when we've got to make decisions that are two, three, four, five years out.
I want to ask about the way that I'm thinking about EVs and playing into this era question of earnings sustainability. I think that $12 billion-14 billion of EBITDA that you're targeting this year includes $4 billion of losses on EVs. I know you don't disclose it, but I don't think that you've... you're going to generate a variable contribution margin this year. You get to positive by the end of the year, but you're starting negative, you end positive. You have about ten billion dollars of R&D. The majority is AV, EV, and software. We know what the AV part is, 'cause that's Cruise, it's two billion, and we know you have 5,000 engineers, and that's another billion. So it's about $3 billion just in EV R&D, probably. You don't have to nod, but that's what I think.
There's probably some fixed costs associated with running Orion and Hamtramck and all these other things. There's people inside. So they easily could be in that $3 billion-$4 billion range. But then you're saying that you're going to get to positive mid-single digit next year. So that is a big tailwind for the company. So let's say you get to break even, what do you need to see in order to get to that 5. 0 or to 5% next year?
Well, I think, you know, one is scaling, and we've said, you know, this year, to be able to meet our goals, you know, if we make over 200,000, we've said 200,000-300,000 Ultium-based EVs. So scaling is going to be a huge piece of that.
Mm-hmm.
Then, when you look at the costs that we're taking down, continuing to drive battery costs down, I think we're one of the best companies positioned. You know, regardless of what happens in two years, four years, six years related to IRA, we're benefiting from it right now because even before IRA came into being, we had made the decision from a supply chain perspective and battery cell production in this country. So we're well positioned to take advantage of that. And, and again, you're absolutely right. Our earnings power can increase as we get to EV profitability, and I would say we're on track.
Mm-hmm. What, what do you think is the biggest competitive advantages that GM has? It would look to me like you have benchmark costs, if you're actually achieving that, that kind of margin. So maybe you can elaborate a little bit on that, and, and when you're bringing these EVs out, the price point is a big driver, but what are the attributes that you're trying to focus on that you think will make those products successful?
Well, when you look at, you know, the EV portfolio, I... And we're not just recreating the ICE portfolio. We're looking very specific to say: Do we have the right of all the different segments in our industry? C overing the most segments, but also focused on the segments that have the highest volume and the highest revenue generation perspective. And I think that's where we're very well positioned. I think the other thing is, again, with our EVs, you're not having to make trade-offs. I mean, these are- they've got the right performance, they've got the right range, they've got the right functionality from a feature perspective. So when you look at that, I think that's what gives us an advantage. We invested early in the Ultium platform. I know we've got to prove it this year, and we will, and we are.
But I think that's a huge advantage where other companies are in the process and have to frankly go through all the learnings that we did about, you know, putting your own platform together. And when you look at what we did with Ultium, it's scalable, you know, supporting an Equinox all the way up to a super truck like the Hummer. That is giving us an advantage of scale. And so scale is gonna be important, having the right vehicles, because I think that gives us, you know, we're confident- we have confidence in our pricing.
Let me ask you a broader question about competitiveness. One of the observations we made is, GM looks like it's one of the most efficient manufacturers in the industry. So when we look at it, last year, we estimated that Ford had $3,500 per vehicle labor, Stellantis $4,000, you were at $3,100, something like that. Toyota's at $3,100, but with lower... You have a higher labor cost per hour than they do, and you have the same labor cost as them. So that's just a great indication of efficiency. So I don't know if that's well known. You probably know that.
Yeah, and I appreciate you bringing that point up, because it... And you know what? There's still opportunity there. We continue to drive for efficiency, and one of the big things that we've worked on over the last couple of years is simplifying the product, simplifying the build, simplifying, you know, how many options, how many buildable combinations. And frankly, that works for the customer, it helps our dealers, and just, I think it's another thing that causes us to have discipline with our incentives. Because we're not having this, you know, vehicle that's sat too long on the dealer lot.
Mm-hmm
A nd now, you know, it's in everybody's best interest to move it. Manufacturing is a competitive advantage for us, and like I said, we have line of sight to improve it, this year.
On the other hand, you have $1.3 billion of higher labor costs because of this contract. So, I'm hoping you can talk about, from here, just given that reality, what do you need to do to sustain manufacturing competitiveness? Do you see opportunities in some of these things that we're hearing about in automation, open box manufacturing? Is this affecting your business planning going forward? What are, what are you doing going forward to sustain that despite that headwind of higher, higher labor costs?
Everything, you know, everything you said, and I think you're absolutely right. We're looking at: How do we build more efficiently? You know, we have always focused automation on areas where, either, you know, you're causing an ergonomic issue for the employee, or, it's just hard from a quality perspective to get the consistency. And there's a lot changing, you know, in an automation perspective, but I still think the best way to really work on managing labor costs is how you design the vehicle. And whether it's open box, but there, you know, or gigacastings, you've got to make the right decision there. And we actually have a dedicated team working on that cross-functional to look at how do we, as we launch our upcoming plans, how do we drive even more efficiency?
But it starts with how you design the vehicle. And, the work where we have the product engineer and the manufacturing engineer together, starting in design, in the design, studios, I think is gonna yield a lot, because then you, there's no, you don't, you have less to automate.
Mm-hmm.
You're just making the product easier to build, and that gives you more manufacturing efficiency. It also gives you higher quality.
What's the timeline for when we actually start to see that? And is there anything you can share in terms of metrics and targets on what you think you can actually achieve over the next couple of years?
Well, a little bit different, but, you know, just what I talked about before, because simplification.
Yeah
Plays a role. I mean, if you have less main body wiring harnesses into the plant, you know, through the whole system, you didn't have to design it, source it, sequence it into the plant, and get it on the vehicle. So that, we've already said, you know, for this year, we'll save about $200 million from an engineering perspective. And, you know, there's more to be saved. We haven't quantified it or made it public, but I think it's gonna allow us to continue to improve our manufacturing.
Let's switch gears to Cruise. There's been so many major strides in the technology, also challenges. Was wondering if you could maybe address whether your views have evolved on GM's role in AV and rideshare? Obviously, it's an enormous potential market. Requires a lot of capital, requires a lot of attention. But how... Just give us an up-to-date view on what is your perspective on that, and what does GM want to accomplish over the next couple of years?
Yeah, I mean, I think we have an incredibly valuable asset with Cruise and its technology right now. And as we've, you know, been more deliberate, clearly, we could have handled or Cruise could have handled the transparency and dealing with the regulators and first responders better. You know, GM, that's actually something we do very well, so, you know, we've stepped in and are assisting there. So when I look at the tremendous asset we have, we're gonna continue to work on making sure we, you know, keep the critical talent in that role, continue to advance it from a safety perspective.
But as we go, and we've talked about starting in one city and demonstrating the model, and a big part of that starts with building the right regulatory relationships, building the right relationships with first responders, and helping the community understand that this is safer. And we've already demonstrated safer than, you know, an average driver. We'll continue to improve there, but it's safer. When you think about the opportunity for people who, for whatever reason, can't drive today, giving them mobility, there are huge benefits to autonomous technology that I believe as we get, you know, farther along, is gonna be a huge opportunity from a personal autonomous vehicle perspective. So we have a very important asset. We're in the, you know, the reports came out.
We, you know, we're transparent about what we learned with the Quinn Emanuel Report. The assessment that was done by Exponent on the technology, which I think is very, very positive. We, you know, what we thought happened from a technology perspective, we understand that, and that allows us to continue to improve. So, you know, we're working that plan. In, you know, the next couple months, I think you'll hear us come out with a plan that's more deliberate, and is going to not just be solely technology-focused, but really helping people understand the benefit. And, you know, you want to get to a point where a community is like: I want you here, 'cause you're improving, you know, the quality of life for the people who live in my city or municipality.
Yeah. I totally agree with you on everything that you said about the benefits of the technology and where you are, and that you need to be in that. But there's the technology as it applies to GM vehicles, and then there's also the business of rideshare and making that a global enterprise. Is that second part something that you're still committed to, or is that kind of a TBD? 'Cause what you're doing now and demonstrating is much more focused. Is that really gonna be part of GM's role in the future?
Well, you know, we're evaluating what the right go-forward plan is that's right for General Motors and, you know, leveraging this, you know, the investment that we've made in this.
Mm
Asset that I think, again, we're either a leader or among the very few leaders-
Mm-hmm.
W ith the advancements that we've made. So I don't have anything specific to share right now, but we're looking at what is gonna be the best, best path to unlock value, not only for the General Motors shareholder, 'cause we're the majority owner, but also the Cruise shareholders.
Okay.
You'll hear more from us in the upcoming months.
Well, I guess the question that investors are asking is, there's the company's placing a lot of scrutiny on where it's investing capital and where the returns are going to be, and there's probably more questions about that aspect of it than many of the other things that you're involved in. The assumption or the question that we get a lot is, well, this is the level of spending that we see right now, $1.5 billion or so, but it could easily go back up over the next couple of years. Do you think that that's an appropriate framework for investors?
I think what investors have to have to think about is we're gonna make investments that, you know, we invest to generate the right return for our owners, our shareholders. So as we look at what is the best way to create value with this asset and also strengthen our business for the longer term, 'cause I think this technology is, I believe, as we move forward in the next handful of years, will be table stakes of what customers expect and, you know, from a safety benefit across the board. So that's we're being very thoughtful as we do that work right now, but I would tell investors, we're not going to. We're gonna deploy money that we believe is gonna generate an appropriate return.
Mm-hmm.
We'll stop.
Yep. That
I think we have a reputation that if we're doing something and we feel, you know, the market's changed, the situation's changed, we're not gonna just... We're gonna adjust our strategy. I think we've demonstrated that, and I think the discipline we have on capital allocation with where we compete, you know, what we did with , how we've trimmed the portfolio this year, I think they should look at that track record.
Yep, makes sense. I'd like to ask you about software. Maybe just at a high level, it's critical to your future products. You're putting a lot of money into developing software, and the Ultifi platform. Maybe just give us a kind of a high-level view on what are your learnings at this point? What is the plan at this point for that business?
Yeah, this is one of the areas I'm as I said earlier, I you know wish I would've brought in the team that we have now earlier, but they're here now have completely. And it's Mike Abbott, but he's brought in just an incredible team. We've hired people from Google, from Apple, from , many, many tech companies, and they're excited to come because of the mission. And they see the opportunity. I mean, they say, "You guys have got great vehicles. We know software." And so we've already revamped the software development process and more importantly, the validation process. And so with that, you know, as we implement that process with every future vehicle, you know, I think we're gonna have software that exceeds customers' expectation.
I think it's the way for us to differentiate from a customer experience perspective. So I'm very excited about it. You know, right now we're going through a little bit of a learning pains as we make this transition, but the robustness of what the system is now, of how we'll do software, and I've spent a lot of time with the team. I'm 100% confident we've got the right direction.
So this, you feel, is going to be a competitive advantage of General Motors going forward?
Absolutely. Absolutely.
I want to ask about China, so switching gears again. So we're constantly hearing that the Chinese are able to produce vehicles for 30% less than Western companies. We hear that from automakers around the world. What happens to GM in China, where you're producing and presumably have a kind of a more level cost structure? What do you think ultimately that market looks like, and what learnings are you bringing from that operation into the rest of General Motors?
Well, for years we've been looking at, you know, what are the strengths, opportunities, what we've learned in China, and bringing that back. I think, though, when you look at the Chinese market, it's very different than it was five years ago. You know, when you look at the number of domestic companies that are.
Mm
Producing EVs. But we also, there's gonna be an adjustment there because the number, there's only a handful of companies that are profitable. It from a, you know, a domestic per-
Yeah, that's right.
perspective, that can't go on indefinitely. So there's going to be a sorting. But I think when you look at, you know, where we play and the strength of our brands, I think it's more-
Mm-hmm
... on, I'll say, the premium or luxury side. And then, of course, we have the investment in SGMW, and I think they, you know, compete very, very well at the, at the very price sensitive parts of the segment. So I think, I think it'll be a different role that we play, but when you look at the strength and the, the growth potential in China, I think it's a market that we wanna play in appropriately, and I do think it's more at the premium and the high end.
Okay. Is there anything that you're taking out of China and bringing into the rest of the organization?
Well, we regularly benchmark. You know, we've been over there several times now. Travel's opened back up, and looking at, you know, what are, what are the features. I mean, I think the changes we're making in software, I think are gonna be very important. But I also... You also have to look at, a lot of the technology in China is in China, for China, by China intent, whether. And when you look at, you know, privacy, when you look at, you know, how autonomous technology, it's China. Even, you know, as a global player, your technology in China is China-based. And so, I, I think that's gotta be better understood, of how that plays around the world. But of course, we're, we're looking, and I think I don't discount any OEM.
If there's something we can learn, if they're doing it better, you know, we're gonna work to implement that. So, but I think, you know, there's some things that are just structurally different for China in China than it will be around the rest of the world.
Makes sense. You did mention that you're bringing some of the hybrid technology that you have in China into the North American market to diversify the product portfolio in the next couple of years as well.
Because of the changes that we've seen from a regulatory environment, so in-
Right
... definitely.
Mm-hmm. A lot of debate about the pricing environment and price normalization. And I think a lot of, a lot of people who look at this industry just see the aberrational environment over the past couple of years, with this 30% increase in average transaction prices. What are your thoughts on what normalization will look like? And are there any reasons why GM should outperform the broader market?
I think if you just look at where we are in incentives, as you know, as we're getting to more normalized, and Paul shared on the earnings call, you know, we built in 2%-2.5%, from a pricing-
Mm-hmm.
... a down perspective. But that, we're not as... You know, we're prudent in the way we put our plan together and give guidance. If that doesn't happen, then that's just, you know, profitability that, you know, we can continue to return to shareholders. Where I think we're unique, and it's already being proven out, is, you know, we're number two from an incentives perspective. We're below industry average. And this is coming out of COVID, and I think on the strength of our ICE and what will be our EV portfolio, and I think we've priced right, you know, as we are putting these products out there. So I think what is gonna give GM the opportunity and the advantage is the strength of our portfolio-
Mm-hmm.
... and the, you know, the customer interest.
Do you think that you would outperform that, and then based on what you see today? I mean, you're starting out at a fairly level pricing.
Right. But I would say, I think we're outperforming today based on where our incentives are-
Yeah
... compared to the rest of the market.
Yeah. Great. Let me open it up to the floor if there are any questions. A couple more. Go in the back, Julian.
Thank you. Just to, just appreciate you coming and talking to us today. Appreciate, the thoughts as well. Could you just... What you could tell us about kind of what's next for Cruise, whether it be in California, elsewhere? How do you think that timeline plays out with, with what you know and, and what's in front of you? Thanks.
Well, I mean, we're working. I think one of the important steps is wherever we deploy, and we've talked about, as I said, deploying in one city, it'll be working with the regulatory environment. That varies widely state to state. There's, you know, some states that have it at the state level versus allowing it to be at the municipality level, which I think is going to be important. So I don't have a specific announcement to make today, but in the, you know, pretty near future, I think we'll be signaling where we're going to deploy, you know, yet this year. So more to come.
Anything else?
Let's talk about the, Oh, here.
Five years out, where do you-
So five years from now?
... Yes, same question again.
Yeah. Mm-hmm.
Well, I think, you know, that's the strategic work that we're doing right now, so I don't want to get ahead of that. Just only to say that I do believe that technology is very important for the industry, and I think the position we have, it's a true asset, and we've got to work to how are we gonna deploy that, to generate the most value creation?
Matthew, in the middle of the room. Let's wait for the mic.
Thank you very much. So we're talking about manufacturing. GM just bought some gigacasting competency and so on, then you talked about unboxed and how you're integrating, looking at things cross-functionally. Tesla is way ahead, is way ahead with the modular approach, and so on. What is kind of your timeline for implementation on this, in this new approach to manufacturing, and so on?
Well, I think, you know, we, with every new product, we can implement more, and in some cases, we're going back and maybe updating what we have in an existing product. So I don't think it's like, you know, wait two years and boom, it's there. It's gradually happening right now with every opportunity as we deploy capital. Clearly, the biggest opportunity is we launch a new vehicle. You know, one of the reasons we delayed Orion a year for our next battery electric truck platform is we saw areas where we could be more efficient, and we wanted to you know, deploy the capital more efficiently and launch it right to begin with. And so, but there, there's things happening right now today of driving that efficiency into the vehicle.
You know, as we look at what is the right structure between gigacasting and why it's, it's a system. You know, you can't just look at how easy it is to build the first time, you also have to look at repairability. Because insurance is, you know, if your insurance costs are so high from a replacement perspective, that all factors into the cost of ownership. You know, we have a lot of expertise already in gigacasting, you know, from when the CT6 all the way now to what's happening on the Celestiq. So, you know, our team very much knows how to do that. We're looking to optimize it across all factors, not just one.
When we heard Jim Farley this morning, he was all about Pro and the focus on Pro as a growth vehicle. Given that GM has-
Yeah
... just as much, if not, you know, more presence in the fleet side, with your trucks, do you see a similar strategy for sure GM as well?
Well, absolutely. I mean, we have a very strong commercial business. We've just pulled it all together with GM Envolve, and that is a competitive opportunity for us as well. And I think, with the EV products that we're going to have, across our commercial fleets, I think that's gonna be a strength and a differentiator for us as well.
How big is the commercial vehicle business for General Motors? 'Cause it seems like that's just a huge profit center for the company.
It's a very important part, and-
Heavy-duty trucks.
Absolutely. And we haven't broken out specifically, but it's a very, it's a very significant piece. And I think as we go forward, we can talk about that more, 'cause I think we have a leadership position there.
Are you just at a high level, are you sort of feeling very good about the outlook for that business because of all the infrastructure spending and all the things that, that we're hearing about broadly in that space? Is that something that you're looking at for the North American business that might be underappreciated as a source of strength?
It is a source of strength today, when we look across, and I think it will only get stronger. You know, as we look at our different fleet customers and have software that helps them, you know, manage their fleet better, as well as start to blend in EVs where it makes sense. And, you know, the EVs we have, whether... You know, we launched the Silverado with the Work Truck.
Mm-hmm.
Because, talking to our fleet customers, knowing what they want, the solutions we're helping them with charging, you know, and planning. So I think that business will only continue to grow. Because even with some of the EV, the EV piece of it, I mean, the ICE piece is very, very strong today and will continue to be, but on the EV piece of it, even when you look at maybe, you know, a slowing or slower growth of EVs from a retail perspective, virtually every company has set goals from a carbon perspective. So I think that gives us a big opportunity as well.
Let me ask about the IRA, because that's it, we're debating this, and where does this go, right? You've got, let's say a 50/50 election at this point. And if it goes one way, then, you know, if it goes Republican, then you could see extension of the Trump tax cuts. There's gonna be some focus on how do you pay for that, and IRA seems to be a big focus for in those circles on the pay-for side. On the other hand, GM seems to be so well-positioned to benefit from the IRA, with domestic manufacturing, the sourcing came together really quickly. So your team did a remarkable job of really kind of positioning the company better than just about anybody else. I think that GM's the only company that across the board is now qualifying.
What is your view on that, and how does that affect, GM's strategy?
Well, first, I have to give all the credit to, to Paul here, because Paul has led this activity, working... Because it's more than just a purchasing and supply chain, it really is from, you know, where we've done partnerships, investments, et cetera. So I, I think we do, to your point, have a very well-thought-out strategy that's allows us... But remember, we were on that path even before IRA.
Right.
If you had asked me a month before IRA was passed, I would've said, "I don't think it's gonna happen." So that was our strategy anyway. So, you know, I think we're well-positioned. While there's all this debate about what's going to happen, depending on what happens in the election, we're already seeing the benefits of it, I think, pretty significantly compared to virtually every other car company, as you mentioned. So our goal, though, we always viewed IRA as a transition. It wasn't going to last for forever.
Mm-hmm.
And so, you know, I think the work that we're gonna continue to do to improve once we get profitability next year, to continue to improve it, will just de-risk whatever's gonna happen with IRA.
Let's talk about, just to bring this all together, three most important targets for General Motors this year. What are the things that you're focusing on the most to deliver that you think we should be watching?
I'll do what you do on the analyst call, and I'll have a couple of parts to each, each-
Sure
The three. But, you know, when you look at our strategy, it's continue to generate the strong, strong performance in our ICE business, demonstrate the strength of Ultium, which is gonna allow us to get to our profitability goals for this second half of this year and next. It's the right software, and we've talked about that, in the vehicles. And then fourth, though, it's relaunching Cruise appropriately to create shareholder value. So when we do all of that, that's gonna enable us to meet our commitment from a guidance perspective across revenue, across EBITDA, and across free cash flow, which I think is going to be very, very important. And then, you know, appropriately, recognize and reward our shareholders for that. So, I mean, this is a year of execution for us. I'm really excited.
Like I said, you know, I know we're only six weeks in, but we're six weeks on track.
Mm-hmm.
This is gonna be a really, I think, high-performance year for GM.
What's the hardest thing? What is the biggest challenge that you've got in the next 12 months that where you'd say, "Look, if there's gonna be some risk that would be noticeable, this is where it would come from"?
I think, you know, the good thing and what I like about it is where I think we have the opportunity, it's stuff that's within our control.
Mm-hmm.
It's getting the vehicles out there and right, and getting the software. In the short term, you know, we're working through some challenges we have, but I'm confident we'll get through that with the team we have, and then it's ours to execute. So, you know, obviously, if there's macro changes, we know this is an industry, and I think we've also demonstrated the agility to respond to what... You know, if something happens and there's more opportunity in EVs or there's more opportunity in ICE, we can toggle. I mean, Spring Hill can build EVs, it can build ICE.
Right.
We have the opportunity where we can, you know, crank up in some of our plants, our ICE production. You know, we can add shifts at Factory ZERO, et cetera. So I think we're really well-positioned for what's unknown of what's gonna happen this year from a transformation perspective. We'll turn those dials and, you know, meet our guidance.
What do you think will surprise investors the most? You—you're hearing, Paul, Ashish—and you are talking to investors all the time. You're hearing all the same questions that I'm asking. When you think about what you're able to do versus what-where those questions, or doubts, or concerns are, what would be the things that you would point to?
I think the biggest thing that we need to demonstrate, because last year we didn't, so it, you know, and I own that, is we've got to demonstrate, that we can build Ultium-based products, and the market wants them, and we, you know, we can achieve our profitability goals. Because if you think about it, as we go, you know, even though we've said by 2035, our light duty portfolio will be all EV, we'll be guided by the consumer.
But the strength of our ICE business, you know, next year and working toward profitability on our EV business with the right software, and then the addition of how we or leverage the investment we have in Cruise, I think we're uniquely positioned to really, you know, re-rate the company based on performance this year, and that's why I like the fact that it's in our control.
Mm-hmm. And capital returns, those continue?
We've said, you know, we have a goal that we want to get. We are working just to get our share count down. We'll continue to do that. You know, when you look at the last handful of years, it was COVID, then it was semiconductor shortages, and then it was all the supply-based challenges. I think pretty quickly when we saw the business getting to, I'll say at a new sense of normal, we did the ASR.
Mm.
You know, we're gonna keep that capital discipline. Our capital allocation framework hasn't changed. We're optimizing and making sure we're spending the right amount of money of reinvesting in the business to generate the right returns, keep a strong balance sheet, and then the rest is gonna be returned to our shareholders.
Great. Very clear. Well, thank you very much, Mary-
Thank you.
... Paul and Ashish. Great to see you.
Thank you.
Great. Thank you.
Thanks. Appreciate the opportunity.